Group 1 - The unemployment rate in the Philippines for March is reported at 3.9%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - The labor force participation rate decreased to 62.9%, down 2.4 percentage points year-on-year and lower than 64.5% in February [1] - The total labor force dropped to 49.96 million from 51.15 million a year ago and 51.09 million in February, indicating a weakening labor market [1] Group 2 - The employed population in March decreased to 48.02 million, lower than 49.15 million in both the previous year and February [1] - The number of unemployed individuals in March was 1.93 million, a decrease of 70,000 from the previous year and slightly lower than 1.94 million in February [1] - The services sector accounted for the majority of employment, with 29.77 million jobs, representing 62.0% of total employment [1] Group 3 - The underemployment rate rose to 13.4% in March, up from 11.0% a year ago and 10.1% in February, indicating that 6.44 million workers are seeking more hours or better job opportunities [2] - The labor force participation rate for the 15 to 24 age group fell to 29.4% from 33.3% a year ago, while the unemployment rate for this group increased from 8.7% to 11.0%, highlighting increased pressure on youth employment [2]

期货研究报告|宏观数据 2025-05-06 4 月 PMI 回落，关税扰动初现 ——宏观景气度系列四 研究院 徐闻宇 xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 4 月中国制造业 PMI 为 49.0（-1.5pct MoM）；非制造业 PMI 为 51.9（-1.5pct MoM）。 核心观点 ■ 制造业 PMI 供给：制造业生产回落。4 月生产指数为 49.8，较上月变化-2.8 。供应商配送时间指数 为 50.2，较上月变化-0.1 。 需求：制造业需求回落。4 月新订单指数为 49.2，较上月变化-2.6 。新出口订单指数为 44.7，较上月变化-4.3 。在手订单指数为 43.2，较上月变化-2.4 。 供求平衡：供需关系小幅改善但未扭转。4 月供需指数（需求-供给）为-0.6 ，较上月变 化 0.2 ，较去年同期变化 1.2 ，较过去三年均值变化 1.1 。 价格：制造业盈利收缩。4 月原材料价格指数为 47，较上月变化-2.8 。出厂价格指数为 44.8，较上月变化-3.1 。出厂价格-原材 ...

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 5 月 6 日 4 月 PMI 数据点评 外部环境对制造企业生产意愿有所影响 外部环境对制造企业生产意愿有所影响。4 月高技术制造业、设备制造业海 外需求下滑较为明显。4 月建筑业生产经营延续活跃。部分原材料加工业及 纺织工业景气度处于扩张区间。 4 月制造业产、需表现均有回落。2025 年 4 月，制造业 PMI 指数为 49.0%， 环比（3 月，下同）下降 1.5 个百分点；制造企业景气度跌落至收缩区间。 多个重要细分项环比有所回落，4 月新订单指数 49.2%，环比下滑 2.6 个 百分点，其中，新出口订单指数环比明显下滑 4.3 个百分点，实现 44.7%， 为 2023 年 1 月以来最低水平。4 月生产指数实现 49.8%，环比下滑 2.8 个百分点；原材料库存指数为 47.0%，环比回落 0.2 个百分点；产成品库 存指数为 47.3%，环比下滑 0.7 个百分点；从业人员指数为 47.9%，环比 继续下滑 0.3 个百分点；供货商配送时间指数为 50.2%，环比下滑 0.1 个 百分点。企业预期方面，制造业生产经营活动预期指数实现 52 ...

王青 闫骏 冯琳 事件：根据国家统计局公布的数据，2025 年 4 月，中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 49.0%，比 3 月下降 1.5 个百分点；4 月，非制造业商务活动指数为 50.4%，比 3 月下降 0.4 个百分点，其中，建 筑业商务活动指数为 51.9%，比 3 月下降 1.5 个百分点，服务业 PMI 指数为 50.1%，比 3 月下降 0.2 个 百分点；4 月综合 PMI 产出指数为 50.2%，比 3 月下降 1.2 个百分点。 4 月 PMI 数据要点解读如下： 4 月制造业 PMI 指数下降 1.5 个百分点，符合预期。背后主要有两个原因：一是外部环境急剧变 化。4 月初美国对全球加征所谓的"对等关税"，我国外部经贸环境骤然生变，外需出现明显下滑，对 制造业供需两端形成较大拖累。这是 4 月制造业 PMI 指数出现近两年来最大幅度下行的主要原因。二 是季节性因素。3 月是制造业旺季，4 月制造业景气度会有季节性下行。数据显示，过去 10 年中，4 月 制造业 PMI 指数比 3 月平均低 0.8 个百分点。 数据显示，3 月新出口订单指数比上月大幅下行 4.3 个百分点，降至 4 ...

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 据智通财经4月28日消息，立方数科(300344.SZ)公告称，公司于2025年4月28日收到证监会下发的《立 案告知书》，因定期报告涉嫌信息披露违法违规，证监会决定对公司立案。立案调查期间，公司将积极 配合证监会的各项工作，严格按照规定及监管要求履行信息披露义务。公司生产经营情况一切正常，上 述事项不会影响公司正常的生产经营活动。 回天新材：终止投资建设回天新能源新材料技术产业园项目 据智通财经4月27日消息，回天新材(300041.SZ)公告称，公司于2025年4月25日召开第十届董事会第二 次会议，审议通过了《关于终止投资建设回天新能源新材料技术产业园项目的议案》，同意终止在合肥 市肥东县投资建设回天新能源新材料技术产业园项目。 据4月28日盘后口子窖发布2024年报及一季报公告，2024年报显示，公司实现营业收入60.15亿元，同比 增长0.89%，增速相比于上年有所放缓；利润总额达到22.74亿元，同比减少2.32%；实现归母净利润 16.55亿元，同比减少3.83%。报告期内，白酒库存量同比增长27%，增速高于当期白酒产量与销量。 宝馨科技：收到两 ...

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗 漏。 特别提示： 1、股票期权简称：中岩JLC2 2、股票期权代码：037491 3、股票期权授予日：2025年4月7日 4、股票期权授予的激励对象：4人 5、股票期权授予的数量：15万份 6、股票期权授予的行权价格：11.25元/份 7、股票来源：公司向激励对象定向发行的公司人民币普通股（A股）股票 4、2024年4月8日，公司召开2024年第一次临时股东大会，审议通过了《关于〈2024年股票期权激励计 划（草案）〉及其摘要的议案》《关于〈2024年股票期权激励计划实施考核管理办法〉的议案》《关于 提请股东大会授权董事会办理2024年股票期权激励计划相关事宜的议案》，关联股东回避表决。 5、2024年5月21日，根据公司2024年第一次临时股东大会的授权，公司召开第三届董事会第二十一次会 议和第三届监事会第十七次会议，审议通过了《关于调整2024年股票期权激励计划相关事项的议案》 《关于向公司2024年股票期权激励计划激励对象首次授予股票期权的议案》。监事会对调整后的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The April PMI data indicates a decline in manufacturing while the service sector remains in expansion, suggesting potential policy adjustments in response to economic conditions [1][4]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for April is reported at 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the critical threshold [1][2]. - Production and new orders indices are at 49.8% and 49.2%, respectively, both showing declines of 2.8 and 2.6 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing production and market demand [2]. - High-tech manufacturing PMI remains in the expansion zone at 51.5%, despite a 0.8 percentage point drop, demonstrating resilience and strong support from market demand and policy [3]. - The decline in manufacturing PMI is attributed to external economic changes, particularly the impact of increased tariffs from the U.S., and seasonal factors, as April typically sees a decrease following the peak in March [2][3]. Service Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still indicates expansion [4]. - The service sector PMI is at 50.1%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points, with seasonal factors contributing to this change [5]. - The construction PMI is reported at 51.9%, down 1.5 percentage points, primarily due to a decline in real estate investment, although civil engineering activity shows a significant increase, indicating potential for future growth [5]. Economic Outlook - The expectation is that domestic demand will counterbalance the slowdown in external demand, becoming a key support for manufacturing sector performance [6]. - There is a prediction that the manufacturing PMI may remain in the contraction zone in May but could rebound to around 49.5% due to increased policy support [7]. - The likelihood of policy rate cuts is increasing as the manufacturing PMI remains in contraction for two consecutive months, with expectations for timely adjustments in monetary policy [1][7].

美国关税炸弹将引爆：贸易战冲击波终于将传导到美国消费端，本周起数百亿美元商品新增关税将直接推高美国零售商品价格。 500万美国学生贷款借款人重启噩梦：特朗普终止持续五年多的联邦学贷暂停还款政策。午夜钟声敲响时，美国催收公司将立即恢复扣工资和截留退税还贷 款。 美国港口与货运业为大规模裁员潮做好准备：美国进口商为避关税砍订单→美国集装箱吞吐量暴跌→美国码头班次锐减→美国小型货运公司开始倒闭，接下 来的连锁反应是：美国仓储临时工和零售理货员将是下一波裁员受害者。 美国联邦裁员雪球越滚越大：DOGE 对联邦政府机构的"优化重组"已裁撤数千岗位，新一轮裁员将波及从美国航空邮政人员到美国农业部监察员的各个领 域。 美国廉价劳动力被迫转入地下：美国国土安全部和 ICE 移民局不仅抓捕无证的非法移民工人，还根据新的"窝藏罪"政策拘留其配偶、子女甚至房东、法官。 依赖此类劳动力的美国行业——农产品、酒店业、建筑业——正在经历员工流失与价格飙升的双重打击。 美国通胀+失业=滞胀陷阱正在成型：美国关税推高物价的同时，美国裁员潮削减家庭收入。美联储既不能印码头工人也不能印西红柿，因此降息也就无从 谈起，政策枷锁遭遇CPI飙升，按照 ...

预计美联储按兵不动，鲍威尔在记者会上的发言更值得留意。 市场终于从关税战回归到基本面，就业和盈利成为了主导全球风险资产市场的主要力量。美国非农就业 数据强过市场预期，打消了资金对5月降息的念头，两年期国债收益率上周升15点，美元指数也涨回到 100。标普500连涨九天，收复了4月2日以来所有失地。流动性改善，公司债发行蜂拥而至。市场传 OPEC+计划每天再增40万桶原油产量，布伦特期油价格大跌。美元升，金价跌。 4月美国非农就业人数增长17.7万（前两个月就业人数共被下修5.8万），好过彭博社分析员预测中位数 13.5万和笔者16万。平均时薪环比增长0.2%，较3月份有所放缓；失业率保持在4.2%，而劳动参与率升 至62.6%。美国联邦政府4月份减少了9000个工作岗位，自1月份以来累计减少了2.6万个，政府是各大经 济部门中减员最多的。 这组就业数据很不错。尽管4月份是连续三个月非农职位增加数较前月下滑，但仍然高过本世纪以来的 单月就业增加平均值。考虑到经济扩张已经在周期末端，而且美国总统特朗普本届上任以来一系列激进 操作，应该说美国劳工市场韧性十足。AI应用对白领就业有冲击，但制造业和建筑业在加人。 当然 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View In April, the economic expansion pace slowed down, but business production and operation activities remained in an expansion state. The manufacturing industry was affected by tariff shocks, with enterprises actively reducing inventory due to risk aversion. The non - manufacturing industry was supported by front - loaded fiscal policies in the construction sector. In the bond market, the one - year Treasury yield has room to decline, and after the ten - year Treasury yield approaches the previous low, value - type equity assets may show better allocation value [1][2][6]. 3. Summary by Directory Manufacturing - **Supply and demand**: In April, the production index dropped 2.8 to 49.8, and the new order index dropped 2.6 to 49.2. The new export order dropped 4.3 to 44.7, while domestic demand relatively recovered. Industries such as food and medicine had both supply and demand indices above 53.0, while industries like textile and clothing and metal products saw significant declines in both indices, falling below the critical point [2]. - **Price and profit**: Affected by insufficient market demand and the continuous decline of some commodity prices, the main raw material purchase price index and the ex - factory price index were 47.0 and 44.8 respectively, down 2.8 and 3.1 from the previous month [2]. - **Inventory and production expansion**: Uncertainty led enterprises to actively reduce inventory. In April, the purchase volume dropped 5.5 to 46.3, imports dropped 4.1 to 43.3, raw material inventory and finished product inventory decreased by 0.2 and 0.7 respectively. The production and operation activity expectation dropped 1.7 to 52.1, falling for three consecutive months, and the employment index dropped 0.3 to 47.9 [2]. - **Enterprise size impact**: The PMI of large, medium, and small enterprises was 49.2, 48.8, and 48.7 respectively, down 2.0, 1.1, and 0.9 from the previous month, all below the critical point [3]. - **Industry segment impact**: The PMI of high - tech manufacturing dropped 0.8 to 51.5, equipment manufacturing dropped 2.4 to 49.6, consumer goods industry dropped 0.6 to 49.4, and basic raw material industry dropped 1.6 to 47.7 [3]. Non - manufacturing - **Overall situation**: In April, the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.4, down 0.4 month - on - month. The construction industry PMI dropped 1.5 to 51.9, and the service industry PMI dropped 0.2 to 50.1. Industries such as air transportation, telecommunications, and the Internet were in a high - prosperity range, while industries like water transportation and capital market services were below the critical point [4][5]. - **Demand side**: The non - manufacturing external demand deteriorated significantly. The new order index was 44.9, down 1.7 month - on - month, and the new export order dropped 7.6 to 42.2. The new order index of the construction industry was 39.6, down 3.9 month - on - month, and that of the service industry was 45.9, down 1.2 month - on - month [5]. 4. Investment Advice Given the tariff shocks causing enterprises to shrink their businesses and the significant decline in the prosperity of the equipment manufacturing industry, and considering the central government's stable policy stance, in the bond market, the one - year Treasury yield has room to decline. After the ten - year Treasury yield approaches the previous low (1.6%), value - type equity assets are expected to gradually show better allocation value [6].