[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 09 月 25 日 策略点评 证券分析师 程强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 高位震荡分化格局延续 资料来源：Wind，德邦研究所 1）股票市场：高位震荡，宁德时代市值超越贵州茅台 高位震荡，创业板领涨。今日 A 股市场呈现结构性分化特征，1474 家上涨、3875 家下跌。创业板指延续强势表现，全天上涨 1.58%至 3235.76 点，再创阶段新高； 上证指数微跌 0.01%，收于 3853.30 点。市场成交保持活跃，全天成交额 2.39 万 亿，较前一交易日小幅放量。 宁德时代市值超越茅台。行业层面，科技成长板块走强，服务器、半导体硅片、铜 产业、核聚变等板块领涨，周期类板块表现低迷，家电、煤炭、银行等板块跌幅居 前，市场呈现"科技权重搭台、题材唱戏"的格局。个股层面， ...

Group 1: Stock Market Activity - 28 stocks were listed on the institutional trading leaderboard, with 12 stocks seeing net buying and 16 stocks experiencing net selling [1] - The top three stocks with the highest net buying by institutions were: Lixing Co., Ltd. (1.45 billion), Inspur Information (1.3 billion), and Heng'erda (1.06 billion) [1] Group 2: Key Stocks Overview - Lixing Co., Ltd. (300421.SZ) saw a price increase of 7.05% with 4 buyers and 1 seller [2] - Inspur Information (000977.SZ) experienced a price increase of 9.99, with 1 buyer and 1 seller [2] - Heng'erda had 4 institutions net buying 1.06 billion, and the company is actively promoting the localization of high-precision thread grinding machines and the industrialization of ball screws and planetary roller screws [3] Group 3: Industry Developments - Alibaba Cloud is expanding its global infrastructure, adding data centers in Brazil, France, and the Netherlands, supported by nine departments for establishing international data centers and cloud computing centers in various regions [3] - Inspur Information has maintained the top position in China's liquid cooling server market for three consecutive years, with over 700 core patents in liquid cooling technology [3] - China Fusion Company is set to build a fusion experimental device in Shanghai to verify its high-temperature superconducting magnets [5] - Shanghai Electric is actively involved in the nuclear fusion industry, focusing on the mainstream research direction of magnetic confinement with Tokamak technology [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company is facing investor concerns regarding its stock price performance amidst a rising storage sector, questioning its commitment to R&D and market opportunities related to AI [1] Group 1: Company Performance and Investor Relations - The company's stock price fluctuations are influenced by macroeconomic factors, industry cycles, market sentiment, and investor preferences [1] - The company acknowledges investor expectations and states that business progress is affected by various objective factors, while its operational status remains normal [1] - The company is actively pursuing project collaborations and order opportunities, particularly in the context of the Shaoguan data center cluster development [1] Group 2: Business Development and Market Strategy - The company's wholly-owned subsidiary, Shaoguan Ruyuan Langkun Technology Co., Ltd., is expanding its server sales business and has signed small batch orders with partial deliveries [1] - Currently, this server sales business has not significantly impacted the company's financial performance, but future project developments will be disclosed in accordance with legal obligations if they meet disclosure standards [1]

Group 1 - The A-share ChiNext index reached a three-year high, driven by strong performances in sectors such as gaming, AI applications, nuclear fusion, and computing hardware [1][4] - Technology stocks showed significant gains, with major players like Inspur Information and Zhongke Shuguang hitting historical highs [1][4] - The copper sector also experienced a surge, with companies like Jingyi Co. and Luoyang Molybdenum hitting their daily limit [3] Group 2 - Recent favorable developments for technology stocks include the announcement of a nationwide computing power identification system, enhancing the efficiency of public computing resources [6] - Alibaba's collaboration with NVIDIA and its commitment to a 380 billion yuan investment in AI infrastructure are expected to boost the AI sector [7] - Market research indicates a substantial growth forecast for the global big data IT investment, projected to reach approximately $413.4 billion by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 16.4% [7][8] Group 3 - Three new stocks listed on the ChiNext saw significant first-day gains, with N Jianfa Zhi rising by 418.58% [9][11] - N Jianfa Zhi, a high-value medical device distributor, reported projected revenues of 118.82 billion yuan for 2022, increasing to 179.23 billion yuan by 2024 [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent surge in A-share market, particularly in technology stocks, with significant gains in sectors such as gaming, AI applications, nuclear fusion, and computing hardware, indicating a bullish market trend [3][5][6]. Market Performance - The ChiNext Index reached a three-year high, with technology stocks leading the gains. Notable performers include Inspur Information, which hit a daily limit with a transaction amount of 7.73 billion yuan, and Zhongke Shuguang, which rose over 6% to reach a historical high [3][6]. - The overall market saw the Shanghai Composite Index slightly decline by 0.01%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.67%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 1.58%. The total market turnover was 2.39 trillion yuan, an increase of 446 billion yuan from the previous trading day [5][6]. Sector Highlights - The technology sector showed strong performance with multiple sub-sectors, including servers, computers, semiconductors, and ultra-broadband technology, experiencing significant gains. Leading technology stocks such as CATL, Inspur Information, and Zhongke Shuguang reached historical highs [6][9]. - The copper sector also saw substantial gains, with companies like Precision Instrument and Luoyang Molybdenum hitting their daily limits. The main copper futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose over 3% [5][9]. New Listings - Three new stocks listed on the ChiNext, namely N Jianfa, N Lianhe, and N Jinhua, experienced remarkable first-day gains of 418.58%, 147.6%, and 133%, respectively. N Jianfa's closing price was 36.56 yuan, with a market capitalization of 15.402 billion yuan [12][14]. Industry Catalysts - Recent announcements, such as the establishment of a national computing power internet service platform and policies to support data centers and cloud computing, are expected to boost the technology sector. Alibaba's collaboration with NVIDIA and significant investments in AI infrastructure further indicate a positive outlook for the industry [9][10]. - Market research indicates that global big data IT investment is projected to reach approximately 413.4 billion USD by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 16.4% expected until 2029, suggesting a favorable environment for related companies [9][10].

牛市来了还没上车？上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限 量发放！先到先得！ 9 月 25 日上午， A 股三大股指集体上涨。截至午间收盘，沪指涨 0.16% ，深证成指涨 1.14% ，创业板指涨 2.22% 。 沪深两市半日成交额超 1.5 万亿元，较上个交易日放量 1397 亿元。市场共 2045 只个股上 涨， 44 只个股涨停， 3243 只个股下跌。 从板块看，电脑硬件、通信设备、互联网、电工电网、贵金属板块均涨超 2% ，而燃气、港 口、工程机械、公路、海运等板块走弱。 | | | | Wind热门概念指数 | | | | | | Wind中国行业指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 服务器 | 半导体硅片 | 拼多多合 | 铜产业 | Kimi | 网络游戏 | 电脑硬件 | 综合类 | 通信设备 | 互联网 | 电工电网 | 贵金属 | | 4.13% | 3.36% | 3.34% | 2.94% | 2.72% | 2.58 ...

Core Viewpoint - A-shares experienced a collective rise, with the ChiNext Index increasing over 2%, marking a significant moment as CATL's market value surpassed Kweichow Moutai's [1][4][5]. Market Performance - As of the midday close on September 25, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.16%, the Shenzhen Component increased by 1.14%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 2.22% [1]. - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 1.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 139.7 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2]. - A total of 2045 stocks rose, with 44 hitting the daily limit up, while 3243 stocks declined [2]. Sector Performance - The computer hardware, communication equipment, internet, electrical grid, and precious metals sectors all saw gains exceeding 2%, while sectors such as gas, ports, engineering machinery, highways, and shipping weakened [2]. - The server concept index led the market with a rise of 3.88%, and the cloud computing index increased by over 3% [8]. Notable Stocks - CATL's stock price reached 398.86 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 1.8327 trillion yuan, marking a 4.98% increase [4]. - Kweichow Moutai's stock price slightly decreased to 1441.03 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 1.8046 trillion yuan [5]. - Notable gains were observed in AI hardware stocks, with Inspur Information hitting the daily limit up and rising 10% [11]. Policy and Industry Developments - The Jilin provincial government issued implementation opinions to accelerate AI innovation, aiming for a computing power scale exceeding 5000 PFLOPS by the end of 2027 [12]. - Alibaba announced a partnership with NVIDIA for Physical AI and plans to invest an additional 380 billion yuan in AI infrastructure [12]. - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments released guidelines to promote digital consumption, supporting the development of vertical e-commerce [18]. Commodities and Supply Chain - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a strong rally, particularly in copper, driven by supply concerns following a fatal landslide at Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine [20][21].

Group 1: Strategy Observation - The report highlights a recovery in the prices of domestic cyclical goods and an improvement in service consumption, particularly in first-tier cities where real estate sales have shown significant growth [1][11] - The construction demand has marginally improved, supported by ongoing anti-involution policies in industries like steel and coal, leading to price increases in coal, steel, and glass [1][11] - Service consumption has seen a month-on-month increase, with tourism in Hainan showing signs of recovery and a substantial rebound in movie box office revenues due to new film releases [1][11] Group 2: Downstream Consumption - Real estate sales in 30 major cities increased by 20.3% year-on-year, with first-tier cities seeing a 68.8% increase in transaction area [2][12] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles grew by 1.0% year-on-year, with a slight easing of price pressures in the car market [2][12] - The service consumption index in Hainan rose by 1.3% month-on-month, and movie box office revenues surged by 364.6% month-on-month and 149.0% year-on-year [2][12] Group 3: Midstream Manufacturing - Construction demand has shown slight improvement, with policies supporting steady growth in the steel industry leading to minor price increases [3][13] - Manufacturing activity has generally improved, with increased operating rates in sectors like automotive and chemicals [3][13] - Long-distance passenger transport demand has improved, with logistics activity also showing a month-on-month increase [3][13] Group 4: Upstream Resources - Coal prices have risen by 3.5% due to tight supply and pre-holiday stockpiling needs [3][13] - Industrial metal prices are under pressure due to weak domestic demand and hawkish signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve [3][13] Group 5: Company-Specific Insights on Supermicro - Supermicro is positioned uniquely in the market, combining independent product development with custom manufacturing capabilities, distinguishing it from traditional OEM and ODM models [5][26] - The company is expected to see significant revenue growth, with projected total revenues of $31.82 billion, $38.44 billion, and $49.55 billion for 2026E to 2028E [5][25] - Supermicro's product performance is notable, with its AI server product line keeping pace with chip updates, and it actively collaborates with the open-source community to optimize AI cluster software [5][27]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Cautious Accumulate" rating to the company [2][25]. Core Insights - The competitive landscape is diversifying, with growth driven by AI technology, indicating significant industry potential [3]. - The company is positioned uniquely in the market, combining self-developed products with customized manufacturing capabilities, distinguishing it from traditional OEM and ODM players [8]. - The company is experiencing rapid revenue growth while facing profit pressures, necessitating a valuation approach that considers future profit improvement expectations [8][50]. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from $14.94 billion in FY2024 to $49.55 billion in FY2028, with year-on-year growth rates of 109.8%, 47.0%, 44.8%, 20.8%, and 28.9% respectively [4][26]. - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to fluctuate, with a forecast of $1.34 billion in FY2024, $1.28 billion in FY2025, and increasing to $2.27 billion by FY2028 [4][34]. - The company’s gross profit margin is projected to recover gradually, reaching 14.82% by FY2028 [15][50]. Valuation and Investment Recommendations - The report estimates a reasonable market value of $31.25 billion for the company, with a target price of $52.59 per share based on a cautious approach [25]. - The valuation methods include both P/E and P/S ratios, reflecting the company's growth potential and current profitability levels [18][25]. Industry Analysis - The server and computing infrastructure market is characterized as a blue ocean driven by AI, with significant growth opportunities [13]. - The competitive dynamics include traditional brand manufacturers consolidating their market positions while ODM manufacturers are experiencing rapid growth due to large customer demands [8][13]. - The industry is witnessing a trend towards "de-branding" in IT infrastructure, creating opportunities for white-label products [13].

每经AI快讯，9月22日，并行科技公告，拟向绵存科技、浙江天极采购AI算力服务器及配套设备，总金 额预计不超过1.13亿元。 ...