Group 1 - The first batch of tariff measures has been in effect for six months, leading to a significant increase in the actual tariff rate in the U.S. from approximately 2.5% to nearly 20% [2] - Seven countries and regions are currently negotiating trade arrangements with the U.S., accounting for over a quarter of U.S. imports, with tariff rates fluctuating between 15% and 20% [2] - The U.S. has agreed to differentiated tariff reductions based on Section 232 reviews, with the U.K. receiving special treatment in the steel and aluminum sectors, maintaining a 25% tariff while others face 50% [2] Group 2 - The EU has announced a 15% tariff on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, which is expected to be lower than the final tariff levels for these industries [3] - The EU's adjustments are significant as it is projected to account for 62% of U.S. imports in the pharmaceutical sector by 2024 [3] - The trade agreements with the U.S. involve over a trillion dollars in investment intentions across various sectors, although specific details remain unclear [3] Group 3 - The silver T+D market showed a fluctuating upward trend, closing at 9183 yuan/kg, with a daily high of 9224 yuan/kg and a low of 9124 yuan/kg [1][4] - Resistance levels for silver T+D are noted at 9224-9300, while support levels are identified at 9000-9124 [4]

晨会纪要（2025/08/25） 编辑人 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.08.25） 宏观及策略研究 地缘局势阶段性缓和——宏观经济周报 固定收益研究 债市持续走弱——利率债周报 公司研究 费用率上升压制半年度业绩，直营渠道表现亮眼——森马服饰（002563）2025 年半年报点评 行业研究 证 业绩密集披露，关注超预期标的——医药生物行业周报 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 晨会纪要（2025/08/25） 宏观及策略研究 地缘局势阶段性缓和——宏观经济周报 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 1、外围环境而言 美国方面，7 月整体零售销售环比增速维持强劲态势，其中多数商品销售在线上线下促销推动下实现增长。 与此同时，纳 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market has shown strong performance, breaking through last year's high, with expectations for continued upward movement supported by reasonable valuations and new positive factors such as a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and a recovery in public fund issuance [2][3] - The weighted REITs index has decreased by 1.52% during the week of August 18-22, 2025, indicating a downward trend in the secondary market prices of publicly listed REITs [2] Credit Bonds - A total of 375 credit bonds were issued from August 18 to August 22, 2025, with a total issuance scale of 376.74 billion, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 12.45% [3] - The total transaction volume of credit bonds reached 1,286.40 billion, up 16.04% week-on-week, with commercial bank bonds, corporate bonds, and medium-term notes being the top three in transaction volume [3] Convertible Bonds - The CSI Convertible Bond Index increased by 2.8% during the week, with a year-to-date increase of 17.9%, slightly below the equity market performance [4] - Current valuations of convertible bonds are close to or exceed historical highs, yet the equity market remains robust, suggesting continued strong performance in the convertible bond market [4] High-end Manufacturing - Exports of engineering machinery maintained double-digit growth, with excavators, tractors, and mining machinery showing year-on-year increases of 24%, 30%, and 25% respectively [6] - The report suggests focusing on companies like QuanFeng Holdings, JuXing Technology, and Xugong Machinery due to their strong export performance [6] TMT Sector - The company SUTENG has seen rapid growth in its robotics business, indicating a successful strategic transformation [6] - The report highlights the importance of SUTENG's self-research technology and its competitive advantages in the ADAS and robotics ecosystem [6] Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - The report notes a slight decline in pig prices, with the average price of live pigs at 13.75 yuan/kg, down 0.07% week-on-week [6] - The government has initiated pork storage measures to boost market sentiment, suggesting a potential recovery in pig prices [6] Medical and Biological Sector - The report recommends increasing allocations to the medical device sector, highlighting undervalued companies in Hong Kong and those with strong growth potential [7] - Companies like Weikang Medical and Mindray Medical are noted for their robust growth and research capabilities [7] Petrochemical Sector - The report indicates a significant market opportunity for the renovation of old refineries, with companies like Sinopec Engineering and PetroChina Engineering expected to benefit [7] - The report emphasizes the trend of "de-involution" in the refining industry, which may lead to a substantial market for dismantling and renovation [7] Basic Chemicals - The second phase of phosphate fertilizer export quotas has been allocated, with leading companies expected to benefit from high overseas prices [7] - The report anticipates continued high demand for high-grade phosphate rock in the short to medium term [7] Non-Banking Financials - AIA Insurance has seen new business value reach new highs, with stable growth in operating profits [10] - The report adjusts profit forecasts for AIA for 2025-2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [10] Real Estate - The property management sector shows steady growth, with a stable dividend outlook from companies like Yuexiu Services [10] - The report notes a slight decline in net profit but maintains a positive outlook due to strong project delivery from related companies [10] Electric New Energy - The report highlights the growth potential in the energy storage battery sector, with companies like Yiwei Lithium Energy expected to benefit from increased demand [24] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025, reflecting a strong competitive position in the market [24] Textile and Apparel - The report indicates a decline in profit margins for companies like Li Ning, despite revenue growth [34] - The company is expected to maintain a strong brand presence, with a "buy" rating maintained [34]

Group 1 - The 2025 Health China Medical Health Industry Conference opened in Shenyang on August 22, focusing on the theme "Shared Health, Innovative Openness" to address public health needs and promote industry collaboration [1][4] - The conference aims to create a national communication platform, particularly fostering collaboration between the pharmaceutical, manufacturing, digital industries, and healthcare sectors in Northeast China [4] - Liaoning Province has made significant progress in integrating health services with the health industry, achieving an industrial scale of over 50 billion yuan in the biopharmaceutical and advanced medical equipment sectors in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 10% [4] Group 2 - The conference featured one main meeting and eleven parallel thematic sessions covering various topics such as health weight management, traditional Chinese medicine development, clinical discipline development, and health promotion [5] - Special exhibition areas were set up for medical institutions, medical device and pharmaceutical companies, and traditional Chinese medicine health services, facilitating efficient communication and value creation within the industry [7] - The conference released the "Liaoning Province Biopharmaceutical and Medical Equipment Industry Investment Guide (2025 Edition)," showcasing the overall development of the biopharmaceutical industry in Liaoning and listing 93 benchmark enterprises with key competitive advantages [4]

金融工程 证 券 研 究 报 告 市场形态周报（20250818-20250822） 本周指数普遍上涨 ❖ 本周市场回顾与最新信号 从本周的指数表现来看，本周指数普遍上涨，其中沪深 300 上涨 4.18%，中证 500 上涨 3.87%，中证 1000 上涨 3.45%。 当前，上证 50 的隐含波动率为 20.3%，相对于上周上涨了 2.93%。上证 500 的 隐含波动率为 22.36%，相对于上周上涨了 2.82%。中证 1000 的隐含波动率为 25.91%，相对于上周上涨了 4.86%。沪深 300 的隐含波动率为 19.21%，相对 于上周上涨了 1.12%。 我们统计了最近信号的次数和胜率。2025 年 8 月 11 日到 2025 年 8 月 15 日正 面信号共出现了 3365 次，未来高点平均胜率为 70.33%，负面信号出现 3167 次，未来低点平均胜率为 27.82%。 从宽基择时策略来看，沪深 300、上证综指、万得微盘股指数、中证 2000、中 证 1000、国证 2000、中证 800、Wind 全 A、中证 500、上证 50、创业板指、 恒生可持续发展企业指数、恒生指数、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company's performance is under short-term pressure due to strategic adjustments, with a decline in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.79 billion yuan, down 7.05% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 108 million yuan, down 15.16% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 914 million yuan, a decrease of 11.72% year-on-year, and a net profit of 57 million yuan, down 16.07% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Cosmetics Segment - The cosmetics segment generated revenue of 568 million yuan in Q2 2025, down 11.5% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 62.85%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The Yilian brand achieved revenue of 304 million yuan in Q2, up 23.08% year-on-year, benefiting from successful marketing activities [1] - The Ai'er Doctor brand reported revenue of 215 million yuan in Q2, down 38.75% year-on-year, currently undergoing a strategic adjustment [1] - The new brand Kemi performed well, with sales of collagen products exceeding 14 million yuan in the first half of the year [1] Group 3: Pharmaceutical Segment - The pharmaceutical segment's revenue in Q2 2025 was 99 million yuan, down 24.4% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 48.53%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [2] Group 4: Raw Materials and Additives Segment - The raw materials and additives segment achieved revenue of 93 million yuan in Q2 2025, up 5.3% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 42.22%, down 6.2 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The growth in this segment was driven by product structure optimization, while the decline in gross margin was due to intensified industry competition [3] - The hyaluronic acid raw material business generated revenue of 116 million yuan in the first half of the year, up 23.4% year-on-year, with high-margin pharmaceutical-grade hyaluronic acid sales increasing significantly [3] Group 5: Overall Financial Metrics - In Q2 2025, the company's gross margin and net profit margin were 53.35% and 7.80%, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 0.60 percentage points and a decrease of 0.24 percentage points [3] - The overall expense ratio increased due to revenue pressure, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios rising year-on-year [3] - The company's operational capability and cash flow remained stable [3]

Group 1: Company Performance - Xiaogoods City reported optimistic expectations for export growth in the second half of the year, with commercial leasing and apartment rental preparations underway [1] - Babi Food achieved a revenue of 835 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.31%, and a net profit of 132 million yuan, up 18.08% [2] - OptoTech's revenue reached 682.56 million yuan in the first half of 2025, growing by 30.68%, with a net profit of 145.99 million yuan, up 28.80% [3] - Weicai Technology's overall capacity utilization reached 90% in the first half of 2025, with expectations of near full production by September [4] - Zhongmin Resources reported a revenue of 3.27 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 34.89% increase, but net profit fell by 81.16% to 89.13 million yuan [5] Group 2: Industry Trends - The Mini LED industry is experiencing increased penetration due to stable market demand and significant cost reductions, benefiting companies like Xinyi Chang [6] - The machine vision industry is projected to exceed 21 billion yuan in market size by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 20% from 2024 to 2028 [7] - The AI computing demand is rapidly growing, driven by investments in AI, with companies like Hongxin Electronics actively participating in this trend [8] Group 3: Strategic Developments - Babi Food is expanding its business through store model optimization, mergers and acquisitions, and group meal business development [2] - OptoTech is actively exploring overseas markets and establishing partnerships to enhance its market presence [3] - Zhongmin Resources is focusing on deepening its resource and cost advantages in the lithium battery new energy sector [5]

Group 1 - The AI sector has seen a significant turnaround in fund performance, with many funds that previously underperformed now achieving impressive returns in a short period [1][2][4] - As of August 24, the top 20 performing funds in the last three months are all from the AI computing sector, with returns exceeding 70%, and the highest reaching 111% [2][3] - The shift in market focus from pharmaceuticals to AI has been marked, with funds that were previously struggling now experiencing substantial gains [3][5] Group 2 - The AI sector's resurgence is attributed to a rotation in market themes, with the pharmaceutical sector cooling down and AI gaining traction [4][5] - The China Securities AI Index has increased by 35% since July 1, indicating a strong recovery in the AI sector [5] - Factors driving the strong performance in the AI computing sector include increased capital expenditure from major cloud providers, advancements in AI models, and robust demand across the supply chain [6] Group 3 - Investment strategies in the AI sector are focusing on computing power, with expectations for accelerated demand as application scenarios become more prevalent [5][6] - Key areas of investment include GPU and ASIC chips, optical modules, and AI servers, which are anticipated to benefit from the growing demand for computing power [6] - The domestic semiconductor industry is expected to gain from the AI sector's growth, with opportunities arising from open-source models supporting local chip manufacturers [6]

Group 1 - QFI (Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors) has been actively involved in the A-share market, with 263 companies having QFI listed among their top ten shareholders as of the end of Q2 [1][2][3] - Notable companies with significant foreign holdings include Shengyi Technology, China XD Electric, and Oriental Yuhong, each with over 10 million shares held by foreign investors [1][3] - Major foreign institutions such as Barclays, UBS, and Goldman Sachs have increased their positions in several A-shares, indicating a strong interest in the market [2][4] Group 2 - Foreign institutional research activity remains high, with a total of 5,644 A-share company investigations conducted by foreign entities this year, covering 4,695 different stocks [5][6] - Point72 Asset Management leads the foreign research efforts with 157 investigations, focusing on companies like Xiaogoods City, Huali Group, and Optoelectronics [5][6] - Companies such as Huichuan Technology and Mindray Medical have attracted significant attention, with over 500 and 299 foreign institution investigations, respectively [6] Group 3 - Morgan Stanley Fund expresses optimism about three key investment directions: technology growth sectors like AI and semiconductors, high-quality enterprises in Chinese manufacturing, and new consumer sectors with strong domestic and international performance [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the cyclical nature of the A-share market, highlighting the similarities and differences between past market conditions (2013-2017) and the current situation (2023-2024), emphasizing the importance of fundamental recovery for future market performance [2][6][9]. Group 1: Market Trends and Historical Context - In 2015, the A-share market experienced a significant rise due to loose control over leveraged investments, with the index soaring from around 2000 points to over 8000 points, followed by a sharp decline in the second half of the year [2]. - The period from 2016 to 2017 saw a recovery in the fundamentals of A-share listed companies, leading to a slow bull market for value stocks, which outperformed after a period of underperformance [3][4]. - The market dynamics from 2013 to 2017 included phases where large-cap, small-cap, growth, and value stocks all had their moments, but many investors suffered losses due to chasing trends [5]. Group 2: Current Market Conditions and Future Outlook - The current market environment in 2023-2024 is characterized by low fundamentals and declining corporate profits, similar to the conditions seen in 2015-2016 [6][9]. - With the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut in September 2024, and corresponding domestic policies, the market is expected to see an initial rise, particularly in sectors like securities and insurance [8]. - By 2025, growth sectors such as small-cap, technology, and pharmaceuticals are anticipated to lead the market, while value and consumer sectors may remain subdued [8]. - The potential for a market uptrend hinges on the recovery of corporate fundamentals, with historical precedents suggesting that economic recovery can lead to significant market rallies [9].