021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635738 行业 纸浆日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 15 日 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635727 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员:李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业硅） 研究 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve total operating revenue of 1.893 billion and net profit attributable to shareholders of 176 million in 2024, with year-on-year changes of +1% for revenue and -3% for net profit [2][4] - In Q4 2024, the company is projected to generate operating revenue of 496.3 million, with a significant decline in net profit attributable to shareholders, down 90% year-on-year [2][4] - For Q1 2025, the company anticipates operating revenue of 456.4 million, with net profit attributable to shareholders decreasing by 47% year-on-year [2][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total sales volume of 4.56 million tons, a 6% increase year-on-year, with an average gross profit per ton of 398 RMB, a decrease of approximately 69 RMB [9] - The revenue breakdown includes: - White cardboard revenue of 1.1542 billion, with a sales volume of 2.9 million tons, and an average price of 3987 RMB/ton [9] - Cultural paper revenue of 474.1 million, with a sales volume of 980,000 tons, and an average price of 4848 RMB/ton [9] - Boxboard revenue of 163 million, with a sales volume of 530,000 tons, and an average price of 3098 RMB/ton [9] - Gypsum face paper revenue of 59.5 million, with a sales volume of 160,000 tons, and an average price of 3654 RMB/ton [9] Future Outlook - The company expects continuous growth in production and sales, with demand recovery likely to drive paper prices and profitability upward [9] - The overseas sales revenue is projected to see significant growth, with export revenue accounting for 16% of total sales, effectively hedging against domestic cyclical risks [9] - The company plans to continue developing differentiated products and implementing digital transformation to enhance market responsiveness [9]

【基本面跟踪】 表 1：基本面数据(元/吨) | 市 场 | 区 域 | 纸 种 | 2025/5/14 | 2025/5/13 | 环 比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现货市场 | 山东市场 | 70g天 阳 | 5025 | 5025 | 0 0 | | | | 70g晨鸣云镜 | 5250 | 5250 | | | | | 70g华夏太阳 | 5300 | 5300 | 0 | | | 广东市场 | 70g天 阳 | 4950 | 4950 | 0 0 | | | | 70g晨鸣云豹 | 5100 | 5100 | | | | | 70g华夏太阳 | 5150 | 5150 | 0 | | | 税 前 | 含税收入 | 5238 | 5250 | -13 | | | | 含税成本 | 5133 | 5129 | 5 | | 成本利润 | | 税前毛利 | 104 | 121 | -17 | | | 税 后 | 不含税收入 不含税成本 | 4635 4715 | 4646 4711 | -11 4 | | | | 税后毛利 | -80 | -65 | ...

纸浆早报 美元价格以及人民币价格均采用卓创数据，以13%增值税计算 | 日期 | | | 全国均价 | | | | 山东地区均价 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 针叶浆 | 阔叶浆 | 本色浆 | 化机浆 | 针叶浆 | 阔叶浆 | 本色浆 | 化机浆 | | 2025/05/07 | 6073.75 | 4810.75 | 5415.00 | 3686.25 | 6245.00 | 4775.00 | 5400.00 | 3600.00 | | 2025/05/08 | 6073.75 | 4810.75 | 5415.00 | 3686.25 | 6245.00 | 4775.00 | 5400.00 | 3600.00 | | 2025/05/09 | 6073.75 | 4810.75 | 5415.00 | 3686.25 | 6245.00 | 4775.00 | 5400.00 | 3600.00 | | 2025/05/12 | 6073.75 | 4810.75 | 5415.00 | 3686. ...

木浆成本下行，供需宽松，双胶纸价格承压 银河化工 研究员：朱四祥 期货从业证号：F03127108 投资咨询证号：Z0020124 目录 第一部分 综合分析与交易策略 第二部分 核心逻辑分析 第三部分 周度数据跟踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 【综合分析】 基本情况①价格：70g双胶纸企业含税均价为5128.6元/吨，环比降幅3.0%。② 供应端分化：部分纸机转产情况存在，且停产企业暂未恢 复正常生产，新增装置生产暂未放量。需求端疲弱：出版招标订单释放有限，零星低价压制市场预期③成本：针叶浆期货盘面止跌企稳， 但周均价环比仍下跌；阔叶浆价格持续承压下探，贸易商报价混乱。 【逻辑】 双胶纸：供应：行业盈利水平仍较低，工厂转产情况存在，市场供应趋稳。需求：秋季出版订单释放进度缓慢，社会面订单仍显不振，整 体终端消费跟进不及预期，下游印厂开工水平不高，用户原纸库存消耗缓慢，无明显大量囤库意愿。成本：国内港口库存仍处于高位，叠 加进口浆现货市场货源充裕，市场对供应过剩担忧加剧，木浆价格整体趋弱。 【策略】 胶版印刷纸预期下周偏弱调整。 GALAXY FUTURES 2 目录 综合分析与交易策略 第一部分 综合分 ...

关税缓和，轻工板块有哪些超跌机会？20250512 摘要 • 玉桐科技受益于海外产能转移和高分红策略，股价具备超跌反弹机会，尽 管前期受果链情绪影响，但实际业务受苹果订单转移影响较小，一季度实 现稳健增长，预计二季度维持双位数利润增长。 • 永艺股份等出口链企业以制造为核心优势，海外市场份额逐步扩大，一季 报表现良好但股价未充分反映业绩，安全边际较强，具备补涨潜力。 • 匠心、嘉艺家居、浙江自然等企业代表中国制造业出海方向，业绩优异但 估值未充分反映，随着关税态度缓解，有望迎来估值修复，尤其关注一季 报表现良好的江鑫与嘉艺。 • 智欧科技发展自由品牌，关税下降或调整将直接贡献利润率，利润率仍有 改善空间，值得重点关注，类似逻辑的歌尔股份也具有上涨潜力。 • 市场关注度高且业绩表现持续较好的公司存在修复机会，如薪酬管理公司 和佳颖等，其市盈率有望修复至更高水平，具备现价布局的动力和逻辑。 • 长期来看，中美关税问题可能反复，出口链企业应侧重业务向非美地区扩 展的公司，同时关注在美国市场取得成功并扩展到其他国家的企业，避免 过度依赖美国市场。 • 若中美关税缓解，内需周期品如造纸行业将间接受益，造纸需求反映国内 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Stock Exchange's main board shows strong resilience and stability in 2024, supported by a series of incremental policies, with significant growth in net profits and operational cash flow recovery [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the main board companies achieved a total operating income of 49.57 trillion yuan, maintaining stability year-on-year; net profit reached 4.35 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.9% [1]. - The annual performance trend was characterized by a decline in net profit of 1% in the first half, followed by a significant recovery with a 5% increase in the second half [2]. - Operating cash flow improved significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 15% in the fourth quarter, restoring to the previous year's level [2]. Industry Transition - Over the past decade, the leading industries on the main board have shifted from traditional sectors like finance and energy to emerging sectors such as automotive and biomedicine, with market capitalization in these sectors reaching 2 trillion yuan and 1.5 trillion yuan respectively [3]. - The proportion of emerging industry companies among the top 50 by market capitalization has increased to 50%, indicating a significant rise in both quantity and market share [3]. Emerging Industries Growth - The number of companies in emerging industries has risen to 40% over the past decade, with net profit compound growth reaching 11%, outperforming traditional industries by 5 percentage points [4]. - Emerging industries are driving the transformation of the economy towards high-quality development, fostering innovation and enhancing the value chain [4]. Corporate Governance and Efficiency - As of 2024, 946 companies on the main board have disclosed "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement" action plans, with nearly 60% of these companies achieving profitability [5]. - The overall dividend scale reached a new high in 2024, with 1,259 companies declaring cash dividends totaling 1.77 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6% [6]. Market Dynamics - The number of companies implementing share buybacks and major shareholder increases has doubled, with buyback plans disclosed by 400 companies and shareholder increase plans by 380 companies [7]. - The total amount for buybacks and increases reached 843 billion yuan and 537 billion yuan respectively, indicating strong market confidence [7]. Mergers and Acquisitions - In 2024, over 1,500 new merger transactions were recorded on the main board, with a total transaction value exceeding 1.4 trillion yuan, reflecting increased market activity [9]. - The core logic of mergers and acquisitions remains focused on industrial integration and enhancing competitive advantages, with traditional industries restructuring assets and emerging industries expanding their technological capabilities [10]. Capital Market Efficiency - Mergers and acquisitions are seen as key tools for optimizing resource allocation in the capital market, enhancing efficiency and vitality [11]. - Successful restructuring cases can boost investor confidence and attract long-term capital, contributing to the overall improvement of the capital market [11].

Summary of the Paper Industry Weekly Tracking Industry Overview - The report focuses on the paper industry, specifically the pricing trends of various paper products and raw materials, including wood pulp and waste paper [1][2]. Key Points Wood Pulp Prices - Wood pulp prices have shown a slight decrease compared to the previous week: - Copper plate paper: 5600 CNY/ton, down 45 CNY/ton (↓0.80%) [1] - Double glue paper: 5266 CNY/ton, down 38 CNY/ton (↓0.71%) [1] - White card paper: 4105 CNY/ton, down 48 CNY/ton (↓1.14%) [1] - White board paper: 3213 CNY/ton, down 8 CNY/ton (↓0.23%) [1] Waste Paper Prices - Waste paper prices have experienced a slight increase: - Corrugated paper: 3158 CNY/ton, up 8 CNY/ton (↑0.24%) [1] - Boxboard paper: 4238 CNY/ton, up 8 CNY/ton (↑0.18%) [1] Domestic Pulp Prices - Domestic pulp prices have decreased compared to the previous week: - Domestic needle pulp: 6210 CNY/ton, down 83 CNY/ton (↓1.31%) [2] - Domestic broadleaf pulp: 4188 CNY/ton, down 149 CNY/ton (↓3.43%) [2] - Chemical mechanical pulp: 3875 CNY/ton, unchanged [2] National Waste Prices - National waste prices have also decreased: - National waste yellow board paper: 1520 CNY/ton, down 10 CNY/ton (↓0.65%) [2] Additional Insights - The report indicates a mixed trend in paper prices, with wood pulp prices declining while waste paper prices are on the rise, suggesting potential shifts in supply and demand dynamics within the industry [1][2].

晨会纪要（2025/05/12） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.05.12） 宏观及策略研究 情绪波动后的基本面博弈——2025 年 5 月宏观经济月报 固定收益研究 双降落地后，债市或回归基本面交易――利率债 5 月投资策略展望 行业研究 秘鲁安塔米拉铜矿停工，欧盟拟改变电车关税政策 ——金属行业 5 月投资策 略展望 轻工纺服一季度业绩均有承压，后续关注内需政策发力——轻工制造&纺织 服饰行业 2024 年年报&2025 年一季报业绩综述 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 要 晨会纪要（2025/05/12） 宏观及策略研究 情绪波动后的基本面博弈——2025 年 5 月宏观经济月报 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，S ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the paper and light industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The light manufacturing industry index increased by 3.02%, outperforming the market by 1.02 percentage points, with the paper sub-sector rising by 2.17%, also surpassing the market by 0.16 percentage points [2][13] - The report highlights that the cultural paper sector is entering an off-peak season, leading to a decline in pulp and paper prices [4] - The report recommends leading companies in the integrated forest-pulp-paper industry, such as Sun Paper (002078, Buy), and suggests focusing on leading special paper companies like Xianhe Co. (603733, Buy) and Huawang Technology (605377, Buy) [4] Summary by Sections Market Review - The light manufacturing industry index rose by 3.02%, while the paper sub-sector increased by 2.17%, ranking 9th among 28 first-level industries [2][13][20] Industry Chain Data Tracking - The report notes a decline in wood pulp product prices, with domestic waste prices slightly increasing by 1.5 CNY/ton, while foreign waste prices decreased by 5-10 USD/ton [9][24] - The average market price for finished paper products saw declines: double glue paper down by 38 CNY/ton, copper plate paper down by 45 CNY/ton, and white card paper down by 48 CNY/ton [39][40][42] Profitability Levels - Profitability in cultural paper is diverging, with small paper companies seeing an increase of 25 CNY/ton in double glue paper, while large companies experienced a decrease of 43 CNY/ton [48][49] - The profitability of packaging paper is declining, with white card paper profitability down by 20-48 CNY/ton [48][51] Production Data - The cumulative production of mechanical paper and paperboard in the first quarter of 2025 reached 38.19 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [57] - The report indicates that the import volume of paper and paperboard decreased by 8.2% year-on-year, while the export volume increased by 10.7% [57]