证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 10 月 09 日 投资要点 分析师：孟之绪 执业编号：S0300524080001 电话： 邮箱：mengzhixu@ykzq.com 投资策略研究 粤开市场日报-20251009 今日关注 今日主要指数涨跌幅：沪指涨跌幅为 1.32%，深证成指涨跌幅为 1.47%， 创业板指涨跌幅为 0.73%。 申万一级行业表现：有色金属、钢铁、煤炭在行业涨跌幅榜居前；汽车、 食品饮料、商贸零售在行业涨跌幅榜居后。 | 图表 1： | | --- | | 今日主要指数涨跌幅（%）及概念板块表现 3 | 概念板块表现：总体来看，稀土、稀有金属、钴矿概念表现相对较好； 影视、免税店、光刻胶概念表现相对较差。 风险提示 股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 请务必阅读最后特别声明与免责条款 www.ykzq.com 1 / 5 | 一、市场回顾 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 二、风险提示 | 3 | 策略点评 一、市场回顾 图表1：今日主要指数涨跌幅（%）及概念板块表现 二、风险提示 股市有风险，投资需谨慎 请务必阅读最后特别声明与免责条款 www.ykzq.com 3 / 5 资 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced narrow fluctuations, while the ChiNext Index showed stronger performance, with Ningde Times reaching a new high [1] - Game stocks performed strongly, with Xinghui Entertainment and Perfect World hitting the daily limit [1] - Pork stocks collectively surged, with Delisi and Aonong Biological reaching the daily limit [1] - The intelligent driving concept was active, with Zhejiang Shibao and Luchang Technology hitting the daily limit [1] - In contrast, the satellite internet concept declined, with Sanwei Communication dropping over 5% [1] - Overall, nearly 3,400 stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets declined, with a total transaction volume of 2.3 trillion [1] Hot Topics Autonomous Driving - The autonomous driving concept saw significant gains, with multiple stocks such as Suoling Co., Shikong Technology, and Zhejiang Shibao hitting the daily limit [3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a work plan for the automotive industry from 2025 to 2026, which includes promoting the approval of L3-level vehicle production [3] - The plan aims to enhance road traffic safety and improve relevant laws and regulations [3] Film and Entertainment - The film and entertainment sector continued to strengthen, with China Film and Xinghui Entertainment hitting the daily limit, and companies like Happiness Blue Sea and Mango Super Media also rising [7] - The National Day holiday in 2025 is expected to generate significant box office revenue, with many industry insiders expressing optimism about the ticket sales for that period [7] Prepared Dishes - The prepared dishes concept saw strong performance, with Delisi and Aonong Biological reaching the daily limit [9] - Industry analyst Zhu Danpeng suggested that the government should expedite the establishment of national standards for prepared dishes and implement a licensing system for companies [9] - The introduction of national standards is expected to enhance food safety and may increase costs by 15% to 30% due to new requirements [10]

Core Viewpoint - Jishi Media (601929.SH) experienced a significant stock price drop of 6.82%, marking its ninth appearance on the trading leaderboard this year, amidst concerns over its financial performance despite recent speculative trading activities [1][3][4]. Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, Jishi Media reported a net loss of 232 million yuan, with a cash flow deficit and an increase in the debt-to-asset ratio to 59.25% [8][11]. - The company's revenue for the first half was 997 million yuan, reflecting an 8.7% year-on-year increase, but the net profit attributable to shareholders declined by 18.82% [8][11]. - The company has faced continuous losses for three and a half years, with a cumulative net profit decline over five and a half years when excluding non-recurring items [9][11]. Market Activity - The stock has seen significant volatility due to speculative trading, with notable participation from well-known investors and funds, including a net sell-off of 46.48 million yuan by the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect [4][6]. - New shareholders, including Yu Hejia and Xia Zhongyang, have emerged, with Yu holding 22 million shares (0.63% of circulating shares) and Xia holding 15.6 million shares (0.45%) [4][5]. Strategic Moves - To mitigate the risk of delisting, Jishi Media has implemented a market value maintenance plan, which includes stock buybacks, major shareholder increases, and asset injections [11][12]. - The company has engaged in asset swaps, including a deal involving its 100% stake in Sanya Yucheng and IPTV-related assets, with performance commitments for the next three years [11][12]. Business Challenges - Jishi Media's subsidiaries, particularly Northeast Asia Big Data, reported a revenue of 36 million yuan but incurred a loss of 246 million yuan, exceeding the company's overall loss for the period [14]. - The company has acknowledged weaknesses in its user service system, market demand insight, and innovation capabilities, which have contributed to insufficient revenue growth [14].

Market Performance - The three major A-share indices collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.85%, reaching a 10-year high [1] - The North Star 50 surged by 6.79%, marking a historical peak, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.73% [1] - The total trading volume across the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 28,091 billion yuan, an increase of 5,363 billion yuan from the previous day, making it the third highest in history [1] Sector Performance - Over 4,000 stocks in the market experienced gains, with strong leadership from sectors such as stock trading software, liquid cooling, rare earths, and CPO concepts [1] - The military industry and stablecoin concepts gained momentum in the afternoon session, while cyclical stocks like coal and non-ferrous metals generally underperformed the indices [1] ETF Performance - The rare earth sector saw significant gains, with ETFs such as E Fund and FT Fund rare earth ETFs rising by 6.31% and 6.22%, respectively [4] - The CPO sector experienced a breakout, with various AI-related ETFs on the ChiNext rising between 5.47% and 5.87% [4] - The film sector also saw a broad increase, with ETFs like Guotai Fund and Yinhua Fund film ETFs rising by 5.51% and 5.8% [4] - Conversely, the long-term treasury bonds faced declines, with 30-year treasury ETFs dropping by 1.2% [4]

Market Performance - A-shares continued to rise significantly on August 18, with major indices strengthening, as the Shanghai Composite Index reached 3731.69 points, up nearly 1%, marking the highest level since August 21, 2015, and a nearly ten-year high [1][1][1] - The ChiNext Index surged over 3%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.82% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.84% [1][1][1] Sector Performance - Sectors such as cultural media, consumer electronics, liquid cooling, and gaming saw the largest gains [1][1][1] - Concepts including liquid cooling, CPO, Huawei HiSilicon, AI corpus, film and television, consumer electronics, Kirin batteries, and rare earth permanent magnets performed strongly [1][1][1] Market Capitalization - The total market capitalization of A-shares surpassed 100 trillion yuan for the first time in history, reaching a new record high [1][1][1] - As of 10:34 AM, nearly 4200 stocks rose while 1000 stocks declined, with a net outflow of approximately 6 billion yuan from major funds [1][1][1] Company Highlights - Agricultural Bank of China ranked first in A-share market capitalization at 2.19 trillion yuan, followed by Industrial and Commercial Bank of China at 2.02 trillion yuan [1][1][1] - Other companies with market capitalizations exceeding 1 trillion yuan include Kweichow Moutai, China Petroleum, Bank of China, and CATL [1][1][1]

Group 1 - The innovative drug concept remains active, with the market showing strong performance, as the Shanghai Composite Index surpassed 3731.69 points, a nearly 10-year high [1][3] - The innovative drug market in China is estimated to reach approximately 162 billion yuan in 2024, with a projected market size exceeding 1 trillion yuan by 2035 [3][4] - Multiple innovative drug ETFs have attracted significant capital inflow, with a total net inflow of 7.551 billion yuan in August alone [4] Group 2 - Over 80 innovative drug concept stocks have seen an average price increase of 4.42% since August, with notable performers like Nanmo Biology and Shunlian Bio rising over 40% [7] - Institutions have shown strong interest in several innovative drug stocks, with 90 institutions conducting research on Borui Pharmaceutical, which has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Hanyu Pharmaceutical [7][10] - More than half of the innovative drug concept stocks have received net buying in financing since August, with major inflows seen in companies like WuXi AppTec and Borui Pharmaceutical [8]

Market Performance - The ChiNext Index increased by over 3%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.77% [1] - Approximately 4,100 stocks in the market experienced gains, while 1,000 stocks saw declines [1] - The net outflow of main capital was about 7 billion yuan [1] Index Data - Shanghai Composite Index: 3,726.99, up by 30.22 points (+0.82%) [2] - ChiNext Index: 2,613.24, up by 79.03 points (+3.12%) [2] - Shenzhen Component Index: 11,848.84, up by 214.18 points (+1.84%) [2] - Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index: 1,132.84, up by 31.55 points (+2.86%) [2] - CSI 300 Index: 4,248.57, up by 46.21 points (+1.10%) [2] - SSE 50 Index: 2,846.15, up by 13.27 points (+0.47%) [2] Sector Highlights - Strong performance observed in sectors such as liquid cooling, CPO, Huawei HiSilicon, AI corpus, film and television, consumer electronics, Kirin batteries, and rare earth permanent magnets [1]

Market Performance - A-shares major indices rose, with the Shenzhen Component Index increasing over 1%, the ChiNext Index rising over 1%, and the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.44% [1] - Concepts such as liquid cooling, AI corpus, Huawei HiSilicon, shipbuilding, and film and television showed strong performance, while precious metals, coal, and multi-financial concepts weakened [1] - Nearly 4,000 stocks in the market rose, while 1,100 stocks declined [1] Stock Highlights - ST Xiangxue (300147) saw a price increase of 16.47% with a total market value of 5.892 billion [2] - Hanyu Pharmaceutical (300199) increased by 12.05%, with a market cap of 25.8 billion and a year-to-date increase of 126.53% [2] - Wanbangde (002082) rose by 10.01%, with a market value of 4.906 billion and a year-to-date increase of 24.73% [2] - Tian Shili (600535) increased by 7.73%, with a market cap of 26 billion and a year-to-date increase of 22.17% [2] - Shanghai Leifu (688091) rose by 6.94%, with a market value of 16.9 billion and a year-to-date increase of 104.93% [2] - Olin Bio (688319) increased by 5.63%, with a market cap of 10.3 billion and a year-to-date increase of 139.06% [2] - Yangguang Nuohuo (688621) rose by 5.22%, with a market value of 9.033 billion and a year-to-date increase of 114.56% [2] - Other notable stocks include Nuo Si Lan De (430047) up by 4.62%, Hai Te Bio (300683) up by 4.08%, and Nanxin Pharmaceutical (688189) up by 4.08% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Jishi Media has experienced significant increases, with a 5-day consecutive limit-up from August 7 to August 13, leading to concerns about a potential decline as the price has deviated from the company's fundamentals [2][5][12]. Company Performance - Jishi Media's stock price rose by 86.53% from August 1 to August 13, 2023, with a cumulative turnover rate of 114.97% from August 4 to August 13 [5]. - The company reported a net loss of 465 million yuan for 2024, with a projected loss of 187 million to 233 million yuan for the first half of 2025, indicating no significant improvement in performance [12]. - The company anticipates a decline in revenue from public customer business due to intensified industry competition and changing user viewing habits [12][13]. Business Operations - Jishi Media clarified that it does not engage in "State-owned Cloud" related businesses and is not involved in the investment of currently released films [3][9]. - The company's main business includes smart broadcasting services for public clients, data services for government and enterprise clients, and digital innovation services for future vertical fields [9]. - The broadcasting industry faces challenges from increased competition and user attrition due to the rise of IPTV, internet television, and mobile video [9].

Core Viewpoint - Jishi Media (601929) has experienced a significant stock price increase, with a cumulative rise of 86.53% since August 1, raising concerns about irrational speculation and potential trading risks [1][2] Group 1: Stock Performance - Jishi Media's stock has hit the daily limit for five consecutive trading days from August 7 to August 13 [1] - The stock's turnover rate reached 114.97% from August 4 to August 13 [1] - The company issued a risk warning, stating that the stock price has significantly deviated from its fundamentals, indicating a high risk of a rapid decline [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2024, Jishi Media expects a net loss attributable to shareholders of -465 million yuan, with a net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses projected at -518 million yuan [1] - The company anticipates a net loss of between -187 million yuan and -233 million yuan for the first half of 2025, indicating no significant improvement in operational performance compared to the previous year [1][2] Group 3: Business Challenges - The primary reasons for the expected losses include a decline in public customer business revenue due to intensified industry competition, rapid development of the internet and new media, and changes in user viewing habits, leading to a decrease in cable TV subscriber renewal rates [2] - Jishi Media clarified that it does not engage in "state-owned cloud" related businesses and has a minimal investment in the film "731," which is not expected to significantly impact its financial performance [2]