新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-12 交易风险增加，碳酸锂盘面封板 市场分析 2025-08-11，碳酸锂主力合约2511开于81000元/吨，收于81000元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化8.00%。当日成 交量为38071手，持仓量为317676手，前一交易日持仓量320706手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-6500元/吨（电 碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单19389手，较上个交易日变化560手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价73000-76000元/吨，较前一交易日变化2600元/吨，工业级碳酸锂 报价71600-73000元/吨，较前一交易日变化2500元/吨。6%锂精矿价格875美元/吨，较前一日变化90美元/吨。据SMM 数据，因江西枧下窝在矿证8月9日到期后已暂停了开采作业，对于锂云母及锂云母端碳酸锂产出造成一定影响。 市场情绪发酵下，今日碳酸锂期货开盘即涨停。但同时，锂辉石端碳酸锂增量可进行一定补充，且枧下窝相关锂 盐厂可通过矿石库存或零单采购维持少量产出，现货市场暂不会出现大幅紧缺现象。从成交情况来看，上下游双 方保持谨慎观望态度，市场成交较少。 策略 受锂矿 ...

Key Points - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the need to "break the internal competition" as highlighted by the General Secretary in July 2025, with a structured approach focusing on three dimensions: industry, enterprise, and government [4][6] - The report identifies the formation of effective price alliances as a significant international strategy to combat internal competition, characterized by public agreements on market share distribution, unified pricing, and supply limitations [4][12] - Notable examples of successful price alliances include OPEC and the iron ore price alliance, which provide valuable lessons for domestic policy [4][44] Group 1: Price Alliances - Price alliances are defined by their key features: public agreements for market share distribution, unified pricing, and supply restrictions [12] - The report discusses the historical context and evolution of OPEC, highlighting its ability to maintain price stability through coordinated production adjustments among member countries [22][38] - The iron ore price alliance is presented as a model for collective negotiation, demonstrating the importance of industry collaboration to enhance bargaining power [4][40] Group 2: International Examples - Countries like Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile are working towards establishing a "Lithium Triangle OPEC" to coordinate lithium production and pricing [44] - Indonesia has proposed a nickel group similar to OPEC, aiming to leverage its significant nickel reserves for better market positioning [46] - The report notes that Russia and Qatar have expressed interest in forming a natural gas output organization akin to OPEC, indicating a trend towards resource-based alliances [49] Group 3: Domestic Implications - The report suggests that China should establish industry alliances for key resources and manufacturing sectors, focusing on "quota + price limits" to secure pricing power and prevent market disruption [4][57] - It emphasizes the need for collective bargaining in industries like photovoltaics and new energy, advocating for a unified national approach to enhance negotiation strength [4][58] - The report outlines a strategic framework for managing key strategic resources, including refined export quotas and minimum price regulations to protect national interests [57]

Core Viewpoint - The market's attitude towards companies with significant profit growth has shifted, with recent high-growth companies experiencing stock price declines despite strong earnings forecasts [1][2]. Group 1: Earnings Forecasts and Market Reactions - Since late June, companies have been releasing semi-annual earnings forecasts, which have become crucial for short-term stock price movements [1]. - Initially, companies with profit growth exceeding 100% saw positive market reactions, but this trend has reversed, with some companies facing sharp declines despite high growth forecasts [1][2]. - A specific lithium mining company projected a net profit increase of over 40 times, yet its stock plummeted after the announcement, illustrating the disconnect between earnings growth and stock performance [1][2]. Group 2: Importance of Quarterly Performance - Analysts suggest that the second quarter's performance, rather than just the half-year results, is critical in determining stock price movements [2]. - Historical data indicates that companies with stable second-quarter earnings growth relative to the first quarter tend to perform poorly in the stock market during the earnings season [2]. Group 3: Identifying "Exceeding Expectations" - The concept of "exceeding expectations" is central to earnings season, but identifying such opportunities can be challenging for investors [3]. - A quantitative model known as "net profit gap" focuses on stocks that show upward price jumps following earnings announcements, indicating market approval [3]. - The "net profit gap" strategy has yielded an annualized return of 34.10% since 2010, outperforming major indices [3]. Group 4: Sector Performance Disparities - There is a consensus among institutions that significant performance disparities exist between sectors this earnings season, with high growth concentrated in lithium, chemicals, and oil sectors [6]. - The current earnings season is expected to show the most pronounced performance differentiation in five years, leading to rapid fund reallocations between sectors [6]. - The crowded trading in high-performing sectors may increase stock price volatility post-earnings announcements [6].

Market Performance - A-shares experienced a strong upward trend on the last trading day of the Year of the Tiger, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high in the current rebound, closing up 0.76% at 3264.81 points [1] - The total trading volume in the two markets was 749.1 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 62 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Northbound funds continued to buy heavily, with a net purchase of over 9 billion yuan today, marking the 13th consecutive day of accumulation, totaling 48.5 billion yuan for the week, which is the second-highest weekly net purchase on record [1] Sector Performance - Cyclical sectors such as non-ferrous metals, coal, steel, oil, and electricity saw collective gains, with notable performances in rare earth and gold concepts, including stocks like China Rare Earth and Yintai Gold hitting the daily limit [2] - New energy sectors, including lithium mining, lithium batteries, energy storage, wind power, and photovoltaics, also performed strongly, with Rongjie shares rising over 8% and Sunshine Power increasing over 7%, bringing its latest market value to 190.9 billion yuan [2] - The telecommunications sector saw all three major operators rise significantly, with China Telecom hitting the daily limit and China Unicom increasing by about 7% [2] Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong stock market saw a strong rally, with the Hang Seng Index rising nearly 2% to surpass 22,000 points, closing up 1.82% at 22044.65 points, marking a six-month high [2] - The Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 2.67% to 4568.79 points, with individual stocks like New Oriental Online rising over 10% to set a new historical high [2]

四川省"天价锂矿"重现江湖。8月13日凌晨1点03分41秒，四川省马尔康市加达锂矿勘查权的争夺战宣告 结束，历经三天三夜的"抢矿大战"，最高报价42.06亿元，起始价仅319万元，升值率超1317倍。 而就在此前的8月11日上午，四川省金川县李家沟北锂矿勘查权竞拍才刚刚结束，起始价57万元，最高 报价10.1亿元，升值率超1771倍，竞得者为四川能投资本控股有限责任公司。 这轮"抢矿热潮"为何会出现？它的出现又是否意味着碳酸锂下跌行情将结束？ 多家巨头出手抢矿 8月13日凌晨，四川省马尔康市加达锂矿勘查的竞拍结束，最高报价为42.06亿元，当前最高竞价人为 1213号。目前四川省公共资源交易信息网尚未披露1213号的真实身份，不过在这场竞拍中，已经浮现一 些上市公司的身影。 8月9日晚，天华新能公告称，公司董事会同意子公司宜宾市天宜锂业科创有限公司（以下简称"天宜锂 业"）参与四川省马尔康市加达锂矿勘查探矿权竞拍。 据天眼查数据，7月11日，宁德时代间接全资持股的马尔康时代矿业有限公司在马尔康成立，注册资本 高达3亿元。有市场观点认为，该公司或许也是四川省马尔康市加达锂矿勘查权的竞拍者之一。 而本轮"抢矿大战 ...

8月21日，大中矿业公告称，公司以自有资金30亿元在四川省阿坝州马尔康市设立全资子公司四川大中 赫锂业有限公司(以下简称"四川大中赫公司")，目前四川大中赫公司已完成工商注册登记手续，并已领 取马尔康市行政审批局颁发的营业执照。 大中矿业表示，公司在四川省阿坝州马尔康市扎根发展，可为公司进一步谋求四川省优质锂矿资源开发 奠定坚实基础。 42.06亿元竞得锂矿资源 8月13日凌晨，持续近四天的四川省马尔康市加达锂矿（以下简称"加达锂矿"）勘查矿权"争夺战"宣告 结束，报价次数总计达11307次，最高报价42.06亿元，起始价仅319万元。拍卖平台虽显示为神秘买 家，不过，随着一纸公告，谜底被揭晓。 新能源产业格局加速形成 大中矿业所在行业为黑色金属采选行业，主营业务为铁矿石采选、铁精粉和球团生产销售、副产品机制 砂石的加工销售。 "公司铁矿主业已经发展得非常成熟，且可以产生持续、稳定的收入。但是铁矿业务的周期性较强。为 对冲铁矿的周期波动，2022年，公司选择进军具有'白色石油'称号的锂矿行业作为新的利润增长 点。"上述大中矿业相关负责人表示。 在新能源汽车及新型储能高质量发展规划和各项政策利好驱动下，新能源汽 ...

与8月份的"天价"锂矿相比，本次拍卖的锂矿价格则明显趋于理性。独立国际策略研究员陈佳对《证券 日报》记者表示："随着未来全球在新能源电池技术的博弈持续强化，新能源产业链技术进步加速推 进，包括氢、钠等锂替代性资源在新能源产业链中更为高效地运用，半固态/固态电池技术方向突破瓶 颈加速量产，锂资源在需求侧长期供不应求的预期正在大幅松动。" "抢锂大战"未现 锂矿拍卖趋理性 有业内人士向记者表示，在竞拍过程中，企业会根据自身的经济实力、市场行情、行业走势等多方面因 素进行综合考虑，避免盲目跟风竞价。云南省两处锂矿的竞拍，宁德时代、盛新锂能等锂电行业领先企 业并未参与。 10月18日，云南省自然资源厅公示了日前云南两处锂矿探矿权的竞价出让结果。其中，云南省玉溪市安 化锂矿探矿权由云南省锂资源开发有限公司以668万元竞得，起拍价为118万元，溢价4.66倍；云南省昆 明市安宁鸣矣河雁塔村锂矿探矿权由昆明市绿色资源产业发展有限公司以305万元竞得，起拍价为35万 元，溢价7.71倍，两处锂矿都花落云南本土企业。 这与今年8月份四川省两处锂矿拍卖时激烈的争夺情况大相径庭。彼时，锂矿拍卖吸引了锂电行业众多 头部企业关注，拍卖 ...

作者 | 杨锐 编辑 | 杨锐 排版校对 | 甘惠淇 靴子落地之后，碳酸锂期货市场又迎来一波疯涨。 8月11日，受宁德时代旗下宜春时代新能源矿业拥有的宜丰县圳口里—奉新县枧下窝矿区云母矿停产的消息刺激，碳酸锂期货开盘即涨停，主力合约涨幅 为8%，报81000元/吨，市场情绪高涨。 过去一个月，围绕着江西宜春8家涉锂矿山企业需要在9月底前完成储量核实报告编制的"小作文"，一直在市场流传。而上述矿区亦在传闻之中。 公开信息显示，宁德时代最早在2021年9月与宜春市政府签署合作协议，一期投资135亿元在当地建设年产能50吉瓦时的新型锂电池生产制造基地项目，彼 时锂价刚冲破17万元/吨。2022年4月，宁德时代锁定了宜春的锂资源，以8.65亿元的价格竞得宜春奉新县枧下窝矿区陶瓷土（含锂）探矿权，有效期至 2025年8月9日。 在7月30日举办的半年报业绩解读会上，宁德时代高管表示，关于采矿权续期的问题，公司已经按照相关规定向江西宜春市自然资源局提交申请材料，目 前正在等待批复当中，"我们觉得是相对比较乐观的状况"。 不过，从8月9日开始，陆续就有消息传出，枧下窝锂矿确定停产，短期无复产计划。8月11日一早，宁德时代在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The suspension of mining operations at the Jiangxi Yichun's Xianxiawo lithium mine, owned by CATL, marks a significant turning point for China's new energy industry, indicating a shift towards high-quality development and regulatory tightening in the lithium market [1][2]. Group 1: Company Impact - CATL's Xianxiawo lithium mine, which has a lithium oxide resource of 2.6568 million tons, equivalent to approximately 6.57 million tons of lithium carbonate, is crucial for the company's lithium supply chain [1]. - The mining rights for the Xianxiawo mine, initially acquired for 865 million yuan, expired on August 9, 2025, but were not renewed, leading to the suspension of operations [1]. Group 2: Industry Regulation - The Yichun Natural Resources Bureau has mandated eight lithium mining companies, including CATL's Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., to complete resource verification reports by the end of September [2]. - The new Mineral Resources Law, effective from July 1, emphasizes protective mining practices for strategic mineral resources, indicating a shift towards stricter regulatory oversight to prevent excessive competition and promote the exit of inefficient production capacities [2].

8月10日，有投资者深夜蹲守矿区见证停产，据现场描述，8月9日晚上12点起，矿区挖掘机、推土机均准时停止作业，此前夜间施 工的轰鸣声与灯光彻底消失。当地村民表示，该矿区涉及原村民山地，此前夜间施工时震动明显。 【环球网财经综合报道】8月11日，宁德时代在互动平台确认，公司宜春枧下窝矿区因采矿许可证于8月9日到期，已暂停开采作 业，目前正按规定办理采矿证延续申请，待批复后将恢复生产，并称该事项对整体经营影响不大。根据有关法律要求，宁德时代正 在按照相关规定办理采矿证延续申请。 市场反应迅速显现。8月11日早盘，碳酸锂期货主力合约涨停，报81000元/吨，创近三个月新高；A股锂矿概念指数上涨3.98%，德 方纳米涨13.08%，盛新锂能、江特电机等多股涨停。 据宁德时代方面此前披露的信息，江西宜春枧下窝矿区3300万吨含锂瓷土选矿项目分三期建设，其中一期1000万吨年选原矿产能于 2023年建成。 此次宁德时代枧下窝矿区停产，被市场视为碳酸锂行业反内卷去产能的重要信号之一 今年7月，宜春市自然资源局要求8家涉锂矿山企业9月底前完成储量核实，直指部分矿区长期以"陶瓷土矿"名义越权审批开采锂资 源的问题。业内人士指出 ...