| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603650 | 彤程新材 | 59.96 | 10.00% | 39.43万 | 22.48 Z | | 920225 | 利通科技 | 36.81 | 3.81% | 5.47万 | 2.03亿 | | 300121 | 阳谷华泰 | 13.47 | 2.82% | 22.13万 | 2.95 亿 | | 605183 | 确成股份 | 20.40 | 2.77% | 2.88万 | 5849.54万 | | 300731 | 科创新源 | 52.30 | 1.26% | 7.04万 | 3.67亿 | | 002753 | 永东股份 | 7.35 | 1.10% | 9.03万 | 6597.58万 | | 001207 | 联科技 | 24.68 | 1.06% | 3.20万 | 7882.21万 | | 300767 | 震安科技 | 21.10 | 0.76% | 12.56万 | 2.70亿 | | 002224 | 三力士 | 4 ...

Group 1 - Current rubber spot prices are stable, with Thailand's STR20 at $1,930/ton, Malaysia's SMR20 at $1,920/ton, and Indonesia's SIR20 at $1,860/ton. Yunnan's SCR5 is quoted at ¥15,850/ton in Shanghai [1] - On January 15, the main futures contract for natural rubber closed at ¥15,995/ton, down 1.33%, with a daily trading volume of 365,272 contracts [2] - Malaysia's rubber export volume in November 2025 decreased by 14.7% year-on-year to 37,150 tons, with 50.8% of exports going to China. Imports also fell by 38.7% year-on-year [3] Group 2 - New Century Futures reports that high inventory levels and cautious downstream purchasing are leading to a market focused on inventory digestion. The macro environment has eased tensions, but rubber prices face upward resistance due to high inventory and seasonal demand decline [4]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 卓创资讯橡胶行业分析师 王媛媛 【导语】2025年是"十四五"规划的收官之年，也是橡胶行业较不平凡的一年。在这一年中，多数橡胶产 品价格跌至五年低位；天然橡胶高升水合成橡胶引发市场对替代需求的关注；同时，2025年橡胶行业继 续扩能加剧供应压力；轮胎企业在贸易政策扰动下海外布局加速。"跌价、替代、扩能、出海"贯穿2025 橡胶市场。 跌价：2025年橡胶价格重心整体下移，多产品创出近五年新低 2025年橡胶产品价格重心普遍下移，与2024年强势上涨的行情对比明显。卓创资讯监测数据显示，除天 然橡胶相对抗跌，价格处在近五年中等偏上水平外，其他产品均回落到了近五年低位水平，甚至部分产 品跌至近五年最低价。年内屡创近五年价格新低的产品有丁二烯及下游丁苯、顺丁、SBS、丁腈胶乳、 丁苯胶乳，以及炭黑、促进剂、防老剂。图1中所示，产品所对应的百分数（历史分位数）越小，代表 该产品2025年最低月均价在近五年（2021-2025年）月均价中所处的位置越低；如对应历史分位数为 0%，代表2025年最低月均价已跌至近五年最低位。 2025年橡胶产品价格走弱，主 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber and synthetic rubber are expected to operate weakly with a volatile trend in the short - term and medium - term, and show a weak performance intraday [1][5][7] Summary by Related Content Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Trends**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: weak; Overall: weak operation [1][5] - **Core Logic**: With the end of the war between Thailand and Cambodia, the expected decline in Southeast Asian rubber supply due to geopolitical risks has disappeared, weakening the bullish drive. Domestic Yunnan and Hainan rubber - producing areas are in the off - season, reducing the supply pressure of domestic full - latex. Southeast Asia is in the peak tapping season. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected. With the weakening of the rally in the energy and chemical sector, Shanghai rubber futures maintained a weakly volatile trend on Wednesday night and are expected to continue this way on Thursday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Trends**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: weak; Overall: weak operation [1][7] - **Core Logic**: Affected by the tight supply of northern goods and downstream replenishment demand, the spot price of butadiene has risen sharply. The rapid increase in raw material costs has squeezed the profits of synthetic rubber manufacturers, leading to reduced production or shutdown of some devices, decreasing the supply expectation. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected. Crude oil futures maintain a strongly volatile pattern, strengthening the cost support. With the weakening of the rally in the energy and chemical sector, the rebound momentum of domestic synthetic rubber futures weakened on Wednesday night and is expected to maintain a weakly volatile trend on Thursday [7]

【据美国有线电视新闻网(CNN)报道，美国总统特朗普12日在社交媒体发文称，任何与伊朗有商业往来的国家在与美国 进行任何商业往来时将被加征25%的关税。】 中东地缘政策持续发酵，伊朗局势动荡导致全球能源波动。2025年1月，由于伊朗原油禁止停靠山东港引发原料担忧， 对于市场整体行情形成较大的波动。对于目前地缘冲突再次升级，部分能化产品受到较大冲击。对于顺丁橡胶的影响 究竟有多大呢？ 首先，进口方面来看。2025年1-11月中国顺丁橡胶进口总量为25.44万吨，进口来源国依次是俄罗斯、韩国、日本、沙 特阿拉伯及中东某国等，分别占比为57.49%、13.62%、6.79%、4.62%、3.78%。自2022年俄乌冲突以来，由于地理位 置以及价格的优势，俄罗斯顺丁进口量长期居于首位。伊朗顺丁橡胶通过中东某国转口至中国的顺丁橡胶占比为 3.78%，虽然进口量占比位于前列，但由于俄罗斯顺丁橡胶的进口量体量远远超过伊朗顺丁橡胶，同时国内下游工厂对 于伊朗顺丁橡胶接受程度有限，因此对于中国市场影响较小。其次，中国顺丁橡胶自身供应来看。随着中国顺丁橡胶 产能不断增速，截至2025年中国顺丁橡胶总产能在217.2万吨，产能不断 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port continues to accumulate, with the accumulation rate narrowing but still at a high level. The inflow of rubber at Qingdao Port shows a seasonal decline, while the downstream rigid demand improves, increasing the overall outflow. - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased. Some enterprises had maintenance plans around the New Year's Day holiday, and some enterprises continued to control production. As the maintenance devices gradually resume, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may increase slightly this week. - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,700 - 16,400 in the short - term, and the nr2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,700 - 13,250 in the short - term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 16,160 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 13,015 yuan/ton, up 175 yuan. - The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 20 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the 2 - 3 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 45 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,145 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. - The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 199,737 lots, up 5,063 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 70,673 lots, up 511 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 55,451 lots, down 2,000 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 13,094 lots, up 1,997 lots. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 105,590 tons, unchanged; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 57,758 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 15,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 16,050 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. - The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,910 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,905 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,050 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,000 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 12,100 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 12,100 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 310 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 925 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,320 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 305 yuan/ton, down 246 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 60 Thai baht/kg, down 0.09 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 56.35 Thai baht/kg, unchanged. - The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 57.5 Thai baht/kg, up 0.5 Thai baht; the market reference price of cup rubber of Thai raw rubber is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 24 US dollars/ton, up 21 US dollars. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 16.88 million tons, up 4.27 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 30.22 million tons, up 4.58 million tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 58.02%, down 1.53 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 65.89%, down 3.46 percentage points. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 44.62 days, down 2.43 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 47.36 days, up 0.31 days. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, up 0.59 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, up 6.63 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 14.21%, up 0.73 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 13.54%, down 0.09 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.28%, up 1.52 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.27%, up 1.53 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In December 2025, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. In 2025, the domestic heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles. - As of January 11, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 568,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,800 tons, an increase of 3.62%. The bonded area inventory was 93,500 tons, an increase of 6.14%; the general trade inventory was 474,700 tons, an increase of 3.13%. - As of January 8, the capacity utilization rate of the Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.78%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.97 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of the all - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.50%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.43 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.37 percentage points [2].

Core Viewpoint - The rubber sector experienced a slight increase of 0.28% on January 14, with significant contributions from companies like Sanwei Equipment, while the overall market showed mixed results with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.31% and the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.56% [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4126.09, down 0.31% [1]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14248.6, up 0.56% [1]. - The rubber sector stocks showed varied performance, with notable gainers including Yiwang Equipment (+4.20%) and Zhongyu Technology (+2.95%) [1]. Group 2: Stock Performance - Yiwang Equipment (code: 920834) closed at 16.88 with a rise of 4.20%, trading volume of 73,500 shares and a transaction value of 124 million yuan [1]. - Zhongyu Technology (code: 920694) closed at 21.98, up 2.95%, with a trading volume of 35,100 shares and a transaction value of 76.31 million yuan [1]. - Other notable performers included KQ Shares (+2.24%) and Kexin New Source (+1.91%) [1]. Group 3: Capital Flow - The rubber sector saw a net outflow of 248 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 228 million yuan [2]. - The main funds showed a net inflow in stocks like Shuangjian Shares (1,777.69 million yuan) and Kexin New Source (1,596.22 million yuan) [3]. - Retail investors had significant net inflows in stocks such as Shuangjian Shares and Kexin New Source, despite overall net outflows from main funds [3].

橡胶产业在柬埔寨出口结构中的支柱地位进一步巩固，其在全球供应链中的竞争力持续增强。 据海关总署最新报告，2025年柬埔寨橡胶及橡胶制品出口额达20.7亿美元，较2024年的15.1亿美元增长 36.9%；与2023年的9.2亿美元相比，增幅高达124.8%，实现连续两年高速增长。 柬埔寨橡胶产业持续展现强劲韧性。2025年，橡胶及橡胶制品出口额突破20亿美元，同比增长超三成。 ...

Core Insights - The demand for carbon black products is increasing due to global economic development and industrialization, with applications in rubber, plastics, inks, and coatings [2] - The carbon black industry faces pressures from environmental protection, necessitating a balance between market demand and sustainable development in pricing strategies [2][3] Market Demand - Market demand fluctuations are a primary factor influencing carbon black pricing, requiring adjustments to maintain supply-demand balance and market stability [2] - The N219 carbon black is widely used in rubber and plastic production, making it essential to monitor market demand changes in these sectors for timely price adjustments [2] Sustainable Development - Sustainable development is crucial for carbon black pricing strategies, as production generates significant CO2 emissions, impacting the environment [3] - Companies are encouraged to adopt clean production technologies and energy-saving measures to enhance resource efficiency and environmental friendliness [3] Supply Chain Collaboration - The carbon black industry involves complex supply chain dynamics, necessitating stable and reliable partnerships across various production stages [3] - Establishing good cooperation within the supply chain can enhance overall industry efficiency and promote mutual benefits among companies [3] Government Policy Support - Government policies play a vital role in supporting carbon black pricing strategies through regulation and management to ensure healthy industry development [3] - Financial and tax incentives from the government can encourage investments in environmental facilities and technological innovation, steering the industry towards greener, low-carbon practices [3]

市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15975元/吨，较前一日变动-155元/吨；NR主力合约12840元/吨，较前一日变动-170 元/吨；BR主力合约12000元/吨，较前一日变动-70元/吨。 化工日报 | 2026-01-14 原料价格坚挺，橡胶生产利润低迷 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格15700元/吨，较前一日变动-100元/吨。青岛保税区泰混15050元/吨，较前一 日变动-80元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1910美元/吨，较前一日变动-10美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1840 美元/吨，较前一日变动-20美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格12100元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江传 化BR9000市场价11850元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 市场资讯 根据第一商用车网初步掌握的数据，2025年12月份，我国重卡市场共计销售9.5万辆左右（批发口径，包含出口和 新能源），环比2025年11月下降约16%，比上年同期的8.42万辆增长约13%。纵观2025年全年，我国重卡市场实现 了九连涨，从4月份一直涨到12月份，平均增速高达41%。 2025年11月中 ...