交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2026-3-25） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 利 多：1.铁水产量上涨 2.供应难有增量 利 空：1.焦钢企业对原料煤采购放缓 2.钢材价格疲软 每日观点 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：煤矿多保持正常生产，供应有序释放。伴随多地焦企对焦炭价格开启第一轮提涨，矿方情 绪向好，近期焦煤线上竞价无流拍现象，竞拍市场多数煤种溢价成交，加上矿方库存有所去化，出货压 力也明显减小，考虑到目前下游采购意愿未减，煤矿仍有继续探涨意愿；偏多 2、基差：现货市场价1240，基差-9.5；现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：钢厂库存820万吨，港口库存258万吨，独立焦企库存893万吨，总样本库存1971万吨，较上 周减少243万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线上方；偏多 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical conflicts cause repeated disturbances. Coal and coke prices fluctuate sharply following crude oil prices. The ongoing US - Iran conflict and tight liquidity of some spot varieties make iron ore futures and spot prices strong. Affected by the expected energy - saving and emission - reduction production cuts in the industry, the manganese - silicon futures rose strongly but then fell back from the high level. Currently, steel inventories are at a high level, the peak - season expectations are still cautious, there is still expected pressure on coking coal warehouse receipts, and the supply - demand surplus pattern of glass and soda ash remains unchanged. After the sector prices rise, there is still a risk of decline. Attention should be paid to the disturbances from the geopolitical end and the iron ore supply end [1]. - Overall, the peak - season expectations are cautious, and the upward drive from the real - world end remains to be verified. There are still uncertainties in domestic and foreign macro - expectations and geopolitical disturbances. If the geopolitical conflicts continue, the price support will be strong; if the conflicts ease, the prices may face a correction [6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - The ongoing US - Iran conflict and tight liquidity of some spot varieties support iron ore futures and spot prices. The supply - demand remains loose, and it is difficult to see overall inventory reduction, which suppresses the upper - limit valuation of prices. Iron ore is expected to show an oscillatory performance. In the short term, scrap steel arrivals remain stable overall, but the recovery of long - process demand is slow, and the fundamentals continue in a weak balance, with short - term oscillation expected [2]. 3.2 Carbon Element - In the short term, the supply and demand of coke both increase, and the resumption speed of hot metal production may be faster. The price of the spot cost end continues to rise, and the expectation of a successful spot price increase for coke is strong. The futures are expected to follow the coking coal at the cost end. Under continuous geopolitical disturbances, the energy substitution logic will still be the focus of coking coal futures trading. In the short term, coking coal and coke are prone to rise and difficult to fall. However, if the geopolitical conflicts ease and trading returns to the fundamentals, there will still be correction pressure on the coking coal and coke futures [2]. 3.3 Alloys - Under the current geopolitical environment, the logic of rising manganese ore import costs and the expectation of rising electricity costs for high - energy - consuming varieties are difficult to disprove. However, based on the fundamentals of loose supply - demand, high inventories, and difficult cost transmission for manganese - silicon, in the medium - to - long term, there is still a risk of correction for the valuation level of the futures higher than the cost. For ferrosilicon, the problem of over - capacity is still relatively serious. The continuous repair of industry profits may accelerate the resumption of production by manufacturers, making the supply - demand relationship gradually turn loose. In the medium - to - long term, there is still a risk of correction when the futures valuation is significantly higher than the cost [2]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expected disturbances in glass supply, but the inventories of middle - and downstream are moderately high. From a fundamental perspective, the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If production and sales cannot continue to improve, high inventories will always suppress prices. The short - term supply of soda ash is stable at a high level, and the overall supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [3][6]. 3.5 Individual Product Analysis - **Steel**: Cost support is strong. Pay attention to peak - season demand. Spot trading is average. After the weakening of environmental protection restrictions, iron - water production has rebounded rapidly, and electric - furnace production has gradually recovered to the pre - holiday level. The overall supply of the five major steel products has rebounded from a low level, mainly in the building materials category. Demand shows resilience, and steel has started to reduce inventories, but the overall inventory level is still moderately high. Geopolitical risks increase energy valuation, and the cost end has strong support, but the high inventory and cautious peak - season expectations limit the upward drive of prices [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures are oscillating at a high level, with repeated geopolitical disturbances. Overseas mine shipments have increased month - on - month, and arrivals have recovered. The US - Iran conflict affects the shipment and arrival rhythm, and high crude - oil prices increase shipping costs. The overall supply - demand is loose, but the pressure is difficult to be reflected in trading. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the new CEO of BHP, the US - Iran conflict, and the sensitivity of iron - ore prices [8][9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The fundamentals continue in a weak balance, and the spot price has a narrow - range correction. Scrap - steel arrivals are stable overall, but the recovery of long - process demand is slow. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the actual recovery progress of terminal demand [10]. - **Coke**: Cost support is strong, and the bullish sentiment is strong. The futures follow coking coal and oscillate at a high level. After the lifting of restrictions, both supply and demand have recovered. The cost has been rising, and the expectation of a successful spot price increase is strong. The futures are expected to follow coking coal [11]. - **Coking Coal**: The auction prices continue to rise, and the futures are oscillating at a high level. The energy substitution logic is the focus of trading. Domestic supply has room for a small increase, and imports remain high. After the lifting of restrictions, coke production has increased, and upstream coal - mine inventories have decreased. In the short term, coking coal and coke are prone to rise and difficult to fall, but there is correction pressure if geopolitical conflicts ease [12]. - **Glass**: Real - world demand is weak, and production and sales have weakened month - on - month. Supply may be disturbed, and middle - and downstream inventories are moderately high. The supply - demand is in surplus, and high inventories suppress prices. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [13]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply - demand is still in surplus, and macro factors dominate fluctuations. Supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply - demand is in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the supply - surplus pattern will intensify in the long run, with the price center declining [15]. - **Manganese - Silicon**: Affected by the expected production cuts, the futures rose and then fell. The actual production - control intensity remains to be seen. The cost is expected to rise, and demand may improve, but the supply - demand surplus pattern is difficult to reverse, and there is a risk of correction in the medium - to - long term [16]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The cost expectation is strong, but the valuation support is insufficient. The electricity - cost increase expectation is strong, and demand may improve. However, over - capacity is serious, and the supply - demand may turn loose. There is a risk of correction in the medium - to - long term [18].

Group 1: Amazon (AMZN.O) Analysis - The cloud computing industry is entering the AI inference era, with a shift in value focus towards cloud vendors. The core technology trend is moving from reliance on Nvidia GPU and InfiniBand hardware stacks to diversified hardware technologies, including self-developed ASIC chips and AI network architectures [2][12] - Amazon AWS is expected to gain a competitive advantage in the inference era due to its self-developed chips and strategic partnerships with leading AI model companies. The self-developed Trainium chip is improving profitability, and the Bedrock platform is enhancing the AI PaaS ecosystem [12][2] - Amazon's e-commerce business maintains a significant competitive edge due to its logistics network and extensive merchant resources, despite potential disruptions from AI applications [12][2] - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Amazon, setting a target price of $271.5, anticipating AWS to contribute 20% of total revenue and 57% of operating profit by 2026 [12][2] Group 2: PCB Drill Needle Industry Analysis - The PCB drill needle market is highly concentrated, with a CR5 of 75%. The market is expected to follow the PCB industry trends, showing a "cyclical fluctuation and spiral rise" characteristic, with a projected global market size of 4.5 billion yuan by 2024 [3][11] - The demand for AI PCBs is driving rapid growth in the PCB drill needle industry, leading to accelerated consolidation and technological upgrades. Major manufacturers in mainland China, Taiwan, and Japan dominate the market [11][3] - High-end PCB demand driven by AI is raising requirements for drill needles, with advancements in materials and technology leading to increased prices and performance expectations [13][11] - Key players in the industry include Ding Tai Gao Ke, which holds a 28.9% market share, and other notable companies like Zhong Tung Gao Xin and Wo Er De [11][13]

黑色建材日报 2026-03-25 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3145 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 9 元/吨（-0.28%）。当日注册仓单 63614 吨, 环比增加 3659 吨。主力合约持仓量为 126.35 万手，环比减少 87899 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3210 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3240 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力 合约收盘价为 3324 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 6 元/吨（-0.18%）。 当日注册仓单 521912 吨, 环比减少 294 吨。主力合约持仓量为 102.43 万手，环比减少 31099 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从汇总价格为 3300 元 /吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3300 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 【策略观点】 昨日商品指数延续高位震荡，成材价格整体维持震荡偏强运行。宏观方面，1—2 月房地产数据表现依旧偏 弱：房地产开发企业房屋施工面积 535372 万平方米，同比下降 11.7%，其中住宅施工面积 371347 万平方 米，同比下降 11.9%；房屋新开工面积 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The possibility of the end of the US - Iran war has significantly increased, leading to a weakening of the US dollar index, a rebound in A - shares, and a general rise in various assets. The market's risk preference is in a state of shock. For commodities, different sectors have different trends and influencing factors, such as steel prices being affected by cost and demand, and copper prices being affected by macro and fundamental factors [1][2][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US intends to propose a one - month cease - fire to discuss a 15 - point agreement with Iran. The possibility of the end of the US - Iran war has significantly increased, and the US dollar index is expected to weaken in the short term [1][12][15]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - A - shares had a volume - shrinking rebound due to the easing of the US - Iran situation. If the navigation of the Strait of Hormuz can be restored through negotiation, the stagflation trade may reverse, and equity opportunities will emerge. Currently, due to high uncertainty, it is recommended to wait and add positions on dips [2][17][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 17.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and will conduct 500 billion yuan of MLF operations. The market has carried out TACO trading, with various assets generally rising. It is necessary to closely monitor the war situation and take a wait - and - see approach [3][19][20]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Mexico and South Africa have made anti - dumping rulings on Chinese steel products. Steel prices are oscillating. The lack of clear fundamentals and the influence of Trump's statements and the Middle East situation have led to market fluctuations. The short - term price increase is mainly driven by cost, and the upside space is limited [4][22][26]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The power coal market in Shaanxi is strong. The coking coal spot market has a good trading atmosphere, with prices rising. In the short term, the international oil price and downstream replenishment support the coking coal price, but in the long term, the lack of terminal demand and sufficient supply may suppress the price [27][28][29]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - US and Vietnamese textile and clothing imports and exports have different trends. The domestic textile industry is in good condition, with sufficient orders. However, there are concerns about import yarn, policy tools, planting area, and the macro - economic situation. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate in the short term and may adjust downward from April to May [31][33][34]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory of corn in the four northern ports has increased, and the sales progress of the grassroots has recovered. The supply is increasing, and the downstream demand has rigid support. The policy provides a bottom - support for the corn price. Corn is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [35][37][38]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Dazhong Mining plans to invest in a lithium salt project. The lithium export ban in Zimbabwe has not been lifted as expected. The supply of lithium ore is tight, and the demand for new energy vehicles is expected to improve. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips after a correction [39][40][41]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Platinum) - The prices of platinum and palladium rebounded slightly. The market follows macro - fluctuations. The supply is relatively rigid, and the demand has some support. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of platinum's oversold rebound, use options, and pay attention to the opportunity of long platinum and short palladium [41][42][43]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The lead price is oscillating at a low level. The LME inventory and domestic social inventory are decreasing. The terminal consumption is facing the off - season. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium - term [44][45]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc price is oscillating at a low level. The LME inventory and domestic social inventory are decreasing. The zinc price has long - term technical support. It is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize and the volatility to decline, and then pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium - term [46][47]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Atalaya's copper production in the first quarter is slightly lower than planned. The macro - factors are complex and changeable, and the fundamentals show internal - external differentiation. The copper price is expected to oscillate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to the internal - external positive arbitrage [48][51]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The LME tin is at a discount. The domestic warehouse receipts are decreasing, and the spot is at a premium. The supply and demand are both weak, and the tin price is oscillating widely due to the influence of the US - Israel - Iran conflict [52][54]. 3.2.11 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The domestic LPG spot price is stable, with some low - price areas having a supplementary increase. The market is affected by the news of the US - Iran negotiation. It is necessary to pay attention to the risk of price fluctuations [55]. 3.2.12 Energy Chemicals (LLDPE) - The inventory of polyethylene social sample warehouses is decreasing. The downstream enterprises maintain rigid procurement, and the supply has a gap. It is recommended to take a bullish - oscillating view [56][57][58]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The inventory of asphalt refineries is decreasing, and the social inventory is increasing. The asphalt price is affected by the oil price and the geopolitical situation. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [58][59]. 3.2.14 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The US - Iran situation has a impact on the oil price and the container freight rate. The near - month and far - month contracts have different logics. It is recommended to maintain a bullish - oscillating view and pay attention to the US - Iran situation [60][61].

Group 1 - The bank forecasts QHD5500 coal prices for 2026 to be 750 RMB, 720 RMB, and 670 RMB per ton, reflecting a tightening global energy market and slight impacts from Indonesia's quota reductions [1] - China Shenhua (601088) has a target price of 48.6 RMB for A-shares and 48 HKD for H-shares, rated "Neutral" [1] - Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188) has a target price of 11.4 HKD, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225) has a target price of 22.8 RMB, both maintaining a "Sell" rating due to current stock prices exceeding fundamental valuations [1] Group 2 - UBS reports that the annual price for Chinese thermal coal in 2026 is expected to be between 750 to 800 RMB per ton, with price increases likely during the summer replenishment window in May and June [2] - The potential for prices to briefly test 900 RMB per ton exists under tight supply conditions, but the likelihood of sustained increases is low due to China's responsive policy coordination capabilities [2]

Core Viewpoint - Jiutai Bonda Energy (02798.HK) reported a significant decline in annual performance for the year ending December 31, 2025, with revenues expected to be approximately RMB 1.206 billion, a decrease of about 29.3% compared to RMB 1.706 billion in 2024 [1] Financial Performance - The total loss and comprehensive expenses for the year are approximately RMB 198 million, contrasting with a profit and comprehensive income of about RMB 440 million in 2024 [1] - Basic loss per share is expected to be around RMB 0.1236, compared to earnings per share of RMB 0.2751 in 2024 [1] - The company does not recommend declaring a final dividend for the year ending December 31, 2025, while no dividend was declared in 2024 [1] Product Strategy - The company continues to focus on premium coal as its main product, maintaining a strategy to stabilize the proportion of premium coal in its product mix [1] - Revenue generated from premium coal sales is expected to account for approximately 86.8% of total revenue for the year ending December 31, 2025, down from about 90.9% in 2024, indicating a slight decrease in revenue contribution from this segment [1]

Macro - The global order is being reshaped due to the collapse of "trust," leading to increased wealth disparity and high debt levels, undermining globalization [4] - The decline in dollar credit is causing a decoupling of gold and dollar interest rates, signaling a return to a multipolar currency system, with gold entering a historic long-term bull market [4] - The key macro focus for 2026 is "stabilizing prices," with weak domestic demand necessitating increased fiscal support and continued interest rate cuts [4] - The recovery of consumer wealth, income, and expectations is crucial for consumption rebound, with financing growth being an important leading indicator of demand [4] Strategy - Stability is identified as the underlying theme for the Chinese stock market, with expectations of new heights following the storm [7] - Emerging technology is highlighted as a main focus, with value sectors also expected to see a revival [7] - Investment themes should concentrate on new forms of intelligent economy and transformation opportunities [7] New Stock Research - The upcoming reforms in the ChiNext board are expected to enhance the IPO issuance process, supporting innovative enterprises in new industries and technologies [13] - In January-February 2026, new stock issuance was steady, with an average first-day increase of 189.23% for newly listed stocks [13][14] - The number of IPOs is projected to accelerate in 2026, with an estimated total of 90 to 150 new listings, raising approximately 150 billion yuan [14] Fixed Income - The bond market is influenced by economic data and input inflation, with a cautious approach to interest rate cuts expected [17] - The demand for bonds is supported by banks, insurance, and wealth management funds, although there is insufficient pricing power for ultra-long bonds [17] - Strategies in the bond market should adapt to a low-interest rate environment, focusing on multi-asset allocations [17] Real Estate - The sequence of industry recovery is clear, with policy expectations strengthening [22] - The focus during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period will be on high-quality development, with a shift from negative to neutral outlooks for certain asset prices [22] - Companies with strong land acquisition capabilities and low inventory are recommended for investment [22] Building Materials - The building materials sector is expected to find independent growth opportunities despite macroeconomic challenges [24] - Cement demand is anticipated to stabilize, with supply-side adjustments expected to optimize the market [25] - The consumption building materials segment is seeing a divergence in performance, with some companies showing resilience and strong dividend yields [26] Transportation - The aviation sector is entering a "super cycle," driven by steady demand growth and supply constraints [49] - The oil transportation industry is expected to experience a "super bull market," with high demand and limited supply [52] - The highway sector is projected to see stable traffic demand and dividend stability, with ongoing policy optimizations [56] Express Delivery - The express delivery industry is expected to maintain resilient growth, with a focus on small parcel trends [60] - Regulatory measures are stabilizing pricing, which is anticipated to improve profitability for e-commerce delivery companies [61] Non-ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals sector is shifting from traditional demand drivers to structural demand from new energy and AI [64] - Precious metals are expected to benefit from geopolitical risks and inflation concerns, while industrial metals face tight supply-demand balances [64] Petrochemicals - The refining industry is poised for a "cycle + growth" resonance, with tightening supply-demand dynamics [69] - Geopolitical risks are expected to drive oil prices higher, impacting the petrochemical market [69]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the impact of crude oil price changes on inflation, bonds, and mid - level industry profits. It estimates the potential increase in crude oil prices under different scenarios of the Strait of Hormuz blockade, and details the effects on inflation in the US and China, as well as the performance of US Treasury bonds and Chinese bonds. It also examines how crude oil price changes affect the cost and profit of mid - level industries [3][4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Crude Oil Supply Loss Assessment and Price Limit Deduction - Before the Middle East geopolitical conflict, about 24 million barrels per day of various oil products (mainly crude oil) from major Middle Eastern oil - producing countries were exported through the Strait of Hormuz. After the blockade, the total oil product exports from the Strait of Hormuz dropped to about 13.72 million barrels per day, with an actual supply loss of about 14 million barrels per day (subject to correction by factors such as production increases in other countries, "reserve releases" by IEA member countries, and refinery load reduction). - Using the average Brent price of about $71 per barrel in February before the war as the starting point, if the blockade lasts for 8 - 12 weeks, the Brent oil price central range may be between $86 - 95 per barrel at the lower bound and $85 - 123 per barrel at the upper bound. If the blockade extends to 16 weeks, Brent is likely to stabilize in the $100 - 105 per barrel range and may challenge the 2022 high of $140 per barrel [3][8][9]. 3.2 Impact of Crude Oil Prices on US Inflation, Inflation Expectations, and US Treasury Bonds 3.2.1 Four Weeks into the War: Major Asset Pricing of Risks Remains Relatively Restrained - The current situation has evolved into a more intense and long - lasting conflict. Major asset markets' responses to risks are relatively muted compared to the 2022 situation. The real - time supply gap caused by the Strait of Hormuz blockade is the core factor affecting the market, and the spot market for energy and chemical industries is experiencing a supply shortage [13][15]. 3.2.2 Crude Oil - Inflation Transmission: Using a Macro Model to Analyze the Impact of Oil Prices on Inflation - If crude oil prices rise by $10, $20, $30, or $50, the year - on - year CPI increase in the first quarter will be 0.15%, 0.3%, over 0.4%, and 0.7% respectively, and in the second to fourth quarters, it will be 0.2%, 0.4%, nearly 0.6%, and 0.95 - 1.0% respectively [20][22]. 3.2.3 The " $100 per Barrel" Watershed Effect: Regression Analysis of Brent Crude Oil Year - on - Year, CPI Year - on - Year, and Inflation Expectations - The regression analysis shows that the year - on - year change in US CPI can be explained by about 17% of the change in crude oil prices. When the oil price exceeds $100, inflation expectations will deviate significantly from the linear regression level. Currently, inflation expectations are underestimated, and there is an upward adjustment space [26][30][31]. 3.2.4 US Treasury Bond Market Strategy: The Impact of Inflation + VaR Risks May Not End - Currently, the pricing of inflation expectations in the US Treasury bond market is insufficient. The Strait of Hormuz issue remains unresolved, and oil prices still have upward risks. The Back structure of the inflation curve will flatten the US Treasury bond yield curve. In a "stagflation" environment, ultra - short - term Treasury bonds show a "cash is king" characteristic [40][41]. 3.3 Impact of Crude Oil Prices on Chinese Inflation and Chinese Treasury Bonds - The correlation between crude oil prices and China's PPI is as high as 0.78, while the correlation with CPI is only 0.21. If oil prices rise by 10%, China's PPI will rise by about 0.66 percentage points. In different scenarios where the average crude oil price rises to $100 - $150 per barrel, the corresponding PPI readings will range from 2.3% to 6.7% [50][53]. - In the scenario of rising crude oil prices and increasing inflation pressure, macro - control should focus on cost relief and structural optimization on the supply side. In the scenario of oil prices rising and then falling, policies will focus on boosting domestic demand. In both stagflation and slow - recovery scenarios, risks in interest - rate bonds need to be vigilant. The report maintains a defensive strategy for interest - rate bonds, recommending flexible strategies such as hedging at high prices, positive arbitrage at appropriate times, and stage - based long - position in inter - period spreads [54][55][60]. 3.4 Impact of Crude Oil Prices on Mid - level Industry Profits 3.4.1 Cost Side: Industries Sensitive to Crude Oil Price Increases - Industries that directly consume crude oil in production are mainly concentrated in petroleum refining and petrochemicals. Industries that indirectly consume crude oil through intermediate products are mainly in basic chemicals, agricultural chemicals, transportation, mining and smelting, textiles, and heat supply [64]. 3.4.2 Profit Side: Upstream Oil and Gas Exploration Benefits, while Mid - and Down - stream Industries Show Differentiated Performance - During the 2022 Russia - Ukraine conflict, industries with significantly expanded gross profit margins in A - shares were mainly in three areas: direct beneficiaries (upstream oil and gas exploration, oil transportation); indirect beneficiaries (coal industry chain); and downstream industries with rigid demand and smooth cost transfer (some fine chemicals). On the contrary, some mid - and down - stream industries with high sensitivity to crude oil prices experienced gross profit margin contraction due to difficult cost transfer [72][73][74].

Core Viewpoint - Jiutai Bonda Energy (02798) reported a significant decline in revenue and a net loss for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, primarily due to falling average market prices for coal products [1] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the year was approximately 1.206 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year decrease of about 29.3% [1] - Jiutai Bonda Energy recorded a net loss of 198 million RMB, a shift from profit to loss compared to the previous year [1] - The basic loss per share was reported at 12.36 cents [1] Market Conditions - The decrease in total revenue is attributed mainly to the decline in average market prices for coal products [1]