Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of enhancing technological self-reliance and independence as a key goal for China's economic and social development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with a focus on building a modern industrial system and boosting consumption through the development of the real economy [1][3][4]. Summary by Sections Economic Goals and Strategies - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims for significant improvements in economic strength, technological capabilities, national defense, and overall national power by 2035, with a target of achieving a per capita GDP comparable to that of moderately developed countries [1][5]. - Key strategies include building a modern industrial system, strengthening the real economy, and accelerating high-level technological self-reliance to lead new productive forces [1][4]. Technological Self-Reliance - The concept of "technological self-reliance" reflects a shift in China's approach to technology, moving from merely acquiring technology from international markets to focusing on qualitative breakthroughs in technology development [3][4]. - The article highlights the need for increased investment in technology and research and development to adapt to complex external conditions, particularly in light of challenges such as trade wars and the COVID-19 pandemic [3][4]. Manufacturing and Consumption - The article stresses the critical role of manufacturing in enhancing consumption levels, arguing that simply providing financial incentives is insufficient; instead, a robust manufacturing sector is essential for creating wealth and improving overall consumption [6][7]. - It notes that China's current per capita GDP of over $13,400 must grow to approximately $30,000 within ten years to reach the target set for moderately developed countries, emphasizing the need for a strong manufacturing base to achieve this goal [5][6]. Investment in People - The article discusses the shift from investing in physical infrastructure to investing in human capital, highlighting the importance of education, technology, and talent development as central to economic and technological advancement [8][9]. - It argues that the ultimate goal of economic and technological development is to improve people's livelihoods, making "investment in people" a crucial aspect of the development strategy [8][9]. Global Economic Engagement - The article introduces the concept of "Chinese people’s economy," which encompasses the global economic activities of Chinese individuals and businesses, suggesting that both domestic and international economic strategies are essential for comprehensive economic development [9][10]. - It emphasizes the need for Chinese enterprises to engage in international markets while simultaneously strengthening the domestic economy [9].

近日，党的二十届四中全会在北京举行。全会提出了"十五五"时期经济社会发展的主要目标，其中之一 是"科技自立自强水平大幅提高"。 全会还提出，到2035年实现我国经济实力、科技实力、国防实力、综合国力和国际影响力大幅跃升，人 均国内生产总值达到中等发达国家水平，人民生活更加幸福美好，基本实现社会主义现代化。 围绕上述目标，全会提出了"建设现代化产业体系，巩固壮大实体经济根基""加快高水平科技自立自 强，引领发展新质生产力"等战略任务。 如何理解"十五五"时期经济社会发展的主要目标？现代化产业体系建设、科技自立自强、大力提振消 费、加大改善民生力度等战略任务之间，存在哪些内在关联，如何协同推进？为此，21世纪经济报道对 香港中文大学（深圳）前海国际事务研究院院长郑永年进行了专访。 郑永年认为，"十五五"时期要提振消费、提高消费率，并不能简单依靠发钱，关键还是要通过发展实体 经济、发展制造业，来提高全社会消费水平。在他看来，一切经济和科技发展的落脚点都在民生，在于 能否更好地"投资于人"，这也是讨论"十五五"发展的重要视角。 "十四五"期间，我国在科技领域实现了很多突破，这为我国的经济发展带来了很大的信心，也为"十 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of building a modern industrial system and strengthening the foundation of the real economy as a primary task in China's 14th Five-Year Plan, with a focus on high-quality development and innovation-driven growth [2][3]. Group 1: Modern Industrial System - The construction of a modern industrial system is prioritized in the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a focus on solidifying and expanding the real economy [2][3]. - Key tasks include upgrading traditional industries, fostering new and future industries, and enhancing the quality and efficiency of the manufacturing sector [3][5]. - The manufacturing sector is projected to contribute significantly to global manufacturing growth, with an expected increase in value added from 26.6 trillion yuan to 33.6 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan [4]. Group 2: Traditional Industries - Traditional industries account for approximately 80% of the manufacturing sector's value added, serving as the foundation of China's industrial system [5]. - The government aims to enhance the competitiveness of key traditional industries such as chemicals, machinery, and shipbuilding, with an estimated market space increase of around 10 trillion yuan over the next five years [5]. Group 3: Emerging Industries - The plan includes the development of strategic emerging industries such as new energy, new materials, and aerospace, which are expected to create several trillion-yuan markets [7]. - The focus on innovation and reform is crucial for the growth of emerging industries, which currently represent only about 13.4% of GDP compared to traditional industries [8]. Group 4: State-Owned Enterprises - Central enterprises have invested approximately 8.6 trillion yuan in strategic emerging industries since the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a projected revenue of over 11 trillion yuan in 2024 [9]. - The government encourages state-owned enterprises to concentrate capital in emerging industries to enhance competitiveness and ensure strategic security in critical areas [10][11].

【导读】私募基金解读党的二十届四中全会精神：为投资提供重要指导，关注科技创新、扩大内需等主 线 10月20日至23日，党的二十届四中全会在北京举行，全会审议通过了《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社 会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》。10月23日，党的二十届四中全会公报（以下简称公报）发布。 紫阁投资表示，今年前三季度GDP增速为5.2%，超过了年初设定值。不过，相对于上半年5.3%的增 速，三季度经济增速下滑，四季度经济增长依然面临压力。因此，市场期待后续在稳增长、稳就业等方 面出台政策，加大促进经济企稳的力度。 星石投资副总经理、高级合伙人方磊表示，全会提出要"构建以先进制造业为骨干的现代化产业体系"， 后续制造业增加值占GDP比重可能是重要指标；公报提出"加快建设制造强国、质量强国、航天强国、 交通强国、网络强国"，为"十五五"产业政策指明方向；全会提出要"抓住新一轮科技革命和产业变革历 史机遇"，显示科技创新可能逐渐成为新的经济增长逻辑和主要动力，科技领域蕴含中长期机会；此 外，对内需的重视程度明显提升，加大在需求端的发力力度并着力培育新的消费增长点，中期视角下消 费的投资机会有望增加。 世诚投资表示，"十五 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Long - term: Multiple policy goals and strategic directions in the announcement will have a profound impact on the medium - and long - term interest rate center. Maintaining a relatively stable manufacturing proportion can reduce the downward traction on the interest rate center, and the growth of total factor productivity brought by technological innovation can hedge the decline of the demographic dividend [5][28] - Short - term: The implementation of the "15th Five - Year Plan" has a positive reaction on risk assets, suppressing the bond market on the emotional level. The previous rebound of the bond market may be coming to an end, and it is advisable to consider phased defense after the market sentiment returns to the neutral range [6][28] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Strategy Thinking: Interest Rate Trends from the "15th Five - Year Plan" Direction Question 1: Impact of "Manufacturing Proportion" on the Medium - and Long - Term Interest Rate Center - There is a positive correlation between manufacturing proportion and the long - term interest rate center, which is reflected in both domestic and overseas markets. In China, from 2006 - 2013, the manufacturing proportion was stable above 30%, and the interest rate showed a box - shaped shock. After 2013, the manufacturing proportion declined, and the interest rate trended downward. Overseas, similar relationships can be observed in the data of the US, Japan, India, and Thailand [2][8][9] - The reasons for the correlation include changes in capital demand, productivity growth rate, and the balance of savings and investment. A decline in the manufacturing proportion may lead to a slowdown in capital demand, a slowdown in productivity growth, and an imbalance in savings and investment [3][9] - According to historical data regression, for every 1 - percentage - point decrease in the manufacturing proportion, the interest rate center in China, Japan, and the US will decline by about 20, 50 - 60, and 50 - 100 basis points respectively. If the manufacturing proportion remains stable during the "15th Five - Year Plan", the downward traction on the interest rate may weaken [18] Question 2: Impact of the Development of the Technology Industry on the Interest Rate Center - The development of the technology industry generally has an upward - pushing effect on the interest rate center. Using the "proportion of high - tech exports in the total value of manufactured goods exports" as a proxy variable, a positive correlation can be found between the high - tech product export proportion and the interest rate center in China, the US, and Japan. The development of the technology industry can improve total factor productivity, hedge the demographic dividend, and promote the potential economic growth rate [4][22] Question 3: Implicit Growth Target of the 2035 Vision Plan - Given that the per - capita GDP in 2024 was $13,400, assuming an average nominal growth rate of 5%, 5.5%, or 6% by 2035, the per - capita GDP will reach $23,000, $24,000, and $25,000 respectively, meeting the "medium - developed country level". It is speculated that the target growth rate during the "15th Five - Year Plan" may be set at around 5% [5][25] 3.2 Transaction Review: Upward Shift of the Yield Curve - **Funding Situation**: The central bank made a small - scale net injection of funds this week, with a total net injection of 78.1 billion yuan. The central bank will conduct a 900 - billion - yuan 1 - year MLF operation next Monday, with a net injection of 200 billion yuan after the maturity of 700 billion yuan of MLF. The funding situation remained stable, with the operating centers of DR001, DR007, and DR014 moving slightly or significantly upward [29] - **Yield Curve**: The yields of treasury bonds of all maturities increased this week. The 1 - year and 10 - year treasury bond yields increased by 3bp and 2bp to 1.47% and 1.85% respectively, and the 10 - 1 term spread remained basically flat at 38bp. The bond market trend was "up - and - down", affected by various factors such as Sino - US talks, market easing expectations, and the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee [35] - **Duration and Indicator Signals**: From October 20th to 24th, the median duration of public funds continued to rise slightly to 2.76 years, and the duration divergence index rose slightly to 0.57. Among the ten interest rate synchronization indicators this week, "positive" and "negative" signals each accounted for 5/10, and the copper - gold ratio sent a "negative" signal [41][43]

Group 1 - The core objective of the 14th Five-Year Plan is to significantly enhance the level of technological self-reliance and strength, which is crucial for China's economic development amidst external challenges such as trade wars and the pandemic [3][4]. - The concept of "new quality productivity" has been introduced in the 15th Five-Year Plan, reflecting a shift in China's modernization strategy and emphasizing the need for greater breakthroughs in technology [4][5]. - The goal of achieving a per capita GDP of approximately $30,000 by 2035 requires substantial efforts, as current per capita GDP is over $13,400, indicating a significant gap to close [5][6]. Group 2 - The emphasis on maintaining a reasonable proportion of manufacturing is critical, as advanced manufacturing is seen as the backbone of a modern industrial system, which is essential for economic stability and growth [5][6]. - The development of the manufacturing sector is identified as a key step to enhance overall consumption levels, as economic growth and consumption are closely linked [6][7]. - The shift from "investing in things" to "investing in people" highlights a transformation in development strategy, focusing on human capital and its connection to technological innovation [7][8]. Group 3 - The concept of "Chinese people economy" emphasizes the importance of both domestic and international economic activities, suggesting that Chinese enterprises should engage globally while strengthening local economies [9]. - The integration of "Chinese people economy" into the broader economic strategy reflects a recognition of globalization and the need for Chinese businesses to expand their reach [9].

Group 1 - The core objective of the "15th Five-Year Plan" is to achieve significant results in high-quality development, which aligns with the primary task of Chinese-style modernization [3][5] - The plan emphasizes the importance of maintaining a reasonable proportion of the manufacturing industry and constructing a modern industrial system centered on advanced manufacturing [8] - The focus of the "15th Five-Year Plan" is on economic construction, with key areas including technology, new industrial chains, domestic markets, consumption, and people's livelihoods [10] Group 2 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" outlines strategic and innovative measures to build a strong domestic market, accelerate agricultural modernization, enhance social welfare, and promote a comprehensive green transition [12] - The plan highlights the need to combine investments in physical assets and human capital, emphasizing that expanding domestic demand and investing in people are two sides of the same coin [15][17] - The future five years will see a push for high-level opening-up, encouraging high-quality enterprises to enter China while supporting Chinese companies in forming their own industrial chains [20][22] Group 3 - The plan aims to accelerate self-reliance in high-level technology and lead the development of new quality productivity, seizing opportunities from the new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation [30] - It stresses the importance of original innovation and tackling key core technologies, promoting deep integration of technological and industrial innovation [32] - The plan calls for breaking down barriers to market flow and optimizing resource allocation to create a virtuous cycle of demand and supply [39] Group 4 - The plan identifies key areas for technological breakthroughs, particularly in artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and advanced nuclear energy technologies, which are expected to see explosive growth in the next five years [45][49]

Group 1 - The primary goal of the "15th Five-Year Plan" is to achieve significant results in high-quality development, which is aligned with the modernization of China [5][7] - The plan emphasizes the importance of maintaining a reasonable proportion of the manufacturing industry and building a modern industrial system centered on advanced manufacturing [10][12] - The focus is on economic construction, with key areas including strengthening the domestic market, accelerating agricultural modernization, and enhancing the quality of life [13][15] Group 2 - The plan outlines a significant market opportunity in advanced manufacturing, estimating a potential market scale of 10 trillion yuan over the next five years [20] - There is a growing demand for skilled professionals across various sectors, from upstream components to downstream services, creating numerous job opportunities [21] - Strategic emerging industries such as new energy, new materials, and aerospace are expected to generate trillion-level markets, with additional opportunities in quantum technology and biomanufacturing [23] Group 3 - The health and welfare sectors are highlighted as areas of growth, with an expected increase in life expectancy to 80 years, leading to a substantial market for elderly care services [27] - The service industry is set to expand and improve, integrating with manufacturing and agriculture, thus creating new opportunities for traditional service providers [25][29] - Overall, the economic landscape presents various entry points for individuals and businesses to align with national policies and capitalize on emerging trends [29]

Inflation Data - In September, the US CPI rose by 0.1 percentage points to 3.0%, marking the highest level since the beginning of the year[2] - Core CPI fell slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 3.0%, which was below market expectations[2][3] - The month-on-month increase in core CPI was 0.23%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points from August[3] Economic Factors - The increase in durable goods prices was 0.32% month-on-month, indicating ongoing effects from tariffs imposed earlier this year[3] - Labor market cooling and a weak real estate market contributed to the decline in inflation, with core non-durable goods and core services rising by 0.08% and 0.24%, respectively[3][4] - Despite a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, long-term interest rates remained high, limiting the rebound in core CPI[3][4] Future Outlook - The potential for a rebound in core CPI exists in the first half of next year due to the recovery of key factors and base effects[4][16] - The upcoming fiscal expansion may boost manufacturing investment and create jobs, impacting inflation dynamics positively[4][16] - The US dollar index may gain momentum from economic cycles and monetary easing in developed economies[4][16]

【导读】六大券商首席解读党的二十届四中全会公报 中国基金报 券商报道组 党的二十届四中全会 10 月 20 日至 23 日在北京举行，会议审议通过了《中共中央关于制定 国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》。 10 月 23 日，党的二十届四中全会公报发 布。五年规划对国民经济和社会发展具有重要意义，对此，中国基金报记者采访了多位券商 首席对公报和规划建议内容进行解读。 受访券商首席分别为 广发证券首席经济学家郭磊、中信建投证券首席经济学家黄文涛、申万 宏源证券首席经济学家赵伟、方正证券首席宏观经济学家燕翔、浙商证券首席经济学家李 超，以及中金公司研究部首席国内策略分析师李求索 。 受访券商首席表示，全会公报明确提出 " 十五五 " 时期经济社会发展的主要目标。其中 " 高 质量发展取得显著成效 " 位列第一，是最主要的目标。预计 " 十五五 " 经济增速目标设置将 较为灵活，更突出 " 提质增效 " 。 受访券商首席认为，在必须遵循的原则方面，会议新增 " 坚持以经济建设为中心 " ，并将其 置于 " 以推动高质量发展为主题 " 之前，进一步凸显对经济发展的重视。在科技创新方面， 加强 " 原始创新 " ...