(投资中国)贝莱德集团中国区负责人：外资对中国市场关注度持续上升 中新社上海2月9日电 (高志苗)贝莱德中国2026年投资展望会近日在上海举行。贝莱德集团中国区负责人 范华接受中新社采访时表示，外资对中国市场的关注度在持续上升。中国作为全球第二大经济体，产业 基础坚实、升级动能强劲，展现出较强的韧性与独特的增长潜力。 范华认为，对于外资机构而言，配置中国资产不仅能把握结构性机遇，也可享受相对较低的估值优势， 并通过资产间的低相关性实现投资组合的有效分散。此外，稳定的汇率预期与持续开放的跨境投资渠 道，将进一步便利全球资本的双向流动，为增强资产配置的多元性提供支撑。 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 在范华看来，当前全球市场正被人工智能、地缘政治、能源转型、人口老龄化及新金融五大颠覆性趋势 重塑，导致资产价格高波动、政策不确定性加剧。面对复杂的市场环境，投资者应系统性构建更具韧性 的投资组合，全球配置是实现"中国投海外，海外投中国"的共赢选择。 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 范华分析，过去几年"K型"增长成为中美市场的共同特征，行业表现差异巨大。她认为，人工智能(AI) 引领的新一轮技术革命正在重塑长期增 ...

Core Viewpoint - The private credit markets are experiencing increased uncertainty due to the emergence of AI-driven tools that may disrupt traditional software business models, particularly affecting software companies that are significant borrowers in the private lending space [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of AI on Software Companies - AI tools developed by Anthropic are designed to perform complex tasks that many software companies currently charge for, raising concerns about the potential weakening of traditional software business models [2]. - The software sector, which has been a favored area for private credit lenders since 2020, is now facing pressure as AI adoption could accelerate faster than companies can adapt [5][7]. - Software companies account for approximately 17% of loans held by U.S. business development companies, making them a significant focus for private credit lenders [6]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Financial Implications - Shares of major asset managers with substantial private credit franchises have declined significantly, with Ares Management falling over 12%, Blue Owl Capital losing over 8%, and KKR declining almost 10% [3]. - UBS Group has warned that default rates in U.S. private credit could rise to 13% in an aggressive disruption scenario, which is notably higher than the projected stress for leveraged loans and high-yield bonds [7]. - The private credit industry, valued at $3 trillion, is facing concerns over leverage, opaque valuations, and the risk of isolated problems becoming systemic issues [9]. Group 3: Credit Risk and Future Outlook - The potential for credit risk varies among software and services sector borrowers, depending on their position relative to AI advancements [10]. - Payment-in-kind (PIK) loans, which allow borrowers to defer interest payments, are prevalent among software companies, posing risks if their financial situations deteriorate [11]. - Experts indicate that while the private credit industry may currently absorb losses, ongoing credit growth could lead to significant credit problems in the future [13].

Core Viewpoint - The overwhelming victory of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is expected to sustain the upward trend in the Japanese stock market, while putting further downward pressure on the yen and government bonds [1][2]. Economic Impact - The LDP has secured more than two-thirds of the absolute majority in the House of Representatives, significantly exceeding some investors' expectations [1]. - Kishida's economic stimulus policies are anticipated to have a clearer path for implementation, which is seen as positive for the Nikkei index [1]. - The Japanese stock market, particularly the Tokyo Stock Exchange index, reached a historical high last week, with an increase of over 8% this year, compared to a mere 2% rise in global developed market stock indices [1]. Currency and Bond Market - The yen has depreciated, with the exchange rate against the US dollar slightly falling to 157.61, and a cumulative decline of 1.6% last week, nearing the 160 mark that previously triggered intervention by Japanese authorities [1]. - Analysts suggest that the natural trajectory for the yen is further depreciation, with expectations of potential intervention by Japanese officials in the low range [5]. - Concerns about the sustainability of Japan's fiscal policies and temporary tax relief measures are driving the risk of further selling in Japanese government bonds [7]. Sector Focus - The market is expected to focus on sectors such as defense and nuclear energy, which align with Kishida's national investment agenda [4]. - Investment in defense, artificial intelligence, and semiconductors is likely to benefit significantly from Kishida's plans for increased spending [4]. Market Sentiment - Despite existing concerns, Japanese government bonds showed some recovery last week, with upward pressure on yields easing, particularly for long-term bonds [9]. - The overwhelming victory of the LDP may provide Kishida with more political maneuvering space to address the demands of the bond market [9].

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals prices, including gold and silver, are experiencing a rebound after a volatile period characterized by significant price fluctuations. The long-term outlook for gold remains bullish, while silver is noted for its higher volatility due to its smaller market size and lower liquidity [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of the latest report, spot gold has increased by 0.44% to $4988.6 per ounce, while spot silver has risen over 2% to $79.69 per ounce. Last Friday, silver prices surged nearly 10%, and gold rose close to 4% [1][8]. - U.S. stock index futures have also shown gains, with the S&P 500 futures up 0.30%, Nasdaq futures up 0.38%, and Dow futures up 0.26% [1][8]. Group 2: Analyst Insights - Analysts from JPMorgan view the recent gold price movements as a typical short-term pullback rather than a sign of a long-term trend reversal. They predict a holding pattern for gold prices in the coming weeks, with resistance levels at $5000 and $5100-$5150 [2][9]. - The core logic supporting the gold bull market, particularly the theme of currency debasement, remains intact despite short-term technical corrections. The dollar index is noted to be consistently below the 100 mark, indicating a long-term weak signal for the dollar [2][9]. Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Multiple banks and asset management firms have reiterated their long-term bullish outlook on gold. A fund manager from Fidelity International expressed readiness to buy again after selling before the recent drop [1][9]. - Analysts from Galaxy Securities suggest that metal assets may continue to experience a period of consolidation, with attention on U.S. CPI data to gauge inflation persistence and adjust Federal Reserve policy expectations [3][10]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The volatility in precious metals is seen as a consolidation phase rather than an end to the upward trend in gold prices. Historical patterns suggest that after a sharp increase in volatility, the market often requires time to digest profits before continuing its upward trajectory [11][12]. - The demand for gold from central banks has become a significant structural driver for gold prices, with an increasing number of countries actively diversifying their foreign exchange reserves [12][13].

近期，汇丰晋信基金、鑫元基金、光大保德信基金、摩根资产管理、瑞士百达资产管理等多家资管 机构对2026年的权益市场进行了展望。 有机构表示，企业业绩修复弹性或成为2026年的亮点。尽管全球宏观波动率上升，但国内尾部风险 收敛与股债性价比指标进入合理区间，使得中国权益资产吸引力凸显。此外，部分机构推出的策略呈现 新特征：从过去聚焦高股息与科技两端，转向"纺锤型"配置，中游周期制造业或成为关注对象。 俞一奇认为，从内部环境看，当前国内经济的尾部风险正逐渐收敛，国内宏观波动率正在降低。然 而与国内相反，全球宏观波动率却有所上升。这主要源于两方面，一是地缘局势的影响，二是全球主要 经济体普遍处于债务的后周期阶段，许多国家财政面临较大压力，从而推升了全球层面的宏观不确定 性。宏观波动率此消彼长，进一步提升了中国权益资产的吸引力。 权益资产仍有相对估值优势 从资金面的角度分析，光大保德信基金认为，当前融资余额/全A市值升至2015年来的次高水平，两 融杠杆资金规模创下历史新高。从数据上看，从2025年8月底开始，杠杆提升后赚钱效应却逐渐减弱， 这一定程度上会抑制杠杆资金的入市强度，后续杠杆资金的发力更多依赖市场上行空间。 ...

Group 1 - The Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) has intensified market regulation by taking self-regulatory measures against 21 instances of abnormal trading behavior from February 2 to February 6, including monitoring the delisting risk warning stock "*ST Yun Chuang" [1] - BSE has imposed self-regulatory measures on Zhejiang Haokun Shengfa Asset Management Co., which was found to have engaged in price manipulation of the stock "Huawei Design" through abnormal trading activities, resulting in a price increase of 6.42% within 104 seconds [1][2] - The trading activities involved significant buying percentages, with 67.9% and 87.95% of total transactions during the price manipulation, followed by reverse selling actions [1] Group 2 - BSE has issued disciplinary actions against 11 current and former directors and senior management of Luqiao Information for falsifying contracts and inflating revenue, resulting in inflated operating income of 15.836 million yuan and 25.764 million yuan for 2023 and 2024, respectively [3] - The inflated profits accounted for 73.57% and 103.50% of the reported total profits for the respective years, leading to false disclosures in the annual reports [3] - The individuals involved have been held accountable for failing to fulfill their duties and have received disciplinary actions, which will be recorded in the securities and futures market integrity archives [3]

□本报记者 王鹤静 根据《证券公司大集合资产管理业务适用〈关于规范金融机构资产管理业务的指导意见〉操作指引》要 求，券商资管大集合产品改造为公募基金产品已接近尾声。近期，东证融汇资管携手东财基金，顺利推 动两只重磅债券型产品公募化转型落地。 两只产品的原基金经理应洁茜、郑铮同步加盟东财基金，将继续为两只产品的投资管理保驾护航。日 前，应洁茜、郑铮在接受中国证券报记者专访时表示，从券商资管大集合产品转型为公募基金后，两只 产品的投资管理风格依然以追求稳健的持有体验为目标，同时将更加专注于挖掘滚动持有期不同所带来 的负债端稳定性价值，纯粹公募化的投研风格和协同效应加持将映射到策略执行上。 公募转型平稳落地 券商资管大集合产品改造成公募基金的大背景，促成了这样一次特别的合作。 2026开年以来，国内债市历经此前的超涨回调后，开始企稳回升。应洁茜认为，当前利率水平已回到相 对合理的区间，无论是资金面、情绪面还是利率曲线，都能与目前的经济增速以及货币供给水平相匹 配。 "今年国内债市的投资体感可能要比2025年好很多。"在应洁茜看来，目前国内经济仍处于转型阶段，企 业业绩有所企稳，但地产基建仍形成拖累，物价水平较为温和 ...

□本报记者 魏昭宇 看好中游周期制造业 谈及看好的市场方向，汇丰晋信基金股票研究总监、基金经理闵良超表示，过去3—4年做资产配置的时 候，更重视两端的资产，一端是以银行为代表的高分红、高股息资产；一端是以人工智能（AI）为代 表与海外产业周期相关的资产，这类资产的共性是与内需弱相关。"从去年下半年开始，我们更偏好'纺 锤型'策略。这意味着，我们对于两端的资产会相对看淡，但是对中间环节的资产，则会相对看多。" 闵良超进一步表示："中间环节是以中游的周期制造业为主，其面临估值低、持仓低、关注度低的境 况。过去，中间环节承压，很重要的原因来自于供给面，而不是来自需求面。举例来说，某行业过去五 年需求累计增长不到20%，但供给的增长可能达到50%。但我们认为，当前基本面发生了较大变化，展 望未来五年，假设需求还是20%的增长，供给的增速有望远远小于20%，企业业绩有望慢慢修复。所以 在当前，'纺锤型'策略的性价比更高。" 摩根资产管理中国策略专家俞一奇表示，随着2025年"反内卷"政策的实施，一些已面临产能压力的行 业，其新增投资已出现明显放缓，这一变化有望推动行业供需关系趋向平衡。尽管供给端投资的回落可 能些许拖累 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Shanghai Guotai Haitong Securities Asset Management Co., Ltd., will launch a fund conversion service for its publicly offered securities investment funds starting from February 9, 2026, to meet the investment needs of investors [1]. Group 1: Fund Conversion Service Details - The fund conversion service will be available for all publicly offered securities investment funds that meet the conversion business rules at the company's direct sales counter [1]. - Investors can convert their holdings in one fund to another fund managed by the same fund manager and sold by the same sales institution [1][2]. - The conversion service will be operational on trading days of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, except when the company announces a suspension of subscription or redemption [1]. Group 2: Applicable Funds - The conversion service applies to all publicly offered securities investment funds sold at the company's direct sales counter, excluding certain fund types such as fund of funds (FOF), money market funds, QDII funds, REITs, and specific personal pension fund shares [2]. Group 3: Conversion Rules - Both funds involved in the conversion must be managed by the same fund manager and registered with the same registration institution [4]. - The fund being converted out must be redeemable, while the fund being converted into must be available for subscription [4]. - The conversion price will be based on the net asset value of the funds on the day the conversion application is accepted [4]. - The conversion process follows a "first in, first out" principle regarding the registration dates of the fund shares [4]. Group 4: Conversion Process and Timing - The effective date for the conversion application is the day it is received, with confirmations typically occurring the next business day [5]. - Investors can check the status of their conversion from the second business day after the application [5]. - The holding period for the converted fund shares will restart from the confirmation date of the conversion [6]. Group 5: Conversion Fees - Conversion fees consist of the redemption fee from the fund being converted out and any difference in subscription fees between the two funds [9]. - The redemption fee will be charged according to the redemption fee rate of the fund being converted out [9]. - If the subscription fee for the fund being converted into is higher, the investor must pay the difference; otherwise, no additional fee will be charged [9]. Group 6: Important Notes - Single conversion applications must meet the minimum redemption and subscription amounts as specified in the fund's prospectus [10]. - Investors can withdraw their conversion requests before the end of the trading day on which they are submitted [8]. - The company reserves the right to adjust the conversion rules within the legal framework and fund contracts [11].

投资者将重点关注就业增长的绝对水平，以及年度修正幅度。根媒体调查，经济学家预计1月新增就业 人数约为7万人，前一个月为5万人。失业率预计维持在4.4%，接近去年11月触及的4.5%周期高点。相 关数据将由美国劳工统计局发布。 Vanguard高级投资组合经理Brian Quigley表示，最近一次真正推动市场的就业指标变化，是失业率的小 幅回落，这被美联储视为劳动力市场趋于稳定的信号。"失业率可能是当前最关键的数字，如果保持稳 定，美联储将继续按兵不动；如果升破4.5%，那么降息预期就会重新被点燃。" 受劳动力市场走弱迹象影响，本周美债收益率整体走低，其中短端至中端国债收益率领跌，促使交易员 将首次降息的时间预期提前至6月或7月。不过，随着美股在周五强劲反弹，美债收益率当日小幅回升。 展望下周，市场将迎来多项重磅数据，包括零售销售、被推迟公布的1月美国就业报告以及最新通胀数 据。这些指标将直接对应美联储"稳定通胀与充分就业"的双重政策目标。同时，美国财政部也将从周二 开始，通过一系列拍卖发行总计1250亿美元的国债，为市场流动性和收益率走势再添变量。 DWS Americas固定收益主管George Catr ...