大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年8月份国内沥青总计划排产量为241.3万吨，环比降幅5.1%,同比 增幅17.1%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为37.3921%，环比增加0.359个百分点，全国样 本企业出货25.335万吨，环比增加14.48%,样本企业产量为62.4万吨，环比增加0.97%,样本企 业装置检修量预估为61.6万吨，环比减少1.44%,本周炼厂有所增产，提升供应压力。下周或将 增加供给压力。 2025年10月21日 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为35.8%，环比增加0.04个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥青 开工率为18.2%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Asphalt Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: October 21, 2025 [3] 1. Futures Contract Information - **Price Changes**: The closing price of the BU main contract on September 19 was 3420, dropping to 3156 on October 17, a daily change of -44 and a weekly change of -314. Different contract months (BU10 - BU03) also showed varying degrees of price declines [4]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume increased from 246,616 on September 19 to 312,542 on October 17, with a daily increase of 43,198 and a weekly increase of 68,738. The open interest rose from 409,431 to 358,277, with a daily increase of 4,924 and a weekly increase of 11,368 [4]. 2. Spot Market Information - **Market Prices**: Market prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Northeast) all declined to varying degrees. For example, the Shandong market price decreased from 3520 on September 19 to 3380 on October 17, a daily decrease of 40 and a weekly decrease of 80 [4]. - **Warehouse Prices**: Prices at various warehouses (Zhenjiang, Foshan, Hongrun, Jingbo) also declined. For instance, the Zhenjiang warehouse price dropped from 3470 to 3320, a daily decrease of 30 and a weekly decrease of 30 [4]. 3. Basis and Calendar Spread Information - **Basis**: The basis in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China) generally increased. For example, the Shandong basis (+80) climbed from 149 to 285, with a daily increase of 114 [4]. - **Calendar Spread**: Calendar spreads between different contract months (10 - 11, 10 - 12, etc.) showed different trends, with some spreads narrowing and others widening. For example, the 10 - 11 spread decreased from 180 to -78, a weekly decrease of 258 [4]. 4. Crack Spread and Profit Information - **Crack Spread**: The asphalt - Brent crack spread decreased from 244 to 193, a daily decrease of 52 [4]. - **Profit**: Profits of different types of refineries (asphalt - Ma Rui, ordinary refineries, Ma Rui - type refineries) also showed different trends. For example, the asphalt - Ma Rui profit decreased from 155 to 109, a daily decrease of 46 [4]. 5. Related Product Price Information - **Crude Oil**: The price of Brent crude oil decreased from 63.3 to 61.3, a daily increase of 0.2 and a weekly decrease of 2.0 [4]. - **Gasoline and Diesel**: The Shandong market prices of gasoline and diesel also declined. The gasoline price dropped from 7387 to 7281, a daily decrease of 39 and a weekly decrease of 106 [4].

Group 1 - The core transaction on October 20 involved a block trade of 13.3976 million shares of Hengli Petrochemical, with a transaction value of 220 million yuan, at a price of 16.41 yuan, representing a premium of 0.86% over the closing price of the day [2][3] - In the last three months, Hengli Petrochemical has recorded a total of 10 block trades, with a cumulative transaction value of 1.77 billion yuan [2] - The closing price of Hengli Petrochemical on the day of the transaction was 16.27 yuan, reflecting a decline of 0.85%, with a daily turnover rate of 0.20% and a total trading volume of 235 million yuan [2] Group 2 - The latest margin financing balance for Hengli Petrochemical stands at 2.968 billion yuan, having increased by 153 million yuan over the past five days, marking a growth rate of 5.45% [3] - The company was established on March 9, 1999, with a registered capital of approximately 7039.10 million yuan [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil processing industry, consistent with the previous rating [1]. Core Insights - International oil prices have declined due to various factors, including trade tensions between the US and China, which have created a volatile market environment. As of October 17, 2025, Brent and WTI crude oil prices were $61.29 and $57.15 per barrel, respectively [2][9]. - The report highlights a significant increase in global oil supply, with the IEA forecasting a more severe oversupply situation for the coming year [2]. - The US crude oil production reached 13.636 million barrels per day, showing a slight increase of 0.07 million barrels per day from the previous week [2][50]. - The report notes a decrease in US refinery crude processing to 15.130 million barrels per day, down by 1.167 million barrels per day, with a refinery utilization rate of 85.70%, a decline of 6.7 percentage points [2][62]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - Brent crude futures settled at $61.29 per barrel, down $1.44 (-2.30%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures settled at $57.15 per barrel, down $1.75 (-2.97%) [2][19]. Offshore Drilling Services - As of October 13, 2025, the number of global offshore self-elevating drilling platforms was 373, an increase of 2 from the previous week, while the number of floating drilling platforms remained stable at 132 [2][29]. Crude Oil Supply - The US crude oil production was reported at 13.636 million barrels per day, with the number of active drilling rigs remaining at 418 [2][50]. Crude Oil Demand - US refinery crude processing decreased to 15.130 million barrels per day, with a utilization rate of 85.70% [2][62]. Crude Oil Inventory - As of October 10, 2025, total US crude oil inventories stood at 832 million barrels, an increase of 4.284 million barrels (+0.52%) from the previous week [2][63]. Related Companies - Key companies in the sector include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) [2][3].

Core Viewpoint - As of October 17, 2025, International Industry (000159) closed at 5.81 yuan, down 1.36% from the previous week's 5.89 yuan, indicating a slight decline in stock performance [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - The highest intraday price for International Industry on October 14 was 5.97 yuan, while the lowest intraday price on October 13 was 5.57 yuan [1] - The current total market capitalization of International Industry is 2.793 billion yuan, ranking 61 out of 64 in the photovoltaic equipment sector and 4568 out of 5158 in the A-share market [1] Group 2: Shareholder Changes - As of October 10, 2025, the number of shareholders for the company was 41,600, an increase of 107 from September 30, representing a growth rate of 0.26% [2] - The average number of shares held per shareholder decreased from 11,600 shares to 11,500 shares [2] - The average market value of shares held per shareholder is 68,000 yuan [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 37.0326%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14 percentage points. The shipments of sample enterprises decreased by 29.38% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 2.98% month - on - month. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment increased by 1.96% month - on - month. Refineries reduced production this week, and supply pressure may be reduced next week [8]. - Demand side: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The开工 rate of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane is either decreasing or flat month - on - month and lower than the historical average [9]. - Cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 345.85 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 24.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 882.4386 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 12.29%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the price in the short term [9]. - Overall expectation: The fundamentals are bullish, the basis is bullish, the inventory is neutral, the market is bearish, and the main positions are bearish. It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2601 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3258 - 3300 [9][10][11]. - Influencing factors: Bullish factors include relatively high crude oil costs; bearish factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and overall downward demand with strengthened expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply side: The supply pressure remains high, and refineries have reduced production to relieve supply pressure [8][15]. - Demand side: The demand recovery is weak, and the overall demand is lower than the historical average [9][15]. - Cost side: The strengthening of crude oil provides short - term support, and the asphalt processing loss has decreased [9]. - Market expectation: Narrow - range fluctuations in the short term, with the asphalt 2601 contract fluctuating between 3258 - 3300 [10]. - Influencing factors: Bullish: relatively high crude oil costs; Bearish: insufficient demand for high - priced goods and overall downward demand [13][14]. 3.2 Fundamentals/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply - side Data - Planned production: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1% [8]. - Capacity utilization rate: This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 37.0326%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14 percentage points [8]. - Shipments: The shipments of sample enterprises were 221,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 29.38% [8]. - Output: The output of sample enterprises was 618,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.98% [8]. - Maintenance volume: The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 625,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.96% [8]. 3.2.2 Demand - side Data - Downstream开工 rates: The开工 rates of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane are all lower than the historical average, with some showing month - on - month decreases [9]. 3.2.3 Cost - side Data - Processing profit: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 345.85 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 24.00%; the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 882.4386 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 12.29% [9]. 3.2.4 Inventory Data - Social inventory: 1.058 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.30% [11]. - Factory inventory: 690,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.48% [11]. - Port diluted asphalt inventory: 120,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.69% [11]. 3.2.5 Market Data - Futures prices: The prices of different contracts showed varying degrees of increase or decrease [18]. - Basis: On October 16, the spot price in Shandong was 3420 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 258 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [11]. - Main positions: The main positions were net short, and short positions increased [11].

Core Points - Shandong Molong (002490) held its eighth temporary board meeting on October 16, 2025, where two significant proposals were approved [1][2] Group 1: Governance Structure Changes - The company plans to adjust its governance structure by abolishing the supervisory board and its members, transferring the supervisory board's powers to the audit committee of the board [2] - The company will also revise its articles of association and related documents, changing the name of the "Shareholders' Meeting Rules" to "Shareholder Meeting Rules" [2] - This proposal requires approval from more than two-thirds of the voting rights held by shareholders present at the upcoming extraordinary general meeting [2] Group 2: Upcoming Shareholder Meeting - The board has agreed to convene the 2025 First Extraordinary General Meeting on November 3, 2025, at 2:00 PM in the company meeting room [2] - Details regarding the meeting will be disclosed in a notification published on the same day [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report No clear core view is presented in the given content. The report mainly provides various data on asphalt, including contract prices, trading volumes, market prices, basis, and spreads. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Contracts - The prices of most BU contracts decreased on October 15 compared to the previous day, with BU10 remaining unchanged. For example, BU11 decreased by 40 to 3250, and BU01 decreased by 13 to 3154 [4]. - The trading volume on October 15 was 262,129, an increase of 18,325 from the previous day and 32,331 from the previous week. The open interest was 346,507, a decrease of 402 from the previous day but an increase of 29,572 from the previous week [4]. Market Prices - Market prices in different regions generally showed a downward trend. For instance, the Shandong market price decreased by 10 to 3450, and the Northeast market price decreased by 30 to 3720 [4]. - The price differences between regions also changed. The Shandong - Northeast price difference increased by 20 to -270, and the East China - South China price difference remained at 70 [4]. Basis and Spread - Most basis values increased. For example, the Shandong basis (+80) increased by 50 to 240, and the South China basis increased by 30 to 80 [4]. - The spread between different contract months also changed significantly. For example, the 10 - 11 spread increased by 40 to 220, and the 10 - 12 spread increased by 27 to 286 [4]. Crack Spread and Profit - The asphalt Brent crack spread increased by 38 to 199, and the asphalt MRE profit increased by 35 to 113. The comprehensive profit of ordinary refineries increased by 21 to 527, and the comprehensive profit of MRE - type refineries increased by 26 to 915 [4]. - The import profit from South Korea to East China and from Singapore to South China remained unchanged at -268 and -994 respectively [4].

Group 1 - In the first half of 2025, Jilin Province's industrial enterprises produced 152,000 tons of petroleum coke, representing a 27.8% increase compared to the same period in 2024, with a growth rate 48.7 percentage points higher than 2024 and 32.3 percentage points higher than the national average [1] - In June 2025, Jilin Province's petroleum coke production reached 29,000 tons, marking a 44.2% increase year-on-year, with a growth rate 66.4 percentage points higher than June 2024 and 46.6 percentage points higher than the national average [2] - Jilin Province accounted for approximately 1.0% of the national petroleum coke production of 15,674,000 tons in the first half of 2025 and about 1.1% of the national production of 2,549,000 tons in June 2025 [1][2]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is affected by factors such as the recovery of Russian refineries and the increase in Middle - East exports due to the decline in power - generation demand. The demand side shows that summer power - generation demand has completely subsided, and feedstock demand support is not obvious under the background of high - sulfur cracking decline and low - cost tax reform. High - sulfur near - end inventory at a high level still suppresses market prices. Attention should be paid to the generation of new warehouse receipts and the subsequent inventory digestion rhythm for high - sulfur near - month contracts. [7] - The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil has short - term disturbances. The operation of the Nigerian RFCC device is unstable, and it is reported to have returned in the past two weeks. There is an expected increase in the logistics redirection of low - sulfur heavy raw materials to the Pan - Singapore area due to the conflict between South Sudan and the UAE, but there have been no new tenders since September. The Al - Zour refinery maintains high - level low - sulfur shipments but is affected by the UAE diversion recently. The return of Malaysian refineries increases some low - sulfur straight - run supply. In the Chinese market, the third batch of low - sulfur quotas has been issued, with Sinopec and PetroChina expected to have sufficient quotas in the fourth quarter without increasing production, while CNOOC expects a tight quota. Ship - fuel demand is stable without specific drivers. [7][9] Group 3: Summary by Directory Part 1: Relevant Data - **Futures Prices and Positions**: On October 15, 2025, the price of FU main contract was 2683, down 17 from the previous day; the position was 258,000 lots, up 0.5 lots. The price of LU main contract was 3155, down 48 from the previous day; the position was 66,000 lots, up 0.1 lots. [3] - **Warehouse Receipts**: FU warehouse receipts were 45,800 tons, unchanged from the previous day; LU warehouse receipts were 13,080 tons, unchanged from the previous day. [3] - **Spreads**: FU1 - 5 was 30, unchanged; LU12 - 1 was - 4, down 11; LU - FU main contract spread was 472, down 31; FU01 - outer - market 12 was 9.8, up 0.1; LU12 - outer - market 11 was 9.0, down 0.7. [3] Part 2: Market Judgement - **Important Information**: Russian seaborne crude oil shipments climbed to a 28 - month high in the past four weeks, mainly due to increased production and Ukrainian attacks on refineries, forcing the redirection of crude oil supply to export terminals. [6] - **Market Analysis**: The supply and demand of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are affected by multiple factors as described in the core viewpoints. [7][9] Part 3: Relevant Attachments - The report includes figures such as Singapore high - sulfur and low - sulfur spot premiums, high - and low - sulfur spreads, and fuel - oil cracking spreads, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and Reuters. [10]