Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On November 24, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated at a low level. The current market trading warmed up, and the spot premium expanded. Considering the current strong supply and demand, the repeated news of the resumption of production of Jiangnan lithium mines, the record - high weekly production of lithium carbonate, the strong wait - and - see sentiment of downstream, the warming up of the spot market trading, the weakening of power demand, and the exchange's move to cool down the market, it is expected that lithium prices will fluctuate weakly. Production enterprises can conduct sell - hedging at high levels, and speculators can go short on rallies [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Data - On November 24, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures were 90200 yuan/ton, 90480 yuan/ton, 90780 yuan/ton, and 90780 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 760 yuan/ton, 540 yuan/ton, and 380 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 454612 hands (-683212), and the open interest was 365078 hands (-46249) [1] Spot Market Data - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% domestic) was 92150 yuan/ton (-150), and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% domestic) was 89750 yuan/ton (-150). The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1071 US dollars/ton (-18), and the average prices of different types of lithium mica and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone also decreased to varying degrees [1] Inventory Data - The registered warehouse receipts were 26510 tons (-338). The social inventory decreased. The inventories of smelters and downstream decreased, while other inventories increased. The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 2052 tons compared to the previous week [1] Supply and Demand Data - Supply side: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production of lithium carbonate from various raw materials increased. Demand side: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. In November, the production schedule of lithium cobalt oxide increased, and that of lithium manganate decreased. Last week, the production of power batteries decreased. In October, the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down, the 3C shipments weakened, and the production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased in November [1] Industry News - Shengxin Lithium Energy plans to sign a "2026 - 2030 Cooperation Framework Agreement" with Huayou Holding Group on lithium salt product business cooperation. Huayou Holding Group is expected to purchase 221400 tons of lithium salt products from the company between 2026 and 2030 [1]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs acknowledges a significant shift in the lithium market due to the explosive growth in energy storage system (ESS) demand, leading to a tighter short-term supply-demand balance, while the medium-term oversupply scenario remains unchanged [1][2]. Group 1: Short-term Market Dynamics - The price of lithium carbonate in China surged from $9,200 per ton in mid-September to over $11,000 per ton, prompting Goldman Sachs to revise its 2026 price forecast and delay the anticipated price correction to the second half of 2026 [1][2]. - The demand model for ESS has been significantly adjusted, with forecasts for ESS consumption in 2025 and 2026 raised to 589 GWh and 736 GWh, respectively, nearly doubling previous estimates [2]. Group 2: Long-term Supply Outlook - Despite the optimistic short-term outlook, Goldman Sachs maintains a bearish medium-term view, predicting a return to oversupply by 2027, with supply exceeding demand by 18% unless producers cut back on capacity expansion plans [1][3]. - The report anticipates that lithium prices will decline from $11,000 per ton in the first half of 2026 to $9,500 per ton in the second half, driven by increased supply from lithium spodumene and the resumption of lithium mica production [3]. Group 3: Price Projections - Goldman Sachs projects an average price of $10,250 per ton for 2026, which remains below CME futures prices, indicating a potential over-optimism in the current market [3]. - For 2027-2028, prices are expected to remain below the estimated incentive price range of $10,200 to $11,000 per ton, necessitating supply cuts to prevent excessive inventory accumulation [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Options: Consider partial profit - taking on deeply out - of - the - money short put options [5]. - Hedging: Lithium salt producers should moderately increase the proportion of selling hedging, and downstream enterprises can buy hedging in a medium - proportion according to orders to lock in procurement costs [5]. - Basis: Hold a small - position long spot - short futures positive arbitrage portfolio (entering delivery) and manage risks well [5]. - Calendar spread: Participate in a small - position short 03 - long 05 reverse arbitrage portfolio [5]. - Unilateral strategy: As the exchange takes measures to cool down, long - position funds may gradually take profits, potentially leading to a short - term price correction. Short - position entry should be in a light position with profit - taking settings [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply Side - In Yichun, the probability of production suspension in operating mines is low. The 8 lithium - related mines in Yichun have all submitted mineral type change reserve verification reports. The Jiaxiaowo Mine is expected to have a low probability of resuming production this year, though there are still reports indicating a possible December restart [6][14][15]. - The prices of lithium raw materials have increased. As of November 20, the price of Australian lithium spodumene concentrate increased by 195 to 1245 US dollars/ton week - on - week, and the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) increased by 420 to 2700 yuan/ton [15]. - The production of lithium carbonate from various raw materials has increased. In the week of November 20, the production of lithium carbonate was 22,130 tons, a week - on - week increase of 585 tons. In October 2025, the monthly total production of domestic lithium carbonate was 92,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6% and a year - on - year increase of 55%. It is expected that the output in November will remain at the same level as in October [21][22]. - Import data shows that in October 2025, Chile exported 25,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a month - on - month increase of 56%. China imported about 23,900 tons of lithium carbonate, a month - on - month increase of 22% [27]. Demand Side - The new energy vehicle industry is in the peak production and sales season. In October 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 21.1% and 20%. From January to October, the cumulative production and sales were 13.015 million and 12.943 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 33.1% and 32.7%. In October, new energy vehicle exports were 256,000, a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of 100% [33]. - The energy storage demand remains strong. The supply of energy storage cells is growing steadily, and the demand from diversified investment entities for independent energy storage power stations is increasing. Policies in China and other countries are also promoting the development of the energy storage industry [36]. - The lithium battery production in November continues to be prosperous. In November 2025, the planned production of power + energy storage + consumer - type batteries in the Chinese market was 209 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 12.4% and a year - on - year increase of 64.6% [47]. - The production of cathode materials is expected to increase. In October, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 394,350 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.5% and a year - on - year increase of 51%. It is expected that the planned production in November will increase by 8% to 425,898 tons. The production of ternary materials in October was 84,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.6% and a year - on - year increase of 43%. The market demand in November is expected to continue to improve [49]. Inventory Side - Both factory inventories and warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate are decreasing. As of November 20, the lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 2052 tons to 118,400 tons week - on - week. The warehouse receipt volume was 26,916 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 254 tons [53]. Basis Analysis - There are opportunities for spot - futures positive arbitrage. The holding cost for 1 month is about 2663 yuan/ton, and for 2 months is about 3317 yuan/ton. Hold the long spot - short futures positive arbitrage portfolio and manage risks well [55]. Spread Analysis - Consider participating in the reverse arbitrage opportunity of the 03 - 05 contracts. The 11 - 12 contracts showed a reverse arbitrage trend approaching the November delivery month. Considering the off - season demand in the first quarter of next year, one can moderately participate in the reverse arbitrage of the 03 - 05 contracts. However, the arbitrage trading space between contracts is limited [59]. Overseas Mines - Some mines have production and cost changes. For example, the Greenbushes Mine's CGP3 project is planned to start commissioning at the end of 2025, and the Mt Pilgangoora Mine's unit operating cost has decreased [60]. - There are many new/expansion projects in 2026, with a total lithium carbonate equivalent of 34.99 tons, including the CGP3 expansion of Greenbushes, the expansion of Goulamina in Mali under Ganfeng Lithium, etc. [61].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - As of November 14, 2025, the registered warehouse receipt volume was 27,170 tons. The total number of warehouse receipts participating in the delivery of the LC2511 contract was 13,775 tons, a 27% increase compared to the LC2510 delivery volume. Among them, the rolling delivery warehouse receipt volume was 11,018 tons, accounting for 80% [2][6]. - [Basis] Benefiting from the amplified price fluctuations of lithium carbonate, there were successive opportunities for cash - buying and November - selling transactions since July 2025. After the strong rally of lithium carbonate futures prices, the weakening of the spot - futures basis provided trading space for spot - futures positive arbitrage, but risk management was necessary. [Spread] The spread between the 11 - 12 contracts showed a reverse arbitrage trend approaching November, which still followed the logic of the widening spread between contracts in the cancellation month. Considering the off - season demand in the first quarter of next year, one could moderately participate in the reverse arbitrage opportunities of the 03 - 05 contracts. The spread fluctuations between non - cancellation month contracts were relatively small, with limited arbitrage trading space [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Contract Delivery Information - As of November 14, 2025, the registered warehouse receipt volume was 27,170 tons. The LC2511 contract had a total delivery warehouse receipt volume of 13,775 tons, a 27% increase from LC2510. Delivery matching was mainly concentrated on the first day of the delivery month. The rolling delivery warehouse receipt volume was 11,018 tons (80%), one - time centralized delivery was 473 tons (3%), and the volume of delivery against cash was 2,284 tons [6]. - The report also lists the delivery volumes of different buyer and seller members, such as Guotai Junan Futures with a delivery volume of 1,680 tons on the buyer side and 650 tons on the seller side [7]. 3.2 Futures Warehouse Receipt Distribution - The report shows the warehouse receipt distribution in different regions and warehouses, such as the distribution in Jiangsu, Shanghai, Jiangxi, and Sichuan. As of November 18, the warehouse receipt volume decreased by 15,800 tons compared to the first trading day after the National Day holiday [10][15]. - A table lists the minimum guaranteed storage capacity, warehouse receipts, and other information of various warehouses and factories. For example, the minimum guaranteed storage capacity of Cosco Shipping Zhenjiang is 5,000 tons, with 1,696 warehouse receipts [13]. 3.3 Basis and Inter - period Opportunity Review - When there was one month left until the delivery of the 11 - contract, the holding cost of lithium carbonate was about 1,323 yuan/ton (the futures capital cost could be saved after the warehouse receipt offset the margin). Since July 2025, there were opportunities for cash - buying and futures - selling transactions. The spread between the 11 - 12 contracts showed a reverse arbitrage trend approaching November, following the logic of the widening spread between contracts in the cancellation month [19][21][22]. 3.4 Later Evaluation - With the storage days calculated from the first trading day of the delivery month, the holding cost of cash - buying and selling the 2601 contract was about 2,320 yuan/ton. The current spot - futures basis was around - 6,120 yuan/ton, and one could moderately participate in spot - futures positive arbitrage (with risk management). - The 11 - 12 contracts showed a reverse arbitrage trend approaching the November delivery month. Considering the off - season demand in the first quarter of next year, one could moderately participate in the reverse arbitrage opportunities of the 03 - 05 contracts. The futures market was strong under the expectation of high - demand prosperity, but the spread fluctuations between contracts were relatively small, with limited arbitrage trading space [24][26].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing a pullback, viewed as a buying opportunity, with a bullish outlook on lithium carbonate and energy metals for the year ahead [1][3][4] - Key targets for investment include aluminum, lithium, and cobalt, with copper and gold also entering a favorable period for investment [1][4] Lithium Market Insights - Lithium carbonate prices are driven by secondary growth in demand, with a long-term bullish outlook for price reversal despite short-term challenges [1][5] - Current price levels are expected to struggle to break above 100,000, with a potential dip to around 80,000 in Q1 2026 seen as a buying opportunity [1][7] - By 2026, a significant price reversal is anticipated, with prices potentially exceeding 100,000 and reaching around 150,000 by 2027 [1][7] Company-Specific Developments - **Dazhong Mining**: Expected to lower costs to 40,000-50,000 per ton through by-products and large-scale production, with a projected market cap of over 500 billion by 2026-2027 [1][9] - **Guocheng Mining**: Similar to Dazhong, with a potential lithium carbonate output of 120,000 tons and a future market cap of around 600 billion [1][10] - **Shengxin Lithium Energy**: Currently has over 40,000 tons of lithium carbonate production, with plans to expand to 75,000 tons, presenting a high value proposition with a current market cap of around 30 billion [1][11] - **Ganfeng Lithium**: Valued at 1,200 billion, with a reasonable valuation of 2,000 billion due to strong growth potential and solid-state battery business [1][13] - **Tianqi Lithium**: Holds valuable resources with a conservative valuation of 1,500 billion [1][13] - **Salt Lake Co.**: Currently valued at 1,300 billion, with low-cost production capabilities expected to enhance profitability significantly [1][13] Market Dynamics - Recent trading restrictions on lithium contracts have led to market declines, influenced by corporate hedging activities [1][6] - The overall inventory situation is expected to remain stable, with production levels balancing out current stock [1][6] Investment Recommendations - Focus on emerging companies like Dazhong Mining and Guocheng Mining, which show strong competitive advantages and growth potential [1][8] - Established companies like Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium are also recommended due to their solid market positions and growth trajectories [1][13] Additional Insights - The overall sentiment in the non-ferrous metals sector remains optimistic, with significant investment opportunities identified despite short-term market fluctuations [1][4]

Summary of Conference Call on Lithium Sector Industry Overview - The lithium sector is currently experiencing volatility due to changes in demand expectations, with a projected demand growth of 30% as stated by Jiang Feng, the chairman of a leading company in the sector [1][2] - Supply-side increments are expected to reach 250,000 tons by 2026, which is influencing market expectations for lithium prices to rise to 150,000 yuan [1][2] Key Points and Arguments - **Price Dynamics**: The lithium price has recently surged past 100,000 yuan, driven by short-term supply constraints due to increased production costs from CATL's (宁德时代) requirement to pay 177 million yuan for mining rights [1][2] - **Market Sentiment**: Despite the price increase, the spot market has not seen a corresponding rise in transaction volumes, particularly when prices exceed 90,000 yuan, as downstream companies are maintaining low inventory levels [3] - **Inventory Trends**: Recent data indicates a slowdown in inventory depletion, with weekly reductions dropping from 3,400 tons to just over 2,000 tons, as some companies are utilizing finished lithium iron phosphate inventory to reduce demand for lithium carbonate [3] Future Price Outlook - **Short-term Expectations**: Prices are expected to remain strong with fluctuations, particularly as CATL is anticipated to resume production around mid-December, adding approximately 5,000 tons monthly, which may not significantly impact the overall supply-demand balance [4] - **Long-term Projections**: The equilibrium price for lithium is expected to be above 100,000 yuan next year, as high-cost production needs this price level to remain viable [4] Impact of Energy Storage Demand - **Driving Factor**: Energy storage demand is identified as the primary driver for the recent rise in lithium stocks, with expectations that companies will operate at near full capacity in the first half of next year [5][6] - **Policy Influence**: The potential introduction of national energy storage policies could further stimulate demand, leading to unexpected growth if the policies are favorable [5][6] Market Reactions to CATL's Production Resumption - **Market Volatility**: The announcement of CATL's production resumption has caused fluctuations in market sentiment, but it is considered a non-issue for long-term supply-demand balance as it has already been factored into forecasts [7] - **Future Shortages**: There is an anticipated shortfall in the next 2-3 years due to favorable energy storage demand, potentially occurring as early as next year or in 2027 [7] Investment Recommendations - **Key Companies to Watch**: Investors are advised to focus on leading companies such as Dazhong Mining, Guocheng Mining, Shengxin Lithium Energy, and Tianhua New Energy, which show significant growth potential and cost advantages [8] - **Traditional Leaders**: Companies like Zhongmin Resources, Ganfeng Lithium, and Tianqi Lithium are also worth monitoring, but investors should wait for clear signals of improving demand to enhance their valuation prospects [8]

11月24日晚间，威领股份（证券代码：002667）突发公告称，因筹划控制权变更事项，股票将紧急停牌。 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 停复牌类型 | 停牌起始日 | 停牌 | 停牌终止日 | 复牌日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 期间 | | | | 002667 | 威领股份 | Ａ 股 停牌 | 2025/11/25 | 全天 | 2025/11/26 | 2025/11/27 | 威领股份表示，公司控股股东上海领亿新材料有限公司（以下简称上海领亿）、实际控制人黄达正在筹划重大事项，该事项可能导致公司控制权发生变 更。公司股票自11月25日起停牌，预计不超过两个交易日。 值得注意的是，威领股份股价在11月24日高开高走，并在午后突然直线拉升涨停，总市值报44.04亿元。 这意味着，本次股份转让后，上海领亿对威领股份的持股比例将降至5%以下。 据悉，在筹划本次控制权转让之前，上海领亿因被动稀释、主动减持、协议转让、被动减持等原因合计持股比例已大幅下降。 特别是在2022年11月至2024年8月14日期间，上海领亿合计持股比例 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in lithium carbonate prices, which peaked above 100,000 yuan/ton before experiencing significant declines, has impacted related A-share market stocks, leading to a "roller coaster" effect in their performance [1][2]. Group 1: Price Fluctuations - Lithium carbonate futures prices have seen dramatic fluctuations, with the main contract dropping 2.88% on November 24 and a previous drop of 9% on November 19 after reaching over 100,000 yuan/ton [2]. - The lithium mining concept index in the A-share market fell by 4.93% on November 24, marking a second consecutive day of decline, with several stocks hitting the daily limit down [2]. Group 2: Company Responses - Salt Lake Co. reported stable operations in its 40,000-ton lithium salt project, achieving a daily output of 60-70 tons with a purity of over 99.7%, and is on track to exceed its annual production target of 3,000 tons [3]. - Xinhong Technology noted that rising lithium carbonate prices have increased cost pressures in the lithium battery supply chain, while sodium-ion batteries are gaining attention due to their cost advantages and safety features [3]. - Zhejiang Zhongtuo emphasized the positive impact of rising lithium carbonate prices on its performance, focusing on stable profitability through supply chain management and hedging strategies [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Factors influencing lithium carbonate prices include improved fundamentals, seasonal demand strength, and recent adjustments in trading fees and position limits by exchanges, which have cooled market sentiment [4]. - As of November 20, weekly lithium carbonate production was approximately 22,100 tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase, while inventory levels decreased by about 2,052 tons [4]. - The market is expected to remain tight in supply and demand through December, with potential pressure on prices if the Jiangxiawo lithium mine resumes production [5]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - From a long-term perspective, global lithium resource projects are expected to continue rapid release cycles until 2026, with energy storage potentially becoming a significant growth driver alongside electric vehicles, which may narrow the expected oversupply of lithium resources [5].

Group 1 - The recent volatility in lithium carbonate prices has significantly impacted the A-share market, with related concept stocks experiencing dramatic fluctuations [2][4] - On November 24, the main contract for lithium carbonate futures fell by 2.88%, marking the second consecutive day of decline, following a 9% drop the previous Friday [2] - The Wenke Lithium Mining Concept Index dropped by 4.93% on November 24, with several stocks hitting the daily limit down, reflecting the overall bearish sentiment in the market [2] Group 2 - Experts suggest that the global lithium resource projects will continue to release at a high rate until 2026, with energy storage expected to become the second growth curve for lithium carbonate, potentially stabilizing prices [1][6] - Salt Lake Co. reported stable operations in its 40,000-ton lithium salt project, achieving a daily output of 60 to 70 tons with a purity of over 99.7%, indicating strong production capabilities [2] - The current supply-demand dynamics remain tight, with weekly lithium carbonate production reaching approximately 22,100 tons as of November 20, reflecting a month-on-month increase [5]

船舶制造高开高走大涨7.3%，其中江龙船艇20CM涨停，天海防务、中船防务等股涨停或涨幅在10%上 方；商业航天概念持续拉升，包括航天发展等在内的超10股涨停。AI应用概念股快速走强，包括久其 软件、省广集团等多股涨停。 今天大盘虽然出现了止跌企稳的迹象，甚至上涨个股超过了4200只，但谨慎情绪还是非常明显，特别是 作为定海神针的银行持续回落，带动成交额大幅缩减。总体而言，今天的收红只能作为反弹来看，接下 来延续休整的概率较大。 高开低走后探底回升，随后全天震荡上行，截至收盘沪指上涨0.05%，深成指上涨0.37%，创业板指上 涨0.31%。两市合计超4200只个股上涨，合计成交额1.73万亿。 锂矿概念低开低走后探底回升，盘中一度大跌5%，截至收盘下跌3.55%。包括大为股份、大中矿业、国 城矿业等在内的多股跌停；能源金属紧随其后，融捷股份、盛新锂能等股跌停；算力硬件概念走弱，权 重工业富联触及跌停。 ...