Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the silicon-manganese market is currently experiencing bottom - level oscillations supported by costs, with weak supply - demand dynamics and high inventory. The manganese silicon主力2603 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 5550 - 5900. The overall production will remain stable, while the demand for crude steel will continue to decline, and the alloy is likely to remain in a loss - making state [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Macro Aspect**: In 2026, the national new - built commercial housing sales area is expected to decline by 6.2% year - on - year, the new - start area to decline by 8.6%, and real estate investment to decline by 11%. The core policy directions for major coal - producing areas include stable production and supply, capacity continuation, and enhanced clean and efficient coal utilization [7]. - **Overseas Aspect**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points during the December 9 - 10 meeting, setting the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%–3.75%. Most global investment banks predict a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut in 2026, mainly in the first half of the year [7]. - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: Inventory has rebounded rapidly, production has slightly declined from a high level, and inventory has increased for 11 consecutive weeks. The port inventory of imported manganese ore has increased by 13000 tons, and the demand for hot metal has seasonally declined. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 320 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 420 yuan/ton. HeSteel Group's first - round inquiry price for silicon - manganese in December is 5700 yuan/ton [7]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the manganese - silicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: In December, the production in southern regions may further decline, while northern regions remain relatively stable. Inner Mongolia has new production capacity and production conversion, and overall production will be stable. Ningxia may have maintenance in December due to cost and hedging pressure, but the reduction in production is expected to be small. The national crude - steel production reduction policy will continue in 2025, and the alloy is likely to remain in a loss - making state [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of December 12, the silicon - manganese futures contract open interest was 617000 lots, a decrease of 15700 lots from the previous period. The 5 - 1 contract spread was 54, an increase of 4 points. The manganese - silicon warehouse receipts increased by 4025 to 25232, and the spread between manganese - silicon and silicon - iron active contracts decreased by 24 points to 260 [13][17]. - **Spot Market**: As of December 12, the silicon - manganese spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous period. The basis was - 238 yuan/ton, a decrease of 76 points [25]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Industry**: The national capacity utilization rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 36.85%, an increase of 0.14%. The daily average production was 27035 tons, an increase of 185 tons. The weekly demand for silicon - manganese in five major steel types decreased by 3.26% to 112787 tons, and the weekly supply increased by 0.69% to 189245 tons. The inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese enterprises increased by 5500 tons to 381000 tons [28][33]. - **Upstream**: As of December 10, the price of South African and Australian manganese ore remained unchanged. As of December 8, the electricity price in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged, while that in Ningxia increased by 2.53%. As of December 5, the total manganese - ore inventory was 4.513 million tons, an increase of 2.97%. The arrival of South African and Gabonese manganese ore increased, while that of Australian and Ghanaian manganese ore decreased. The silicon - manganese spot production cost in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia increased, and the spot profit in the northern region decreased [38][44][50]. - **Downstream**: The daily average hot - metal production of 247 steel mills was 2.292 million tons, a decrease of 31000 tons from the previous week and 32700 tons from the same period last year. HeSteel Group's first - round inquiry price for silicon - manganese in December was 5700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton from November [54].

Report Summary 1. Report Title - Black Supply Weekly Report - Ferroalloys [1] 2. Report Date and Analyst Information - Date: December 12, 2025 - Analyst: Dong Xueshan from Zhongtai Futures Research Institute - Qualification Number: F3075616, Trading Consultation Certificate Number: Z0018025 [2] 3. Key Data - Weekly Production and Changes Silicon Manganese - **National**: Weekly production is 18.92 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1295 tons, and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 15.04% [3] - **Inner Mongolia**: Weekly production is 9.69 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 140 tons, and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.40% [3] - **Ningxia**: Weekly production is 4.33 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1400 tons, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 12.43% [3] - **Guangxi**: Weekly production is 0.92 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 245 tons, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.39% [3] - **Guizhou**: Weekly production is 1.21 million tons, with no week - on - week change, and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 16.56% [3] - **Yunnan**: Weekly production is 0.68 million tons, with no week - on - week change, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.21% [3] - **Other regions**: Weekly production is 2.09 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 24.11% [3] Silicon Iron - **National**: Weekly production is 10.63 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2520 tons, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.95% [3] - **Inner Mongolia**: Weekly production is 3.61 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1925 tons, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.91% [3] - **Ningxia**: Weekly production is 2.72 million tons, with no week - on - week change, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.21% [3] - **Shaanxi**: Weekly production is 1.93 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 350 tons, and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.14% [3] - **Qinghai**: Weekly production is 1.29 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 945 tons, and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 13.49% [3] - **Gansu**: Weekly production is 0.98 million tons, with no week - on - week change, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.70% [3] - **Other regions**: Weekly production is 0.01 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2 tons, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.00% [3] 4. Data Explanation - The update date of Ganglian terminal data is every Thursday, and the data display date is Friday of the current week - Data sources: Mysteel; compiled by Zhongtai Futures [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products declined significantly. The steel prices are expected to fluctuate within the bottom range. With the approaching winter storage, attention should be paid to winter storage policies and price guidance [1][2]. - The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate widely. Recently, there have been many disturbing news, so attention should be paid to the risk of price fluctuations [5]. - The overall attitude towards the black - building materials sector and domestic policies remains relatively optimistic. Future trends of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon are mainly led by the black - building materials sector and issues such as manganese ore price and electricity price [9]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to be weak, with support at 8100 - 8300 yuan/ton [12]. - The polysilicon market is in a state of tug - of - war between reality and expectation. The price is expected to fluctuate widely within a range after the monthly spread returns [15]. - For the glass market, a bearish view is recommended in the absence of unexpected changes [18]. - The soda ash market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend in the short term, and a cautiously bearish view is maintained [20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products 1. Rebar - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3069 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton (-1.53%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 40,679 tons, with no change. The main contract's open interest increased by 87,857 lots to 1.602075 million lots. The Tianjin aggregated price was 3160 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3270 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Views**: This week, the rebar production decreased significantly and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral - to - stable performance overall. The terminal demand remains weak, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate within the bottom range. Attention should be paid to winter storage policies and price guidance [1][2]. 2. Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3238 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan/ton (-1.34%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 109,014 tons, with no change. The main contract's open interest increased by 42,440 lots to 1.148348 million lots. The Lecong aggregated price was 3260 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3250 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Views**: The production of hot - rolled coils continued to decline, apparent consumption decreased slightly, and it was more difficult to reduce inventory. The factory inventory increased this week. The terminal demand remains weak, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate within the bottom range. Attention should be paid to winter storage policies and price guidance [1][2]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the iron ore main contract (I2605) was 757.00 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.56% (-12.00). The open interest decreased by 1378 lots to 468,100 lots. The weighted open interest was 894,100 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 781 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 72.41 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 8.73% [4]. - **Strategy Views**: Overseas iron ore shipments increased slightly in the latest period. The daily average pig iron production has fallen below 2.292 million tons. The port inventory continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory was recently depleted. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the risk of price fluctuations due to many disturbing news [5]. Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon 1. Ferromanganese (Silicomanganese) - **Market Quotes**: On December 11th, the main contract of ferromanganese (SM603) rose in the morning and then weakened in the afternoon, closing down 0.21% at 5712 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the futures - equivalent price of 5890 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 178 yuan/ton over the futures price [8]. - **Strategy Views**: The supply - demand pattern of ferromanganese is still not ideal, but most of these factors have been factored into the price. Future trends are mainly influenced by the black - building materials sector and the price of manganese ore. Attention should be paid to possible sudden changes in the manganese ore market [9]. 2. Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes**: The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) rose more than 1% in the morning and then fell back, closing down 0.29% at 5418 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5560 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 142 yuan/ton over the futures price [8]. - **Strategy Views**: The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. Future trends are mainly influenced by the black - building materials sector and the electricity price. Attention should be paid to possible sudden changes in the manganese ore market [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon 1. Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract (SI2601) was 8285 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.42% (+35). The weighted contract's open interest decreased by 11,179 lots to 495,222 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygen - blown industrial silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main contract was 915 yuan/ton; the price of 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract was 565 yuan/ton after conversion [11]. - **Strategy Views**: The industrial silicon price is expected to be weak, with support at 8100 - 8300 yuan/ton. The production in Southwest China is expected to decline further in December, and overall demand is slightly weak [12]. 2. Polysilicon - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the polysilicon main contract (PS2605) was 55,765 yuan/ton, with a change of +2.13% (+1165). The weighted contract's open interest increased by 6228 lots to 265,208 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon was 50 yuan/kg, unchanged; N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged; N - type re - feed material was 52.3 yuan/kg, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract was - 3465 yuan/ton [13]. - **Strategy Views**: The polysilicon production is expected to continue to decline in December, but the decline may be limited. The inventory accumulation pressure before the Spring Festival is difficult to relieve. The price is expected to fluctuate widely within a range after the monthly spread returns [15]. Glass and Soda Ash 1. Glass - **Market Quotes**: On Thursday at 15:00, the glass main contract closed at 964 yuan/ton, down 2.03% (-20). The North China large - plate price was 1050 yuan, unchanged; the Central China price was 1110 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 58.227 million boxes, down 1.215 million boxes (-2.04%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced 11,700 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 9059 short positions [17]. - **Strategy Views**: In November, many glass production lines were shut down for maintenance. The real - estate industry still has downward pressure, and a bearish view is recommended in the absence of unexpected changes [18]. 2. Soda Ash - **Market Quotes**: On Thursday at 15:00, the soda ash main contract closed at 1094 yuan/ton, down 2.76% (-31). The heavy - soda price in Shahe was 1113 yuan, up 9 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.4943 million tons, down 44,300 tons (-2.04%), including 790,500 tons of heavy - soda inventory, down 20,300 tons, and 703,800 tons of light - soda inventory, down 24,000 tons. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 61,727 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 56,952 short positions [19]. - **Strategy Views**: The overall supply pressure of soda ash is still large, and demand is relatively flat. The spot price has limited room for further decline. The 2.8 - million - ton capacity of the Alxa Phase II project is expected to put pressure on the market. The market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend in the short term, and a cautiously bearish view is maintained [20].

Report Information - Report Date: December 12, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Ferroalloy Morning Report Price Summary Ferrosilicon (FeSi) - Spot prices for FeSi 72% in different regions: Ningxia at 5100 yuan, Inner Mongolia at 5120 yuan, Qinghai at 5150 yuan, and Shaanxi at 5080 yuan [2] - FeSi 75% in Shaanxi is priced at 5600 yuan [2] - Export prices for FeSi 72% and 75% in Tianjin are 1020 and 1070 US dollars respectively [2] - Futures prices for different contracts show various changes, with the main contract at 5418 yuan, showing a daily change of -16 yuan and a weekly change of -128 yuan [2] Silicomanganese (SiMn) - Spot prices for SiMn 6517 in different regions: Inner Mongolia at 5520 yuan, Ningxia at 5490 yuan, Guangxi at 5600 yuan, Guizhou at 5550 yuan, and Yunnan at 5550 yuan [2] - Futures prices for different contracts also have different changes, with the main contract at 5712 yuan, showing a daily change of -12 yuan and a weekly change of -84 yuan [2] Supply and Demand Supply - The monthly output of FeSi from 136 Chinese enterprises (with a 95% capacity share) shows trends from 2021 to 2025 [4] - The capacity utilization rates of 136 FeSi production enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi are presented from 2021 to 2025 [4] - The weekly output of SiMn in China from 2021 to 2025 is shown [6] Demand - The estimated monthly output of crude steel in China from 2021 to 2025 is given [4][7] - The monthly production of stainless - steel crude steel in China from 2021 to 2025 is presented [4] - The monthly procurement volume and price of FeSi FeSi75 - B by HeSteel Group from 2021 to 2025 are shown [4] - The monthly procurement volume and price of SiMn 6517 by HeSteel Group from 2021 to 2025 are presented [6] Inventory Ferrosilicon - The weekly inventory of 60 sample FeSi enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi from 2021 to 2025 is shown [5] - The daily total number of FeSi warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts on CZCE from 2021 to 2025 are presented [5] - The monthly average available days of FeSi inventory in East China, South China, and the North region from 2021 to 2025 are shown [5] Silicomanganese - The daily total number of SiMn warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts on CZCE from 2021 to 2025 are presented [7] - The weekly inventory of 63 sample SiMn enterprises in China from 2021 to 2025 is shown [7] - The monthly average available days of SiMn inventory in China from 2021 to 2025 are presented [7] Cost and Profit Ferrosilicon - The electricity prices in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Shaanxi for ferroalloys from 2021 to 2025 are shown [5] - The market price of small - sized semi - coke in Shaanxi from 2021 to 2025 is presented [5] - The production costs and profits of FeSi in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia from 2021 to 2025 are shown [5] Silicomanganese - The profits of SiMn in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the North region, and the South region from 2021 to 2025 are presented [7] - The profits of Guangxi SiMn converted to the main contract price and Ningxia SiMn converted to the contract price from 2021 to 2025 are shown [7]

黑色建材日报 2025-12-11 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3117 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 38 元/吨（1.234%）。当日注册仓单 40679 吨, 环比增加 4858 吨。主力合约持仓量为 151.4218 万手，环比减少 79529 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇 总价格为 3180 元/吨, 环比增加 20/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3280 元/吨, 环比增加 20 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力 合约收盘价为 3282 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 30 元/吨（0.922%）。 当日注册仓单 109014 吨, 环比减少 4718 吨。 ...

第一部分 市场信息 研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 12 月 10 日 铁合金日报 | | | | 期 货 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5434 | -28 | -12 | 359824 | 114711 | 270595 | -5483 | | SM主力合约 | 5724 | -8 | -22 | 183801 | -75254 | 280089 | -2262 | | | | | | 现 货 | | | | | 硅铁 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5200 | 0 | -50 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5520 | 10 | -10 | | 72%FeSi宁夏 | 5200 | 0 | 0 | 硅锰6517宁夏 | 5490 | 0 | -30 | | 72%FeSi青海 | 5250 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Silicon iron is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations due to information disturbances on the supply side [1]. - Manganese silicon is expected to have wide - range fluctuations as overseas mining companies' quotes remain firm [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data** - Silicon iron 2603: closing price 5462, up 18 from the previous trading day, trading volume 245,113, open interest 270,595 [1]. - Silicon iron 2605: closing price 5416, up 10 from the previous trading day, trading volume 21,426, open interest 66,909 [1]. - Manganese silicon 2603: closing price 5732, down 4 from the previous trading day, trading volume 259,055, open interest 282,351 [1]. - Manganese silicon 2605: closing price 5772, down 4 from the previous trading day, trading volume 84,496, open interest 163,391 [1]. - **Spot Data** - Silicon iron FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia: price 5120 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - Manganese silicon FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia: price 5510 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - Manganese ore Mn44 block: price 43.5 yuan/ton - degree [1]. - Semi - coke small material in Shenmu: price 820 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Difference Data** - Silicon iron (spot - 03 futures): basis - 342 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - Manganese silicon (spot - 03 futures): basis - 222 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - Silicon iron 2603 - 2605 spread: 46 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - Manganese silicon 2603 - 2605 spread: - 40 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1]. - Manganese silicon 2603 - silicon iron 2603 spread: 270 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - Manganese silicon 2605 - silicon iron 2605 spread: 356 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On December 9, for 72 silicon iron, prices in Shaanxi were 5050 - 5100 yuan/ton, in Ningxia 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan/ton), in Qinghai 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton, in Gansu 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton. For 75 silicon iron, prices in Shaanxi were 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton, in Ningxia 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton, in Qinghai 5600 yuan/ton, in Gansu 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton. Silicon iron FOB: 72 was 1020 - 1040 dollars/ton (down 10 dollars/ton), 75 was 1090 - 1120 dollars/ton (down 10 - 20 dollars/ton). Silicon manganese 6517 was quoted at 5500 - 5600 yuan/ton in the north and 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton in the south [2]. - United Mining (CML) announced its January 2026 quotation for China, with Mn>46% Fe<6% Si02<18% Australian lump at 5.0 dollars/ton - degree, up 0.2 dollars/ton - degree month - on - month. Comilog announced its January 2026 quotation for Gabon lump for China at 4.7 dollars/ton - degree, up 0.2 dollars/ton - degree month - on - month [2][3]. - Hegang's December silicon iron inquiry price was 5600 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from November's price, with a quantity of 2750 tons, up 34 tons from November. A large Hebei steel group's December silicon manganese procurement was 14700 tons, down 1300 tons from November, and the December inquiry price was 5700 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton from November's price [5]. - Hengyang Steel Pipe finalized the purchase price of 75B silicon iron at 5700 yuan/ton (acceptance), the same as the previous round, with a quantity of 200 tons [5]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - Silicon iron trend intensity: 0 - Manganese silicon trend intensity: 0 Note: The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2. - 2 means most bearish, 2 means most bullish [4].

Report Information - Report Date: December 10, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Ferroalloy Morning Report Core Insights - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, and related data of ferroalloys such as ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, and spreads, to provide a comprehensive view of the ferroalloy market [2]. Summary by Category 1. Price - **Ferrosilicon**: Different regions have varying spot prices, with the latest prices for 72% ferrosilicon in Ningxia at 5100, Inner Mongolia at 5120, and Qinghai at 5150. Futures prices also show differences among different contracts, and there are changes in basis and spreads [2]. - **Ferromanganese**: The latest factory - ex prices for 6517 ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and other regions are 5510, 5490, etc. Futures prices and related basis and spreads also have specific values and changes [2]. 2. Supply - **Ferrosilicon**: The production volume and capacity utilization of 136 ferrosilicon enterprises in China are presented, and there are also data on production in different regions such as Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi [4]. - **Ferromanganese**: The weekly production volume of ferromanganese in China is provided, along with procurement prices and quantities from Hebei Iron and Steel Group [6]. 3. Demand - **Ferrosilicon**: The demand is related to industries such as steelmaking and metal magnesium production. Data on the production of crude steel, stainless - steel crude steel, and metal magnesium are presented, which can reflect the demand for ferrosilicon [4]. - **Ferromanganese**: The demand for ferromanganese in China is shown, and it is also related to the steel industry, with data on crude steel production and ferromanganese procurement by Hebei Iron and Steel Group [6][7]. 4. Inventory - **Ferrosilicon**: The inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China, including inventory in different regions such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, as well as warehouse receipt data and effective forecasts, are provided [5]. - **Ferromanganese**: The inventory data of 63 sample enterprises in China, warehouse receipt data, and effective forecasts are presented, along with the inventory average available days in China [7]. 5. Cost and Profit - **Ferrosilicon**: The cost is related to electricity prices and raw material prices such as semi - coke. Profit data include production profit, export profit, and profit after converting to the main futures contract in regions like Ningxia and Inner Mongolia [5]. - **Ferromanganese**: The profit data in different regions such as Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern and southern regions are presented, along with the profit after converting to the main futures contract in Guangxi and Ningxia [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to decline. The terminal demand remains weak, and the inventory pressure of hot-rolled coils is still prominent. Steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom, but attention should be paid to the winter storage price situation. Future attention should also be focused on the statements of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, which may affect the macro environment [2]. - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate widely. The overall inventory of iron ore is high, and there is no sign of effectively resolving the structural inventory contradiction. The spot still has certain support. However, due to the expected loose supply pattern of iron ore in 2026 and the lack of imagination on the demand side, there is still pressure for the price to decline periodically within the range, and the support for the weighted contract is expected to be around 750 yuan/ton [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the future market trend will be led by the direction of the black metal sector and the issues of manganese ore for manganese silicon and electricity price increase for ferrosilicon. Particular attention should be paid to whether there are sudden situations in the manganese ore sector and their possible strong driving force on the market [9]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to run weakly, with the support level at 8100 - 8300 yuan/ton. The supply and demand of industrial silicon are both weak, and the contradiction is not prominent. The recent low performance of coking coal futures and the decline of the polysilicon futures price have affected the overall sentiment of industrial silicon [12]. - The polysilicon market shows a tug - of - war between reality and expectation, and between the upstream and downstream of the industry. The price is expected to fluctuate widely within the range. Future attention should be paid to the progress of state - owned reserve procurement and the situation of warehouse receipt registration [14]. - For glass, in the absence of unexpected changes, a bearish view on the glass market is recommended. For soda ash, the market is expected to continue the weak and volatile trend in the short term, and a cautiously bearish view is maintained [17][19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) Market Information - Rebar: The closing price of the main contract was 3079 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan/ton (-1.40%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 35,821 tons, a decrease of 10,455 tons compared to the previous day. The open interest of the main contract was 1.593747 million lots, an increase of 116,170 lots. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased by 20 yuan/ton [1]. - Hot - rolled coil: The closing price of the main contract was 3252 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton (-1.18%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 113,732 tons, unchanged from the previous day. The open interest of the main contract was 1.108414 million lots, an increase of 29,738 lots. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai decreased by 40 yuan/ton and 30 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - Rebar: The production this week has significantly declined, and the inventory continues to be depleted, showing a neutral - to - stable overall performance. - Hot - rolled coil: The production has decreased, but the apparent demand remains neutral. It is difficult to deplete the inventory, and the social inventory is still at a relatively high level. The steel demand in the housing construction sector is under pressure, and future attention should be paid to the winter storage price [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract (I2605) closed at 757.50 yuan/ton, with a change of -0.39% (-3.00). The open interest changed by +12,385 lots to 441,800 lots. The weighted open interest was 905,300 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 784 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 75.17 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 9.03% [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - Supply: The overseas iron ore shipment volume increased slightly in the latest period. The shipment from Australia increased, mainly due to the rebound of Rio Tinto and FMG's shipments. The shipment from Brazil decreased, with a significant decline in Vale's shipments. The shipment from non - mainstream countries reached a high for the year, and the near - term arrival volume decreased month - on - month. - Demand: The average daily pig iron output was 232.3 million tons, a decrease of 2.38 million tons month - on - month. The number of blast furnaces under maintenance was more than those under复产, and the annual inspections increased with relatively long durations. The profitability of steel mills rebounded slightly after continuous decline, but less than 40% of steel mills were profitable. - Inventory: The port inventory continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory increased slightly. The overall data was marginally neutral after the decline in pig iron production, and the pressure on the raw material end was relatively limited. The overall inventory of iron ore is high, and there is no sign of effectively resolving the structural inventory contradiction, but the spot still has certain support [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - Manganese silicon: The main contract (SM603) closed down 0.07% at 5732 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, with a converted basis of 5910 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and a premium of 178 yuan/ton over the futures price [8]. - Ferrosilicon: The main contract (SF603) closed up 0.33% at 5462 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and a premium of 138 yuan/ton over the futures price [8]. Strategy Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, with a loose structure, high inventory, and a weak downstream building materials industry. The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. The future market trend will be led by the direction of the black metal sector and the issues of manganese ore for manganese silicon and electricity price increase for ferrosilicon. Particular attention should be paid to the manganese ore sector [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - Industrial silicon: The main contract (SI2601) closed at 8340 yuan/ton, with a change of -3.86% (-335). The weighted open interest changed by +39,071 lots to 498,264 lots. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China decreased by 100 yuan/ton and 50 yuan/ton respectively [11]. - Polysilicon: The main contract (PS2601) closed at 55,610 yuan/ton, with a change of +1.95% (+1065). The weighted open interest changed by +12,302 lots to 270,926 lots. The average prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feed material in the spot market were unchanged. The basis was -3310 yuan/ton. A new polysilicon platform company was registered on December 9, 2025 [13]. Strategy Viewpoints - Industrial silicon: The production in the southwest region is expected to decline in December due to the dry season, while the production in the northwest region is expected to be stable. The overall demand is slightly weak, and the price is expected to run weakly with support at 8100 - 8300 yuan/ton [12]. - Polysilicon: The production is expected to continue to decline in December, but the decline may be limited due to the capacity ramp - up in some northwest bases. The inventory accumulation pressure before the Spring Festival is difficult to relieve. The price is expected to fluctuate widely within the range, and attention should be paid to the progress of state - owned reserve procurement and warehouse receipt registration [14]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - Glass: The main contract closed at 984 yuan/ton, down 1.80% (-18). The sample enterprise's weekly inventory was 59.442 million cases, a decrease of 2.92 million cases (-4.68%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 24,652 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 2,658 lots [16]. - Soda ash: The main contract closed at 1125 yuan/ton, down 0.71% (-8). The sample enterprise's weekly inventory was 1.5386 million tons, a decrease of 48,800 tons (-4.68%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 30,481 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 31,328 lots [18]. Strategy Viewpoints - Glass: In November, several production lines in the domestic glass industry were shut down for maintenance. The real - estate industry still has downward pressure, and a bearish view on the glass market is recommended in the absence of unexpected changes [17]. - Soda ash: The overall supply pressure is still large, and the demand is relatively flat. The production enterprises mainly execute previous orders and have a strong mentality of stabilizing prices. The Alxa Phase II project is planned to be put into operation on December 11, which is expected to bring certain pressure to the market. The market is expected to continue the weak and volatile trend in the short term, and a cautiously bearish view is maintained [19].

Group 1: Market Information - SF main contract closed at 5462, up 18 for the day and 14 for the week, with a trading volume of 245,113 (down 169,367) and an open interest of 267,182 (up 3413) [3] - SM main contract closed at 5732, down 4 for the day and up 4 for the week, with a trading volume of 259,055 (down 6012) and an open interest of 282,351 (up 11,069) [3] - 72% FeSi spot prices were stable to weak, with some regions down 30 yuan/ton; 6517 silicon manganese spot prices were also stable to weak, with some regions down 20 yuan/ton [3] - Manganese ore prices in Tianjin were mostly stable, while semi - carbonated South African ore was down 0.1 for the week; Lanthanum semi - coke prices were stable [3] Group 2: Market Analysis and Trading Strategy - On December 9th, ferroalloy futures prices showed mixed trends. The SF main contract rose 0.33% and open interest increased by 3413 lots; the SM main contract fell 0.07% and open interest increased by 11,069 lots [5] - For ferrosilicon, after the November electricity price settlement, manufacturers' losses intensified, and future production is expected to decline. Steel demand is weak, and although the cost has some support, it will continue to oscillate at the bottom [5] - For silicomanganese, production has been declining. Steel demand is weak, but the cost has increased due to low port inventory and rising overseas mine quotes. It will also oscillate at the bottom [5] - Unilateral strategy: Oscillate at the bottom with cost support but future demand pressure; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [5][6] Group 3: Important Information - Hebei Iron and Steel Group's first - round inquiry price for silicomanganese in December was 5700 yuan/ton, compared with 5820 yuan/ton in November [7] - CML's January 2026 quotation for Australian ore blocks (Mn＞46%, Fe＜6%, SiO2<18%) to China was 5.0 US dollars per ton - degree, up 0.2 US dollars per ton - degree from last month [7] Group 4: Related Attachments - Figures include ferroalloy main contract trends, sf - sm spreads, monthly spreads of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, basis differences, spot prices, electricity prices, production costs, and production profits [9][13][15]