证券研究报告 | 行业深度 gszqdatemark 2025 05 08 年 月 日 家用电器 两轮车系列之一：如何看待两轮车行业格局及未来发展？ 本篇报告聚焦国内电动两轮车市场，拟探讨以下几个问题：1）电动两轮 车行业特点是什么？2）行业格局如何演绎？3）电动两轮车品牌商利润率 能否提升？提升动力和提升幅度分别如何？ ➢ 行业特点：看似矛盾的头部化格局&低盈利现状。 国内电动两轮车呈头部化格局，2024 年 CR3 约 61%。其中龙头雅迪份额 约 26%。但同时，行业呈低盈利现状。雅迪、爱玛、新日、小牛和九号（定 位高端电动两轮车）2024 年实现毛利率 15%/18%/16%/15%/28%，净 利率 5%/9%/1%/-6%/8%，远低于格局集中度高的空调行业。我们认为 原因主要系：1）准入门槛较低：整车偏组装性质，行业竞争充分；2）供 需属性复杂：供给端原材料组成多单位成本高，需求端为代步基础功能溢 价能力偏弱；3）规模效应不强：生产端多 SKU 模式下规模效应较弱，龙 头毛利率和行业无明显差距。 ➢ 寡头竞争：渠道、产能&品牌为核心竞争要素，有望形成双寡头格局。 商业模式来看，我们认为渠道&品牌 ...

Group 1 - The domestic electric two-wheeler market is showing a headquarter concentration pattern, with the CR3 expected to reach approximately 61% by 2024, while simultaneously exhibiting low profitability [1] - Leading companies like Yadea, Aima, New Day, Niu, and Ninebot are projected to have gross margins of 15%, 18%, 16%, 15%, and 28% respectively, with net margins of 5%, 9%, 1%, -6%, and 8% [1] - The low profitability is attributed to low entry barriers, complex supply-demand characteristics, and weak scale effects in production [1] Group 2 - The core competitive elements in the market are channels, production capacity, and brand strength, which are expected to lead to a dual oligopoly structure [2] - Channels and production capacity enhance market share, while brand strength reinforces competitive advantages [2] - The industry is likely to see increased concentration due to stricter production standards and the ongoing exit of small enterprises [2] Group 3 - As of April 2025, the domestic electric two-wheeler ownership is expected to exceed 420 million units, with demand primarily driven by replacements [3] - The industry is projected to reach annual sales of 55 million units in 2023, catalyzed by new national standards [3] - Profitability improvements for brand manufacturers are anticipated to come mainly from market structure benefits, although the extent of improvement is expected to be limited [3]

Summary of Electric Two-Wheeler Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The electric two-wheeler market is expected to grow by 10%-20% in 2025, driven by replacement demand and the implementation of new national standards, with Q2 and Q3 anticipated to be peak seasons, potentially leading to early consumption [1][4][24] - The high-end market remains stable, accounting for about 10% of total sales, and is less affected by consumer downgrading trends [1][21][22] Brand Performance and Growth Expectations - Aima and Niu are expected to grow by approximately 20%, while Ninebot is projected to grow by up to 80% due to product line expansion and channel development [1][6] - Ninebot's strategy of introducing products in the 2000-3000 yuan price range has successfully catered to the trend of consumer downgrading, resulting in significant sales growth [1][16] - In 2024, Ninebot sold 80,000 units, Niu sold 60,000 units, and Aima reached 180,000 units [3] Consumer Preferences and Market Dynamics - Key factors influencing consumer purchasing decisions include range, brand, appearance, and price, with range anxiety being a primary concern [1][11] - The cost of electric vehicles is significantly impacted by battery capacity, with approximately half of the cost attributed to batteries [1][12] - The Shanghai trade-in policy offers a 500 yuan subsidy, but its complexity and limited funding have resulted in low participation from stores [1][17][18] Channel Development and Store Expansion - Aima has around 500 stores, Niu has 160, and Ninebot has 200, totaling approximately 900 stores in Shanghai [2][9] - All three brands are actively expanding their market share and have clear channel development targets for 2025 [8] - Aima's store count is stable, while Niu aims to increase its stores by 30% and Ninebot also plans for a 30% increase [9] Impact of New National Standards - The new national standards are expected to enhance the quality of electric two-wheelers, extending their lifespan from 3-4 years to 5-6 years [1][21][33] - The implementation of these standards has led to improved materials and overall vehicle quality [21] Competitive Landscape and Pricing Strategies - The market is experiencing intensified price wars, with manufacturers lowering prices to clear inventory [28] - The exit of small and medium-sized enterprises from the market is expected to ease price competition, but this may take time [25][29] - Aima's single-vehicle profit margin is around 5%-8%, while Ninebot and Niu achieve margins of 10%-15% [35] Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - Current consumer willingness to purchase electric bicycles remains strong, with existing models meeting commuting needs in terms of aesthetics, price, and practicality [26] - The market is witnessing a clear trend of consumer downgrading, particularly in mid-range products, while high-end segments remain stable [34] Conclusion - The electric two-wheeler industry is poised for growth in 2025, driven by new policies and consumer trends, with significant differences in brand performance and consumer preferences shaping the competitive landscape [1][4][24]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Peak Forum on Lightweight Power Battery Technology aims to focus on lightweight battery technology and expand emerging application markets, highlighting the rapid growth of the lightweight power and small-scale energy storage markets driven by policy support, demand for instant delivery, and technological upgrades [1][3]. Event Background and Highlights - The event will feature the authoritative release of the SPIR Lightweight Power Battery and Two-Wheeled Vehicle Battery Swap TOP Rankings, covering the top 20 lightweight power battery shipments in China and key segments in the battery market [3]. - The global two-wheeled vehicle battery swap market is experiencing rapid growth, with Chinese companies poised to capitalize on new opportunities due to industry chain integration advantages [3]. - The industry is facing challenges such as battery safety, market penetration, and cost optimization, which need urgent solutions [3]. - AI technology is accelerating the development and optimization of new battery technologies and processes, significantly improving research and development efficiency [3]. Event Organization - The event is organized by Qidian Lithium Battery, Qidian Sodium Battery, and Qidian Two-Wheeled Vehicle and Battery Swap, with an expected attendance of over 500 participants [4]. Conference Agenda - The agenda includes specialized sessions on high-rate and fast-charging battery technologies, lightweight electric vehicle battery technologies, and small-scale energy storage battery technologies, with discussions on development trends and applications [5][7]. Invited Companies - Notable companies invited to participate include major electric two-wheeled vehicle manufacturers and battery companies such as Yadea, Aima, and CATL, as well as equipment and materials suppliers [8]. Registration Information - The registration fee for the event is 2888 yuan per person, which includes a conference ticket, lunch, and a copy of the 2025 China Lightweight Power Battery Industry White Paper [9].

24&25Q1 电动两轮车板块综述：受益供需合力拉动， 25Q1 表现靓丽 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业事项点评 [Table_StockAndRank] 轻工制造 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [Table_Author] 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮 箱： jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com [Table_Industry] 轻工制造 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 06 日 骆峥 新消费行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525020001 邮 箱： luozheng1@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 24&25Q1 电动两轮车板块综述：受益供需合力 拉动，25Q1 表现靓丽 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 06 日 [Table_S [Table_Summary ummary] ] 25Q ...

Group 1 - The core theme of the event is to focus on lightweight battery technology and expand emerging application markets [4][3] - The event will feature the authoritative release of the SPIR lightweight power battery and two-wheeler battery swap TOP rankings, covering the top 20 lightweight power battery shipments in China and key segments in the battery market [3] - The global two-wheeler battery swap market is experiencing rapid growth driven by policy support, demand for instant delivery, and technological upgrades, presenting new opportunities for Chinese companies [3][4] Group 2 - The event will take place on July 10-11, 2025, in Wuxi, Jiangsu, with an expected attendance of over 500 participants [4][5] - The agenda includes specialized sessions on high-rate and fast-charging battery technologies, lightweight electric vehicle battery technologies, and small and medium-sized energy storage battery technologies [5][7] - Roundtable discussions will address key topics such as balancing energy density, cost, and safety in lightweight electric vehicle batteries, and the future technological breakthroughs in small and medium-sized energy storage batteries [7][5] Group 3 - Notable participating companies include major electric two-wheeler manufacturers and battery companies such as Yadea, Aima, CATL, and BYD, as well as equipment and material suppliers [8] - The registration fee for the event is set at 2888 yuan per person, which includes a conference ticket, lunch, and a copy of the 2025 China Lightweight Power Battery Industry White Paper [9]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Summit on Lightweight Power Battery Technology aims to focus on lightweight battery technology and expand emerging application markets, highlighting the rapid growth of the lightweight power and small-scale energy storage markets driven by policy support, demand for instant delivery, and technological upgrades [1][3]. Event Background and Highlights - The event will feature the authoritative release of the Lightweight Power Battery and Two-Wheeled Vehicle Battery TOP Rankings, covering the top 20 lightweight power battery shipments in China and key segments in small-scale energy storage, drones, electric tools, and two-wheeled vehicles [3]. - The global two-wheeled vehicle battery swap market is experiencing rapid growth, with Chinese companies poised to capitalize on new opportunities due to industry chain integration advantages [3]. - The industry is facing challenges such as battery safety, market penetration, and cost optimization, which need urgent solutions [3]. - Companies are accelerating the development of high-safety, high-rate, high-energy density, long-cycle life, low-cost batteries with specialized performance advantages [3]. - AI technology is driving the research and optimization of new battery technologies and processes, significantly improving research efficiency [3]. Event Details - The 2025 Summit on Lightweight Power Battery Technology will take place on July 10-11, 2025, in Wuxi, Jiangsu, with an expected attendance of over 500 participants [4]. - The agenda includes specialized sessions on high-rate and fast-charging battery technologies, lightweight electric vehicle battery technologies, and small-scale energy storage battery technologies [5][7]. Participating Companies - Notable participating companies include Yadea, New Day, Aima, Niu Technologies, and various battery manufacturers such as CATL, BYD, and EVE Energy, as well as equipment and material suppliers [8]. Registration Information - The registration fee for the event is 2888 yuan per person, which includes a conference ticket, lunch, and a copy of the 2025 China Lightweight Power Battery Industry White Paper [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the overall sentiment appears to be optimistic based on the growth metrics and product developments mentioned. Core Viewpoints - The company has shown significant growth in Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 5.112 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 99.5%, and a net profit of 456 million yuan, up 236.2% year-on-year, indicating strong operational performance and market demand [1][2]. - The electric two-wheeler segment is a key driver of growth, with sales volume reaching 1.004 million units, a 140.8% increase year-on-year, and revenue from this segment accounting for 56% of total revenue [2][3]. - The company is expected to launch multiple new products across various categories, including electric two-wheelers and all-terrain vehicles, which are anticipated to further enhance market presence and customer base [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 29.7%, with a notable reduction in expense ratios across sales, management, and R&D, contributing to improved profitability [3]. - The company forecasts a steady increase in total revenue from 10.222 billion yuan in 2023 to 31.106 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 24.1% [6]. Product Development - The company is set to introduce new models targeting specific consumer segments, such as the "Q" series for female consumers and upgraded smart driving series, which are expected to attract a broader customer base [4]. - The Navimow robotic lawnmower is highlighted as a leading product in its category, with significant market potential and a strong brand presence [2][5]. Market Outlook - The overall market outlook for the company remains positive, with expectations of continued growth driven by product innovation and expanding market share in the electric two-wheeler and robotic lawnmower segments [2][4].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Peak Forum on Lightweight Power Battery Technology aims to focus on lightweight battery technology and expand emerging application markets, highlighting the rapid growth of the lightweight power and small-scale energy storage markets driven by policy support, demand for instant delivery, and technological upgrades [3][4]. Event Background and Highlights - The event will feature the authoritative release of the Lightweight Power Battery and Two-Wheeled Vehicle Battery TOP Rankings, covering the top 20 lightweight power battery shipments in China and key segments in small-scale energy storage, drones, electric tools, and two-wheeled vehicles [3]. - The global two-wheeled vehicle battery swap market is experiencing rapid growth, with Chinese companies poised to capitalize on new opportunities due to industry chain integration advantages [3]. - The industry is facing challenges such as battery safety, market penetration, and cost optimization, which need urgent solutions [3]. - AI technology is accelerating the development of new battery technologies and processes, significantly improving research and development efficiency [3]. Event Organization - The event is organized by Qidian Lithium Battery, Qidian Sodium Battery, and Qidian Two-Wheeled Vehicle and Battery Swap, with an expected attendance of over 500 participants [4]. Conference Agenda - The agenda includes specialized sessions on high-rate and fast-charging battery technologies, lightweight electric vehicle battery technologies, and small-scale energy storage battery technologies, with discussions on development trends and applications [5][7]. Invited Companies - Notable companies invited to participate include major electric two-wheeled vehicle manufacturers and battery companies such as Yadea, Aima, CATL, and BYD, as well as equipment and materials suppliers [8]. Registration Information - The registration fee for the event is 2888 yuan per person, which includes a conference ticket, lunch, and a copy of the 2025 China Lightweight Power Battery Industry White Paper [9].

Group 1: Ninebot Company (689009) - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with revenue of 5.112 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 99.5%, and a net profit of 456 million yuan, up 236.2% year-on-year [10] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 has been raised to 1.898 billion, 2.700 billion, and 3.600 billion yuan respectively, reflecting growth rates of 75.1%, 42.2%, and 33.3% [10] - The current market valuation corresponds to a PE ratio of 24X, 17X, and 13X for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [10] Group 2: Kweichow Moutai (600519) - The company achieved a revenue of 43.56 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%, with a net profit margin of 52.2% [15][13] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is set at 93.96 billion, 99.14 billion, and 104.71 billion yuan, with growth rates of 9.0%, 5.5%, and 5.6% respectively [11][12] - The company maintains a strong brand presence and cash flow quality, with a current PE ratio of 21X, 20X, and 19X for the respective years [12][13] Group 3: Caibai Co., Ltd. (605599) - The company reported a net profit forecast for 2025-2027 of 804 million, 877 million, and 949 million yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 13, 12, and 11 [19] - The increase in gold prices has driven demand for investment products, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts [19] - The company continues to expand its direct store network and enhance its online sales channels, achieving significant growth in e-commerce sales [16][19] Group 4: Bull Group (603195) - The company reported a revenue of 16.831 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, and a net profit of 4.272 billion yuan, up 10.4% [18] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 8.04 billion, 8.77 billion, and 9.49 billion yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [19] - The company is focusing on channel expansion and brand recognition to drive long-term sustainable growth [19] Group 5: Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) - The company achieved a revenue of 36.011 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.79%, with a net profit of 12.243 billion yuan, up 17.29% [21] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is set at 12.99 billion, 14.02 billion, and 15.29 billion yuan, with growth rates of 6.1%, 7.9%, and 9.1% respectively [21] - The company maintains a strong market presence with a diversified product range and solid management capabilities [21] Group 6: Yili Group (600887) - The company reported a total revenue of 115.78 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 8.24%, with a net profit of 8.453 billion yuan, down 18.94% [26] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is set at 11.377 billion, 12.138 billion, and 12.815 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 35%, 7%, and 6% respectively [28] - The company continues to focus on high-end product penetration and market share expansion in the dairy sector [28]