2025 年 10 月 11 日 策略类●证券研究报告 十月慢牛趋势不变，风格难改 定期报告 投资要点 分析师 邓利军 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910523080001 denglijun@huajinsc.cn 报告联系人 张欣诺 zhangxinnuo@huajinsc.cn 相关报告 节后资金表现或有望略趋活跃，但震荡分化 与局部活跃并行或暂时未改-华金证券新股 周报 2025.10.7 节 后 慢 牛 延 续 ， 科 技 和 周 期 占 优 不 变 2025.10.7 华金研究 10 月金股 2025.9.29 小长假前波动略有加剧，短周期新股板块或 延 续 震 荡分 化 走 势 - 华 金 证 券新 股 周 报 2025.9.28 科技和周期行业中报盈利改善 2025.9.27 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 14 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 复盘历史，10 月 A 股表现偏震荡，主要受政策和外部事件、流动性、基本面等因 素影响。（1）10 月 A 股市场表现偏震荡：2010 年以来的 15 年中有 8 次上证综指 10 月上涨。（2）政策和外部事件、流动性、基本面等 ...

Core Viewpoints - The adjustment phase in A-shares is not expected to lead to a major downward risk in the medium term, with a high probability of a "red October" following the current adjustments, as long-term policy layouts are approaching and technological catalysts continue to persist [3][5][6] - The economic outlook for the second half of 2025 remains uncertain, but it is not expected to affect the anticipated upward turning point in supply-demand dynamics in 2026 [3][5][6] - The narrative of a bull market is still valid, with the current phase characterized by increased allocation of equity by residents and improvements in cyclical fundamentals [3][5] Short-term Market Outlook - October is seen as a critical policy layout window, which may stabilize and elevate market expectations after the current adjustments [6][7] - The cyclical catalysts are expected to be limited in the fourth quarter of 2025, while technological industry catalysts are on an upward trend, particularly in AI, both domestically and internationally [6][7] - The ongoing adjustments are likely to improve short-term cost-effectiveness indicators, setting the stage for the "red October" market to unfold [6][7] Medium-term Market Outlook - Before spring 2026, technological industry catalysts are expected to dominate over cyclical catalysts, although there may be short-term cost-effectiveness issues in tech growth [7][8] - Spring 2026 may present challenges for the A-share market, including verification of demand-side dynamics and potential delays in the supply-demand turning point if demand remains weak [7][8] - The long-term cost-effectiveness of the tech industry may reach low levels, similar to previous market conditions in late 2013 and late 2019, potentially leading to a mid-term consolidation phase [7][8] Structural Outlook - The trend in tech growth is expected to remain dominant, with better performance in high-low switches within tech sectors compared to switches between growth and value [8][9] - New catalysts in emerging sectors are anticipated to have high elasticity, with significant growth potential in sectors like overseas computing power, innovative pharmaceuticals, energy storage, solid-state batteries, and advanced manufacturing technologies [8][9] - The structural transition from a structural bull market to a comprehensive bull market is critical, with a focus on industries like photovoltaics and chemicals [8][9] Hong Kong Market Outlook - The medium-term outlook for the Hong Kong market remains positive, benefiting from the anticipated interest rate cuts and the strengthening of new economic trends [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Gold, Silver, Carbonate Lithium, Soybean Oil (medium to long - term), Rapeseed Oil [1] - **Bearish**: Asphalt, PTA, Pure Benzene, Styrene, Caustic Soda, LPG [1] - **Sideways**: Macro - finance (including stocks and bonds), Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Polysilicon, Ribbed Bar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicide, Ferrosilicon, Plate, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Palm Oil, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Logs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, BR Rubber, Urea, PP, PVC, Container Shipping to Europe [1] 2. Core Views - The stock index is bullish in the long - term, but the probability of a unilateral upward pattern in the market before the National Day holiday is low, and it is recommended to control positions. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward trend [1]. - Gold and silver prices may be strong in the short - term, but attention should be paid to the increased volatility risk before the National Day holiday [1]. - Copper and aluminum prices are under pressure in the short - term, but are expected to stabilize or have limited downside space due to overseas easing cycles and the arrival of the consumption season [1]. - The supply and demand situation of various industrial and agricultural products is complex, with different price trends affected by factors such as production, inventory, policy, and market sentiment [1]. 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - Stocks: Long - term bullish, low probability of unilateral rise before the National Day holiday, recommend controlling positions [1]. - Bonds: Favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term interest rate risk warning from the central bank suppresses the upward trend [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Gold and Silver: Short - term bullish, but need to be cautious about pre - holiday volatility [1]. - Copper: Pressured in the short - term, but expected to stabilize with overseas easing and domestic demand improvement [1]. - Aluminum: Pressured in the short - term, but limited downside space due to the arrival of the consumption season [1]. - Alumina: Fundamentals are weak, but limited downside space as the price approaches the cost line [1]. - Zinc: Social inventory accumulation pressures the price, and attention should be paid to policy changes [1]. - Nickel: Short - term sideways to slightly bullish, with continuous attention to supply and macro changes [1]. - Stainless Steel: Short - term sideways to slightly bullish, with attention to actual production of steel mills [1]. - Tin: There is an expectation of demand improvement in the peak season, and low - long opportunities can be focused on [1]. - Polysilicon: Supply is recovering, with production reduction expectations and market sentiment influenced by rumors [1]. - Carbonate Lithium: Bullish due to the approaching peak season of new energy vehicles and strong energy storage demand [1]. Ferrous Metals - Ribbed Bar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore: Valuation returns to neutral, industrial driving force is unclear, and macro - driving force is positive [1]. - Manganese Silicide and Ferrosilicon: Short - term fundamentals are not optimistic, with supply recovery, possible demand weakening, and high inventory [1]. - Plate and Soda Ash: Supply surplus pressure exists, and prices are under pressure despite marginal improvement in peak - season demand [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: After a sharp correction, there is strong bottom support, but the upward space is not open, and the pre - holiday market may be sideways [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Short - term sideways adjustment, consider going long at the lower end of the sideways range [1]. - Soybean Oil: Bullish in the medium to long - term, with attention to the impact of Sino - US negotiations on the market [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: There is a de - stocking trend, and it is recommended to go long and conduct positive spreads between months [1]. - Cotton: Short - term wide - range sideways, and the market may face pressure with the listing of new cotton in the long - term [1]. - Raw Sugar: Starting to rebound, but limited upward space due to supply surplus, and it is recommended to short at high prices [1]. - Corn: Bearish in the short - term due to increased supply and price pressure from deep - processing enterprises [1]. - Soybean Meal: Sideways, with weak short - term market sentiment, and it is recommended to observe carefully [1]. - Pulp: The bottom range is initially showing, but there is no bullish driving force yet, and attention should be paid to the cancellation volume of warehouse receipts after September delivery [1]. - Logs: Fundamentals have no obvious changes, with falling foreign quotes and firm spot prices, and the futures are sideways [1]. - Live Pigs: Bearish as the supply continues to increase and downstream demand is limited [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil and Fuel Oil: Sideways, affected by factors such as US inventory, OPEC+ production increase, and Fed interest rate cuts [1]. - Asphalt: Bearish, with the falsification of demand expectations and sufficient supply of raw materials [1]. - Shanghai Rubber: Bullish in the short - term due to typhoon influence and reduced inventory [1]. - BR Rubber: Sideways, with attention to the capital side due to factors such as supply and demand and changes in warehouse receipts [1]. - PTA: Bearish, affected by factors such as production recovery, falling oil prices, and PX device maintenance delays [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Sideways, with a complex situation of supply and demand and the impact of new device production [1]. - Short - fiber: Sideways, affected by factors such as device recovery and changes in market delivery willingness [1]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene: Bearish, with increasing supply and import pressure [1]. - Urea: Sideways, with limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand and support from anti -内卷 and cost [1]. - PP: Sideways, with weakening support from maintenance and less - than - expected downstream improvement [1]. - PVC: Sideways, with increased supply pressure and more near - month warehouse receipts [1]. - Caustic Soda: Bearish, with unfulfilled peak - season expectations and inventory accumulation [1]. - LPG: Bearish, affected by OPEC production increase, high domestic oil inventory, and weak chemical demand [1]. Others - Container Shipping to Europe: Sideways, with the possibility of a low - level rebound and expected to stop falling and stabilize [1].

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu province is advancing the reform of the industrial worker team, which is crucial for high-quality development and aims to create a new type of labor force that matches new productivity standards [1][3]. Group 1: Industrial Worker Reform - The reform has transitioned from pilot exploration to comprehensive implementation, with over 10,000 enterprises involved and covering 7.32 million industrial workers, resulting in an increase of 651,000 high-skilled talents [3]. - Jiangsu has introduced over 60 reform policies and aims to cultivate around 200 national craftsmen, 1,000 provincial craftsmen, and 5,000 municipal craftsmen by 2035 [5]. - The province has established a dual certification system for digital technology talents, allowing 30 individuals to receive government subsidies and direct title recognition [6]. Group 2: Innovation and Technology - The "无人值守智能料斗系统" (unmanned intelligent hopper system) developed by a local team has automated bulk cargo loading at ports, significantly reducing labor costs [2]. - Jiangsu's labor unions are promoting innovation by integrating it into local and enterprise R&D systems, linking innovation outcomes to promotions and salary incentives [8]. - The province has 10,000 innovation studios, with 1.2 million participants engaging in over 5,200 activities to solve technical issues and enhance skill levels [8]. Group 3: Economic and Political Status of Workers - The new "八级工" (eight-level worker) vocational skill grading system has been established, with 252 special technicians and 26 chief technicians recognized as of August this year [9]. - Jiangsu has seen an increase in the political representation of industrial workers, with more workers becoming party members and participating in decision-making processes [9][10]. - The province is focusing on five major actions to deepen the reform and build a first-class technical workforce, enhancing the overall status of industrial workers [10].

Group 1 - The 2025 China Manufacturing Enterprises Top 500 list was released, with China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, China Baowu Steel Group, and Hengli Group ranking in the top three [1] - The threshold for entering the Top 500 increased from 11.09 billion to 17.36 billion, a rise of 6.27 billion [1] - Total operating revenue of the Top 500 increased from 40.24 trillion to 51.68 trillion, an increase of 11.44 trillion [1] - Total assets grew from 44.33 trillion to 53.31 trillion, an increase of 8.98 trillion [1] Group 2 - The overall R&D intensity of the Top 500 increased from 2.30% to 2.45%, a rise of 0.15 percentage points [1] - The number of patents and invention patents grew by 47.14% and 59.96%, respectively [1] - The proportion of overseas income for the Top 500 increased to 19.10%, up by 0.87 percentage points from the previous year [1] Group 3 - Henan province had 22 enterprises listed, ranking eighth in the country for the number of entries [2] - Notable companies from Henan include Luoyang Luanchuan Molybdenum Group (ranked 58), Muyuan Foods (ranked 94), and Henan Yuguang Gold & Lead Group (ranked 145) [2] - Luoyang Luanchuan Molybdenum Group was also among the top 10 for overseas income proportion in the 2025 list [2]

Group 1 - A new company, Huai'an Liyou Packaging Materials Co., Ltd., has been established with a registered capital of 500,000 RMB [1] - The legal representative of the company is Zhang Xuli [1] - The business scope includes sales of various products such as packaging materials, daily necessities, special labor protection products, stationery, and chemical products [1] Group 2 - The company is also involved in the sales of food detergents, rubber products, daily ceramic products, building materials, and metal materials [1] - It offers retail of computer software and hardware, fire-fighting equipment, and environmental protection specialized equipment [1] - The company engages in wholesale of kitchenware, clothing, and textiles, as well as manufacturing of paper products and molds [1]

Core Insights - Hainan Ying'anxing Energy Co., Ltd. has been established with a registered capital of 8.68 million RMB [1] - The company is involved in various business activities including import and export of goods and technology, as well as sales and manufacturing of non-ferrous metal alloys [1] Business Scope - The company’s licensed business activities include import and export of goods, technology, and agency services [1] - General business activities encompass sales of non-ferrous metal alloys, high-performance non-ferrous metals, and related manufacturing processes [1] - Additional services offered include new material technology research and development, energy storage technology services, and various consulting services [1]

Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index continued to decline, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread has narrowed [1][13] - Both nominal and real yields on 10-year US Treasuries have decreased, indicating a slight decline in inflation expectations [1][13] - Offshore dollar liquidity has become more accommodative, while the domestic interbank funding situation has remained balanced, initially tightening and then loosening [1][20] Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has continued to decline, with major index volatility also decreasing [2][27] - Trading activity in sectors such as consumer services, retail, chemicals, electric power, light industry, and real estate remains above the 80th percentile [2][27] - Most industry volatility remains below the 80th percentile, with notable increases in volatility for sectors like real estate, electronics, and transportation [2][33][37] Institutional Research - Research interest is highest in sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, communications, non-ferrous metals, and computers, with a rising interest in machinery, chemicals, food and beverage, light industry, and electric power [3][45] Analyst Forecasts - Analysts have continued to lower net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025/2026 [4][52] - Net profit forecasts for sectors including real estate, building materials, electric power and utilities, and banking have been raised for 2025/2026 [4][52] - The net profit forecasts for the ChiNext Index have been lowered, while those for the CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 300 have been adjusted up or down [4][52] Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has decreased, continuing a trend of net selling [5][31] - In the top 10 active stocks, the buy-sell ratio for sectors like electronics, communications, and electric power has increased, while it has decreased in finance, food and beverage, and automotive sectors [5][32] - Northbound trading has shown net buying in sectors such as electronics, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and construction, while net selling has occurred in computers, communications, and chemicals [5][33] Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has rapidly increased, reaching the highest point since "924" [6][35] - The main net buying in margin financing has been in sectors like electronics, electric power, and non-ferrous metals, with significant increases in financing buy-in ratios for coal, home appliances, and consumer services [6][38] - Margin financing has shown net buying across various styles of stocks, including large, mid, and small-cap growth and value stocks [6][39] Active Equity Fund Positions - Active equity funds have seen a decrease in positions, while ETFs have continued to experience net subscriptions [7][45] - Active equity funds have primarily increased positions in sectors such as communications, computers, and real estate, while reducing positions in pharmaceuticals, media, and machinery [7][46] - The correlation between active equity funds and mid-cap growth/value has increased, indicating a shift in investment strategy [7][48]

机构专用席位买入额排名：生益电子(7693.41万元)、达梦数据(7664.07万元)、胜宏科技(7613.39万元)、 炬光科技(6740.5万元)、华图山鼎(6262万元)、杰普特(4373.4万元)、财达证券(2628.88万元)、正邦科技 (2205.41万元)、方正科技(1998.82万元)、东华能源(1696.25万元)、晶合集成(1520.86万元)、城发环境 (1504万元)、德福科技(1485.8万元)、立讯精密(1185.98万元)、西域旅游(1083万元)、通鼎互联(906.81万 元)、宁德时代(786.5万元)、奥精医疗(765.3万元)、恒通股份(702.66万元)、康泰医学(631.24万元)、若羽 臣(614.3万元)、永茂泰(580.05万元)、中洲特材(398.64万元)、恒玄科技(341.49万元)、北京君正(296.48 万元)、雪龙集团(261.54万元)、先导智能(237.83万元)、拉卡拉(209.4万元)、江苏雷利(206.01万元)、瑞 松科技(204万元)、江南奕帆(200.29万元)。 今日(9月12日)A股共91只个股发生大宗交易，总成交68.89亿元， ...

下一步，市工信局持续健全全生命周期科技创新平台培育体系，积极发挥各类科创平台在技术研发、成果转化、产学研合作等方面的示范引领和带动作 用，加快推进科技创新与产业创新深度融合，赋能产业转型升级。 近年来，临沂市工信局坚持把企业研发平台建设作为集聚产业创新资源、提升企业研发能力、加速科技成果转化的重要抓手，鼓励企业组建研发机构、攻 坚关键核心技术。截至目前，全市已累计培育省级"一企一技术"研发平台243家，数量居全省前列。 近日，省工信厅公布2025年山东省"一企一技术"研发中心名单，临沂市翔宇药业股份有限公司、山东隆科特酶制剂有限公司等12家企业成功入选。 2025年山东省"一企一技术"研发中心入选企业名单 | | | 14 | 1. 海滨砂矿中钛矿高效智能筛选分离提纯 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 | 临港区 | 份有限公司 | 关键技术 山东域潇皓钛矿业股 3. 错钛矿高效浮选回收工艺技术 | | | | | 2. 错钛矿智能环保精选加工集成技术 | | | | | 4. 赤铁矿 蚀变的钛铁矿选矿工艺 | | | | | 5. 细粒级海滨砂矿 高价值矿物分选技术 | | | ...