原糖延续跌势， 郑糖维持弱震荡 白糖周报 2025/10/25 13352843071 yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 杨泽元（农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 03 国内市场情况 ◆ 市场回顾：外盘方面，本周原糖价格延续下跌，截至周五ICE原糖3月合约收盘价报14.97美分/磅，较之前一周下跌0.56美分/磅，跌幅3.61%； 价差方面，原糖3-5月差震荡，报0.48美分/磅，较之前一周下跌0.02美分/磅；伦敦白糖3-5月差走强，报4.8美元/吨，较之前一周上涨2.7 美元/吨；3月合约原白价差震荡，报95美元/吨，较之前一周上涨1美元/吨。国内方面，本周郑糖价格震荡，截至周五郑糖1月合约收盘价报 5446元/吨，较之前一周上涨34元/吨，涨幅0.63%。广西现货报5690元/吨，较之前一周下跌30元/吨；基差走弱，报244元/吨，之前一周下 跌64元/吨；1-5价差震荡，报48元/吨，较之前一周上涨13元/吨；配额外现货进口利润增加，报726元/吨，较之前一周上周89元/吨。 ◆ 行业消息：据咨询公司Data ...

Core Insights - The Brazilian sugar-cane industry is facing significant challenges due to increased competition from corn-based ethanol, leading to a shift in production focus towards sugar even amid low prices [1][9] - Sugar futures have declined by approximately 22% this year, marking the largest annual loss since 2017, with global production expected to exceed consumption by 2.8 million metric tons [3][9] - Brazilian cane millers are projected to produce a record 43 million metric tons of sugar in the upcoming harvest, a 4.6% increase from the previous year, despite the unfavorable market conditions [3][9] Industry Dynamics - The rise of corn ethanol production in Brazil is causing sugar-cane processors to divert more of their crop towards sugar production, as corn-based ethanol is cheaper to produce [5][9] - The share of corn-based ethanol in Brazil's gasoline substitute production is expected to rise from 23% to 32% in the upcoming season, further intensifying competition for sugar-cane processors [5][9] - Analysts indicate that the outlook for record ethanol supplies may lead to lower prices, making sugar production a more favorable option for millers, particularly in São Paulo [6][9] Company Performance - Shares of Raizen, Brazil's largest sugar-cane processor, have decreased by 56% this year, while smaller competitors Jalles Machado SA and Sao Martinho have seen declines of 42% and 37%, respectively [6][9] - Sugar-cane processors have expanded their sugar-making capacity in recent years to capitalize on previous surges in sugar prices, but are now facing a challenging market environment [7][9] - Economists suggest that Brazilian cane millers will have no choice but to increase sugar production in response to the current market dynamics [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs indicates that domestic sugar prices are expected to remain stable but weak, while international sugar prices are anticipated to fluctuate weakly [1] Domestic Market Summary - The 2025/26 sugar production season has commenced, with new domestic sugar gradually entering the market - A significant amount of imported sugar is also arriving in the domestic market, leading to supply pressure - Overall, domestic sugar prices are projected to trend weakly due to these supply dynamics [1] International Market Summary - Brazil is currently experiencing a peak in sugar supply, with other major producers like India and Thailand expected to increase production - Multiple institutions forecast a loosening supply-demand balance in the global sugar market for the 2025/26 season - Although macroeconomic factors may cause short-term price fluctuations, the fundamental supply abundance is expected to dominate the market, leading to weak fluctuations in international sugar prices [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose slightly with a weekly increase of about 0.63%. The estimated surplus of global sugar in the new season has been mostly revised upwards. The sugar production in Thailand and India has recovered, which has a key impact on the supply side. India will resume sugar exports in the 2025/26 season, with a preliminary market expectation of 2 million tons. In the domestic market, 26 sugar mills in Mongolia and Xinjiang have all started production in the 2025/26 season, with a total expected output of about 1.4 million tons. In the short term, the supply of northern beet sugar will gradually increase. In September 2025, China's sugar imports were 550,000 tons, a decrease of about 280,000 tons from the previous month and an increase of 35.8% year-on-year. From January to September 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 3.16 million tons, an increase of 270,000 tons or 9.4% year-on-year. The progress of imported sugar significantly accelerated in the third quarter. According to the forecast of the Market Early - Warning Expert Committee of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, China's total imports this year will exceed 5 million tons. Coupled with the opening of the window for out - of - quota imported sugar, the pressure of future import volume is still obvious. The downstream demand is in a seasonal decline, and it is expected that the demand for refined sugar and beverages will decrease in the future. However, the cost support for the futures price is gradually emerging, and the price is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract in the short term [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose slightly with a weekly increase of about 0.63% [5] - **Market Outlook**: The estimated surplus of global sugar in the new season has been mostly revised upwards. India will resume sugar exports in the 2025/26 season, with an expected 2 million tons. In the domestic market, 26 sugar mills in Mongolia and Xinjiang have started production, with an expected output of 1.4 million tons. In September 2025, China's sugar imports were 550,000 tons, a decrease of 280,000 tons from the previous month and an increase of 35.8% year - on - year. From January to September 2025, cumulative imports were 3.16 million tons, an increase of 9.4% year - on - year. The annual import volume is expected to exceed 5 million tons. Downstream demand is in a seasonal decline, but the cost support for the futures price is emerging, and the price is expected to fluctuate [5] - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract in the short term [5] - **Future Focus**: Domestic production and sales, and new - season output forecast [6] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Sugar Market**: The price of the US Sugar March contract fell this week, with a weekly decline of about 1.87% [10] - **International Raw Sugar Spot Price**: This week, the international raw sugar spot price was 15.88 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.53 cents per pound from last week [17] - **Zhengzhou Sugar Futures**: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose slightly this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.63%. The net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou sugar futures was - 78,827 lots, and the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts was 8,185. The price difference between the 1 - 5 contracts of Zhengzhou sugar futures was + 48 yuan/ton, and the spot - Zhengzhou sugar basis was + 304 yuan/ton [19][26][30] - **Spot Market**: As of October 24, the price of sugar in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5,780 yuan/ton, in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,750 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,730 yuan/ton. The estimated in - quota profit of Brazilian sugar was 1,624 yuan/ton, an increase of 134 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated out - of - quota profit was 251 yuan/ton, an increase of 152 yuan/ton from last week. The estimated in - quota profit of Thai sugar was 1,310 yuan/ton, an increase of 65 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated out - of - quota profit was 177 yuan/ton, an increase of 105 yuan/ton from last week [36][42] 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side - Production Increase**: As of the end of September 2025, the national sugar production in the 2024/25 sugar - making season was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03% year - on - year. As of August 2025, the domestic sugar industrial inventory was 1.1623 million tons, a decrease of 27.91% from the previous month and an increase of 5.45% year - on - year. In September 2025, China's sugar imports were 550,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 27.78% and a month - on - month decrease of 280,000 tons. From January to September 2025, cumulative imports were 3.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.89% [45][48][52] - **Demand Side - General Sales Rate**: As of the end of September 2025, the 2024/25 sugar - making season ended. The national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 12.03% year - on - year. In September 2025, China's monthly refined sugar production was 539,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.4%, and the monthly soft drink production was 15.9167 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9% [57][61] 3.4 Options and Stock - Futures Related Market - **Options Market**: The implied volatility of at - the - money options for sugar this week is presented in the chart [62] - **Stock Market - Nanning Sugar Industry**: The price - to - earnings ratio chart of Nanning Sugar Industry is presented [66]

Core Insights - The introduction of sugar futures and options has strengthened the connection between sugarcane farmers, sugar factories, and food enterprises, helping to resolve many challenges in the industry chain [1] - The sugar futures market has evolved since its launch in 2006, playing a crucial role in risk management for the sugar industry [2] - Guangxi, as the largest sugarcane production area in China, has seen significant advancements in its sugar industry due to the application of futures and options tools [3] Group 1: Industry Developments - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) is implementing several innovative measures in 2024 to enhance services for the sugar industry, including optimizing delivery processes and introducing new trading models [2] - The "insurance + futures" projects have been successfully implemented in sugar-producing areas, stabilizing sugarcane planting areas and ensuring farmers' income [2] - The collaboration between ZCE and Guangxi Pan Sugar Technology Co., Ltd. has led to the establishment of a trading cluster for sugar futures and spot market integration, enhancing industry resilience [3] Group 2: Risk Management Innovations - The sugar market is experiencing increased price volatility and a more diverse range of industry participants, necessitating improved risk management capabilities [4] - Financial service institutions are focusing on market risk prevention and mitigation, utilizing tools like basis trading and over-the-counter derivatives to provide customized risk management services [4] - The evolution of sugar spot trading from fixed pricing to basis trading and the gradual adoption of rights-based trading models are enhancing price risk management and optimizing revenue for commodity enterprises [5] Group 3: Case Studies and Future Outlook - A case study highlighted the successful implementation of a structured cumulative sales option trading model for a large sugar production enterprise in Guangxi, allowing for profit locking and effective risk management [6] - Guangxi is developing a "two cores, one pole, two areas" growth framework for the sugar industry, indicating a promising future for the integration of futures elements in the region's sugar sector [6]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The price of raw sugar lacks the momentum to rebound due to the overall suppression of increased production, although the market's concerns have eased as the decline in the sugar - making ratio is relatively large. The domestic spot price continues to decline, with average trading volume, and the downstream demand is in a seasonal downturn. It is expected that the sugar sales progress will slow down later. However, the cost support for the futures price is gradually emerging, and the price is expected to fluctuate mainly [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar is 5457 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 31; the main contract position is 420,072 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 2776. The number of warehouse receipts is 8196, with a month - on - month decrease of 117; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 72,687 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 1619. The total forecast of effective warehouse receipts is 0, with no month - on - month change [2]. Spot Market - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4166 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 29; that of Thai sugar is 4223 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 29. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5282 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 37; that of Thai sugar is 5356 yuan/ton. The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5730 yuan/ton, with no change; in Nanning, it is 5750 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 20; in Liuzhou, it is 5800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 10 [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1480 thousand hectares, with an increase of 60 thousand hectares. The planting area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, with a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 1116.21 million tons, with an increase of 5.49 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 811.38 million tons, with an increase of 86.92 million tons. The national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, with an increase of 7.47 percentage points. The monthly import volume of sugar is 550,000 tons, with a decrease of 280,000 tons. The total monthly sugar exports from Brazil are 324.58 million tons, with a decrease of 49.82 million tons. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1367 yuan/ton, with an increase of 4; outside the quota (50% tariff), it is 251 yuan/ton, with an increase of 12. The price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1310 yuan/ton, with an increase of 4; outside the quota (50% tariff), it is 177 yuan/ton, with an increase of 12 [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 45.41 million tons, with an increase of 4.41 million tons; the monthly output of soft drinks is 1775.8 million tons, with a decrease of 20.8 million tons [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 9.82%, with an increase of 1.97 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is also 9.82%, with an increase of 1.97 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 8.15%, with an increase of 0.01 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.17%, with a decrease of 0.01 percentage points [2]. Industry News - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in September 2025, China's refined sugar output was 539,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.4%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative output of refined sugar was 1.0984 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.8%. The ICE raw sugar futures closed lower on Wednesday, hitting the lowest level since June. The market expects the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2026/27 season to increase. The most actively traded March raw sugar futures on ICE fell 0.14 cents, or 0.90%, to settle at 15.10 cents per pound. According to the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association Unica, in the second half of September 2025, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 40.86 million tons of sugarcane, a year - on - year increase of 5.18%; the sugar production was 3.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.76%, and the sugar - making ratio was 51.17%, higher than 47.73% in the same period of the previous year [2].

Core Viewpoint - The sugar market is experiencing a shift with increased production forecasts from both Brazil and Thailand, leading to a potential oversupply in the global sugar market for the 2025/26 season [1][2]. Group 1: Market Data - As of October 22, the number of white sugar futures warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange is 8,313, a decrease of 63 from the previous trading day [1]. - The profit from producing white sugar using imported Brazilian raw sugar is approximately 1,865 CNY/ton (within tariff quota, 15% tariff) or 755 CNY/ton (outside tariff quota, 50% tariff) [1]. - The profit from producing white sugar using imported Thai raw sugar is about 1,780 CNY/ton (within tariff quota, 15% tariff) or 643 CNY/ton (outside tariff quota, 50% tariff) [1]. - Datagro forecasts Brazil's sugar production for the next season (April 2026 to March 2027) to be 43.2 million tons, up from the current season's estimate of 41.42 million tons [1]. - The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus of 1.98 million tons in the 2025/26 season, contrasting with a shortage of 5 million tons in the previous year [1]. Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - According to Everbright Futures, there are no rebound drivers for raw sugar in the near term, with production in the southern hemisphere largely determined and strong expectations for increased production in the northern hemisphere [2]. - The domestic spot market continues to clear inventory, with favorable rainfall in Guangxi leading to good cane growth, although autumn rainfall has resulted in lower sugar content in cane [2]. - The price of sugar is expected to remain weak, testing the support level of 5,400 CNY [2]. - Huawen Futures notes that the increase in domestic new sugar production, combined with external pressures, is likely to keep sugar prices on a weak trend, with attention on potential damage to new season cane in Guangxi and Yunnan [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - In the fourth quarter, the production in the central - southern region of Brazil enters the seasonal production - reduction cycle, significantly reducing the global supply pressure. After the sharp decline of raw sugar, its valuation is moderately low, and the production cost in Brazil is around 15 - 16 cents. Although India and Thailand have strong production - increase expectations, their large - scale crushing will start around December, and the previous sharp decline of raw sugar has more or less reflected this expectation. The raw sugar price is significantly lower than the production costs of these two countries. [23] - Domestically, the expected production will increase slightly, large - scale crushing will start around mid - December, and the import volume in the fourth quarter may decline month - on - month. Overall, the supply pressure is not large. After the futures price drops to a relatively low level, it is significantly lower than the production cost, with strong support below, and the futures may have a phased rebound. [25] Section Summaries Brazil Enters Seasonal Production - Reduction Cycle - Brazil is one of the world's largest sugar producers and the largest sugar exporter. In the 2024/25 crushing season, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 4017 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 226 tons, and the sugar - making ratio was 48.14%. Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 crushing season sugar production in Brazil, with the focus on the impact of weather, sugar mill production strategies, and ethanol substitution effects. [2] - Starting from October, Brazil's sugar production enters the seasonal production - reduction cycle, greatly reducing the global supply pressure. The latest bi - weekly production data released by UNICA is slightly higher than market expectations. In the second half of September, 4085.5 tons of sugarcane were crushed in the central - southern region of Brazil, a year - on - year increase of 5.18%; sugar production was 313.7 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.76%. The cumulative sugar production was 3352.4 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.84%. [4][5] India and Thailand Expected to Increase Production but Not Yet Started Crushing - **India**: India's sugar production increase expectation is strong. In the 2024/25 crushing season, India's sugar production was about 2590 tons, far lower than expected. ISMA expects the sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season to be 3490 tons. Considering the 400 - ton ethanol diversion, the actual sugar production will be around 3100 tons, an increase of about 500 tons compared to the previous year. Large - scale crushing will start around late December, and the production cost is around 18 - 19 cents per pound. [7][8] - **Thailand**: Thailand is a major global sugar - producing country and the second - largest sugar exporter. In the 2024/25 crushing season, Thailand's sugar production was 1014 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.2%, ending the two - year consecutive decline. Different institutions predict that Thailand's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season will increase by 5% - 14%. [11] Domestic Supply and Demand Situation - **New - year domestic sugar production**: In the 2024/25 sugar - making period, domestic sugar production was 1116 tons, a year - on - year increase of 120 tons. Different institutions predict that the sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season will be between 1120 and 1160 tons. Currently, Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang in the north have started production, with the estimated production at 70 - 75 tons. Large - scale crushing in the south will start in December, and the short - term domestic supply pressure is not large. [14] - **Fourth - quarter sugar imports decline month - on - month**: China's imported sugar is divided into in - quota and out - of - quota. In September 2025, China imported 55 tons of sugar, about 28 tons less than in August, a year - on - year increase of 35.8%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative imported sugar was 316 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.4%. Under the principle of annual total control and considering the decline in shipments from Brazil in September, the arrival volume of domestic sugar in the fourth quarter will decline month - on - month, which is conducive to reducing domestic supply pressure. [16] - **Syrup imports are controlled and the import volume drops significantly**: Since December 2024, the import declaration of Thai syrup and premixed powder has been suspended, and in March 2025, the import declaration of some sugar products (syrup and premixed powder) from Vietnam has also been suspended. In September 2025, the total import of syrup and white sugar premixed powder was 15.14 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.52 tons. From January to September 2025, the total import was 88.52 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 85.24 tons. [22]

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： 白糖日报 2025 年 10 月 22 日 白糖日报 第一部分 数据分析 liuqiannan_qh@china stock.com.cn | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减量 | 持仓量 | 增减量 | | SR09 | | 5,401 | -9 | -0.17% | 1,514 | 969 | 7,161 | 266 | | SR01 | | 5,426 | -12 | -0.22% | 211,578 | 84079 | 417,296 | -4406 | | SR05 | | 5,383 | -13 | -0.24% | 25,895 | 15290 | 87,758 | 5008 | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | | 白糖 | | 柳州 | 昆明 | 武汉 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The report focuses on the sugar market, highlighting the need to monitor changes in India's sugar and ethanol shares. It presents data on sugar fundamentals, macro and industry news, and market trends in both domestic and international markets [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data - The raw sugar price is 15.24 cents per pound, down 0.53 from the previous period. The mainstream spot price is 5750 yuan per ton, unchanged. The futures主力 price is 5438 yuan per ton, up 10. The 15 - spread is 42 yuan per ton, up 3, and the 59 - spread is - 14 yuan per ton, unchanged. The mainstream spot basis is 312 yuan per ton, down 10 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Brazil's sugar production in the second half of September increased by 11% year - on - year, but its exports decreased, raising concerns about global consumption. Brazil exported 325 million tons in September, a 16% year - on - year decrease; 374 million tons in August, a 5% year - on - year decrease; and 359 million tons in July, a 5% year - on - year decrease. Conab lowered Brazil's production forecast for the 25/26 season to 4.45 billion tons from 4.59 billion tons. China imported 55 million tons of sugar in September, an increase of 15 million tons [1]. 3.3 Domestic Market - CAOC expects China's sugar production to be 1.116 billion tons in the 24/25 season, with consumption of 1.58 billion tons and imports of 500 million tons. For the 25/26 season, production is expected to be 1.12 billion tons, consumption 1.59 billion tons, and imports 500 million tons. As of the end of May in the 24/25 season, China produced 1.116 billion tons of sugar, an increase of 120 million tons, and sold 811 million tons, an increase of 152 million tons, with a cumulative sales rate of 72.7%. As of the end of September in the 24/25 season, China imported 463 million tons of sugar, a decrease of 12 million tons. In the 25/26 season, the market expects a decline in the sugar yield and an increase in production costs in Guangxi [2]. 3.4 International Market - ISO forecasts a global sugar supply shortage of 23 million tons in the 25/26 season and 488 million tons in the 24/25 season. As of October 1 in the 25/26 season, the cumulative cane crushing volume in Brazil's central - southern region decreased by 2.99 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 3.352 billion tons, an increase of 28 million tons, and a cumulative MIX of 52.68%, up 3.84 percentage points. ISMA/NFCSF predicts India's total sugar production to be 3.49 billion tons in the 25/26 season, up from 2.95 billion tons in the 24/25 season. Thailand's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 1.008 billion tons, an increase of 127 million tons [3]. 3.5 Trend Intensity The sugar trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].