临近年末，商圈促销等持续引发人们的消费热情。 特约评论员熊夏柠 临近年末，各地文旅消费火热，一些一线城市的演唱会经济火爆。有的城市积极提振内需、发放消费券也如火如荼，电商平台频推跨年促销， 汽车与家电以旧换新、商圈促销等持续引发人们的消费热情。 近日召开的中央经济工作会议提出，坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场。深入实施提振消费专项行动，制定实施城乡居民增收计划。扩大优质 商品和服务供给。优化"两新"政策实施。清理消费领域不合理限制措施，释放服务消费潜力。 坚持惠民生和促消费、投资于物和投资于人紧密结合，以新需求引领新供给，以新供给创造新需求。 可以说，提振内需的部署十分完备，消费已经成为拉动我国经济的重要组成部分。近年来在一系列精准施策之下，消费势头不断向好。服务消 费呈持续回升态势，前11个月服务零售额同比增长5.4%，连续3个月回升。 目前，大宗消费、服务消费、新型消费等领域的带动作用明显。大宗消费在以旧换新政策的支持下，已经带动了显著的消费增量，目前以旧换 新还正在不断扩围。服务消费也不断扩容，尤其是在我国正在构建生育友好型社会、增加文旅体供给、高端医疗等政策背景下，促进服务消费 如虎添翼。另外，新型消费 ...

Core Viewpoint - The joint issuance of the "Notice on Strengthening Business and Financial Coordination to Boost Consumption" by the Ministry of Commerce, the People's Bank of China, and the Financial Regulatory Bureau aims to enhance consumer spending through 11 policy measures, aligning with the central economic work meeting's focus on domestic demand and market expansion [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Framework - The "Notice" establishes a collaborative framework at the ministerial level to break down departmental barriers, aiming for a synergistic effect in promoting consumption [1]. - It emphasizes the need for local governments to create coordination mechanisms to ensure policy alignment and information sharing, encouraging the development of special plans that combine fiscal, business, and financial strategies [1][2]. Group 2: Focus Areas for Support - The policies target the entire consumption chain and new business models, including support for trade-in programs for automobiles and the integration of domestic and foreign trade [2]. - In the service consumption sector, a "1+N" policy system is introduced, utilizing targeted incentives through service consumption and elderly care refinancing tools [2]. - The new consumption models, particularly those integrating artificial intelligence and intellectual property, are prioritized to expand consumer engagement [2]. Group 3: Financial Product and Service Innovation - The "Notice" encourages financial institutions to develop digital, inclusive, and convenient business models, particularly for online channels and rural markets [2][3]. - It promotes the optimization of payment services, including installment payments and digital currency options, to enhance consumer convenience [2]. Group 4: Implementation and Coordination - The "Notice" stresses the importance of efficient collaboration among government, financial institutions, and businesses to ensure effective policy execution [3][4]. - Local business departments are tasked with creating lists of key consumption projects to share with financial institutions, facilitating better communication and support [3][4]. Group 5: Role of Local Governments and Financial Institutions - Local governments are encouraged to integrate various policies, establish risk compensation funds, and amplify the effects of financial policies [4]. - Financial institutions are expected to take a leading role in innovation and service delivery, developing tailored products for specific sectors like automotive and home appliances [3][4]. Group 6: Overall Strategy - The core themes of "coordination" and "downward penetration" are highlighted as essential for delivering policy benefits through specific financial products and services to meet the needs of businesses and consumers [5].

21世纪经济研究院 研究员 李果 近期，广东、浙江、福建、陕西、山东、湖北、辽宁、黑龙江、四川等地陆续公布了地方版"国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建 议"（以下简称"十五五"规划建议）。 提振消费、挖掘消费潜力成为这些地区"十五五"时期的重点工作之一，培育建设国际消费中心城市也继续获得重视，不少地区还公布了在"十 五五"时期重点支持培育的城市名单。 比如，广东"十五五"规划建议提出，"支持广州、深圳等建设国际消费中心城市和区域消费中心城市"，湖北提出"支持武汉打造国际消费中心 城市"，山东提出"支持济南、青岛对标建设国际消费中心城市，培育区域性消费中心城市和特色消费中心"。 可以看出，在培育建设国际消费中心城市上，多数地区重点支持的城市仅1-2座，但浙江"十五五"规划建议中，明确提出"支持杭州、宁波、温 州争创国际消费中心城市"。纵览全国，浙江很可能是"十五五"时期重点支持城市数量最多的一个省。 这里有两方面的问题值得探讨： 一是与杭州、宁波相比，温州的入选颇有意外，温州在近年来做对了哪些事？ 二是浙江省为什么要在"十五五"中选择三座城市进行国际消费上的重点培育？ 而如果搞清楚了这两个问题，就能看懂温州 ...

Group 1: Macro and Asset Performance - In November, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.0%, the CSI 300 dropped by 4.0%, the ChiNext Index decreased by 8.4%, and the STAR 50 Index declined by 9.2% [1][11] - The bond market experienced a slight decline, with an overall drop of 0.1%, and government bond yields increased, with 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year yields rising by 1.8bp, 2.5bp, and 2.1bp respectively [1][21] - The Hang Seng Index fell by 2.7%, and major US stock indices also saw declines, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 dropping by 2.8%, 6.1%, and 3.5% respectively [1][21] Group 2: A-Share Market Outlook - The central economic work conference in December is crucial for setting the tone for 2026 economic policies, which could lead to an independent market trend if macro and industrial policies exceed expectations [1][22] - The market is currently in a phase of consolidation without a clear main line, with recommendations to focus on the aviation sector, new consumption, and undervalued banking stocks [2][23] - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from supply-side constraints and policy guidance, leading to improved profitability alongside low oil prices [2][23] Group 3: Bond Market Strategy - The overall outlook for government bond yields suggests a continued upward trend, influenced by domestic fundamentals and policy fluctuations [3][24] - The upcoming central economic work conference is anticipated to have a significant impact on interest rates, as yields typically price in next year's policies [3][26] - Despite a weak economic backdrop, the 10-year government bond yield is expected to maintain a strong position, rising from 1.79% to around 1.82% [3][29]

Core Insights - The consumer market in October showed steady growth, driven by the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, with total retail sales of consumer goods reaching 4.63 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [1] - From January to October, total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 41.2 trillion yuan, growing by 4.3%, which is 0.8 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1] Group 1: Goods Consumption - Retail sales of goods increased by 2.8% in October, with significant growth in sales of trade-in related products, including communication equipment, cultural office supplies, and furniture, which grew by 23.2%, 13.5%, and 9.6% respectively [1] - Basic living goods saw rapid consumption growth, with retail sales of grain and oil food and clothing and footwear increasing by 9.1% and 6.3% respectively [1] - Demand for upgraded goods remained strong, with retail sales of gold and silver jewelry, sports and entertainment products, and cosmetics increasing by 37.6%, 10.1%, and 9.6% respectively [1] Group 2: Service Consumption - From January to October, service retail sales grew by 5.3%, accelerating by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous three quarters, and outpacing goods retail sales by 0.9 percentage points [1] - Driven by holiday travel demand, retail sales in tourism consulting, transportation services, and cultural and recreational services all maintained growth rates above 10% [1] - Restaurant income increased by 3.8% in October, with a growth acceleration of 2.9 percentage points compared to September [1] - The inbound tourism sector remained robust, with 751,000 foreign visitors during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, marking a 19.8% increase [1] Group 3: New Consumption Trends - In October, sales of smart health devices grew by over 20%, while smart wearable devices saw approximately 4% growth, and sales of first-level energy-efficient appliances increased by over 10% [2] - The retail volume of new energy passenger vehicles grew by 7.3% in October, with a penetration rate of 57.2% [2] - From January to October, the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 6.3% [2] Group 4: Rural vs Urban Consumption - Rural consumption outpaced urban consumption, with rural retail sales of consumer goods growing by 4.1% in October, 1.4 percentage points faster than urban areas [2] - From January to October, rural retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.6%, outpacing urban growth by 0.4 percentage points [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is currently in a consolidation phase, with rapid rotation between sectors, particularly as funds shift towards lithium batteries and electrolyte themes, while the technology sector is undergoing a correction after significant gains [1] Sector Summaries 1. Market Dynamics - The A-share market is experiencing a continued consolidation pattern, with funds rotating quickly between sectors [1] - The technology sector, which had previously seen substantial gains, is now in a state of correction [1] - There is a notable shift of funds towards lithium batteries and electrolyte themes, indicating a change in investment focus [1] 2. Institutional Positioning - As the year-end approaches, institutional allocations are likely to become more balanced, preparing for the economic outlook for the next year [1] - The year-end market is expected to maintain a volatile structure [1] 3. Investment Opportunities - In the context of sector rotation, there are opportunities in themes such as anti-involution and dividends [1] - **Anti-involution Sector**: The focus on addressing "involution" competition is becoming a key macroeconomic control measure, enhancing the long-term investment value of related sectors [1] - **New Productive Forces**: Technology companies that align with national strategies and possess genuine technological barriers are expected to be a significant investment theme in the A-share market [1] - **Consumer Sector**: As a crucial part of domestic demand, consumption plays a vital role in stabilizing the economic foundation, with particular attention on service consumption and new consumption segments [1] - **"Dual" Sector**: Project construction is anticipated to drive the improvement and development of the industrial chain, benefiting related companies through increased orders and performance releases [1]

Group 1 - The State Council's ninth plenary session emphasizes strengthening domestic circulation by removing restrictive measures in the consumption sector to stimulate consumer potential and promote high-quality economic development [1][2] - Systematic removal of restrictions will empower consumers with more autonomy, enhance their quality of life, and stimulate demand, while also breaking market barriers to attract more participants and foster competition [1][2] - Optimizing policies in the automotive sector is crucial as it is a pillar industry that encompasses various segments, and normalizing consumption will benefit both production and supply chains [1][3] Group 2 - Adjusting real estate market policies is essential to release potential demand for improved housing, which is interconnected with multiple industries such as construction and furniture [2][3] - Accelerating the growth of service consumption and new consumption models, such as online education and shared economy, is necessary to meet the evolving needs of consumers and represents a significant growth opportunity [2][4] - The execution of removing consumption restrictions should follow a scientific and orderly approach, ensuring that local governments do not implement one-size-fits-all measures and instead tailor actions to specific market conditions [3][4] Group 3 - In the automotive sector, transitioning from purchase management to usage management can alleviate traffic pressure and lower policy execution costs, thereby meeting consumer demand [3][4] - The real estate sector requires a comprehensive cancellation of purchase, sale, and price restrictions to establish a new mechanism that links various market elements [3][4] - In the service consumption area, breaking down hidden market entry barriers and enhancing the supply of high-quality services can create job opportunities and stimulate economic growth [4]

Group 1 - The State Council's ninth plenary session emphasizes strengthening domestic circulation by removing restrictive measures in the consumption sector to stimulate consumer potential and promote high-quality economic development [1][2] - Systematic removal of restrictions will empower consumers with more autonomy, enhance their quality of life, and stimulate demand [1][3] - Optimizing the automotive purchase policy is crucial as it supports the automotive industry and its supply chain, facilitating normal consumption and industry transformation [1][2] Group 2 - Adjusting real estate market policies is essential to release the potential for improved housing demand, which is interconnected with various industries such as construction and furniture [2][3] - Accelerating the growth of service consumption and new consumption models, such as online education and shared economy, is necessary to meet the evolving needs of consumers [2][4] - The implementation of consumption restriction removal must follow a scientific and orderly approach, avoiding a one-size-fits-all strategy while enhancing the business environment [3][4] Group 3 - In the automotive sector, transitioning from purchase management to usage management can alleviate traffic pressure and meet consumer needs more effectively [3][4] - The real estate sector requires the comprehensive removal of purchase, sale, and price restrictions to promote healthy market development [3][4] - In the service consumption area, breaking down invisible market entry barriers and enhancing the supply of high-quality services can create job opportunities and drive economic growth [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) emphasizes the importance of stabilizing employment and expanding domestic demand as key focuses for policy development in the second half of the year, indicating a structural opportunity in the consumption market with new consumption becoming a new engine for economic growth [1][2] - The NDRC's policy design focuses on building a long-term mechanism for consumption rather than relying solely on short-term stimulus measures like subsidies and consumption vouchers, highlighting a shift towards a model of "investment first, consumption follows" to create a virtuous cycle of investment, employment, income, and consumption [1][2] - The policies will also aim to expand domestic demand comprehensively, combining the promotion of consumption with the development of new productive forces, particularly in the new consumption sector, which is expected to open new avenues for growth in the consumption market [2] Group 2 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) plans to implement strategies to expand domestic demand and solidify the industrial economy, focusing on enhancing the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand, and accelerating the development and application of technologies such as artificial intelligence terminals and drones [2] - The emphasis on new productive forces and new consumption indicates that a new economic momentum is emerging, which presents significant opportunities for companies that can align with these policies and invest in new consumption sectors [2] - The new consumption market is anticipated to be promising in the second half of the year, suggesting that companies should seize the policy window to position themselves advantageously in the evolving market landscape [3]

Economic Stability and Growth - The city aims to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations through various measures to expand effective demand and enhance economic recovery [2][4] - A special action plan for boosting consumption has been implemented, focusing on increasing income, improving service consumption quality, and enhancing the consumer environment [2][3] Service Consumption Promotion - The city plans to enhance service consumption by improving supply quality, developing cultural and tourism resources, and promoting sports events [2] - The goal is to create a cultural consumption hub and improve the quality of life services [2] Inbound Consumption Expansion - Shanghai received nearly 6.71 million inbound travelers last year, a year-on-year increase of 84%, highlighting the importance of inbound tourism for local consumption [3] - The city aims to optimize the tax refund environment for outbound travelers, with a target of over 3,000 tax refund stores by 2027 [3] New Consumption Cultivation - The city will focus on developing digital consumption, self-care consumption, and the "first launch economy," with over 3,500 brands launching in Shanghai last year [3] - The "Silver Economy" targeting elderly consumers will be promoted, with support for products and services tailored to their needs [3] Investment Expansion - The city has been allocated a new bond quota of 138.6 billion yuan, with a focus on infrastructure, emerging industries, and urban renewal projects [4] - The aim is to expedite project initiation and construction to generate tangible work output [4] Business Environment Reform - The city has launched the 8.0 version of the business environment reform action plan, focusing on optimizing policy services and reducing administrative checks [4][5] - A total of 378 policy items have been made available for enterprises without application, benefiting over 4 million services [4] Technology Innovation and Industry Integration - The city emphasizes the importance of technology and industry innovation as a pathway to develop new productive forces [6] - Plans include increasing high-quality technology supply and supporting basic research funding to rise from 11% to 15% of total R&D expenditure by 2027 [6] Enterprise Innovation Support - The city aims to strengthen the role of enterprises in technology innovation, promoting collaboration between industry, academia, and research [7] - A target of around 20,000 specialized and innovative small and medium-sized enterprises is set for 2030 [7] Open Platform Enhancement - The city is working on enhancing major open platforms to align with international trade rules and improve competitiveness [8] - Specific actions include reforming customs special supervision areas and providing integrated services for enterprises going global [9][10] Public Service Improvement - The city is committed to improving public services, focusing on employment stability and community health services [11][12][13] - Initiatives include enhancing community health service capabilities and ensuring better access to quality medical resources [13]