策 略 研 究 华福证券 沪指站上 3500 点 投资要点： 本周（7/7-7/11）沪指向上突破 3500 点，全 A 收涨 1.71%。从指数情 况看，微盘股、中证 1000、创业板指领涨，沪深 300、中证红利、上证 50 涨幅靠后。从风格情况看，科技、医药医疗领涨，周期、消费涨幅靠后。 本周 31 个申万行业涨多跌少，房地产、钢铁、非银金融领涨，汽车、银行、 煤炭领跌。 策 略 定 期 报 告 市场观察：股债收益差下降，行业轮动强度上升。（1）市场估值：股 债收益差下降至 1.2%，小于+1 标准差。估值分化系数有所上升。（2）市 场情绪：市场情绪回升，行业轮动强度上升。市场小盘风格占优，微盘股 指数跑赢市场，主题热度主要聚集在稀土、炒股软件、稀土永磁。（3）市 场结构：市场量能环比上升，房地产、建筑材料、非银金融多头个股占比 居前，有色金属、公用事业、煤炭内部或存在α机会。（4）市场资金：本 周陆股通周内日平均成交金额较上周上升 411 亿元，本周陆股通周内日平 均成交笔数较上周上升 144 万笔。本周陆股通成交额排名前三的标的为贵 州茅台、工商银行、宁德时代，近 5 日涨幅分别为 0.3%、3.4 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - On July 14, the main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets experienced a net outflow of 26.576 billion yuan, with the ChiNext board seeing a net outflow of 12.112 billion yuan and the CSI 300 index stocks a net outflow of 6.366 billion yuan [1] - Among the 21 industries tracked, mechanical equipment, public utilities, and home appliances saw the largest gains, each rising over 1%, while real estate, media, and non-bank financial sectors fell more than 1% [1] - Four industries received net inflows from main funds, with mechanical equipment leading at 394 million yuan, followed by home appliances at 117 million yuan, and coal and petrochemical sectors each exceeding 37 million yuan [1] Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - Among individual stocks, 37 saw net inflows exceeding 100 million yuan, with six stocks surpassing 200 million yuan in inflows [2] - Zhongji Xuchuang, a leader in optical modules, topped the inflow list with 497 million yuan, benefiting from increased demand for ASIC servers driven by growth in ARR for AWS's Anthropic and Google's Gemini [2] - Notable stocks such as Xiangyang Bearing, Brother Technology, and Kelu Electronics also saw significant inflows, with Kelu Electronics reaching a net inflow of 314 million yuan, the highest since June 23, 2016 [2] Group 3: Notable Outflows - Over 90 stocks experienced net outflows exceeding 100 million yuan, with 21 stocks seeing outflows over 300 million yuan [3] - Leading the outflows were BYD and Northern Rare Earth, each with net outflows exceeding 1.1 billion yuan, with Northern Rare Earth's outflow reaching 1.105 billion yuan, marking a new high since November 4, 2024 [3][4] Group 4: Tail-End Market Activity - At the market close, there was a net outflow of 1.483 billion yuan, with the ChiNext board seeing an outflow of 806 million yuan [6] - Notably, the digital currency concept stock Chutianlong saw a significant reversal, with a net inflow of 204 million yuan, despite a projected loss of 35 to 40 million yuan for the upcoming half-year [7] - Other stocks with notable tail-end inflows included Tianyang Technology and Hanyu Pharmaceutical, each exceeding 40 million yuan [8]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows mixed performance with over 3100 stocks rising, while specific sectors like organic silicon and coal stocks demonstrate notable strength, contrasting with declines in real estate and certain financial sectors [1][2][3]. Sector Summaries Organic Silicon Sector - The organic silicon concept saw a significant afternoon rally, with Morning Light New Materials (晨光新材, 605399) hitting the daily limit and achieving a cumulative increase of over 33% in the last three trading days [6][9]. - Other companies in this sector, such as Morning Chemical (晨化股份) and Hongbai New Materials (宏柏新材), also experienced gains exceeding 6% [6]. - The demand for organic silicon products in China remains strong, driven by growth in electronics, new energy vehicles, and photovoltaic sectors, with expectations for continued demand increase [9][10]. Coal Sector - Coal stocks experienced a short-term surge, with Zhengzhou Coal Electricity (郑州煤电) reaching the daily limit and closing up by 5% [12][14]. - The electricity load in China hit a historical high, with a peak of 1.465 billion kilowatts, indicating a tight power supply and increased coal consumption expectations during the summer [15]. - Analysts predict that coal prices will maintain upward momentum due to high power plant coal consumption and low inventory levels [15][16]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.27%, while the Shenzhen Component and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.11% and 0.45%, respectively, indicating a mixed market sentiment [3].

【导读】煤炭板块率先掀"反内卷"行情，中国稀土上半年扭亏为盈 中国基金报记者 郭玟君 7月14日，香港三大股指全线上涨。恒生指数收盘涨0.26%，报24203.32点；恒生科技指数涨0.67%，报5283.50点；恒生中国企业指数 涨0.52%，报8732.74点。全日市场成交额 为 2104亿港元，较上一交易日明显回落；南向资金净买入额 为 82.43亿港元。 | 恒生指数 | 恒生国企 | 恒生科技 | | --- | --- | --- | | 24203.32 8732.74 | | 5283.50 | | +63.75 +0.26% +45.18 +0.52% +35.02 +0.67% | | | 恒生指数 成 份 股 中53只上涨，27只下跌。 涨幅方面， 中国神华上涨5.16%，翰森制药上涨3.49%，快手上涨3.33%；跌幅方面，海底 捞下跌3.68%，百度集团下跌2.72%。 | 序号 | 名称 | 代码 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 成交额 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 中国神华 ...

证券代码：600397 股票简称：安源煤业 编号：2025-054 安源煤业集团股份有限公司 2025 年上半年经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者 重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 根据《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第3号——行业信息披露》附件《第 二号——煤炭》要求，安源煤业集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）特此披露2025 年上半年经营数据。 特此公告。 安源煤业集团股份有限公司董事会 2025 年 7 月 15 日 1 | 指标名称 | 计量单位 | 2025 年 | 1-6 | 月 | 2024 | 年 1-6 | 月 | 增减比例（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 一、原煤产量 | 万吨 | | | 66.33 | | 85.53 | | -22.45 | | 二、商品煤销量 | 万吨 | | | 48.51 | | 67.12 | | -27.73 | | 三、商品煤销售收入 | 万元 | | 30,863.51 | | | ...

永泰能源（600157）公告，预计2025年半年度实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为1.2亿元~1.5亿元， 与上年同期相比下降89.91%~87.39%。归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润为9000万元 ~1.2亿元，与上年同期相比下降91.91%~89.21%。预计2025年上半年经营性净现金流27亿元以上。 ...

Group 1 - Aerospace Science and Technology expects a net profit of 68 million to 95 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a growth of 1628.83% to 2315.27% compared to the same period last year [1] - Huaxia Airlines anticipates a net profit of 220 million to 290 million yuan for the first half of 2025, an increase of 741.26% to 1008.93% year-on-year [1] - Shida Group forecasts a net loss of 44 million to 65 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a shift from profit to loss [1] Group 2 - Jiaao Environmental Protection expects a net loss of 70 million to 90 million yuan for the first half of 2025 [3] - Haima Automobile predicts a net loss of 60 million to 90 million yuan for the first half of 2025, compared to a loss of 152 million yuan in the same period last year [3] - Huaibei Mining anticipates a net profit of approximately 1.027 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a decrease of about 65% year-on-year [3] Group 3 - Quanfu Automobile expects a net loss of 155 million to 185 million yuan for the first half of 2025 [5] - Gaode Infrared signed a procurement agreement worth 879 million yuan, which is expected to positively impact its operating performance for the year [5] - Zhongchen Co. won a project from Southern Power Grid worth 379 million yuan, representing 12.26% of its audited revenue for 2024 [5] Group 4 - Daheng Technology anticipates a net loss of 406,000 yuan for the first half of 2025, compared to a loss of 988,250 yuan in the same period last year [6] - Dazhongnan expects a net profit of 6.5 million to 8 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a recovery from a loss of 15.325 million yuan last year [6] - Xianfeng Holdings projects a net profit of 34 million to 42 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 524.58% to 671.53% [7] Group 5 - Shuangxiang Co. expects a net profit of 115 million to 150 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a growth of 128.1% to 197.53% year-on-year [8] - ST Xintong anticipates a net loss of 67 million to 97 million yuan for the first half of 2025 [9] - Jishi Media forecasts a net loss of 187 million to 233 million yuan for the first half of 2025 [10] Group 6 - Suli Co. expects a net profit of 72 million to 86 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1008.39% to 1223.91% [11] - Wanli Co. anticipates a net loss of 19 million yuan for the first half of 2025, compared to a loss of 12.9238 million yuan last year [12] - Langzi Co. projects a net profit of 22 million to 26 million yuan for the first half of 2025, an increase of 31.74% to 55.69% year-on-year [14] Group 7 - Changjiang Securities expects a net profit of 1.652 billion to 1.81 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a growth of 110% to 130% [15] - Huahong Technology anticipates a net profit of 70 million to 85 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3047.48% to 3721.94% [16] - Chenhua Co. plans to invest 30 million yuan in financial products with an expected annual yield of 3.20% [16] Group 8 - Zijing Mining expects a net profit of approximately 23.2 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a growth of about 54% year-on-year [28] - Limin Co. anticipates a net profit of 26 million to 28 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 719.25% to 782.27% [29] - Huazhong Securities expects a net profit of 1.035 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a growth of 44.94% year-on-year [30]

发布时间：2025-07-14 大盘指数 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 12000 2000 3000 4000 上证指数 深证成指 1000 2000 3000 5000 6000 7000 8000 中小100 创业板指 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:黄子崟 SAC 登记编号:S1340523090002 Email:huangziyin@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《关键节点将近，A 股或震荡消化涨幅》 - 2025.07.07 策略观点 红利研究（1）：为什么是银行？终点又在何处 ⚫ 投资要点 1.为什么红利股能持续上涨？ 一个反直觉的结论，投资回报率走低的低利率环境有利于红利估 值上移。红利股策略也可以视为一个类债策略，于是我们可以把红利 股股息的一部分视为债券的利息，另一部分是持有股票这一高风险高 波动资产相对持有债券所要求的补偿。即可将红利股的股息率写作： 红利股股息率=无风险利率+本金风险补偿+股债差异补偿 社会整体的投资回报率走低后出现流动性陷阱，红利股的高股息 对于深陷债权类资产荒的资金而言是一个不可多得的回报来源，信用 利差的极致收窄使得 ...

证券代码：600403 证券简称：大有能源 编号：临 2025-034 号 特此公告。 河南大有能源股份有限公司董事会 二〇二五年七月十五日 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 根据《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 3 号—行业信息 披露》（第二号—煤炭）要求，河南大有能源股份有限公司（以下简 称"公司"）特披露 2025 年半年度主要经营数据如下： | 项 目 | 2025 年 1-6 月 | 2024 年 1-6 月 | 变动比例（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 商品煤产量（万吨） | 521.04 | 472.93 | 10.17 | | 商品煤销量（万吨） | 508.05 | 463.29 | 9.66 | | 煤炭销售收入（万元） | 174,336.21 | 227,045.76 | -23.22 | | 煤炭销售成本（万元） | 188,653.94 | 180,897.19 | 4.29 | | 煤炭销售毛利（万元） | -14,317.73 | 46 ...

二、主要原材料的采购量、消耗量及价格变动情况 山西焦化股份有限公司 2025年第二季度主要经营数据公告 重要提示：本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、 误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别 及连带责任。 根据《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第3号——行业信息披露第 十三号—化工》有关规定和披露要求，公司2025年第二季度主要经营数据如 下： | 主要产品 | 经营指标 | 单位 | 2025 年第二季度 | 2025年第一季度 | 变动比率（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦炭 | 产量 | 吨 | 735,647.30 | 731,962.69 | 0.50 | | | 销量 | 吨 | 761,790.27 | 727,501.76 | 4.71 | | | 销售收入 （不含税） | 元 | 981,617,628.62 | 1,055,586,825.97 | -7.01 | | | 平均售价 （不含税） | 元/吨 | 1,288.57 | 1,450.97 | -11.19 | | 沥青 | ...