Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for Yadea Holdings (01585.HK) [6][29] Core Insights - Yadea Holdings is expected to face revenue and profit declines in 2024 due to national inspections and inventory reduction, with a projected revenue of 28.24 billion yuan, down 18.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.27 billion yuan, down 51.8% [1][8] - The company aims to recover in 2025 by enhancing new product development and expanding its store network, with expectations of improved sales and profits [3][29] - The company is actively expanding into the Southeast Asian market, which is anticipated to become a new growth curve, with production capacity in Vietnam and Indonesia expected to reach 3 million units annually [3][28] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Yadea's gross margin is projected to be 15.2%, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin is expected to be 4.5%, down 3.1 percentage points [2][17] - The company has maintained a high level of R&D investment, with R&D expense ratio increasing to 4.1% in 2024, up 0.6 percentage points from 2023 [2][19] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2025 is set at 37.27 billion yuan, representing a 32% increase, with net profit expected to rebound to 2.70 billion yuan, a 112.4% increase [4][29] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 0.87 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 16 for 2025, 14 for 2026, and 12 for 2027 [4][29] Market Strategy - Yadea held a global retail summit in December 2024 to outline its development plans for 2025, focusing on technology innovation, product manufacturing, brand marketing, and retail upgrades [3][21] - The company launched the "Modern" series of new vehicles in February 2025, targeting female consumers and addressing product gaps [3][22] Southeast Asia Expansion - Yadea's strategy includes significant investments in Southeast Asia, with a new factory in Indonesia expected to enhance production capabilities to 3 million units annually [3][28][31]

Market Size - The electric two-wheeler industry is expected to experience double-digit growth in sales in 2025, with an average price increase of approximately 3% due to national subsidies [1] - Historical trends show rapid growth from 2005 to 2013, a decline from 2014 to 2019, and a recovery from 2019 to 2023, driven by increasing ownership and the introduction of the new national standard in 2019 [1] - The 2025 national subsidy policy for trade-ins is anticipated to further stimulate demand, especially in provinces with room for increased subsidy levels compared to Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Hubei [1] Competitive Landscape - The industry is becoming increasingly concentrated, with leading brands benefiting from product definition and technological innovation [2] - Yadea has significantly increased its market share by correctly identifying consumer demand for mid-to-high-end products and expanding its sales network [2] - The first tier of brands includes Jike, Niu, and Ninebot, while the second tier includes Aima and Yadea, and the third tier includes Luyuan and New Day [2] Profitability - The industry is expected to raise prices and improve profit margins in response to the new national standard and new models, benefiting all companies [3] - Yadea and Aima, with high market shares, are likely to see greater performance improvements from enhancing profitability rather than merely increasing market size [3] - The industry is focusing on product upgrades to boost gross margins in the short term, while long-term profitability will be enhanced through channel reforms [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Weichai Power (2338 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 20.50, indicating a potential upside of 31.4% from the current price of HKD 15.60 [1][6][8]. Core Insights - Weichai Power's engine profits have shown strong growth, with a record high dividend payout ratio of 55%. The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 0.8% in 2024, reaching RMB 215.7 billion, driven by improved gross margins and a net profit increase of 26.5% to RMB 11.4 billion [2][6]. - The report highlights several catalysts for growth, including new subsidies to boost heavy truck demand, strong growth in data center engines, and robust demand for natural gas heavy trucks [6][10]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Weichai Power are as follows: - 2023: RMB 213.96 billion - 2024: RMB 215.69 billion (0.8% YoY growth) - 2025E: RMB 237.92 billion (10.3% YoY growth) - 2026E: RMB 254.83 billion (7.1% YoY growth) - 2027E: RMB 269.35 billion (5.7% YoY growth) [3][10]. - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: RMB 9.01 billion - 2024: RMB 11.40 billion (26.5% YoY growth) - 2025E: RMB 14.64 billion (28.4% YoY growth) - 2026E: RMB 16.19 billion (10.6% YoY growth) - 2027E: RMB 17.77 billion (9.8% YoY growth) [3][10]. - The report notes a significant improvement in gross margin, which is expected to reach 22.4% in 2024, up from 21.1% in 2023 [11]. Market Position and Performance - Weichai Power's market share in the domestic heavy truck engine market is 38.7%, with a strong performance in high-end markets such as data centers, where sales of M-series engines grew by 148% [6][10]. - The company has maintained a stable market share despite a 5% decline in overall commercial vehicle demand in the domestic market [6][10]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides the following valuation metrics: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025E is projected at 11.5x, with a corresponding dividend yield of 6.6% [6][10]. - The book value per share is expected to be RMB 8.73 in 2025E, with a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 2.4x [3][10].

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the trade-in and subsidy policies in 2025 has significantly boosted consumer spending and improved living standards, particularly in the electric two-wheeler industry, with companies like Yadea leading the response to these initiatives [1][4]. Group 1: Policy Impact - The new subsidy policies have expanded to include digital products and vehicles, enhancing consumer engagement and driving retail growth in various sectors, with significant increases in sales figures for communication equipment and furniture [2]. - The electric two-wheeler industry has seen a positive response to the trade-in policy, with over 204.4 million electric bicycles exchanged, generating sales of 5.61 billion yuan and benefiting over 200,000 consumers [2][4]. Group 2: Company Response - Yadea has actively participated in the national subsidy program, offering additional discounts to consumers, which has led to a surge in sales, particularly for their stylish and high-quality models [6][9]. - The company has introduced a "national subsidy quick check" feature to help users navigate local policies and store information, enhancing customer experience [9]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - Yadea is recognized as a leader in R&D within the industry, focusing on innovative battery technologies and smart manufacturing to drive the transition towards a more sustainable electric vehicle market [11][13]. - The integration of technology, service, and subsidies has created a tangible sense of benefit for consumers, demonstrating how policy can effectively translate into productive outcomes [13]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The electric vehicle industry is expected to play a crucial role in achieving China's dual carbon goals while contributing to economic growth, with Yadea positioned to leverage policy advantages for global competitiveness [13].

Core Viewpoint - The electric two-wheeler industry in China is undergoing significant changes in 2024, with a notable decline in both sales and prices, driven by the implementation of new national standards and a wave of product replacements [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Yadea Holdings reported a revenue of approximately 28.236 billion RMB in 2024, a decrease of 18.8% compared to 2023 [4]. - The company's net profit was halved, reflecting broader industry challenges and individual company struggles [3][4]. - Sales of electric scooters fell by 20.7% to 3.931 million units, while electric bicycles saw a 21.4% decline to 9.089 million units [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The domestic electric two-wheeler market is saturated, with over 420 million units in circulation, leading to a shift in demand from new purchases to replacements [6]. - Increased competition from rivals like Aima Technology and Ninebot has intensified market pressures, with Ninebot's net profit soaring by 167.82% in the first half of 2024 [6][7]. - Yadea's gross margin decreased from 16.9% to 15.2% due to aggressive pricing strategies and rising raw material costs [6]. Group 3: Strategic Challenges - Yadea's reliance on government subsidies is becoming unsustainable as new regulations and international standards tighten [6][7]. - The company faces challenges in maintaining its market leadership as competitors rapidly expand and capture market share [7][9]. - Yadea is investing in research and development, planning to launch its first sodium-ion battery-powered electric bicycle in January 2025, aiming to reduce dependence on lead-acid batteries and mitigate lithium battery cost fluctuations [10][11]. Group 4: Global Expansion and Innovation - Yadea is accelerating its global expansion, particularly in Southeast Asia, with factories in Indonesia and Vietnam and flagship stores in Thailand [9]. - The company aims to adapt its products to local market needs rather than simply replicating its low-cost domestic strategy [11]. - Yadea's battery and charger revenue reached 4.065 billion RMB in the first half of 2024, down 9.62% year-on-year, indicating a need to diversify into B2B markets and energy services [13]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The transition from a focus on scale and price competition to value creation is essential for Yadea's survival and evolution in the changing market landscape [13]. - The company's ability to innovate in battery technology and expand internationally will be crucial in determining its future competitiveness [10][13].

Summary of Electric Two-Wheeler Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the electric two-wheeler industry, particularly the impact of new national standards on manufacturers and consumers [3][4][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **New National Standards Impact**: - The new standards impose a strict weight limit on plastic components of electric two-wheelers, capping it at 3.4 kg, which poses significant challenges for manufacturers [3][4]. - The relaxation of lead-acid battery weight to 63 kg does not alleviate the issue of vehicle overweight in practice, as manufacturers prioritize quality [5]. 2. **Consumer Choices and Market Dynamics**: - The new regulations may limit consumer options, as vehicles may not meet previous demands due to weight restrictions [4]. - The introduction of the BeiDou positioning system is becoming a trend, although it is not mandatory. The cost of adding this feature could lead to a price increase of 100-200 yuan, which may deter price-sensitive consumers [4][6]. 3. **Safety and Compliance**: - The new standards eliminate the mandatory pedal riding capability but require helmets to be sold with vehicles, reflecting a balance between safety and convenience [4][7]. - The transition period before the complete ban on old standard products will see manufacturers ramping up production of older models while preparing compliant new products [4][11]. 4. **Market Transition and Sales Pressure**: - The initial phase of compliance may lead to a decline in sales as consumers adjust to the new standards, particularly in first-tier cities where enforcement is stricter [13][15]. - Companies are expected to increase production of older models during the summer peak season to maximize sales before the new regulations take full effect [14][15]. 5. **Cost Implications**: - Compliance with the new standards is expected to increase production costs by 200-400 yuan per vehicle, with an overall price increase of approximately 500 yuan anticipated for consumers [17][19]. - The cost structure of electric two-wheelers shows that batteries account for about 35% of total costs, followed by motors (15-20%) and other components [21][22]. 6. **Industry Concentration and Competitive Landscape**: - The new standards are likely to benefit leading companies by raising industry entry barriers, thus increasing market concentration [18][19]. - Smaller companies may struggle to compete, particularly in first-tier cities, as they lack the R&D capabilities of larger firms [19]. 7. **Technological Innovations**: - Leading companies are investing in self-built battery and motor factories to reduce costs and create competitive advantages through technological innovations [20]. - The focus on smart features, such as keyless entry and navigation, is becoming a differentiating factor between traditional and emerging internet-based companies [24][25]. 8. **Market Performance of Emerging Brands**: - Companies like Ninebot and Niu are gaining market share, with Ninebot's sales nearing 2 million units and a target of 4 million units by 2026 [27]. - The shift in consumer demographics towards younger buyers is favoring these emerging brands over traditional ones like Yadea and Aima [27][28]. 9. **Sales Trends and Seasonal Variations**: - March sales showed a year-on-year increase for brands like Aima, attributed to seasonal demand and government policies encouraging trade-ins [29]. 10. **Challenges in International Markets**: - Current issues in overseas markets include inconsistent vehicle standards, necessitating the development of models tailored to local regulations [30]. Additional Important Insights - The BeiDou positioning system's integration is seen as beneficial for industry growth, although its adoption may take time due to cost concerns [6][8]. - The competitive landscape is expected to intensify as traditional manufacturers adapt to the innovations introduced by new entrants [28].

交银国际研究 行业更新 2025 年 3 月 11 日 行业评级 领先 2 月乘用车销量同比增 26%，以旧换新政策+车企促销推动车市回暖 估值概要 | 公司名称 | 股票代码 | 评级 | 目标价 | 收盘价 | | -----每股盈利----- | ----市盈率---- | | | ----市账率---- 股息率 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | FY25E | | | FY26E FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E | | | FY25E | | | | | | (当地货币) (当地货币) (报表货币) (报表货币) | | | (倍) | (倍) | (倍) | (倍) | (%) | | 比亚迪股份 | 1211 HK | 买入 | 379.22 | 350.20 | 23.261 | 28.629 | 14.1 | 11.4 | 3.11 | 2.42 | 0.1 | | 理想汽车 | 2015 HK | 买入 | 120.34 | 113 ...

两轮车研究系列 车中旭霞 行业深度： 《 电动两轮车行业深度：政策发力叠加格局优化，行业高景气拐点渐近 》—— 202 41224 相关个股： 《春风动力-中国全地形车及中大排摩托车龙头，出海、高端化引领新成长》——20240924 核心观点 2019年新国标：部分核心省份过渡期延期执行 2019年新国标刚推出时促进非国标车替换，对行业销量拉动最为明显，过渡期到期时部分电动两轮车核心省份如河 南、江苏等对过渡期延期，山东省过渡期截止后提出暂不禁止超标车上路，导致后期整体替换力度减弱，此外行业出 现解限速、违规安装大功率电池等行为，截止目前行业中仍存在超标车。 新国标+以旧换新发力，行业有望迎来销量拐点 2024年南京"2.23"火灾凸显行业规范化问题，新国标修订版、白名单及以旧换新政策陆续出台。新国标有望从生产端 对企业提出更高要求，小企业违规可能性被降低，促进份额向头部集中；以旧换新补贴力度较高，有望给消费者带来 明显感知，拉动需求提升。 根据销量测算，不考虑政策影响下，预计行业未来有望保持5%-10%销量复合增速，两轮 车替换需求是核心贡献。假设新国标出清比例范围20%-45%，对应出清销量范围165-3 ...