以下文章来源于邱处机 ，作者邱鑫浩 邱处机 . 专门研究商业牛人 用新技术、新产品定义新市场。 作者：邱鑫浩 来源：邱处机 在中国科技创业者中，有这样两位北航学霸：一个痴迷机器人技术，一个擅长商业运营。 他们从地下室起步，用二十年时间打造出一个横跨平衡车、电动滑板车、智能两轮电动车和机 器人的 460 亿市值的智造王国。 他们就是九号公司的创始人高禄峰与王野。 从收购全球平衡车鼻祖 Segway ，到让智能电动两轮车走进千万家庭；从被质疑是 " 小米代 工厂 " ，到成为全球短途出行领域的冠军——九号公司的创业故事，堪称中国智造崛起的经典 样本。 这里插播一条课程资讯： 报名 「吴世春·泸州出行活动」 ，9月21号-23号 ， 吴世春将亲自带队 100家企业家 ， 去四 川泸州线下游学 ， 探 访 下沉创新 ， 寻找增长新引擎。 你 在 创业路上遇到的问题和想法 ， 都可以找吴老师聊聊 。 如果你是 优质的项目，吴老师 也会果断投 你。 下半年 ， 吴老师预计要投出去的金额，应该不小于 15个亿。 （翻到底部了解详情） 扫码咨询报名 地下室里的机器人梦 2005 年的北京天通苑，一套租来的地下室里，几个年轻人 ...

Summary of Aima Technology Conference Call Industry Overview - The Chinese electric two-wheeler market is expected to see a 9.1% year-on-year decline in sales to 50 million units in 2024, recovering to approximately 52 million units in 2025, driven by trade-in policies and the implementation of new standards in 2025 [2][3] - Exports of electric two-wheelers from China reached 22.13 million units and $5.818 billion in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 47.1% and 27.6% respectively, with major markets including North America, Asia, and Europe [2][4] - The new stringent standards set to be implemented in September 2025 will relax weight limits for lead-acid battery vehicles and clarify anti-tampering requirements, benefiting safer lead-acid battery products and enhancing industry standards [2][5] Company Performance - Aima Technology reported a revenue increase of 35.09% to 20.802 billion yuan in 2022, with growth slowing to 1%-2% in 2023-2024, but a recovery of 25.82% year-on-year to 6.232 billion yuan in Q1 2025 due to favorable policies [2][6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company grew from 664 million yuan in 2021 to 1.988 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 44.13%, outperforming competitors like Yadea and Ninebot [2][6] Market Strategy - Aima Technology is focusing on high-end smart products and targeting female consumers, launching various product lines including Q, A, F, and X series to meet diverse consumer needs [3][7] - The company has achieved full price range coverage in electric bicycles and motorcycles, enhancing product intelligence through a multi-channel smart ecosystem [8] - The female user base in the electric two-wheeler market has increased from 34.5% in 2020 to 42.7% in 2024, prompting Aima to prioritize products catering to this demographic, which are more profitable [9] Electric Three-Wheeler Business - In 2024, the domestic electric three-wheeler market saw a total sales volume of approximately 12.5 million units, with Aima's revenue from this segment reaching 1.952 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.07% [10] - Aima is targeting female and elderly consumers with leisure three-wheelers, leveraging its existing advantages to increase market share [10] Distribution and Production - Aima primarily relies on a dealer network, maintaining over 1,900 dealers and 30,000 stores globally, with significant expansion in Southeast Asia [11] - The company has established eight production bases in China and is developing capacity in Southeast Asia, focusing on improving production efficiency through smart manufacturing and supply chain integration [12] Future Outlook and Risks - Forecasts for Aima's net profit are 2.616 billion yuan, 3.136 billion yuan, and 3.692 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of 3.01 yuan, 3.61 yuan, and 4.25 yuan [13] - Risks include potential market demand decline due to macroeconomic slowdown, intensified competition in the electric two-wheeler market, fluctuations in raw material prices, and challenges in technology development and dealer management [13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported strong revenue growth in Q2 2025, with a total revenue of 66.30 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 61.54% [3] - The company is expected to maintain high growth momentum in the electric two-wheeler segment, driven by expanding channels and new product introductions [3] - The net profit margin exceeded 13% in Q2, indicating room for further improvement in profitability [4] - The company is positioned for significant long-term growth, with new products like electric two-wheelers and robotic lawn mowers gaining traction in the market [5][6] Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 117.42 billion, up 76.13% year-on-year, with Q2 revenue of 66.30 billion, up 61.54% year-on-year [3] - Breakdown of Q2 revenue: - Electric two-wheelers: 39.60 billion, up 81% year-on-year, with sales of 1.3087 million units, up 77% [3] - Electric scooters: Retail and ToB revenue of 9.29 billion and 4.34 billion, up 28% and 43% respectively [3] - All-terrain vehicles: Revenue of 3.23 billion, up 11% year-on-year [3] - Accessories and others: Totaling 9.83 billion, with significant growth in robotic lawn mowers [3] Profitability Analysis - In H1 2025, the company reported a net profit of 12.42 billion, up 108.45% year-on-year, with Q2 net profit of 7.86 billion, up 70.77% year-on-year [4] - Q2 sales net profit margin was 12.00%, and the non-GAAP net profit margin was 13.22%, both showing year-on-year increases [4] - The gross margin for Q2 was 30.95%, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase [4] Growth Potential - The electric two-wheeler market is projected to exceed 50 million units in 2025, indicating substantial market demand [5] - The company has over 8,700 dedicated stores for electric two-wheelers in China as of June 30, 2025 [5] - The global market for all-terrain vehicles is expected to reach approximately 121.8 billion in 2025, with the company seeing significant growth in Europe and the U.S. [5] - The robotic lawn mower has received high recognition, with 170,000 households using the product [6] Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 206.36 billion, 262.77 billion, and 332.02 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 45.4%, 27.3%, and 26.4% respectively [7] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 20.23 billion, 25.87 billion, and 32.45 billion, with year-on-year growth of 86.6%, 27.9%, and 25.4% respectively [7] - The expected EPS for 2025-2027 is 28.12, 35.97, and 45.11 [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company has shown a steady increase in sales, particularly in the WEY brand, which saw a significant year-on-year increase of 263.3% in July [2] - The introduction of new models and the activation of the Haval brand are expected to drive sales growth, with the Haval brand achieving a sales volume of 56,000 units in July, up 6.2% year-on-year [3] - The company is expanding its overseas sales, with July's overseas wholesale sales reaching 41,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 4.9% [3] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In July, the company reported a wholesale sales volume of 104,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 14.3% and a month-on-month decrease of 5.7% [1] - Cumulative wholesale sales from January to July reached 674,000 units, up 3.6% year-on-year [1] Brand Performance - WEY brand sales in July were 10,000 units, with a remarkable year-on-year increase of 263.3% [2] - Haval brand sales were 56,000 units in July, with a year-on-year increase of 6.2% [3] - Tank brand sales were stable at 20,000 units in July, with a year-on-year increase of 7.2% [2] New Product Launches - The new Tank 500Hi4-T/Hi4-Z is set to begin pre-sales in August, with an expected launch in Q3 2025 [2] - The new Haval H9 is anticipated to debut by the end of the year, emphasizing off-road capabilities [3] Financial Forecast - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 226.78 billion, 261.70 billion, and 296.25 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 14.09 billion, 16.30 billion, and 18.24 billion yuan [4][19] - The report forecasts a PE ratio of 13, 11, and 10 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, with a net profit of 6.34 billion yuan, down 10.2% year-on-year, while the second quarter showed a recovery with a net profit of 4.59 billion yuan, up 19.1% year-on-year and 161.9% quarter-on-quarter [2]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.34 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.2% year-on-year, with a per-unit net profit of 11,000 yuan, down 2000 yuan year-on-year [2]. - The wholesale volume for H1 2025 was 570,000 units, an increase of 1.8% year-on-year, with Q2 2025 wholesale volume at 313,000 units, up 10.1% year-on-year and 21.9% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - Q2 2025 saw significant deliveries: Haval delivered 177,000 units (up 24.7% year-on-year), Wey brand delivered 21,000 units (up 106.3% year-on-year), while other brands like Ora and Tank experienced declines [2]. Product Development - The company is set to launch new models in H2 2025, including the Tank 400/500/700 with upgraded off-road technology and new SUVs from the Wey brand, enhancing its product matrix and brand positioning [3]. - The 2026 Haval Big Dog has been launched with a refreshed design, and the new flagship model, the Menglong PLUS, is expected to be released in H2 2025, focusing on luxury and performance [3]. Global Expansion - In H1 2025, overseas wholesale sales were 198,000 units, a slight decrease of 1.9% year-on-year, but Q2 2025 saw a recovery with 107,000 units sold, up 17.5% quarter-on-quarter [4]. - The company is expanding its global presence with new models launching in markets like Thailand and Mexico, and plans to enhance production capabilities in Brazil [4]. Investment Outlook - The company is expected to see revenue growth from 226.78 billion yuan in 2025 to 296.25 billion yuan in 2027, with net profits projected to rise from 14.09 billion yuan to 18.24 billion yuan in the same period [6].

Group 1: Company Overview - The company aims to "simplify the movement of people and goods" by creating a platform ecosystem for "smart short transportation + service robots" through the reuse and upgrade of core technologies [1] - The product line includes electric balance bikes, electric scooters, smart two-wheeled electric vehicles, E-Bikes, all-terrain vehicles, lawn mowing robots, and delivery robots [1] - In 2024, the company expects revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company to reach 14.2 billion and 1.1 billion respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 39% and 81% [1] Group 2: Electric Two-Wheeled Vehicles - The demand for electric two-wheeled vehicles is shifting towards high-end and intelligent products, with the company leading in brand recognition, purchase priority, and intelligent performance [2] - The company is projected to sell over 600,000 units in 2024, dominating the market segment priced above 4,000 yuan [2] - The implementation of new national standards is expected to concentrate market share among manufacturers with strong R&D capabilities, scale, and brand advantages, benefiting the company [2] Group 3: Service Robots - The company's founding team has a strong background in robotics, making the entry into the robot sector a strategic choice for achieving second growth [3] - Current robot products include lawn mowing robots and delivery robots, with the lawn mowing robot industry transitioning from mechanical to boundary-less robots [3] - The global penetration rate of lawn mowing robots is only 1.9% in 2024, with a target market size expected to exceed 300 billion [3] Group 4: Investment Outlook - The company's main business in electric two-wheeled vehicles is strongly positioned in the high-end intelligent market and is expected to benefit from industry upgrades [4] - New businesses such as lawn mowing robots, all-terrain vehicles, and E-Bikes are beginning to gain traction, supporting the company's second growth phase [4] - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 20.281 billion, 26.117 billion, and 32.366 billion respectively, with net profits of 1.796 billion, 2.417 billion, and 3.245 billion, corresponding to a PE ratio of 23.2, 17.3, and 12.9 [4]

Group 1 - The domestic electric two-wheeler market is showing a headquarter concentration pattern, with the CR3 expected to reach approximately 61% by 2024, while simultaneously exhibiting low profitability [1] - Leading companies like Yadea, Aima, New Day, Niu, and Ninebot are projected to have gross margins of 15%, 18%, 16%, 15%, and 28% respectively, with net margins of 5%, 9%, 1%, -6%, and 8% [1] - The low profitability is attributed to low entry barriers, complex supply-demand characteristics, and weak scale effects in production [1] Group 2 - The core competitive elements in the market are channels, production capacity, and brand strength, which are expected to lead to a dual oligopoly structure [2] - Channels and production capacity enhance market share, while brand strength reinforces competitive advantages [2] - The industry is likely to see increased concentration due to stricter production standards and the ongoing exit of small enterprises [2] Group 3 - As of April 2025, the domestic electric two-wheeler ownership is expected to exceed 420 million units, with demand primarily driven by replacements [3] - The industry is projected to reach annual sales of 55 million units in 2023, catalyzed by new national standards [3] - Profitability improvements for brand manufacturers are anticipated to come mainly from market structure benefits, although the extent of improvement is expected to be limited [3]