Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown a continuous increase in net profit margin, with expectations for further catalysts in the future [7] - The company is entering a phase of efficiency improvement, with significant growth in revenue and net profit projected for the coming years [7] - The valuation is considered to have a sufficient margin of safety, with a projected P/E ratio of around 20X for 2026 [7] Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company is expected to achieve total revenue of 48.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.54% [1] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 1.29 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 338.52% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted to be 6.81 yuan per share for 2025 [1] - The company’s net profit margin for Q3 2025 was reported at 5.2%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.1 percentage points [7] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 12.1%, up by 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [7] Revenue and Profit Growth - The company achieved a revenue of 36.56 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 77.4% [7] - The net profit for the same period was 850 million yuan, showing a remarkable year-on-year growth of 917% [7] - The company’s snack retail business has seen significant growth, with Q3 2025 revenue reaching 138.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.6% [7] Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue benefiting from reduced competition and improved operational efficiency, which may lead to further increases in net profit margins [7] - New store formats for cost-saving supermarkets are being steadily piloted and promoted [7] - The company has already recovered minority shareholder rights twice, with expectations for further acquisitions to enhance the proportion of net profit attributable to the parent company [7]

Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by the growth of its bulk snack business [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 36.562 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 77.37% [1] - The net profit attributable to the company was 855 million yuan, showing a remarkable year-on-year increase of 917.04% [1] - The net profit growth was primarily due to improved operational efficiency in the bulk snack business and an increase in edible mushroom prices [1] Business Segment Performance - The bulk snack business generated a cumulative revenue of 36.158 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.595 billion yuan from January to September [1] - After adjusting for stock-based compensation expenses, the net profit for the same period was 1.693 billion yuan [1] - For the third quarter (July to September), the cumulative revenue was 13.813 billion yuan, with a net profit of 695 million yuan, which adjusted for stock-based compensation expenses resulted in a net profit of 736 million yuan [1] Strategic Developments - The company experienced rapid expansion of its store network during the reporting period [1] - There was a simultaneous enhancement in operational efficiency and brand strength within the bulk snack business [1]

国泰海通I业务 | 政策和产业研究院 越南投资论 携手越南 · 逐浪远航 2025 年 10月 21日 13:30-17:30 上海 - 国泰海通外滩金融广场 C 栋 616 会议室 东南亚是中国周边外交的优先方向和高质量共建"一带一路"重点地区, 连续 5年与中国互为最大贸易伙伴,是中资企业走出去的重要区域。 越南作为东南亚最具潜力的经济体之一,是中国在东盟的第一大贸易国, 也是中资企业出海的重点方向。为搭建交流合作平台,探寻越南产业及投 资机遇,国泰海通证券政策和产业研究院拟于 10月 21日在上海举办"携 手越南 · 逐浪远航"为题的越南投资论坛,邀请金融、制造、消费、法律等 领域多位重磅嘉宾与会,共同探讨机遇,携手共向未来! 诚邀您的莅临! 主持人:李 俊 - 国泰海通证券政策和产业研究院国别研究联席首席分析师 13:30 - 13:40 致苦辛 国泰海通证券政策和产业研究院领导 中国东盟经贸合作与出海东南亚 13:40 - 14:10 梁文洮 - 天裕丰咨询创始人、原商务部亚洲司副司长 黄金十年伊始 - 越南宏观经济与投资展望 14:10 - 14:40 黄 博 - 国泰君安(越南)总经理 机构客户 ...

Core Viewpoint - The snack retail industry is entering a new competitive phase, with leading companies like Wanchen Group and Mingming Hen Mang focusing on store expansion and brand consolidation, while facing challenges related to market saturation and operational efficiency [2][8]. Group 1: Company Expansion and Strategy - Wanchen Group submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in September 2023, aiming to enhance its global strategy and competitive edge through capital operations and store network expansion [2]. - As of mid-2023, Wanchen Group operated 15,365 stores, having opened 1,177 new stores in the first half of the year, which is less than 60% of the previous year's growth rate [2][3]. - The company has integrated its brands into "Haoxianglai" and is expanding its snack retail segment through acquisitions, such as the purchase of Nanjing Wanyou, which will increase its store count but also raise its debt levels [2][7]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Challenges - Wanchen Group's revenue growth has been heavily reliant on store expansion, with projected revenue reaching 32.329 billion yuan in 2024, driven by a net increase of 9,470 stores [3][4]. - The company has reduced its subsidy expenses for new store openings, leading to a slowdown in the opening of new stores, with only 1,177 new stores opened in the first half of 2023 compared to 2,105 in the same period last year [5][6]. - Following the acquisition of Nanjing Wanyou, Wanchen Group's debt-to-asset ratio is expected to rise significantly, impacting its net profit due to increased financial costs [7]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Competitive Landscape - The snack retail sector is transitioning from rapid store expansion to a focus on operational efficiency and brand differentiation, as market saturation poses challenges to growth [8][9]. - Competitors like Mingming Hen Mang are also expanding aggressively, with over 20,000 stores announced in September 2023, highlighting the competitive pressure in the industry [6][9]. - The industry is witnessing a shift towards private label products, with companies like Wanchen Group launching new brands to enhance product differentiation and meet consumer demands [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The company Wanchen Biotechnology has rapidly transformed from a mushroom cultivation business to a leading player in the snack industry, achieving over 15,000 stores but facing significant debt challenges as it prepares for a Hong Kong IPO [1][6][22]. Group 1: Company Transformation and Growth - Wanchen Biotechnology entered the snack market in August 2022 and has since acquired regional brands, rebranding them under "Haoxianglai," aiming to become the first snack brand with over 10,000 stores by March 2025 [3][6]. - The revenue from the snack business surged from 12% of total revenue in 2022 to over 98% in the first half of 2025, while the mushroom business's contribution dropped to 1.7% by 2024 [4][6]. - Revenue skyrocketed from over 500 million in 2022 to 32.3 billion in 2024, with 22.5 billion in the first half of 2025 [6]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Debt Issues - The number of stores increased dramatically from 160 in 2022 to 15,300 by mid-2025, covering 29 provinces, primarily targeting lower-tier markets [6][9]. - Despite rapid expansion, the net profit margin fell to just over 3% in the first half of 2025, with a loss reported in 2023, compared to a peak of 21% previously [6][9]. - Total liabilities rose from 332 million at the end of 2022 to 5.1 billion by the end of 2024, indicating a 15-fold increase in three years [7][10]. Group 3: Market Competition and Challenges - The snack industry is highly competitive, with rivals like "Zero Franchise Fee" initiatives, making it difficult for franchisees to achieve profitability [12][14]. - Wanchen's inventory increased from 63.2 million in 2022 to 1.6 billion in the first half of 2025, raising concerns about inventory management and franchisee sales [16]. - The company faces governance challenges with a family succession plan, as the new leader, born in 1993, must navigate the complexities of a public offering and high debt levels [20][22]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Market Position - The snack market remains promising, but the company must focus on efficiency and profitability rather than just scale [24]. - Wanchen's market share is currently only 0.91%, with the top five brands collectively holding 3.85%, indicating a fragmented market [20][22]. - The upcoming IPO may bring new challenges, as regulatory scrutiny will likely focus on high debt levels and the stability of the franchise system [22][24].

yy.kou@htisec.com yl.luo@htisec.com [Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 15 Oct 2025 万辰集团 Wanchen Group (300972 CH) 前期股权计划第二阶段落地，彰显公司对业绩增长的信心 Stock Incentive Plan Phase II Demonstrates Company's Confidence in Earnings Growth 寇媛媛 Yuanyuan Kou 骆雅丽 Yali Luo [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件：2025 年 5 月 14 日，万辰集团首次发布 2025 年限制性股票激励计划。2025 年 10 月 13 日，公司发布 2025 年 预留部分（第一批次）限制性股票激励计划。两次激励计划的考核目标一致，股权激励计划中仍剩余 23.5 万股暂 未授予。 2025 年限制性股票激励计划：公司计划拟向激励对象授予共计约 ...

Core Viewpoint - The snack retail industry is entering a new competitive phase, with companies like Wancheng Group and Mingming Hen Mang leading the market. Wancheng Group is pursuing an IPO to enhance its global strategy and expand its store network, but faces challenges in maintaining growth and profitability due to market saturation and increased competition [1][2]. Group 1: Company Expansion and Strategy - Wancheng Group officially launched its IPO application in September 2023, aiming to establish an international capital platform and enhance competitiveness through store network expansion [1]. - The company has seen significant growth in store numbers, reaching 15,365 stores by mid-2023, but the pace of new openings has slowed, with only 1,177 new stores added in the first half of 2023, less than 60% of the previous year's rate [1][6]. - Wancheng Group's revenue growth is heavily reliant on store expansion, with projections indicating a net increase of 9,470 stores in 2024, leading to an expected revenue of 32.329 billion yuan [2][5]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Challenges - Despite achieving a revenue increase of 106.89% in the first half of 2023, Wancheng Group's growth rate is the lowest in three years, indicating potential challenges ahead [6]. - The company's financial burden is expected to increase following a planned acquisition of a 49% stake in Nanjing Wanyou for 1.379 billion yuan, which will raise its debt levels significantly [7]. - Wancheng Group's reliance on subsidies to attract franchisees has led to high sales and management expenses, with net profit margins dropping to 1.87% [5][6]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics and Competition - The snack retail sector is transitioning from rapid expansion to a focus on operational efficiency and refined management, as the market approaches saturation [8]. - Competitors like Mingming Hen Mang are also expanding aggressively, with over 20,000 stores announced in September 2023, highlighting the intense competition in the sector [6][8]. - The industry is witnessing a shift towards private label products, with Wancheng Group launching its own brands to enhance differentiation and address consumer loyalty challenges [9].

Core Insights - The rapid growth of the bulk snack retail sector in China is shifting towards a focus on "quality-price ratio," reflecting changing consumer preferences for products that balance quality and affordability [3][12]. Industry Overview - The hard discount retail model, successfully implemented by companies like ALDI, LIDL, and Costco, emphasizes supply chain optimization, private label products, and cost control to benefit consumers with lower prices [5][12]. - The hard discount retail sector in China is projected to grow from approximately RMB 236.2 billion in 2024 to RMB 1,013.8 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 33.8% [12]. Company Strategy - Wanchen Group, the only listed company in the bulk snack sector, is pursuing a unique path tailored to the Chinese market, focusing on a diverse product range and rapid product updates [6][9]. - The company operates over 15,000 stores, with more than 99% being franchise locations, allowing for rapid market penetration and reduced financial pressure [9][11]. - Wanchen's dual-brand strategy includes "Good Value" for cost-sensitive consumers and "Good Selection" for quality-focused customers, enhancing brand recognition and catering to different market segments [11][12]. Operational Efficiency - The company has implemented a centralized procurement system, sourcing approximately 95% of its products directly from brand owners, which reduces costs and optimizes the supply chain [6][12]. - Wanchen's digital systems support over 15,000 stores, enhancing operational efficiency through data-driven decision-making and real-time monitoring of store performance [13][15]. Customer Engagement - Wanchen has successfully converted offline traffic into online membership, with over 150 million registered members and a significant contribution to the company's GMV [17][18]. - The company has developed a private membership program that enhances customer loyalty and engagement, with active members showing high purchase frequency [17][18].

Core Insights - The main focus of the articles is on the rapid expansion and challenges faced by Wanchen Group, the parent company of the snack retail brand "Haoxianglai," as it prepares for its IPO in Hong Kong. The company has seen significant growth in the number of franchise stores but is facing increasing competition and market saturation [1][4][10]. Company Overview - Wanchen Group was established in 2011, initially focusing on the cultivation of edible mushrooms. It later shifted its primary business to snack retail, with "Haoxianglai" being its most recognized brand [2]. - As of June 30, 2023, Wanchen Group operates over 15,000 franchise stores, with a target to increase this number significantly by mid-2025 [1][4]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2023, Wanchen Group generated revenue of 218 billion yuan from sales to franchisees, marking a year-on-year increase of 112.56%, which accounted for 96.6% of total revenue [4]. - The company's total revenue is projected to grow from 93 billion yuan in 2023 to 323.3 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 247.9% [7][8]. Market Dynamics - The snack retail market is becoming increasingly competitive, with Wanchen Group and its competitor, Mingming Hen Mang, dominating the landscape. The saturation of prime locations is leading to longer payback periods for franchisees, which can extend to three years in some cases [4][10]. - The entry of private label snacks from supermarkets and online platforms is diverting consumer spending away from traditional snack retailers, although the impact has not yet been reflected in financial reports [7]. Challenges and Strategic Directions - Franchisees are experiencing pressure on profit margins due to increased competition and rising operational costs. Initial investment costs for new franchisees have reportedly risen to around 1 million yuan [5]. - Wanchen Group plans to use funds from its IPO to expand and upgrade its store network, enhance product offerings, improve logistics efficiency, and upgrade digital infrastructure [10].

Core Viewpoint - Wanchen Group, the parent company of "Haoxianglai," has submitted an application for a public listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to raise funds for expanding its store network, enhancing product offerings, improving logistics efficiency, and upgrading digital infrastructure [1][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - Wanchen Group operates its snack business primarily under the "Haoxianglai" brand, with a total of 15,365 snack and beverage stores across 29 provinces and regions in China as of June 2025, of which 99% are franchise stores [1][4]. - The company plans to increase its store count from 14,098 at the end of 2024 to an average of 7 new stores per day in the first half of 2025 [1][4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - As of August 31, 2025, Wanchen Group has accumulated over 150 million registered members, supporting its growth trajectory [2][4]. - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 22.583 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 106.89%, while net profit surged to 472 million yuan, reflecting a staggering increase of over 50,000% [2][6]. - The snack wholesale business generated 22.345 billion yuan in revenue during the same period, marking a 109.33% year-on-year growth [6]. Group 3: Market Position and Strategy - Wanchen Group is positioned as a leading player in the snack retail market, with its "Haoxianglai" brand ranking first in China's snack and beverage retail sector by gross merchandise volume (GMV) as of 2024 [4][6]. - The company has diversified its product offerings across 12 core categories, including beverages, dairy products, snacks, and convenience foods, with over 2,000 SKUs to meet diverse consumer needs [5][6]. - The planned dual listing (A+H) is expected to strengthen the company's market position and expand its successful discount model into broader fast-moving consumer goods markets [3].