Core Viewpoint - The British pound is expected to exhibit a volatile upward trend against the US dollar in 2025, supported by a weaker dollar and diverging monetary policies between the UK and the US [1][3]. Group 1: External Environment - The US dollar index is projected to decline significantly in 2025, with an annual drop of approximately 9% [3]. - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut interest rates by a total of 75 basis points during the year, leading to decreased attractiveness of dollar assets and a shift towards non-US currencies, benefiting the pound [3]. - The Bank of England is expected to maintain a cautious approach to monetary easing, with only a 50 basis point rate cut for the year and a stable rate at the end of the year, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation risks [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve's policy will remain a key variable influencing the GBP/USD exchange rate in 2026, with market expectations of potential further rate cuts, though inflation risks may limit the extent of easing [3][5]. - The Bank of England's easing expectations are relatively moderate, with some institutions predicting possible rate cuts in 2026, but actual adjustments may be less than initially anticipated due to sticky service sector inflation and economic recovery uncertainties [3]. Group 3: Market Focus and Technical Analysis - In the short term, market attention will be on signals from the US and UK central banks and key economic data [4]. - US manufacturing and consumer confidence indicators will impact perceptions of the Federal Reserve's policy path, while UK inflation trends will influence the Bank of England's future policy [5]. - Technically, the GBP/USD pair has support around 1.3350 and resistance near 1.3480, indicating that the exchange rate will be closely tied to policy expectations and fundamental changes [5].

Core Viewpoint - In the context of increasing interdependence in global financial markets, providing safe, efficient, and compliant cross-border financial services has become crucial for the industry. OEXN, as an international service provider, aims to build a robust multinational service system while adhering to strict regulatory compliance, thereby gaining trust in the global market and enhancing user experience [8]. Group 1: Global Service System - OEXN is committed to creating an efficient global financial service network to meet diverse and personalized user needs [8]. - The company has established a professional multilingual customer service team to eliminate language and cultural barriers, ensuring clear communication for users from different countries [9]. - OEXN actively adjusts its service strategies and operational models to respect local market uniqueness, enhancing user comfort and engagement [9]. - A global response mechanism has been implemented to ensure timely handling of user inquiries, improving service efficiency [9]. Group 2: Compliance and Regulatory Framework - OEXN views compliance as a core competitive advantage and prioritizes adherence to laws and regulations in various countries [10]. - The company has obtained licenses from multiple authoritative regulatory bodies, demonstrating its commitment to high transparency and regulatory compliance [10]. - OEXN has established a robust internal compliance system that exceeds basic regulatory requirements, including anti-money laundering (AML) and know your customer (KYC) policies [10]. - User asset protection is prioritized through strict client fund segregation, ensuring user funds are kept separate from company operational funds [10]. Group 3: Technology Empowerment - OEXN invests in advanced security technologies to build a strong information security defense, protecting user data and privacy [10]. - The company employs advanced risk management tools and algorithms to effectively identify and manage potential risks, promoting transparency in operations [10]. Conclusion - OEXN exemplifies the successful integration of exceptional multinational service capabilities with a strong commitment to compliance, meeting diverse market needs while ensuring user fund safety and legal rights. The combination of global service, local engagement, and compliance is key to gaining international user trust and promoting sustainable development in the financial industry [10].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview: China Manufacturing Sector - Significant rebound in official manufacturing PMI: The NBS manufacturing PMI rose from 49.2 in November to 50.1 in December, surpassing both consensus and expectations. This rebound contrasts with declining steel production and subdued Emerging Industries PMI, aligning with the typical "quarter-end rebound" pattern observed in 2025, where PMI increased in March, June, September, and December, then declined the following month due to pressure to boost GDP growth at quarter-end [1][4] Consumer Goods - Extension of consumer goods trade-in program: On December 30, the NDRC and MOF released guidelines for the consumer goods trade-in program for 2026. The program initially boosted retail sales in Q4 2024 and H1 2025, but its impact diminished after June due to funding shortages and approval tightening. The new guidelines adjust subsidy categories and levels, with full-year subsidies projected at approximately RMB 250 billion in 2026, slightly less than the RMB 300 billion allocated in 2025 [2] Economic Growth Projections - Expected slowdown in growth: Growth is projected to slow from 3.8% in 2025 to 2.7% in 2026 due to fewer subsidies and their fading impact [5] Currency Dynamics - USD/CNY exchange rate: The USD/CNY broke below 7.0 at the end of 2025, despite PBOC's daily fixings signaling a moderation in the pace of appreciation. The fixing remained at 7.0288 by year-end, above the model-implied value near 7.00. Key drivers include broad USD weakness and year-end FX settlement demand. The PBOC may prefer a stronger CNY while avoiding rapid appreciation. Projections indicate USD/CNY reaching 6.95/6.90/6.85 in 3/6/12 months [5] Retail Sales and Economic Activity - Retail sales and economic activity: Recent data indicates that retail sales fell in November, and manufacturing PMIs and official non-manufacturing PMI increased in December. Industrial profits and revenue edged up sequentially in November, while November activity data broadly missed market expectations [7] Additional Insights - Policymakers unveiled implementation details for the 2026 "dual upgrade" program, indicating a focus on enhancing economic resilience and sustainability [7] - The PBOC adopted a measured easing stance at the Q4 MPC meeting, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary policy amid economic challenges [7] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, focusing on the manufacturing sector, consumer goods, economic growth projections, currency dynamics, and overall economic activity in China.

Group 1 - The GBP/USD pair has shown a mild increase to around 1.3510 during the early European session, continuing its recent strong trend supported by both fundamental and technical factors, while also considering the impact of market liquidity changes ahead of the holidays [1] - The Bank of England has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% during the December monetary policy meeting, with Governor Andrew Bailey indicating a cautious approach to future rate decisions based on economic data [2] - Market participants are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path, with the December meeting minutes expected to provide short-term guidance, while overall trading volume is anticipated to remain light due to the upcoming New Year holidays [2] Group 2 - The daily chart indicates that GBP/USD is currently holding above the 100-day moving average, which is positioned around 1.3335, providing foundational support, while also trading above the 20-day moving average, confirming short-term trend support [4] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 69.87, nearing the overbought territory, suggesting a need to monitor momentum changes after the recent upward movement [4] - The Bollinger Bands show that the upper resistance is at 1.3550, with prices currently running just below this level, indicating reduced market volatility but dominant buying pressure [4] Group 3 - The overall technical structure for GBP/USD leans bullish, with a key resistance level at 1.3550 that, if broken, could extend the upward trend, while the support area at 1.3410 needs to be monitored [5] - The decline in liquidity due to the holidays may amplify market volatility, and the FOMC meeting minutes are noteworthy for market participants [5] - As long as prices remain above the major moving averages, the technical outlook continues to support bullish sentiment [5]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting organized by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange emphasizes the importance of risk prevention, strong regulation, and promoting high-quality development in the foreign exchange sector [1] Group 1: Responsibilities and Actions - The leadership is urged to fulfill their responsibilities and take on challenges, focusing on risk prevention and regulatory strength [1] - There is a call to enhance responsibility awareness and improve performance capabilities among the new leaders [1] Group 2: Reform and Development - Continuous deepening of reforms and opening up in the foreign exchange field is highlighted as a priority [1] - The promotion of convenience in cross-border trade and investment financing is a key objective [1] Group 3: Risk Management - The meeting stresses the importance of preventing risks associated with cross-border capital flows [1] - Ensuring the safety, liquidity, and value preservation of foreign exchange reserve assets is crucial [1] Group 4: Market Stability - The need to maintain stability in the foreign exchange market and safeguard national economic and financial security is underscored [1]

Range P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 C5 C4 C3 C2 C1 Lower 0 0.15 0.25 0.5 0.75 0.75 0.5 0.25 0.15 0 Global FX Strategy Craig Chan - NSL craig.chan@nomura.com +65 6433 6544 Wee Choon Teo - NSL weechoon.teo@nomura.com +65 6433 6107 Upper 0.15 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1 0.75 0.5 0.25 0.15 Global Markets Research 23 December 2025 Research analysts | | | | | | Top trades in past 24h | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rank | Trade date | Trade time | Pair | Type | Strike | Expiry | Tenor (m) | $ not ...

在全球经济深度融合的背景下，技术驱动已成为金融服务业发展的核心引擎。FPG平台通过持续的技术创新与前瞻性的市场洞察，重塑全球资源配置渠道的 服务价值。本报告将聚焦该平台在智能化系统构建、算法优化与新兴领域布局方面的突破，探讨其如何推动行业基础设施升级，并为全球市场参与者把握动 态趋势提供重要工具支持。 二、算法架构突破：实现精准趋势映射 在核心算法层，FPG工程团队开发了复合型预测模型体系。该体系创新性地融合了时间序列分析、神经网络学习与行为经济学建模三重技术路径，有效解决 了传统单一模型在趋势拐点识别中的滞后性问题。测试数据显示，该预测框架对主要汇率品种的中期趋势方向判断准确度稳定维持在75%以上，尤其在重要 经济数据发布窗口期的短期预判中，准确率峰值可达82%。这为全球市场参与者进行战略规划提供了科学的决策依据。 一、智能化技术：引领资源配置效率变革 面对复杂的全球流动环境，传统服务模式面临响应速度与精准度的挑战。FPG平台将机器学习模型深度集成至核心架构，实现了三大关键突破：动态数据分 析系统可实时解析全球财经事件与市场情绪波动，为资源配置决策提供多维度参考；智能预警机制通过模式识别技术主动监控非常规波 ...

Monex Inc.外汇交易员Andrew Hazlett：本周流动性薄弱，这对本已处于相对弱势的美元并无帮助。 展望未来，我们的重点将放在通胀数据上，以此作为美联储下次降息的指引。 ...

Group 1 - The GBP/USD exchange rate slightly retreated to 1.3518 but remains above the 1.35 level, having previously reached a new high of 1.3502 for October, with an annual increase of over 8% [2] - The current exchange rate movement is driven by the divergence in monetary policy between the UK and the US, the performance of the dollar, and changes in market liquidity [2] - The Bank of England is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in December, with noticeable internal disagreements among decision-makers, signaling a cautious approach to policy adjustments [2] Group 2 - The UK’s inflation rate fell to 3.2% in November, providing room for monetary policy adjustments, and the market anticipates a gradual pace of future rate cuts by the Bank of England, limiting pressure on the pound [2] - The weakening dollar, which has dropped over 9% this year, is another significant factor affecting the exchange rate, despite a strong GDP growth performance in the US for Q3 [2] - The strong performance of the pound against the weak dollar has contributed to the exchange rate surpassing the critical 1.35 level [2] Group 3 - From a technical analysis perspective, the GBP/USD is in a bullish trend after breaking 1.35, but short-term adjustments may occur due to reduced market liquidity during the Christmas holiday [3] - The 1.34 level is seen as a crucial support level, while the range of 1.3550 to 1.36 constitutes major resistance [3] - Technical indicators suggest a strong overall trend, but the upward momentum is showing signs of slowing down [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline of the USD/CAD exchange rate reflects the differing economic expectations and monetary policy stances between the United States and Canada, with the USD under pressure and the CAD showing relative strength [1][3]. Economic Data - The U.S. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 4.3% from July to September, significantly exceeding market expectations of 3.3% and surpassing the previous quarter's growth of 3.8% [4]. - The core personal consumption expenditures price index rose by 2.9% quarter-on-quarter, aligning with market expectations, while the GDP price index increased by 3.7%, higher than the forecast of 2.7% [4]. - Despite strong economic data, there are concerns regarding sustainability, with some analysts noting that growth is partially reliant on healthcare spending and inventory depletion, limiting support for domestic demand [4]. Market Sentiment - The market is reassessing the future path of U.S. monetary policy, with expectations shifting towards potential rate cuts in 2026, which diminishes the medium-term attractiveness of the USD [3]. - The upcoming holiday season is expected to reduce market liquidity, making price adjustments more susceptible to changes in sentiment and expectations [4]. Canadian Economic Outlook - Canada's economy showed signs of recovery, with a preliminary estimate indicating a 0.1% month-on-month growth in November, following a 0.3% contraction in October [5]. - The Bank of Canada maintained its overnight rate at 2.25%, signaling a cautious approach to future policy decisions based on incoming data, which contrasts with the discussions surrounding potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5].