（来源：吴说） 沃什曾于 2006–2011 年担任美联储理事，并曾代表美联储参与 G20 事务；此前还在白宫国家经济委员 会任职，并在摩根士丹利从事投行业务。目前，沃什为胡佛研究所访问学者、斯坦福大学商学院讲师， 并任职于杜肯家族办公室。Kevin Warsh 曾是加密项目 Basis 的早期投资人之一，并任加密风投机构 Electric Capital 的顾问。 3.香港加快完善虚拟资产与稳定币监管框架 香港财库局局长许正宇表示，香港持续推进虚拟资产监管。《稳定币条例》已生效，金管局正处理法币 稳定币发行人牌照申请；虚拟资产交易、托管、顾问及管理服务的监管制度将于今年内提交立法会。政 府亦计划落实 OECD 加密资产申报框架，预计 2028 年起开展跨境税务信息自动交换。 1.美国公布 2025 年 12 月最终需求 PPI 环比上涨 0.5% 美国公布 2025 年 12 月最终需求 PPI 环比上涨 0.5%，高于 11 月的 0.2% 和 10 月的 0.1%。其中，最终 需求服务价格环比上涨 0.7%，为主要推动因素，最终需求商品价格环比持平。剔除食品、能源和贸易 服务后的核心 PPI 环比上涨 ...

Core Viewpoint - The defensive position of the US dollar is facing significant challenges as the current US government adopts a more laissez-faire stance on the dollar's exchange rate, leading to substantial fluctuations in the dollar index (DXY) which recently dropped 125 basis points to around 95.8, the lowest level since early 2022 [1][2] Group 1: Dollar and Market Dynamics - The recent policy direction has injected strong momentum into safe-haven assets, resulting in a nearly frenzied rise in gold and silver prices at the end of January [1][2] - The dollar's decline, combined with strategic accumulation by institutions like Tether, forms the underlying logic for the gold and silver bull market at the beginning of 2026 [4] Group 2: Gold and Silver Market Trends - Gold prices have surged to $5,250 per ounce, while silver has reached $115 per ounce, underscoring the irreplaceable safe-haven attributes of precious metals in the current uncertain environment [4] - Tether significantly increased its gold holdings by approximately 27 tons in Q4 2025, raising its total reserves to about 104 tons, indicating a shift in demand driven by crypto asset giants [3] - The market for tokenized gold assets (XAUT) has surpassed $2.3 billion, while the market cap for the mainstream stablecoin USDT has exceeded $180 billion, altering the pricing dynamics of precious metals [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate range at 3.5% to 3.75% during the January meeting, aligning with market expectations, and is not expected to reopen the rate cut window until June, creating a "policy vacuum" that supports gold and silver prices [4] - Investors are advised to closely monitor future government statements regarding exchange rates and the anticipated interest rate cuts in June, as the volatility of precious metal assets is expected to remain high during the dollar's bottoming process [4]

Market Overview - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant downturn, with the total market capitalization shrinking to approximately $2.82 trillion, reflecting a 5.11% decline over 24 hours, and a trading volume of about $70 billion [1] - Bitcoin fell over 5%, dropping below the $85,000 mark, while other major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and SOL saw declines exceeding 6% [1] - Over 227,000 traders faced liquidation, with a total liquidation amount of approximately $1.014 billion [1] - The Fear and Greed Index plunged to 16, indicating "extreme fear" among investors, leading to widespread sell-offs [1] Fundamental Analysis - Bitcoin (BTC) faces short-term collapse pressure, with economic risks in the U.S. and over $500 million in liquidations resulting in a market cap loss of about $10 billion [3] - There was a net outflow of $11.37 million from ETFs, indicating a slowdown in institutional demand, although long-term holders are increasing supply, providing some buffer [3] - Ethereum (ETH) shows weak fundamentals, with a rise in active addresses but a slowdown in DeFi and Real World Asset (RWA) adoption; staking withdrawals have cleared, and institutional staking reached $170 million [3] Policy Environment - Uncertainty in the policy landscape has increased, as the Federal Reserve announced on January 28 to maintain interest rates, aligning with expectations [4] - The focus is shifting to the new Fed chair and the 2026 policy outlook, amid geopolitical risks, such as fears of Trump attacking Iran, which are causing market anxiety [4] - There is a risk of a U.S. government shutdown, as federal funding is set to expire on January 30, which could exacerbate market volatility if Congress fails to pass a new budget [4] Technical Analysis - Bitcoin is currently consolidating around $83,000, having touched a low of approximately $81,000 earlier in the day before rebounding [5] - The cryptocurrency is in a downward trend on a weekly basis, with short-term support at the $80,000 level; a drop below this could see it fall to the $76,000 mark, a previous strong support level [5] - For Ethereum, a drop below $2,600 could lead to a decline towards the $2,000 level [5] Operational Strategy - The recommended approach is to focus on defense and observation, waiting for market panic to subside and clearer stabilization signals to emerge [7] - Short-term trading for Bitcoin can be considered within the $81,000 to $86,000 range, while Ethereum can be traded between $2,600 and $2,800, with a strict position control of 10% and proper stop-loss measures [7]

2.次要原因：市场预期美联储将收紧货币政策，以及市场普遍疲软，尤其是人工智能和 Layer 1 代币，导致抛售压力增加。 3.短期市场展望：如果市场能够守住 2.42 万亿美元的年度低点附近，则市场可能会保持稳定；然而，美联储的言论或 ETF 资金外流可能会重新引发宏观 经济担忧。 爆仓警报： 过去24小时内，加密货币市场下跌5.7%，市值较昨天降了0.17万亿美元。该市场与标普500指数（相关性72%）和黄金（相关性90%）高度相关，表明其 受到共同宏观经济因素的影响。详细下跌原因： 1.主要原因： 大额清算浪潮引发了快速抛售，加剧了跌势，尤其是在多头头寸占主导地位的环境下。 过去24小时全网共有266,915人被被爆仓，爆仓总金额为$16.82亿美元，多单爆仓15.68亿美元，空单爆仓1.41亿美元。 崩盘了，2天暴跌1万点 走势完全超出预期，日线关键位置也破了，所以尊重市场事实。这时候重仓扛单根本扛不住，谁来都没用！一定要做好止损，止损就是花小钱买的后悔 药，别等亏了才追悔莫及，毕竟再怎么劝，也救不了心存侥幸的人。 主流币表现： 1.比特币（BTC）：价格约82213，24小时跌6.96% 今日关注 8 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee has advanced a bill to establish a federal regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies, indicating potential challenges for its passage in the full Senate due to partisan voting dynamics [1]. Group 1: Legislative Progress - The bill aims to grant the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) authority to regulate the spot cryptocurrency market and set rules for digital commodity exchanges, brokers, and dealers [1]. - The House of Representatives passed a version of the bill in July of the previous year [2]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - The bill requires support from at least seven Democratic senators to pass in the full Senate, but some Democrats express concerns over the lack of provisions to prevent political officials from profiting from cryptocurrency speculation [3]. - No Democratic members of the Senate Agriculture Committee supported the bill during the vote, highlighting the partisan divide [3]. Group 3: Industry Implications - The cryptocurrency industry views the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill as strategically significant for its future, providing essential legal certainty for business operations and serving as a foundation for a compliant digital asset ecosystem [1]. - The industry is investing heavily in supporting pro-cryptocurrency candidates in the 2024 election cycle to facilitate the passage of this landmark legislation [1].

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Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency sector is experiencing significant declines, with major stocks and digital assets facing substantial losses due to market pressures and a drop in Bitcoin prices [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the report, cryptocurrency-related stocks are among the biggest losers, with Blueking Interactive (08267) down 5.56% to HKD 0.34, Oko Cloud Chain (01499) down 2.13% to HKD 0.184, and OSL Group (00863) down 1.41% to HKD 16.76 [1] - On January 29, Bitcoin's price fell below USD 85,000 for the first time in two months, dropping as much as 6.8% to a low of USD 83,240, the lowest level since November 21 of the previous year [1] - Ethereum, Dogecoin, Cardano, and Solana all experienced declines of at least 7% [1] - On January 30, Bitcoin continued to decline, approaching USD 81,000 with a daily drop exceeding 4% [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Chris Newhouse, the business development director at Ergonia, noted that the weak performance highlights the positioning of crypto assets in the market, often acting as a "leveraged amplifier" for traditional risk assets [1] - The ongoing pressure on tech stocks has further amplified the overall selling sentiment in the digital asset market [1] - Excessive leverage in long positions has led to a cleansing effect, creating mechanical selling pressure that exacerbates the already fragile market conditions [1]

Market Overview - The global financial markets experienced significant volatility, with gold and silver prices dropping sharply after reaching historical highs, with maximum intraday declines of over 5% and 8% respectively [1][9][10] - The U.S. stock market also faced turbulence, with the Nasdaq index plunging 2.6% at one point before closing down 0.72% [2][11] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market saw a major sell-off, with Bitcoin dropping over 5% to below $85,000, while Ethereum and other altcoins experienced declines exceeding 6% [3][6] - Cryptocurrency-related stocks also suffered, with Strategy stock falling over 9% and Coinbase Global down more than 4% [5] Gold and Silver Market - Gold prices experienced a sharp decline, falling from a peak of $5,600 per ounce to $5,105.83, marking a maximum drop of 5.7% before rebounding [9] - Silver prices also fell from a historical high of $121.67 per ounce to $106.80, with a maximum intraday decline of 8.5% [9] Investor Sentiment - There is a growing skepticism regarding Bitcoin's status as a macro hedge, as it has underperformed compared to gold and silver despite rising geopolitical tensions [6][7] - Recent data indicates that Bitcoin holders have entered a loss realization phase for the first time in 2023, suggesting a decline in investor confidence [6] Corporate Earnings Impact - Microsoft shares plummeted nearly 12% during trading after reporting a slowdown in cloud business growth, impacting the software sector significantly [11][12] - Other tech stocks reacted variably, with Meta seeing a 10.4% increase after announcing substantial capital expenditure plans, while other companies like ServiceNow and SAP faced declines [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing significant sell-offs, with Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies seeing substantial declines, leading to a shift in investor sentiment towards traditional assets like gold [3][5][9]. Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin fell over 5%, dropping below $85,000 to $84,425, while Ethereum and Dogecoin also saw declines exceeding 6% [5]. - In the last 24 hours, over 227,939 traders were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $1.014 billion (approximately 70.5 billion RMB) [7]. - Tether's CEO announced plans to allocate 10% to 15% of their investment portfolio into physical gold, indicating a shift in investment strategy [7]. - Bitcoin holders have entered a loss realization phase for the first time in 2023, suggesting a decline in investor confidence [8]. Precious Metals Market - Gold and silver prices experienced extreme volatility, with gold prices dropping over $400 before recovering some losses, ultimately closing at $5,377.4 per ounce, a 0.69% decrease [12][14]. - Silver prices fell from a historical high of $121.67 per ounce to $115.87, marking a maximum drop of 8.5% [13]. - Analysts attribute the sharp decline in precious metals to profit-taking after recent price highs [14]. Stock Market - The U.S. stock market faced turbulence, with the Nasdaq Composite index dropping 2.6% at one point, ultimately closing down 0.72% [4][14]. - Microsoft shares plummeted nearly 12% during trading after reporting a slowdown in cloud business growth, impacting the software sector significantly [14]. - In contrast, Meta's shares rose 10.4% following its earnings report, which indicated a significant increase in expected capital expenditures [15]. Investor Sentiment - There is growing skepticism regarding Bitcoin's role as a macro hedge, especially as it underperforms compared to gold and silver [9][10]. - The overall market sentiment is shifting, with long-term Bitcoin believers moving towards precious metals and equities as safer investments [7][9].

Core Viewpoint - Tether Holdings SA has become a significant player in the gold market, holding approximately 140 tons of gold valued at around $24 billion, making it the largest gold holder outside of governments and central banks [4][10]. Group 1: Gold Acquisition Strategy - Tether is purchasing physical gold at a rate of up to two tons per week, which translates to over $1 billion in gold purchases each month [5][10]. - The gold is stored in a highly secure former nuclear bunker in Switzerland, which is one of the most active facilities for gold storage [7][10]. - The company is exploring ways to improve the efficiency of its gold purchasing process due to the large quantities involved [8]. Group 2: Market Impact and Position - Tether's gold purchases have reportedly contributed to a 65% increase in gold prices over the past year, with the current price exceeding $5,300 per ounce [11][21]. - The company has surpassed countries like Greece, Qatar, and Australia in gold acquisition speed, indicating its growing influence in the market [12]. - Tether's CEO compares the company's role in the gold market to that of a central bank, predicting that geopolitical rivals will introduce gold-backed alternatives to the dollar [15][16]. Group 3: Product Development and Future Plans - Tether is developing a gold-backed token, Tether Gold (XAUT), which has already issued tokens equivalent to approximately 16 tons of gold, valued at $2.7 billion [26]. - The market circulation of XAUT is projected to reach between $5 billion to $10 billion by the end of the year, potentially requiring additional gold purchases [26][29]. - The company aims to establish itself as a competitive player in gold trading, seeking to leverage market inefficiencies for profit [24][25].