由于供应紧张、白银ETF需求强劲带动、美联储降息预期升温等多重因素带动下，白银近期呈现出超越 黄金涨幅的强势格局。 昨夜今晨，现货白银持续突破历史新高，首次站上58美元/盎司，最高触及58.84美元/盎司，沪银夜盘也 收涨超5%。 校 对：张晓燕 值班主任：费 煜 值班编审：岳 威 南华期货表示：从中长期维度看，央行购金以及投资需求增长前景（货币宽松前景、阶段性避险交易， 以及对AI股防御式配置需求）仍将助推贵金属价格重心继续上抬。短期看，低库存现实，以及需求短 期释放可能性增加价格向上弹性，周内白银已经续刷新高，伦敦银在突破55美元/盎司关口后，目标位 已进一步上抬至65美元/盎司，第一阻力60美元/盎司整数关口；伦敦现货黄金阻力4250美元/盎司，强阻 力4400美元/盎司，支撑4000美元/盎司。 来 源：钱江晚报 责任编辑：王 淼 不过，12月2日早盘，现货白银突发跳水，截至发稿时跌超2%，交投于56.777美元/盎司附近。至此，现 货白银年内涨幅在昨天突破100%后，稍有回撤，显著高于现货黄金的60%涨幅。 在现货白银下挫的同时，伦敦现货黄金也震荡走低，截至发稿时，现货黄金下跌0.5%，交投于421 ...

本周，市场还将迎来更多关键数据，包括周三的11月ADP就业报告和周五的9月个人消费支出（PCE）物价指数，后者是美联储最青睐的通胀指标。这些数 据如果继续显示疲软，将进一步巩固降息预期，推动金价走高。美联储主席鲍威尔将于当地时间周一晚些时候（北京时间周二上午9:00）发表讲话，这被视 为提供政策线索的重要时刻。如果鲍威尔释放更多鸽派信号，金市将迎来新一轮买盘涌入。反之，如果出现"鹰派降息"的迹象，即降息伴随短期内不再降息 的暗示，金价可能短期承压，但长期趋势仍向上。全球债市波动与美联储继任者谜局 多头仍有所顾忌，因为周一美国国债收益率大幅上扬，10年期国债收益率涨至4.096%，创下自7月中旬以来的最大单日涨幅；30年期收益率升至4.744%，两 年期收益率也攀升至3.534%，这意味着持有黄金的机会成本增加。 美元指数：图表显示目前美指为震荡反弹行情。 白银图表： 基本面： 周二（12月02日）白银亚盘大幅冲高回落，等待支撑位多单布局。白银暴涨创纪录，年内涨幅超100%如果说黄金的上涨是稳健的，那么白银的表现则可以 用"爆炸性"来形容。周一，白银价格大涨3.8%，收报每盎司58.57美元，盘中更是触及58. ...

上证报中国证券网讯（记者 张骄）北京时间12月2日凌晨，伦敦现货白银价格首次突破58美元/盎司， 续写新高纪录，盘中最大涨幅超4%。至此，现货白银年内累计涨幅已超100%，成为本年度名副其实的 贵金属"领涨王"。 美联储货币政策转向是此轮贵金属定价的关键变量。12月2日，据CME"美联储观 察"，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率升至87.6%。这一明确的宽松信号，正在重塑白银的金融属性。 此外，分析报告显示，纽约COMEX白银期货进入交割期，白银供应趋紧。这一市场预期也为白银的火 爆再添"一把柴"。 降息预期升温催化"超级行情" 在美联储货币政策宽松预期与全球供应趋紧的双重推 动下，白银掀起"主升浪"。 五矿期货研究中心贵金属研究员钟俊轩告诉上海证券报记者，现任美联储 主席鲍威尔的任期将于2026年5月结束，而他的继任者将对美联储后续数年的货币政策倾向产生显著影 响。 美联储官员近期的鸽派言论强化了上述预期。近日，美联储理事米兰、沃勒均表态支持降息。此 外，美联储"三把手"、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯日前也表示，美联储"近期"仍可能降息，而不会危及其通 胀目标。 从年内行情轨迹看，白银"牛市"追随黄金，但爆发力更强 ...

在于供应紧张、白银ETF需求强劲带动、美联储降息预期升温等多重因素带动下，白银近期呈现出超越 黄金涨幅的强势格局。 昨夜今晨，现货白银持续突破历史新高，首次站上58美元/盎司，最高触及58.84美元/盎司，沪银夜盘也 收涨超5%。 不过，12月2日早盘，现货白银突发跳水，截至发稿时跌超2%，交投于56.777美元/盎司附近。至此，现 货白银年内涨幅在昨天突破100%后，稍有回撤，显著高于现货黄金的60%涨幅。 潮新闻客户端 记者 吴恩慧 在现货白银下挫的同时，伦敦现货黄金也震荡走低，截至发稿时，现货黄金下跌0.5%，交投于4210美 元/盎司附近。 南华期货表示：从中长期维度看，央行购金以及投资需求增长前景（货币宽松前景、阶段性避险交易， 以及对AI股防御式配置需求）仍将助推贵金属价格重心继续上抬。短期看，低库存现实，以及需求短 期释放可能性增加价格向上弹性，周内白银已经续刷新高，伦敦银在突破55美元/盎司关口后，目标位 已进一步上抬至65美元/盎司，第一阻力60美元/盎司整数关口；伦敦现货黄金阻力4250美元/盎司，强阻 力4400美元/盎司，支撑4000美元/盎司。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a shift in gold demand towards China, as the Shanghai Gold Exchange's reserves have reached a 10-year low, impacting global gold prices [1] - Current gold prices are reported at $4247.29 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.43%, and fluctuations between $4205.33 and $4256.20 [1][2] - The gold-silver ratio has reached extreme levels, surpassing 100 in April, which is significantly higher than the historical average of 50-60, indicating a unique market demand for gold over silver [3] Group 2 - Investors are closely monitoring the potential peace agreement in Ukraine, with U.S. envoy Steve Vitkov visiting Moscow for discussions with President Vladimir Putin [4] - The market is awaiting the release of the U.S. ISM manufacturing index for November, which could influence Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [3] - Gold's price movements are critical, with a key support level identified at $4218; a drop below this level may indicate a potential adjustment in the market [5]

作为立足香港、辐射亚太的专业贵金属交易机构，香港第一金PPLI始终以全球化视角追踪市场变量。刚刚过去的周末，全球政经舞台上演的"特朗普式风 暴"，正为黄金资产注入强劲上涨动能——地缘对峙升级、政策连续性崩塌与央行独立性受冲击的三重逻辑共振，让黄金的避险对冲价值愈发凸显。 核心结论：当前黄金处于"乱世买金"的战略布局窗口，短期回调即是多单介入良机，中长期上涨趋势明确。地缘焦点：美委对峙"假降温真升温" 香港第一金 【香港第一金PPLI 市场研判】2025年12月1日 特朗普公开宣称"关闭领空不意味军事行动"，并提及与马杜罗的直接通话，看似释放降温信号，但《迈阿密先驱报》的独家爆料揭开了谈判破裂的真相： 马杜罗提出"保留军队控制权""亲信全球刑事豁免"两大硬诉求 特朗普当场驳回，谈判直接破裂 美军战机仍在委海岸巡航，对方启动军演+封锁空域，剑拔弩张 香港第一金PPLI交易团队提醒：美国"后院"的军事对峙历来是黄金的"隐形推手"，1989年美军入侵巴拿马、2011年拉美债务危机期间，伦敦金一个月内均涨 超8%。 站在香港国际金融中心的视角，香港第一金PPLI交易团队尤为清楚，美国"后院"的军事对峙历来是黄金的"隐形 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Data Daily [4] - Report Date: December 1, 2025 [5] - Research Institution: ITG Guomao Futures [3] - Researcher: Baishuna from the Precious Metals and New Energy Research Center [5] - Investment Consulting Number: Z0013700 [5] - Qualification Number: F3023916 [5] Group 2: Price Tracking Inner and Outer Market Gold and Silver Price Tracking (15:00 prices) - On November 28, 2025, London Gold Spot was at $4,186.79 per ounce, London Silver Spot at $53.99 per ounce, COMEX Gold at $4,221.30 per ounce, COMEX Silver at $54.65 per ounce, AU2512 at 949.66 yuan per gram, AG2512 at 12,724 yuan per kilogram, AU (T+D) at 948.04 yuan per gram, and AG (T+D) at 12,671 yuan per kilogram [5]. - Compared to November 27, 2025, the price increases were 0.7%, 1.1%, 0.8%, 1.3%, 0.7%, 1.7%, 0.7%, and 1.4% respectively [5]. Spread/Ratio Price Tracking (15:00 prices) - On November 28, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was -1.62 yuan per gram, the silver TD - SHFE active spread was -53 yuan per kilogram, the gold inner - outer (TD - London) spread was -4.84 yuan per gram, the silver inner - outer (TD - London) spread was -1,075 yuan per kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver ratio was 74.64, the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 77.24, AU2602 - 2512 was 4.26 yuan per gram, and AG2602 - 2512 was 3 yuan per kilogram [5]. - Compared to November 27, 2025, the price increases were 1.2%, 307.7%, 17.3%, -1.9%, -1.0%, -0.5%, 16.4%, and -78.6% respectively [5]. Group 3: Position and Inventory Data Position Data - On November 28, 2025, the Gold ETF - SPDR was 1,045.43 tons, the Silver ETF - SLV was 15,610.5435 tons, the non - commercial long position of COMEX Gold was 278,405 contracts, the non - commercial short position was 74,489 contracts, the non - commercial net long position was 203,916 contracts, the non - commercial long position of COMEX Silver was 67,041 contracts, the non - commercial short position was 23,860 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position was 43,181 contracts [5]. - Compared to November 26, 2025, the changes were 0.00%, 0.18%, -7.44%, 8.20%, -12.09%, -0.93%, 11.23%, and -6.57% respectively [5]. Inventory Data - On November 28, 2025, the SHFE Gold inventory was 90,873 kilograms, the SHFE Silver inventory was 558,882 kilograms, the COMEX Gold inventory was 36,357,103 troy ounces, and the COMEX Silver inventory was 456,772,056 troy ounces [5]. - Compared to November 26 - 27, 2025, the changes were 0.50%, 2.18%, -0.57%, and -0.29% respectively [5]. Group 4: Interest Rates/Foreign Exchange/Restock Market - On November 28, 2025, the US dollar/CNY central parity rate was 7.08, the US dollar index was 99.44, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.47%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.02%, the VIX was 16.35, the S&P 500 was 6,849.09, and NYMEX crude oil was 58.48 [5]. - Compared to November 26 - 27, 2025, the changes were 0.01%, -0.15%, 0.58%, 0.50%, -4.89%, 0.54%, and -0.12% respectively [5]. Group 5: Market Review - On November 28, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 0.76% to 953.92 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 3.21% to 12,727 yuan per kilogram. On the night of the previous Friday, gold and silver prices rose. Shanghai silver rose 5.17% to 13,191 yuan per kilogram, hitting a record high; Shanghai gold rose 0.97% to 959.82 yuan per gram [3]. Group 6: Influencing Factors Analysis and Short - Term Outlook - Due to increased supply concerns, the squeeze - out risk in the silver market has been fermenting. Coupled with the overseas Thanksgiving holiday, poor market liquidity, and a glitch in the QKE trading system, market speculative sentiment was further amplified, pushing silver prices up significantly. London spot silver rose over 5% last Friday, breaking through the $56 per ounce mark, COMEX silver rose over 6% and broke through the $57 per ounce mark, and Shanghai silver futures rose over 8% and broke through the 13,000 yuan per kilogram mark, with all three markets hitting new record highs [6]. - Gold was also supported by the sentiment from the silver squeeze - out and the high probability of a Fed rate cut in December, showing a strong performance. In the short term, precious metal prices are expected to remain strong under the background of the silver squeeze - out. However, in December, attention should be paid to the December silver delivery situation on the SHFE and the changes in inventory. If the supply shortage eases or the December delivery volume in New York is not as large as the market rumor, silver prices may face significant fluctuations [6]. - In the short - term strategy, existing long positions can be held, while for those not yet in the market, gold can be bought on dips, and participation in silver should be cautious [6]. Group 7: Medium - to - Long - Term View - In the medium - to - long - term, the Fed is still in a rate - cut cycle, global geopolitical uncertainties persist, the US debt is unsustainable, and great - power competition intensifies, which will increase the credit risk of the US dollar in the long run. Global central bank gold purchases continue. Therefore, the medium - to - long - term center of gold prices is likely to continue to move up. Long - term investors are advised to mainly allocate by buying on dips [6].

Group 1: Price Performance - London gold price is 4191.05, up 37.10 [2] - London silver price is 53.91, up 0.51 [2] - London platinum price is 1604.00, up 41.00 [2] - London palladium price is 1423.00, up 12.00 [2] - WTI crude oil price is 58.55, unchanged [2] - LME copper price is 10995.00, up 59.50 [2] - Dollar index is 99.55, unchanged [2] - Euro - US dollar exchange rate is 1.16, unchanged [2] - Pound - US dollar exchange rate is 1.32, unchanged [2] - US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rate is 156.30, unchanged [2] - US 10 - year TIPS is 1.79, unchanged [2] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX silver inventory is 14248.09, unchanged [2] - SHFE silver inventory is 558.88, up 11.90 [2] - Gold ETF holdings are 1045.43, unchanged [2] - Silver ETF holdings are 15610.54, unchanged [2] - SGE silver inventory is 822.42, unchanged [2] - SGE gold deferred fee payment direction changes by - 1.00 [2] - SGE silver deferred fee payment direction is 1, unchanged [2]

Group 1: Precious Metals Market Overview - The precious metals sector has regained focus, with COMEX silver futures reaching a historical high of $57.245 per ounce, marking a weekly increase of 13% [1] - Gold and copper prices have also surged, with COMEX gold surpassing $4263 per ounce and LME copper nearing historical highs, indicating a collective rally in precious metals [1] - Silver has led the charge with a cumulative increase of 16% in November, driven by global economic uncertainty and rising inflation expectations [1][2] Group 2: Investment Trends - The largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, currently holds 15,610.54 tons, reflecting strong investment interest [2] - Technical analysis suggests a bullish outlook for silver, attracting speculative investors [2] - The speculative net long positions in COMEX silver futures have increased, indicating heightened market activity, although liquidity risks may amplify short-term volatility [2] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The World Silver Association forecasts a decline in global silver demand to 1.12 billion ounces by 2025, a 4% year-on-year decrease [2] - However, supply is expected to face a larger deficit, with a projected shortfall of 9.5 million ounces over the next five years [2] Group 4: Long-term Price Predictions - UBS has raised its silver price forecast, predicting it could reach $60 per ounce by 2026, with potential spikes to $65 per ounce [3] - Strong investment demand is anticipated to support further price increases in the coming year [3] Group 5: Broader Market Sentiment - Gold prices have also seen significant gains, surpassing $4200 per ounce with a year-to-date increase of over 50% [4] - Factors such as high U.S. debt, geopolitical uncertainties, and central bank gold purchases are providing long-term support for gold prices [4] - Copper prices have risen sharply, reflecting optimistic expectations for global economic growth, with LME copper reaching approximately $11,210 per ton [4][5] Group 6: Future Price Expectations - JP Morgan projects copper prices to rise to $12,000 per ton by Q1 2026, with an average price of $12,075 per ton for the entire year [5] - Goldman Sachs expresses a strong preference for gold among precious metals, citing its enduring structural support and stability as a value storage tool [5]

Core Insights - International precious metal prices have significantly increased, with London spot silver prices surpassing $56 per ounce, setting a new historical record [1] - Silver futures for March delivery on the New York Commodity Exchange closed at $57.16 per ounce, marking a record high with a rise of 6.6% [1] - The surge in silver prices is attributed to rising expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, increased holdings in silver ETFs, and ongoing supply tightness [1] - International gold prices also rebounded to a half-month high, with February delivery gold futures on the New York Commodity Exchange closing at $4254.9 per ounce, up 1.25% [1] - A cooling system failure at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange data center on the evening of the 27th caused trading interruptions across stock, forex, bond, and commodity markets, amplifying market volatility [1]