新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-09 库存小幅去化，碳酸锂盘面下跌后小幅反弹 市场分析 2025年5月8日，碳酸锂主力合约2507开于63960元/吨，收于64280元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价收跌0.43%。当 日成交量为309284手，持仓量为267396手，较前一交易日减少9504手，根据SMM现货报价，目前期货贴水电碳970 元/吨。所有合约总持仓433977手，较前一交易日减少3011手。当日合约总成交量较前一交易日增加123069手，成 交量增加，整体投机度为0.88 。当日碳酸锂仓单36241手，较上个交易日减少3手。盘面：当日碳酸锂开盘偏弱， 空头短暂主导，尾盘拉升但缺乏持续性，最终收跌0.43%。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，2025年5月8日电池级碳酸锂报价6.35-6.7万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0.14万元/吨， 工业级碳酸锂报价6.31-6.41万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0.14万元/吨。周度产量增长至1.83万吨，环比增加3866吨， 周度库存小幅减少464吨至13.16万吨。碳酸锂现货成交价格重心持续大幅下移。在头部电芯厂客供比例进一步拉高 的情况下，下游材料厂采购意 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate-A" with a 6-month target price of 15.5 CNY per share [5]. Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 was 7.716 billion CNY, a decrease of 35% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 257 million CNY, an increase of 539% year-on-year [1]. - The company's ammonium nitrate and other raw material prices have decreased, contributing to the profitability of the civil explosives business, which saw a net profit of 691 million CNY in 2024, up 24.4% year-on-year [2]. - The lithium business faced challenges due to falling lithium prices, resulting in a combined net loss of approximately 500 million CNY for its subsidiaries in 2024 [3]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.537 billion CNY, a decrease of 14% quarter-on-quarter and 17% year-on-year, with a net profit of 82 million CNY, down 20% quarter-on-quarter but up 452% year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit for 2024 was 1.289 billion CNY, with the civil explosives sector contributing 1.233 billion CNY, a 14% increase year-on-year, while the lithium business reported a slight loss [1]. - The company expects revenues of 8.926 billion CNY, 10.800 billion CNY, and 11.181 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 738 million CNY, 950 million CNY, and 1.197 billion CNY [7]. Business Segment Insights - The civil explosives business is expanding its market presence and reducing costs, with a focus on overseas mining services, particularly in Zimbabwe and Australia [2]. - The lithium segment is seeing significant increases in production and sales volumes, with lithium salt production and sales reaching 48,300 tons and 48,000 tons respectively in 2024, up 55% and 63% year-on-year [3]. - The company is enhancing its self-sufficiency in lithium production with the Kamativi Phase II project, which is expected to further reduce reliance on external mineral purchases [3].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures market is experiencing significant price declines due to seasonal demand drops and insufficient capacity reduction, leading to oversupply in the industry [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - The lithium carbonate futures contract for May 8 hit a new low of 63,200 yuan per ton, approaching the cost line for integrated mining companies [1] - In 2024, domestic production of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and lithium chloride is projected to reach 701,000 tons, 414,000 tons, and 24,000 tons, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 35.35%, 29.54%, and 37.14% [3] - The average capacity utilization rate of 12 sample companies in the lithium sector was estimated at 65.4%, remaining at a relatively high historical level [1][3] Group 2: Company Performance - Among the 12 sample companies, only three, including Cangge Mining, are expected to see slight production declines, while the other nine are projected to increase output [1][3] - Companies like Ganfeng Lithium, Shengxin Lithium Energy, and Yahua Group are expected to see varying degrees of production increases [3] - Ganfeng Lithium's total lithium salt capacity is around 300,000 tons, but its actual utilization rate may only be about 56% when excluding recently completed projects [5] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite some Australian mines announcing production cuts, domestic lithium salt production continues to grow, outpacing demand growth, which complicates the supply-demand relationship [5] - The industry is still in a "tug-of-war" state without self-regulatory production cuts, unlike the steel and photovoltaic sectors [1] Group 4: Strategic Responses - Companies are adopting cost-reduction strategies in response to the "low lithium price era," with Ganfeng Lithium accelerating the development of low-cost salt lake projects [6][8] - Zhongmin Resources has diversified its operations to mitigate risks, planning to complete a copper mining project by 2026 [9][10] - Cangge Mining's net profit decline of only 24.6% in 2024 was significantly supported by investment income from its copper business, highlighting the benefits of diversification [9]

碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，2025年5月7日电池级碳酸锂报价6.525-6.805万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0.045万元/ 吨，工业级碳酸锂报价6.45-6.55万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0.04万元/吨。部分锂盐企业陆续检修或减产，周度产 量环比继续小幅下降，但整体来看，减产力度不及预期，碳酸锂产量仍处于高位，减产难以对供需过剩格局造成 实质性改变。工电价差进一步收窄，根据SMM调研，五一假期结束，上下游普遍处于观望态度，市场成交寥寥。 且在价格持续落入新低的趋势下，下游亦等待价格的进一步下探，持续观望。虽矿价也在同步下跌，但上游锂盐 厂的亏损程度并未有所好转，其碳酸锂出货意愿较差。当前更多是贸易商因担心后市，目前出货意愿较强。4月动 力终端需求表现较好，但部分储能订单受到一定影响，一方面是由于国内强制配储要求取消，另一方面是受到美 国增加关税导致的需求有小幅下滑。5月储能市场需求将继续受到美国关税政策和国内取消强制配储的影响，小幅 减量；但动力市场仍有较好表现，预计5月电芯排产整体保持增量，磷酸铁锂材料5月产量也将增加。 策略 整体来看，现货成交重心下移，带动矿价下跌，锂盐虽有检修，但矿端未见减产，过 ...

Group 1: Company Strategy and Product Development - The company emphasizes the development of ancient gold as a key direction, integrating traditional craftsmanship with modern design to create innovative products [1] - The company is expanding its children's jewelry product line in response to market opportunities from birth policies, enhancing brand promotion through collaborations and targeted advertising [2] - The company aims to improve its brand image and market competitiveness by leveraging traditional craftsmanship in its ancient gold products [1][2] Group 2: Financial Management and Risk Mitigation - The company has established a comprehensive risk management system for raw material procurement and inventory management, utilizing a "borrowed gold" model to optimize funding efficiency [3] - The company employs dynamic monitoring mechanisms to adjust gold inventory levels based on market trends and production needs, ensuring operational stability [3] - The company plans to acquire a 51% stake in Siterui Lithium Industry, which focuses on lithium salt products, to diversify its business portfolio [4] Group 3: Market Conditions and Performance - Recent increases in international gold prices have influenced the retail prices of gold jewelry, with the company adjusting prices in line with market conditions [2] - The company reports steady sales of gold jewelry, with some categories experiencing demand growth due to consumer upgrading trends [2] - The company acknowledges that Siterui Lithium Industry has faced losses due to falling lithium carbonate prices but is working on improving production processes and expanding capacity to enhance market competitiveness [5]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals and Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Daily Report [2] - Report Date: May 7, 2025 [2] - Author: Xu Liang [3] - Reviewer: Tang Yun [3] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 3. Core Views Precious Metals - Shanghai Gold (SHFE) showed a high - level oscillating and回调 trend. The appreciation of the RMB exchange rate offset part of the upward transmission effect of international gold prices, and the post - holiday decline in domestic physical consumption demand made SHFE gold weaker than overseas markets. With multiple factors in play, SHFE gold will maintain an oscillating pattern [4]. Copper - Copper prices are affected by macro, sentiment, and expectations. In the short term, the absolute price of copper is difficult to predict, but volatility will remain high [16]. Zinc - Given the supply and demand situation and weak macro data, zinc prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillating trend in the short term [35]. Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum is expected to oscillate in the short term. Alumina is likely to continue its weak performance due to an oversupply situation and bearish market sentiment [46]. Nickel - The nickel market remains stable in terms of fundamentals, with no significant changes in logic. The nickel market lacks obvious upward drivers [66]. Tin - Tin prices are expected to continue their narrow - range oscillation in the short term as the impact of macro factors on the fundamentals is not yet evident [80]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium salt prices are falling, and there is a risk of a spiral decline in ore and salt prices. Trade uncertainties may suppress long - term demand [91]. Silicon - With prices in the silicon industry chain falling, downstream polysilicon production cuts are more likely, and the supply side of industrial silicon is also showing signs of adjustment [99]. 4. Content Summary by Category Precious Metals - **Price Performance**: SHFE gold showed high - level oscillation and回调, affected by factors such as the RMB exchange rate and domestic consumption demand [4]. - **Influencing Factors**: The appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, post - holiday decline in domestic physical consumption demand, and multiple macro - factors contribute to the current situation of SHFE gold [4]. Copper - **Price Performance**: Copper prices are affected by multiple factors, and short - term volatility remains high. The latest prices of various copper contracts are provided, with daily price changes and percentage changes [16][17]. - **Influencing Factors**: Macro factors (US non - farm employment data and Sino - US tariff issues), market sentiment (disputes between bulls and bears), and policy expectations (upcoming financial policies) all impact copper prices [16]. Zinc - **Price Performance**: Zinc prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillating trend. The latest prices of various zinc contracts and related price differences are presented [35][36]. - **Influencing Factors**: Supply is expected to be loose due to the opening of the import window, and demand is supported by domestic policies but with unclear strength. Weak macro data also affects zinc prices [35]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Price Performance**: Aluminum is expected to oscillate, and alumina is likely to be weak. The latest prices of aluminum and alumina contracts are provided [46][47]. - **Influencing Factors**: For aluminum, macro factors and demand seasonality are key. For alumina, the supply of bauxite, production capacity changes, and market sentiment are important [46]. Nickel - **Price Performance**: The nickel market lacks upward drivers. The latest prices of nickel and stainless - steel contracts and related data are given [66][67]. - **Influencing Factors**: The slow release of nickel ore supply, the continuous decline in nickel - iron prices, and the weak stainless - steel market all contribute to the current situation [66]. Tin - **Price Performance**: Tin prices are in a narrow - range oscillation. The latest prices of tin contracts are provided [80]. - **Influencing Factors**: Uncertainty about Myanmar's复产 and the semiconductor industry cycle affect tin prices [80]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Performance**: Lithium salt prices are falling, and the market is cautious. The latest prices of lithium carbonate futures contracts and related price differences are presented [91]. - **Influencing Factors**: Market sentiment, cost - side changes, and trade uncertainties impact lithium carbonate prices [91]. Silicon - **Price Performance**: The prices of industrial silicon and related products in the silicon industry chain are falling. The latest prices of industrial silicon contracts and spot prices are provided [99][100]. - **Influencing Factors**: Expected production cuts in downstream polysilicon and supply - side adjustments in industrial silicon affect prices [99].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant decline in lithium carbonate futures prices, with the main contract falling below 65,000 yuan per ton, reaching a historical low, driven by a combination of factors including weak demand and oversupply in the market [1][2] - The spot prices for lithium carbonate have dropped across the board, with battery-grade lithium carbonate reported at 65,350 yuan per ton, down 600 yuan in a single day, and industrial-grade lithium carbonate at 64,100 yuan per ton, reflecting a broader downward trend in the industry [1] - The cost side is collapsing, as major domestic and international mines have not seen further production cuts, and first-quarter financial reports indicate a decline in costs, allowing for further price reductions in lithium salts [1][2] Group 2 - The supply-demand imbalance is deepening, with expectations of a month-on-month increase in domestic lithium carbonate production in May, while high inventory levels are suppressing price rebound potential [2] - The industry is undergoing a significant reshuffle, with prices below 70,000 yuan impacting the cost lines of many companies, leading to a focus on cash flow management and resource control as key survival strategies [2] - The technical outlook remains bearish, with price movements following a downward channel, and multiple institutions agree that under the pressures of collapsing costs, increased supply, and weak demand, lithium carbonate prices are likely to remain under pressure [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The overall sentiment in the commodity market is weak, and the lithium carbonate futures market has hit a new low. The current supply of lithium carbonate exceeds demand, and this situation is expected to continue. With the downward shift of the spot transaction center driving down ore prices, and no reduction in the mining end despite lithium salt maintenance, the lithium price may still have room to fall under the weak macro - sentiment and fundamental situation [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On May 6, 2025, the opening price of the lithium carbonate main contract 2505 was 65,980 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 65,260 yuan/ton, a 1.45% decrease from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 103,979 lots, and the open interest was 256,291 lots, an increase of 11,562 lots from the previous trading day. The total open interest of all contracts was 407,535 lots, a decrease of 3,011 lots from the previous day, and the total trading volume decreased by 17,431 lots. The overall speculation degree was 0.34. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 35,236 lots, an increase of 17,759 lots from the previous day [1]. Spot Market - According to SMM data, on May 6, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 65,700 - 68,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8,500 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 64,900 - 65,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8,000 yuan/ton from the previous day. Some lithium salt enterprises have carried out maintenance or production cuts, but the production reduction is less than expected, and the supply still exceeds demand. Although the downstream production schedule is rising, the procurement demand of downstream material factories has not improved significantly, and the spot market transactions are relatively sluggish [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Sell on rallies for hedging. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options or use bear spread options. No suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, and spot - futures operations [3].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the industry, predicting that the industry index will outperform the Shanghai Composite Index by 10% or more during the specified period [3]. Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the company reported net sales of $1.077 billion, a decrease of 20.87% compared to the same period last year, primarily due to a decline in energy storage product prices, although specialty product sales increased by 11% [1][4]. - The adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was $267 million, down from $291 million in Q1 2024, reflecting a decrease of $24 million [9]. - The company’s lithium salt sales volume was 44,000 tons in Q1 2025, down from 49,000 tons in the previous quarter, with net sales for lithium salts at $525 million, a year-over-year decline of 35% [4][5]. - The effective tax rate for Q1 2025 was 21.0%, significantly higher than 2.2% in the same quarter of 2024, influenced by changes in geographic income structure [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 net sales were $1.077 billion, down from $1.361 billion in Q1 2024, a decrease of 20.87% [1]. - Gross profit for Q1 2025 was $156 million, a significant increase of 301.4% year-over-year [1]. - Operating profit for Q1 2025 was $19.76 million, compared to a loss of $180 million in the same quarter last year [1]. Business Segment Performance - Lithium Salt Segment: Q1 2025 sales volume was 44,000 tons, with net sales of $525 million, reflecting a 35% year-over-year decline [4]. - Specialty Products: Q1 2025 net sales were $321 million, a 2% increase year-over-year, driven by an 11% increase in sales volume [5]. - Ketjen Segment: Q1 2025 net sales were $231 million, a 5% decrease year-over-year, with an adjusted EBITDA of $39 million, up 1700% from the previous year [6]. 2025 Outlook - The company expects capital expenditures for 2025 to be between $700 million and $800 million, a reduction of over 50% from 2024 [7]. - The projected lithium salt production for 2025 is expected to grow between 0% to 10% compared to 2024, with a focus on maintaining existing assets and selective growth projects [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is reported at 7.72 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 35.1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is 0.26 billion, showing a significant increase of 539.6% [1][5]. - The stable contribution from the civil explosives business is noted, while the lithium salt business is impacted by falling lithium prices [2][3]. - The company has significant potential with its own lithium mining capacity expected to ramp up, alongside ongoing expansion in lithium salt production [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 77.2 billion, down 35.1% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.6 billion, up 539.6% year-on-year [1]. - For Q4 2024, revenue was 17.9 billion, a decrease of 26.1% year-on-year, while net profit was 1.0 billion, showing a turnaround from losses [1]. - In Q1 2025, revenue was 15.4 billion, down 17.0% year-on-year, but net profit increased to 0.8 billion, up 446.7% year-on-year [1]. Business Segments - The civil explosives business generated revenue of 32.6 billion in 2024, a decline of 4.0% year-on-year, but net profit for Q1 2025 increased by 23.5% [2]. - Lithium salt sales volume in 2024 reached 48,000 tons, up 63.4% year-on-year, but revenue fell to 41.2 billion, down 50.4% due to price declines [2]. Growth Potential - The company has established its own lithium mining operations in Zimbabwe and Namibia, with significant production capacity expected to come online [3]. - The lithium salt production capacity is projected to expand to nearly 130,000 tons by the end of 2025, with key customers including Tesla and CATL [3]. - The overseas mining service business is anticipated to grow, leveraging cost advantages in civil explosives [3]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is 5.5 billion for 2025, 8.5 billion for 2026, and 10.6 billion for 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 24, 15, and 12 [5][9].