Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, due to pre - holiday capital prudence, base metals will experience a rise followed by a fall. However, the logic of weak US dollar expectations and supply disruption concerns remains unchanged. After copper, aluminum, and tin prices stop falling, low - buying and long - position opportunities can be considered. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disruption issues for copper, aluminum, and tin persist. There are expectations of tightening supply - demand, and the price trends of copper, aluminum, and tin are optimistic [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.行情观点 - **Copper**: Supply contraction expectations are strong, and copper prices will continue to operate at high levels. The macro - environment shows US economic resilience and the Fed's easing policies. On the supply side, copper mine supply disruptions are increasing, and there are expectations of reduced refined copper production. On the demand side, it is in a weak season with inventory accumulation. The risk of LME copper squeezing has weakened. In the future, copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [7] - **Alumina**: Cost support is not effective, and alumina prices are still under pressure. Macro sentiment amplifies price fluctuations. On the supply side, there is insufficient real - world contraction and strong inventory accumulation. Raw material prices are weak. From the perspective of warehouse receipt digestion, there is pressure on the price. The price may fluctuate more as it enters a low - valuation range. It is expected to remain in a volatile state [7] - **Aluminum**: Capital sentiment is volatile, and aluminum prices will oscillate at high levels. The macro - outlook is positive. On the supply side, domestic production capacity is high, and overseas supply is expected to tighten. On the demand side, high prices suppress demand, and inventory has accumulated. In the short term, prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and in the medium term, the price center may rise [9][10] - **Aluminum Alloy**: Cost support continues, and the price will oscillate at high levels. Cost support is strong due to tight scrap aluminum supply. On the supply side, there are risks of production reduction. On the demand side, it may weaken marginally. In the short and medium terms, prices are expected to oscillate strongly [11] - **Zinc**: Domestic and overseas inventory trends are divergent, and zinc prices will oscillate at high levels. The macro - outlook is positive. On the supply side, short - term zinc ore supply is tight, and production may decline. On the demand side, it is in the off - season with limited new orders. In the short term, prices may oscillate at high levels, and in the long term, there may be a downward trend [12][13] - **Lead**: Lead prices fluctuate with non - ferrous metals, and supply - demand may weaken. On the supply side, production may increase as smelters resume production. On the demand side, battery enterprise operating rates are declining, and demand is weakening marginally. Lead prices are expected to remain in a volatile state [14][15] - **Nickel**: Expectations of Indonesian policies cause disruptions, and nickel prices have risen significantly. On the supply side, there is still pressure, but Indonesia's planned reduction of nickel ore production in 2026 may change the situation. On the demand side, it is in the traditional off - season. Nickel prices are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to policy implementation [15][19] - **Stainless Steel**: Rising nickel prices drive up the stainless - steel market. Cost support exists, and production is expected to decline in December. Inventory may accumulate in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy changes [20][22] - **Tin**: Pre - holiday long - position reduction causes a correction in tin prices. On the supply side, there are risks and production is difficult to increase. On the demand side, it is expected to grow. Tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly [22][23] 2.行情监测 - **Copper**: Not provided in the given content - **Alumina**: Not provided in the given content - **Aluminum**: Not provided in the given content - **Aluminum Alloy**: Not provided in the given content - **Zinc**: Not provided in the given content - **Lead**: Not provided in the given content - **Nickel**: Not provided in the given content - **Stainless Steel**: Not provided in the given content - **Tin**: Not provided in the given content 3.中信期货商品指数 - On December 30, 2025, the comprehensive index was 2343.82, up 0.17%; the commodity 20 index was 2683.42, down 0.17%; the industrial products index was 2271.47, up 0.56%. The non - ferrous metals index was 2675.54, with a daily decline of 0.03%, a 5 - day increase of 1.47%, a 1 - month increase of 6.49%, and a year - to - date increase of 15.91% [147][149]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - environment is generally positive. The lower - than - expected US CPI in November boosts the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the Central Economic Work Conference in December has a positive tone, which is expected to improve domestic consumption. The raw material supply is tight and may spread to the smelting end, with a risk of supply contraction. The current supply - demand of basic metals is relatively loose, but the future is expected to be tight. In the short - to - medium term, supply concerns support prices, while high prices restrain consumption. Long - term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disturbances are expected to drive up the prices of copper, aluminum, and tin [3]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Copper - **Viewpoint**: The long - term processing fee for copper ore is settled, and copper prices are oscillating at a high level. SMM reports that the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark is set at $0/ton and $0/pound. The CSPT plans to reduce the copper ore production capacity load by over 10% in 2026. In November, China's electrolytic copper production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The spot price of 1 electrolytic copper on December 22 was at a discount to the contract. As of December 22, the copper inventory increased. The LME plans to set and implement position limits on key and related contracts from July 6, 2026. Macro factors and supply constraints support copper prices, but weak demand and inventory accumulation limit the upside. The outlook is for copper prices to be oscillatingly strong [9][10][11]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The over - supply situation has not improved significantly, and alumina prices continue to be under pressure. On December 22, the spot prices in various regions declined, and the alumina warehouse receipts decreased. High - cost production capacity has some fluctuations, but the supply reduction is insufficient. The cost support is weak, and the warehouse receipts digestion faces pressure. The price is expected to oscillate [11][12][13]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: The inventory has accumulated, and aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level. On December 22, the average price of SMM AOO increased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and bars changed. In November, China's un - wrought aluminum and aluminum product exports decreased year - on - year. The "aluminum for copper" standard work has been launched, and the aluminum ingot premium for Japan in Q1 2026 has increased. The macro - environment is positive, the supply is tight in the long - term, and the short - term high prices suppress demand. Aluminum prices are expected to be oscillatingly strong in the short - term and may rise in the medium - term [14][15]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Pay attention to demand changes, and the futures price is oscillating at a high level. On December 22, the prices of related products were stable or changed slightly. An Indonesian electrolytic aluminum project has started production, and the import of scrap aluminum in October increased. The cost support is strong, but the supply may be reduced due to policies, and the demand may weaken. The price is expected to be oscillatingly strong in the short - and medium - term [16]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: The inventory trends at home and abroad are different, and zinc prices are oscillating at a high level. On December 22, the spot prices in different regions were at premiums to the contract. As of December 22, the zinc inventory increased. In November, China's zinc concentrate imports increased. The macro - environment is positive, the short - term zinc ore supply is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. Zinc prices may oscillate in the short - term and decline in the long - term [19][20]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has declined, and the rebound space of lead prices is limited. On December 22, the prices of related products changed slightly, and the inventory decreased. Since December, the implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles has affected battery consumption, and the operating rate of some enterprises has weakened. The supply may increase as the maintenance of smelters ends, and the demand is weakening. Lead prices are expected to oscillate [21][22]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: Indonesia plans to significantly reduce the nickel ore RKAB, and nickel prices have rebounded. On December 22, the LME and domestic nickel inventories changed. The price of high - nickel pig iron increased. Indonesia plans to revise the HPM formula and reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target. The current supply is still under pressure, and the demand is in the off - season. If the RKAB plan is implemented, the surplus expectation will decline. Nickel prices are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to policy implementation [23][24]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: Driven by the rebound of nickel prices, the stainless - steel futures price has recovered. On December 22, the price of high - nickel pig iron increased, and the stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts decreased. Indonesia plans to reduce the nickel ore production target. The cost has some support, the production may decline in December, and the inventory may accumulate. Stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range [26][27]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: Supply concerns and low inventory levels make tin prices oscillatingly strong. On December 22, the warehouse receipts and positions of tin increased, and the spot price rose. The supply from Myanmar has recovered, but the supply in Indonesia may be restricted in Q1 2026, and African supply is limited. The demand is expected to increase due to the economic environment and industry development. Tin prices are expected to be oscillatingly strong [27][28]. Group 4: Market Monitoring - On December 22, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index of the CITICS Futures commodity index increased by 1.10%, 1.34%, and 0.79% respectively. The PPI commodity index increased by 0.63%. The non - ferrous metal index increased by 0.85%. The daily, 5 - day, 1 - month, and year - to - date growth rates of the non - ferrous metal index were +0.85%, +2.42%, +5.61%, and +12.36% respectively [152][154].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The macro - view is expected to be positive, with the Fed's actions and China's central economic work conference setting a good tone. However, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are volatile. The raw material supply is tight and may affect the smelting end. The current supply - demand improvement of basic metals has slowed down, but the future supply - demand is expected to be tight. In the short - to - medium term, supply concerns support prices, and positive demand expectations may boost basic metals, but high prices and volatile Fed expectations may limit price increases. In the long term, potential stimulus policies in China and supply disturbances in copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to drive up their prices. It is advisable to focus on opportunities for low - buying and long - holding of copper, aluminum, and tin [2]. 3. Summary of Each Variety Copper - **View**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and copper prices fluctuate at a high level, with a medium - term outlook of being volatile and bullish [7][8][9]. - **Analysis**: The US unemployment rate is high, and the Fed's interest - rate cut and balance - sheet expansion support copper prices. The supply of copper ore is tight, and CSPT plans to reduce production in 2026. Demand is weak in the off - season, and inventory is rising. LME's plan to set position limits weakens the upward momentum of copper prices [7][8][9]. Alumina - **View**: The oversupply situation has not improved significantly, and alumina prices continue to be under pressure, with a medium - term outlook of being volatile [9][10][11]. - **Analysis**: Macro sentiment affects the market. The supply reduction is insufficient, and the cost support is weak. The warehouse receipts are decreasing, but there is pressure on the price due to factors such as expired warehouse receipts and regional premium adjustments. The price may fluctuate more as more funds focus on it [9][10][11]. Aluminum - **View**: Mozal Aluminum Plant may shut down, and aluminum prices fluctuate at a high level, with a medium - term outlook of being volatile and bullish [13][14]. - **Analysis**: The macro - view is positive. Domestically, production capacity and operating rate are high, while overseas power shortages may tighten supply. High prices suppress demand, and inventory is accumulating. Overall, the short - term is volatile and bullish, and the medium - term price center may rise [13][14]. Aluminum Alloy - **View**: Pay attention to demand changes, and the market fluctuates at a high level, with a medium - term outlook of being volatile and bullish [15]. - **Analysis**: The cost is supported by tight scrap aluminum supply. Supply may decrease due to environmental policies and unclear policies. Demand may weaken after the end of the year - end car sales season. With cost support and stable supply - demand, the short - and medium - term prices are expected to be volatile and bullish [15]. Zinc - **View**: LME zinc inventory has risen to nearly 100,000 tons, and zinc prices fluctuate downward, with an overall outlook of being volatile [18][19]. - **Analysis**: The macro - view is positive. The short - term supply of zinc ore is tight, and production costs are rising. Demand is in the off - season. The short - term price may be volatile, and the long - term price may decline due to increased supply and limited demand growth [18][19]. Lead - **View**: LME lead inventory has increased significantly, and lead prices fluctuate downward, with an overall outlook of being volatile [20][21]. - **Analysis**: The spot premium is rising, and the supply is affected by smelter overhauls. Demand is relatively stable with some battery enterprises planning to increase production. However, the increase in LME inventory suppresses the price [20][21]. Nickel - **View**: Indonesia plans to significantly reduce the RKAB of nickel ore, and nickel prices rebound, with an overall outlook of being volatile [21][23][26]. - **Analysis**: The current supply is still under pressure, and demand is weak in the off - season. However, if Indonesia's RKAB plan is implemented, the oversupply situation in 2026 may improve significantly [21][23][26]. Stainless Steel - **View**: The rebound of nickel prices drives up the stainless - steel market, with an overall outlook of being range - bound [27][28]. - **Analysis**: The cost is supported by raw materials, but production is expected to decrease in December. The inventory may accumulate in the off - season, and the price is likely to be range - bound [27][28]. Tin - **View**: The downstream rigid demand is resilient, and tin prices fluctuate upward, with a medium - term outlook of being volatile and bullish [28][29]. - **Analysis**: Supply is restricted by issues such as slow复产 in mines, RKAB approvals in Indonesia, and political instability in Africa. Demand is growing in industries like semiconductors, photovoltaics, and new - energy vehicles, which will drive up the tin price [28][29]. 4. Market Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index, and PPI commodity index all showed positive growth on December 17, 2025. For example, the commodity index was 2262.95, up 0.56% [155]. - **Sector Index**: The non - ferrous metals index on December 17, 2025, had a daily increase of 0.74%, a 5 - day increase of 0.25%, a 1 - month increase of 3.62%, and a year - to - date increase of 10.52% [156].

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) has announced new position management rules to comply with the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) regulations regarding position limits in the commodities market, effective from July 6, 2026 [1] Group 1: New Rules Implementation - The responsibility for setting and managing position limits, exemptions, and other position management controls will shift from the FCA to the LME starting July 6, 2026 [1] - The new rules will apply to "key contracts" which include core futures contracts such as aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin, and zinc, as well as "related contracts" including options, TAPO, and settlement trading contracts [1] Group 2: Objectives and Future Plans - The new position management rules aim to enhance the LME's ability to directly calibrate and manage limits, ensuring that limits remain appropriate and responsive to market dynamics [1] - The LME plans to release a consultation document in February 2026 regarding proposed changes to the rules to align with the new regulatory framework [1]