宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 28 日 | 陈至奕 | 021-63325888*6044 | | --- | --- | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | 曹靖楠 | 021-63325888*3046 | | | caojingnan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860520010001 | | 孙国翔 | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | 积极迎战外部风险——4 月政治局会议解 读 2025-04-26 消费增长的量价拆解——月度宏观经济回 顾与展望 研究结论 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并 ...

Core Viewpoint - Blue Universe Co., Ltd. (蓝宇股份) continues to demonstrate strong growth in revenue and net profit in its first annual report post-IPO, with net profit exceeding 100 million yuan, reflecting its robust position in the digital inkjet ink industry and commitment to green transformation in textile dyeing [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved approximately 478 million yuan in revenue, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.72%, and a net profit of approximately 101 million yuan, up 8.44% year-on-year, marking its first time surpassing the 100 million yuan threshold [2][3]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 32 million yuan, which accounts for 31.84% of its net profit for the year [5][6]. Industry Position - Blue Universe is one of the leading manufacturers of digital inkjet inks in China, focusing on the research, production, and sales of inks that align with national energy-saving and environmental protection strategies [2][3]. - The digital inkjet ink industry in China is characterized by a late start and a predominance of small to medium-sized enterprises, but Blue Universe has emerged as a strong player due to its comprehensive capabilities and technological advancements [2][3]. Research and Development - The company invested approximately 22.14 million yuan in R&D in 2024, an increase of 10.37% year-on-year, and has developed over 3,000 formulations of water-based digital inkjet inks suitable for various printing applications [3][6]. - Blue Universe has established a strong R&D team led by returning overseas PhD graduates and has achieved performance metrics for some products that meet or exceed those of imported counterparts [3][6]. Future Outlook - The company aims to enhance its innovation capabilities and reduce reliance on imported products, while also expanding production capacity to increase market share in the digital inkjet ink sector [6][7]. - Blue Universe is committed to achieving international standards in technology, scale, efficiency, management, talent, and service, positioning itself for continued growth in 2025 [6][7].

在扩大投资方面，将工业软件等更新升级纳入"两新"政策支持范围，加快消费基础设施、社会领域投 资，制定实施充电设施"倍增"行动，支持城区常住人口300万以上的城市特别是超大特大城市建设停车 位。力争6月底前下达2025年"两重"建设和中央预算内投资全部项目清单，同时设立新型政策性金融工 具，解决项目建设资本金不足问题。 在畅通循环方面，加快建设全国统一大市场，开展为期半年左右的市场准入壁垒清理整治行动，加快出 台民营经济促进法，帮助外贸企业拓内销；同时，加快科技创新和产业创新深度融合，设立国家创业投 资引导基金，推进人工智能与60个重点行业方向、700个基础场景深度融合。 作为全球第二大经济体和拥有14亿多人口的大国，我国扩大内需有巨大的潜力和空间，而且都是非常现 实的需求。赵辰昕表示，消费领域，我国汽车保有量3.53亿辆，冰箱、洗衣机、空调等主要品类家电保 有量超过30亿台，按照正常周期更新换代，每年能创造数万亿元的需求。投资领域，我国全社会设备存 量资产净值约40万亿元，随着高质量发展深入推进，每年的设备更新换代投资需求将超过5万亿元。据 机构测算，2024年中国人工智能产业规模突破7000亿元，已连续多年 ...

你购买过"国补"产品吗？15%~20%的优惠，看上去的确很诱人。 南大戏文专业的原石同学最近发现电脑剪辑视频越来越卡顿，她觉得有必要换一台新的。因为家人去年年底换过一部新手机，享受了国补优 惠。所以她去一家提供国补优惠的门店买了新电脑，比原价便宜了两千元左右。 "唯一遗憾的是没买到喜欢的颜色"，在国补政策的加持下，线下店生意火爆。 线下店生意火爆（俞汶希 摄） 政策落地：国补激发市场活力 "国补"是国家为鼓励特定产业发展、促进民生消费而推出的财政补贴措施。最早可追溯到2009年，最初主要补贴领域是新能源汽车，消费者购 买符合条件的产品时，可享受价格减免，或通过申报获得资金返还。当时政策的主要目的是推动节能减排和新能源产业发展。 到2024年，政策范围扩大到了家电领域，涵盖冰箱、洗衣机、空调等8类家电产品，推动了家电行业的绿色转型和消费升级。2024年3月13日， 国务院印发《推动大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新行动方案》，针对推动大规模家电设备更新换代和消费品以旧换新，提出重点实施设备更 新、消费品以旧换新、回收循环利用、标准提升"四大行动"。 2024年消费品以旧换新政策取得了良好成效。据国家发展改革委数据， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing various measures to stabilize employment and boost economic growth, with a focus on enhancing consumer spending and addressing external risks. Group 1: Economic Growth and Consumer Spending - In the first quarter, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.6% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous year. March saw a growth of 5.9%, the fastest monthly increase since last year. The contribution rate of consumption reached 51.7%, up by 7.2 percentage points from the previous year [1][3]. Group 2: Policy Measures to Enhance Consumption - The Ministry of Commerce plans to introduce detailed measures to enhance consumption's role in economic growth, focusing on four key areas: 1. **Trade-in Programs**: The budget for trade-in programs has doubled to 300 billion yuan, expanding support categories from 8 to 12, including new subsidies for digital products. As of April 27, over 281.4 million vehicles and 49.4 million home appliances have been traded in, generating over 720 billion yuan in sales [3][4]. 2. **Automobile Consumption Reform**: The Ministry will support pilot programs for automobile consumption reform, encouraging innovation in new and used car markets, and optimizing purchase restrictions to meet consumer demand [4]. 3. **Service Consumption Improvement**: Initiatives to enhance service consumption include a 2025 action plan and various programs aimed at promoting health and tourism services, with a notable increase in senior tourism train services [5]. 4. **"Buy in China" Campaign**: Launched on April 13, this campaign aims to promote local shopping and tourism, targeting both domestic and international consumers [5].

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of several measures will provide strong support for the economy, promoting stable and healthy development while maintaining social stability [2] Group 1: Economic Policies - The Chinese government will accelerate the implementation of more proactive macro policies in response to increasing external shocks [2] - Key measures include supporting employment, stabilizing foreign trade, promoting consumption, expanding effective investment, and creating a stable development environment [2] - These measures are designed to enhance the sense of gain for enterprises and the public, with a focus on practicality and operability [2] Group 2: Domestic Demand Expansion - A significant focus is on boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand to counter the complex international environment [4] - Specific strategies include increasing the income of middle and low-income groups, promoting consumption, and expanding effective investment [4] - The government has allocated over 160 billion yuan for the second batch of consumption subsidies, with additional funds planned for various consumer sectors [4] Group 3: Employment Support - The employment situation remains stable, with 3.08 million new urban jobs created in the first quarter, an increase of 50,000 year-on-year [6] - The unemployment rate averaged 5.3% in the first quarter, below the expected control target [6] - Policies are being implemented to support job creation, particularly for vulnerable groups affected by external shocks [6] Group 4: Foreign Trade Support - Measures will be introduced to help foreign trade enterprises cope with external risks, including accelerating the integration of domestic and foreign trade [7] - The 137th Canton Fair saw participation from 224,000 overseas buyers, indicating strong international interest [7] - The government will enhance public information services for foreign trade enterprises, providing insights into international business environments and market conditions [7]

在电动自行车领域，市民的参与热情高涨。在雅迪电动车门店，"家电以旧换新"的宣传横幅十分醒目。 雅迪电动车商户 康海英 阿克塞县电信营业厅客户经理 刘润梅： 自推行以旧换新政策以来，消费市场呈现出蓬勃发展的新态势。眼下，新一轮"以旧换新"国补政策全面铺开，全县掀起"换新"潮，有效激发了市民的消费 热情，为经济增长注入强劲动力。 随着甘肃省3C数码产品购新补贴政策正式上线实施。县内各数码产品经营店把"国补"专区作为促销活动的亮点，电信公司、移动公司分别推出一系列福 利促销活动，与"国补"政策叠加，吸引了众多消费者的目光。"以旧换新"拉动消费作用显著。 国家给予一次性500元定额补贴。客户提供旧车车架号、电池编码等给我们车行，我们车行开回收证明后进行补贴，最近客流量也比较大，消费者都冲着 补贴而来，更好地促进了我们电动车行业的销售。 记者走访了县域内各大家电、电动自行车消费市场，"以旧换新""享国家补贴"等活动开展得热火朝天，为进一步打好促进消费"组合拳"，各商户结合本地 市场需求，把更多产品纳入了补贴范围。 为了让更多市民了解并享受以旧换新政策，阿克塞县工信局等相关部门通过线上线下多种渠道进行宣传推广，同时简化补 ...

截至4月21日，深圳市通过以旧换新带动汽车销售3.9万台，销售金额97.7亿元；通过以旧换新带动家电 和数码产品销售619.8万台，销售金额117.5亿元；电动自行车以旧换新销售金额1674.1万元。(南方财经) ...

中金研究 3月，社零总额同比增长5.9%，为2024年以来最高单月增速，主要受以旧换新政策的短期提振。我们的估算显示，年初以来以旧换新进展逐步加快，一 季度4类商品财政补贴规模约为645亿元，其中3月约391亿元。政策效果方面，我们估计3月补贴政策对4类商品消费的当期乘数可能在2.8以上。但历史 经验显示，耐用品补贴政策具有透支效应，长期累计乘数会动态减弱，且对同期的其他消费形成一定挤压。我们认为，在贸易形势不确定性大幅上升 的背景下，更要注重"投资于人"，加大对民生领域（比如生育、养育、住房、养老等社会保障）的支持。 点击小程序查看报告原文 截至4月中旬，商务部已披露的4类消费品以旧换新进度如下： （1）汽车方面，截至4月10日零时，汽车以旧换新补贴申请223.2万份，其中汽车报废更新 补贴申请74.7万份，汽车置换补贴申请148.5万份。（2）家电方面，截至4月10日，消费者累计购买以旧换新家电产品3759万台。（3）数码产品方面，截 至4月6日，消费者申请手机、平板、智能手表（手环）3类数码产品购新补贴6486.6万件。（4）电动自行车方面，截至4月11日，电动自行车以旧换新交 售旧车、换购新车各352 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant growth in consumer electronics sales driven by the "trade-in" policy, particularly in home appliances, with 35.7 million units sold and sales reaching 124.74 billion yuan as of April 8 [1] - Various local governments are implementing consumption expansion policies to support the trade-in of home appliances, utilizing multiple layers of subsidies to stimulate consumer spending [1][2] - The introduction of community service stations in Shanghai facilitates the trade-in process, offering a one-stop solution for consumers to purchase new appliances and dispose of old ones conveniently [2] Group 2 - AI-powered smart appliances are gaining popularity among consumers, with significant discounts and features attracting buyers, leading to a notable increase in sales [3] - The smartphone market is shifting towards mid-to-high-end products, with AI functionalities becoming a focal point for consumers, resulting in a 20% increase in smartphone sales in certain regions [4] - Other digital products like tablets and smartwatches are also experiencing sales growth due to the trade-in and promotional activities [5][6] Group 3 - The automotive market is seeing a revival due to enhanced trade-in policies, with 2.085 million applications for vehicle trade-in subsidies recorded as of April 8 [7][9] - Events showcasing smart and electric vehicles are attracting consumer interest, with many buyers motivated by the available subsidies [7] - Companies in the vehicle dismantling industry are optimizing their services to accommodate the increased volume of trade-ins, with plans for new facilities to improve efficiency [8][9]