Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Not provided Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance 10-Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On October 10, 2025, the 10-year Treasury yields of the US, UK, France, etc., were 4.034, 4.674, 3.478 respectively [1] - The latest changes in the 10-year Treasury yields of the US, UK, France, etc., were -0.105, -0.070, -0.046 respectively [1] - The one-week changes in the 10-year Treasury yields of the US, UK, France, etc., were -0.137, -0.082, -0.122 respectively [1] - The one-month changes in the 10-year Treasury yields of the US, UK, France, etc., were -0.128, -0.045, -0.012 respectively [1] - The one-year changes in the 10-year Treasury yields of the US, UK, France, etc., were 0.237, 0.665, 0.499 respectively [1] 2-Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On October 10, 2025, the 2-year Treasury yields of the US, UK, Germany, etc., were 3.600, 3.952, 1.957 respectively [1] - The latest changes in the 2-year Treasury yields of the US, UK, Germany, etc., were -0.030, -0.047, -0.037 respectively [1] - The one-week changes in the 2-year Treasury yields of the US, UK, Germany, etc., were 0.070, -0.061, -0.079 respectively [1] - The one-month changes in the 2-year Treasury yields of the US, UK, Germany, etc., were 0.090, 0.008, -0.004 respectively [1] - The one-year changes in the 2-year Treasury yields of the US, UK, Germany, etc., were 0.110, -0.007, -0.168 respectively [1] US Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging Market Currencies - On October 10, 2025, the US dollar exchange rates against the Brazilian real, South African rand, South Korean won, etc., were 5.521, 17.505, 1425.300 respectively [1] - The latest changes in the US dollar exchange rates against the Brazilian real, South African rand, South Korean won, etc., were 2.82%, 1.68%, - respectively [1] - The one-week changes in the US dollar exchange rates against the Brazilian real, South African rand, South Korean won, etc., were 2.93%, 0.45%, 1.14% respectively [1] - The one-month changes in the US dollar exchange rates against the Brazilian real, South African rand, South Korean won, etc., were 1.36%, -1.54%, 2.15% respectively [1] - The one-year changes in the US dollar exchange rates against the Brazilian real, South African rand, South Korean won, etc., were 1.53%, 1.92%, 8.19% respectively [1] Stock Indices of Major Economies - On October 10, 2025, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ, etc., were 6552.510, 45479.600, 22204.430 respectively [1] - The latest changes in the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ, etc., were -2.71%, -1.90%, -3.56% respectively [1] - The one-week changes in the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ, etc., were -0.79%, -1.02%, -0.81% respectively [1] - The one-month changes in the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ, etc., were 0.78%, -0.31%, 2.29% respectively [1] - The one-year changes in the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ, etc., were 14.05%, 7.84%, 22.07% respectively [1] Credit Bond Indices - On October 10, 2025, the US investment-grade credit bond index, eurozone investment-grade credit bond index, etc., were 3529.690, 265.945 respectively [1] - The latest changes in the US investment-grade credit bond index, eurozone investment-grade credit bond index, etc., were 0.34%, 0.12% respectively [1] - The one-week changes in the US investment-grade credit bond index, eurozone investment-grade credit bond index, etc., were 0.73%, 0.56% respectively [2] - The one-month changes in the US investment-grade credit bond index, eurozone investment-grade credit bond index, etc., were 1.28%, 0.76% respectively [2] - The one-year changes in the US investment-grade credit bond index, eurozone investment-grade credit bond index, etc., were 4.15%, 4.21% respectively [2] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of A-shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc., were 3897.03, 4616.83, 2974.85 respectively [3] - The percentage changes in A-shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc., were -0.94%, -1.97%, -1.51% respectively [3] - The PE(TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, etc., were 14.25, 11.78, 35.18 respectively [3] - The环比 changes in the PE(TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, etc., were -0.17, -0.08, -0.65 respectively [3] - The risk premiums of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, etc., were -,-,- respectively [3] - The环比 changes in the risk premiums of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, etc., were -,-,- respectively [3] - The latest values of the capital flows of A-shares, the main board, the small and medium-sized enterprise board, etc., were -1620.00, -835.68, - respectively [3] - The average values of the capital flows of A-shares, the main board, the small and medium-sized enterprise board, etc., in the past 5 days were -412.41, -218.67, - respectively [3] - The latest values of the trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc., were 25156.14, 7927.43, 2001.81 respectively [3] - The环比 changes in the trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc., were -1375.83, -694.65, -317.42 respectively [3] - The basis of IF, IH, IC, etc., were -24.63, 0.95, -132.22 respectively [3] - The basis spreads of IF, IH, IC, etc., were -0.53%, 0.03%, -1.79% respectively [3] Treasury Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, TF01 were 107.980, 105.650, 107.690, 105.550 respectively [4] - The percentage changes of T00, TF00, T01, TF01 were 0.19%, 0.09%, 0.18%, 0.09% respectively [4] - The R001, R007, SHIBOR-3M were 1.3263%, 1.4850%, 1.5780% respectively [4] - The daily changes (BP) of R001, R007, SHIBOR-3M were -21.00, -5.00, 0.00 respectively [4]

Currency Market Overview - The Japanese yen is experiencing a significant decline, currently at 153.12 per U.S. dollar, marking a nearly 4% drop for the week, the largest since early October last year [1][10] - Concerns are rising that the Bank of Japan may not raise interest rates again this year, particularly following comments from potential future Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi [2][10] - Traders are pricing in a 45% chance of a rate hike from the Bank of Japan in December, with a full 25 basis point hike expected in March [5][10] Euro and Political Turmoil in France - The euro is trading at $1.15635, close to two-month lows, and is on track for a 1.5% weekly drop, the sharpest decline in 11 months due to political instability in France [6][10] - French President Emmanuel Macron is seeking his sixth prime minister in under two years, complicating efforts to pass a budget amid a significant deficit [6][7][10] - The political paralysis in France has led to increased volatility in FX markets as traders adjust their positions based on central bank expectations and political risks [7][10] U.S. Dollar Performance - The U.S. dollar index is at 99.4, near a two-month high, and is on course for a 1.7% gain, the largest increase in a year [7][10] - Market sentiment is mixed regarding the dollar's ability to surpass the 100 level in the index, with skepticism about sustained upward movement [8][10] - Traders are anticipating a 95% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October, with the likelihood of an additional cut in December decreasing to 80% [8][10] Other Currencies - The Australian dollar is slightly up at $0.6563, while the British pound is at $1.33044, close to its two-month low [8][10] - The New Zealand dollar is at $0.57475, near a six-month low after a 50 basis point rate cut by its central bank, indicating concerns about the economy [9][10]

Core Insights - The 2025 Triennial Central Bank Survey indicates a significant increase in trading activity in FX and OTC interest rate derivatives markets, with FX trading reaching $9.6 trillion per day, up 28% from 2022, and OTC interest rate derivatives increasing 59% to $7.9 trillion daily [1][2]. FX Market Overview - The US dollar remains the most-traded currency, involved in 89% of all FX trades, followed by the euro at 28.9% and the Japanese yen at 16.8%. The share of sterling decreased to 10.2% [3]. - FX swaps are the most traded instrument, with average daily turnover rising to $4 trillion, a 5% increase from April 2022. FX spot trading increased by 42%, while outright forwards rose by 60%, with their shares in global turnover reaching 31% and 19% respectively [3]. OTC Interest Rate Derivatives - Average daily turnover of euro-denominated contracts nearly doubled to $3.0 trillion, accounting for 38% of the global total, while US dollar contracts increased by 7% to $2.4 trillion, leading to a decline in the international share of US dollar contracts to 31% [4]. - In contrast, the market for exchange-traded derivatives shows US dollar contracts holding 65% of global turnover, with significant increases in turnover for sterling and Japanese yen derivatives, surging by 179% and 684% respectively [5]. Trading Centers - FX trading remains concentrated in major financial centers, with the UK, US, Singapore, and Hong Kong SAR accounting for 75% of overall foreign exchange trading [5]. - The UK is the most important FX trading location, maintaining a 38% share of total turnover, while for interest rate derivatives, the UK and US together hold 73% of the market [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown is likely to weaken the dollar further, as highlighted by top forex forecasting institutions [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Data Impact - The political deadlock in Washington has delayed the release of key economic data, including weekly jobless claims and the monthly non-farm payroll report [1][3]. - In the absence of economic data, the statements from monetary policymakers will become crucial for traders assessing the Federal Reserve's interest rate path [3][4]. Group 2: Predictions and Trends - The dollar index has declined nearly 10% this year, and further depreciation is expected [1]. - Prestige Economics' Jason Schenker predicts that the euro-to-dollar exchange rate will rise from 1.17 to 1.19 by year-end, while the dollar-to-yen rate will drop from 147 to 145 [4]. - Once the government shutdown is resolved, there is potential for a dollar rebound, but the overall trend suggests continued weakness into next year [4]. Group 3: Global Currency Reserves - The share of the dollar in global central bank foreign exchange reserves has fallen to its lowest level since 1995, with the IMF reporting a drop to 56.3% during the April to June period [4]. - This represents a decline of nearly 1.5 percentage points from the first quarter, marking a 30-year low [4].

Group 1 - South Korea's president announced plans to open the currency market for around-the-clock trading to enhance foreign investor access and boost the domestic stock market [1][2] - The government aims to address the lack of an offshore won market, which has contributed to South Korea's classification as an emerging market by MSCI [2] - The onshore currency market is gradually being opened to foreigners, with new trading hours extending from 9 a.m. local time to 2 a.m. the next day [3][4] Group 2 - The president's comments come amid stalled U.S. trade talks regarding a $350 billion investment package, raising concerns about potential foreign exchange crises [5][6] - The won has weakened significantly, reaching its lowest level since mid-May at 1,414.0 per dollar, indicating market caution regarding intervention [6][7]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of conducting thorough due diligence before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and trading activities [1] Group 1 - The content includes general news and personal analysis intended for educational and research purposes [1] - It highlights that the information provided may not be real-time or accurate, and prices may be sourced from market makers rather than exchanges [1] - The article warns that trading decisions should be made at the individual's full responsibility, and reliance on the information provided is discouraged [1] Group 2 - The website discusses complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1] - It encourages individuals to perform their own research and understand the risks involved before investing in any financial instruments [1] - The content does not constitute any recommendation or advice for taking specific actions, including investments or purchases [1]

Economic Data and Market Trends - The upcoming release of key economic data includes the US GDP for Q2, initial jobless claims, and durable goods orders [1][5] - The dollar index (DXY) has maintained its near two-week high at 97.80, indicating a strong dollar ahead of the US economic data release [4] - Initial jobless claims are expected to rise from 231,000 to 235,000, following a significant increase to 264,000, the highest in four years [4] - Durable goods orders are projected to decline by 0.5% in August, following a 2.8% decrease in July [4] UK Economic Outlook - The Bank of England (BoE) is under scrutiny regarding potential interest rate cuts for the remainder of the year, with recent comments suggesting a cautious approach [6] - BoE's Megan Greene indicated that inflation risks have shifted upwards, and the central bank expects economic growth to rebound without significant labor market risks [6] - The BoE maintained interest rates at 4% after a 25 basis point cut in August, reflecting a "gradual and cautious" monetary easing policy [6] Currency Performance - The GBP/USD exchange rate is trading cautiously around 1.3450, influenced by a stronger dollar ahead of US economic data [3][9] - The recent trend for GBP/USD remains bearish, with the 20-day EMA acting as a key resistance level at 1.3514 [9] - Key support for GBP/USD is identified at the August 1 low of 1.3140, while resistance is noted near the July 1 high of 1.3800 [11]

Core Viewpoint - The Indian rupee closed at 88.69 against the U.S. dollar, nearing its all-time low, with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) likely intervening to support the currency amid increasing dollar strength and concerns over U.S. tariffs and visa fee hikes [1][7]. Currency Market Dynamics - The RBI's intervention was noted across various segments, including non-deliverable forwards (NDF), currency futures, and the OTC spot market, which helped to stabilize the rupee despite ongoing pressures [2][7]. - A trader indicated that the RBI's presence led to muted price action, although the rupee's trajectory appears to lean towards further weakening [2][7]. Central Bank Strategy - The RBI has increased its activity in the offshore NDF market to support the rupee, allowing for a gradual weakening while selectively intervening to manage volatility rather than maintaining a fixed exchange rate [5][7]. - Abhishek Goenka from IFA Global noted that the RBI's approach is to smooth out volatility rather than defend a specific level for the rupee [5]. Economic Influences - Dollar demand related to gold imports and concerns over the H-1B visa fee hike have contributed to the pressure on the rupee [6][7]. - The dollar gained 0.3% against a basket of peers, while India's benchmark 10-year bond yield increased to 6.486% [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) has effectively managed foreign exchange cases and maintained foreign exchange reserves above $3 trillion, contributing to economic stability and supporting the new development pattern in China [1][3]. Group 1: Foreign Exchange Management and Economic Stability - Since the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan, over 6,100 foreign exchange cases have been cracked down on, significantly combating illegal activities such as underground banks [1]. - The international balance of payments has remained stable, with the current account surplus to GDP ratio maintained within a reasonable range, reflecting resilience in foreign trade [1]. - By the end of July, foreign institutions and individuals held over 10 trillion yuan in domestic stocks, bonds, and deposits, indicating active cross-border investment [1]. Group 2: Improvement in Foreign Exchange Services - The foreign exchange service environment has been optimized, with the number of enterprises able to handle transactions based on instructions increasing more than fivefold since the end of 2020 [2]. - Administrative licensing for trade foreign exchange receipts has been eliminated, leading to a reduction of over 70% in the number of administrative licenses issued by SAFE [2]. - A unified policy framework for capital pools has benefited over 1,000 multinational groups and 19,000 domestic and foreign member enterprises [2]. Group 3: Regulatory and Risk Management Enhancements - The regulatory capacity and risk prevention abilities in the context of an open environment have been continuously strengthened, with a dual management framework of macro-prudential and micro-regulation established [2]. - The foreign exchange market has shown improved functionality and resilience, successfully withstanding multiple rounds of external shocks [2]. Group 4: Foreign Exchange Reserves - China's foreign exchange reserves have remained stable above $3 trillion, consistently exceeding $3.2 trillion in recent years, serving as a crucial stabilizer for the national economy [3].

Economic Outlook - The U.S. dollar is under pressure due to policy uncertainty, a growing deficit, and weakening economic growth, which may extend its downtrend observed in 2025 [3][9] - Analysts predict that the de-dollarization trend will persist, potentially benefiting major G10 currency pairs like EUR/USD, CHF/USD, and CAD/USD [4] Trade Agreements - A recent trade deal between the U.S. and EU reduced tariffs from 30% to 15%, resulting in a 1.2% gain for the dollar on the announcement day, although it remains down approximately 13% for the year [5] - Despite the trade agreements, experts believe the dollar's recovery will be limited until more significant risks are addressed, such as the budget deficit and debt crisis [6] Currency Performance - The British pound's gains against the dollar are attributed more to the dollar's weakness than confidence in the UK economy, with expectations of flat trading for the pound in the coming year [10] - The Canadian dollar may strengthen if favorable tariff agreements are reached, particularly as oil prices rise [10] - The Swiss franc could benefit from its safe-haven status, while the Japanese yen faces challenges due to fiscal issues and low growth [10] Market Dynamics - The CME Group reported a 19% increase in unique FX futures and options users year-over-year, with open interest reaching a record 3.78 million contracts, valued at approximately $358 billion [7] - The FX market faces fragmentation challenges, making it difficult for investors to access reliable pricing and liquidity [8] Renminbi's Growing Influence - The renminbi is gaining traction as a global reserve currency, with its share of global SWIFT payments increasing to 3.5% in April 2025, up from 2% in 2023 [15] - Institutions are increasingly using the renminbi for cross-border trade and investment, indicating a shift in preference, especially in emerging markets [16] U.S. Economic Resilience - Despite challenges, some analysts remain optimistic about the dollar, citing steady U.S. economic growth and a strong AI sector as factors that could support the dollar's value [19] - The U.S. maintains a favorable business environment and higher benchmark rates compared to many countries, contributing to its attractiveness for investment [20]