Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - Not provided in the content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - Various prices of silicon ferroalloys (FeSi) and silicon manganese (SiMn) in different regions from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including market prices, export/import prices, and contract closing prices [1][2][6] - Price differences between different grades and regions are also shown, such as 72%FeSi and 75%FeSi, and price spreads between regions like the north - south spread of SiMn [1][6] Supply - Production data of silicon ferroalloys and silicon manganese are provided, including monthly and weekly production volumes, and capacity utilization rates in different regions [4][6] - The supply - related data cover 136 sample enterprises for silicon ferroalloys and the overall production situation of silicon manganese in China [4][6] Demand - Demand - related data include the demand volume of silicon manganese in China, and the procurement volume and price of FeSi75 - B by HeSteel Group [4][6][7] - Production data of related industries like crude steel, stainless - steel, and metal magnesium are also presented, which are relevant to the demand for ferroalloys [4] Inventory - Inventory data of silicon ferroalloys and silicon manganese are provided, including inventory levels of sample enterprises in different regions, warehouse receipts, and effective forecasts [5][7] - Inventory average available days in different regions and the whole country are also shown [5][7] Cost and Profit - Cost - related data include electricity prices in different regions and the market price of semi - coke in Shaanxi [5] - Profit data cover the production profit of semi - coke, the profit of silicon ferroalloys in different regions, and the profit of silicon manganese in different regions [5][7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals and the market resonate, leading to an oscillating and slightly upward trend in the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese alloys [3][5][6]. Summary by Directory Overall Situation of Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - This week, the continuous high demand and rising cost of alloys pushed the price center slightly higher. The HeSteel tender price exceeded market expectations. In the short - term, the resonance of fundamentals and sentiment drove the alloy prices to move in an oscillating and slightly upward manner [5]. - Domestically, in August, the M2 - M1 gap in China narrowed by 0.4 percentage points, reaching a four - year low, indicating an increase in capital activation. Overseas, the Federal Reserve cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to adjust the weak employment market, which was in line with market expectations [5]. - After the military parade, steel mills resumed production, and the molten iron output recovered, supporting the demand for raw materials. The rising cost center provided short - term support for alloy prices [5]. Ferrosilicon - **Supply**: This week's ferrosilicon output was 113,100 tons, with a weekly production rate of 34.84%, remaining unchanged from last week. Factories maintained high - load production, and there were still plans to start furnaces in the future [54][59]. - **Demand**: - Steel - making demand: The production of downstream steel mills remained at a high level. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, the blast furnace operating rate this week was 90.35%, up 0.17 percentage points from last week, and the daily average molten iron output was 241,020 tons, up 4,700 tons from last week [66]. - Non - steel demand: In August, the stainless - steel crude steel output was 2.9028 million tons, up 78,700 tons month - on - month and down 2.25% year - on - year. In September, the stainless - steel crude steel production plan increased by 4.4% month - on - month. In August, the total output of magnesium metal was 69,500 tons, up 1.4% month - on - month and 5.58% year - on - year. In July, the ferrosilicon export volume was 35,900 tons, up 3.52% month - on - month [67][68]. - **Inventory**: - As of September 19, the inventory of 60 ferrosilicon sample enterprises was 63,390 tons, down 6,550 tons week - on - week. - The number of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts was 17,628, up 1,163 week - on - week, equivalent to 88,140 tons of inventory, with a weekly increase of 5,815 tons. - In August, the average available days of steel mills' ferrosilicon inventory were 14.67 days (+0.42 days) [74]. - **Price and Profit**: - This week, the ferrosilicon 2511 contract fluctuated, closing at 5,736 yuan/ton, up 128 yuan/ton week - on - week. The trading volume was 1,126,280 lots, and the open interest was 211,764 lots, down 6,200 lots week - on - week [8]. - This week, the spot prices of ferrosilicon in major regions continued to rise. The aggregated quotation of 75B ferrosilicon in main production areas was 5,280 - 5,430 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week change of 70 - 120 yuan/ton [9]. - The weekly on - screen profit was 367.50 yuan/ton, up 33.39% week - on - week and 353.70% year - on - year. The weekly spot profit was - 18.50 yuan/ton, up 77.58% week - on - week and 81.68% year - on - year [4]. Silicomanganese - **Supply**: - This week's silicomanganese output was 208,775 tons, down 5,355 tons from last week, with a week - on - week change rate of - 2.6%. The weekly operating rate was 45.68%, down 1.7 percentage points from last week [17]. - Supply in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia decreased. Inner Mongolia had furnace shutdowns for maintenance, and some factories in Ningxia reduced production loads [5]. - **Demand**: - Steel - making demand: The production of downstream steel mills remained at a high level. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, the blast furnace operating rate this week was 90.35%, up 0.17 percentage points from last week, and the daily average molten iron output was 241,020 tons, up 4,700 tons from last week. The silicomanganese demand was weakly stable [23]. - In July, the silicomanganese export volume was 2,400 tons, up 106.36% month - on - month and 79.90% year - on - year [4]. - **Inventory**: - As of September 19, the number of silicomanganese warehouse receipts was 60,676, down 764 week - on - week, equivalent to 303,380 tons of inventory, with a warehouse - receipt de - stocking of 3,820 tons. - In August, the average available days of steel mills' silicomanganese inventory were 14.98 days (+0.74 days). - As of September 19, the inventory of 63 silicomanganese sample enterprises was 198,900 tons, up 32,100 tons from a week ago [29][30][33]. - **Price and Profit**: - This week, the silicomanganese 2601 contract fluctuated, closing at 5,964 yuan/ton, up 132 yuan/ton week - on - week. The trading volume was 986,446 lots, and the open interest was 334,501 lots, up 8,931 lots week - on - week [8]. - This week, the aggregated quotation range of silicomanganese in major regions was 5,580 - 6,020 yuan/ton, with a price fluctuation of 0 - 270 yuan/ton [9]. - The weekly on - screen profit was 218.34 yuan/ton, up 341.84% week - on - week and down 25.56% year - on - year. The weekly spot profit was - 15.66 yuan/ton, up 88.19% week - on - week and 86.34% year - on - year [4]. Manganese Ore - **Price**: Overseas mining companies' quotations were stable on the whole. Some companies' prices increased slightly, and the port inquiry atmosphere was active. The port quotations of various manganese ore varieties in Tianjin Port were firm [37][38]. - **Output and Arrival**: - The global manganese ore departure volume decreased slightly month - on - month but remained at a relatively high historical level. - The manganese ore arrival volume decreased month - on - month. Before the holiday, restocking might lead to a continued increase in port clearance [40][46].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests a wait - and - see approach for both manganese - silicon and silicon - iron due to factors such as supply - demand balance and coal price trends. For manganese - silicon, with overall loose supply - demand but low inventory and stable thermal coal prices, significant price trends are unlikely. For silicon - iron, its price movement depends on energy prices, and the supply - demand contradiction is limited [43]. 3. Summary by Directory Part 1: Market Review - **Steel Inventory**: This week, the total steel inventory was 1519.74 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.13 million tons with a significantly narrowed growth rate. Among them, the steel mill inventory was 418.38 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14 million tons, and the social inventory was 1101.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.27 million tons [5]. - **Industry Policies and Data**: The National Energy Administration recently issued the "Technical Guidelines for the Preparation of Coal Mining Area Master Plans". In August, China exported 563 million tons of steel plates, a year - on - year decrease of 15.1%; from January to August, the cumulative export was 4808 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. From January to August 2025, China's export of mechanical and electrical products was 10.6 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%, accounting for 60.2% of the total export value. In August 2025, China exported 760,000 cars, a year - on - year increase of 25.2%; from January to August, the cumulative export was 4.93 million, a year - on - year increase of 20.5%. In August 2025, China exported 2.89 million air conditioners, a year - on - year decrease of 22.4%; from January to August, the cumulative export was 47.78 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.0%. In August, the export of refrigerators was 7.21 million, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%; from January to August, the cumulative export was 54.86 million, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. In August, the export of washing machines was 3.28 million, a year - on - year increase of 11.2%; from January to August, the cumulative export was 23.03 million, a year - on - year increase of 6.1%. In August, the export of LCD TVs was 10.73 million, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%; from January to August, the cumulative export was 69 million, a year - on - year decrease of 2.0%. In August 2025, China's excavator output was 27,590, a year - on - year increase of 13.2%. From January to August 2025, China's excavator output was 245,556, a year - on - year increase of 17.6% [5]. - **Manganese - Silicon Futures and Spot Prices**: The report shows the price changes of manganese - silicon futures and spot in different regions, including the basis, year - on - year changes, 30 - day price changes, and weekly price changes. For example, in Inner Mongolia, the basis was 110, with a year - on - year increase of 0.53%, a 30 - day decrease of 0.35%, and a weekly increase of 0.88%, and the price was 5730 [9]. - **Silicon - Iron Futures and Spot Prices**: Although not detailed in the given text, the report also mentions the silicon - iron futures trend and basis situation [13][16]. - **Power Price Changes**: The report presents the power price changes of ferroalloy in different regions such as Ningxia, Qinghai, Yunnan, and Inner Mongolia from June 20, 2023, to August 20, 2025 [19]. Part 2: Manganese - Silicon Industry Chain Overview The report shows the price, import volume, inventory, profit estimation, output, and demand (related to steel output) of manganese ore in the manganese - silicon industry chain from 2019 to 2025 through charts, but no specific numerical data is given in the text [21][24][26][27][30][31]. Part 3: Silicon - Iron Industry Chain Overview The report shows the profit estimation, output, and demand (related to steel output) of silicon - iron in the silicon - iron industry chain from 2019 to 2025 through charts, but no specific numerical data is given in the text [34][38][40]. Part 4: Outlook - **Manganese - Silicon**: Last week, manganese - silicon futures rose, and the spot price increased slightly with a slight decline in the basis. The September bid price of the iconic steel mill was 6000 yuan/ton, slightly higher than expected, but the long - term indecision of downstream bids indicated general demand. The output of manganese - silicon decreased month - on - month, and steel production also decreased. With overall loose supply - demand but low inventory and stable thermal coal spot prices, significant price trends are unlikely, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [43]. - **Silicon - Iron**: Last week, silicon - iron futures rose, the spot price reached a high and then slightly declined, and the basis changed little. The stable thermal coal spot price and high market expectations for the recovery of thermal coal prices drove the rebound of silicon - iron. In terms of supply - demand, the output last week remained flat, but steel production decreased month - on - month, and the supply - demand contradiction was limited. According to Mysteel statistics, the national capacity utilization rate of 136 independent silicon - iron enterprises was 34.84%, unchanged from last week, and the daily average output was 16,150 tons, unchanged from last week. The trend of silicon - iron depends on energy price changes, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Expectations are driving the black sector to perform stronger, and ferroalloys will continue to follow the fluctuations of the black sector [1][77][93] - In the short - term, affected by real - demand factors, the black sector may face a downward correction risk after the National Day holiday. However, considering the subsequent overseas fiscal and monetary easing, and China's policy space expansion, the black sector may gradually become more cost - effective for long - positions, and the key time point may be around the "Fourth Plenary Session" in mid - October [15][93] - Manganese silicon's fundamentals are not ideal due to high supply and weak demand in the building materials sector. It may follow the black sector's trend and is unlikely to have an independent strong market without sudden disturbances from the manganese ore end [15] - Silicon iron's supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions and drivers, and it will also likely follow the black sector's trend with a relatively low operational cost - effectiveness [93] 3. Summary by Directory Manganese Silicon Report 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Highlights**: Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price is 5820 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton; futures price is 5964 yuan/ton, up 132 yuan/ton; basis is 46 yuan/ton, down 92 yuan/ton; basis rate is 0.77%. Manganese silicon production profit remains low but has increased in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi. Costs in these regions have decreased. Manganese silicon weekly output is 20.88 tons, down 0.54 tons. Rebar weekly output is 206.45 tons, down 5.48 tons. Daily hot - metal output is 241.02 tons, up 0.47 tons. Manganese silicon's apparent inventory is 51.89 tons, up 2.99 tons [14] - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis has declined but is still at a neutral level. Production profit has recovered. Rebar demand is weak, while hot - metal output remains high. Apparent inventory is at a high level. Hebei Steel's September tender volume has increased slightly, but the tender price has decreased. The manganese silicon price has shown an upward trend in the short - term but is still within the oscillation range. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure around 6000 yuan/ton and the resistance of the right - side downward trend line [15] 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - As of September 19, 2025, Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot market price is 5820 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton; the futures main contract (SM601) closes at 5964 yuan/ton, up 132 yuan/ton; the basis is 46 yuan/ton, down 92 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the basis rate is 0.77%, at a relatively neutral level in historical statistics [20] 3.3 Profit and Cost - **Production Profit**: As of September 19, 2025, the estimated immediate profit of manganese silicon (excluding depreciation) remains low. In Inner Mongolia, it is - 251 yuan/ton, up 113 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, - 338 yuan/ton, up 114 yuan/ton; in Guangxi, - 548 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton [25] - **Production Cost**: As of September 19, 2025, the estimated immediate cost of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia is 5981 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, 6038 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton; in Guangxi, 6298 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The price of South African ore, Australian ore, and other raw materials has changed, and the market price of off - grade metallurgical coke has decreased [27][30] - **Manganese Ore Import**: In July, the manganese ore import volume was 274 tons, up 5.97 tons month - on - month and 45.65 tons year - on - year. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 1720.3 tons, up 94.17 tons or 5.79% year - on - year [33] - **Manganese Ore Inventory**: As of September 12, 2025, the manganese ore port inventory decreased to 452.5 tons, up 9.3 tons month - on - month [36] 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Total Output**: As of September 19, 2025, the weekly output of manganese silicon is 20.88 tons, down 0.54 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative weekly output has decreased by about 1.57% compared to the same period last year. In August 2025, the output was 90.93 tons, up 8.96 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to August decreased by 26.28 tons or 3.82% year - on - year [44] - **Main Production Areas Output**: No specific output data for main production areas are summarized other than the overall output - **Steel Tendering**: Hebei Steel Group's manganese silicon tender volume in September 2025 is 17000 tons, up 900 tons month - on - month and 6500 tons year - on - year; the tender price is 6000 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton month - on - month [55] - **Consumption**: As of September 19, 2025, the weekly apparent consumption of manganese silicon is 12.14 tons, down 0.09 tons week - on - week. The weekly output of rebar is 206.45 tons, down 5.48 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative weekly output has increased by about 0.04% year - on - year. The daily hot - metal output is 241.02 tons, up 0.47 tons, and the cumulative weekly output has increased by about 3.67% year - on - year. In August 2025, the national crude steel output was 7737 tons, down 233 tons month - on - month and 53 tons year - on - year [58][61] 3.5 Inventory - **Visible Inventory**: As of September 19, 2025, the estimated visible inventory of manganese silicon is 51.89 tons, up 2.99 tons week - on - week, and the inventory level remains at a high level compared to the same period [68] - **Sample Enterprises Inventory**: The inventory of 63 sample enterprises is 19.89 tons, up 3.21 tons week - on - week [71] - **Steel Mill Inventory**: In September, the average available days of manganese silicon in steel mills is 15.93 days, up 0.95 days month - on - month, and the inventory available days continue to rise but are still at a relatively low level compared to historical data [74] 3.6 Graphical Trends - From September 15 - 19, the manganese silicon futures price fluctuated upwards, with a weekly increase of 132 yuan/ton or 2.27%. In the daily - line level, the price touched around 6000 yuan/ton and then declined. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure around 6000 yuan/ton and the resistance of the right - side downward trend line. The key time point for the market may be around mid - to - late October [77] Silicon Iron Report 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Highlights**: The daily hot - metal output is 241.02 tons, up 0.47 tons, and the cumulative weekly output has increased by about 3.67% year - on - year. From January to August 2025, the cumulative output of magnesium metal is 54.41 tons, down 3.31 tons or 5.73% year - on - year. From January to July 2025, the cumulative export of silicon iron is 23.6 tons, down 1.22 tons or 4.93% year - on - year. The estimated visible inventory of silicon iron is 15.82 tons, up 0.29 tons week - on - week. The basis of Tianjin 72 silicon iron is 64 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the basis rate is 1.10%, at a relatively neutral level. The estimated immediate profit of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Qinghai has increased. The production cost in main production areas has remained basically stable [92] - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis is at a relatively neutral level. The production profit has slightly recovered. The output has remained basically stable. The demand for iron and steel has recovered, but the demand for exports and magnesium metal is average. The steel tender volume has increased slightly, but the tender price has decreased. The silicon iron price has shown an upward trend in the short - term but is still within the oscillation range. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure around 5800 yuan/ton [93] 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - As of September 19, 2025, the spot price of Tianjin 72 silicon iron is 5800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the futures main contract (SF511) closes at 5736 yuan/ton, up 128 yuan/ton; the basis is 64 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the basis rate is 1.10%, at a relatively neutral level [98] 3.3 Profit and Cost - **Production Profit**: As of September 19, 2025, the estimated immediate profit of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia is - 363 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, - 259 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan/ton; in Qinghai, - 346 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton [103] - **Production Cost**: As of September 19, 2025, the production cost in main production areas has remained basically stable. In Inner Mongolia, it is 5713 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, 5609 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton; in Qinghai, 5716 yuan/ton, up 83 yuan/ton. The price of silica in the northwest region has remained stable, and the price of semi - coke small materials has increased [106][109] 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Total Output**: As of September 19, 2025, the weekly output of silicon iron is 11.31 tons, remaining basically stable week - on - week, and the cumulative weekly output has increased by about 1.42% compared to the same period last year. In August 2025, the output is 49.33 tons, up 4.66 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to August has increased by 2.8 tons or 0.78% year - on - year [114] - **Main Production Areas Output**: No specific output data for main production areas are summarized other than the overall output - **Steel Tendering**: Hebei Steel Group's 75B silicon iron alloy tender volume in September 2025 is 3151 tons, up 316 tons month - on - month and 650 tons year - on - year; the tender price is 5800 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan/ton month - on - month [120] - **Steel Consumption**: The daily hot - metal output is 241.02 tons, up 0.47 tons, and the cumulative weekly output has increased by about 3.67% year - on - year. In August 2025, the national crude steel output is 7737 tons, down 233 tons month - on - month and 53 tons year - on - year [123] - **Non - steel Consumption**: From January to August 2025, the cumulative output of magnesium metal is 54.41 tons, down 3.31 tons or 5.73% year - on - year. As of September 19, 2025, the price of magnesium metal in Fugu area remains stable. From January to July 2025, the cumulative export of silicon iron is 23.6 tons, down 1.22 tons or 4.93% year - on - year. The estimated immediate profit of silicon iron export is - 12 yuan/ton, showing a slight recovery but still at a relatively low level compared to the same period. From January to July 2025, the cumulative output of overseas crude steel is 4.89 billion tons, down 400 tons or 0.81% year - on - year [126][129][130] 3.5 Inventory - **Visible Inventory**: As of September 19, 2025, the estimated visible inventory of silicon iron is 15.82 tons, up 0.29 tons week - on - week, and the inventory level remains at a high level compared to the same period [137] - **Steel Mill Inventory**: In September, the average available days of silicon iron in steel mills is 15.52 days, up 0.85 days month - on - month, and the raw material inventory in steel mills continues to rise slightly but is still at a relatively low level compared to historical data [140] 3.6 Graphical Trends - From September 15 - 19, the silicon iron futures price fluctuated upwards, with a weekly increase of 150 yuan/ton or 2.69%. In the daily - line level, the price continues to oscillate upwards along the hourly - level upward trend but remains within the oscillation range. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure around 5800 yuan/ton [145]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel market was previously driven by macro factors, but currently, the macro - driving force has weakened in the short term, and the fundamentals have not formed an upward drive. After digesting the short - term impact of the Fed's less - than - expected interest rate cut, the steel futures market may turn to a volatile consolidation. The iron ore market has limited price fluctuations, and the price is expected to move in a range. The coal - coke market may see an improvement in the supply - demand structure before the National Day, but the high supply of steel will suppress the rebound height of coal - coke prices. The ferroalloy market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and the supply - demand pressure may weaken. The soda ash market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the high inventory of the upper - middle reaches restricts the price. The glass market lacks a clear trend and trading logic due to high inventory and weak demand, and the supply - demand pattern of near - term supply exceeding demand remains unchanged [3][20][33][51][62][88]. Summary by Directory Steel - **Macro and Fundamental Analysis**: The Fed's interest rate cut was less than expected, and the market risk preference may be adjusted in the short term. Among the five major steel products, only rebar showed a situation of reduced supply, increased demand, and inventory turning from increase to decrease. The overall steel market is still in the inventory accumulation channel, but the inventory accumulation rate has slowed down, and there is a replenishment expectation before the National Day [3]. - **Price and Spread Data**: Provided the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures contracts on September 19 and 18, 2025, as well as the corresponding month - spreads, basis, and spot prices [4][7][10]. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: The contradiction in the iron ore market is not significant, and the price fluctuation has narrowed. The supply has recovered to a medium - high level, and the overall demand is in a tight balance due to pre - holiday replenishment by steel mills. The profit of steel mills has declined marginally, and the downstream steel demand is average, with inventory accumulation but a slowdown in the inventory accumulation slope [20]. - **Price and Fundamental Data**: Presented the price data of iron ore futures contracts, basis, and spot prices, as well as fundamental data such as daily average hot - metal output, port desilting volume, and global shipping volume [21][27]. Coal - Coke - **Market Outlook**: "Anti - involution" remains the focus of the market in the second half of the year. The market participants' expectations for the future are gradually improving, and there is a possibility of inventory transfer before the National Day to improve the supply - demand structure. However, the high supply of steel will suppress the rebound height of coal - coke prices [33]. - **Price and Spread Data**: Included the cost of coal - coke warehouse receipts, basis, month - spreads, and various profit ratios [38]. - **Spot Price Data**: Provided the spot prices of coking coal and coke, as well as import and export profits [39]. Ferroalloy - **Market Logic**: The trading logic of ferroalloys lies in the expectation of supply - side contraction. The production profit of ferroalloys is declining, and the supply - demand pressure may weaken [51]. - **Data**: Presented the daily data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, including basis, month - spreads, and spot prices [52][54]. Soda Ash - **Market Situation**: The market sentiment and focus are volatile. The supply of soda ash is expected to remain high in the long - term, and the demand is stable. The inventory of the upper - middle reaches is high, and the supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [62]. - **Price and Spread Data**: Provided the closing prices of soda ash futures contracts, month - spreads, and basis [63]. - **Spot Price Data**: Showed the spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions and their spreads [67]. Glass - **Market Analysis**: The high inventory of the upper - middle reaches and weak demand limit the price of glass. The supply - demand pattern of near - term supply exceeding demand remains unchanged, and the price lacks a clear trend and trading logic [88]. - **Price and Spread Data**: Presented the closing prices of glass futures contracts, month - spreads, and basis [89]. - **Sales Data**: Provided the daily sales data of glass in different regions [90].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For ferrosilicon, supply is relatively stable, demand is limited by slow steel inventory reduction, and the cost side provides support. The slow progress of steel inventory reduction is the biggest risk point [5]. - For silicomanganese, both supply and demand decline slightly, and the cost side has strong support. It is expected to fluctuate at the bottom this week [5]. - The trading strategies include a bottom - oscillating trend for single - side trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and selling straddle combinations on rallies for options [5]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - **Ferrosilicon**: Supply is stable with a slight increase in production. The rumor of supply contraction was refuted. Demand is affected by poor steel inventory reduction and low profits, and there is limited room for further growth in hot metal production. The cost side is supported by strong thermal coal prices and stable - to - strong electricity prices in ferroalloy production areas [5]. - **Silicomanganese**: Supply decreases slightly, but the absolute production volume is still high compared to the same period in previous years. Demand is dragged down by the continuous compression of steel profits and the decline in steel production. The cost side is supported by the relatively low manganese ore port inventory compared to last year and stable overseas mine quotes [5]. Strategies - **Single - side**: Bottom - oscillating [5]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [5]. - **Options**: Sell straddle combinations on rallies [5]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis No relevant content provided. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking Supply and Demand Data Tracking - **Demand**: The average daily pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills is 2.4102 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0047 million tons. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel types is 19,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 100 tons, and for silicomanganese is 121,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 900 tons [10]. - **Supply**: The operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises is 36.84%, unchanged from the previous week, and the weekly supply is 113,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 100 tons. The operating rate of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises is 45.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.7%, and the weekly supply is 208,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,400 tons [11]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of September 19, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises is 63,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,600 tons. The inventory of 63 independent silicomanganese enterprises is 198,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 32,100 tons [12]. Cost and Profit - **Silicomanganese**: The production costs in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, and Guizhou are 5,788 yuan/ton, 5,901 yuan/ton, 6,363 yuan/ton, and 6,102 yuan/ton respectively, all showing losses. The overall cost in the north is 5,824 yuan/ton, and in the south is 6,209 yuan/ton [30]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The production costs in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, Qinghai, and Gansu are 5,559 yuan/ton, 5,612 yuan/ton, 5,624 yuan/ton, 5,583 yuan/ton, and 5,633 yuan/ton respectively, all in the loss - making range [41]. Other Data - **Manganese Ore Price**: The price of South African Mn36.5% semi - carbonate manganese lumps at Tianjin Port and the CIF quotes of South African South32 semi - carbonate manganese lumps are presented in the report [39]. - **Carbon and Electricity Prices**: The prices of Fugu blue charcoal small materials, Yulin thermal coal lump coal, Ningxia chemical coke, and regional electricity prices are shown [49][52]. - **Steel Mill Bidding Prices**: The monthly procurement prices of Hebei representative steel mills for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are included [55]. - **Monthly Output**: The monthly output and cumulative output of silicomanganese and ferrosilicon in China are provided [61][63]. - **Import and Export**: The monthly net import volume of manganese ore and the monthly net export volume of ferrosilicon in China are presented [68][69]. - **Metal Magnesium Demand**: The price of Fugu metal magnesium and the cumulative production of metal magnesium in Yulin, Shaanxi are shown [71]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of ferrosilicon in alloy plants and steel mills, the inventory available days of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in steel mills, and the manganese ore inventory in alloy plants, steel mills, and ports are included [74][76][77].

Report Title - The report is titled “Silicon Ferrosilicon: Market Sentiment Fluctuates, Wide - Range Volatility; Manganese Silico - Manganese: Market Sentiment Fluctuates, Wide - Range Volatility” [1] Report Date - The report is dated September 19, 2025 [1] Market Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - The market sentiment of silicon ferrosilicon and manganese silico - manganese is fluctuating, and both are in a state of wide - range volatility [1] Key Points by Section 1. Fundamental Tracking Futures Data - Silicon Ferrosilicon 2511: Closing price is 5756, down 10 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 319,809 and an open interest of 213,520 [1] - Silicon Ferrosilicon 2601: Closing price is 5744, up 2 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 108,408 and an open interest of 97,180 [1] - Manganese Silico - Manganese 2511: Closing price is 5948, down 14 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 220,839 and an open interest of 112,707 [1] - Manganese Silico - Manganese 2601: Closing price is 5970, down 20 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 246,049 and an open interest of 335,397 [1] Spot Data - Silicon Ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia: Price is 5350 yuan/ton [1] - Manganese Silico - Manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia: Price is 5730 yuan/ton [1] - Manganese Ore Mn44 block: Price is 40.0 yuan/ton - degree [1] - Semi - coke small material in Shenmu: Price is 650 yuan/ton [1] Spread Data - Silicon Ferrosilicon spot - 11 futures spread: - 406 yuan/ton, up 10 from the previous trading day [1] - Manganese Silico - Manganese spot - 01 futures spread: - 240 yuan/ton, up 14 from the previous trading day [1] - Silicon Ferrosilicon 2511 - 2601 near - far month spread: 12 yuan/ton, down 12 from the previous trading day [1] - Manganese Silico - Manganese 2511 - 2601 near - far month spread: - 22 yuan/ton, up 6 from the previous trading day [1] - Manganese Silico - Manganese 2511 - Silicon Ferrosilicon 2511 cross - variety spread: 192 yuan/ton, down 4 from the previous trading day [1] - Manganese Silico - Manganese 2601 - Silicon Ferrosilicon 2601 cross - variety spread: 226 yuan/ton, down 22 from the previous trading day [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - On September 18, the price range of 72 silicon ferrosilicon in different regions was: 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton in Shaanxi, 5350 - 5400 yuan/ton in Ningxia, 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton in Qinghai, 5350 - 5400 yuan/ton in Gansu, and 5350 - 5400 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia. The price range of 75 silicon ferrosilicon was: 6000 - 6050 yuan/ton in Shaanxi, 5900 - 6000 yuan/ton (+100) in Ningxia, 5950 - 6000 yuan/ton (+125) in Qinghai, 5950 - 6000 yuan/ton (+50) in Gansu, and Inner Mongolia did not quote. The FOB price of 72 silicon ferrosilicon was 1040 - 1060 dollars/ton, and that of 75 was 1100 - 1130 dollars/ton. The price range of 6517 silicon manganese was 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton in the north and 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton in the south [1] - A large steel group in Hebei tendered 17,000 tons of silicon manganese in September, an increase of 900 tons compared to August. The first - round inquiry price was 5800 yuan/ton, and the final price was 6000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton compared to August [1] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon ferrosilicon is 0, and that of manganese silico - manganese is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market is weak, and the prices of finished steel products continue to fluctuate weakly. Although the global liquidity easing is expected to drive the recovery of the manufacturing industry and indirectly boost steel demand in the long - term, currently, the demand for both rebar and hot - rolled coils is weak, and steel prices may still decline if demand cannot be effectively restored [2]. - The supply of iron ore has increased, with overseas shipments reaching a high level in the same period. Although the demand for iron ore remains strong in the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate as the profitability of steel mills has been decreasing [5]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are in a range - bound pattern, and the operation difficulty is high. From a fundamental perspective, they are likely to follow the trend of the black sector, and the operation cost - effectiveness is relatively low [9][11]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate. Although there is some support from the demand side, the problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand still exist. The price of polysilicon is more influenced by policies, and the inventory reduction space of the whole industry is limited [14][17]. - The glass market shows a differentiated trend, with supply slightly increasing and inventory decreasing marginally. However, terminal demand is weak, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend. The demand for soda ash is average, and it is expected to fluctuate narrowly [20][22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products Rebar - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3147 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton (- 0.66%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 14137 tons, and the position increased by 36313 lots. In the spot market, the prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The demand for rebar is weak even in the traditional peak season. If demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may decline. Attention should be paid to the policy trends of the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3354 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton (- 1.06%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 13892 tons, and the position increased by 20862 lots. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai remained unchanged [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: Although hot - rolled coils have some resilience, the overall demand is still weak. The inventory has slightly increased, and steel prices may decline if demand cannot be effectively restored [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 800.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.56% (- 4.50), and the position decreased by 936 lots to 53.35 million lots. The weighted position was 84.20 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 792 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 42.25 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.02% [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The supply of iron ore has increased, with the shipments from Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream countries all rising. The demand is strong in the short - term, but the profitability of steel mills has been decreasing. The port inventory has slightly decreased, and the price is expected to fluctuate [5]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Silicomanganese - **Market Quotes**: The main contract (SM601) of silicomanganese closed down 0.33% at 5970 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5820 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 40 yuan/ton to the futures price [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The price of silicomanganese is in a range - bound pattern. It is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the resistance near 6000 yuan/ton and the support between 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton [9]. Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes**: The main contract (SF511) of ferrosilicon closed down 0.17% at 5756 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a discount of 6 yuan/ton to the futures price [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The price of ferrosilicon is also in a range - bound pattern. It is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the resistance near 5800 yuan/ton and the support between 5400 - 5450 yuan/ton [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: The main contract (SI2511) of industrial silicon closed at 8905 yuan/ton, down 0.67% (- 60). The weighted position increased by 5945 lots to 516168 lots. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China remained unchanged, with a basis of 195 yuan/ton and - 105 yuan/ton respectively [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate. Although the demand from downstream polysilicon and silicone DMC has increased, the problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand still exist. Attention should be paid to the progress of capacity reduction and the resumption of production on the supply side [14][15]. Polysilicon - **Market Quotes**: The main contract (PS2511) of polysilicon closed at 53205 yuan/ton, down 0.53% (- 285). The weighted position decreased by 5951 lots to 283593 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material were 49.5 yuan/kg, 51.1 yuan/kg, and 52.6 yuan/kg respectively, with a basis of - 605 yuan/ton [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The price of polysilicon is more influenced by policies. The supply is close to the high level in the same period, and the inventory reduction space of the whole industry is limited. Attention should be paid to the progress of capacity integration and downstream price transfer [17]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - **Market Quotes**: The main contract of glass closed at 1208 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, down 2.11% (- 26). The prices in North China and Central China were 1150 yuan and 1140 yuan respectively, with the former remaining unchanged and the latter increasing by 10 yuan. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 67.5 million cases (- 1.10%). The atmosphere in the market was bearish [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The spot market shows a differentiated trend. The supply has slightly increased, and the inventory has decreased marginally due to pre - holiday stocking. However, terminal demand is weak, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend [20]. Soda Ash - **Market Quotes**: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1306 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, down 2.10% (- 28). The price in Shahe decreased by 23 yuan to 1216 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 4.19 million tons (- 1.10%), including a decrease of 2.84 million tons in heavy - soda ash inventory and 1.35 million tons in light - soda ash inventory. The atmosphere in the market was bullish [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The demand for soda ash is average, and the orders before the National Day have increased, but the transaction is still based on rigid demand. The market lacks substantial positive support and is expected to fluctuate narrowly [22].

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料 ，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠 ，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证 ，据此投资，责 本报告不构成个人投资建议 客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况 本报告版权仅为我公司所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院 告进行有悖原意的引用 、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,970.00 | -20.00↓ | SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,756.00 | -10.00↓ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 555,005.00 | +8635.00↑ | SF期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 397,675.00 | +6551.00↑ | | ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Black Metal Daily Report (Ferroalloy Daily) [2] - Report date: September 18, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhou Tao [3] Group 2: Market Information Futures - SF main contract: closing price 5756, daily change -10, weekly change 130, trading volume 319809, daily change 154140, open interest 207907, daily change 5613 [4] - SM main contract: closing price 5970, daily change -20, weekly change 132, trading volume 246049, daily change 76765, open interest 335397, daily change 8548 [4] Spot - Silicon ferro - different regions' prices and their daily/weekly changes are presented, e.g., 72%FeSi Inner Mongolia 5450 (0 daily, 40 weekly) [4] - Manganese silicon - different regions' prices and their daily/weekly changes are presented, e.g., silicon manganese 6517 Inner Mongolia 5730 (0 daily, 50 weekly) [4] Basis/Spread - Silicon ferro basis and spreads: Inner Mongolia - main contract -306 (10 daily, -90 weekly), SF - SM spread -214 (10 daily, -2 weekly) [4] - Manganese silicon basis and spreads: Inner Mongolia - main contract -240 (20 daily, -82 weekly) [4] Raw Materials - Manganese ore (Tianjin): Australian lump 40.2 (0.2 daily, 0.4 weekly), South African semi - carbonate 34.3 (0 daily, 0.3 weekly), Gabon lump 40 (0 daily, 0 weekly) [4] - Blue charcoal small materials: different regions' prices and their daily/weekly changes are presented, e.g., Shaanxi 660 (0 daily, 10 weekly) [4] Group 3: Market Judgment Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Bottom - oscillating; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Sell straddle option combinations [7] Silicon Ferro - On September 18, the spot price was stable. Supply rumors were false, and the supply remained high. Demand had rigid support from steel production. Market sentiment was affected by the Fed's interest - rate cut and domestic asset price adjustments, with a recent bottom - oscillating trend [6] Manganese Silicon - On September 18, manganese ore spot was stable with a slight upward trend, and the manganese silicon spot price was stable. Supply was high, demand was affected by reduced rebar production, and the cost was supported by high - priced manganese ore. It was in a short - term bottom - oscillating state [6] Group 4: Important Information - On September 18, Tianjin Port's semi - carbonate Mn36.02% was quoted at 34.5 yuan/ton degree, Gabon lump Mn47% at 40.5 yuan/ton degree, and Australian lump Mn41.7% at 40.5 yuan/ton degree [8] - Jupiter announced the October 2025 manganese ore shipment price to China: Mn36.5% South African semi - carbonate block at 4.05 US dollars/ton degree (unchanged) [9] Group 5: Related Attachments Figures - Figures show ferroalloy main contract trends, basis, spreads, production costs, and profits in different regions and time periods, such as silicon ferro and manganese silicon monthly spreads, cost - profit analysis in various regions [10][14][16][21][26] Cost - Profit Tables - Silicon ferro cost - profit table shows production costs and profits in regions like Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, Qinghai, and Gansu [21] - Manganese silicon cost - profit table shows production costs and profits in regions like Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, and Guizhou [26]