子行业周度核心观点： 光伏&储能：在光伏行业走出过剩困境的道路上，顶层关注力度丝毫不减，但驱动行业反转的核心力量，或正从政策 强制干预向产业自发自主转移，曙光已初现；中美贸易关系缓和实质性利好大储，继续重点推荐：阳光电源、阿特斯。 风电：大金重工新签 10 亿欧洲海风基础订单，我们统计 2025-2026 年将有接近 20GW 的海风项目将进行海风基础招 标，看好公司年内订单持续落地；运达股份宣布投资巴西本地化风机及储能制造基地，金风签约阿曼 234MW 风电项目， 整机出海提速，看好头部整机企业盈利修复。 电网：1）国网发布《电力"人工智能+"白皮书》，加快推进人工智能与电力生产等深度融合，以智能化技术支撑新型 电力系统建设，建议关注电网信息化相关受益标的；2）疆电送电川渝特高压直流环评第二次公示，工程计划于 25 年 12 月开工，特高压建设持续推进，重申 25 年是特高压开工大年，看好 25 年特高压相关公司业绩弹性持续兑现。 新能源车：本周周度数据同比再次走弱，增速下滑至约 5%，引发市场对行业大贝塔的焦虑。事实上环比 4 月 2 周，市 场总量增速较好，环比+30%，说明整体销量在季节性波动上仍是正 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the AIDC power equipment and grid industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [1] Core Viewpoints - Domestic and international cloud service providers have significantly increased capital expenditures in Q1, indicating a rising investment sentiment in the domestic power grid [4] - The power equipment capacity can reach 3-5 times that of computing chips, with the supply and distribution market expected to reach 73 billion yuan by 2026 [4] - The AIDC power equipment sector has seen a general increase in stock prices, with lead-acid batteries, HVDC, and UPS showing the highest gains [4] - The industry is characterized by a long power transmission chain, with global giants like Eaton and Schneider having established strong product lines and solution capabilities, while domestic companies are gaining competitive advantages [4] - The year 2025 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for AIDC construction, with significant capital expenditures expected from major cloud providers [4] Summary by Sections AIDC Power Equipment - Major cloud companies like Tencent and Alibaba have ramped up their AI computing infrastructure investments, with Tencent's capital expenditure reaching 27.48 billion yuan, up 91% year-on-year, and Alibaba's at 24.612 billion yuan, up 121% [4][16] - The global data center's IT load is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 48% from 2024 to 2026 [4] - The AIDC power equipment sector is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for power supply equipment, including transformers and UPS systems [4] Grid Industry - In March 2025, the national power engineering investment reached 56.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.7% year-on-year, while the grid engineering investment was 52 billion yuan, an increase of 18.4% year-on-year [30] - The National Grid's investment in ultra-high voltage equipment is expected to see significant growth in 2025, with a projected annual investment exceeding 650 billion yuan [4] - The bidding results for the National Grid's transmission and transformation equipment show a total bid amount of 17.636 billion yuan, an increase of 12.7% year-on-year [60]

Group 1: Current Status and Challenges of Southeast Asia's Green Economy - Southeast Asia has made progress in green economic transformation, but there is still a gap to meet the 2030 climate goals, with emissions increasing and reliance on fossil fuels [2] - Renewable energy currently accounts for 9% of the energy mix, and the penetration rate of electric vehicles is low, indicating a lag in green investment and industrial development [2] Group 2: System-Level Solutions - The sustainable bioeconomy is crucial for Southeast Asia, with potential to reduce approximately 230 million tons of CO₂ equivalent emissions and create around 340,000 jobs by 2030 through enhancing smallholder productivity and developing sustainable biofuel production [3] - Upgrading the existing power grid to accommodate renewable energy is necessary, with an expected reduction of about 5,000 tons of CO₂ equivalent emissions and the creation of around 200,000 jobs by 2030 [3] - Implementing a dual strategy to stimulate demand and strengthen local production of electric vehicles could lead to a reduction of approximately 4,000 tons of CO₂ equivalent emissions and the creation of around 350,000 jobs by 2030 [3] Group 3: Supportive Solutions - Climate financing in Southeast Asia is growing but still faces a funding gap, necessitating innovative financing models and the development of blended finance to attract private capital [4] - The carbon market is essential for decarbonization, and while there has been progress, the market remains immature, requiring clearer rules and enhanced project approval processes [4] - Artificial intelligence can help reduce emissions by optimizing various industries and promoting sustainable data center solutions [4] Group 4: Regional Cooperation and Investment Opportunities - Strengthening regional cooperation in Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific region can facilitate resource sharing, technology transfer, and market expansion, particularly in the bioeconomy, power grid construction, and electric vehicle sectors [5] Group 5: Action Recommendations and Outlook - Collective action is needed, with businesses incorporating sustainability into their models, financial institutions providing funding support, and governments guiding investments through policy [6] - By implementing these measures, Southeast Asia's green economy is expected to achieve significant progress by 2030, contributing to global climate change efforts [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the photovoltaic and energy storage sectors, highlighting favorable policy developments and production stability [2][6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the positive impact of Shandong Province's new market-oriented pricing mechanism for renewable energy, which is expected to stabilize demand expectations for the second half of the year [6]. - It notes the potential changes in the European inverter market and suggests monitoring companies that may benefit from these shifts [6]. - The report highlights the increasing activity in offshore wind projects in China and the UK, indicating a growing market for related companies [2][9]. - It discusses the robust performance of the electric vehicle sector, particularly focusing on the launch of new models and the anticipated demand growth [3][12]. Summary by Relevant Sections Photovoltaic & Energy Storage - Shandong Province has released a comprehensive market-oriented pricing scheme for renewable energy, which is expected to support demand recovery in the second half of the year [6]. - The report indicates that May's component production is expected to remain stable, which is better than anticipated, contributing to market demand recovery [2][6]. - The European inverter market may undergo changes, with potential beneficiaries identified among Chinese companies [6]. Wind Energy - The Zhejiang deep-sea wind turbine bidding process has commenced, with expectations for construction to start within the year, indicating a positive trend in domestic offshore wind energy [9]. - The UK government has initiated reforms to its offshore wind bidding process, which may accelerate project demand [9]. Electric Grid - The report highlights the commissioning of the ±800 kV ultra-high voltage direct current transmission project in Gansu to Shandong, which is expected to enhance the performance of related companies [8]. - The first batch of framework bids for distribution network equipment in Southern China is valued at 5.4 billion yuan, indicating sustained high investment levels [8]. New Energy Vehicles & Lithium Batteries - The report notes that CATL's Hong Kong IPO has passed the hearing, signaling an expansion of the new energy sector's capital market activities [3][15]. - The electric vehicle market is expected to maintain strong demand, supported by new vehicle launches and favorable policies [12][16]. Hydrogen and Fuel Cells - The report indicates a long-term decline in hydrogen prices, with cities that have low hydrogen costs likely to promote commercial vehicle adoption [10]. - China has surpassed Japan in hydrogen-related patents, establishing itself as a global leader in the hydrogen energy sector [10].

Core Viewpoint - PJM Interconnection LLC warns of potential power shortages this summer due to extreme high temperatures, marking a significant concern for electricity supply in the region [1] Group 1: Company Overview - PJM Interconnection LLC is the largest electric grid company in the United States, serving approximately 20% of the population from the Midwest to the East Coast [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Forecast - PJM anticipates that its electricity supply will meet normal summer demand, but extreme weather conditions could push demand to 166 gigawatts [1] - The expected demand of 166 gigawatts would surpass the previous record of 165.6 gigawatts set in 2006 [1] Group 3: Capacity Concerns - PJM indicates that available generation capacity may fall below the required reserves under extreme conditions [1] - One megawatt typically powers 800 households in the PJM region [1]

这两天互联网上印巴话题热度急升，这两个都是中国的邻国，巴基斯坦号称巴铁，和咱们的关系走的亲 近些，印度和中国的关系比较复杂，有合作也有对抗，另外还是制造业上的潜在竞争对手，网民对他们 的总体印象不佳。 所以当新闻传来巴基斯坦用中国武器打掉了印度从法国、俄罗斯买来的飞机时，国内网民的情绪一下子 就被点燃了，这有点像修仙爽文里的情节，我给了小弟一件法宝，结果小弟用法宝痛揍了那个我早就看 不顺眼的瘪三，快乐加倍 不过现实中巴基斯坦和印度无论是军力还是综合实力，都有较大差距。印度的gdp是巴基斯坦的11倍， 人口14.3亿对2.4亿，外汇储备印度比巴基斯坦多了45倍。两国军费差了8倍，军队规模印度多了2倍，坦 克和飞机数量都多了60%。 哦对了，有个事顺带提一下，巴基斯坦股市今天大跌7.65%，盘中一度触发熔断，看起来是资金避险出 逃，但这个关注的人不多，毕竟巴基斯坦的股市规模太小了，总市值就3000多亿人民币，和印度差了近 百倍。 今天a股缩量了，1.29万亿，但中位数+0.75%还不错，底下缺口好几个但走势依然强劲。不知道是不是 受了印巴局势的影响，制造业板块全面上涨： 轨道交通+2.7%、通信+2.7%、通用设 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent nationwide blackout in Spain highlights the vulnerabilities in its electrical system, providing lessons for other countries as the world transitions to cleaner energy sources and faces new demands on the grid [1][2]. Investment in Grid vs. Renewable Energy - Spain's investment in its electrical grid has lagged behind its renewable energy investments compared to other European countries, with a significant increase in solar capacity over the past five years [1][3]. - Over the last five years, Spain spent an average of $1 on renewable energy for every $0.30 invested in grid infrastructure, while the average in most European markets is $0.70 [3]. Challenges of Renewable Energy Transition - The transition to renewable energy presents unique challenges, particularly due to the intermittent nature of solar and wind energy, which requires careful management to maintain grid stability [1][3]. - Spain's electrical grid, largely built decades ago, was not designed to handle the high volatility associated with renewable energy sources [7][11]. Investment Plans and Current Status - Red Electrica, the grid operator, has significantly increased its investment in the grid, planning to invest €1.1 billion ($1.2 billion) last year and €1.4 billion by 2025, with total investments exceeding €4.2 billion from 2021 to 2025 [4]. - The Spanish government aims to increase the share of clean energy in the grid to 81% by 2030, up from just over 50% last year [3]. Interconnection Issues - Spain is one of the least interconnected regions in Europe, with limited cross-border transmission lines that hinder its ability to stabilize the grid during outages [7][8]. - The current interconnection capacity with neighboring countries is approximately 3 GW, which is less than 3% of total capacity, while the EU aims for a 15% interconnection ratio by 2030 [8]. Need for Energy Storage and Stability - As reliance on renewable energy grows, Spain may need to invest more in energy storage solutions, as its installed battery capacity is significantly lower than that of the UK [11]. - The lack of "inertia" in the grid, traditionally provided by fossil fuel and nuclear power plants, poses challenges for maintaining frequency stability, especially during high solar energy usage [11][12].

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment outlook for the industrial control and power equipment sectors, highlighting stable growth and potential for new growth curves driven by humanoid and AI technologies [1]. Core Insights - The industrial control and power equipment industry experienced a revenue increase of 9% year-on-year and a net profit increase of 14% in Q1 2025, with total revenues reaching 204.7 billion and net profits at 14 billion [2][6]. - The overall gross profit margin for the industry faced pressure, recorded at 27.4% in Q1 2025, showing a year-on-year decline of 0.8 percentage points but an increase of 3.2 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [2][8]. - The report indicates a recovery in demand for industrial control in Q1 2025, with leading companies like Huichuan Technology exceeding profit expectations [2][26]. Summary by Sections Industrial Control Sector - The industrial control sector achieved a revenue of 28.2 billion in Q1 2025, marking a 27% increase year-on-year, with net profits rising by 33% to 2.5 billion [2][6]. - The gross profit margin for the industrial control sector was 28.3%, down 3.4 percentage points year-on-year but up 2.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2][8]. - Huichuan Technology reported a significant revenue increase of 38% and a net profit increase of 63% in Q1 2025 [2][26]. Power Equipment Sector - The power equipment sector's revenue for Q1 2025 was 118.8 billion, a 4% increase year-on-year, with net profits at 7.1 billion, reflecting a 6% increase [2][6]. - The gross profit margin for the power equipment sector was under pressure, with a slight decline in profitability observed [2][8]. - The report highlights that the high-voltage and ultra-high voltage segments are beginning to rebound, with revenue growth expected in the coming quarters [2][26]. Investment Recommendations - For the power grid sector, the report recommends companies such as Siyi Electric, Samsung Medical, and China West Electric, while suggesting a watch on companies like Huaming Equipment and Mingyang Electric [2][26]. - In the industrial control sector, recommended companies include Huichuan Technology, Hongfa Technology, and Sanhua Intelligent Control, with a focus on companies like Megmeet and Hechuan Technology for potential growth [2][26].

制造·掘金 年报一季报总结电话会议 20250504 摘要 • 风电行业一季度景气度回升，收入同比增长 15%，归母净利润同比增长 3%，为近三年首次。零部件环节盈利显著修复，全产业链存货和应收账款 周转加速，看好 2025 年量利齐升与业绩估值双击。 • 光伏主产业链仍处于景气筑底状态，但储能逆变器环节表现亮眼。一季度 硅片、电池片及硅片组件辅材环节毛利率明显修复，电池片环节率先实现 毛利转正。建议关注经营稳健的头部公司及供需关系良好的核心辅材。 • 新能源车受益于以旧换新政策和出海加速，一季度销量稳定增长。锂电板 块自去年二季度进入复苏阶段，今年一季度逐步进入繁荣期，库存周期从 被动去库向主动补库转移。推荐具备低成本路线和强爆款打造能力的车企。 • 锂电产业链中，高压实密度材料的磷酸铁锂和六氟磷酸锂，以及电芯结构 件、辅材、负极铁锂、三元前驱体隔膜等细分赛道值得重点关注。关注固 态电池产业化进度及布局机器人、半导体等第二增长曲线的公司。 • 电网板块稳步增长，2024 年营收增速约 12%-13%，净利润保持稳定增 长。出海和主网设备环节资本开支高速增长，2025 年一季度电力设备出 口同比增长 17%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of supporting the high-quality development of private enterprises in the energy sector, facilitating a comprehensive green and low-carbon transition in the economy and society [3]. Group 1: Challenges Faced by Private Enterprises - Private enterprises encounter high entry barriers and an unfair competitive environment in the energy sector, particularly in traditional oil, gas, and nuclear power fields, which are dominated by state-owned enterprises [4][5]. - Financing difficulties, including high costs and stringent requirements for loans, hinder private enterprises' investment in energy projects [5]. - Existing institutional mechanisms are inadequate to meet the development needs of new energy business models, with private enterprises lacking in innovation capabilities and high-end talent [5][6]. Group 2: Measures to Support Private Enterprises - The notification outlines specific measures to enhance support for private enterprises in energy investments, including participation in infrastructure projects and easing financing pressures [7][8]. - It encourages private enterprises to engage in new energy business models, such as distributed energy and smart microgrids, to leverage their innovative potential [10][11]. - The notification stresses the need for fair competition in the energy market, proposing measures to regulate monopolistic practices and ensure transparency in market operations [12][13]. Group 3: Implementation and Local Government Role - The notification emphasizes the importance of practical implementation of policies, including streamlining energy project approval processes and protecting the legal rights of private enterprises [14][15]. - Local energy management departments are urged to tailor measures to support private enterprises based on local conditions, fostering a conducive environment for their development [15].