中信期货2026年度策略会于2025年11月26日在上海浦东嘉里大酒店成功召开。本次策略会以"破浪前 行，扬帆起航"为主题，会期两天，共设置1个主论坛及8个分论坛，以多元化视角对下半年宏观、权 益、债券、大宗商品、汇率、海外市场等议题进行深入探讨和展望。策略会期间，来自产业、金融以及 其他行业的投资者共聚现场，共享本次投资交流的盛宴。 中信证券海外宏观首席分析师崔嵘女士及她的团队认为，在2025年关税的波折像骤雨般扰乱全球经济， 从年初持续到年末。在骤雨初晴后，2026年海外宏观面将迎来一段暂时的清朗期，这个清朗包含两层含 义。一是清朗的基本面：2026年无论地缘、财政、货币政策的不确定性下降，还是美欧日经济增长将适 度加速、通胀担忧趋于回落至"舒适区"。二是在资产配置端，要保持一份清醒。2025年多国央行降息叠 加弱美元，使得全球股市普遍呈现"水牛"；而2026年，基于她对于沃勒可能将当选美联储主席的判断， 全球降息潮在幅度上可能将低于2025年；美元在上半年波折后转强，这二者叠加可能导致全球金融市场 流动性不及2025年，总体风险资产的回报率应会低于2025年。不过，她也预计2026年AI科技的狂欢还 有 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each specific variety, it gives the following outlooks: - Oils and fats: Soybean oil and palm oil are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend, while rapeseed oil is expected to fluctuate [9]. - Protein meal: Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and CBOT soybeans are expected to fluctuate, with an expected upward - trending range - bound movement for soybean and rapeseed meal [10]. - Corn and starch: Expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [12]. - Hogs: Expected to fluctuate with a downward trend [15]. - Natural rubber: Expected to fluctuate [16]. - Synthetic rubber: Expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to short at high prices [20]. - Cotton: Short - term, there is a risk of correction but limited space; long - term, it is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [21]. - Sugar: Expected to fluctuate with a downward trend in the medium - to - long term [22]. - Pulp: Expected to fluctuate [24]. - Offset paper: Expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend following pulp [24]. - Logs: Expected to fluctuate at a low level [28]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, hogs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, offset paper, and logs. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, international trade, weather, and policies to provide short - term and medium - to - long - term outlooks for each product [9][10][12]. 3. Summary by Variety Oils and Fats - **Logic**: On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans declined due to technical resistance, while CBOT soybean oil rose. The domestic oil market showed a differentiated trend, with palm oil and soybean oil being stronger. The market is waiting for US economic data, and there are uncertainties in the Fed's monetary policy and Russian oil supply. The US soybean harvest is nearing completion, and the planting progress in Brazil and Argentina is normal. The expected arrival volume of imported soybeans in China is relatively high, and the de - stocking speed of domestic soybean oil is expected to be slow. The production of Malaysian palm oil increased in November, while exports decreased. The consumption of palm oil for biodiesel in Indonesia increased, and its inventory remained low. Indian vegetable oil imports may decline seasonally. The supply of domestic rapeseed is currently tight, but it is expected to increase later [2][9]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil and palm oil are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend, while rapeseed oil is expected to fluctuate [9]. Protein Meal - **Logic**: The USDA's supply - demand report lowered the export forecast for US soybeans. The premium of US soybeans over South American soybeans is high, but Chinese purchases have returned. The crushing volume of US soybeans in October reached a new high. South American soybean sowing is progressing smoothly. In China, the import profit of soybeans has recovered, and there are expectations of soybean auctions. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills is at a high level in recent years, and the sales and pick - up volume of soybean meal have increased. The soybean inventory of oil mills is high, and the soybean meal inventory is seasonally decreasing but still high year - on - year [10]. - **Outlook**: CBOT soybeans and Dalian soybean meal are expected to fluctuate. Soybean and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate within a range with a slight upward trend. It is recommended to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 3000 [10]. Corn and Starch - **Logic**: The domestic corn spot price has a narrow fluctuation range, with a "strong in the south, weak in the north" pattern in ports. On the supply side, cold weather has led to farmers' reluctance to sell, and the selling rhythm has slowed down. In the demand side, the demand for feed grains in the sales area is concentrated in the Northeast, and the transportation capacity is tight. The wheel - storage of the China National Grain and Oil Information Center continues [12][13]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend. Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, as the bullish factors have not been fully digested, and the spot price is expected to remain strong [13]. Hogs - **Logic**: The supply of hogs is abundant, and there is sporadic bacon - curing in the south. In the short term, the planned daily slaughter volume of large - scale farms in November has increased slightly, but the slaughter progress in the first ten days is slow. In the medium term, the supply of hogs in the fourth quarter is expected to increase. In the long term, the sow production capacity is showing signs of reduction [14]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward trend. The near - term contracts face high - capacity realization and post - poned inventory from secondary fattening, while the far - term contracts are supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction [15]. Natural Rubber - **Logic**: The market sentiment is currently strong, but there are no new marginal bullish factors from the fundamental perspective. Overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and the raw material price is firm, which supports the market to some extent. The demand has not changed significantly in the past two weeks, and the downstream purchasing sentiment is still okay after the price decline [16][17]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals have limited variables, and the rubber price is expected to continue to fluctuate in a wide range with high elasticity. There is no obvious trend in the short term [17]. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The BR futures showed a volatile trend and rose rapidly before the close, which was affected by overseas device news. The main reason for the support of the futures is the relatively stable trading of the raw material butadiene. The supply of butadiene is abundant, and the downstream buying sentiment is cautious. Some downstream enterprises have made low - price replenishments, and the market has received short - term bottom support [20]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals and the raw material side are under great pressure. It is recommended to short at high prices before there are obvious supply - demand contradictions in butadiene [20]. Cotton - **Logic**: In October, the Zhengzhou cotton futures rebounded due to the downward adjustment of production expectations and the firm purchase price of Xinjiang cotton seeds. In November, the driving force for the rebound weakened, and the supply pressure increased as the production expectation was raised again and the listing peak season arrived. The downstream demand also weakened seasonally [21]. - **Outlook**: Short - term, there is a risk of correction but limited space; long - term, it is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend. It is advisable to buy at low prices [21]. Sugar - **Logic**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures fell again this week. In the medium - to - long term, both domestic and international sugar prices have downward drivers. The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season. The new sugar pressing in the Northern Hemisphere has started, and the supply pressure will gradually increase [22]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward trend in the medium - to - long term. It is recommended to short at high prices, and the short - term price range is expected to be between 5350 - 5550 yuan/ton [22]. Pulp - **Logic**: The pulp futures continued to decline, mainly because the long - side funds left after the price reached above 5500. There is an obvious position - shifting behavior this week, which has accelerated the exit of funds from the 01 contract. The supply - demand relationship has no serious contradictions, and both supply and demand are high [24]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate. The futures market is dominated by funds, and the pulp futures are expected to fluctuate widely [24]. Offset Paper - **Logic**: The tender for offset paper has limited support. The offset paper futures have followed the pulp to weaken, but the overall fundamentals are still at the bottom in November. In the short term, factors such as paper mills' price - holding intention, downstream printing factories' rigid demand, and the limited driving force of tender prices affect the price. In December, the "volume - boosting price - cutting" by dealers may drag down the market, and in the first quarter of 2026, the market is expected to enter a sideways - consolidation phase [24]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend following pulp [24]. Logs - **Logic**: The log futures rebounded slightly in the first half of the week and then weakened again. The supply pressure is expected to ease seasonally in the first quarter of next year, but there is still long - term supply pressure. The demand is expected to be weak and stable in 2026, with a seasonal decline in the first quarter. The inventory is expected to decline slowly in the short term and then increase seasonally [27]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate at a low level [28]. Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, characteristic index, and sector index of CITICS Futures showed different degrees of increase on November 19, 2025. The agricultural product index increased by 0.07% on that day, decreased by 1.18% in the past five days, increased by 0.52% in the past month, and decreased by 2.70% since the beginning of the year [186][187].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a complex situation with different trends for various products. Some products are expected to be in a weak or fluctuating state, while others are affected by factors such as supply - demand dynamics, trade relations, and policies [5][6][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.行情观点 3.1.1.油脂 - **观点**：继续偏弱运行，关注近期低点支撑有效性，中期展望为豆油、棕油、菜油均震荡偏弱 [5]. - **逻辑**：宏观上，美国联邦政府“停摆”，中美贸易谈判将再度进行，市场对美联储降息预期强等；产业端，美豆数据暂停更新，收获进度达7层，单产下调概率大，巴西新季大豆预期产量增3.6%，种植进度21.7%，国内进口大豆到港量或处高位，豆油去库慢；马棕10月或累库，印尼生柴需求预期增加，印度植物油进口或季节性下降；10月后国内菜油库存或止降回升 [5]. 3.1.2.蛋白粕 - **观点**：空头获利了结，双粕低位大幅反弹，中期展望为豆粕、菜粕震荡 [6]. - **逻辑**：国际上，中美月底会晤前将在马来磋商，阿根廷挤占美豆出口份额，巴西大豆对华出口增加，巴西新作播种进度同比偏快；国内方面，市场采购美豆预期存变数，空头获利了结引发反弹，美豆进口增长预期叠加现实供应压力，期现货价格反弹高度有限，长期四季度国内豆粕供应充足，2026年一季度或有少量缺口，需求端豆粕消费刚需或稳中有增，水产消费淡季菜粕弱于豆粕 [6]. 3.1.3.玉米及淀粉 - **观点**：现货涨跌不一，期货震荡企稳，中期展望为震荡 [7]. - **逻辑**：国内玉米价格涨跌互现，东北丰产预期强，面临卖压冲击，华北受降雨影响，粮质霉变风险高，收割进度受扰，销区用粮企业刚需补库；短期反弹有港口缺货、直属库收购等因素，卖压驱动未完全释放，维持震荡偏弱看法，长期库存趋紧，市场短空长多 [9]. 3.1.4.生猪 - **观点**：下游抵触高价，猪价震荡，中期展望为震荡偏弱 [10]. - **逻辑**：供应上，短期二育少量入场，10月出栏量环比增5%，中期四季度出栏量预计增加，长期能繁母猪产能开始去化；需求为消费淡季，肉猪比价下跌；库存二育小幅累库；短期供需宽松，猪周期下行，长期产能去化后供应压力有望减轻 [10]. 3.1.5.天然橡胶 - **观点**：继续震荡整理运行，中期展望为震荡 [11]. - **逻辑**：天胶阶段性见底和估值偏低带来超跌反弹，RU抛储超预期，01合约仍可能炒作，NR标胶进口量低、仓单少、原料坚挺；基本面无新增信息，供应压力不大，需求端四季度轮胎出口走弱预期内，价格单边难把控，关注增仓上涨持续性 [13]. 3.1.6.合成橡胶 - **观点**：盘面延续窄幅震荡，中期展望为震荡 [15]. - **逻辑**：今年产量偏高是盘面压力，下游需求增加但增速不及产量，社会库存高位；原料丁二烯价格上周跌后整理，宏观消息和刚需买盘提振成交气氛 [15]. 3.1.7.棉花 - **观点**：成本提升抬高郑棉估值，关注贸易磋商动态，中期展望为震荡 [16]. - **逻辑**：国庆前棉价下行，节后跌势放缓反弹，原因一是新疆棉花产量预估下调，二是籽棉收购价坚挺推高皮棉加工成本；短期棉价易涨难跌，四季度上涨后有回调风险，关注中美贸易谈判 [17]. 3.1.8.白糖 - **观点**：外弱内强，糖价低位盘整，中期展望为震荡偏弱 [19]. - **逻辑**：中长期25/26榨季全球糖市供应过剩，主产国产量预计增加，糖价熊市格局；短期巴西中南部食糖产量下降但出口增加，国内销量一般，库存同比提高，进口高值，外盘走低，内盘抗跌，后续北半球新糖供应期糖价走弱压力增大 [19]. 3.1.9.纸浆 - **观点**：期货连续反弹，现货维持弱势，中期展望为震荡偏弱 [20]. - **逻辑**：期货延续反弹，现货清淡，十一后期货底部震荡；供需无明显利多，市场关注纸浆虚实结合比和年底集中注销；基本面难大涨，欧洲消费疲弱，中国刚需稳定，追涨情绪不高，国内经济偏弱，需警惕废纸系影响，01合约低位震荡，偏空交易 [20]. 3.1.10.双胶纸 - **观点**：双胶纸维持窄幅震荡，中期展望为震荡 [21]. - **逻辑**：盘面在4200元一线震荡，10月底招标旺季，现货重心持稳；纸厂排产情况不一，经销商稳价出货，市场订单跟进不足，下游印厂刚需采买，交投不活跃；成本端木浆市场少数下跌，招标季纸价有底部支撑，但华南新产能放量或牵制纸价 [22]. 3.1.11.原木 - **观点**：原木震荡运行，中期展望为震荡 [24]. - **逻辑**：特别港务费出台后盘面短期提振，海运费上涨提高估值，但现货10月末有下调预期；基本面偏弱，重庆国产材交割利空，港口出库量回落，库存累库；四季度新西兰原木进口季节性增长，库存绝对水平不低，房地产需求疲软，交割面暂无明显驱动，关注新西兰发运情况 [24]. 3.2.品种数据监测 - The report lists different product categories such as "油脂油料", "玉米、淀粉", "棉花、棉纱", "白糖", "纸浆及双胶纸", "原木", but no specific data monitoring content is provided in the given text. 3.3.评级标准 - The report provides a rating standard including "偏强" (expected increase > 2 standard deviations), "震荡偏强" (expected increase 1 - 2 standard deviations), "震荡" (expected increase/decrease within ±1 standard deviation), "震荡偏弱" (expected decrease 1 - 2 standard deviations), "偏弱" (expected decrease > 2 standard deviations), with a time - cycle of 2 - 12 weeks and 1 standard deviation = 500 - trading - day rolling standard deviation/current price [178]. 3.4.中信期货商品指数 - **综合指数**：Not provided with specific data. - **特色指数**：The "商品20指数" is 2546.54, up 0.58%; the "工业品指数" is 2229.03, up 1.12%; the "PPI商品指数" is 1342.15, up 0.86% [180]. - **板块指数**：The "农产品指数" on 2025 - 10 - 23 is 928.25, with a daily increase of 0.45%, a 5 - day increase of 1.29%, a 1 - month decrease of 3.42%, and a year - to - date decrease of 2.77% [181].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Bearish outlook, with palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil expected to oscillate weakly [2][5] - **Protein Meals**: Expected to oscillate, with soybean meal and rapeseed meal in a sideways trend [5] - **Corn and Starch**: Expected to oscillate, with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook [6][7] - **Hogs**: Expected to oscillate weakly, presenting a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation" [8] - **Natural Rubber**: Expected to oscillate and consolidate [11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to oscillate at a low level, with a possibility of hitting a new low for the year [12] - **Cotton**: Expected to oscillate, with a price range of 13100 - 13800 yuan/ton in the fourth quarter [13][15] - **Sugar**: Expected to oscillate weakly, with a recommendation of selling on rebounds [16] - **Pulp**: Expected to oscillate weakly, dominated by warehouse receipts and weak supply - demand [18] - **Offset Paper**: Expected to oscillate, with support at the bottom during the tender season [19][20] - **Logs**: Expected to oscillate, with opportunities to go long on dips in the 01 contract in the short term [21] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Oils and Fats**: Due to profit - taking, US soybeans and soybean oil fell on Tuesday, causing domestic oils and fats to decline. The Malaysian palm oil inventory may continue to build up, and factors such as the smooth planting of Brazilian soybeans and the seasonal decline in Indian vegetable oil imports increase the downward pressure on oils and fats [5]. - **Protein Meals**: Internationally, US soybeans are affected by Sino - US trade relations, with a low - level rebound. Domestically, there is a short - term expectation of increased US soybean imports, and the supply pressure is high. In the long term, the supply of soybean meal in the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to be sufficient, while there may be a small shortage in the first quarter of 2026 [5]. - **Corn and Starch**: The spot price increase has slowed down, and the futures price has declined slightly. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long term, the market is expected to be short - term bearish and long - term bullish [6][7]. - **Hogs**: The slaughter progress has accelerated, and the rebound momentum has slowed down. In the short term, the supply is abundant, and in the long term, the supply pressure is expected to ease in the second half of 2026 [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: It is in an oscillating and consolidating state. The recent rebound is a temporary oversold rebound, and the supply pressure is not significant for the time being. The demand is expected to decline in the fourth quarter [11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The futures price has returned to a narrow - range oscillation. The high production this year and the high social inventory are the main pressures. The raw material price has shown some support after a decline [12]. - **Cotton**: The purchase price has continued to rise slightly, boosting the cotton price. The estimated cotton production in Xinjiang has been revised down, and the short - term downward driving force is weakened, but there is a risk of correction after the rise [13]. - **Sugar**: The external market has continued to decline, and the weak pattern is difficult to change. In the long - term, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season, and the sugar price is in a bear market [16]. - **Pulp**: The spot trading is light, and the futures price is running at a low level. The supply - demand fundamentals are difficult to support a significant rise, and the warehouse receipts have a negative impact on the futures price [18]. - **Offset Paper**: Tenders are gradually starting, and there is support at the bottom. The market is currently in a low - activity state, and the cost support is general [19][20]. - **Logs**: There is a game on the information side, and the price is oscillating. The special port fee issue is under implementation, and the market is in a weak state due to factors such as weak demand and inventory build - up [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Oils and Fats**: Affected by profit - taking and the possible build - up of Malaysian palm oil inventory, the price is under pressure. The macro environment and industrial factors are complex, with factors such as the US government shutdown, Sino - US trade negotiations, and the production and export of soybeans and palm oil having an impact [5]. - **Protein Meals**: Internationally, US soybeans are affected by Sino - US trade and South American competition. Domestically, the short - term supply pressure is high, and the long - term supply situation varies. The demand for soybean meal is expected to be stable or increase slightly [5]. - **Corn and Starch**: The spot price increase has slowed, and the futures price has declined. The short - term supply pressure is not fully released, and the long - term inventory is expected to be tight [6][7]. - **Hogs**: The short - term supply is abundant, and the demand is in the off - season. In the long term, the supply pressure is expected to ease with the reduction of sow capacity [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: The recent rebound is an oversold one. The supply pressure is not significant, and the demand is expected to decline in the fourth quarter [11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The high production and inventory are the main pressures, and the raw material price has shown some support [12]. - **Cotton**: The estimated production has been revised down, and the purchase price has risen, driving the price up. There is a risk of correction in the fourth quarter [13]. - **Sugar**: The long - term supply is expected to be in surplus, and the short - term external market is weak. The internal market is relatively resistant to decline but may face downward pressure in the future [16]. - **Pulp**: The supply - demand fundamentals are weak, and the warehouse receipts have a negative impact on the futures price [18]. - **Offset Paper**: Tenders are starting, and there is support at the bottom. The market activity is low, and the cost support is general [19][20]. - **Logs**: The special port fee issue is affecting the market, and the demand is weak with inventory build - up [21]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report lists various varieties including oils and fats, protein meals, corn, starch, cotton, sugar, pulp, offset paper, and logs, but no specific data monitoring details are provided in the non - omitted content [23][42][55]. 3.3 Rating Standards - The rating standards include "bullish", "oscillating bullishly", "oscillating", "oscillating bearishly", and "bearish", with the time period being the next 2 - 12 weeks and the standard deviation calculated as 1 - time standard deviation = 500 - trading - day rolling standard deviation / current price [176]. 3.4 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index (including commodity 20 index and industrial products index), and sector index (agricultural products index) are presented, with their respective values and changes [178][180].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating (Soybean oil), Oscillating (Palm oil), Oscillating with an upward bias (Rapeseed oil) [1][6] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating (Soybean meal), Oscillating (Rapeseed meal) [7] - **Corn/Starch**: Oscillating with a downward bias [7][8] - **Hogs**: Oscillating with a downward bias [9] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [10][11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [13][14] - **Cotton**: Oscillating with a downward bias (Mid - term), Oscillating (Short - term) [14][15] - **Sugar**: Oscillating with a downward bias (Long - term), Bouncing back from a low level (Short - term) [16] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [17] - **Double - Gum Paper**: Oscillating with a downward bias [19] - **Logs**: Oscillating [20] 2. Core Views of the Report - The oils and fats market is highly volatile due to trade policy changes, with different trends for soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils. Protein meal rebounds from a low level after the impact of Argentine soybean exports. Corn's upward trend is hard to sustain due to improved weather. Hog prices show a near - term weak and long - term strong pattern. Natural rubber maintains a narrow - range oscillation before the holiday, and synthetic rubber stays in an oscillating range. Cotton prices are expected to be weak in the medium - term due to expected yield increases. Sugar prices are expected to decline in the long - term due to expected supply surpluses. Pulp and double - gum paper show oscillating trends, and logs follow the market with a narrow - range oscillation [1][6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes and Views - **Oils and Fats**: Concerns about delayed US soybean export demand led to a bearish oscillation of US soybeans on Wednesday, while domestic oils and fats rebounded on Thursday. The US dollar strengthened, and crude oil prices rose. US soybean harvest progress is normal, but the good - quality rate is lower than last year, and the probability of a further decline in yield is high. Argentine soybean export tax policy impact may end, and domestic soybean imports are expected to decrease seasonally. Palm oil production in Malaysia decreased in September, and exports increased, with limited inventory accumulation. Indonesian biodiesel demand for palm oil may be better than expected. Rapeseed oil imports are expected to be low before November, and domestic inventories may continue to decline [1][6] - **Protein Meal**: The impact of Argentine soybean exports has been realized, and the market rebounds from a low level. International soybean premiums are rising, and US soybeans are entering the harvest period. South American soybean sowing progress is slower than usual. In China, 20 ships of Argentine soybeans have been ordered, and short - term negative factors are exhausted. In the long - term, domestic soybean meal supply is expected to increase in Q4 2025 and the supply gap will disappear in Q1 2026 [7] - **Corn/Starch**: Domestic corn prices are weak. New corn in Heilongjiang's eastern region is on the market, and the purchase price is falling. In North China, the increase in price has slowed down due to improved weather. Argentina has cancelled corn export tariffs, but the impact is limited. In the short - term, there is pressure from new grain listing, and in the long - term, the market is expected to be short - term bearish and long - term bullish [7][8] - **Hogs**: In the short - term, hog supply is abundant, and in the medium - term, the number of hogs for slaughter is expected to increase. The "anti - involution" policy is guiding the industry to reduce production capacity. In the short - term, prices are under pressure, and in the long - term, prices may strengthen if the policy is effectively implemented [9] - **Natural Rubber**: Rubber prices oscillate before the holiday. The fundamentals are strong in the short - term, but there is an expectation of increased supply in Q4. Downstream pre - holiday stocking is basically over, and it is recommended to wait and see before the holiday [10][11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The BR market continues to oscillate within a range. There are many device overhauls expected from September to November, and the price is at a low level, so the bearish sentiment has decreased. The raw material butadiene price oscillates slightly [13][14] - **Cotton**: New - season Xinjiang cotton production is expected to increase significantly. The inventory is tight in the near - term and loose in the long - term. Demand has improved seasonally, but the sustainability is questionable. Before new cotton harvest, the purchase price may support the futures price, but in the later stage, the price may decline [14][15] - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar prices have fallen below 5500 yuan/ton, and the decline has slowed down. In the short - term, the international trade flow is loose, and domestic consumption and imports are not favorable. In the long - term, global sugar supply is expected to be abundant, and prices are under downward pressure [16] - **Pulp**: Pulp futures oscillate at a low level. After the 09 contract delivery, the market has reached a consensus on the price. The US dollar - denominated pulp price is expected to decline, and the paper market has not effectively transmitted the price. The overall fundamentals are weak, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [17] - **Double - Gum Paper**: Double - gum paper futures oscillate narrowly, and the position has decreased. The spot market is stable, but the demand is weak, and there is no clear upward or downward driver in the short - term. The long - term fundamentals are weak [19] - **Logs**: Logs follow the market and oscillate upwards, maintaining an oscillation around 800 yuan. The spot price is stable, and the inventory has decreased. The market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectation, and the fundamentals have improved marginally [20] 3.2 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index (including commodity 20 index and industrial products index), and sector index (agricultural products index) show different trends. The specialty index and industrial products index have increased, and the agricultural products index has a daily increase of 0.65%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.81%, a 1 - month decrease of 1.97%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.39% [179][181]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: US May ADP employment growth fell short of expectations and the previous value; OECD cut the global growth forecast for the second time this year, slashing the US economic growth forecast from 2.8% to 1.6%. After the China - US tariff relief, US consumer confidence was significantly boosted, but the improvement in the labor market was limited, and the long - term economic resilience still needed to be observed [6]. - Domestic macro: Against the backdrop of the continued implementation of the "rush export/trans - shipment" and "two new" policies, the profits and PMI of manufacturing enterprises generally maintained strong resilience. The trade friction easing and policies supported the overall stability of manufacturing production and operation [6]. - Asset views: For major asset classes, maintain the view of more hedging and more volatility overseas and a structural market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. Overseas, even if Trump's tariffs are blocked, it cannot solve the fundamental deficit problem in the US. In China, the growth - stabilizing policy remains steadfast, and the second - quarter economic growth rate is supported by export resilience and the tariff - easing window period. The bond market still has value for dip - buying after the capital pressure eases. The stock market and commodities return to the fundamental logic, showing short - term range - bound fluctuations [6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - Overseas: US May ADP employment increased by 37,000, lower than the expected 110,000 and the previous value of 62,000. The number of job vacancies in April increased, and the consumer confidence index in May jumped from 85.7 to 98.0, but the labor market improvement was limited [6]. - Domestic: From January to April, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises was 2.11702 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points month - on - month [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Macro - Domestic: Moderate reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and short - term fiscal implementation of established policies [8]. - Overseas: The inflation expectation structure flattened, the economic growth expectation improved, and the stagflation trading cooled down [8]. 3.2.2 Finance - Stock index futures: Focus on local large - consumption hotspots, with market sentiment oscillating [8]. - Stock index options: Volatility declined continuously, and cautious covered call strategies were recommended, with the market oscillating [8]. - Treasury bond futures: Treasury bond futures rose collectively, and the market oscillated [8]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: Due to the better - than - expected progress of China - US negotiations, precious metals continued to adjust in the short term, with the market oscillating [8]. 3.2.4 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Attention was paid to the game between peak - season expectations and the implementation of price increases, with the market oscillating [8]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - Steel: Pessimistic demand expectations and a downward - moving cost support, with the market oscillating [8]. - Iron ore: Overseas shipments increased, and the price oscillated [8]. - Coke: As the off - season deepened, there was still an expectation of price cuts, with the market oscillating and falling [8]. - Coking coal: Upstream inventory accumulation intensified, and the price remained weak, with the market oscillating and falling [8]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: Inventory continued to accumulate, and the copper price oscillated at a high level, with the market oscillating and rising [8]. - Alumina: The event of mining license revocation was not yet finalized, and the alumina contract oscillated at a high level, with the market oscillating and falling [8]. - Aluminum: With the easing of trade tensions, the aluminum price oscillated strongly [8]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Supply pressure persisted, and attention was paid to macro and geopolitical disturbances, with the market oscillating [11]. - LPG: Demand remained weak, and PG was in short - term bottom - finishing, with the market oscillating [11]. - Asphalt: The asphalt futures price was overestimated and awaited a decline [11]. - Methanol: Coal prices temporarily stabilized, and methanol oscillated [11]. 3.2.8 Agriculture - Oils: There was an expectation of improvement in China - Canada trade relations, but rapeseed oil still performed weakly, with the market oscillating [11]. - Protein meal: The spot market sentiment cooled down, and the contract price followed the correction, with the market oscillating [11]. - Corn/Starch: The trading was dull, and the futures price oscillated [11]. - Pork: The supply for slaughter increased, and the pork price continued to fall, with the market oscillating and falling [11].