Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing pressure on the sales of pre-mixed drinks, while accelerating its layout in the whisky segment [1] - The overall consumption demand is under pressure, but the company's profitability remains relatively stable [5] - The company is focusing on high-quality and stable operations, with a successful response to new product launches in the pre-mixed drinks and whisky segments [7] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company's total revenue was 1.489 billion yuan, a decrease of 9% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 389 million yuan, down 3% year-on-year [4] - In Q2 2025, total revenue was 752 million yuan, a decrease of 9% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 208 million yuan, down 11% year-on-year [4] - The company's gross margin in Q2 2025 decreased by 1 percentage point to 71.00%, while the net profit margin decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 27.63% [5] Product Development - The company's sales revenue from alcoholic products in H1 2025 was 1.297 billion yuan, a decrease of 9% year-on-year, with sales volume down 13% to 15.0327 million boxes [6] - The pre-mixed drinks segment continues to expand, with successful new product launches such as the "358" product matrix and various whisky series [6] - The company has launched over 10 SKUs in the whisky segment, with ongoing upgrades to production bases [6] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve EPS of 0.71, 0.81, and 0.94 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 36, 31, and 27 times [7] - The company anticipates broad incremental space driven by the dual engines of the pre-mixed drinks and whisky segments [7]

Core Insights - The 23rd China International Wine Expo aims to promote high-quality development in the wine industry and explore innovation and digital transformation in the new consumption era [1][2] - The event will take place from October 17 to October 19, 2025, at the Wuhan International Expo Center, featuring over 20 high-profile and interactive specialized meetings and professional activities [1] Industry Trends - The wine consumption market is experiencing rationalization, personalization, youthfulness, and lower alcohol content, which are seen as new drinking trends rather than mere trends [2] - Companies are encouraged to focus on the preferences of young consumers and adapt their products and quality innovations accordingly [2] International Engagement - The expo will feature over 20 foreign embassies and international exhibition groups, with dedicated international exhibition areas for countries such as France, Italy, and Argentina [2] - The main forum will emphasize themes of co-existence, empathy, and sharing, highlighting the international character of the expo [2] Market Connection - The expo is expected to attract 50,000 professional attendees and 300,000 general visitors, showcasing its broad reach and strong professionalism [3] - A one-on-one business negotiation setup and digital tools will facilitate precise market connections for participating companies [3] Social Responsibility - The expo will launch a national rational drinking awareness week, marking it as the largest and most influential public welfare event in the domestic and international wine industry [3]

Group 1 - The 23rd China International Wine Expo will be held from October 17 to October 19, 2025, at the Wuhan International Expo Center, featuring over 20 high-profile and interactive events [1] - The expo aims to promote high-quality development in the wine industry, explore innovation and digital transformation, and create a platform for global wine culture [1] - Key events include the opening ceremony, the World Famous Wine Value Conference, and various professional competitions and seminars [1] Group 2 - The wine consumption market is shifting towards rationality, personalization, youthfulness, and lower alcohol content, indicating a new drinking trend rather than just a trend [2] - Companies should focus on the preferences of young consumers and adapt their products and quality innovations accordingly [2] - The expo will enhance international exchanges by inviting over 20 foreign embassies and international exhibition groups, with dedicated international exhibition areas [4] Group 3 - The expo is expected to attract 50,000 professional visitors and 300,000 general attendees, with a focus on core channel merchants and professional buyers [6] - A digital precision matching tool will be available to help exhibitors meet their business needs [6] - The expo will emphasize brand building and internationalization, attracting numerous well-known domestic and international wine companies [6] Group 4 - A nationwide rational drinking awareness campaign will be launched during the expo, marking it as the largest and most influential public welfare event in the domestic and international wine industry [6] - The theme "October in Jiangcheng, a date with fine wine" has been officially announced, promoting the event to the public [8]

Core Viewpoint - The price of 2025 53-degree 500ml Feitian Moutai has reached a record low, indicating a significant decline in the market for Moutai products, which is impacting the company's stock performance and raising concerns among investors [1][2]. Price Trends - On September 14, the wholesale reference price for 2025 53-degree 500ml Feitian Moutai dropped to 1770 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day, marking the lowest price since its launch [1] - The original box price remained at 1790 yuan, also a historical low, with both prices showing a cumulative decline of over 20% compared to their initial prices of 2220 yuan and 2255 yuan [1] - The wholesale price for the 1L "Kilo Moutai" is reported at 3300 yuan, down 18.92% year-to-date from the initial price of 3700 yuan, indicating a significant market adjustment [2] Stock Performance - Guizhou Moutai's stock price has been under pressure, with a slight decline of 0.49% on September 12, closing at 1516 yuan per share [2] - The stock has experienced a downward trend since the wholesale price first fell below 2000 yuan on June 11, with a series of price drops occurring over the following months [2] Retail Market Dynamics - Retail prices are showing aggressive trends, with some platforms listing the 2025 Feitian Moutai double bottle at 3400 yuan, equating to 1700 yuan per bottle, while "overseas versions" are priced as low as 1490 yuan [2] - Despite some listings above 2000 yuan, there is a noticeable increase in bargaining space for consumers [2] Company Response - During a performance briefing on September 12, an investor questioned the company's ability to accept prices below 1800 yuan ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival and inquired about potential adjustments to the previously announced 9% growth target [3] - The company's deputy general manager, Wang Li, stated that they are addressing market challenges through precise distribution strategies and maintaining a healthy channel inventory, expressing cautious optimism about future market conditions [3]

Core Insights - The article discusses the ongoing price war in the liquor industry, particularly in the e-commerce sector, leading to a significant drop in the average prices of various alcoholic beverages [1][2] - The data indicates a shift in consumer purchasing behavior towards lower-priced products across different categories, including baijiu, beer, and wine [4][6] Baijiu Market - In August, the sales distribution of baijiu on Kuaishou showed a decline in the 100-800 yuan price range, with the 100-300 yuan, 300-500 yuan, and 500-800 yuan segments dropping by 5%, 7%, and 1% respectively [2] - Conversely, the share of sales for baijiu priced below 100 yuan increased from 20.92% to 26.52%, while those above 800 yuan rose from 8.76% to 16.96% [2] - The top-selling baijiu brands in the 800 yuan and above category included Jinhuijiu and Wuliangye, indicating a growing demand for premium brands, although the majority of sales still came from private label or smaller brands [3] Beer Market - The proportion of beer sales priced below 100 yuan surged from 63.11% to 81.16%, while the 100-300 yuan segment fell from 36.67% to 17.42% [4][5] - The price sensitivity of consumers in the beer category has increased due to the ongoing price wars, leading to significant price reductions [5] - Major brands like Qingdao Beer and Heineken remain popular, alongside a growing interest in craft beers [5] Wine and Huangjiu Market - The sales of wine on Kuaishou remained stable, with 41.49% of sales occurring in the under 100 yuan category, slightly up from 39.27% [6] - Lafite continues to dominate the wine market, particularly in the 800 yuan and above segment, where it holds four out of the top five positions [6] - Huangjiu sales also reflected a downward price trend, with the under 100 yuan category rising from 15.73% to 21.13% [7] Overall Market Trends - The overall trend in the liquor market is a downward shift in consumer prices, influenced by the rise of new sales channels and e-commerce platforms [8] - Major brands are increasingly focusing on instant retail channels to attract younger consumers, indicating a significant shift in industry dynamics [8]

Group 1 - Guizhou Moutai's core product prices are experiencing unprecedented downward pressure, with the wholesale reference price for the 2025 53-degree 500ml Flying Moutai dropping to 1770 yuan, marking a decline of 10 yuan from the previous day and a cumulative drop of over 20% from the initial price of 2220 yuan [1][2] - The price decline has accelerated in recent months, with the wholesale price first falling below 2000 yuan on June 11, and subsequently dropping below 1900 yuan and 1800 yuan within a short period [1] - The market supply and demand dynamics are undergoing significant changes, posing serious challenges to Moutai's historically strong pricing system [1] Group 2 - The market performance of large-capacity products is also weak, with the wholesale price for the 53-degree 1L "Kilo Moutai" dropping 18.92% year-to-date, now at 3300 yuan, significantly below the official guide price of 3799 yuan [2] - There is a notable price inversion in the high-end liquor market, indicating a weakening overall demand for premium alcoholic beverages [2] Group 3 - Retail market price competition is intensifying, with some e-commerce platforms offering the 2025 Flying Moutai double bottle set at 3400 yuan, equating to a single bottle price of only 1700 yuan, and even lower prices for "overseas versions" [4] - Despite most mainstream e-commerce prices remaining above 2000 yuan, there is significant bargaining space, with actual transaction prices often lower than listed prices, reflecting strong dealer willingness to sell [4] - In response to ongoing price declines and market concerns, Guizhou Moutai's management stated that they are actively taking measures to address the situation, emphasizing a strategy of "scientific and precise distribution" and maintaining a healthy channel ecosystem [4]

Summary of Baijiu Co. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Baijiu Co. - **Industry**: Alcoholic Beverages, specifically focusing on pre-mixed cocktails and whiskey Key Points and Arguments Pre-mixed Cocktails Business - In the first half of 2025, the overall pre-mixed cocktail business declined by approximately 9%, while the "Mild Drunk" series achieved double-digit growth. The "Strong Refreshing" and "Refreshing" series experienced double-digit and single-digit declines respectively, indicating a shift in market preferences [2][3] - New products such as jelly cocktails and high-alcohol pre-mixed cocktails were launched in Q3 2025, with a sales target of 60 million yuan, aimed at stabilizing and improving performance [2][3] - The pre-mixed cocktail business has grown from around 1 billion yuan in 2018 to a projected 25-30 billion yuan by 2024, with significant contributions from the "Mild Drunk" and "Strong Refreshing" products [3][4] Whiskey Business Development - Baijiu Co. is actively developing its whiskey business, having launched products like "Bailide Blended Whiskey" and "Laizhou Single Malt Whiskey." The company expects to complete 85% of terminal distribution by the end of Q3 2025, although initial sales feedback has been lukewarm [2][5] - The Chinese whiskey market is estimated to be worth 5 to 6 billion yuan, with an average annual growth rate of 21% over the past 8 to 9 years. However, foreign brands dominate the market, accounting for over 70% of market share [2][7] - Baijiu Co. aims to leverage its local distribution system to change the current market dynamics dominated by foreign brands [2][8] Market Potential and Strategy - The company has over 500,000 barrels of base liquor reserves and is innovating by using Chinese yellow wine barrels for whiskey production. There is a potential resonance effect between pre-mixed cocktails and whiskey in consumer cultivation [2][9] - The whiskey market in China is still in its early stages, and significant marketing efforts are required to enhance consumer acceptance and penetration [12][15] - The company has invested heavily in project barrels since 2020, with a production capacity of 31,000 tons for vodka and 5,000 tons for whiskey, indicating strong production capabilities [4][13] Future Outlook - The recovery of the pre-mixed cocktail business depends on consumer spending power and the success of innovative product collaborations [4][14] - If whiskey products can generate significant incremental growth, the company's market value could increase substantially. The company has a comprehensive product matrix and is focusing on brand innovation to stabilize and gradually improve performance [6][11] - The potential for whiskey sales to reach half the size of the pre-mixed cocktail market (12.5 to 15 billion yuan) is anticipated as consumer awareness and distribution channels improve [11] Marketing and Consumer Engagement - Effective marketing strategies are crucial for whiskey, which requires time for consumer acceptance. The company plans to utilize thematic marketing to create buzz and engage younger consumers [15] - Key sales periods such as Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day, and Chinese New Year are critical for assessing market performance and consumer response [12][15] Additional Important Insights - The company has a strong innovation capability in new consumer categories, and monitoring its development dynamics is essential for potential investment opportunities [16]

Group 1: Market Overview - Global stock indices mostly rose last week, with the Asia-Pacific market leading, as the Hang Seng Tech Index surged by 5.3% [1] - The A-share market exhibited a V-shaped trend, with the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index both increasing by 2.1% [1] Group 2: Brokerage Strategies - CITIC Securities emphasizes that the current market rally is largely related to overseas exposure, recommending a focus on resources, new productive forces, and overseas expansion [1] - Huatai Securities' multi-dimensional timing model has achieved a cumulative return of 40.41% this year, continuing to favor A-shares, particularly in sectors like liquor, precious metals, banking, and oil [2] - Everbright Securities maintains a bullish outlook on the bull market, focusing on TMT sectors, citing reasonable market valuations and new positive factors emerging [2] Group 3: Capital Flows and Market Sentiment - CICC notes an acceleration of southbound capital inflows into Hong Kong stocks, with the Hang Seng Index surpassing 26,000 points, and suggests that fundamental structures remain a stable choice [3] - Xinda Securities identifies September as a watershed for fast and slow bull markets, indicating that the current bull market may have policy catalysts that could lead to a significant bull market [4] Group 4: Sector Focus - CITIC Jiantou highlights the importance of focusing on sectors with strong fundamentals, such as AI, new energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals, while also monitoring inflation trends [5] - Huaxi Securities believes that the A-share "slow bull" market will continue, with high-growth sectors likely to benefit from policy support and increased capital inflows [6] - Dongwu Securities recommends actively positioning in the AI industry chain, particularly in segments that may serve as "call options" due to potential breakthroughs [7] Group 5: Emerging Technologies - Galaxy Securities reports that the satellite internet sector is poised for growth, with advancements in satellite communication transitioning from "connectivity" to "intelligence," reshaping the industry [8]

Core Insights - The wholesale price of 2025 53-degree 500ml Feitian Moutai has reached a record low of 1770 RMB, down 10 RMB from the previous day, marking a cumulative decline of over 20% since the platform's launch [1][2] - The stock price of Kweichow Moutai (600519) has also been under pressure, closing at 1516 RMB per share on September 12, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.49% [1] - The retail prices on platforms like Pinduoduo and JD have shown aggressive pricing, with some listings as low as 1180 RMB per bottle, indicating a significant increase in bargaining space despite most e-commerce prices remaining above 2000 RMB [2] Price Trends - The price of 53-degree 1L "Kilo Moutai" has dropped to 3300 RMB, representing an 18.92% decline year-to-date, with a reduction of nearly 400 RMB from the initial price of 3700 RMB [1] - The decline in prices accelerated after the wholesale price first fell below 2000 RMB on June 11, with subsequent drops occurring rapidly over the following weeks [1] Market Response - During a recent earnings call, an investor questioned the company's ability to accept prices below 1800 RMB ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival and inquired about the potential adjustment of the previously announced 9% growth target [2] - The company's deputy general manager, Wang Li, responded that they are actively managing channel ecosystems and maintaining healthy inventory levels, expressing cautious optimism about market conditions as the holiday season approaches [2]

Group 1 - The 14th China (Guizhou) International Wine Expo concluded on September 13, achieving a total trade volume of 18.639 billion yuan, a 72.29% increase compared to the previous year [1] - The expo featured over 1,000 exhibitors from more than 40 countries and regions, showcasing over 20,000 products across 8 major exhibition areas [1] - The event included various activities such as the International Wine (Food) Carnival and the 2025 Guizhou Wine Expo Music Festival, aimed at promoting consumption and enhancing engagement [1] Group 2 - The Guizhou Wine Expo, established in 2011, is the only wine exhibition in China certified by the International Exhibition Association (UFI) and holds the Guinness World Record for the largest wine display [2] - Participation in the expo has led to significant growth for companies, with one exhibitor reporting a continuous annual sales growth of over 30% for three consecutive years [2] - The expo also hosted professional activities such as new product launches and the release of the China Wine Market Prosperity Index, which provides quantitative benchmarks for industry decision-making [2]