Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, due to pre - holiday capital prudence, base metals will experience a rise followed by a fall. However, the logic of weak US dollar expectations and supply disruption concerns remains unchanged. After copper, aluminum, and tin prices stop falling, low - buying and long - position opportunities can be considered. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disruption issues for copper, aluminum, and tin persist. There are expectations of tightening supply - demand, and the price trends of copper, aluminum, and tin are optimistic [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.行情观点 - **Copper**: Supply contraction expectations are strong, and copper prices will continue to operate at high levels. The macro - environment shows US economic resilience and the Fed's easing policies. On the supply side, copper mine supply disruptions are increasing, and there are expectations of reduced refined copper production. On the demand side, it is in a weak season with inventory accumulation. The risk of LME copper squeezing has weakened. In the future, copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [7] - **Alumina**: Cost support is not effective, and alumina prices are still under pressure. Macro sentiment amplifies price fluctuations. On the supply side, there is insufficient real - world contraction and strong inventory accumulation. Raw material prices are weak. From the perspective of warehouse receipt digestion, there is pressure on the price. The price may fluctuate more as it enters a low - valuation range. It is expected to remain in a volatile state [7] - **Aluminum**: Capital sentiment is volatile, and aluminum prices will oscillate at high levels. The macro - outlook is positive. On the supply side, domestic production capacity is high, and overseas supply is expected to tighten. On the demand side, high prices suppress demand, and inventory has accumulated. In the short term, prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and in the medium term, the price center may rise [9][10] - **Aluminum Alloy**: Cost support continues, and the price will oscillate at high levels. Cost support is strong due to tight scrap aluminum supply. On the supply side, there are risks of production reduction. On the demand side, it may weaken marginally. In the short and medium terms, prices are expected to oscillate strongly [11] - **Zinc**: Domestic and overseas inventory trends are divergent, and zinc prices will oscillate at high levels. The macro - outlook is positive. On the supply side, short - term zinc ore supply is tight, and production may decline. On the demand side, it is in the off - season with limited new orders. In the short term, prices may oscillate at high levels, and in the long term, there may be a downward trend [12][13] - **Lead**: Lead prices fluctuate with non - ferrous metals, and supply - demand may weaken. On the supply side, production may increase as smelters resume production. On the demand side, battery enterprise operating rates are declining, and demand is weakening marginally. Lead prices are expected to remain in a volatile state [14][15] - **Nickel**: Expectations of Indonesian policies cause disruptions, and nickel prices have risen significantly. On the supply side, there is still pressure, but Indonesia's planned reduction of nickel ore production in 2026 may change the situation. On the demand side, it is in the traditional off - season. Nickel prices are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to policy implementation [15][19] - **Stainless Steel**: Rising nickel prices drive up the stainless - steel market. Cost support exists, and production is expected to decline in December. Inventory may accumulate in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy changes [20][22] - **Tin**: Pre - holiday long - position reduction causes a correction in tin prices. On the supply side, there are risks and production is difficult to increase. On the demand side, it is expected to grow. Tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly [22][23] 2.行情监测 - **Copper**: Not provided in the given content - **Alumina**: Not provided in the given content - **Aluminum**: Not provided in the given content - **Aluminum Alloy**: Not provided in the given content - **Zinc**: Not provided in the given content - **Lead**: Not provided in the given content - **Nickel**: Not provided in the given content - **Stainless Steel**: Not provided in the given content - **Tin**: Not provided in the given content 3.中信期货商品指数 - On December 30, 2025, the comprehensive index was 2343.82, up 0.17%; the commodity 20 index was 2683.42, down 0.17%; the industrial products index was 2271.47, up 0.56%. The non - ferrous metals index was 2675.54, with a daily decline of 0.03%, a 5 - day increase of 1.47%, a 1 - month increase of 6.49%, and a year - to - date increase of 15.91% [147][149]

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 12月30日，中国铝业发布公告称，中国铝业第九届董事会第八次会议审议通过《关于公 司2026年度经营预算的议案》等。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the appointment of Mr. Wu Jun as the Vice General Manager of Jiangxi Copper Company, which was approved during the 14th meeting of the 10th Board of Directors [1] Group 2 - The announcement was made on December 30, indicating a significant management change within the company [1] - The decision reflects the company's ongoing efforts to strengthen its leadership team [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Nonferrous Metal Industry Co., Ltd. announced a capital increase of $120 million to its wholly-owned subsidiary, China Nonferrous Singapore Co., Ltd., to enhance its financial strength and operational capabilities for the acquisition of Compañía Minera Raura S.A. [1] Group 1 - The board meeting of China Nonferrous Metal Industry Co., Ltd. is scheduled for December 30, 2025, to review the capital increase proposal [1] - The capital increase will raise the registered capital of China Nonferrous Singapore from $2 million to $122 million, maintaining 100% ownership by the company [1] - The cash injection aims to ensure the smooth implementation of the acquisition of Compañía Minera Raura S.A. [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes the necessity of strong R&D capabilities and digital transformation to collaborate with leading international enterprises [2] Group 1: R&D Capabilities - The company has established significant technical barriers in alloying, microstructure reconstruction, and specialized equipment through its digital R&D platform and ecosystem [2] - The ability to quickly address customer needs and material selection pain points is crucial for collaboration with international firms [2] Group 2: Digital Transformation - Traditional enterprises must undergo digital transformation to achieve a digital management model, ensuring product stability, consistency, and reliability for customers [2] - A systematic management framework is essential for international clients to choose the company and is a core competitive advantage for long-term sustainable development [2]

中色股份公告，公司于2025年12月30日召开董事会，审议通过向全资子公司中色新加坡增资1.2亿美元 的议案。增资旨在提升中色新加坡的资金实力和运营能力，保障其收购Raura公司股权的顺利实施。增 资完成后，中色新加坡注册资本将从200万美元增至12,200万美元，公司持股比例仍为100%。本次增资 不涉及关联交易，不构成重大资产重组，且无需提交股东会审议。 ...

证券日报网讯 12月30日，云南铜业在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司2025年第三季度实现归母 净利润2.35亿元，季度业绩的波动主要受铜冶炼加工费（TC/RC）持续处于历史低位等行业性因素影 响。公司开展套期保值业务是为了规避和防范原料、主产品价格以及外汇汇率波动带来的经营风险，其 效果需要将期货端与现货端的损益结合看待。从近年整体情况评估，公司的套期保值业务基本实现了风 险管控、稳健经营的预期目标。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

厦钨新能公告称，2025年公司及全资子公司厦门璟鹭新能源材料有限公司对不超5亿元闲置募集资金进 行现金管理。近期，公司赎回此前认购的中国农业银行、中国建设银行、厦门国际银行的结构性存款产 品，收回本金5亿元及收益175.76万元，已划至募集资金专项账户。公告日前12个月内，公司有多次使 用闲置募集资金现金管理并赎回的情况，均获收益。截至公告披露日，公司暂无使用闲置募集资金现金 管理的情况。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Overnight, LME copper rose then fell, erasing almost all gains; SHFE copper trended lower, dropping below 100,000 yuan/ton. Domestic refined copper imports remained at a loss. LME inventory decreased by 2,450 tons to 154,575 tons, Comex inventory increased by 4,880 tons to 443,003 tons, and domestic refined copper social inventory increased by 21,200 tons to 214,800 tons. High copper prices made downstream procurement cautious, with exports becoming active. Affected by the precious metals market, copper prices may return to fundamentals after risk - release, and this decline may accumulate energy for future upward movement [1]. Aluminum - Overnight, alumina, aluminum, and aluminum alloy all trended lower. Alumina prices decreased to 2,702 yuan/ton, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots widened. With high ore reserves in alumina plants and lower long - term contract prices, alumina prices face downward pressure. The macro - sentiment is positive, but the release of backlogged goods and approaching the New Year will increase inventory pressure and put pressure on spot discounts [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel rose 0.64% and SHFE nickel fell 0.81%. LME inventory decreased by 510 tons and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 983 tons. The Indonesian nickel ore production plan for 2026 may be significantly reduced, and the government plans to revise the nickel benchmark price calculation formula. Nickel ore prices are stable, nickel - iron prices rose, and the theoretical profit of nickel sulfate turned negative. News may boost nickel prices, but the actual implementation is uncertain [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight LME and SHFE copper showed different trends. Inventory changes were mixed, and downstream procurement was cautious. The fall in copper prices may be a prelude to future upward movement [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina, aluminum, and aluminum alloy all weakened. High ore reserves and lower costs put pressure on alumina prices. The release of backlogged goods and approaching the New Year will increase inventory pressure on aluminum [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME and SHFE nickel had opposite trends. Inventory changes were different. News from Indonesia may affect nickel prices, and the market is waiting for implementation [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Market prices mostly increased, such as the price of flat - water copper rising by 2,990 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased, while Comex and social inventories increased [1][3]. - **Aluminum**: Market prices generally rose, and inventory changes varied. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 12,000 tons, while alumina inventory decreased by 29,000 tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 2,100 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased. The social inventory of nickel also increased [2][4]. - **Zinc**: The main contract price increased by 0.4%. Market prices generally rose, and inventory changes were mixed. Social inventory decreased by 6,000 tons [6]. - **Lead**: Market prices mostly increased, and inventory changes were mixed. LME inventory decreased by 4,625 tons, and domestic inventory decreased by 780 tons [3]. - **Tin**: The main contract price increased by 1.3%. Market prices generally rose, and inventory increased. LME inventory increased by 250 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 382 tons [6]. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][9][11][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][15][16][18][20][21]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [22][23][24][25][26][27]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [28][29][30][31][32][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [34][35][36][37][38][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [41][42][43][44][45][46]. Team Introduction - The team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience in non - ferrous metal research and have won many industry awards [48][49].

Group 1 - Silver industry stocks opened at the limit down price, indicating significant market pressure [1] - Yuguang Gold Lead and Xinye Silver Tin experienced declines exceeding 5% [1] - Hunan Silver, Jiangxi Copper, and Yunnan Copper also opened lower, reflecting a broader downturn in the sector [1]