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新世纪期货交易提示(2025-7-22)-20250722
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 05:16
Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Upward [2] - Coking coal and coke: Upward [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Bullish [2] - Glass: Upward [2] - Soda ash: Bullish [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Sideways [4] - SSE 50 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [2] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Upward [4] - 2-year Treasury Bonds: Sideways [4] - 5-year Treasury Bonds: Sideways [4] - 10-year Treasury Bonds: Rebound [4] - Gold: Bullish sideways [6] - Silver: Bullish [6] - Pulp: Sideways with a bullish bias [6] - Logs: Bullish sideways [6] - Soybean oil: Sideways correction [6] - Palm oil: Sideways correction [6] - Rapeseed oil: Sideways correction [8] - Soybean meal: Sideways with a bullish bias [8] - Rapeseed meal: Sideways with a bullish bias [8] - Soybean No. 2: Sideways with a bullish bias [8] - Soybean No. 1: Sideways with a bullish bias [8] - Live pigs: Sideways with a bearish bias [8] - Rubber: Sideways [10] - PX: On the sidelines [10] - PTA: On the sidelines [10] - MEG: On the sidelines [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: Sideways with a bearish bias [10] Core Views - The anti-involution policy has boosted the sentiment of the black market, but the long-term supply-demand surplus pattern of iron ore remains unchanged. The coking coal and coke market is expected to be bullish in the short term, and the steel and glass markets are supported by macro and policy factors. The stock index futures market shows a mixed trend, and the bond market is expected to rebound slightly. The precious metals market is expected to be bullish, and the pulp and log markets are expected to be bullish sideways. The oil and fat market may correct in the short term, and the agricultural products market shows a mixed trend. The soft commodities market is expected to be sideways, and the polyester market is on the sidelines [2][4][6][8][10] Summary by Categories Black Industry - Iron ore: The global iron ore shipment volume increased, and the supply is still abundant. The iron ore port inventory increased slightly, and the short-term fundamentals are acceptable. The long-term supply is expected to increase, and the demand is relatively low. The price has broken through the previous high and is expected to be bullish [2] - Coking coal and coke: After the second round of price increases, the cost pressure of coke remains, and the market is expected to be bullish. The current fundamentals are healthy, and the price is expected to be bullish in the short term. The coking plant's operation is stable, and the supply is slightly tight. The downstream demand is weak, but the steel mill's procurement enthusiasm has increased [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: The anti-involution policy has boosted the supply-side sentiment, and the steel industry's stable growth expectation has pushed up the market sentiment. The construction material demand has declined in the off-season, but the profit of the five major steel products is acceptable, and the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent. The total demand is expected to be low, and the price is supported by macro and policy factors [2] - Glass: The anti-involution trading may continue, and the macro environment is neutral to bullish. The demand for glass deep processing orders has weakened, but the speculative demand is strong. The supply is expected to increase, and the pressure remains. The downstream inventory is low, but the rigid demand has not recovered. The long-term demand is difficult to increase significantly, and the price is expected to be bullish in the short term [2] Financial Industry - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.67%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.28%, the CSI 500 Index rose 1.01%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.92%. The construction materials and engineering machinery sectors saw capital inflows, while the education and banking sectors saw capital outflows. The European leaders' visit to China and the stable LPR have boosted the market sentiment. The market risk aversion has eased, and it is recommended to hold long positions in the stock index [4] - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond increased by 1bp, and the market interest rate was stable. The central bank conducted 170.7 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 5.55 billion yuan. The bond market is expected to rebound slightly, and it is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds [4] Precious Metals Industry - Gold: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from the traditional real interest rate to central bank gold purchases. The currency, financial, and hedging attributes of gold are prominent. The US debt problem and the trade tension have supported the price of gold. The Fed's interest rate and tariff policies may be short-term disturbances, and the price is expected to be bullish sideways [6] - Silver: The price of silver is expected to be bullish. The inflation data shows resilience, and the market uncertainty before the new tariff deadline has increased the demand for hedging funds. The Fed's interest rate cut expectation in September has supported the price of silver [6] Light Industry - Pulp: The spot market price of pulp is rising, but the cost is falling, which weakens the support for the price. The papermaking industry's profitability is low, and the demand is in the off-season. The anti-involution policy has boosted the market sentiment, and the price is expected to be sideways with a bullish bias [6] - Logs: The daily出库 volume of logs has increased, and the cost has risen, which strengthens the support for the price. The supply pressure is not large, and the anti-involution policy has boosted the market sentiment. The price is expected to be bullish sideways [6] Oil and Fat Industry - Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil: The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased in June, but the inventory increased. The export may slow down in July. The production of US biodiesel is increasing, which supports the demand for soybean oil. The domestic inventory of the three major oils is rising, and the supply is abundant. The demand is in the off-season, but the biodiesel expectation has boosted the price. The price may correct in the short term [6][8] Agricultural Products Industry - Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No. 2, and soybean No. 1: The estimated yield of US soybeans has been reduced, but the end-of-year inventory has increased. The growth of US soybeans is good, and the consumption of soybean meal is expected to increase. The domestic supply of soybeans is abundant, and the price is expected to be sideways with a bullish bias [8] - Live pigs: The average trading weight of live pigs is decreasing, and the price has risen slightly but is expected to decline. The supply of live pigs is increasing, and the consumption demand is restricted by high temperatures. The slaughtering enterprise's operating rate is expected to decline slightly [8] Soft Commodities Industry - Rubber: The raw material supply of natural rubber is tight due to rainfall, and the price has risen. The tire industry's capacity utilization rate has recovered, but the growth is restricted by the market demand. The inventory of natural rubber is increasing, and the price is expected to be sideways [10] Polyester Industry - PX: The geopolitical situation has eased, which has pressured the oil price. The short-term supply of PX is tight, and the price follows the oil price [10] - PTA: The cost is sideways, and the supply has increased. The downstream polyester factory's operating rate has decreased slightly, and the medium-term supply-demand is expected to weaken. The price follows the cost in the short term [10] - MEG: The recent arrival volume is small, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. The terminal demand is weak, and the supply pressure has eased. The medium-term supply-demand is expected to be balanced. The cost has rebounded, and the price is expected to be bullish sideways [10] - PR: The cost is supportive, but the downstream demand is rigid. The polyester bottle sheet market is expected to be sorted out narrowly [10] - PF: The support is weak, and the industry supply pressure is large. The polyester staple fiber market is expected to be sideways with a bearish bias [10]
广发期货《黑色》日报-20250721
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 11:13
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views Steel - The rebound of ferrous metals since June was due to the production cut of coking coal caused by environmental inspections, the resilient demand during the off - season, and the low inventory. In July, the "anti - involution" trading improved market sentiment, and with the marginal improvement of industrial supply - demand and market sentiment, ferrous metals rose strongly. High - frequency data shows that off - season demand is resilient, steel mill production remains high, and raw material inventories are in a destocking trend. Later, the inventory may weaken if coking coal production recovers or steel demand declines. Macroscopically, under the expectation of supply - side contraction, the sentiment of commodity buying is positive. The resistance levels of rebar and hot - rolled coil at around 3100 and 3270 yuan have been removed, and the next pressure levels are 3250 and 3400 yuan [1] Iron Ore - Last week, the 09 contract of iron ore rose strongly. Fundamentally, the global shipment volume of iron ore decreased slightly, the arrival volume at 45 ports increased slightly, and the subsequent arrival volume is expected to decline slightly. On the demand side, after the lifting of production restrictions in Tangshan on July 15, the iron - making water output rebounded significantly, and the short - term resilience of molten iron is maintained. The terminal demand shows a strong performance in the off - season. In terms of inventory, port inventory increased slightly, and the inventory of steel mills' equity ore decreased rapidly. In the future, the molten iron output in July will remain high, and the steel mill profit will support raw materials. The short - term iron ore will fluctuate strongly. The strategy is to go long on the 2509 contract on dips and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [4] Coke - Last week, the coke futures fluctuated upward, and the first - round spot price increase was implemented. The supply side saw some coal mines resuming production, but the output was difficult to increase due to losses. The demand side witnessed the end of environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan, the resumption of blast furnaces, and a significant increase in molten iron. The inventory of coking plants and ports decreased, while the steel mill inventory increased. Due to the low price, cost push and the downstream steel mills' active replenishment demand are conducive to the future price increase of coke. The strategy is to conduct hedging operations in the spot - futures market, go long on the 09 contract on dips, and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [6] Coking Coal - Last week, the coking coal futures fluctuated upward, and the spot price generally increased. The supply side has an expectation of increased supply, but the overall production recovery is slow, and the market is in short supply. The import coal price has a slight rebound, and the inventory pressure has decreased. The demand side shows a slight increase in coking plant operation, a rapid increase in molten iron output, and an increase in the replenishment efforts of steel mills and coking plants. The inventory of coal mines is decreasing, and the downstream inventory is increasing. The strategy is to conduct hedging operations in the spot - futures market, go long on the 09 contract on dips, and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [6] Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Steel Price and Spread - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts generally increased. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China increased from 3200 to 3220 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price increased from 3162 to 3196 yuan/ton [1] Cost and Profit - The billet price increased by 10 yuan/ton to 2960 yuan/ton, and the slab price remained unchanged at 3730 yuan/ton. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions generally decreased, such as the East China rebar profit decreased by 41 to 91 [1] Production - The daily average molten iron output increased by 2.6 to 242.6, a 1.1% increase. The output of five major steel products decreased by 4.5 to 868.2, a 0.5% decrease. The rebar output decreased by 7.6 to 209.1, a 3.5% decrease [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 1.9 to 1337.7, a 0.1% decrease. The rebar inventory increased by 2.9 to 543.3, a 0.5% increase [1] Transaction and Demand - The building materials transaction volume increased by 0.7 to 9.4, an 8.6% increase. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 15.3 to 206.2, a 6.9% decrease, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil increased by 1.3 to 323.8, a 0.4% increase [1] Iron Ore Price and Spread - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased, and the 09 - contract basis of different iron ore powders also increased. For example, the 09 - contract basis of PB powder increased from 25.2 to 34.5 yuan/ton, a 36.9% increase [4] Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) increased by 178.2 to 2662.1, a 7.2% increase, and the global shipment volume (weekly) decreased by 7.8 to 2987.1, a 0.3% decrease [4] Demand - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills (weekly) increased by 2.6 to 242.4, a 1.1% increase. The daily average port clearance volume (weekly) increased by 3.2 to 322.7, a 1.0% increase [4] Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 62.1 to 13785.21, a 0.5% increase, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 157.5 to 8822.2, a 1.8% decrease [4] Coke Price and Spread - The prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. The 09 - contract price of coke decreased by 1 to 1518, a 0.14% decrease, and the 01 - contract price increased by 4 to 1559, a 0.3% increase [6] Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.1 to 64.2, a 0.2% increase, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 47.1, a 0.2% decrease [6] Demand - The molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 2.6 to 242.4, a 1.1% increase [6] Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 5.3 to 925.7, a 0.64% decrease. The inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 5.5 to 87.6, a 5.94% decrease, and the inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.2 to 639.0, a 0.2% increase [6] Coking Coal Price and Spread - The prices of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) and coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged. The 09 - contract price of coking coal increased by 8 to 926, a 0.8% increase, and the 01 - contract price increased by 8 to 976, a 0.84% increase [6] Supply - The raw coal output decreased by 1.6 to 866.6, a 0.2% decrease, and the clean coal output decreased by 1.1 to 442.4, a 0.2% decrease [6] Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.1 to 64.2, a 0.2% increase, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 47.1, a 0.2% decrease [6] Inventory - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 18.3 to 158.1, a 10.3% decrease. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 36.8 to 929.1, a 4.1% increase, and the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 8.2 to 791.1, a 1.04% increase [6]
煤焦:焦价首轮提涨落地,盘面震荡偏强运行
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 03:33
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Recently, under the influence of a bullish market sentiment and a slight relief in supply - demand pressure, both the futures and spot markets have strengthened in resonance. The short - term market should be treated as a volatile rebound [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Yesterday, the prices of coal and coke futures fluctuated and trended stronger. On the spot side, the first - round price increase of coke was 70 - 95 yuan/ton, and the mainstream steel mills have accepted a price increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton, with a still existing price - increase expectation in the market. The price of coking coal also maintained a rebound trend [2] Fundamental Analysis - This week, coal mines in the main production areas of Shanxi continued the resumption of production, but the overall process was still slow. Downstream procurement enthusiasm was high, and the demand for replenishment and speculation was concentratedly released. Coal resources were in short supply, and most pre - sale orders were signed for more than half a month. The pressure of high supply and high inventory in coal mines was significantly reduced, and coal prices were likely to rise and difficult to fall in the short term. This week, the daily output of raw coal from 523 coking coal sample mines was 1.929 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,000 tons; the raw coal inventory was 6.153 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 276,000 tons; the clean coal inventory was 3.391 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 381,000 tons [2] Demand - side Situation - Recently, coking plants and steel mills have accelerated their raw material replenishment. The available days of coking coal inventory in factories have rebounded from a low level. The average daily hot metal output of steel mill blast furnaces has rebounded to 2.4244 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 26,300 tons [2]
陕西黑猫焦化股份有限公司关于追加确认及预计日常关联交易的公告
Core Viewpoint - The announcement details the additional confirmation and expected daily related transactions of Shaanxi Black Cat Coking Co., Ltd., indicating that these transactions are normal operational activities and do not affect the company's independence or create significant reliance on related parties [2][10]. Group 1: Daily Related Transactions Overview - The daily related transactions involve Shaanxi Steel Group Co., Ltd. and its subsidiaries, with a long-standing relationship where Longmen Steel has been the company's largest customer for over 20 years [3]. - The company plans to sell coke and coke powder to Shaanxi Steel's subsidiary, Shaanxi Steel Hancheng Co., Ltd., with a total transaction amount not exceeding 31,900 million yuan (excluding tax) for the period from October 2024 to June 2025 [4][5]. Group 2: Related Party Information - Shaanxi Steel Hancheng Co., Ltd. was established on July 29, 2015, with a registered capital of 100,000 million yuan, and is involved in various metal and coal-related sales and services [7]. - The relationship with the related party is established through familial ties, as the chairman of Shaanxi Steel Hancheng Co., Ltd. is a close family member of the company's chairman and general manager [7]. Group 3: Financial Performance of Related Party - As of December 31, 2024, Shaanxi Steel Hancheng Co., Ltd. reported total assets of 360,706.59 million yuan and a net profit of 947.64 million yuan [8]. - The company has maintained a good performance record with no defaults or unusual incidents in its dealings with Shaanxi Black Cat Coking Co., Ltd. [8]. Group 4: Pricing Policy for Related Transactions - The pricing policy for transactions between the company and Shaanxi Steel Hancheng Co., Ltd. is based on contracts that specify quality standards and market-based pricing [9]. Group 5: Purpose and Impact of Related Transactions - The transactions are deemed necessary for the company's ongoing operations and are expected to contribute to stable business development [10]. - The pricing of these transactions is fair and does not harm the interests of the company or its shareholders, particularly minority shareholders [10].
云煤能源: 云南煤业能源股份有限公司2025年半年度业绩预告
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-07-11 16:16
Group 1 - The company, Yunnan Coal Industry Energy Co., Ltd., expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company for the first half of 2025 to be between -168 million yuan and -160 million yuan, representing a decrease in losses of 64.75 million yuan to 72.75 million yuan compared to the same period last year [1][2] - The expected net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company, after deducting non-recurring gains and losses, is projected to be between -169.3 million yuan and -161.3 million yuan, which is a reduction in losses of 71.96 million yuan to 79.96 million yuan year-on-year [2] - The company's previous year's net profit for the first half of 2024 was -232.75 million yuan, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was -241.26 million yuan [2] Group 2 - The primary reason for the expected loss in the current period is the overall downturn in the steel and coking industries, coupled with the pressure from both supply and demand in the regional coal and coke market, which has adversely affected the company's main business [2]
7月11日上午国内部分焦企召开市场分析会:与会代表一致认为,当前焦炭市场应尽快提涨价格
news flash· 2025-07-11 06:29
7月11日上午国内部分焦企召开市场分析会:与会代表一致认为,当前焦炭市场应尽快提涨价格 金十期货7月11日讯,7月11日上午,中国炼焦行业协会市场委员会召开专题市场分析会,来自山西、河 北、内蒙古、河南、江苏、山东、陕西、宁夏、江西、云贵等地的重点焦化企业代表出席会议。与会人 员结合当前宏观经济环境及行业动态,深入分析了焦炭市场的供需格局及价格走势,并达成以下共识: 与会代表一致认为,当前焦炭市场应尽快提涨价格。为改善行业经营困难的局面,实现产业链利润的合 理分配,与会企业达成以下决议:1、自7月14日起,对钢厂客户执行捣固湿熄焦价格上调70元/吨,捣 固干熄焦价格上调75元/吨,顶装焦价格上调95元/吨。2、对贸易客户自7月11日起上调价格。3、继续 坚持预收款的商业模式,不赊销,不放弃检斤计量化验权。 (钢之家) ...
个别焦企首轮提涨,盘面震荡偏强
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-07-11 03:07
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The recent improvement in market sentiment and the slight alleviation of coking coal supply - demand pressure on the fundamentals, along with the follow - up increase in the spot market, are expected to support the futures market to maintain a volatile and upward - biased trend. [3] Group 3: Summary According to the Content Market Trend - On July 11, 2025, the coking coal and coke futures prices continued to rise in a volatile manner, and the spot market followed suit. Some coke enterprises in certain regions planned the first - round price increase. Market sentiment has been warming up, and positive rumors have stimulated price increases, but the actual implementation of relevant policies and measures needs attention. [2] Fundamental Analysis of Coking Coal - The proportion of unsold lots in the coking coal spot auction market has significantly decreased, and coal prices in most regions have rebounded. This week, coal mines in the main production areas of Shanxi continued the resumption of production, but the overall process was relatively slow. The regional, phased, and structural supply - demand mismatch of coking coal has not been effectively alleviated. With the increase in macro - expectations this week, speculative demand has been released, and coking coal prices have continued to rise. The inventory at coal mine pits has continued to decline significantly, and there have been frequent cases of trucks waiting for coal. [2] - The daily average raw coal output of 523 coking coal mines was 191.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.8 million tons; the daily average cleaned coal output was 76.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.6 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1.4 million tons; the coking clean coal inventory at the mine end was 377.2 million tons, with a cumulative decrease of 122 million tons in the past three weeks and a year - on - year increase of 108.3 million tons. [2] Demand Side - Recently, coking plants and steel mills have accelerated their raw material replenishment, and the available days of coking coal inventory in the plants have rebounded from a low level. However, this week, the molten iron output dropped below 2.4 billion tons, and attention should be paid to the steel mill production restriction situation. [2] Import Side - Recently, the customs clearance of Mongolian coal has remained relatively low, and the port inventory has steadily decreased. From July 11th to 15th, the ports will be temporarily closed due to the Mongolian Naadam Festival. [2] Future Focus - Pay attention to changes in the blast furnace start - up rate of steel mills and the customs clearance situation of imported coal. [3]
业绩三连降,山西“焦炭大王”再闯IPO
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-10 14:31
Core Viewpoint - Shanxi Sunshine Coking Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Sunshine Coking") is seeking to raise 4 billion yuan through an IPO on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, focusing on projects related to coking and liquefied natural gas [3][4] Company Overview - Sunshine Coking has been attempting to go public for nearly twenty years, facing numerous challenges including the 2008 global financial crisis and subsequent market conditions [3][4] - The company has undergone significant changes in its shareholder structure, with strategic investors being introduced to stabilize ownership before its IPO attempt [3] Financial Performance - Sunshine Coking's financial performance has been highly volatile, with net profit peaking at 2.137 billion yuan in 2021 but plummeting to 1.175 billion yuan in 2022 and projected to drop further to 379 million yuan in 2024 [4][5] - Revenue has also declined significantly, from 20.438 billion yuan in 2022 to an expected 15.830 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a cumulative profit drop of over 80% in three years [4][5] Industry Context - The coking industry is characterized by high sensitivity to market cycles, with Sunshine Coking's profitability heavily impacted by fluctuating coal and coke prices [5][6] - The company has experienced a drastic decline in gross profit margins, with comprehensive gross margin dropping from 20.91% in 2021 to an expected 6.36% in 2024 [5][6] Governance Structure - Sunshine Coking has a concentrated ownership structure, with the actual controller holding 81.28% of the shares, raising concerns about governance and potential conflicts of interest [7] - The family-controlled nature of the company may pose challenges for modern corporate governance, especially after its IPO [7] Fundraising and Strategic Focus - The company has reduced its fundraising target from 6 billion yuan to 4 billion yuan, with a shift in focus towards upgrading its core business and environmental transformation [8] - Sunshine Coking aims to establish a "green coking" image and has been recognized as a key player in the carbon-based new materials industry chain by the Shanxi provincial government [8] Environmental Compliance - Sunshine Coking has faced multiple environmental violations, with 19 administrative penalties totaling approximately 4.91 million yuan since 2018 [9] - The company must improve its environmental compliance and performance to fulfill its commitment to becoming a clean and environmentally friendly coking enterprise [9]
市场快讯:粗钢限产&焦炭提涨,黑色系全线大涨
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 12:10
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On July 10th, the black - series commodities saw a significant increase. The main contract of rebar broke through 3100, reaching a maximum of 3130, and iron ore broke through 750, reaching a maximum of 766. The market is concerned about the risks of a pull - back after a rapid rise. However, due to anti - involution expectations, the downside support of the futures market is relatively strong, and it is not easy to form a downward trend in the short term [8][10] 3. Strategy - For unilateral trading, short - term operations are recommended. Since the basis between spot and futures has widened rapidly, attention should be paid to the opportunity of buying spot and shorting futures [6] 4. Market News - **Crude Steel Production Restriction**: Recently, steel mills in Shanxi have received oral notices for crude steel production restrictions, aiming to achieve a provincial - wide annual crude steel production reduction of nearly 6 million tons. One steel mill has shut down a blast furnace, and the rest of the steel mills are formulating production reduction measures according to the requirements [8] - **Coke Price Hike**: It is rumored that a large coking enterprise will raise the coke price by 50 - 55 yuan per ton next Monday, and the price increase will be implemented on Tuesday [8]
黑色金属日报-20250709
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 11:20
| | | 日内价格上行。焦化有提涨预期,利润微薄,焦化日产较年内高位持续回落。焦炭整体库存持续下降,贸易商采购意愿稍有改 善,钢厂采购也略有改善。整体来看,碳元素供应端仍较充裕,下游铁水淡季仍保持较高水平,"反内卷"目前对焦炭行业影 响有限。焦炭盘面维持升水,在库存压力下,焦炭盘面上方压力较大。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 | SDIC FUTURES | | 2025年07月09日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 螺纹 | な女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | な女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ☆☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | な女女 | | | 證硅 | な女女 | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | 女女女 | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gt ...