Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.737 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 29.03%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 513 million yuan, up 9.05% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 1.517 billion yuan, a 21.85% increase year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 16.65% year-on-year to 135 million yuan [4][5] - The company has increased its promotional spending, leading to a temporary pressure on net profit margins, but long-term growth prospects remain strong. The cash flow from operating activities for Q1-Q3 2025 was 498 million yuan, up 25.58% year-on-year [5][6] - The company has gradually released production capacity, with fixed assets reaching 1.492 billion yuan, a 47.19% increase year-on-year. The completion of the first phase of the restricted stock incentive plan is expected to enhance operational vitality [6] Financial Summary - For the fiscal years 2023A to 2027E, the company is projected to achieve the following: - Revenue growth from 4.327 billion yuan in 2023 to 10.194 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20.8% [7][9] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 429 million yuan in 2023 to 1.125 billion yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 25.2% [7][9] - The company's gross margin is projected to stabilize around 42.3% to 42.5% from 2025 to 2026, while the net margin is expected to improve from 10.5% in 2025 to 11.0% in 2027 [7][9]

Market Overview - The feed sector experienced a decline of 1.05% on October 23, with Guai Bao Pet Food leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3922.41, up 0.22%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13025.45, also up 0.22% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Guai Bao Pet Food saw a significant drop of 14.42%, closing at 73.25, with a trading volume of 110,000 shares and a transaction value of 832 million [2] - Other notable declines included Zhongchong Co. at -3.76% and Petty Co. at -3.18% [2] - In contrast, several stocks in the feed sector, such as Zhenghong Technology and Bangmu Technology, recorded slight gains of 1.23% and 1.10% respectively [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The feed sector experienced a net outflow of 212 million from major funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 1.87 billion [2][3] - Major funds showed a negative net flow in several stocks, including Dabeinong and Haida Group, indicating a shift in investment sentiment [3] - Retail investors displayed a more favorable stance towards stocks like Tangrenshen, which saw a net inflow of 840.45 million [3]

Core Insights - The company Hai Da Group has been actively engaged in a research survey conducted by Quan Guo Fund, focusing on its operational performance and future strategies [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 96.094 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.24%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.142 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.31% [2]. Business Strategy - The company plans to spin off its subsidiary Hai Da Holdings for a listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. This move is part of the company's strategy to enhance its international influence and global competitiveness, aligning with the national "Belt and Road" initiative [3]. - The restructuring of overseas subsidiaries related to feed, seedlings, and animal health products is currently underway to facilitate this spin-off [3]. Sales and Production Goals - The company aims to achieve a sales target of 51.5 million tons of feed by 2030, with a focus on increasing domestic capacity utilization and market share while expanding overseas operations [4]. - The feed production capacity utilization has improved year-on-year due to strong sales growth [5]. International Expansion - In the first half of the year, overseas feed sales increased by approximately 40%, with the company actively exploring new regions for growth [6]. - The spin-off is expected to accelerate the development of the company's overseas feed business, with a target of reaching 7.2 million tons in overseas feed sales by 2030 [10]. Dividend and Financial Management - The company is gradually reducing its debt ratio and plans to implement a more diverse profit distribution strategy to reward shareholders based on actual operating conditions [9]. Management Efficiency - The spin-off aims to streamline the domestic and international structure, enhancing management efficiency and establishing a specialized management team to support market development [11].

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery sector continues to experience a downturn, with the only agricultural ETF (159275) showing a decline of 0.51% as of the latest report [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The agricultural ETF (159275) opened with a slight increase but then fluctuated downwards, currently priced at 0.976, reflecting a decrease of 0.005 [2]. - Key stocks in the sector, including biological companies and feed processing firms, have seen significant declines, with BioShares dropping over 4% and several others falling by more than 3% [1][2]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The pig farming industry is entering a phase of capacity reduction starting July 2025, with a reported decrease of 50,000 breeding sows from July to August this year [3]. - The industry is facing pressures from market conditions, disease risks, and regulatory policies, leading to an increased motivation for capacity reduction [4]. Group 3: Investment Insights - The current valuation of the agricultural and fishery sector is relatively low, with the agricultural ETF's underlying index showing a price-to-book ratio of 2.53, placing it in the 25th percentile over the past decade, indicating a favorable time for investment [3]. - The agricultural ETF (159275) tracks the CSI Agricultural Index, which includes major companies in the sector, with a concentration of about 40% in pig-related stocks [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Social Security Fund's investment movements in the third quarter reveal a strategic shift, with notable changes in holdings across various stocks, indicating potential investment opportunities and sector performance trends [1][2][3][4] Group 1: Holdings Overview - The Social Security Fund appeared in the top ten shareholders of 33 stocks by the end of the third quarter, holding a total of 625 million shares valued at 13.07 billion yuan [1] - The fund maintained its position in 6 stocks, initiated positions in 7 stocks, increased holdings in 10 stocks, and reduced holdings in 10 stocks during the quarter [1] - The stock with the highest number of Social Security Fund shareholders is Sanhe Tree, with three funds listed among the top ten shareholders, holding a total of 15.02 million shares, accounting for 2.04% of the company's circulating shares [1] Group 2: Significant Holdings - The stocks with over 10 million shares held by the Social Security Fund include 17 stocks, with Poly Development having the largest holding of 124 million shares, which increased by 19.86 million shares in the third quarter [2] - China Jushi and CNOOC Development follow with holdings of 85.52 million shares and 55.16 million shares, respectively [2] - The highest holding percentage is in Baiya Shares, at 4.34% of circulating shares, with two funds increasing their holdings by over 3.18 million shares [2] Group 3: Market Performance - The newly acquired stocks by the Social Security Fund have seen an average increase of 0.28% since October, with Jinling Mining leading with a 10.36% increase [3] - Other notable performers include Koyuan Wisdom and Blue Science High-tech, with increases of 7.18% and 6.04%, respectively [3] - Among the new stocks, six reported year-on-year net profit growth, with Blue Science High-tech turning a profit with a net profit of 33.31 million yuan [3] Group 4: Performance of Increased Holdings - Among the stocks where the Social Security Fund increased its holdings, nine reported year-on-year net profit growth, with Xinqiang Lian turning a profit with a total revenue of 3.618 billion yuan, up 84.10% year-on-year [4] - The profit growth for Xinqiang Lian is attributed to the recovery in wind power demand and improved cost management [4] - Other companies with significant profit growth include Sanhe Tree, Stanley, Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical, Weili Medical, and Haida Group [4]

Core Insights - The Social Security Fund's holdings at the end of Q3 included 33 stocks, totaling 625 million shares with a market value of 13.07 billion yuan [1] - The fund maintained positions in 6 stocks, initiated positions in 7 stocks, increased holdings in 10 stocks, and reduced holdings in 10 stocks during the quarter [1] Holdings Overview - The stock with the highest number of Social Security Fund shareholders is Sanhe Tree, with three funds appearing among the top ten shareholders, holding a total of 15.02 million shares, accounting for 2.04% of the company's circulating shares [1] - Other companies with two funds holding shares include China Jushi, Haida Group, Xin Qiang Lian, Ying Shi Network, and Baiya Shares [1] - A total of 17 stocks had holdings exceeding 10 million shares, with Poly Development having the largest holding of 124 million shares, which increased by 19.86 million shares in Q3 [1] Shareholding Proportions - Baiya Shares had the highest proportion of holdings by the Social Security Fund at 4.34%, with two funds increasing their holdings by over 3.18 million shares in Q3 [2] - China National Pharmaceutical Group followed with a holding proportion of 4.12% [2] - New stocks added included Jinling Mining with 8.81 million shares, followed by Blue Science High-tech and Electric Connection Technology with 7.64 million and 7.60 million shares, respectively [2] Market Performance - The average increase for new stocks held by the Social Security Fund since October is 0.28%, with Jinling Mining leading at a 10.36% increase [2] - Other notable increases include Koyuan Wisdom and Blue Science High-tech, which rose by 7.18% and 6.04%, respectively [2] Earnings Performance - Among the new stocks, six reported year-on-year net profit growth, with Blue Science High-tech turning a profit with a net profit of 33.31 million yuan [3] - Jinling Mining and Yuxin Electronics reported net profit growth of 60.21% and 47.09%, respectively [3] - In addition to new stocks, ten stocks saw increased holdings from the Social Security Fund, with Poly Development seeing the largest increase of 19.86 million shares [3] Growth in Holdings - The stocks with the most significant increases in holding proportions include Sanhe Tree and Xin Qiang Lian, with increases of 1.33 and 1.31 percentage points, respectively [3] - Nine stocks among those increased by the fund reported year-on-year net profit growth, with Xin Qiang Lian achieving a turnaround with a total revenue of 3.618 billion yuan, up 84.10% year-on-year [3]

Core Insights - The agricultural sector in China is experiencing growth in industrial feed production, with a total output of 30.36 million tons in September 2025, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.4% and a year-on-year increase of 5.0% [1] - Key feed products such as compound feed, concentrated feed, and additive premix feed have shown varying growth rates, with compound feed increasing by 5.1% year-on-year [1] Production Data - In the third quarter of 2025, the total industrial feed production reached 24.653 million tons, marking a year-on-year growth of 6.6% [1] - The production of compound feed, concentrated feed, and additive premix feed in the same period was 23.029 million tons, 0.954 million tons, and 0.536 million tons, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.8%, 0.2%, and 7.5% [1] Price Trends - The prices of major feed products have shown a downward trend year-on-year, with specific price changes for various types of concentrated feed and premix feed in September 2025 [3] - The average price per kilogram for different types of feed products from January to September 2025 indicates a cumulative year-on-year decrease, with concentrated feed prices showing a decline of 3.7% [3] Ingredient Usage - In the compound feed produced, corn accounted for 33.6% of the total usage, which is a decrease of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Soybean meal accounted for 14.3% of the total usage in both compound and concentrated feeds [1]

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨海大集团（002311.SZ） [Table_Title] 海大集团 2025 年三季报暨港股上市预案点评： 饲料量利齐升，看好海外业务分拆上市 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司单三季度饲料板块量利齐升，归母净利润增长 30%以上。单三季度饲料销量约 860 万吨， 同比增长 21%，测算饲料吨利 160 元/吨，同比增长 10%，主要系产品结构优化及海外占比提 升。三季度猪价同比大幅下行且套保空间有限，叠加外购仔猪成本抬升，生猪养殖头盈利同环 比下降。此外，积极看好公司海外业务分拆上市，有助于提升公司的国际影响力和全球市场竞 争力，进一步促进上市公司高质量发展。通过登陆香港资本市场能够拓宽公司融资渠道，加快 境外业务的发展，进而提升上市公司整体盈利能力。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 海大集团（002311.SZ） cjzqdt11111 陈佳 顾熀乾 王煜坤 SAC：S04 ...

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery sector is experiencing a downturn, with the first agricultural ETF (159275) declining by 1.31% as of market close on October 22, 2023 [1] Industry Analysis - The pig farming industry is facing significant capacity pressure, leading to widespread losses. Current prices for fat and piglets have dropped to yearly lows, suggesting a potential further decline in prices. Historical trends indicate that when both prices are low, the industry may initiate market-driven capacity reduction, which could support long-term price increases for pigs [3] - Despite the current challenges, there is an expectation of increased pig supply in the fourth quarter due to rising slaughter volumes and accelerated weight gain as temperatures drop. This has led to a stronger demand for meat, with pig prices stabilizing at psychological levels, easing the pressure on the breeding sector [3] - The valuation of the agricultural sector remains relatively low, presenting a favorable investment opportunity. As of October 22, 2023, the agricultural ETF's index price-to-book ratio stands at 2.57, placing it in the 29.3 percentile over the past decade, highlighting its mid- to long-term investment value [3] Investment Direction - Analysts are optimistic about the pig farming sector due to policy and market forces driving capacity reduction, which is expected to enhance long-term performance [4] - The agricultural sector plays a crucial role in food security, economic development, ecological balance, and social welfare. The traditional farming industry is undergoing significant supply-side reforms, which are likely to benefit large-scale farming enterprises. The domestic market concentration is increasing, and companies that have expanded into overseas markets are expected to gain a competitive edge [5] - The current upward trend in grain prices and favorable conditions in the planting and seed sectors indicate significant investment opportunities in these areas [6] ETF Overview - The agricultural ETF (159275) tracks the CSI Agricultural Index, with major holdings including leading companies in livestock, feed, and planting sectors. The top ten holdings account for over 90% of the index, focusing on agricultural breeding, feed, and planting industries [6]

Group 1 - The company Tangrenshen (SZ 002567) announced that its 10th Board of Directors' fourth meeting was held via telecommunication on October 22, 2025, where it reviewed proposals for joint investments with professional investment institutions [1] - For the first half of 2025, the revenue composition of Tangrenshen was as follows: feed industry accounted for 60.25%, pig breeding industry 34.1%, meat industry 5.58%, and animal health industry 0.06% [1] - As of the report date, Tangrenshen's market capitalization was 6.9 billion yuan [1]