【博时市场点评7月10日】沪指站上3500点，房地产板块领涨 每日观点 7月9日，国家发改委介绍"十四五"成就表示，"十四五"中国经济增量预计超35万亿元，今年经济总量预 计可以达到140万亿元左右。过去4年内需对经济增长的平均贡献率为86.4%，其中最终消费对中国经济 增长的平均贡献率达到56.2%。 简评："十四五"期间我国经济维持快速增长，总量及增量迎来量级突破，彰显大国经济韧性，经济社会 发展取得了新的开创性进展、突破性变革、历史性成就。与此同时，中国经济在体量跃升中完成动能转 换，消费升级与高效投资形成双向拉动，内循环根基显著夯实，内需成为核心引擎，为中长期抵御外部 波动、实现高质量增长奠定基础。 美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台上发布致8个国家领导人有关加征关税的信函。其中，巴西将被征收 50%的关税，利比亚、伊拉克、阿尔及利亚和斯里兰卡将被征收30%的关税，文莱和摩尔多瓦的税率是 25%，菲律宾的税率是20%。新税率将从8月1日起生效。 7月10日，A股三大指数上涨。截至收盘，上证指数报3509.68点，上涨0.48%；深证成指报10631.13点， 上涨0.47%；创业板指报2189.58点，上涨 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.36% as of the morning close, with a trading volume of 783.11 million shares and a transaction amount of 934.47 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.50% compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Real estate, banking, and oil & petrochemicals sectors showed the highest gains, with increases of 1.53%, 1.42%, and 1.23% respectively [1] - The automotive, defense, and electronics sectors experienced the largest declines, with decreases of 0.93%, 0.92%, and 0.76% respectively [2] Leading Stocks - In the real estate sector, Yuhua Development led with a gain of 9.94% [1] - In the banking sector, Minsheng Bank rose by 5.12% [1] - In the oil & petrochemicals sector, *ST Xinchao increased by 5.08% [1] - In the steel sector, Jinling Mining surged by 10.02% [1] - In the non-bank financial sector, Nanhua Futures also rose by 10.02% [1] - In the pharmaceutical sector, Qianyuan Pharmaceutical saw a significant increase of 19.98% [1] Sector Summary - The real estate sector had a transaction amount of 117.03 billion yuan, up 26.74% from the previous day [1] - The banking sector recorded a transaction amount of 266.82 billion yuan, up 36.61% [1] - The oil & petrochemicals sector had a transaction amount of 80.95 billion yuan, up 36.47% [1] - The automotive sector had a transaction amount of 389.36 billion yuan, down 16.50% [2] - The defense sector recorded a transaction amount of 316.85 billion yuan, down 23.79% [2] - The electronics sector had a transaction amount of 1,036.63 billion yuan, down 10.88% [2]

证券时报·数据宝统计，截至上午10:28，今日沪指涨0.34%，A股成交量550.19亿股，成交金额6489.82亿 元，比上一个交易日减少8.50%。个股方面，2399只个股上涨，其中涨停42只，2749只个股下跌，其中 跌停4只。从申万行业来看，房地产、银行、石油石化等涨幅最大，涨幅分别为1.24%、1.19%、 0.97%；国防军工、纺织服饰、汽车等跌幅最大，跌幅分别为1.24%、0.78%、0.78%。（数据宝） | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 房地产 | 1.24 | 88.46 | 37.10 | 渝开发 | 9.94 | | 银行 | 1.19 | 153.25 | 17.78 | 民生银行 | 4.93 | | 石油石化 | 0.97 | 48.87 | 16.65 | *ST新潮 | 5.08 | | 医药生物 | 0.91 | 564.34 | 12.52 | 仟源医药 | 19.98 | | 非银金融 | 0.88 | 303.3 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market shows signs of recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3,500 points, attracting attention to foreign capital movements, particularly northbound funds [1] - As of the end of Q2 2025, northbound funds held a total of 2,907 A-shares, with a total shareholding of 1,232.08 billion shares, an increase of 41.19 billion shares from the previous quarter and 7.22 billion shares from the end of 2024 [2] - The total market value of northbound funds reached 2.289 trillion yuan, an increase of 537 billion yuan from the previous quarter and 871 billion yuan from the end of 2024, indicating a significant increase in investment in the A-share market [2] Group 2 - The industry with the largest increase in shareholding by northbound funds in Q2 2025 was enterprise services, with a growth of 38%, followed by telecommunications services at 27% and national defense at 26% [2] - Conversely, the industries with the largest decrease in shareholding were hardware equipment, down 15%, and home appliances and textiles, both down 13% [2] Group 3 - The stocks with the highest market value held by northbound funds as of June 2025 included CATL, Kweichow Moutai, Midea Group, and others, with CATL and Kweichow Moutai each exceeding 100 billion yuan in market value [3] - The three companies with the most significant changes in market value held by northbound funds were CATL, Hengrui Medicine, and Dongpeng Beverage, all of which have recently listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [3][4] Group 4 - The decline in AH share premiums indicates a narrowing price gap between A-shares and H-shares, enhancing market efficiency and providing a fairer investment environment [5][7] - The decrease in AH share premiums may influence the allocation of northbound funds between A-shares and H-shares, shifting focus towards the fundamentals and industry outlook rather than short-term price differences [7][8]

证券研究报告 2025 年 7 月 10 日 星期四 【A 股市场大势研判】 大盘冲高回落，沪指 3500 点得而复失 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3493.05 | -0.13% | -4.43 | | | 深证成指 | 10581.80 | -0.06% | -6.60 | | | 沪深 300 | 3991.40 | -0.18% | -7.05 | | | 创业板 | 2184.67 | 0.16% | 3.60 | | | 科创 50 | 983.11 | -0.89% | -8.84 | | | 北证 50 | 1410.36 | -0.75% | -10.63 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万行业表现前五 | | | 申万行业表现后五 | 概 | 念板块表现前五 | 概念板块表现后五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 传媒 | 1.35% ...

专栏：投教学苑Π 上半年市场复盘： 科技与新消费双轮驱动，结构性行情凸显 立足自主可控和新消费，锚定三大核心主线 2025年上半年，A股在内外扰动中走出分化格局，A股市场震荡走高，主要股指均呈上涨态势，万得全 A累计上涨5.83%，但小盘风格显著占优，北证50（+39.45%）、微盘指数（+36.41%）领涨，中证 2000、中证1000均累涨超5%，高弹性资产受到资金追逐。 【2025上半年万得全A上涨5.83%，风格上小盘相对占优】 数据来源：Wind，统计区间为2025.1.1-2025.6.30，指数历史涨跌幅不预示其未来表现。 行业层面，在全球贵金属价格持续走高的背景下，上半年有色金属以18.12%的涨幅位居行业涨幅榜榜 首，银行（+13.10%）、国防军工（+12.99%）分列涨幅前三。DeepSeek技术突破引发AI产业链共振， 人工智能、机器人、数字货币等概念轮番表现，高股息板块（如银行）和科技成长板块形成"哑铃两 端"，成为市场核心主线。 【申万一级行业上半年涨跌幅%】 数据来源：Wind，统计 区间为2025.1.1-2025.6.30，指数历史涨跌幅不预示其未来表现。 下半年展望 主线一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recently passed "Big Beautiful" bill is significantly transforming the American business landscape, redefining the winners and losers among various industries [1] Private Equity and Fossil Fuels - The private equity industry, valued at $13 trillion, is one of the biggest beneficiaries of the bill, retaining the "carried interest" tax loophole [2][3] - This loophole allows traders to pay performance profit taxes at a lower long-term capital gains tax rate, saving the industry billions annually [3] - The bill also extends fixed debt interest tax deductions and depreciation benefits, lowering tax rates for many private equity-backed companies [4] Retail Industry - The bill reduces federal food assistance, with the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) expected to see a $9 billion cut next year, impacting grocery spending [5][6] - Companies like Conagra, Kellogg, and Kraft Heinz may face sales pressure due to their reliance on SNAP user spending [6] - The bill eliminates tariff exemptions for imported goods valued under $800, benefiting brick-and-mortar retailers while pressuring small businesses [6] Healthcare Industry - The healthcare sector avoided severe cuts, with Medicaid funding reductions being less than anticipated [7][8] - For-profit hospital chains like Tenet Healthcare and HCA Healthcare saw stock price increases, although predictions indicate that 11.8 million Americans may lose health insurance by 2034 [8] - Smaller hospitals, heavily reliant on Medicaid, may struggle more than larger institutions [9] Energy Sector - The energy industry is experiencing a split impact, with coal unexpectedly benefiting from tax credits for metallurgical coal production [10] - Zero-carbon energy sources like geothermal and nuclear retain substantial tax credits, while many solar and wind projects will lose investment and production tax credits [10] - The cancellation of electric vehicle tax incentives may lead to contractor bankruptcies, as the total credits for 2023 amount to $8.4 billion [10] Technology Sector - The technology sector, particularly companies like Tesla, faces significant challenges due to the loss of electric vehicle tax incentives and new AI regulations [11] - Private aerospace companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin benefit from provisions allowing municipal bond financing for spaceports [11] Defense Industry - The defense sector is a major winner, with an additional $150 billion in budget increases, pushing total defense spending towards $1 trillion [12][13] - Traditional defense contractors like Lockheed Martin and emerging tech firms like Anduril and Palantir are expected to benefit from increased funding for missile defense and naval capabilities [13] Higher Education - The bill imposes an 8% tax on investment income for wealthy universities, affecting only 16 institutions, with Harvard expected to lose $267 million annually [14] - Cuts to student loans and support may indirectly raise university costs, straining state funding for public universities [14]

Core Insights - European aerospace and defense stocks have reached an all-time high, with intraday gains exceeding 1% [1] Group 1 - The aerospace and defense sector is experiencing significant upward momentum, indicating strong investor confidence [1] - This milestone reflects broader trends in the industry, potentially driven by increased defense spending and demand for aerospace innovations [1]

为什么这事突然成为紧急议题？这里面不得不说最近真实发生的"多线威胁"：比如2024年发生的波罗的海天然气管道疑似破 坏、欧洲多国通讯链路遭受激烈网络攻击，更不用说德国国防部长最近明确警告"未来4年可能有欧盟成员国遭受实质性军事袭 击"。这些信息，拼凑出的画风非常凛冽——不只是战场战火，混合威胁（Physical+Cyber）才是欧盟官员心头最大的噩梦。 说实话，以前大部分人觉得稀土矿啥的离民众生活很远。其实不然！你手中的智能手机、电动汽车，还是医院那些高端医疗设 备，基本都离不开稀土里的钕、镝这些金属。而欧洲生产这类高端工业品，绝大部分原料还全靠进口（80%以上来自中国）， 只要亚洲某地一有风吹草动，欧洲就得"提心吊胆"。 "刚刚，欧盟内部传出一则消息，让整个矿业和能源领域集体'炸锅'——欧盟正酝酿一项史无前例的'紧急战略储备'计划，连稀 土矿物、永磁体、电缆维保模块这些听起来异常专业的备品，都要统统囤上一批！有人说，这背后藏着欧盟对战争和地缘不确 定性的最大恐惧。到底发生了什么，让27国集团如此如临大敌？" 自2022年俄乌冲突爆发后，欧洲的能源"痛点"彻底暴露：供暖季缺气、军工原料告急、关键设备一旦断供全 ...

策略+军工 如何看待当前时点军工投资机会？20250708 摘要 军工板块受益于内外部需求双重驱动，海外市场利润率提升，地缘政治 紧张及政策支持等多重因素，估值有望提升，是当前值得看多的板块之 一。 中国武器出口潜力巨大，可能放宽限制，从单兵装备到系统化解决方案， 有望实现数量级增长，并显著提升利润率，军贸打开全球局面，重点发 展船舶、坦克、导弹、飞机等领域。 多重催化剂推动军工板块发展，包括地缘政治紧张、各国增加军事预算、 中国顶层设计支持（如低空经济、深海探索、可控核聚变）以及国内反 腐接近尾声带来的需求释放。 今年是十四五规划最后一年，各军兵种正加速完成任务，预计中报业绩 将超预期，部分任务量可能延至明年，若十五五订单超预期，将进一步 支撑业绩增长。 军工行业存在高低切换机会，关注中航西飞、中直股份等低位标的，水 下作战领域结合深海科技是未来重点，关注中国海防，以及无人智能装 备领域，如东兵、一机集团。 Q&A 当前时点如何看待军工板块的投资机会？ 我们坚定看好当前时点的军工板块。首先，从年度和季度的基本面来看，军工 行业业绩预期反转明显，具备较强的成长动量。短期内，军工板块在交易面上 也表现出色，成长 ...