2026年03月03日 版策 相关研究 证券分析师 刘雅婧 A0230521080001 liuyj@swsresearch.com 王雪蓉 A0230523070003 wangxr@swsresearch.com 牟瑾瑾 A0230524100002 mujj@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangshenq@swsresearch.com 研究支持 王雪蓉 A0230523070003 wanqxr@swsresearch.com 联系人 王雪蓉 A0230523070003 wangxr@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务 敢问梦想价值几何? -构建申万宏源策略"未来产业定价体系" 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 DCF 模型失效, 未来产业该如何定价? 随着 A 股包容性大幅提升, 传统上处于 Pre-IPO ● 阶段的早期科技企业，如今大量登陆二级市场。这些公司普遍：1）尚未盈利，甚至尚无 收入;2)不确定性高,技术路线远未收敛;3)梦想远大,无限可能。这些特征叠加,导 致传统 DCF 失效。本文通过构建"未来产业定价体系"，试图 ...

Core Viewpoint - North American CSP companies are accelerating capital expenditures, focusing on high-power servers, power systems, cooling, and networking equipment, indicating a significant increase in AI training and inference demand [1] Group 1: AI Industry Dynamics - The domestic AI application sector is rapidly expanding, with large-scale implementations expected to significantly increase the frequency of inference computing power usage, creating a reverse pull on upstream computing power and infrastructure [1] - The AI industry is transitioning from a "single-point computing power boom" to a collaborative expansion phase involving "computing power, infrastructure, and application ecosystem" [1] Group 2: Market Opportunities - The server, power equipment, data centers, and liquid cooling sectors, along with the domestic computing power supply chain, are positioned to benefit continuously from these trends [1] - Recent domestic AIDC tenders are beginning to emerge, with clear growth potential in the HVDC/SST industry trend, indicating a high market space and further value enhancement opportunities [1] Group 3: New Energy Sector - The Guotai New Energy ETF (159387) tracks the Innovation Energy Index (399266), which has a daily price fluctuation limit of 20%, selecting listed companies involved in clean energy, new energy vehicles, and energy storage technologies to reflect the overall performance of innovative and growth-oriented companies in the new energy sector [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for multiple companies across various sectors, indicating a positive outlook for their performance in the near future [12]. Core Insights - The technology sector is experiencing a significant shift towards AI applications, with traditional SaaS software facing headwinds due to the emergence of AI tools that automate various tasks [4][5]. - The demand for optical modules is expected to remain strong, with supply constraints leading to a focus on leading companies like Zhongji Xuchuang [6]. - The AI-driven inflation is affecting the electronics industry, with price increases observed in power devices and other components [7]. - The report highlights the importance of CPU performance in the Agentic AI era, suggesting that CPU shortages could enhance profitability for leading companies in this space [6]. - The advanced packaging industry is poised for growth due to increased demand driven by AI investments, with recommendations for companies like Longji Technology and Tongfu Microelectronics [8]. - Domestic computing power is expected to see significant opportunities, particularly with the launch of new generation chips [9]. - The IC substrate supply chain is facing bottlenecks, with recommendations for domestic companies that could benefit from price increases [10]. Summary by Sections Technology Sector - AI applications are gaining traction, leading to concerns about the impact on traditional SaaS [4]. - Major companies are releasing AI programming tools, enhancing productivity in various fields [5]. Optical Modules - Strong demand is anticipated in the optical module industry, with supply constraints favoring leading firms [6]. Electronics Industry - AI inflation is spreading, causing price hikes in various electronic components, particularly in power devices [7]. CPU Market - The performance of CPUs is becoming increasingly critical, with potential shortages expected to boost profitability for leading firms [6]. Advanced Packaging - The advanced packaging sector is expected to benefit from AI investments, with several companies recommended for investment [8]. Domestic Computing Power - New generation computing chips are set to launch, presenting significant opportunities for domestic firms [9]. IC Substrate Supply Chain - The IC substrate market is experiencing supply constraints, with recommendations for companies likely to benefit from price increases [10].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **semiconductor and electronics industry**, focusing on companies involved in **CPO (Chip-on-Board)**, **PCB (Printed Circuit Board)**, and **storage solutions**. Core Insights and Arguments - **CPO Developments**: AYZ has updated the RubinUltra CPO Scale up plan, leading to significant stock price increases for several companies: - 罗博特科 (Robotech) +20% - 炬光科技 (Juguang Technology) +18.06% - 致尚科技 (Zhishang Technology) +15.56% - 天孚通信 (Tianfu Communication) +13.21% [1] - **PCB Orders**: 威尔高 (Weilgao) has received a primary power order from Google, with a secondary power connection in progress, resulting in a stock price increase of +18.23% [1]. - **Domestic Computing Power**: There is a noticeable divergence in the market for GPUs and ASICs, with changes in the trading landscape for computing power chips. - 芯原 (Xinyuan) +9.11% - 灿芯 (Canxin) +5.59% - 寒武纪 (Hanwujing) -9.18% - 沐曦 (Muxi) -3.08% - 摩尔 (Moore) -2.65% [1] - **Storage Sector**: - 普冉 (Purang) +8% - 恒烁 (Hengshuo) +6% - There is a recovery in storage prices, with predictions of significant growth [1]. - **Profit Expectations**: - The GPU company 寒武纪 (Hanwujing) is expected to report profits slightly below expectations for Q4 2025, while 海光信息 (Haiguang Information) has not released performance forecasts. - The ASIC company 芯原股份 (Xinyuan Co.) is seeing project implementations that may improve performance trends, maintaining a bullish outlook [1]. - **Chip Packaging**: - 芯碁微装 (Xinqi Micro) is strongly recommended, with a market cap expected to exceed 450 million, and anticipated monthly deliveries of 2E equipment in Q1, indicating high growth potential [1]. - **Storage Growth**: 佰维存储 (Baiwei Storage) is projected to experience significant growth in 2026, with Q1 2026 performance expected to double compared to the previous quarter [1]. Additional Important Insights - **Advanced Packaging**: Samples for advanced packaging are being sent for testing to GPU clients, indicating ongoing innovation and demand in this area [2]. - **NAND Price Predictions**: Overseas institutions predict that the price of SanDisk NAND used for enterprise SSDs may see a quarter-over-quarter increase exceeding 100% in Q3 [2]. - **AI Chip Demand**: 菲利华 (Feilihua) is positioned to benefit from explosive demand for AI chip products from NVIDIA and Google, with expectations of becoming a leading player in the Q fabric market, targeting a market cap of 100 billion [2].

Market Overview - Bitcoin has dropped below $79,000, resulting in a market cap loss of $111 billion and 420,000 liquidations [1] - Silver experienced a significant decline, falling over 36% in a single day, marking the largest drop since 1980 [1] Federal Reserve Leadership Change - Trump's nomination of Waller as the new Fed Chair has caused market turmoil, as he is perceived as "hawkish" and less inclined to implement monetary easing [3] - This leadership change is likened to past events, such as Bernanke's appointment in 2008, which initially caused panic but eventually led to a market rally [3] Cryptocurrency and Precious Metals - Bitcoin's recent performance has disappointed many investors, as it has not consistently followed gold's price movements [3] - Investors are advised to limit their exposure to cryptocurrencies due to their high volatility and lack of clear valuation logic [3] A-Share Market Insights - CITIC Securities indicates that the wave of ETF redemptions is coming to an end, suggesting a shift from small-cap stocks to larger, quality companies [3] - The market is expected to transition back to blue-chip stocks, similar to trends observed in 2020 [3] Investment Strategies in Volatile Markets - The "Three No Principles" for long-term investors are emphasized: do not chase high prices, do not sell quality assets, and do not over-leverage positions [4] - The increase in value-added tax for the three major telecom operators from 6% to 9% may impact profits and dividends, but operators can mitigate this through pricing adjustments [4] AI Sector Developments - Tencent is accelerating its AI strategy, transitioning to a "smart ecosystem" approach, which is expected to enhance AI capabilities across various industries [4] - The AI sector is experiencing significant volatility, and investors are advised to focus on real demand rather than speculative narratives [5] Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - Local governments have set economic growth targets, with many adjusting consumption and investment goals downward, indicating a year focused on policy implementation [5] - Sectors such as renewable energy and high-end manufacturing are expected to benefit from strong policy support [5] Actionable Investment Recommendations - Investors are encouraged to focus on cyclical sectors (chemicals, non-ferrous metals) and technology (AI applications, domestic computing) while avoiding volatile assets like precious metals and cryptocurrencies [6] - Maintaining quality assets and employing a strategy of holding 30% of positions and gradually increasing exposure during market dips is recommended [6] Key Market Signals to Monitor - Important signals to watch include upcoming earnings reports from major US companies (Amazon, Google, Disney), US employment data, and the European Central Bank's interest rate decision, as these will influence market direction [7]

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance last week, with trading volume remaining high [1] Macroeconomic Data Analysis - In Q4 2025, actual GDP growth rate declined by 0.3 percentage points to 4.5%, with an annual growth rate of 5%, aligning with market expectations [3][18] - Net exports contributed positively to economic growth, increasing from 1.4% to 1.2%, while investment and consumption contributions decreased [18] - December retail sales growth fell for the seventh consecutive month, dropping from 1.3% in November to 0.9% in December, below the market expectation of 1.0% [18] - Fixed asset investment growth continued to decline in December, reaching -3.8%, also below market expectations [4][19] - Real estate development investment saw a significant drop, with cumulative year-on-year growth at -17.2% and monthly growth at -35% [19] Investment Outlook - The market is experiencing a divergence, with high trading volume and a slight decrease in financing levels [8][21] - Short-term views indicate a favorable liquidity environment, supported by a weak dollar cycle and gradual appreciation of the RMB, alongside active institutional funds [9][22] - Concerns about the end of the spring market rally are growing, but no significant policy tightening or fundamental deterioration has been observed [22] - Mid-term perspectives favor technology growth as a key direction, with expectations of gradual improvement in the economic fundamentals [10][23] - Long-term views highlight the ongoing U.S.-China strategic competition, with potential support for China's equity market from foreign capital inflows [11][25] Industry Insights - Defensive dividend sectors are entering an observation phase, while aggressive sectors may face pressure [12][26] - Continued focus on technology, particularly in AI and related fields, is expected to drive performance [12][26] - The market is likely to see opportunities in sectors benefiting from domestic demand and high economic activity, such as chemicals and construction materials [12][26]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the ability of US debt entities to leverage has significantly weakened, with deteriorating government leverage capacity and rising corporate and household leverage rates that are difficult to sustain [2][8] - It notes that the expansion capacity of US demand and credit is deteriorating, making it challenging for non-US economies to experience significant demand and credit expansion [2][8] - The report suggests that the deterioration of dollar debt expansion capacity may drive a long-term decline in major global high ROE industries [2][8] Group 2 - The report indicates that the recent rise in overseas commodities and technology stocks is essentially a risk-averse behavior of global financial capital in response to dollar debt issues [2][8] - It states that the deterioration of dollar credit implies chaos in global production, demand, and credit order, leading major global asset classes to gradually enter supply pricing, which may provide valuation premiums for production and non-US credit expansion capabilities [2][8] - The Chinese market is expected to be a slow and steady bull market in the long term, but it will experience significant volatility in the medium term due to the influence of the US [2][8] Group 3 - The report anticipates a style switch in the Chinese market within the next quarter, with assets driven by Chinese pricing expected to enter a long bull market, while US-priced assets may gradually become marginalized [2][8] - It expresses a long-term positive outlook on insurance, central state-owned enterprises, anti-involution, and Chinese internet companies [2][8] - In the short term, the report favors sectors such as space AI and domestic computing power [2][8] Group 4 - The report discusses the performance of the US PCE inflation, indicating a moderate inflation rate of 2.8% year-on-year for both PCE and core PCE in November 2025, aligning with market expectations [7][11] - It highlights that actual consumption expenditure in the US for November 2025 also showed a year-on-year growth of 2.6%, with core PCE consumption expenditure at the same rate [7][13] - The report notes a weakening in durable goods consumption, while dining and accommodation services showed resilience [7][13]

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance last week with major indices fluctuating and trading volume declining from high levels [1][8] Macro Data Analysis - China's exports in December increased by 6.6% year-on-year in USD terms, exceeding market expectations and also showing month-on-month growth [4][13] - For the entire year of 2025, exports are projected to grow by 5.5%, making it the largest contributor to economic growth among the three driving forces [4][13] - The strong export performance in December is attributed to sustained external demand during the global manufacturing cycle and a rush to export due to reduced domestic tax rebates [4][13] - The new export orders index for China's manufacturing PMI rose by 1.4 percentage points to 49.0% in December, while JPMorgan's global manufacturing PMI recorded 50.4%, indicating robust external demand [4][16] - Key export items included computers, integrated circuits, and automobiles, with the latter showing the strongest growth, potentially influenced by the EU's proposed minimum import price policy for Chinese cars [4][16] - ASEAN remains China's largest export destination [4][16] Short-term Market Strategy - The market is experiencing a cooling phase after a period of heightened enthusiasm, with a rapid decline in trading volume and financing levels [8][18] - Factors supporting the market include favorable liquidity conditions, a weak dollar cycle, and a gradual appreciation of the RMB [8][18] - The spring rally is driven by hotspots in commercial aerospace and AI applications, enhancing market risk appetite [8][18] - Regulatory measures have been implemented to cool down the market due to the rapid accumulation of risks from strong momentum [8][18] - The market's trading heat is quickly diminishing, and short-term thematic trends may enter a consolidation phase [8][18] Mid-term Market Outlook - Technology growth remains a favored direction, with expectations of improving economic fundamentals gradually accumulating [9][19] - The current economic fundamentals and technology narratives have not fundamentally changed, and the technology sector remains a priority for allocation [9][19] - Defensive dividend sectors may enter an observation period, with potential for fund allocation if aggressive sectors continue to face pressure [22] Long-term Market Perspective - The long-term dynamics of the US-China struggle are becoming clearer, with increasing skepticism about the US government's governance and institutional credibility [10][20] - Despite uncertainties in the US economic outlook and the Fed's interest rate cuts, the credit of the dollar remains intact [10][20] - The trend of long-term capital inflow into the Chinese equity market is expected to strengthen due to regulatory policies promoting passive investment products [10][20] - The increase in equity market profitability is likely to encourage residents to allocate more of their excess deposits into the stock market [10][20] Industry Insights - For defensive dividend sectors, a short-term observation period is recommended, with attention to potential fund allocation in response to worsening market sentiment [22] - In aggressive sectors, technology remains a key focus, particularly in AI and commercial aerospace, which are expected to continue driving performance [22] - The market should monitor the stabilization of AI applications and aerospace sectors for potential investment opportunities [22]

Market Overview - Today's market trading volume decreased by over 1 trillion compared to the same period yesterday, returning to the level of 3 trillion [1] - The significant reduction in volume is seen as a normal response to the unusual surge in trading volume caused by sudden news yesterday afternoon [1] - Regulatory pressure from yesterday has lowered trading sentiment, which is considered a normal phenomenon [1] Sector Analysis - The semiconductor sector showed a rebound in the afternoon, indicating that the market's rhythm remains unchanged, focusing on technology, commercial aerospace, domestic computing power, AI applications, and autonomous driving [1] - When technology stocks decline, resource stocks tend to rise, and vice versa, demonstrating a liquidity-driven market dynamic [2] - The resource sector experienced a divergence with external futures, as domestic metal prices fell in response to external market movements [2] Investment Strategy - The current strategy emphasizes caution, advising against blind chasing of high prices and suggesting to either take profits or hold positions after funds rotate and lift stocks [1] - The market liquidity is currently abundant, with opportunities for self-repair, and funds are concentrated in technology and resource sectors [2] - The consumer sector remains weak, but potential policy support is anticipated as the Spring Festival approaches, suggesting a low-positioning strategy for this sector [2]

Market Trends - The domestic market indices showed slight fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4,085.77, up by 0.05%, while the CSI 300 Index fell by 0.29% to 4,776.67 [4]. Industry Commentary: Communication - The communication industry outperformed in 2025, with a cumulative increase of 84.8%, ranking second among major sectors. Key segments included optical modules, liquid cooling, optical fibers, and satellite communications, with respective increases of 357.2%, 221.4%, 188.9%, and 160.2% [6]. - For 2026, the focus will be on overseas optical communications, domestic computing power, and commercial aerospace, which are expected to present high-low trading opportunities driven by event catalysts [6]. - The demand for 800G optical modules is projected to reach approximately 45 million units in 2026, doubling from 2025, with significant contributions from NV and ASIC [6]. Industry Commentary: Coal - The coal industry is expected to reverse the trend of internal competition, with a focus on controlling supply and improving profitability. The anticipated coal price for 2026 is around 720 RMB/ton, maintaining a tight balance [10]. - The report suggests that the "反内卷" (anti-involution) strategy will help stabilize coal prices and improve profitability, with a projected recovery in performance for the fourth quarter [10]. Industry Commentary: Photovoltaics - The price of polysilicon has increased, with average prices for dense materials rising to 54.0 RMB/kg, a 3.8% increase from the previous week. The total production of polysilicon in 2025 is estimated at 131.9 million tons, a decrease of 28.4% year-on-year [12]. - The average price of N-type battery cells has risen by 2.6% to 0.39 RMB/W, reflecting a response to inventory pressures and demand softness [14]. - The report highlights key companies to watch in the photovoltaic sector, including 隆基绿能 (LONGi Green Energy) and 晶澳科技 (JA Solar Technology) [14].