Summary of the Soda Ash Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The soda ash industry is currently experiencing a weak fundamental environment, characterized by low valuations, high inventory, high supply, and weak downstream demand since entering a bear market in 2024 [1][3] - The industry is expected to see a continuous increase in new capacity in 2025, with significant additions planned for the second half of the year [1] Key Points on Supply and Demand - Demand for float glass and photovoltaic glass has decreased, with daily melting capacity for float glass dropping from 170,000 tons to 159,000 tons and photovoltaic glass from 115,000 tons to 87,000 tons [5] - The soda ash industry is projected to see a decline in demand by 500,000 tons in 2025 [1] - Current upstream inventory is approximately 1.8 million tons, while downstream glass factories have inventory levels of about 23-28 days [6] - Without policy disruptions, supply is expected to increase by 400,000 tons while demand decreases by 500,000 tons in 2025 [7] Price Expectations - The expected price range for soda ash in the second half of 2025 is between 1,100 to 1,300 RMB in the spot market, with futures prices ranging from 1,100 to 1,400 RMB [8] - If favorable policies exceed expectations, prices could reach 1,150 to 1,500 RMB [8] - Current light soda ash prices are around 1,250 RMB, with significant losses across the industry, although some low-cost producers remain profitable due to reduced production costs [10][12] Profitability and Cost Structure - The industry is facing substantial losses, with production costs averaging 300 RMB lower due to declining raw material prices [10] - Low-cost producers such as Yuanxing Chemical and Su Salt are still profitable, with production costs below 1,100 RMB [12] - The overall industry is experiencing a cash flow impact, but many companies are managing to maintain operations despite losses [13] Future Capacity Changes - By the end of 2026, the soda ash industry is expected to add approximately 3 million tons of new capacity, with several projects already in the pipeline [17] - While some high-cost facilities may exit the market, the overall new capacity is expected to exceed the amount being phased out [18] Market Strategies for Investors - Investors are advised to consider participating in rebound opportunities and to explore arbitrage between soda ash and glass [31] - A volatility strategy may be beneficial, especially during periods of high implied volatility, which has recently reached over 80% [31][32] Conclusion - The soda ash industry is currently in a challenging phase with significant supply and demand imbalances, leading to price volatility and profitability concerns. Investors should remain cautious and consider strategic approaches to navigate the market effectively.

Group 1 - The current supply-side reform has transitioned from "Three Reductions and One Supplement" to a new paradigm of "Anti-Involution + Supply Optimization," with the core goal shifting from resolving excess capacity to enhancing total factor productivity [6][27][41] - The "Anti-Involution" reform is expected to reshape the long-term pricing logic of commodity markets, benefiting technology-intensive manufacturing and enterprises with strong "new quality productivity" [6][27][41] - The structural upgrade of excess capacity is evident, with new sectors such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaics becoming significant areas of concern, indicating a shift from primary products to complex manufactured goods [6][27][41] Group 2 - The 2015 supply-side reform primarily targeted excess capacity in basic raw material industries, while the current reform addresses structural excess capacity across the entire industrial chain [6][27][41] - The "Anti-Involution" policies are expected to lead to improved terminal profits through reduced downstream supply, which will drive upstream price declines, resulting in a transfer of industry profits to downstream sectors [6][27][39] - The head enterprises are likely to emerge from the downturn first, initiating an upward cycle in the market [6][27][39] Group 3 - The historical context shows that both the 2015 and current reforms were prompted by prolonged periods of negative PPI, indicating a persistent oversupply issue [41] - The current economic backdrop includes a decline in real estate and weak external demand, leading to structural overcapacity in various sectors, including traditional industries and emerging sectors [41][39] - The "Anti-Involution" reform aims to correct market failures and establish a unified national market, addressing issues of low-price disorderly competition and promoting high-quality development [27][28][39]

《炼化行业单位产品能源消耗限额》（GB 30251—2024）等13项能耗限额强制性国家标准自今年5月1 日起正式实施，这批标准涵盖化工、煤炭、采矿、造纸等多个国民经济重要产业。市场人士认为，投资 者应密切关注政策落地的节奏和终端需求的变化，在行业变革中捕捉结构性投资机会。 钢铁行业：推动产业结构优化增强企业竞争力 中银期货研究所黑色首席研究员吕肖华认为，能耗限额强制性国标的实施，将对钢铁行业产生利好。目 前，钢铁行业供应过剩、需求疲弱，供给侧结构性改革是行业健康发展的重要手段。能耗限额强制性国 标的实施，一是可以淘汰部分能效水平低、能耗高的落后产能，如《钢铁行业规范条件（2025年版）》 明确规定，400立方米及以下炼铁高炉、30吨及以下炼钢转炉等落后设备将被强制淘汰。二是规定新建 和改扩建钢铁项目的能效水平必须达到准入值，可以提高行业准入门槛，推动行业向高端化、绿色化发 展。企业为达到先进值或准入值标准，会加大对节能技术研发的投入，促进技术升级与创新。三是推动 钢铁企业兼并重组，进而推动产业结构优化并增强企业市场竞争力，助力实现碳达峰碳中和目标。 "能耗限额强制性国标的实施抬高了产能投资门槛，中长期也抬升 ...