Report Industry Investment Ratings - Rebar: ★★★ (indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★★★ [1] - Iron ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆★ (indicating a bias towards a long position, with a driving force for price increase but limited operability on the market) [1] - Coking coal: ★☆★ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★★★ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★★ [1] Report's Core View - The steel market is gradually stabilizing after continuous adjustments, with costs providing support, but short-term fluctuations remain, and attention should be paid to the improvement in building material demand during the peak season [2]. - Iron ore is expected to mainly trade in a high-range oscillation [3]. - Coke and coking coal prices are strongly oscillating, affected by the policy expectations of "anti-involution" and market sentiment, with large price volatility [4][5]. - Silicomanganese and ferrosilicon prices are oscillating, and attention should be paid to the tender pricing of a large steel mill in the north and the continuity of "anti-involution" policies [6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The rebar's apparent demand and production continued to decline this week, with inventory accumulating, while the demand for hot-rolled coils significantly recovered, production increased, and inventory slightly decreased [2]. - The blast furnace is rapidly resuming production, with a significant increase in molten iron production, and the negative feedback pressure has eased, but the poor profit from steel stocking restricts further resumption of production [2]. - The real estate investment continued to decline significantly, the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing gradually slowed down, domestic demand remained weak overall, and steel exports remained at a high level [2]. - After continuous adjustments, the pressure on the market has been gradually released, the cost support at the bottom has strengthened, and the market has stabilized in fluctuations, but there may still be short-term fluctuations [2]. Iron Ore - On the supply side, global shipments have declined, domestic arrivals have slightly decreased, and port inventories have stabilized and increased, with no significant pressure on inventory accumulation in the short term [3]. - On the demand side, terminal demand has slightly recovered, steel mill profitability is at a low level, molten iron production has returned to a high level this week, and there is still support for iron ore demand in the short term, with steel mills having a certain demand for pre-holiday restocking in the next two weeks [3]. - Domestic policy benefits are yet to be released, and the market speculation sentiment still exists in the short term. It is expected that iron ore will mainly trade in a high-range oscillation [3]. Coke - The price was strongly oscillating during the day. The second round of price cuts for coking is in progress, and attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of molten iron production [4]. - Coking profits are acceptable, and daily coking production has slightly decreased. The overall coke inventory has increased, and the purchasing willingness of traders has decreased [4]. - The supply of carbon elements remains abundant, and there is an expectation of a gradual recovery in downstream molten iron production. Affected by events, the short-term decline was significant, and the market sentiment still anticipates coal overproduction inspections [4]. Coking Coal - The price was strongly oscillating during the day, and attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of molten iron production [5]. - Affected by the parade, the production of coking coal mines has increased month-on-month. The spot auction transactions have slightly weakened, the transaction price has declined following the market, and the terminal inventory has slightly decreased [5]. - The total coking coal inventory has decreased month-on-month, the production-side inventory has continued to slightly increase, and the previous shutdowns of coking coal have gradually resumed [5]. Silicomanganese - The price oscillated during the day. Attention should be paid to the tender pricing of a large steel mill in the north, with the current moving average price at 5,800 yuan/ton [6]. - The short-term decline in molten iron production has a relatively small impact on the overall demand, and there is an expectation of a gradual recovery later [6]. - The weekly production of silicomanganese has continued to increase, reaching a relatively high level, and the inventory has not yet accumulated, with good market demand [6]. - The long-term quotation of manganese ore has slightly increased month-on-month, and the spot ore price has decreased this week. After a significant rebound in the market, it is expected that the spot manganese ore price will mainly rise [6]. Ferrosilicon - The price oscillated during the day. Attention should be paid to the tender pricing of a large steel mill in the north, with the current inquiry price at 5,700 yuan/ton [7]. - The short-term decline in molten iron production has a relatively small impact on the overall demand, and there is an expectation of a gradual recovery later [7]. - Export demand remains at around 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has slightly decreased month-on-month, and the demand has slightly declined marginally, but the overall demand is still acceptable [7]. - The supply of ferrosilicon has continued to significantly increase, the market's forward-looking demand is good, and the on-balance-sheet inventory has slightly decreased [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Xuyang (1907.HK) with a target price of HKD 4.2, indicating a potential upside of 68% from the current stock price of HKD 2.5 [1][6][13]. Core Views - Despite the cyclical downturn, China Xuyang managed to achieve profitability in the first half of 2025, with total revenue of RMB 20.549 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 18.5%, and a net profit of RMB 0.87 billion, down 34% primarily due to falling coke prices [1][2][4]. - The company demonstrated strong cost control capabilities, achieving a gross margin of 11.9%, which is an increase of 4.4 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to effective cost-saving measures and a reduction in depreciation expenses [2][3]. - The report anticipates continued low volatility in coke prices for the next six months, with the average price per ton expected to stabilize around RMB 1,500 [2]. Financial Performance Summary - **Coke and Coking Business**: Revenue for the coke and coking segment was RMB 6.36 billion, down 35.2% year-on-year, with an average selling price of approximately RMB 1,400 per ton, a decrease of about 30% [2]. - **Chemical Business**: Revenue from the chemical segment fell to RMB 9.1 billion, a decline of 12.6%, primarily due to lower average prices for key products [3]. - **Operating Management**: Revenue from operating management dropped to RMB 1.275 billion, a decrease of 47%, mainly due to the completion of agreements for three projects [3]. - **Trade Business**: Trade revenue increased by 53% to RMB 3.73 billion, driven by higher trading volumes, although it reported a pre-tax loss of RMB 184 million [3]. Profit Forecasts - The report revises the net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to RMB 1.7 billion, RMB 4.8 billion, and RMB 10.6 billion respectively, down from previous estimates of RMB 2.3 billion, RMB 7.8 billion, and RMB 11.5 billion [1][4]. - Corresponding EPS estimates are adjusted to HKD 0.04, HKD 0.12, and HKD 0.26 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1][4]. Valuation Analysis - The valuation is based on both comparable company analysis and DCF methods, with a target price of HKD 4.2 derived from a PE multiple of 40x applied to the 2026 EPS [12][13]. - The DCF analysis estimates a market value of HKD 19.45 billion, reflecting the company's resilience and growth potential despite current industry challenges [12][13].

大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-9-8） 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：在产煤矿维持正常生产，前期停产煤矿仍在陆续复产。当前市场降价氛围浓厚，部分前期 观望的贸易商开始出货兑现利润，下游焦企采购也更偏谨慎，炼焦煤成交氛围转为平淡，线上竞拍流拍 情况增多，成交价格也有不同程度下跌，产地部分矿点因下游签单不佳；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1170，基差11.5；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存805.8万吨，港口库存255.5万吨，独立焦企库存829.4万吨，总样本库存1890.7万吨， 较上周减少28.1万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格在20日线下方；偏空 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空增；偏空 利 空：1.焦钢企业对原料煤采购放缓 2.钢材价格疲 ...

Group 1 - The company Jiugang Hongxing announced a total joint liability guarantee of 949 million yuan for its wholly-owned subsidiaries, with no other external guarantees reported [1] - As of January to December 2024, the revenue composition of Jiugang Hongxing is as follows: steel accounts for 90.17%, other businesses for 6.03%, coking industry for 2.33%, power products for 1.42%, and other industries for 0.05% [1] - The current market capitalization of Jiugang Hongxing is 10.2 billion yuan [1]

Group 1 - The company Jiugang Hongxing (SH 600307) held its 23rd meeting of the 8th board of directors on September 5, 2025, to discuss the proposal for the second extraordinary general meeting of shareholders in 2025 [1] - For the year 2024, Jiugang Hongxing's revenue composition is as follows: steel accounts for 90.17%, other businesses for 6.03%, coking industry for 2.33%, power products for 1.42%, and other industries for 0.05% [1] - As of the report date, Jiugang Hongxing has a market capitalization of 10.2 billion yuan [1]

Core Insights - Shandong Province's industrial value-added output increased by 7.8% year-on-year from January to July, surpassing the national average by 1.5 percentage points, with 35 out of 41 industrial sectors showing growth, resulting in a growth rate of 85.4% [1] - The equipment manufacturing sector saw a significant increase of 12.5%, with major industries such as electronics, automotive, and electrical machinery growing by 19.7%, 16.1%, and 12.1% respectively [1] - High-tech manufacturing also demonstrated robust growth, with a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, indicating a strengthening of new growth drivers [1] Policy Measures - The Shandong Provincial Industrial and Information Technology Department has implemented 18 supportive measures for enterprises and a 2025 action plan for industrial economy, focusing on resolving issues, providing services, and promoting development [2] - The third batch of policy measures includes targeted support for struggling industrial enterprises, promoting green transformation, enhancing AI applications, and expanding financial service channels [2] - A work plan for stabilizing industrial growth has been developed, emphasizing three key lists: a "billion-yuan incremental project list," a "billion-yuan production enterprise list," and a "standardization cultivation list" for small and micro enterprises [2] Industry Focus - The strategy to curb decline focuses on four major industries: refining, steel, electrolytic aluminum, and coking, with tailored strategies for each to enhance production efficiency and support transformation projects [3] - Additionally, six sectors experiencing a decline in value-added output, including paper, furniture, and cultural products, will receive intensified monitoring and support to facilitate recovery [3] - The approach to address external trade pressures includes initiatives to expand international markets and stabilize supply chains, alongside efforts to enhance enterprise expectations through improved service platforms [3]

Group 1: Economic Policy Initiatives - Shandong Province is launching a new round of targeted "policy support packages" to enhance economic quality and stability, focusing on key sectors such as services, construction, and cultural tourism [1][2] - The Shandong Development and Reform Commission has developed a policy list to promote stable economic growth, emphasizing funding support, consumption stimulation, and project construction [2][3] Group 2: Support for Service Industry - Shandong will allocate 200 million RMB in service industry development guidance funds, with an additional 100 million RMB in the second half of the year to support high-growth and newly regulated enterprises [2][3] - The province's service industry value added increased by 5.8% year-on-year in the first half of the year, outpacing the GDP growth rate by 0.2 percentage points [3] Group 3: Construction Industry Measures - A new work plan has been established to promote high-quality development in the construction industry, including measures to clear overdue payments to construction companies [4] - Private enterprises contributed 73% of employment and 59% of output in Shandong's construction industry in the first half of the year [4] Group 4: Cultural and Tourism Consumption - Shandong has introduced a plan to expand cultural and tourism consumption, featuring 20 measures to enhance the integration of culture and tourism [5][6] - In the first half of the year, Shandong received 410 million tourists, generating over 500 billion RMB in tourism revenue, both showing nearly 10% year-on-year growth [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Report's Core View - Raw material demand remains relatively high, but coal mine production cuts are lower than expected, leading to a slight inventory build - up at mines and dragging down the market. In the short - term, market sentiment is still volatile, and coking coal and coke prices will fluctuate [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Market Logic - Yesterday, coking coal and coke futures prices oscillated. The 09 contract entered the delivery month with weak buying and delivery interest, so the futures price moved from premium to flat or discount, dragging down other contracts. On the spot side, some high - priced coal resources had weak sales, and prices were stable with a downward trend. Last week, Hebei coke enterprises initiated the 8th price increase, but most steel mills didn't respond, and some planned price cuts, resulting in a market game [3] - Last week, coal mines in Shanxi's main production areas cut production due to geological issues in Lvliang and stricter safety inspections in Linfen. Next week, coal production is likely to rise slightly, but before September 3, main production areas will focus on safety, and some mines may have short - term production cuts [3] - Steel mills' profitability rate remains above 60%, with low willingness to cut production. During the parade, steel mills around Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei are expected to cut production from August 31 to September 3, with a 40% reduction, lower than previous similar events. They are expected to resume production after September 4 [3] Attention Points - Pay attention to changes in steel mill blast furnace operations and coal mine复产情况 [4]

Core Insights - The article highlights the transformation of revolutionary old areas in China, emphasizing their shift towards ecological sustainability and high-quality development while preserving their historical significance [1][2][3][4] Group 1: Ecological Restoration and Economic Development - Many revolutionary old areas, once hindered by environmental degradation, are now leveraging their ecological resources to develop unique agricultural and tourism industries [1][2] - Longtian, once known as the "Red Desert" due to severe soil erosion, has successfully transformed its environment through systematic governance, leading to a significant improvement in local ecology and economy [2] - Areas rich in mineral resources, such as coal and aluminum, face challenges from historical resource extraction, necessitating comprehensive ecological restoration to revitalize the land [2][3] Group 2: Innovative Industrial Practices - Shanxi's Lüliang is developing a circular economy around traditional coal and coke industries, integrating hydrogen energy and high-end manufacturing into its industrial chain [3] - The steel industry in Hebei's Shexian is evolving with a focus on green practices, enhancing the entire production process from material transport to product delivery [3] Group 3: Agricultural and Cultural Development - Revolutionary old areas are capitalizing on their unique agricultural products, enhancing brand recognition and value through specialized cultivation and processing [3] - The integration of red cultural resources with ecological tourism is becoming a trend, utilizing modern technology to create immersive experiences that promote local history and culture [4] - The enduring spirit of resistance and sacrifice from the revolutionary past continues to inspire local communities to pursue sustainable development and shared prosperity [4]

Core Viewpoint - Shanxi Antai Group Co., Ltd. is progressing with the asset transfer to its wholly-owned subsidiary, Hong'an Coking, which is part of an internal resource integration strategy aimed at optimizing the company's asset structure and improving operational efficiency [1][2]. Group 1 - The Board of Directors approved the asset transfer proposal, which involves transferring assets related to coking operations from the coal chemical and electric power divisions to Hong'an Coking, with a reference date set for June 30, 2025 [1][2]. - The total assets involved in the transfer amount to 431 million yuan, with total liabilities of 18 million yuan, resulting in a net asset value of 413 million yuan as of the reference date [2]. - The transfer will not affect the consolidated financial statements of the company and is not expected to have a significant impact on the company's financial condition and operating results [2].