投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 宏观氛围转暖 低位有所止跌 ——铁合金周报20250609 投 资 咨 询 部 ：彭博涵 联 系 方 式 ：0371-58630083 电 子 邮 箱 ：pengbh_qh@ccnew.com 执 业证书 编 号 ：F3076814 投资咨询 编 号 ：Z0016415 01 硅铁 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 供应：端午归来宁夏部分厂家复产，产量低位迅速回升。 需求：铁水产量见顶，成材进入淡季对合金需求转弱。 | | | | | 库存：钢厂库存回落，厂家库存止降回升。 | | 需求不及 | | | 成本：青海宁夏周度电费小降1分，成本重心继续回落。 | 短期观望或 | 预期/供 | | 硅铁 | | 反弹偏空。 | 应减产超 | | | 基差：盘面贴水幅度较大。 | | 预期 | | | 总结：上周硅铁供增需弱，受商品反弹氛围提振价格止跌。前期供应快速收缩带 | | | | | 动平衡表缺口不断扩大，近两周显性库存消化下降较快，但降库之后企业开工意 | | | | | ...

仓单 最新 日变化 周变化 出厂价折盘面 日变化 周变化 宁夏#72 5100 -30 -100 5360 主力合约 5104 -92 -194 内蒙#72 5150 -50 -150 5450 01合约 5106 -4 -96 青海#72 5150 -50 -100 5480 05合约 5122 -18 -138 陕西#72 5100 -50 -100 5400 09合约 5104 2 -68 陕西#75 5750 -50 -100 主力月基差 256 62 94 江苏#72 5280 0 -200 1-5月差 -16 14 42 天津#72 5500 0 50 5-9月差 18 -20 -70 天津#72 1055 0 0 9-1月差 -2 6 28 现货 盘面 最新 硅铁自然块 产区汇总价 硅铁合格块 贸易商价 硅铁出口价 品种 项目 铁合金早报 硅锰贸易商价 2025/6/9 供应 需求 800 1300 1800 2300 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁：72%FeSi：出口价格：天 ...

每日观点 锰硅2509： 1.基本面：原料端，锰矿价格持续下行，硅锰成本支撑走弱。供应端，硅锰厂排产波动不大，南方地区部分硅锰厂有复产 意愿。硅锰厂主动报价意愿偏弱，部分持货方报价小幅下跌。需求端，下游钢厂对硅锰采购谨慎，多等待主流钢招进场； 中性。 2.基差：现货价5500元/吨，09合约基差-38元/吨，现货贴水期货。偏空。 3.库存：全国63家独立硅锰企业样本库存186100吨；全国50家钢厂库存平均可用天数15.15天。偏多。 4.盘面：MA20向下，09合约期价收于MA20下方。偏空。 5.主力持仓：主力持仓净空，多翻空。偏空。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-06-09锰硅早报 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 6.预期：预计本周锰硅价格震荡运行；SM2509：5400-5600震荡运行。 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 锰硅周报6.3-6.6 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每周观点 本周观点： 原料端，锰矿价格持续下行，硅锰成本支撑走弱。供应端，硅锰厂排产波动不大，南方地区部分硅锰厂有复产意愿。 硅锰厂主动报价意愿偏弱，部分持货方报价小幅下跌。需求端，下游钢厂对硅锰采购谨慎，多等待主流钢招进场。 下周行情预测： 锰矿价格持续下行，硅锰成本支撑走弱，下游钢厂对硅锰采购谨慎，预计下周锰硅价格震荡为主。 2 -2000元/吨 0元/吨 2000元/吨 4000元/吨 6000元/吨 8000元/吨 10000元/吨 12000元/吨 14000元/吨 2020-01-01 2020-08-01 2021-03-01 2021-10-01 2022-05-01 2022-12-01 2023-07- ...

Group 1: Cost and Pricing Analysis - The price of 72 silicon iron natural blocks is reported at 5000-5200 CNY/ton, down 50-100 CNY from last week[2] - The cost of silicon iron in Qinghai is 5523 CNY/ton with a loss of 323 CNY, while in Ningxia it is 5754 CNY/ton with a loss of 454 CNY[21] - Manganese silicon prices are reported at 5450-5550 CNY/ton, with a slight decrease in the northern region[8] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The weekly supply of silicon iron is 97,300 tons, an increase of 9.45% from last week, indicating a significant supply-demand mismatch[34] - Manganese silicon weekly demand is reported at 125,793 tons, down 0.86% from the previous week, while supply is at 171,885 tons, up 1.15%[64] - The total production of silicon iron in May was 405,200 tons, with an expected increase to 440,000 tons in June due to the resumption of production in Ningxia[22] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Trends - The market is experiencing a low-level wide fluctuation in the bottoming phase, with weak rebounds but slowing declines[4] - The overall sentiment in the industry remains pessimistic due to significant losses and low demand expectations[40] - The recent dialogue between China and the U.S. has alleviated some short-term macro pressures, with a focus on the dual-coke market trends[5]

Group 1 - The silicon manganese market shows moderate performance with futures stabilizing after a short-term dip, while spot prices in both northern and southern markets range from 5450 to 5500 yuan/ton [1] - The overall operating rate of 187 independent silicon manganese enterprises is 35.03%, with a week-on-week increase of 0.26%, and the average daily output is 24,600 tons, up by 280 tons week-on-week [1] - Demand for silicon manganese from the five major materials is 125,800 tons, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.86% [1] Group 2 - The silicon iron market experiences a cautious sentiment despite a slight easing of pessimism, with futures hitting recent lows and showing weak fluctuations [1] - The operating rate of silicon iron enterprises is 32.78%, with a week-on-week increase of 2.33%, and the average daily output is 13,900 tons, up by 1,760 tons week-on-week [1] - Demand for silicon iron from the five major materials is 20,300 tons, down by 1.21% week-on-week, indicating cautious purchasing behavior from downstream [1] Group 3 - Inventory levels for silicon manganese and silicon iron show mixed trends, with silicon manganese inventory slightly increasing and silicon iron inventory decreasing week-on-week [1] - The overall production of silicon manganese is low due to industry profit impacts, while silicon iron production has dropped to near historical lows due to enterprise losses [1] - Price pressures for both silicon manganese and silicon iron are influenced by factors such as cost, electricity prices, and industrial policies, with a focus on monitoring manganese ore supply [1]

Group 1 - The silicon manganese market shows signs of stabilization after a short-term dip, with current prices in the northern and southern markets ranging from 5450 to 5500 yuan/ton [1] - The overall operating rate of 187 independent silicon manganese enterprises is 35.03%, with a weekly increase of 0.26%, and an average daily output of 24,600 tons, up by 280 tons week-on-week [1] - Demand for silicon manganese from five major materials is 125,800 tons, reflecting a decrease of 0.86% week-on-week, while inventory levels have slightly increased [1] Group 2 - The silicon iron market remains cautious despite a slight easing of pessimism in black commodities, with silicon iron futures hitting recent lows and showing a weak oscillating trend [1] - The operating rate of silicon iron enterprises is 32.78%, with a weekly increase of 2.33%, and an average daily output of 13,900 tons, up by 1,760 tons week-on-week [1] - Weekly demand for silicon iron from five major materials is 20,300 tons, down by 1.21% week-on-week, indicating cautious purchasing behavior from downstream [1] Group 3 - Overall, silicon manganese production is low due to industry profit impacts, while iron water production remains at a high level for the same period, with resilient demand [1] - Silicon iron production has dropped to a near-record low due to enterprise losses, while downstream inventory levels remain low, indicating a need for careful monitoring of electricity prices and industrial policies [1] - Both silicon manganese and silicon iron are expected to exhibit oscillating trends, with no operational recommendations for cross-variety and cross-period trading at this time [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report This week, the alloy prices were affected by macro - sentiment disturbances and fluctuated following the black sector. The supply of ferrosilicon expanded month - on - month, and production resumed in Ningxia and Shaanxi. The supply of silicomanganese continued to rebound, with production expanding in the northern main producing areas. Ferrosilicon inventory decreased month - on - month, particularly in Inner Mongolia, while silicomanganese inventory increased slightly, with obvious inventory accumulation in Ningxia and de - stocking in other regions. The futures inventory of both alloys declined from a high level. Demand, as shown by blast furnace operation and hot metal production, decreased month - on - month and has reached a peak and started to decline, but the seasonal performance of the demand side is better than last year. In terms of cost valuation, the cost centers of both alloys have declined, which may drag down the silicomanganese futures price. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of both alloys has expanded marginally recently, which may affect the futures price trends. Attention should be paid to raw material price changes, steel mill production rhythms, the impact of weather on global manganese ore shipments, and market sentiment after the arrival of Australian ore this week [4][36]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Price Performance 3.1.1 Futures and Spot Price Trends - **Futures Market**: This week, the 2507 contract of ferrosilicon showed a weak trend, closing at 5,206 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 92 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 450,871 lots and an open interest of 89,676 lots, a week - on - week change of - 59,303 lots. The 2509 contract of silicomanganese rebounded slightly, closing at 5,538 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of 60 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 1,192,152 lots and an open interest of 452,001 lots, a week - on - week change of - 30,755 lots [2][8]. - **Spot Market**: This week, the spot prices of ferrosilicon in major regions of the country fluctuated. The aggregated quotation of 75B ferrosilicon in the main producing areas was 5100 - 5300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 200 - - 150 yuan/ton. The aggregated quotation range of silicomanganese spot in major regions of the country was 5300 - 5700 yuan/ton. Among them, the price of 6517 - type silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia was 5400 yuan/ton, and that in Guangxi was 5300 yuan/ton [10]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - **Futures - Spot Spread**: As of this week, the basis of the 2507 contract of ferrosilicon compared to the ferrosilicon spot in Inner Mongolia was - 56 yuan/ton, a change of - 58 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The basis of the 2509 contract of silicomanganese compared to the silicomanganese spot in Inner Mongolia was - 88 yuan/ton, a change of - 110 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [13]. - **Inter - month Spread**: As of this week, the spread between the 2407 and 2508 contracts of ferrosilicon was 74 yuan/ton, a change of - 32 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The spread between the 2507 and 2508 contracts of silicomanganese was - 2 yuan/ton, a change of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [14]. - **Spread between Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: As of this week, the spot spread between ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia was - 300 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The spread between the 2507 contract of ferrosilicon and the 2507 contract of silicomanganese was - 314 yuan/ton, a change of - 156 yuan/ton compared to the previous week, and the spread between the 2507 contract of ferrosilicon and the 2509 contract of silicomanganese was - 332 yuan/ton, a change of - 152 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [15]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Situation Analysis 3.2.1 Supply This week, the output of ferrosilicon was 97,300 tons, a month - on - month change of 12,400 tons and a change rate of 14.6%. The weekly operating rate was 32.78%, a change of 2.34 percentage points compared to the previous week. The output of silicomanganese was 171,900 tons, a month - on - month change of 2,000 tons and a change rate of 1.2%. The weekly operating rate was 35.03%, a change of 0.26 percentage points compared to the previous week [2][21]. 3.2.2 Demand The actual output of downstream hot metal decreased month - on - month. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, their blast furnace operating rate this week was 90.65%, a change of - 0.04 percentage points compared to the previous week, and their daily average hot metal output was 2.418 million tons, a month - on - month change of - 110,000 tons [2][25]. 3.2.3 Inventory As of June 6, the inventory of 60 ferrosilicon sample enterprises in the country was 67,780 tons, a month - on - month change of - 7,390 tons compared to half a month ago. The inventory of 63 silicomanganese sample enterprises in the country was 186,600 tons, a month - on - month change of 500 tons compared to a week ago [3][27]. 3.2.4 Profit This week, the profits of both alloys decreased month - on - month, while the silicomanganese's futures profit increased slightly. Taking Inner Mongolia as an example, the futures profit of the ferrosilicon's main contract decreased to - 387.25 yuan/ton, a month - on - month change of - 221 yuan/ton; the futures profit of the silicomanganese's main contract was - 425.865 yuan/ton, a month - on - month change of 89.2 yuan/ton. The spot profit of ferrosilicon was - 341.25 yuan/ton, a month - on - month change of - 173 yuan/ton; the spot profit of silicomanganese was - 513.865 yuan/ton, a month - on - month change of - 20.8 yuan/ton [28][29]. 3.2.5 Raw Material Prices This week, the price of semi - coke, the main raw material for ferrosilicon, remained at 595 yuan/ton. The port price of manganese ore, the main raw material for silicomanganese, started to decline. The price of semi - coke also decreased, causing the cost center of silicomanganese to decline, while the cost center of ferrosilicon remained relatively stable [33].

Industry Overview - Silicon iron (FeSi) is produced using raw materials such as coke, steel scrap, and quartz in electric furnaces, primarily used as a deoxidizer in steelmaking and as an alloying agent in various steel types [1][6] - The demand for silicon iron has been increasing due to the recovery of the domestic and international economy, with production expected to reach 5.438 million tons in 2024, a nearly 1% increase from the previous year [6][10] Production Capacity and Distribution - As of the end of 2024, China's silicon iron production capacity is projected to exceed 8 million tons per year, indicating potential overcapacity and intensified market competition [6][8] - The production is highly concentrated in regions rich in energy and resources, such as Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi, with Inner Mongolia's share rising from 27.2% in 2022 to 32% in 2024 due to its green energy initiatives [8][10] Market Pricing - The price of silicon iron in China showed a downward trend in 2024, decreasing from 6,661.43 CNY/ton at the beginning of the year to 6,024.29 CNY/ton by the end, a decline of approximately 9.56% [10] - Factors influencing price fluctuations include demand weakness, production adjustments, and changes in raw material costs [10] Import and Export Dynamics - China remains a net exporter of silicon iron, with imports in 2024 reaching 82,900 tons, a 40.51% increase year-on-year, driven by demand for high-end specialty silicon iron products [12] - Exports slightly increased to 428,800 tons in 2024, marking a 5.43% growth, while net export volume and trade surplus showed cyclical fluctuations [12] Competitive Landscape - The silicon iron industry in China is characterized by an oligopolistic structure with regional concentration, where companies leverage local resource advantages to enhance competitiveness [14][18] - Companies like Ordos, with an annual production capacity of 1.6 million tons, dominate the market due to their integrated coal-electricity-silicon iron production model [14][18] Development Trends - The industry is shifting towards high-end and specialized products, with increasing demand for high-purity and specialty silicon iron alloys driven by advancements in downstream applications [20] - Environmental policies are pushing the industry towards greener practices, with companies adopting technologies to reduce energy consumption and emissions [21] - The global market is becoming more competitive, with rising trade barriers and the emergence of new production regions, prompting companies to diversify their export markets and localize production [22]

5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 72%FeSi：市场价：内蒙古（日） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 72%FeSi：市场价：青海 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 72%FeSi：市场价：宁夏 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 ...