1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views Polyester Industry - PX: After the previous profit repair, supply has increased, and downstream polyester producers plan to cut production, leading to a weakening supply - demand balance. However, short - term support is still strong due to the restart of PTA devices and new installations. PX09 is expected to fluctuate between 6500 - 6900 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA: With the restart of previous maintenance devices and new installations, and the expansion of downstream polyester producers' production cut plans, the supply - demand balance is weakening. But considering the demand for PX and rising oil prices, the price has support at low levels. TA09 is expected to fluctuate between 4600 - 4900 yuan/ton [2]. - Ethylene Glycol: In June, the supply - demand structure is good, with limited import growth. Short - term demand is weak, and the market is expected to fluctuate between 4200 - 4450 yuan/ton [2]. - Short - fiber: The supply and demand are both weak. The processing fee has been repaired recently, but the repair space is limited. PF08 is expected to run between 6300 - 6700 yuan/ton [2]. - Bottle - chip: In June, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, and the processing fee may rebound. The absolute price follows the cost [2]. Polyolefin Industry PP is bearish in the medium - term and can be used as a short - position allocation. PE has a weaker structure, and geopolitical conflicts may lead to a short - term rebound followed by short - selling. If oil prices fall, there will be more downward space [7]. Crude Oil Industry Oil price fluctuations are expected to increase due to concerns about supply disruptions caused by geopolitical issues. It is recommended to take a short - term bullish view. WTI's upper resistance is in the range of [79, 80] dollars/barrel, Brent's upper pressure is in the range of [80, 81] dollars/barrel, and SC's pressure level is in the range of [580, 595] yuan/barrel [10]. Urea Industry In the short - term, under high supply pressure, downstream demand has not yet connected well. The futures price may rebound due to the linkage of the energy - chemical sector, but the amplitude is limited by the fundamentals. It is recommended to wait and see [13]. Methanol Industry Imports and inland logistics have jointly pushed up port inventories. In the short - term, the inventory accumulation trend continues. It is necessary to track the situation in Iran and MTO dynamics. In the long - term, if Iranian supply is interrupted, it may push up the market sentiment, but downstream losses and high implicit inventories will restrict the spot price increase [15]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic Soda: Recently, the supply has decreased, and the demand is under pressure. There may be inventory pressure risks in the short - term. The 7 - 9 positive spread should be exited. In the medium - term, the far - month contract is looking for a bottom [18]. - PVC: In the short - term, it shows a volatile trend. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction is prominent due to the weak real - estate market. In June, supply pressure is expected to increase, and it is recommended to take a short - selling approach [18]. Styrene Industry Crude oil price increases have driven up the downstream product prices. Pure benzene has upward potential, but high inventory may limit the upside. Styrene's supply and demand have both increased weekly, and port inventory has decreased slightly. In the short - term, there is upward space, but there is medium - term fundamental pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [24]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Polyester Industry - **Prices and Cash Flows**: From June 12 to 13, prices of most polyester products and upstream raw materials changed. For example, the price of POY150/48 increased by 0.7%, and the price of WTI crude oil (July) increased by 6.8% [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: PX supply has increased, and downstream polyester producers plan to cut production. PTA's supply - demand balance is weakening, while ethylene glycol's supply - demand structure in June is good [2]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various sectors in the polyester industry have changed. For example, the PTA operating rate increased from 79.7% to 82.6% [2]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: From June 12 to 13, prices of LLDPE and PP futures and spot increased, and the price spreads also changed [7]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: PP inventory is accumulating, and PE inventory is decreasing. The operating rates of PP and PE devices have increased [7]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On June 16, compared with June 13, prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil increased, and the price spreads also changed [10]. - **Supply and Demand Concerns**: The market is worried about supply disruptions caused by geopolitical issues, and OPEC's actual spare capacity is lower than the theoretical value [10]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures prices and spreads of urea contracts have changed from June 12 to 13 [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea supply is high, and downstream demand has not yet connected well [13]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: From June 12 to 13, methanol futures and spot prices increased, and the price spreads also changed [15]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Port inventory has increased significantly. The operating rates of upstream and downstream industries have changed [15]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: From June 12 to 13, prices of PVC and caustic soda futures and spot changed, and the price spreads also changed [18]. - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda supply has decreased, and demand is under pressure. PVC's short - term supply - demand contradiction is not intensified, but there is long - term pressure [18]. Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: From June 12 to 13, prices of styrene upstream raw materials, spot, and futures increased, and the price spreads changed [21][22]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply and demand of styrene have both increased weekly, and port inventory has decreased slightly [24].

氯碱日报 | 2025-06-13 烧碱厂库回升，PVC社库去化放缓 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4826元/吨（-6）；华东基差-126元/吨（+6）;华南基差-6元/吨（+6）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4700元/吨（+0）；华南电石法报价4820元/吨（+0）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格575元/吨（+0）；电石价格2830元/吨（+0）；电石利润80元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-426元/吨（+121）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-520元/吨（-15）；PVC出口利润-1.6美元/吨（-3.0）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存39.8万吨（+1.4）；PVC社会库存36.1万吨（-0.1）；PVC电石法开工率80.45%（+0.55%）； PVC乙烯法开工率67.36%（-3.77%）；PVC开工率76.83%（-0.64%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量62.6万吨（+8.6）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2301元/吨（-31）；山东32%液碱基差418元/吨（+31）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价870元/吨（+0）；山东50%液碱报价 ...

氯碱日报 | 2025-06-12 需求跟进不佳，PVC维持弱势震荡 上游生产利润：山东烧碱单品种利润1728元/吨（-31）；山东氯碱综合利润（0.8吨液氯）984.5元/吨（+8.8）；山东 氯碱综合利润（1吨PVC）432.53元/吨（-31.25）；西北氯碱综合利润（1吨PVC）1405.55元/吨（-40.51）。 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4832元/吨（+22）；华东基差-132元/吨（-2）;华南基差-12元/吨（-2）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4700元/吨（+20）；华南电石法报价4820元/吨（+20）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格575元/吨（+0）；电石价格2830元/吨（+0）；电石利润80元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-426元/吨（+121）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-520元/吨（-15）；PVC出口利润1.5美元/吨（+0.5）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存39.8万吨（+1.4）；PVC社会库存36.1万吨（-0.1）；PVC电石法开工率79.90%（+4.19%）； PVC乙烯法开工率71.13%（-0.58%）；PVC开工率 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Neutral [4] - Caustic Soda: Cautious short - selling hedging [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - PVC has high supply and inventory pressure, weak domestic demand, and lacks positive support for its fundamentals, with limited upward driving force and limited downward space at the current low valuation. Attention should be paid to export - related macro - policies and downstream demand recovery [3][4]. - The overall supply - demand fundamentals of caustic soda are expected to remain weak, with acceptable comprehensive profits, slow inventory digestion, and large inventory pressure. Attention should be paid to the continuity of downstream replenishment and upstream maintenance dynamics [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 4,810 yuan/ton (- 6), the East China basis was - 130 yuan/ton (+ 6), and the South China basis was - 10 yuan/ton (+ 16) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,680 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,800 yuan/ton (+ 10) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 575 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide price was 2,830 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide profit was 80 yuan/ton (+ 0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production was - 426 yuan/ton (+ 121), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production was - 520 yuan/ton (- 15), and the PVC export profit was 0.9 US dollars/ton (- 2.0) [1]. - Inventory and operation: The in - factory inventory of PVC was 39.8 million tons (+ 1.4), the social inventory of PVC was 36.1 million tons (- 0.1), the operation rate of PVC calcium carbide - based production was 79.90% (+ 4.19%), the operation rate of PVC ethylene - based production was 71.13% (- 0.58%), and the overall PVC operation rate was 77.47% (+ 2.87%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 62.6 million tons (+ 8.6) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,324 yuan/ton (+ 16), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 426 yuan/ton (- 16) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was quoted at 880 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was quoted at 1,400 yuan/ton (+ 0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,759 yuan/ton (+ 0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 975.8 yuan/ton (+ 40.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 463.78 yuan/ton (+ 0.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,446.05 yuan/ton (+ 0.00) [2]. - Inventory and operation: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories was 38.21 million tons (- 1.05), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories was 2.79 million tons (+ 0.06), and the operation rate of caustic soda was 83.50% (- 0.60%) [2]. - Downstream operation: The operation rate of alumina was 80.35% (+ 0.82%), the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China was 61.50% (- 1.18%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber was 80.56% (- 0.04%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: There were few new upstream maintenance, the PVC operation rate increased month - on - month, the current output was at a high level in the same period, and it was difficult to drive significant PVC production cuts under the support of chlor - alkali profits. Coupled with the expected new production capacity coming on stream from June to July, the supply pressure of PVC remained high [3]. - Demand side: The overall downstream operation of PVC was weakly stable, with downstream markets mainly making rigid - demand purchases, and the weak demand situation was difficult to change [3]. - Inventory side: Downstream enterprises replenished stocks at low prices. The social inventory of PVC continued to decline month - on - month but at a slower rate, while the in - factory inventory increased. With the increase in supply and weak demand in the later period, the social inventory may increase slightly. Attention should be paid to the inflection point of PVC inventory [3]. - Export: Export orders were continuously and stably delivered. The extension policy of India's BIS certification expired at the end of June, and there was no progress in the policy at present. Coupled with the rainy season suppressing terminal demand, it was expected to drag down export demand [3]. Caustic Soda - Supply side: There were still many new maintenance plans in June. The 1.02 million - ton production capacity of Fujian Southeast Electro - Chemical was shut down for maintenance, and maintenance in Shandong also increased. The operation rate in Shandong decreased month - on - month. However, due to acceptable chlor - alkali profits supporting upstream manufacturers to maintain high - load production, the overall operation rate of caustic soda remained at a high level. Moreover, new caustic soda production capacity was expected to be put into operation from June to July, so the supply pressure on caustic soda remained high [3]. - Demand side: The delivery volume to the main downstream increased, and the current delivery volume exceeded the daily consumption. After entering the inventory accumulation stage, attention should be paid to the continuity of later - stage stockpiling. After the production profit of alumina was restored, new and restarted production capacities were gradually released, and the operation rate of alumina increased month - on - month, but the restart was not obvious yet. The purchase price of 32% caustic soda by major alumina manufacturers in Shandong was reduced by 10 yuan/ton to 830 yuan/ton since June 11, which may drag down the price of caustic soda. Non - aluminum demand was not good, the operation rate of printing and dyeing decreased month - on - month, downstream customers were cautious about high prices, and purchases were mainly for rigid demand [3]. - Cost side: With the decline in coal and electricity prices, the cost support for caustic soda decreased [3]. Strategy - PVC: Neutral. Given the continuous high supply and inventory pressure, weak domestic demand, and lack of positive fundamental support, the upward driving force of PVC is insufficient. At the current low valuation, the downward space is also limited. Attention should be paid to export - related macro - policies and downstream demand recovery [4]. - Caustic Soda: Cautious short - selling hedging. The overall supply - demand fundamentals of caustic soda are expected to remain weak, with acceptable comprehensive profits, slow inventory digestion, and large inventory pressure. Attention should be paid to the continuity of downstream replenishment and upstream maintenance dynamics [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Neutral [4] - Caustic Soda: Cautious short-selling hedging [4] Core Viewpoints - PVC has high supply and high inventory pressure, weak domestic demand, and lacks positive fundamental support, with limited upward driving force. Attention should be paid to macro-export policies and downstream demand recovery [3][4]. - The overall supply and demand fundamentals of caustic soda are expected to remain weak, with high inventory pressure, slow inventory digestion, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of downstream replenishment and upstream maintenance dynamics [3][4]. Directory Summaries Market News and Important Data - **PVC** - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the main PVC contract was 4,816 yuan/ton (+26), the East China basis was -136 yuan/ton (-6), and the South China basis was -26 yuan/ton (-16) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide method quoted 4,680 yuan/ton (+20), and the South China calcium carbide method quoted 4,790 yuan/ton (+10) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi-coke price was 575 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2,830 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was 80 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide method production was -426 yuan/ton (+121), the gross profit of PVC ethylene method production was -520 yuan/ton (-15), and the PVC export profit was 3.0 US dollars/ton (-2.0) [1]. - PVC inventory and operation: The in-plant PVC inventory was 39.8 million tons (+1.4), the social PVC inventory was 36.1 million tons (-0.1), the operation rate of the PVC calcium carbide method was 79.90% (+4.19%), the operation rate of the PVC ethylene method was 71.13% (-0.58%), and the overall PVC operation rate was 77.47% (+2.87%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre-sale volume of production enterprises was 62.6 million tons (+8.6) [1]. - **Caustic Soda** - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,308 yuan/ton (-27), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 442 yuan/ton (+27) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 880 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,400 yuan/ton (-10) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single-variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,759 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor-alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 935.8 yuan/ton (-120.8), the comprehensive profit of chlor-alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 463.78 yuan/ton (+0.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor-alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,446.05 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 38.21 million tons (-1.05), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.79 million tons (+0.06), and the caustic soda operation rate was 83.50% (-0.60%) [2]. - Caustic soda downstream operation: The alumina operation rate was 80.35% (+0.82%), the dyeing operation rate in East China was 61.50% (-1.18%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate was 80.56% (-0.04%) [2]. Market Analysis - **PVC** - Supply side: There are few new upstream maintenance projects, the PVC operation rate has increased month-on-month, the current output is at a high level in the same period, and it is difficult to drive a significant reduction in PVC production under the support of chlor-alkali profits. Coupled with the expected production of new capacity from June to July, the PVC supply pressure remains high [3]. - Demand side: The overall downstream operation of PVC is weakly stable, and the downstream market mainly purchases based on rigid demand, with the weak demand situation difficult to change [3]. - Inventory side: Downstream enterprises replenish inventory at low prices, the social PVC inventory continues to decline month-on-month but the de-stocking rate slows down, while the in-plant inventory accumulates. In the future, with the increase in supply and weak demand, the social inventory may slightly accumulate. Attention should be paid to the inflection point of PVC inventory [3]. - Export: Export orders are continuously and stably delivered, but the extension policy of the Indian BIS certification expires at the end of June, and there is currently no progress in the policy. Coupled with the rainy season suppressing terminal demand, it is expected to drag down export demand [3]. - **Caustic Soda** - Supply side: There are still many new maintenance projects in June, with the 1.02 million-ton capacity of Fujian Southeast Electrochemical completely shut down for maintenance, and the maintenance in Shandong has also increased. The operation rate in Shandong has declined month-on-month, but due to the acceptable chlor-alkali profits, upstream manufacturers mostly maintain high-load production. The overall caustic soda operation rate remains at a high level, and new caustic soda capacity is expected to be put into production from June to July, so the supply-side pressure of caustic soda remains high [3]. - Demand side: After the continuous increase in the purchase price, the delivery volume of the main downstream has significantly increased, but when the delivery volume exceeds the daily consumption and enters the inventory accumulation stage, attention should be paid to the sustainability of future inventory stocking. After the repair of the alumina production profit, the new and restarted capacities are gradually released, and the alumina operation rate has increased month-on-month, but the restart is still not obvious at present. The non-aluminum demand performance is not good, the dyeing operation rate has declined month-on-month, and downstream customers are cautious about high prices and mainly purchase based on rigid demand [3]. - Cost side: With the decline in coal and electricity prices, the cost support for caustic soda has shifted downward [3]. Strategy - PVC: Adopt a neutral strategy. Due to the continuous high supply and high inventory pressure of PVC and weak domestic demand, the fundamental lack of positive support, and limited upward driving force, currently at a low valuation with limited downward space. Continue to pay attention to macro-export policies at the export end and the recovery of downstream demand [4]. - Caustic Soda: Adopt a cautious short-selling hedging strategy. Currently, the comprehensive chlor-alkali profit is acceptable, the inventory is being digested but at a slow speed, the inventory pressure is high, and the overall supply and demand fundamentals of caustic soda are still expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of downstream replenishment and upstream maintenance dynamics [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices rose due to macro - factors such as a weaker US dollar and optimistic sentiment from US - China trade negotiations. OPEC + production increased in May, but less than planned. The market is in a strong - side shock trend, suggesting a short - term long - bias approach. Resistance levels are given for WTI, Brent, and SC. Options can use a straddle structure [2]. Polyester Industry - PX: Supply has increased, but short - term downside is limited due to downstream demand and geopolitical factors. Strategies include short - term observation, 9 - 1 short - spread, and narrowing the PX - SC spread. - PTA: Supply - demand is weakening, but there is support at low levels. Strategies are to focus on the 4600 support and use a short - on - rebound approach, and 9 - 1 short - spread. - Ethylene Glycol: Supply is expected to remain low in June, with good supply - demand structure but limited upside due to weak demand. It is expected to trade in a range, and look for 9 - 1 long - spread opportunities. - Short - fiber: Processing fee recovery is limited, and absolute price follows raw materials. Strategies are similar to PTA and expanding the processing fee at low levels. - Bottle - chip: Supply - demand is expected to improve in June, and the processing fee is supported. Strategies are similar to PTA and expanding the processing fee at the lower end of the 350 - 600 yuan/ton range [6]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Caustic Soda: Recent decline is due to cost reduction. Supply has increased overall, but decreased in Shandong. Demand is supported by alumina. Inventory is accumulating in East China. Hold the 7 - 9 long - spread before price cuts or large - scale warehouse - receipt outflows. - PVC: Short - term is in a shock trend, but long - term supply - demand contradiction is prominent. Supply pressure will increase in June, and demand is weak. Adopt a short - selling strategy [11][16]. Styrene Industry - Short - term styrene may fluctuate, and mid - term pay attention to the bearish opportunity from raw material resonance. Downstream 3S profits have improved, and port inventory has decreased slightly, but supply may increase after plant restart [19][22]. PE and PP Industry - PE: Inventory is accumulating at the beginning of the month, with slight destocking in social inventory. Supply and demand are balanced in June, with limited up - and - down drivers. - PP: New capacity will be put into operation in June - July, and demand is in the off - season. There is a large inventory - accumulation pressure. Adopt a short - selling strategy at high prices [26][27]. Urea Industry - High supply is not matched by demand. Agricultural demand has slightly improved but lacks activity, and industrial demand is weakened by the decline in compound fertilizer production. Future trends depend on export policy and market sentiment. [33] Methanol Industry - Supply is abundant with high domestic production and expected high imports. Demand has increased in MTO but with poor downstream profits. Price should be traded in the 2200 - 2350 range, and pay attention to the transition from implicit to explicit inventory accumulation [35]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent rose to $67.04/barrel, WTI to $65.35/barrel, and SC to 479.30 yuan/barrel on June 10. Various spreads such as Brent - WTI and EFS also changed [2]. - **Refined Oil**: NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil prices changed, and their spreads and cracking spreads also had corresponding fluctuations [2]. Polyester Industry - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows**: Prices of POY, FDY, DTY, etc. decreased, and cash flows of some products also declined [6]. - **PX - related**: CFR China PX price decreased, and various PX spreads changed [6]. - **PTA - related**: PTA prices decreased, and its spreads and basis also changed [6]. - **MEG**: Port inventory increased, and to - port expectations changed. Supply and demand are expected to be good in June [6]. - **Industry开工率**: The operating rates of various industries in the polyester chain changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [6]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **PVC and Caustic Soda Prices**: Prices of Shandong caustic soda and East China PVC remained stable or changed slightly, and futures prices also had corresponding fluctuations [11]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: Overseas quotes of caustic soda and PVC remained stable, but export profits changed [12][13]. - **Supply**: Chlor - alkali operating rates and industry profits changed, with PVC operating rate increasing and some profit margins improving [14]. - **Demand**: Operating rates of downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC changed, and PVC pre - sales volume increased [15][16]. - **Inventory**: Inventories of caustic soda and PVC changed, with some accumulating and some remaining stable [16]. Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices**: Prices of Brent crude, CFR Japan naphtha, and CFR China pure benzene increased [19]. - **Styrene Spot and Futures**: Styrene spot and futures prices increased, and basis and month - spreads changed [20]. - **Overseas Quotes and Import Profits**: Overseas quotes of styrene increased, and import profits decreased [21]. - **Industry Operating Rates and Profits**: Operating rates of some industries in the styrene chain changed, and profits of some products improved significantly [22]. - **Inventory**: Inventories of pure benzene and styrene ports and downstream products changed [22]. PE and PP Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of PE and PP changed slightly, and their spreads also had corresponding fluctuations [26]. - **Inventory**: Inventories of PE and PP enterprises and social inventories increased [26]. - **Operating Rates**: Operating rates of PE and PP devices and downstream industries changed [26]. Urea Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Urea futures prices changed, and upstream raw material prices remained stable. Spot prices in different regions decreased [32]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea production decreased slightly, and inventory increased. Agricultural and industrial demands were weak [33]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures and spot prices changed, and various spreads and basis also changed [35]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories increased [35]. - **Operating Rates**: Operating rates of upstream and downstream industries of methanol changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The macro aspect shows that the Sino-US trade negotiations have released positive signals, and their progress should be monitored. In terms of supply and demand, there were many device overhauls in the caustic soda market at the beginning of June. The liquid caustic soda markets in Shandong and East China were both driven by "supply contraction", and the spot quotes were firm. However, the overall scale of overhauls in June was smaller than that of the previous month, and there was still pressure from new production capacity, which suppressed the market. During the week, the terminal demand showed differentiation. The main downstream in Shandong could support the price, but the non-aluminum market resisted high prices, and terminal procurement was inactive. Overall, the supply and demand situation in the liquid caustic soda market has changed little and lacks support. After the caustic soda 2509 contract broke through the lower limit, it should be treated with a bearish mindset. The upper reference pressure level for the caustic soda 2509 contract is around 2,500 yuan/ton, and the lower support level is around 2,200 yuan/ton [4]. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review - **Spot Market**: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong remained stable. The 32% liquid caustic soda basis in Shandong widened. From May 30 to June 5, 2025, the price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong remained at 880 yuan, the price of 50% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda decreased by 10 yuan to 1,410 yuan with a decline of -0.7%, and the price of 99% caustic soda flakes remained at 3,350 yuan. The price of light soda ash decreased by 50 yuan to 1,350 yuan with a decline of -3.57%, the price of alumina increased by 5 yuan to 3,275 yuan with an increase of 0.15%, the price of pulp decreased by 50 yuan to 6,150 yuan with a decline of -0.81%, the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 600 yuan to 69,000 yuan with a decline of -0.86%, while the prices of sea salt, viscose staple fiber, and ternary precursor remained unchanged [9][12][18]. - **Futures Market**: Relevant data on the closing prices of the active contracts of caustic soda, soda ash, alumina, PVC, and the number of warehouse receipts are presented [16]. 02 Market Analysis - **Supply Side - Production and Operating Rate**: From May 30 to June 5, 2025, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 83.5%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.6%. The completion of device overhauls in the Northwest and Central China drove up the load, while new device overhauls and production cuts in North China and South China led to a decline in the load. The load in the Northwest increased by 2.2% to 90.5%, and in Central China, it increased by 6.2% to 90.2%. In North China, the load decreased by 3.7% to 77.1%, and in South China, it decreased by 4.6% to 83.1%. The load in Shandong decreased by 3.3% to 86.4%. It is estimated that the caustic soda capacity utilization rate this week will be around 83.1%, and the weekly output will be around 800,600 tons. Multiple enterprises in North China and South China had device overhauls during the reporting period [20][23]. - **Downstream - Alumina**: The profit margin of alumina has widened, increasing the production willingness of enterprises. Some enterprises completed their overhauls during the reporting period and resumed normal production. As of June 5, the built capacity of alumina in China was 112.4 million tons, the operating capacity was 86.55 million tons, and the operating rate was 77.00% [25]. - **Inventory**: As of June 5, 2025, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in China was 382,100 wet tons, a month-on-month decrease of -2.67% and a year-on-year increase of 5.52%. The capacity utilization ratio of the national liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 23.22%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.06%. The capacity utilization ratios in the Northwest, North China, and East China decreased month-on-month, while those in Central China, Northeast China, South China, and Southwest China increased month-on-month. In North China, after continuous price increases in the Shandong market, high-price non-aluminum purchases decreased. After the Dragon Boat Festival holiday and due to factors such as inventory accumulation in overhauled devices, some areas experienced a slight increase in inventory. However, most enterprises cleared their inventories at the end of the month, driving down the inventory in North China. In East China, the regional supply decreased, non-aluminum industries replenished their inventories at the end and beginning of the month, and the export orders were shipped as needed, resulting in a decline in inventory [30]. - **Liquid Chlorine**: As of June 5, 2025, the average price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was 1 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 101%. A chlor-alkali enterprise in Zibo, Shandong entered overhaul during the week, reducing the market supply and driving up the price of liquid chlorine in the surrounding areas. However, the chlorine-consuming downstream devices in Liaocheng, Shandong were unstable during the week, and some production enterprises reduced their loads to promote sales. As of June 5, the capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises was 80.72%, a month-on-month increase of 2.53% and a year-on-year increase of 5.56%. Among them, the utilization rate of the calcium carbide method was 82.31%, a month-on-month increase of 4.10% and a year-on-year increase of 8.49%; the utilization rate of the ethylene method was 76.53%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.59% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.56%. The average weekly profit of Shandong chlor-alkali enterprises was 635 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 28.28% [34][35].

氯碱日报 | 2025-06-06 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4747元/吨（-87）；华东基差-97元/吨（+87）;华南基差3元/吨（+72）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4650元/吨（+0）；华南电石法报价4750元/吨（-15）。 烧碱厂库延续下降，PVC社库去化速率放缓 上游生产利润：兰炭价格575元/吨（+0）；电石价格2830元/吨（+0）；电石利润80元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-547元/吨（+74）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-505元/吨（+11）；PVC出口利润5.2美元/吨（-2.2）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存38.5万吨（-0.2）；PVC社会库存36.3万吨（-1.5）；PVC电石法开工率79.90%（+4.19%）； PVC乙烯法开工率71.13%（-0.58%）；PVC开工率77.47%（+2.87%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量54.1万吨（-6.3）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2332元/吨（-35）；山东32%液碱基差418元/吨（+35）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价880元/吨（+0）；山东50% ...

交易咨询业务：沪证监许可【2012】 1515号 能化产品周报—烧碱 2025年6月5日 研究员： 屠越海 执业编号:Z0019382 审核：唐韵Z0002422 基本面要点： 价格：6月4日，烧碱主力合约（SH2509）收盘报 2367元 / 吨，较前一交易日下跌1.95%。山东地区32%离子膜碱：市场主流成交价格为840-925 元/吨。50%离子膜碱：主流成交价格为1350-1410元/吨。下游大型氧化铝工厂32%液碱采购价：840元/吨。32%液碱：市场主流成交价格为 930-1020元/吨。48%液碱：市场主流成交价格为1480-1570元/吨。 供给： 本周国内 20 万吨及以上烧碱装置产能利用率为 84.1%，较此前一周环比上升 1.6 个百分点 。 http://www.eafutures.com 免责声明：本报告的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不做任何 保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考， 报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述证券或期货的买卖出价或征价，投资者据此做出 的任何投 资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址：上海市虹口区东大 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Core Views of the Report Polyester Industry - PX: Recent downstream demand and new device commissioning limit short - term downside. Strategies include focusing on 6500 support, 9 - 1 reverse spread, and narrowing PX - SC spread [20]. - PTA: Supply - demand weakens, but short - term support is strong due to raw materials. Strategies are to focus on 4600 support and 9 - 1 reverse spread [20]. - MEG: June supply remains low, with de - stocking expected. Strategies are to focus on 4200 support for EG09 and 9 - 1 positive spread [20]. - Short - fiber: Price and basis are boosted, but processing fee repair is limited. Strategies are similar to PTA for PF and expanding processing fee at low levels [20]. - Bottle - chip: June supply - demand may improve, processing fee is supported. Strategies are similar to PTA for PR and expanding processing fee at the lower end of 350 - 600 yuan/ton [20]. Methanol Industry - Market sentiment recovers, but the driving force is weak. There may be a short - term rebound, but the port's July inventory build - up expectation remains. The unilateral range is 2150 - 2350 [23]. PE and PP Industry - Plastic: Early June maintenance increases, imports are low, and inventory is expected to decline. PP: June maintenance returns, increasing supply pressure. Strategies are to go short on PP at high prices and expect LP spread to expand [31]. Crude Oil Industry - International oil prices rebound and then fall significantly. Short - term, the market is range - bound. Long - term, a band - trading approach is recommended. WTI range is [59, 69], Brent is [61, 71], and SC is [440, 500]. Options can use a straddle structure [36]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Caustic soda: Supply - side contradiction is limited, demand from alumina supports prices. Short - term, spot is strong, and consider expanding the near - month to 09 spread [40]. - PVC: Long - term, supply - demand is weak. Short - term, supply pressure increases, and demand is sluggish. Maintain a short - selling strategy with a range of 4500 - 5000 [40]. Urea Industry - The market has priced in strong supply and weak demand. Future supply contraction, cost support, agricultural demand time - difference, and potential export increase may form a multi - factor resonance [57]. Summary by Related Catalogs Polyester Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent crude (August) on June 4 was 64.86 dollars/barrel, down 0.77 dollars from the previous day. CFR China PX was 852 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar [20]. - **开工率**: Asian PX开工率 was 72.0%, up 2.6% from the previous period. PTA开工率 was 75.7%, down 1.4% [20]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 closing price on June 4 was 2330 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan. The port - to - inland price difference increased [24]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory was 37.049%, up 4.38%. Methanol port inventory was 58.1 million tons, up 11.14% [24]. - **开工率**: Upstream domestic enterprise开工率 was 12%, down 62.5%. Downstream外采MTO装置开工率 was 84.52%, up 1.0% [24]. PE and PP Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601 closing price on June 4 was 7018 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan. The basis of some products decreased [27]. - **Inventory**: PE企业库存 was 51.8 million tons, up 7.41%. PP贸易商库存 was 13.6 million tons, down 11.05% [29][30]. - **开工率**: PE装置开工率 was 76.8%, down 1.51%. PP装置开工率 was 75.4%, down 1.8% [29][30]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent on June 5 was 64.77 dollars/barrel, down 0.09 dollars. The crack spread of some refined oils changed slightly [36]. - **EIA Data**: As of May 30, US crude production was 1340.8 million barrels/day, up 0.7 million barrels/day. Commercial crude inventory decreased by 430.4 million barrels [44]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda equivalent price was 2750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The export profit of caustic soda decreased [40]. - **开工率**: Caustic soda industry开工率 was 87.2%, up 0.4%. PVC总开工率 was 74.6%, up 1.5% [40]. - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory was 20.8 million tons, up 1.8%. PVC总社会库存 was 36.3 million tons, down 1.5% [40]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: 01 contract closing price on June 4 was 1706 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The spread between some contracts changed [51][52]. - **Inventory**: Domestic urea internal inventory was 103.54 million tons, up 5.48%. Port inventory was 20.50 million tons, unchanged [57]. - **开工率**: Urea production factory开工率 was 90.16%, up 0.63% [57].