Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is facing resistance at 24,700 points, with a projected P/E ratio of 11 times over the next 12 months [2] - The recent US-China trade talks have led to a reduction in tariffs, with US tariffs on Chinese imports dropping from 145% to 30%, and Chinese tariffs on US imports decreasing from 125% to 10% [2] - The inflow of capital from mainland investors has slowed, and corporate earnings improvements are limited [2] Economic Indicators - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has mandated that cash transactions over 100,000 RMB for gold and diamonds must be reported starting August [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has completed the allocation of 800 billion RMB for construction projects this year [4] - Hong Kong's retail sales rose by 2.4% in May, ending a 14-month decline [4][10] Corporate News - Luxshare Precision is planning to raise 1 billion USD through an H-share listing in Hong Kong [5][11] - Alibaba repurchased approximately 56 million shares for 805 million USD in the last quarter [11] - Xiaomi is prioritizing domestic delivery issues for its new car model YU7, with plans to expand production [11] - Geely is set to launch its brand of cars in the UK, starting with the electric SUV EX5 [11] IPO Market - PwC forecasts that Hong Kong's IPO fundraising will exceed 200 billion RMB this year, potentially making it the top global market [9] - The first half of the year saw Hong Kong's IPO market raise 107.1 billion RMB, a sevenfold increase from the previous year [9] Sector Focus - The biotech sector is expected to benefit from new government measures supporting high-quality development [8] - Macau's gaming revenue in June increased by 19% year-on-year, surpassing expectations [8] - The textile sector anticipates improved orders following Nike's performance [8] Banking Sector - KPMG reported that Hong Kong's banking sector showed resilient growth, with total assets increasing by 4.5% to 24 trillion RMB [10] - The non-performing loan ratio rose from 1.65% to 2.15%, primarily due to challenges in the commercial real estate sector [10]

1、恆指：看多投資者認為至少上至24600，繼續牛過夜（收回價23150）；但也有投資者認為會下殺23800的牛證 Simon:指數稍有回落，全日收24325點。技術信號總結為"買入"。14個買入和4個賣出，買入信號居多。有機會進一步上升，阻力位在24714點。比投資者的 預期高100點左右。如果日線圖看，保利加通道的頂部24600點，與投資者看法一致。支持位在23719點。同樣接近投資者的觀點。目前保利加通道的中線在 23856點。雙方投資者的觀點都判斷的相當準確。如果當大家用支持和阻力位作為選擇產品收回價依據的話，在支持位和阻力位上多預留一些空間，因為有 時候市場上稍微觸碰支持位和阻力位的話，產品太貼近，收回的風險大一些。建議多預留一些緩衝空間，產品避免即刻收回。如果遇到問題也歡迎在盤中諮 詢Jenny以及我們團隊，也會給出一些產品供大家參考。 | 信號總結 | 賣出信號 | 中立信號 | 買入信號 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 買入 | | C | 1 4 | 2、小鵬汽車-W (09868.HK)：投資者問是否72-68適合接回？ Simon：目前技術信號為"強力賣出"， ...

➢ 中央六招擴消費金融谷內需 寬創業擔保 設5000億養老再貸款； 國家商務部：各地要認真落實汽車以舊換新政策 推進高階智駕車商 業化應用； 內地6月共批准158款國產及進口遊戲 騰訊及網易在列； 每日港股評析 港股早晨快訊 2025 年 6 月 25 日星期三 2012-01- 17 市場回顧 中港股市短期展望 恒指受制 24,700 點：中美在 5 月中旬於瑞士日內瓦經貿會談後發布聯合 聲明，雙方降低加徵關稅，互相保留加徵 10%關稅，美國對中國進口貨 品關稅將由 145%降至 30%，中國對美國進口貨品將由 125%降至 10%， 為期 90 日。中美 6 月倫敦談判達框架協議，後續關注 90 日對等關稅寬 限期過後能否取得長期協議。以伊停火，惟其後雙方是否遵循協議，仍有 待觀察。中美貿談續缺乏進展，內地現階段加推經濟刺激方案的意願不大， 企業盈利改善有限，北水於高位流入速度放緩。恒指阻力料見於 24,700 點，相當於未來 12 個月預測市盈率 11 倍。 短期看好板塊 宏觀焦點 鮑威爾不排除7月減息； 歐盟準備採取更多關稅反制措施以對美施壓； 企業消息 ➢ 旺旺(0151)全年多賺8.6% 減派息至 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is expected to test the June low of 22,668 points, influenced by a series of financial policies introduced in mainland China to stabilize the market, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [2] - The U.S. and China have agreed to lower tariffs, with U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports decreasing from 145% to 30%, and Chinese tariffs on U.S. goods dropping from 125% to 10% for a 90-day period [2] - The Hang Seng Index's valuation has returned to a reasonable level, but rising geopolitical tensions may increase risk aversion among investors [2] Sector Focus - The report highlights a positive outlook for certain sectors, particularly in light of the U.S. manufacturing PMI data for June [3] Corporate News - Pop Mart (9992) has established a film studio to produce the animated series "Labubu and Friends" [5] - China Shenhua (1088) plans to maintain cash dividends of no less than 65% of net profit attributable to the parent company [5] - Union Pharmaceuticals (3933) received a $180 million advance payment from Novo Nordisk as part of an exclusive development agreement [5] - ZhongAn Online (6060) experienced a 3.8% reduction in shares held by Ant Group, raising approximately 655 million yuan [5] Macroeconomic Focus - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, indicating reduced uncertainty in the economic outlook but acknowledging persistent inflation risks [4] - The report notes that the core PCE forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted upward, with expectations of two rate cuts this year totaling 0.5 percentage points [4] - The report discusses the ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and various countries, with some progress noted but still subject to change [4] Economic Indicators - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,530 points, up 1.26% year-to-date, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.88% [7] - The report indicates that the consumer price index in Hong Kong rose by 1.9% year-on-year in May, lower than expected [10] - The report highlights that the Chinese retail sales during the "618" shopping festival increased by 15.2% year-on-year, with total sales reaching 855.6 billion yuan [10] Company Developments - Lens Technology is reportedly assessing investor interest in its Hong Kong listing, with a total revenue of 69.897 billion yuan last year, up 28.27% [12] - Weichai Power's subsidiary, Weichai Lovol, has submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [12] - Kuaishou's e-commerce platform reported significant growth during the "618" shopping festival, with over 60% more merchants achieving sales exceeding 100 million yuan [12] - Douyin's e-commerce platform also reported that nearly 2,406 brands achieved sales exceeding 100 million yuan during the same period [12]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is expected to test the June low of 22,668 points due to geopolitical tensions and rising risk aversion, despite recent financial policies from mainland China aimed at stabilizing the market [2] - The U.S. and China have agreed to reduce tariffs, with U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports dropping from 145% to 30%, and Chinese tariffs on U.S. goods decreasing from 125% to 10% for a 90-day period [2] - The Hang Seng Index's valuation has returned to reasonable levels, but ongoing geopolitical tensions may lead to further declines [2] Sector Outlook - Gold mining stocks are favored in the short term due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and central banks continuing to increase their gold holdings [3] Company News - Sa Sa International (0178) reported a 65% decline in annual profits, while Oriental Watch Holdings (0398) saw a 20% drop in annual profits [5] - JD Group (9618) reported a more than doubling of user numbers for its 618 shopping event [7] - Sanhua Intelligent Controls (2050) has set a price limit and increased its total fundraising to 9.3 billion HKD [7] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with expectations of two rate cuts totaling 0.5% this year, reflecting a cautious stance on future inflation uncertainties [5] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 203.5 billion RMB reverse repurchase operation, maintaining the interest rate at 1.4% [9] - Fitch Ratings predicts that Hong Kong will see the largest increase in non-performing loans in the Asia-Pacific region this year due to ongoing uncertainties from U.S. tariff policies [10] Stock Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,238, down 1.99% year-to-date, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 2.42% [5] - The CRB Commodity Index increased by 0.12% year-to-date, while gold prices rose by 0.05% [5] Regulatory Developments - The Chinese government has emphasized the need for accurate and truthful advertising in the new energy vehicle sector, prohibiting exaggerated claims [9] - The Financial Regulatory Bureau has issued guidelines to prevent excessive competition in dividend insurance levels among insurance companies [9]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) is currently showing weak signals, with a potential drop to support levels around 22,855 points and a lower Bollinger Band at 22,900 points [1] - Investors are considering entering the market at 23,000 points, with a focus on bear certificates with a recovery price of 23,865 HKD [1] Group 2 - Tencent Holdings (00700) is experiencing a bearish trend, with a technical signal indicating "sell." The stock price is currently above the lower Bollinger Band but has dipped below it during the day [3] - Key levels to watch include the middle Bollinger Band at 490 HKD; if it fails to hold, further declines may occur [3] Group 3 - Meituan-W (03690) is also showing a "sell" signal, with potential support levels at 121.9 HKD and 114.5 HKD, close to the lower Bollinger Band at 116.7 HKD [5] - Investors are advised to observe these support levels before considering a rebound at around 120 HKD [5] Group 4 - HSBC Holdings (00005) has shown relatively smaller declines compared to other stocks, but the technical signal remains "sell." The stock is nearing the lower Bollinger Band, indicating a weak trend [8] - The support level to watch is 88.1 HKD, with the middle Bollinger Band at 86.3 HKD [8] Group 5 - BYD (01211) is trading near its support level of 121 HKD, with a bearish signal indicating further potential declines [10] - Key support levels are identified at 119.5 HKD and 112 HKD [10] Group 6 - Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (00981) is also under a "sell" signal, with the stock approaching the lower Bollinger Band [13] - Short-term support levels are at 38.1 HKD and 36.4 HKD, with the weekly Bollinger Band bottom at 36.6 HKD [13]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is constrained by the March high of 24,874 points, with expectations of new financial policies from mainland China to stabilize the market, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [2] - The recent US-China trade negotiations have led to a temporary reduction in tariffs, with US tariffs on Chinese imports dropping from 145% to 30%, and Chinese tariffs on US goods decreasing from 125% to 10% for a 90-day period [2][3] - The Hang Seng Index's valuation has returned to reasonable levels, requiring significant positive developments in trade agreements and corporate earnings improvements to maintain upward momentum [2] Sector Focus - The report highlights a positive outlook for sectors such as financial stocks, automotive parts, and gold mining stocks, driven by recent developments in trade agreements and geopolitical factors [7][8] - The automotive sector in mainland China saw a year-on-year sales increase of 11.2% in May, with new energy vehicle sales rising by 36.9% [9] Company News - Horizon Robotics plans to raise approximately HKD 47 billion through a share placement at a discount of nearly 7% [10] - Kintor Pharmaceutical is preparing for an IPO in Hong Kong, aiming to raise around USD 100 million [10] - Pop Mart has expanded its production capacity but still faces supply shortages due to high demand for its products [11] - JD Logistics is expanding its operations in Saudi Arabia, having recruited over a thousand staff for its logistics services [10] - Alibaba is focusing on re-establishing its leadership in the technology sector, emphasizing AI and cloud infrastructure as key strategic pillars [10] Economic Indicators - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, with core CPI rising by 0.1% month-on-month, indicating that tariffs have not yet significantly impacted overall inflation levels [8] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates, with projections indicating two rate cuts totaling 0.5% for the year [4][8]

Core Viewpoint - Great Wall Motors (02333) has shown a strengthening trend, with a recent stock price increase of 2.10% to HKD 12.62, indicating potential bullish momentum in the market [1]. Technical Analysis - The stock price has successfully broken through the MA10 (HKD 12.36) and MA30 (HKD 11.94), forming a bullish alignment, while the MACD indicator has issued a buy signal [1]. - The Bollinger Bands are expanding, suggesting an increase in upward momentum, although the RSI at 55 indicates a neutral zone, and other indicators show overbought conditions, hinting at possible short-term volatility [1]. - The stock is facing a key resistance level at HKD 13.3, with a potential challenge to the yearly high of HKD 13.9. Important support levels are at HKD 12.1 and a stronger support at HKD 11.7 [2]. Trading Opportunities - For investors optimistic about Great Wall Motors' breakout, options include the JPMorgan call warrant (15880) with a leverage of 4.7 times and an exercise price of HKD 14.9, which has a relatively low implied volatility [2]. - Another option is the credit warrant (13639) with a leverage of 4.9 times and an exercise price of HKD 14.88, noted for its lowest premium and implied volatility among similar products, offering better cost-effectiveness [2]. - Products expiring in November, such as UBS call warrant (13608) and JPMorgan call warrant (14482), with an exercise price of HKD 18.82 and effective leverage of 4.5 times, have shown a recent increase of 9.52% [3].

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index faces initial resistance at 23,000 points due to increased tariffs on Chinese imports announced by the US government, while expectations rise for the Chinese government to implement measures to stimulate economic growth and stabilize capital markets [2][3] - The People's Bank of China is reportedly relaxing restrictions on gold imports to ease the appreciation of the yuan, and there are plans to promote a new sales system for newly built homes to restore buyer confidence [3][8] Company News - Semiconductor company SMIC reported a 1.6 times year-on-year increase in first-quarter profit, with revenue expected to decline by 4% to 6% in the second quarter [10] - Huahong Semiconductor experienced an 88% drop in first-quarter profit, despite a 17.6% increase in sales revenue [10] - Galaxy Entertainment's first-quarter net revenue rose by 6%, driven by a 13.61% increase in total gaming revenue [10] - Unified Enterprises China reported a 32% increase in after-tax profit for the first quarter [10] - BYD aims to achieve 50% of its vehicle sales from overseas markets by 2030, focusing on expansion in Europe and Latin America [10] - Dongfeng Group's vehicle sales fell by 21% in the first four months of the year, while new energy vehicle sales increased by 27.73% [10][11] Economic Indicators - In April, retail sales of new energy vehicles in China increased by 37%, with a penetration rate of 52.3% [8] - The People's Bank of China has lowered the personal housing provident fund loan rates in major cities, aiming to support the housing market [8] - The first batch of securities companies' sci-tech bonds is set to be issued, with a total scale exceeding 16 billion yuan, targeting funding for strategic emerging industries [8] Stock Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 22,776, up 0.37% year-to-date, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 17.03% [5] - The US stock market saw gains of 0.6% to 1.1% across major indices, influenced by trade agreements between the US and UK [6]

Core Insights - The report highlights a downward trend in major stock indices, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 24,219.95, down 2.23% for the day and up 3.23% over the past five days [2] - Economic indicators show mixed results, with the U.S. initial jobless claims remaining stable at 223,000, slightly below market expectations of 224,000 [8][10] - The report notes a rebound in U.S. existing home sales for February, which rose to an annualized rate of 4.26 million, exceeding expectations of 3.95 million [9][10] Economic Data Summary - U.S. initial jobless claims for March were reported at 223,000, compared to a previous value of 220,000 [8] - The number of individuals continuing to receive unemployment benefits in February was 1,892,000, slightly above the previous figure of 1,870,000 [8] - Japan's consumer price index year-on-year for February was reported at 3.7%, slightly above the expected 3.5% [8] - The U.K. unemployment benefit claimant rate for February was reported at 4.7%, up from 4.5% [8] Major News Summary - The Bank of England decided to maintain interest rates at 4.5%, with a more cautious stance from its dovish members [9][10] - U.S. President Trump announced plans to sign a rare earth agreement with Ukraine soon, indicating a focus on long-term resource extraction [9][10] - Chinese President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of technological innovation in strengthening resource-based industries in Yunnan [9][10] - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission announced a cap on IPO subscription financing for retail investors due to high demand [9][10] Company-Specific Insights - UBS is reportedly considering relocating its headquarters to avoid increased capital requirements imposed by Switzerland [10] - Evergrande Auto announced a delay in releasing its 2024 annual results, with plans to suspend trading from April 1 [10] - Wintime Technology plans to exit its product integration business, citing adverse impacts from U.S. sanctions [10] - GCL-Poly Energy expects a loss of approximately 4.8 billion yuan for 2024, significantly down from a profit of 2.5 billion yuan in 2023 [10]