作为粮食生产的"压舱石"，钾肥供应安全直接关联国家粮食安全与农资保供大局。当前国际钾肥市场集 中度高、地缘风险加剧，国内钾肥产业面临进口依赖与资源禀赋双重挑战，"十五五"期间中国钾肥产业 如何破局?近日，中国无机盐工业协会会长王孝峰接受《中国化工报》记者采访时，从市场格局、产业 现状、战略布局及科技创新四个维度，全面解读了中国钾肥供应安全的实现路径。 市场供应高度集中 数据显示，2024年全球钾肥总产能达6430万吨，其中氯化钾占比96%，贸易流向呈现"生产区向消费区 集中"的显著特征。加拿大、白俄罗斯、俄罗斯三国垄断全球钾肥70%~80%的出口量。"这种高度集中 的市场格局下，主要生产国的政策调整或地缘政治动荡，都可能威胁全球供应链安全。"王孝峰表示， 全球氯化钾价格受供需关系、能源成本与地缘政治等因素共振影响，2024年以来经历"低位震荡—集体 上涨—冲高回落"三阶段波动，2025年中价格冲高后小幅回落，凸显国际钾肥市场的不确定性。 供应链存潜在风险 "尽管面临资源禀赋不足的挑战，中国钾肥产业通过科技创新与资源挖掘仍实现了产量的稳定。"王孝峰 分析说，2022年在国家保供稳价政策引导下，中国钾肥产量增至5 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Chemical Industry Investment Opportunities Industry Overview - The chemical industry is currently experiencing historically low gross margins per ton due to rapid domestic capacity expansion leading to oversupply, while demand has not significantly decreased, indicating potential improvement in supply-demand dynamics in the future [1][2][3] - Companies are proactively reducing capital expenditures, with expectations of continued negative growth in capital expenditures for chemical listed companies from 2024 to 2026 [1][2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Both domestic and international supply sides are showing signs of contraction. Domestically, companies are reducing capital expenditures due to poor profitability, while internationally, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has increased energy costs in Europe and led to operational difficulties for global chemical leaders, accelerating the shutdown of production lines [1][3] - The demand side is expected to recover, with the U.S. entering a rate-cutting cycle, followed by China and the UK, which may lead to a resonance in demand between China and the U.S. [1][3] Emerging Opportunities - New industries such as renewable energy, energy storage, photovoltaics, and AI are expected to drive incremental demand for chemical products, with the industry projected to enter an upward cycle from 2026 to 2027 [1][3] - Recommended sectors include: - **Bottom Elastic Products**: Organic silicon and industrial silicon benefiting from high energy consumption characteristics and energy-saving trends (e.g., Hengsheng Silicon, Xin'an Chemical, Xingfa Group) [1][4] - **Soda Ash**: Benefiting from anti-dumping policies despite expansion (e.g., Boyuan Chemical) [1][4] - **PTA and Polyester Filament**: Stable growth in end-user demand (e.g., Tongkun, Xinfengming) [1][4] Investment Recommendations - Focus on quality stocks with bottom valuations and potential volume growth, such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Longbai Group, and Huahong New Materials [2][4][7] - Growth companies in tires and new materials are also worth attention, such as Sailun Tire, Xin Nuobang, and Shengquan Group, which benefit from AI, new energy development, and domestic substitution [5] Strategic Outlook for 2026 - The strategy for the petrochemical industry in 2026 will adopt a top-down framework due to prolonged low margins (10%-20%) and the completion of capital expenditures in 2023 and 2024 [6][7] - Anticipation of three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, reducing rates to around 3%, is expected to support a soft landing for the global economy [6] Key Focus Areas in Petrochemical Sector - The PTA sector is highlighted as a key area of focus, with optimism regarding market corrections and support from national policies [7][8] - Attention should also be given to cyclical sectors, including private refining companies like Satellite Chemical, Baofeng Energy, and Hengli Petrochemical, which are expected to experience reversals [8] Additional Investment Opportunities - Other notable investment opportunities include the POE market and Xinjiang coal chemical stocks, which are expected to perform well due to stable operations and significant profit margin potential [11] - Companies like Aerospace Engineering and 3D Chemical are highlighted for their safety margins and potential valuation recovery due to supportive policies [11]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 2026年钾肥大合同签订，中国继续保持全球钾肥"价格洼地" 根据中农集团消息，2025年11月23日中方钾肥进口谈判小组与食安供应链有限公司（迪拜）就2026年钾肥年度 进口合同价格达成一致，合同价格为348美元/吨（CFR），中国继续保持了全球钾肥"价格洼地"。该合同价格 相较于2025年钾肥大合同价格上涨约2美元/吨。此次钾肥大合同签订时间较往年显著提前，一方面将有效保证 我国冬储及春耕的钾肥需求，另一方面也反映出由于当前钾肥供需偏紧厂商提前锁价。 本订阅号是光大证券股份有限公司研究所（以下简称"光大证券研究所"）依法设立、独立运营的官方唯一订阅号。其他任 何以光大证券研究所名义注册的、或含有"光大证券研究"、与光大证券研 ...

Group 1: Metal Sector - Huaxi Nonferrous is expected to see net profit growth from CNY 6.58 billion in 2024 to CNY 11.40 billion in 2026, with a PE ratio decreasing from 37.28 to 21.52[10] - The company has a projected capacity increase to 0.6 million tons of tin and 1 million tons of antimony by 2027, benefiting from resource consolidation trends in Guangxi[12] Group 2: Construction Materials - Huaxin Cement's net profit is forecasted to rise from CNY 24.16 billion in 2024 to CNY 36.73 billion in 2026, with a PE ratio dropping from 17.21 to 11.32[10] - The company has diversified its growth strategy, focusing on overseas markets and stabilizing its aggregate business[28] Group 3: Transportation - ZTO Express is projected to achieve net profits of CNY 88.17 billion in 2024, increasing to CNY 104.11 billion by 2026, with a PE ratio improving from 13.39 to 11.34[10] - The "anti-involution" measures in the express delivery sector have led to a recovery in profitability, with significant improvements in average ticket prices since August 2025[33] Group 4: Energy Sector - ChuanTou Energy's net profit is expected to grow from CNY 45.08 billion in 2024 to CNY 52.59 billion in 2026, with a PE ratio decreasing from 15.93 to 13.65[10] - The company benefits from its stake in Yalong River Hydropower, which contributes significantly to its earnings[73] Group 5: Chemical Sector - Yara International's net profit is projected to increase from CNY 9.50 billion in 2024 to CNY 39.34 billion in 2026, with a PE ratio decreasing from 42.50 to 10.27[10] - The company is positioned as a leader in overseas potash mining, with significant reserves in Laos[49]

Core Insights - The report provides a summary of recommended stocks across various industries for December 2025, highlighting investment logic and potential growth opportunities for each company [2]. Industry Summaries Construction - Shenghui Integrated (603163.SH) is a Taiwanese cleanroom engineering service provider and a core engineering supplier for Google's TPU, poised to benefit from TSMC's expansion in the U.S. with potential orders from TSMC Arizona and multiple North American data centers [2]. Banking - China Merchants Bank (600036.SH) is expected to attract investors due to its stable operations and a projected dividend yield of 4.62% for the 2024 annual report, with increased demand for low-volatility stocks as market fluctuations rise [2]. Electronics - Aojie Technology (688220.SH) is positioned to benefit from the AI trend, with its unique 2-5G full-standard cellular communication capabilities and strong ASIC customization experience, which are expected to drive growth in wearable technology and other applications [2]. Power Equipment and New Energy - Delijia (603092.SH) maintains a leading market share in wind power main gearboxes, with a projected global market size of $11.563 billion by 2030 and a compound annual growth rate of 5.10% from 2024 to 2030, indicating stable growth prospects [2]. Basic Chemicals - Yaqi International (000893) is set to increase its potash fertilizer production capacity significantly, benefiting from a rising global potash market [2]. Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - Youran Dairy (9858.HK), a leading global dairy farming company, is expected to benefit from rising milk prices and beef prices, leading to improved performance [2]. Internet - Alibaba (9988.HK) is experiencing accelerated growth in cloud revenue, with a 34% year-on-year increase in FY26Q2, and is expected to continue improving profitability through enhanced user engagement and AI integration [2]. Pharmaceuticals - Yifeng Pharmacy (603939.SH) is anticipated to see profit improvements due to ongoing optimization of its store structure and a clear plan for non-pharmaceutical profit growth [2]. Home Appliances - Midea Group (000333.SZ) is focusing on dual-driven strategies in domestic and international markets, with strong cash flow and a favorable dividend yield, despite facing some pressure in Q4 [2]. Non-Bank Financials - Ping An Insurance (601318.SH) is increasing investments in high-quality long-term assets, with potential for valuation improvement as market conditions shift [2].

Summary of the Conference Call on the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry Strategy for 2026 Industry Overview - The petrochemical and chemical industry is currently experiencing a bottoming phase due to excessive capital expenditure driven by surging demand for new energy, leading to a supply-demand mismatch. Capital expenditure has significantly contracted in 2024, limiting new capacity additions. With the global interest rate cut cycle and improved trade relations, demand is expected to recover, benefiting stock trading strategies [1][2]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Oil Price Forecast**: It is anticipated that the oil price will stabilize around $60 per barrel in 2026, supported by OPEC+ halting production increases and a reduction in U.S. shale oil output. The price may fluctuate between $60 and $65, with potential temporary dips below $50 [4]. - **Natural Gas Demand**: The demand for natural gas is expected to grow significantly due to its role as a transitional clean energy source, with a projected 50% increase in apparent consumption by 2040 compared to 2024 or 2025. This trend is favorable for upstream companies like PetroChina [4][7]. - **Potash and Phosphate Industry**: International potash prices are expected to remain high due to natural demand growth and oligopolistic market conditions. Domestic companies like Yara International may see increased volumes due to China's strong reliance on potash resources. In the phosphate sector, the value of phosphate rock is being reassessed due to its application in energy storage, with demand expected to rise [5][6][8]. - **Fluorochemical Industry**: The fluorochemical sector is projected to have a positive outlook in 2026, with rising prices for refrigerants and PVDF driven by battery demand. The domestic PVDF industry operates at only 50% capacity, but a tight balance is expected for lithium battery-grade PVDF in 2026 [9]. - **Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)**: 2025 marked the beginning of SAF in Europe, with mandatory blending requirements. The demand and prices for SAF are expected to rise, with significant growth potential in regions like Singapore, South Korea, and Japan [10]. Additional Important Insights - **Investment Opportunities**: The report highlights investment opportunities in various segments, including potash, phosphate, fluorochemical, and sustainable aviation fuel. The overall growth rate in these sectors is expected to remain robust over the next couple of years, promising good investment returns [12]. - **Impact of Battery Technology**: The demand for phosphate rock in the battery sector is projected to grow rapidly, with phosphate rock usage in battery production nearing 20%. The declining quality of domestic phosphate rock will further increase consumption rates, driving price and value reassessment [8]. - **Performance of Major Companies**: PetroChina is expected to benefit from stable growth in its natural gas business, while Sinopec may see recovery in its refining segment, aided by low-cost advantages and expanded overseas price differentials [7]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the petrochemical and chemical industry's outlook for 2026, along with specific investment opportunities and company performances.

Core Insights - The report provides a summary of recommended stocks across various industries for December 2025, highlighting investment logic and potential growth opportunities for each company [2]. Industry Summaries Construction - Shenghui Integrated (603163.SH) is a Taiwanese cleanroom engineering service provider and a core engineering supplier for Google's TPU, poised to benefit from TSMC's expansion in the U.S. with potential orders from TSMC Arizona and multiple North American data centers [2]. Banking - China Merchants Bank (600036.SH) is expected to attract investors due to its stable operations and a projected dividend yield of 4.62% for the 2024 annual report, with increased demand for low-volatility stocks as market fluctuations rise [2]. Electronics - Aojie Technology (688220.SH) is positioned to benefit from the AI trend, with its unique 2-5G full-standard cellular communication capabilities and strong ASIC customization experience, which is expected to drive growth in wearable technology [2]. Power Equipment and New Energy - Delijia (603092.SH) maintains a leading market share in wind power main gearboxes, with a projected global market size of $11.563 billion by 2030 and a compound annual growth rate of 5.10% from 2024 to 2030 [2]. Basic Chemicals - Yaqi International (000893) is set to increase its potash fertilizer production capacity significantly, benefiting from a rising global potash market [2]. Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - Youran Dairy (9858.HK), a leading global dairy farming company, is expected to benefit from rising milk prices and beef price increases, leading to improved performance [2]. Internet - Alibaba (9988.HK) is experiencing accelerated growth in cloud revenue, with a 34% year-on-year increase in FY26Q2, and is expected to continue improving profitability [2]. Pharmaceuticals - Yifeng Pharmacy (603939.SH) is anticipated to see profit improvements due to ongoing optimization of its store structure and a clear planning rhythm for non-pharmaceutical profit increments [2]. Home Appliances - Midea Group (000333.SZ) is advancing its dual-driven strategy, focusing on both B2B and B2C markets, with strong cash flow and a favorable dividend yield, making it an attractive investment [2]. Non-Banking Financials - Ping An Insurance (601318.SH) is increasing investments in high-quality long-term assets, with potential for valuation improvement as market conditions shift [2].

Core Viewpoint - The chemical sector is currently experiencing a phase of consolidation, with the chemical ETF (516020) showing slight upward movement after initial low-level fluctuations, indicating potential investment opportunities in specific sub-sectors such as explosives, potash, and phosphorus chemicals [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The chemical ETF (516020) saw a price increase of 0.13% during the trading session, reflecting a broader trend in the chemical sector [1] - Key stocks in the sector, such as Guangdong Hongda, Yaqi International, and Salt Lake Co., have shown significant gains, with Guangdong Hongda rising over 4% [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - The chemical industry is currently at a dual bottom in terms of valuation and profitability, with expectations of demand improvement due to the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts and stabilization of global political conditions [2][3] - Cost pressures are anticipated to ease, with oil and coal prices expected to remain under pressure, leading to weaker cost support for chemical products [2] - The construction of basic chemical projects is projected to decline by 12.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, indicating a tightening supply situation [2] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Analysts suggest focusing on sectors that may benefit from anti-involution policies, such as pesticides, organic silicon, and polyester filament, which are expected to have significant profit elasticity [3] - The chemical ETF (516020) is highlighted as a cost-effective investment option, with its underlying index trading at a price-to-book ratio of 2.28, which is relatively low compared to historical levels [3] - The chemical sector is poised for a potential performance and valuation uplift driven by supply-side reforms and improved management practices among leading companies [3] Group 4: ETF Strategy - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI segmented chemical industry index, providing exposure to various sub-sectors, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap leading stocks [4] - Investors can also consider the chemical ETF linked funds (Class A 012537/Class C 012538) for efficient exposure to the chemical sector [4]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical sector is currently experiencing a phase of consolidation, with the chemical ETF (516020) showing slight upward movement after initial low-level fluctuations, indicating potential investment opportunities in specific sub-sectors like ammonium explosives, potash, and phosphate chemicals [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The chemical ETF (516020) saw a price increase of 0.13% during the trading session, reflecting a slight recovery in the sector [1][2]. - Key stocks in the sector, such as Guangdong Hongda, Yada International, and Salt Lake Co., have shown significant gains, with Guangdong Hongda rising over 4% [1][2]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The chemical industry is positioned at a dual bottom in terms of valuation and profitability, with expectations of demand improvement due to the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts and stabilization in global political conditions [1][3]. - Cost pressures are anticipated to ease, with oil and coal prices expected to remain under pressure, leading to weaker cost support for chemical products [1][3]. - The construction of new projects in the basic chemical sector is projected to decline by 12.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, indicating a tightening supply situation [1][3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Analysts suggest focusing on sectors that may benefit from supply-side improvements and have high profitability elasticity, such as pesticides, organic silicon, and polyester filament [3][4]. - The chemical ETF (516020) is recommended for investors looking to capitalize on the sector's rebound, as it tracks a comprehensive index covering various sub-sectors, with significant allocations to leading companies [4].

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is currently at a dual bottom in valuation and profitability, with potential for a turning point driven by anti-involution policies and a recovering demand environment [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - As of November 20, the chemical sector has seen a 37% increase, primarily driven by technology-related themes [1] - The basic chemical sector reported a net profit of 116 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.45%, with varied performance across sub-sectors [1] - The supply side shows a 12.4% year-on-year decrease in the total amount of ongoing projects in the basic chemical sector for H1 2025 [1] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand side is expected to improve due to the Federal Reserve's resumption of interest rate cuts and a stabilizing global political situation, with domestic exports and the automotive sector supporting demand [1] - The fertilizer sector anticipates a price increase for potash in 2026, with a tight supply-demand balance expected from 2026 to 2028 [2] - The refrigerant market is experiencing a steady increase in demand due to quota restrictions and the accelerated reduction of second-generation refrigerants [2] Group 3: Material and Technology Trends - The demand for high-performance new materials is accelerating, driven by AI and semiconductor needs, with a notable rise in demand for high-frequency and high-speed resins [3] - The semiconductor materials sector is focusing on domestic production to enhance supply chain security [3] - The cooling liquid market is evolving, with immersion cooling becoming a significant future direction due to increasing server power requirements [3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies in the potash sector include Dongfang Tower, Yaqi International, and Salt Lake Co [4] - In the phosphochemical sector, suggested companies are Chuanheng Co, Yuntu Holdings, and Xingfa Group [4] - For refrigerants, companies like Juhua Co, Sanmei Co, and Yonghe Co are highlighted [4]