丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨赣锋锂业（002460.SZ） [Table_Title] 锂价下行，盈利持续承压——赣锋锂业 2025Q1 业绩点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025Q1 公司实现营收 37.72 亿元，同比-25.43%，环比-24.28%；实现归母净利-3.56 亿元， 同比+18.93%，环比+75.18%；实现扣非归母净利-2.42 亿元，同比+4.72%，环比+54.28%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 王筱茜 许红远 肖百桓 周相君 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490519080004 SAC：S0490520080021 SAC：S0490522080001 SFC：BQT626 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 赣锋锂业（002460.SZ） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 锂价下行，盈利持续承压——赣锋锂业 2] 2025Q1 业绩点评 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 2025Q1 公司实现营收 37.72 亿元 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the transformation of Jujuy Province in Argentina due to the influx of Chinese investment in lithium mining, particularly through the Exar Mining Company, which is set to produce 25,000 tons of lithium carbonate in 2024, making it the highest-producing lithium project in Argentina [1][2]. Group 1: Investment and Economic Impact - Chinese investment has brought advanced technology and management knowledge to Exar Mining Company, improving production efficiency and management standards [1]. - The project has created over 2,000 jobs locally and contributed significantly to local finances through taxes and mining fees [2]. - The influx of foreign investment, including from China, has led to improvements in the urban landscape and safety in San Salvador de Jujuy, reducing the need for locals to migrate to larger cities for work [2]. Group 2: Cultural Exchange and Community Engagement - Employees from Exar Mining Company participated in cultural exchange activities in China, enhancing their understanding of Chinese culture and improving communication with Chinese colleagues [2]. - The local government has expressed gratitude towards Chinese enterprises for providing high-quality job opportunities and better infrastructure in the province [3].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the industry, predicting that the industry index will outperform the Shanghai Composite Index by 10% or more in the upcoming period [5]. Core Insights - The total lithium carbonate production for Q1 2025 reached 7,200 tons, a 15% decrease from Q4 2024's 8,500 tons, but a 60% increase compared to Q1 2024's 4,500 tons [1]. - The production guidance for 2025 remains at 30,000 to 35,000 tons, reflecting an expected increase in output during the second half of the year [1]. - The average realized price for lithium carbonate in Q1 2025 was approximately $8,085 per ton, contributing to total revenue of $58 million [2]. Summary by Sections Production and Operations - Cauchari-Olaroz's production was impacted by planned shutdowns aimed at improving recovery rates and reducing costs [1]. - The plant's capacity utilization reached over 85% following the planned shutdown in April 2025 [1]. - The cash operating cost per ton of lithium carbonate was $6,634, remaining stable compared to Q4 2024 [8]. Expansion Plans - A demonstration plant with an annual production capacity of 5,000 tons is under construction in China, with permits approved for modifications in Jujuy Province [3]. - The Pozuelos-Pastos Grandes project has a potential lithium carbonate equivalent capacity of up to 150,000 tons per year [3]. - The second phase of the Cauchari-Olaroz expansion aims to increase lithium carbonate equivalent capacity to 40,000 tons per year, utilizing existing infrastructure and new processing technologies [3]. Financial Performance - The company reported a net loss of $7.2 million for Q1 2025, an improvement from a net loss of $10.2 million in the same period last year [4]. - As of March 31, 2025, the company had $73.9 million in cash and cash equivalents, with total liabilities amounting to $242.5 million [6]. - The company secured an additional $150 million bank loan at the beginning of 2025, expected to be completed in Q2 2025, enhancing financial flexibility [6].

二 〇 二 四 年 度 碳酸锂 LC2507 合约回落，期间减仓企稳，尔后加仓下跌。2507 合约收于 60960 元/吨，周环比下跌 840 元/吨，2509 合约收于 62300 元/吨，周环比下跌 900 元/吨，现货周环比下跌 1450 元/吨为 63050 元/吨。SMM 期现基差（2505 合约）走弱 610 元/吨至 2090 元/吨，富宝贸易商升贴水报价+490 元/吨， 周环比-40 元/吨。2507-2509 合约价差-1340 元/吨，环比+60 元/吨。 供需基本面：供应出现停产预期，但仍有增量弥补 供应：锂矿价格下跌至 690 美元/吨，但是下跌速度放缓。部分矿山开始减停产，根据 BirdzEye，5 月份 Bikita 矿区排放近乎停止，预计选矿工作减产或停止；根据钢联，东鹏减产约影响每月 1500 吨 LCE。4 月，中国锂辉石进口 62.29 万吨，环比增加 16.5%。碳酸锂进口 2.83 万吨，环比上涨 56.3%。后 续辉石矿和锂盐发运来看，马里 Kodal、Goulamina 项目增量逐步增加，津巴布韦项目发运预计减少，锂 盐进口受到高库存及保底价取消影响预计减量。本周 ...

Core Viewpoint - Weiling New Energy Co., Ltd. is shifting its focus to other minerals after suffering losses in the lithium industry for over two years, recently acquiring a majority stake in Hunan Linwu Jiayu Mining Co., Ltd. for 220 million yuan to explore tin and tungsten mining opportunities [2][4][7]. Company Overview - Weiling, formerly known as Anzhong Co., has undergone significant transformation since the change of control in late 2020, focusing on lithium business during a period of rising lithium prices, which led to substantial revenue growth in 2022 [2][4]. - The company has faced continuous losses, reporting a total loss of 556 million yuan over eight consecutive quarters, with a net asset reduction to 365 million yuan by the end of 2024 [4][5]. Financial Performance - In 2022, Weiling's revenue reached 1.186 billion yuan, over five times the previous year, and net profit turned positive with a year-on-year increase of 185.9% to 82.39 million yuan [5]. - However, by 2023, revenue remained around 1.1 billion yuan, but the company began incurring losses again, averaging 278 million yuan in annual losses during the downturn of the lithium market [5][6]. Market Conditions - The lithium market has seen a significant oversupply due to rapid capacity expansion, leading to a decline in prices, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices dropping below 65,000 yuan per ton by mid-May 2025 [5][6]. - The tin market is currently experiencing a supply shortage, with prices ranging from 250,000 to 260,000 yuan per ton, influenced by mining grade, limited new capacity, and geopolitical factors [3][8]. Acquisition Details - Weiling's recent acquisition of a 74.3% stake in Jiayu Mining is seen as a strategic move to diversify its operations beyond lithium, with the potential to enhance overall performance by leveraging its experience in the lithium sector [4][7]. - Jiayu Mining holds mining rights for a variety of metals, including tin and tungsten, with a mining area of 8.1815 square kilometers and an annual extraction capacity of 300,000 tons [7][9]. Future Outlook - The acquisition is expected to help Weiling stabilize its operations and potentially improve its financial performance by tapping into the cyclical nature of different metal prices [7][9]. - The tin market is projected to experience increased supply in the coming year, which may impact Weiling's ability to benefit from its new investment [9].

| | 锂云母 | 705 | | - 电碳-工碳价差 元/吨 | 一 工业级碳酸锂-平均价 一 电池级碳酸锂-平均价 TT / H4 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (Li20:1.5%-2.0%) ( | | | | | | | 锂云母 (Li20:2.0%-2.5%) | 1280 | | | 碳酸锂注册仓单(吨) | | | 磷锂铝石 (Li20:6%-7%) | 6025 | | | | | | 磷锂铝石 (Li20:7%-8%) | 7050 | | | | | | 正极材料 | 平均价 | 涨跌 | | | | | 磷酸铁锂(动力型) | 31030 | | | | | | 三元材料811(多晶/动力型) | 145610 | -60 | | | | | 三元材料523(单晶/动力型) | 115745 | -20 | | | | | 三元材料613(单晶/动力型) | 122885 | -60 | | | | | 名称 | 现值 | 变化值 | | | | | 电碳-工碳 | 1600 | FO | | | | 价 差 | 电碳-主力合约 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 23 日 碳酸锂：非矿政策风险扰动，基本面偏弱制约上方 空间 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 shaowanyi@gtht.com 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 liuhongru@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2507合约（收盘价） | 62,140 | 1,040 | -1,980 | -2,140 | -8,320 | -15,620 | | | | 2507合约（成交量） | 427,180 | 157,006 | 197,103 | 117,896 | 378,818 | 422,215 | | | | 2507合约（持仓量） | 312,662 | -16,543 | 23,302 | 45,266 | 171,285 | 287,908 | | | 盘面 | 2509合约（收盘价） | 6 ...

南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报 2025年5月22日 戴鸿绪（投资咨询证书：Z0021819 ） 余维函 （期货从业证号：F03144703） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 期货价格区间预测 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 碳酸锂主力合约 | 压力位65000 | 25.2% | 30.0% | source： 南华研究 据Mysteel消息，某锂盐厂预计停产检修4个月，预计每月影响锂盐月产量约1500吨。 解读：市场库存依然高位，此厂停产对市场供给过剩格局影响不大。 【利多解读】 【利空解读】 碳酸锂企业风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | | 套保比例 策略等级 （满分5） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 公司产品库存偏 高，库存有减值风 | 为了防止库存减值，可以根据企业的库存情况， 做空碳酸锂期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成 本 | ...

碳酸锂产业日报 2025/5/22 | | 撰写人：王福辉 从业资格证号：F03123381 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0019878 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 62,140.00 | +1040.00↑ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -40,069.00 | -754.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | 312,662.00 | -16543.00↓ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | -1,160.00 | +20.00↑ | | | 广期所仓单（日，手/吨） | 36,393.00 | -152.00↓ | | | | 现货市场 | 电池级碳酸锂平均价（日，元/吨） | 63,050.00 | 0.00 工业级碳酸锂平均价（日，万元/吨） | 61,450.00 | 0.00 | | | Li₂CO₃主力合约基差（日，元/吨） | 910.00 | -1040.00↓ | | | | 上游情况 ...

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