Summary of COSCO SHIPPING Specialized Carriers Conference Call Company Overview - COSCO SHIPPING Specialized Carriers plans to integrate nearly 50 new vessels over three years, increasing total deadweight tonnage to approximately 7.6 million, with targets of over 9 million by the end of 2025 and over 10 million by 2026, significantly enhancing capacity and market competitiveness [2][3] Core Insights and Arguments - **Diverse Fleet Composition**: The company utilizes a diverse fleet including multipurpose heavy-lift vessels, pulp carriers, semi-submersible vessels, and roll-on/roll-off ships, along with innovative models like port-to-port loading and unloading to improve service quality and operational efficiency [2][4] - **Strategic Alliances**: COSCO has established strategic alliances with over 40 leading clients, achieving a direct customer ratio of nearly 80%, which positions the company to capitalize on opportunities in advanced manufacturing and new energy vehicle exports [2][6] - **Full-Chain Logistics Development**: The company aims to transition from a supply chain operator to a comprehensive solution provider, offering ground services to major clients like SANY Heavy Industry and launching innovative products such as the Zijiang Express [7][24] - **Revenue Growth**: The AC segment revenue has increased nearly 200% year-on-year, contributing approximately 10% to total revenue [7] Financial Performance - **2025 H1 Performance**: The company expects to exceed 10 billion yuan in revenue for the first half of 2025, with rapid growth in net profit attributable to shareholders and net profit excluding non-recurring items, driven by capacity expansion and innovative business models [3][10] - **Vessel Rental Rates**: In H1 2025, rental rates for various vessel types are projected as follows: multipurpose vessels at $16,000/day, heavy-lift vessels at $21,000/day, pulp carriers at $23,000/day, asphalt carriers at $10,000/day, and specialized car carriers at $50,000/day, with pulp carrier rates declining by approximately 10% year-on-year [8][9] Market Dynamics - **Container Market Trends**: The container market in Q1 2025 experienced a decline of about 10% due to the end of a shipping rush related to Brazilian tariffs, while other vessel types like heavy-lift and semi-submersible vessels saw increases [9][12] - **Wind Power Sector Impact**: The wind power sector has positively influenced the company's performance, with heavy-lift vessels being crucial for transporting wind power equipment, contributing significantly to overall growth [14][15] Future Outlook - **Long-Term Strategy**: COSCO SHIPPING Specialized Carriers focuses on a counter-cyclical development strategy, emphasizing partnerships with advanced manufacturing sectors and aiming for steady market share and profit growth [16][21] - **Capital Expenditure Plans**: Future capital expenditures will focus on team structure optimization and new project advancements, while maintaining a dividend policy of at least 30% [20][19] - **Market Positioning**: The company anticipates that high-quality resources will dominate the market in the long term, with a focus on high-value, flexible small vessels to meet growing demand [21][22] Additional Insights - **Changes in Cargo Structure**: There has been a notable shift in cargo structure, with traditional categories like steel declining and high-end manufacturing categories such as engineering machinery and new energy vehicles rising [23] - **International Market Strategies**: COSCO aims to become a comprehensive solution provider for international projects, enhancing core capabilities through multimodal transport and digital integration [24][25] - **Optimistic Growth Prospects**: The company is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for Chinese equipment overseas, particularly in regions like South America and the Belt and Road Initiative [25][26]

Group 1: Policy Implementation and Infrastructure Development - The "Two Heavy" (national strategic implementation and key area security capability construction) and "Two New" (large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods replacement) policies are crucial for expanding domestic demand and promoting high-quality development [1] - The Pinglu Canal project in Guangxi, a major national construction project, is expected to be operational by the end of 2026, significantly reducing logistics costs for the southwestern region [2] - Shanghai is focusing on key industries such as large aircraft and humanoid robots, organizing projects to accelerate progress in line with the "Two Heavy" policy [3] Group 2: Consumer Demand and Supply Optimization - The "Two New" policy aims to optimize supply, boost consumption, and enhance consumer confidence, with initiatives like the old-for-new subsidy for consumer electronics [4] - In 2024, Guangxi plans to allocate approximately 5.1 billion yuan for consumer goods replacement, which is expected to directly stimulate sales of around 32.5 billion yuan [4] - The implementation of the "Two New" policy has led to significant improvements in production efficiency and order growth in companies like Nannan Aluminum [6] Group 3: Financial Support and New Business Models - Financial institutions in Guangxi are being guided to support projects focused on energy saving, carbon reduction, and industrial digital transformation [7] - Shanghai has introduced a special action plan to promote large-scale equipment updates in the industrial sector, with over 500 projects expected to receive support in 2024 [7] - The research team suggests exploring new business models and industries that align with evolving consumer demands to further stimulate domestic demand [8]

每经记者｜张韵 每经编辑｜杨夏 集运北美航线运价在连续下跌四周后，出现小幅反弹。7月11日，上海港出口至美西基本港市场运价为 2194美元/FEU（40英尺标准箱，即大柜），较上期上涨5.0%。而对比6月6日的峰值，美西航线海运费 仍跌去六成。 上海航运交易所表示，"关税战"近期再次成为市场关注的焦点，美国总统特朗普延长所谓"对等关税"的 暂缓期，将实施时间推迟至8月1日。此外，美国对多个国家设定了新的关税税率，并宣布将对铜征收高 达50%的行业关税。关税政策的持续反复，将继续对集运市场造成较大影响。 美线旺季运价整体反常下跌 市场趋势仍与中美贸易情况紧密相关。7月14日，海关总署副署长王令浚在新闻发布会上答记者问时表 示，上半年，我国对美国进出口总值2.08万亿元，同比下降9.3%。受所谓"对等关税"影响，中美贸易由 第一季度同比增长转为第二季度同比下降，降幅达到了20.8%。 随着日内瓦、伦敦经贸会谈取得积极进展，6月份进出口值有所回升，同比降幅也明显收窄。王令浚 称，据了解，目前中美双方团队正在加紧落实伦敦框架有关成果。 从美国港口官方发布的数据来看，洛杉矶港在6月份创纪录的进口量较5月环比增长了32% ...

Core Viewpoint - Hainan Free Trade Port offers a comprehensive tax incentive system, including zero tariffs, low tax rates, and simplified tax regulations, effective from 2025, aimed at attracting businesses and fostering economic growth [1]. Group 1: Corporate Income Tax - Hainan's corporate income tax policy features "universal applicability + special care," with core policies extended until the end of 2027, providing long-term tax stability for businesses [3]. - A unified corporate income tax rate of 15% will apply to all registered companies in Hainan, significantly lower than the mainland's 25% standard rate, with additional exemptions for certain industries [4]. - Companies in encouraged industries can enjoy further tax benefits if their main business revenue exceeds 60% of total income, including exemptions on overseas direct investment income [4]. Group 2: Import Taxation - The zero-tariff list has expanded to 453 items, allowing companies to import raw materials without tariffs, VAT, or consumption tax, significantly reducing production costs [7]. - Companies producing goods with over 30% added value from imported materials can also benefit from tariff exemptions when selling to the mainland [9]. - The zero-tariff policy for transportation and tourism-related imports has been optimized, continuing to support the industry [10]. Group 3: Personal Income Tax - Hainan's personal income tax system offers dual-track incentives for high-end talent and ordinary residents, making it one of the most competitive in the country [12]. - High-end talent earning over 300,000 yuan annually can have their effective tax burden capped at 15%, significantly reducing their tax liabilities compared to the mainland [13]. - Ordinary residents will be taxed at a lower progressive rate of 3%, 10%, and 15%, compared to the mainland's higher rates [14]. Group 4: Specific Industry Incentives - Hainan has introduced a combination of "zero tariffs + special subsidies + facilitation measures" for key industries such as tourism, high-tech, and biomedicine [15]. - The medical tourism pilot zone allows for zero tariffs on imported drugs and medical devices, significantly reducing costs for patients [16]. Group 5: VAT Transition and Sales Tax Reform - 2025 marks a critical year for tax reform in Hainan, with transitional VAT policies and plans for a simplified sales tax system post-closure [17]. - The sales tax will combine various taxes, potentially lowering rates, requiring businesses to adapt their operational models accordingly [20]. Group 6: Policy Applicability and Compliance - To benefit from Hainan's tax incentives, companies must meet "substantive operation" requirements, avoiding the status of "shell companies" [22]. - Companies must apply for zero-tariff qualifications through the "Hainan International Trade Single Window," with tax benefits subject to verification by tax authorities [23]. Group 7: Case Studies - A cross-border e-commerce company utilized the zero-tariff policy on imported raw materials, achieving a significant reduction in overall tax burden [24]. - A biopharmaceutical company registered in Hainan benefited from reduced corporate income tax and R&D expense deductions, leading to substantial tax savings [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping market shows significant price fluctuations in futures contracts, with some contracts rising sharply. The spot freight rate peak appears later than expected, and the 08 contract's basis is gradually being repaired. Attention should be paid to tariff negotiations and market booking conditions [2][4]. - The dry - bulk shipping market has seen an overall increase in freight rates. The large - ship market is expected to stop falling and recover, while the medium - ship market is expected to have a slightly stronger and volatile freight rate [16][22]. - In the oil tanker transportation market, the BDTI has declined recently. Considering the refinery maintenance period in the second quarter and weak demand, the impact of market sentiment changes on freight rates needs to be monitored [26]. Summary by Directory Container Shipping Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - Futures contracts: On July 15, EC2510 had a significant increase of 14.92%, with a large increase in trading volume. The 08 contract is approaching delivery, and the basis is gradually being repaired [2]. - Spot freight rates: The latest SCFIS European line reported 2421.94 points, a week - on - week increase of 7.3%. MSK's WK31 Shanghai - Rotterdam opening price remained flat compared to the previous period [2][4]. - Tariffs: Trump proposed to impose 100% secondary tariffs on Russia if the Russia - Ukraine conflict is not resolved within 50 days, and may impose secondary sanctions on countries buying Russian oil. The US is also considering increasing tariffs on other countries, which may affect the shipping market [4][5]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short EC2510 at high prices [8]. - Arbitrage: Conduct rolling operations on the 10 - 12 reverse spread [8]. Industry News - Multiple countries are involved in tariff negotiations and counter - measures, and the cease - fire negotiation in the Gaza Strip is ongoing, which may impact the shipping market [9][11]. Dry - bulk Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - Freight rate index: The Baltic Dry Index rose to a four - week high, with all ship - type freight rates increasing. The Capesize ship freight rate index rose by 12.5%, and the Panamax ship freight rate index reached its highest level since June 18 last year [16]. - Spot freight rates: On July 14, the freight rate of the Brazil - Qingdao iron ore route for Capesize ships increased by 2.08% week - on - week. The weekly freight rates of some coal and grain routes also showed varying degrees of increase [17]. - Shipping data: From July 7 - 13, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume decreased slightly, while the shipping volume from Australia and Brazil increased. The grain shipping volume in July 2025 was lower than that of the same period last year [19]. - Import and export data: In June 2025, China's steel exports decreased month - on - month, while imports also decreased. Iron ore imports increased month - on - month, and coal imports decreased. Soybean imports decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [20]. Industry News - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota validity period from three years to one year starting in 2026. The iron ore inventory at major ports in Australia and Brazil has increased [23]. Oil Tanker Transportation Market Analysis and Outlook - Freight rates: On July 14, the BDTI reported 927, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22%, and the BCTI reported 548, a week - on - week increase of 0.37%. Due to the refinery maintenance period in the second quarter, demand is relatively weak [26]. Industry News - Trump's new tariffs may exempt energy products. An explosion occurred at a production facility in an oil field in Canada, and there have been multiple engine shutdown incidents on Indian flights [27][28]. Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those related to container shipping, dry - bulk shipping, and oil tanker transportation freight rates and indices, to visually display market trends [31][32][41]

Core Viewpoint - Hainan Free Trade Port is accelerating the gathering of global shipping resources, enhancing its role as a key shipping hub connecting the Pacific and Indian Oceans [1][3]. Group 1: Infrastructure and Shipping Routes - Hainan is forming a "Four Ports and Five Harbors" structure, with Yangpu Port as the international hub and Haikou Port as a major Chinese port, supported by regional ports like Bansuo, Sanya, and Qinglan [3]. - The region operates 72 stable container shipping routes, achieving a balance of domestic and foreign trade, and covering major ports in ASEAN countries with six new foreign trade routes opened this year, including North America and the India-Pakistan route [3][4]. - The new Yangpu to Abu Dhabi route, opening in April 2024, significantly benefits Hainan Yisheng Petrochemical Co., reducing shipping time from over 20 days to half and cutting shipping costs by over 10% [4]. Group 2: Port Development and Policies - Yangpu Port is set to launch four 200,000-ton berths, accommodating the world's largest container ships, enhancing its modern port cluster [4]. - The "China Yangpu Port" shipping registration policies, including the removal of foreign equity restrictions and streamlined registration processes, have attracted 64 vessels with a total capacity of 6.3526 million tons [4][5]. - Shipping companies are seizing opportunities in Hainan, with plans to establish regional headquarters and introduce new vessels to benefit from the free trade port policies [5]. Group 3: International Cooperation and Market Expansion - Hainan is strengthening partnerships with top global ports, such as the sister port relationship with Abu Dhabi, enhancing cooperation in construction, trade, and green energy [7]. - The collaboration with Singapore Port aims to create a new logistics channel covering South China and Southeast Asia, addressing efficiency bottlenecks in logistics [7]. - The expected breakthroughs in the shipping industry's institutional openness post-closure operation of Hainan Free Trade Port may lead to increased maritime commercial disputes, necessitating the development of an internationally competitive shipping service ecosystem [7].

从行业角度来看，工业领域在上半年筹集了最多的资金，达到14亿美元，占筹集资金总额的近43%。其 中，沙特的廉价航空公司Flynas以11亿美元的筹集金额领跑，阿曼的航运公司Asyad Shipping Company 紧随其后。房地产行业和医疗保健行业也表现不俗，分别筹集了5.76亿美元和5.05亿美元。 然而，并非所有新股都能在上市后获得正回报。截至上半年末，24只新股中只有10只相对于发行价实现 了正收益。其中，Asyad Shipping Company自3月12日上市以来，区间涨幅高达835%。相比之下，上半 年最大的IPO——Flynas的股价则表现平平，与发行价相比仅下跌了0.2%。 海湾合作委员会（GCC）六国在2025年上半年的IPO市场表现揭晓，科威特金融中心（Markaz）最新发 布的报告揭示了这一地区资本市场的活跃程度。据统计，上半年共有24次IPO成功进行，合计筹集资金 34亿美元，尽管与去年同期的35亿美元相比略有下滑。 在这六国中，沙特阿拉伯无疑是最耀眼的存在。该国通过22次IPO筹集了近28亿美元，占据了整个GCC 地区IPO筹集资金总额的85%。这一成绩不仅彰显了沙特资本市场的 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The oil market rating for the current week has been adjusted from relatively strong to neutral and volatile [5] Core Views - **Crude Oil**: In Q2, global oil inventories increased by 2.7%, accelerating marginally from 2% in Q1. In the first week of Q3, overall inventories decreased by 0.3% due to crude oil destocking and refined oil stockpiling. The upward drive of strong real - world factors on oil prices may be weakening, and the further upside for Brent above $70 per barrel is limited [5] - **Fuel Oil**: Last week, global fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.7% week - on - week and remained at a low level. The spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils in Singapore widened [5] - **Asphalt**: In June, refinery production exceeded the plan, breaking the de - stocking pattern. The increase in asphalt supply is still uncertain, and demand recovery is expected to be delayed [5] - **Natural Gas**: High temperatures have boosted market demand. In the US, the upside is limited before further strengthening of power demand. In Europe, the market is expected to remain volatile [8] - **LPG**: Middle East production pressure persists, and the overseas price continues to be weak. The domestic market is currently experiencing weak supply and demand, with the futures market showing weak volatility [8] - **Container Shipping Index (European Route)**: The spot price was stronger than expected last week. The short - term futures market will fluctuate with the spot price. In the medium term, freight rates are likely to decline seasonally [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Energy & Shipping Price Trends - **Energy Commodities**: Last week, crude - related products continued to rise, with Brent up 3.1%. By - products LPG and fuel oil were weak. The natural gas market showed mixed performance, with European gas up 5.2% and US gas down 0.89%. The steam coal market continued to rebound [4] - **Shipping**: European route quotes mostly remained stable in late July. US route freight rates bottomed out and stabilized, with SCFI West & East US routes up 5% and 1.2% week - on - week respectively [4] Crude Oil & Oil Products Chain Key Volume and Price Data - **Price Trends**: The crude oil monthly spread declined from a high. The premium of domestic futures was strong. The spot premium of crude oil declined slightly from a high [10] - **Crack Spreads**: Overseas gasoline and diesel crack spreads fluctuated, and the crack spread of high - sulfur fuel oil weakened. Domestic energy - chemical product crack spreads continued to decline with the rebound of crude oil [12] - **Global Oil Consumption High - Frequency Indicators**: The 7 - day average of global commercial flights was down 1.2% year - on - year. The 4 - week average of US refined oil apparent demand was down 1.6% year - on - year [13] - **China's Oil Consumption High - Frequency Indicators**: China's ground congestion index was flat year - on - year, and highway truck traffic was up 0.8% year - on - year. The number of domestic flights was up 2% year - on - year [17] - **Refining Profits & Refinery Operations**: The comprehensive refining profits of refineries in three regions and the refining margins of Chinese refineries are presented in the report, along with refinery capacity utilization rates [19] - **China & India Procurement Shipping Schedules**: In June, China's above - scale crude oil processing volume was up 8.5% year - on - year, and imports were up 7.4% year - on - year. India's crude oil imports and refining product demand also showed certain trends [22] - **Major Oil - Producing Countries' Shipping Schedules**: The shipping schedules of major oil - producing countries such as OPEC 9 countries, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iran are presented [24] - **US Crude Oil Production**: Data on US crude oil production, including production volume, four - week average year - on - year growth rate, and rig counts, are provided [26] - **Crude Oil Inventories**: Data on on - land commercial inventories, floating storage inventories, and total inventories of crude oil are presented [28] - **Refined Oil Inventories**: Data on global refined oil inventories, including light distillates, diesel, kerosene, and fuel oil, are provided [31] - **Fund Positions**: The relative net long positions of management funds in Brent and WTI crude oil are presented [33] Asphalt Key Volume and Price Data - **High - Frequency Supply and Demand**: The shipment volume of domestic refinery asphalt increased slightly week - on - week, and the cumulative year - on - year increase decreased by 1 percentage point to 7% compared to the end of June [5] - **Inventory**: Data on domestic asphalt inventories, including refinery inventories and trader inventories, are provided [38] Natural Gas Key Volume and Price Data - **Core Spreads**: Data on key spreads such as the TTF - balance spread, JKM - TTF spread, and HH forward curve are presented [41] - **Short - Term Temperature Forecast**: Short - term temperature forecasts for regions such as Northwest Europe, the US, and China are provided [46] - **European Consumption and LNG Imports**: Data on natural gas consumption and LNG imports in Europe are presented [49] - **US Production and Global LNG Exports**: Data on US natural gas production and LNG exports from the US, Qatar, and Australia are provided [51] - **Inventory Levels and Change Rates**: Data on natural gas inventory levels and change rates in the US and Europe are presented [53] LPG Key Volume and Price Data - **Core Spreads**: Data on key spreads such as the PG - FEI spread, ether - post - carbon - four - civil - gas spread, and Far - East propane - naphtha spread are presented [55] - **Inventory Levels**: Data on propane inventories in the US, refinery inventories in China, and port storage capacity utilization rates in South and East China are provided [57] Steam Coal Key Volume and Price Data - **Trade Spreads and Profits**: Data on inland trade shipping profits, high - calorie coal premiums at Bohai Rim ports, and the import advantages of imported coal are presented [59] - **Upstream Supply**: Data on the weekly production of 442 coal mines in the Three Western Regions, Ordos coal mine operating rates, and China's imported steam coal weekly shipments are provided [62] - **Mid - Stream Transportation**: Data on the supply - demand surplus, number of ships, and inventories at four Bohai Rim ports, as well as inland port inventories, are presented [64] - **Downstream Manufacturing & Construction Industry Prosperity**: Data on sub - industry PMIs, real estate sales areas, cement and coal - to - methanol operating rates, and steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rates are provided [66] - **Downstream Daily Consumption & Inventory**: Data on the daily consumption and inventory of eight coastal provinces, seventeen inland provinces, and twenty - five provinces across the country are presented [68][69] Container Shipping (European Route) Key Volume and Price Data - **Price Trends**: The spot price was stronger than expected last week. The short - term futures market will fluctuate with the spot price, and the basis will gradually converge [71] - **Capacity Turnover**: Data on the idle capacity, sailing speed of container ships, and the scale of container ships in ports in Northwest Europe and Asia are presented [76]

Market Overview and Key Insights - The Hong Kong dividend sector continued to rise last week, outperforming the broader market, with the Hang Seng China Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Total Return Index increasing by 1.74%, compared to a 0.93% rise in the Hang Seng Index and a 0.62% rise in the Hang Seng Tech Index [1] - Foreign capital inflow expanded, with net inflow into Hong Kong stocks reaching $1.023 billion, up from $916 million the previous week, while southbound funds saw a net inflow of HKD 26.4 billion [1] Insurance Capital and Long-term Investment - Recent regulatory changes encourage insurance funds to adopt a long-term investment strategy, shifting the assessment of net asset return rates from a 3-year and annual indicator to a combination of annual, 3-year, and 5-year indicators with respective weights of 30%, 50%, and 20% [1] - Insurance capital is expected to become a significant source of incremental funds in the stock market, with a requirement for state-owned large insurance companies to invest 30% of new premiums in A-shares, potentially adding thousands of millions in long-term capital annually [2] Dividend Strategy and Valuation - The dividend yield of the Hang Seng China Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index is 5.86%, compared to 4.82% for the CSI Dividend Index, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.64 and a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 6.96 [2] - The total return index has achieved a cumulative return of 123% since early 2021, outperforming the Hang Seng Total Return Index by 118% [2] ETF Overview - The Huaan Hong Kong Stock Connect Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (513920) tracks the Hang Seng China Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index and is the first ETF in the market with the combined attributes of Hong Kong stocks, central state-owned enterprises, and dividends [3] Fund Performance - The net asset value of the Huaan Hong Kong Stock Connect Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF is 7.66 billion [4] - Key holdings include China COSCO Shipping (4.6% weight, 12.9% dividend yield), Orient Overseas International (4.4% weight, 11.3% dividend yield), and New China Life Insurance (3.9% weight, 6.4% dividend yield) [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Polysilicon [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, Stainless Steel, Tin, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Logs [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Treasury Bonds, Gold, Silver, Alumina, Nickel, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferrosilicon, Coking Coal, Coke, Palm Oil, Corn, Pulp, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Rubber, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Styrene, Fertilizer, PE, PVC, Chlor - Alkali, LPG, Container Shipping on the European Route [1] Core Views - In the short term, liquidity and market sentiment are acceptable, but there are few substantial positive factors at home and abroad. With the recent significant reduction in the discount advantage of stock index futures, it is advisable to be cautious about chasing up [1]. - The asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning of interest - rate risks suppresses the upward trend [1]. - Market uncertainties remain. Gold prices are expected to fluctuate mainly in the short term, and silver prices should be wary of the risk of a fall after a rise [1]. - The potential implementation of US copper tariffs may lead to a re - flow of copper from non - US regions, posing a risk of compensatory decline in Shanghai and London copper prices [1]. - High aluminum prices suppress downstream demand, while low inventories support aluminum prices, resulting in a weak oscillating trend [1]. - Domestic anti - involution policies boost the expectation of supply - side reform, leading to a stable recovery in alumina prices [1]. - Tariff disturbances are intensifying, and the expectation of inventory accumulation in the fundamentals continues to pressure zinc prices. Attention should be paid to macro uncertainties [1]. - With macro uncertainties remaining, nickel prices are oscillating. It is recommended to short on rallies in the short term, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1]. - For stainless steel futures, it is advisable to focus on short - term trading, sell on rallies for hedging, and seize the opportunity of positive basis trading. Pay attention to raw material changes and steel mill production schedules [1]. - The macro pricing of tin prices has increased, but the short - term fundamentals of supply and demand are weak, with limited driving forces. Attention should be paid to the subsequent meeting of the Manxiang mining area [1]. - For industrial silicon, the supply shows a pattern of decreasing in the north and increasing in the south. The demand for polysilicon has increased marginally, but there are expectations of production cuts later. The market sentiment is high [1]. - For polysilicon, there are expectations of supply - side reform in the photovoltaic market, and the market sentiment is high [1]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply side has not cut production, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and factory purchases are not active. There is capital gaming [1]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coil, the strong performance of furnace materials provides valuation support, but the fundamentals of hot - rolled coil are showing marginal weakness [1]. - For iron ore, short - term production has increased, demand is acceptable, supply and demand are relatively loose, and cost support is insufficient, so prices are under pressure [1]. - For ferrosilicon, the market sentiment has improved. In the short term, supply is stable, demand is resilient, and inventory is being depleted, providing price support. However, in the medium term, supply - demand surplus makes it difficult for prices to rise [1]. - For coking coal and coke, the supply is expected to increase, direct and terminal demand is weak, and cost support is weakening. It is advisable to focus on the opportunity of futures premium for selling hedging [1]. - For palm oil and rapeseed oil, relevant reports are neutral to bearish, and short - term oscillations are expected. It is recommended to wait and see for palm oil, and rapeseed oil is bearish due to the expected entry of Australian rapeseed [1]. - For cotton, in the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long term, macro uncertainties are still strong. The domestic cotton - spinning industry has entered the off - season, and downstream inventories are starting to accumulate, so domestic cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - For sugar, Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect Brazil's sugar - making ratio in the new crushing season and lead to higher - than - expected sugar production [1]. - For corn, there are many short - term policy disturbances. Attention should be paid to the subsequent auction volume and transaction price of imported corn and whether the aged rice auction will be implemented. The low wheat - corn price difference suppresses the upward space of corn prices [1]. - For soybean meal, the short - term inventory accumulation pressure continues to pressure the spot basis, which is expected to oscillate at a low level. The downside space of the US market is limited, and the Brazilian premium is expected to be firm. It is advisable to buy on dips [1]. - For pulp, after the macro - level positive factors, the price has risen, but the spot price has not followed up significantly, so it is not recommended to chase up [1]. - For live pigs, with the continuous recovery of the pig inventory, the slaughter weight is increasing. The futures market has a clear expectation of sufficient inventory and a large discount to the spot price. The short - term spot price is less affected by slaughter, and the futures price remains stable [1]. - For crude oil and fuel oil, the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation has led the market to return to the supply - demand logic. OPEC+ has increased production more than expected, and short - term strong consumption in the peak season in Europe and the US provides support [1]. - For natural rubber, the downstream demand is showing a weakening trend, the supply - side production release expectation is strong, and the inventory has increased slightly [1]. - For BR rubber, OPEC has increased production more than expected, the synthetic rubber fundamentals are under pressure, and some butadiene units are under maintenance with limited ship - cargo supply, providing certain support [1]. - For PTA, the supply has shrunk, but the crude oil price remains strong. The polyester downstream load remains at 90% despite the expectation of load reduction, and the spot market is becoming more abundant. Due to profit compression, the polyester replenishment willingness is low [1]. - For ethylene glycol, the coal price has risen slightly, the future arrival volume is large, but the overseas supply has shrunk, and the market expects a decrease in future arrivals [1]. - For short - fiber, the number of registered warehouse receipts is small, and short - fiber factory maintenance has increased. Under the high basis, the cost is closely correlated [1]. - For styrene, the pure - benzene price has slightly declined, styrene sales are active, the device load has recovered, the styrene inventory is concentrated, and the basis has significantly weakened [1]. - For fertilizer, domestic demand is average, the summer agricultural demand is coming to an end, and the export expectation is improving in the second half of the year [1]. - For PE, the macro - sentiment is good, there are many maintenance activities, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs, so the price oscillates strongly [1]. - For PVC, the price of coking coal has risen, the market sentiment is good, maintenance has decreased compared with the previous period, the downstream has entered the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure has increased, so the price oscillates strongly [1]. - For chlor - alkali, the maintenance is nearly over, the spot price has fallen to a low level, the liquid - chlorine price has rebounded, the comprehensive profit has been repaired, and the number of current warehouse receipts is small. Attention should be paid to the change in liquid chlorine [1]. - For LPG, the crude - oil support is insufficient, the combustion and chemical demand are in the seasonal off - season, the spot price is oscillating downward, and the PG price is oscillating narrowly [1]. - For container shipping on the European route, there is a pattern of stable reality and weak expectation. It is expected that the freight rate will peak in mid - July and show an arc - top trend in July and August, with the peak time advancing. The subsequent weeks' shipping capacity deployment is relatively sufficient [1]