Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced a rebound on March 10, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4123.14 points, up 0.65%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closing at 14354.07 points, up 2.04% [1][4] - The ChiNext Index rose by 3.04%, and the total trading volume of the A-share market was 241.68 billion yuan, slightly down from the previous day [1][4] - Among the 30 first-level industries of CITIC, 7 saw an increase, with telecommunications, electronics, and machinery leading the gains, while petroleum, coal, and agriculture experienced significant declines [1][4] Overseas Market Overview - On the same day, the U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.07% and the S&P 500 down 0.21%, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.01% [2][4] - Major technology stocks mostly increased, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising by 1.96%, and companies like NIO and Century Internet seeing significant gains of over 15% and 14%, respectively [2][4] Trade Data - In the first two months of the year, China's foreign trade growth returned to double digits at 18.3%, with total trade value reaching 7.73 trillion yuan [3][11] - Exports amounted to 4.62 trillion yuan, up 19.2%, while imports were 3.11 trillion yuan, increasing by 17.1% [11] - Trade with ASEAN and the EU grew by approximately 20%, while trade with the U.S. decreased by 16.9% [11] Industry News - The Ministry of Transport held discussions with Maersk Group and Mediterranean Shipping Company regarding international shipping operations [3][12] - Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait are reportedly cutting oil production by up to 6.7 million barrels per day, with Saudi Arabia reducing its output by 2 to 2.5 million barrels per day [3][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Excluding the factors of the US-Iran conflict and soaring oil prices, the bond market trend after the Spring Festival would not change in essence, only with slight differences in amplitude and rhythm. The bond market is expected to fluctuate in March, with the 10-year Treasury yield ranging from 1.78% to 1.85% and the 30-year Treasury yield ranging from 2.22% to 2.3% [3]. - In the short term, interest rates usually adjust first in response to imported inflation, with a rebound period of half a month to three months and a 10-year Treasury adjustment range of 6 - 26bp. In the long term, it depends on the monetary policy attitude. The central bank will not overreact to oil price fluctuations unless they are demand-driven and affect inflation expectations and core inflation [3]. - An oil supply shock generally leads to rising domestic Treasury yields and falling stock markets, rising gold prices, rising US Treasury yields, and a differentiated performance of the US dollar and US stocks [3]. - In the optimistic scenario, PPI turns positive year-on-year in April, with a peak of around 1.2% in August or September; in the baseline scenario, it turns positive in April, with a peak of around 1.8% in September; in the pessimistic scenario, it turns positive in March, with a peak of around 2.15% in August. Additionally, a 10% increase in the two-month moving average oil price corresponds to a 0.2 percentage point increase in the monthly PPI month-on-month [3]. - Rising oil prices benefit the mining and upstream material industries, while having an uncertain impact on the oil processing, chemical raw material, and chemical fiber manufacturing industries. In the early stage of rising oil prices, the profit margins of small and medium-sized enterprises may be further compressed [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Is the Bond Market Worried about "Oil Inflation"? - After the Spring Festival, the bond market was affected by various factors such as the Shanghai property market policy, the US-Iran conflict, and changes in the central bank's operations. The core factor driving the bond market is not "oil inflation," which only amplifies trading fluctuations. The bond market is expected to fluctuate in March, with the 10-year Treasury yield ranging from 1.78% to 1.85% and the 30-year Treasury yield ranging from 2.22% to 2.3%. It is recommended to start deploying for the second-quarter trend opportunities in late March [6][8][16]. 2. How Much Impact Does "Oil Inflation" Have on the Bond Market? 2.1 Four Dimensions of the Impact of Imported Inflation on the Bond Market - In the short term, interest rates usually adjust first, with a rebound period of half a month to three months and a 10-year Treasury adjustment range of 6 - 26bp. The uncertainties lie in the duration of the rise in underlying commodity prices and the emergence of incremental positive factors. In the long term, it depends on the central bank's attitude towards oil price fluctuations. The short - end of the bond market is likely to remain stable, while the long - end has an upper limit on interest rates [20][21][23]. 2.2 Impact of Oil Supply Shocks on Various Assets - Four major oil supply shocks (Iraq War, Arab Spring, Russia-Ukraine conflict, and US-Iran conflict) generally led to rising domestic Treasury yields, falling stock markets, rising gold prices, rising US Treasury yields, and a differentiated performance of the US dollar and US stocks [27]. 3. How Much Impact Does the Rising Oil Price Have on China's PPI? - Based on different scenarios of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and oil price trends, in the optimistic scenario, PPI turns positive year - on - year in April, with a peak of around 1.2% in August or September; in the baseline scenario, it turns positive in April, with a peak of around 1.8% in September; in the pessimistic scenario, it turns positive in March, with a peak of around 2.15% in August. A 10% increase in the two - month moving average oil price corresponds to a 0.2 percentage point increase in the monthly PPI month - on - month [31][32]. 4. Pay Attention to the Impact of Rising Oil Prices on the Middle and Lower Reaches and Small and Medium - Sized Enterprises - Rising oil prices benefit upstream industries such as oil and gas exploration and oilfield services. For the mid - stream, the profit of the refining industry depends on the price increase speed of crude oil and refined oil, and the petrochemical industry faces cost pressure. For the downstream, industries such as aviation, shipping, and agriculture face rising costs. Historically, rising oil prices mainly benefit the mining and upstream material industries, with an uncertain impact on the oil processing, chemical raw material, and chemical fiber manufacturing industries. In the early stage of rising oil prices, the profit margins of small and medium - sized enterprises may be further compressed [36][37][45].

Core Viewpoint - The report maintains Pacific Basin Shipping's (02343) 2026 net profit at $176 million and introduces a 2027 net profit estimate of $180 million, with a target price increase of 41.67% to HKD 3.4 per share, reflecting an upside potential of 8.63% from the current stock price [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's 2025 performance was below expectations, with revenue of $2.081 billion, a year-on-year decline of 19%, and a net profit of $58 million, corresponding to a basic earnings per share of 1.14 cents, down 56% year-on-year [2] - The average daily income for the company's small and ultra-small vessels in 2025 was $11,490 and $12,850, respectively, with year-on-year declines of 11% and 6%, although these rates were still 9% and 10% higher than market indices [2] Group 2: Dividend Policy and Share Buyback - The company announced a cash dividend of $50.5 million for 2025, representing 100% of net profit after deducting ship sale proceeds [3] - For 2026, the company revised its dividend policy to distribute at least 50% of net profit after deducting ship sale proceeds, with a potential increase to 100% if net cash is achieved by year-end, leading to a projected dividend yield of 4.3% to 8.6% based on current profit assumptions [3] - The company plans to continue share buybacks in 2026, with a maximum buyback amount of $40 million [3] Group 3: Market Outlook and Supply Dynamics - Limited new supply is expected, with a positive outlook for small vessel supply-demand dynamics, as the company continues to optimize its fleet structure to build long-term competitive advantages [4] - According to Clarksons, as of March 2026, the order book for large and small handy-sized vessels stands at 11.7% and 8.5%, respectively, with over 20-year-old vessels accounting for 13% and 14% of capacity [4] - The demand for small vessels is closely linked to that of large vessels, and potential catalysts for large vessel demand, such as the commissioning of the Simandou project, could further improve the supply-demand balance for small vessels [4] - In December 2025, the company announced the acquisition of four new small handy-sized vessels, expected to be delivered in the first half of 2028, enhancing the long-term competitiveness of its fleet [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC maintains the net profit forecast for Pacific Shipping (02343) at $176 million for 2026 and introduces a new forecast of $180 million for 2027, with a target price increase of 41.67% to HKD 3.4 per share, indicating an upside potential of 8.63% from the current stock price [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's 2025 performance was below expectations, with revenue of $2.081 billion, a year-on-year decline of 19%, and a net profit of $58 million, corresponding to a basic earnings per share of 1.14 cents, down 56% year-on-year [2] - The company's average daily income for small and ultra-small vessels in 2025 was $11,490 and $12,850 respectively, with year-on-year declines of 11% and 6%, although these figures were still above market indices by 9% and 10% [2] Group 2: Dividend Policy and Share Buyback - The company announced a cash dividend of $50.5 million for 2025, representing 100% of net profit after excluding ship sale proceeds [3] - For 2026, the company revised its dividend policy to distribute at least 50% of net profit after excluding ship sale proceeds, with a potential maximum payout of 100% if net cash is achieved by year-end, leading to a projected dividend yield of 4.3% to 8.6% based on current profit assumptions [3] - The company plans to continue share buybacks in 2026, with a maximum buyback amount of $40 million [3] Group 3: Market Outlook and Supply Dynamics - Limited new supply is expected, with a focus on improving the supply-demand balance for small vessels, as the company continues to optimize its fleet structure for long-term competitive advantage [4] - According to Clarksons, as of March 2026, the order book for large and small vessels stands at 11.7% and 8.5% respectively, with older vessels accounting for 13% and 14% of capacity [4] - The demand for small vessels is closely linked to that of large vessels, and potential catalysts for large vessel demand, such as the commissioning of the Ximandu project, could further enhance the supply-demand dynamics for small vessels [4] - The company announced the acquisition of four new small vessels in December 2025, expected to be delivered in the first half of 2028, which will enhance the long-term competitiveness of its fleet [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The risk preference of the stock market may be restored, and in the short term, IM/IC may perform better than the weighted stocks. The concern is on the repair opportunities of IM/IC, but be cautious about chasing ups and selling downs [15][16]. - The concern about malignant imported inflation has eased, but the high risk preference still suppresses the bond market. The medium - and short - term bonds may be judged as bearish, and it may not be necessary to rush to buy at the bottom [17]. - For steel, take profit on short - term long positions at high prices, hold the previously sold wide - straddle options; hold the iron ore sold wide - straddle strategy and hold some long - term short positions. For the iron ore 05 - 09 spread, participate in positive arbitrage at low prices [19]. - The prices of coking coal and coke may fluctuate in the short term, and continue to pay attention to the recovery of downstream demand and the fluctuation of international crude oil prices. In the medium term, the supply - demand pattern is expected to continue to fluctuate widely [20][22]. - For ferrosilicon and manganese silicon, short at high prices in the short term, and be cautious about the over - expected rise caused by the further fermentation of energy sentiment [23]. - For soda ash and glass, adopt a wait - and - see attitude for now [23]. - The copper price may fluctuate in the short term due to inventory suppression, and pay attention to the inventory change rhythm and macro changes [26]. - For zinc, adopt a bearish - biased and oscillatory thinking, and operate short positions cyclically [26]. - For lead, after taking profit on the previous short positions, wait for the price to rise and then arrange short positions [28]. - Lithium carbonate may fluctuate widely in the short term, and pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [30]. - Industrial silicon may fluctuate, and continue to pay attention to the opportunity of selling wide - straddle options; polysilicon may fluctuate weakly, and wait and see for now [31]. - Cotton may run strongly at a high level, and pay attention to the actual demand of the "Golden March and Silver April" market and the impact of peripheral conflicts [33]. - Sugar may rebound with pressure and operate in a high - level oscillatory manner [34]. - The spot price of eggs may rise in March, but the supply pressure is still large. The futures contracts in the second quarter may enter an oscillatory pattern, and be cautious about shorting at the current position. The active replenishment in the breeding link suppresses the contracts in the second half of the year [36]. - High - quality apple sources may continue a strong trend, and the futures market may run strongly [38][39]. - Be cautious about chasing up the corn price to prevent it from falling back after rising, and choose to do 5 - 7 reverse arbitrage [40]. - Red dates may maintain a weak oscillatory trend [40]. - The spot price of live pigs continues to be under pressure, and the futures market is expected to oscillate at a low level [43]. - The geopolitical premium of crude oil has significantly subsided, but there are still many variables. If the conflict ends and navigation resumes, the oil price may have a large decline [43]. - Fuel oil may enter a high - level fluctuation [44]. - Polyolefins may enter an oscillatory stage in the short term, and the future price trend depends on when the war is resolved [45]. - For rubber, be cautious about unilateral trading, continue to pay attention to narrowing the RU - NR and RU - BR price differences in mid - to late March, and wait and see after taking profit, and then pay attention to the opportunity of selling put options at low prices [48]. - Synthetic rubber may maintain high volatility in the short term, and wait and see overall [49]. - The short - term price of methanol may continue to pull back, and the long - term supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, but there is great uncertainty [50]. - For caustic soda, maintain a wide - range, bearish - biased and oscillatory thinking before the overseas war ends, and do not hold long - term positions [51]. - The price of asphalt still follows the oil price to oscillate and adjust [52]. - PVC may be weak in the short term, and the long - term trend depends on when the war is resolved [53]. - The short - term trend of the polyester industry chain is still dominated by the crude oil price and market sentiment, and pay attention to the implementation progress of device maintenance and the substantial recovery of polyester demand in the medium and long term [54]. - LPG is expected to remain strong but relatively weaker than crude oil [55]. - For pulp, if the market trading environment improves and the port inventory starts to decline, you can try to go long at low prices or pay attention to the accumulation - purchase strategy, and pay attention to macro - risk prevention [57]. - Logs may oscillate upward in the short term, and pay attention to the impact of the first new delivery after the adjustment of the delivery rules and the impact of the US - Iran conflict on commodities and the macro - sentiment [58]. - For urea, adopt a short - at - high strategy [59]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Based on Fundamental Analysis - **Trend Bearish**: Caustic soda, 20 - number rubber, p - xylene, bottle chips, short - fiber, ethylene glycol, PTA, urea, live pigs, red dates, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, plastic, PVC, methanol [3]. - **Oscillatory and Bearish - Biased**: Zinc, lead, rubber, industrial silicon, polysilicon, white sugar, cotton, synthetic rubber, offset printing paper, pulp, log, rebar, iron ore, hot - rolled coil, egg, corn, copper, glass, soda ash, coke, coking coal, CSI 300 stock index futures, CSI 500 stock index futures, CSI 1000 index futures, SSE 50 stock index futures, crude oil [3]. - **Oscillatory and Bullish - Biased**: Asphalt, fuel oil, apple [3]. Based on Quantitative Indicator Analysis - **Bearish - Biased**: Hot - rolled coil, soybeans No. 2, PVC, rapeseed oil, plastic, iron ore [8]. - **Oscillatory**: Rapeseed meal, Zhengzhou cotton, manganese silicon, soybean No. 1, palm oil, soybean meal, corn starch, Shanghai zinc, Shanghai silver, PTA, soybean oil, Shanghai gold, methanol, white sugar, egg, polypropylene, Shanghai aluminum, rebar, glass [8]. - **Bullish - Biased**: Coking coal, Shanghai tin, coke, Shanghai lead, rubber, corn, Shanghai copper [8]. Macro News - The US - Iran conflict situation: Trump said the war would end soon but not this week. Israel said the action against Iran was not over. Iran said its priority was "decisive defense" [10]. - China's foreign trade data: In the first two months of this year, China's total import and export value of goods trade was 7.73 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 18.3%. Exports were 4.62 trillion yuan, an increase of 19.2%; imports were 3.11 trillion yuan, an increase of 17.1%. The import and export to the US decreased by 16.9%, while those to ASEAN and the EU increased by about 20% [10]. - Shipping industry: The Ministry of Transport and the National Development and Reform Commission held talks with the person - in - charge of Maersk Group and Mediterranean Shipping Company [10]. - Internet security: Some financial institutions were required to strictly control the deployment of external platforms like OpenClaw due to security concerns [11]. - Mobile phone price increase: OPPO will adjust the prices of some products from March 16. Other brands like Xiaomi, vivo, and Honor are also planning price increases in March [11]. - Housing provident fund policy: Chengdu plans to introduce a new housing provident fund policy, including increasing the loan limit by 200,000 yuan, canceling the limit on the number of provident fund loans, etc. [11]. - Technology companies: Tencent is secretly developing an AI agent for WeChat, which is expected to start gray - box testing in the middle of this year and be launched to all users in the third quarter [11]. - AI industry: Anthropic added a code review function to Claude Code, challenging the code security audit industry [12]. - International relations: Trump warned Iran not to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz. The US asked Israel to stop further air strikes on Iran's energy facilities. The US - Russia - Ukraine tripartite talks will be postponed to next week [12]. - Economic data: South Korea's GDP in the fourth quarter of 2025 contracted by 0.2% quarter - on - quarter, and the annual economic growth in 2025 was 1% [12]. - IPO news: SpaceX prefers to list on the NASDAQ, and this listing is expected to be the largest in history [13]. - Fiscal policy: In 2026, the national debt limit is 485,508 billion yuan, the local government general debt limit is 188,689 billion yuan, and the special debt limit is 443,185 billion yuan. The National People's Congress Financial and Economic Committee suggests preventing special - debt repayment risks [13]. - Oil supply: Iran restated that hostile vessels have no right to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, and Kuwait have cut oil production by about 6.7 million barrels per day, reducing the global oil supply by about 6% [13]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The risk preference may be restored, and in the short term, IM/IC may perform better than the weighted stocks. Pay attention to the repair opportunities of IM/IC but be cautious about chasing ups and selling downs [15][16]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The concern about malignant imported inflation has eased, but the high risk preference still suppresses the bond market. The medium - and short - term bonds may be judged as bearish, and it may not be necessary to rush to buy at the bottom [17]. Black Commodities - **Steel and Iron Ore**: The current order situation of steel is okay, but the inventory of hot - rolled coils is high, which suppresses steel prices. The demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for hot - rolled coils is good. The profit of steel mills is at a low level, and the iron - water output has increased slightly. In the short term, take profit on long positions of steel at high prices, hold the previously sold wide - straddle options; hold the iron ore sold wide - straddle strategy and hold some long - term short positions. For the iron ore 05 - 09 spread, participate in positive arbitrage at low prices [18][19]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices may fluctuate in the short term, and continue to pay attention to the recovery of downstream demand and the fluctuation of international crude oil prices. In the medium term, the supply - demand pattern is expected to continue to fluctuate widely [20][22]. - **Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: The absolute prices are still relatively high, and it is mainly short - at - high in the short term. Be cautious about the over - expected rise caused by the further fermentation of energy sentiment [23]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Adopt a wait - and - see attitude for now. For soda ash, pay attention to the supply stability of leading enterprises and the progress of new production capacity. For glass, pay attention to the actual changes in production lines and the recovery of demand [23][24]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The geopolitical tension has eased, but the copper price may fluctuate in the short term due to inventory suppression. Pay attention to the inventory change rhythm and macro changes [26]. - **Zinc**: Adopt a bearish - biased and oscillatory thinking, and operate short positions cyclically [26]. - **Lead**: After taking profit on the previous short positions, wait for the price to rise and then arrange short positions [28]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It may fluctuate widely in the short term, and pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [30]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon may fluctuate, and continue to pay attention to the opportunity of selling wide - straddle options; polysilicon may fluctuate weakly, and wait and see for now [31]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: It may run strongly at a high level, and pay attention to the actual demand of the "Golden March and Silver April" market and the impact of peripheral conflicts [33]. - **Sugar**: It may rebound with pressure and operate in a high - level oscillatory manner [34]. - **Eggs**: The spot price may rise in March, but the supply pressure is still large. The futures contracts in the second quarter may enter an oscillatory pattern, and be cautious about shorting at the current position. The active replenishment in the breeding link suppresses the contracts in the second half of the year [36]. - **Apples**: High - quality sources may continue a strong trend, and the futures market may run strongly [38][39]. - **Corn**: Be cautious about chasing up the price to prevent it from falling back after rising, and choose to do 5 - 7 reverse arbitrage [40]. - **Red Dates**: They may maintain a weak oscillatory trend [40]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price continues to be under pressure, and the futures market is expected to oscillate at a low level [43]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical premium has significantly subsided, but there are still many variables. If the conflict ends and navigation resumes, the oil price may have a large decline [43]. - **Fuel Oil**: It may enter a high - level fluctuation [44]. - **Polyolefins**: They may enter an oscillatory stage in the short term, and the future price trend depends on when the war is resolved [45]. - **Rubber**: Be cautious about unilateral trading, continue to pay attention to narrowing the RU - NR and RU - BR price differences in mid - to late March, and wait and see after taking profit, and then pay attention to the opportunity of selling put options at low prices [48]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It may maintain high volatility in the short term, and wait and see overall [49]. - **Methanol**: The short - term price may continue to pull back, and the long - term supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, but there is great uncertainty [50]. - **Caustic Soda**: Maintain a wide - range, bearish - biased and oscillatory thinking before the overseas war ends, and do not hold long - term positions [51]. - **Asphalt**: The price still follows the oil price to oscillate and adjust [52]. - **PVC**: It may be weak in the short term, and the long - term trend depends on when the war is resolved [53]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: The short - term trend is still dominated by the crude oil price and market sentiment, and pay attention to the implementation progress of device maintenance and the substantial recovery of polyester demand in the medium and long term [54]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: It is expected to remain strong but relatively weaker than crude oil [55]. - **Pulp**: If the market trading environment improves and the port inventory starts to decline, you can try to go long at low prices or pay attention to the accumulation - purchase strategy, and pay attention to macro - risk prevention [57]. - **Logs**: They may oscillate upward in the short term, and pay attention to the impact of the first new delivery after the adjustment of the delivery rules and the impact of the US - Iran conflict on commodities and the macro - sentiment [58]. - **Urea**: Adopt a short - at - high strategy [59].

1. Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: March 11, 2026 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Investment Rating - Not provided 3. Core View - The Middle East situation has changed, causing the container shipping index to weaken significantly. The supply - demand fundamentals show that it is still the off - season after the Spring Festival. Short - term tariff issues are unlikely to trigger exporters to rush shipments, and the demand for photovoltaic exports is limited. The shipping capacity supply in March and April is still at a high level in the same period of history. Although the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz does not affect the European routes, the Red Sea resumption plan has slowed down, which can continue to digest the shipping capacity pressure. The current off - season price increase may be more for price stabilization and difficult to be actually implemented. It is recommended to pay attention to the actual cargo collection situation later. The suspension of the Middle East route may cause the shipping capacity supply to overflow to other routes, but the impact is limited. The main factor is that the suspension of the Red Sea resumption plan can digest the excess shipping capacity, but it is difficult to change the fundamental pattern of oversupply of European route shipping capacity. Short - term geopolitical conflicts have a greater impact on the sentiment of far - month contracts and the futures market, which may lead to a phased strengthening of the index, but it is also prone to a sharp correction when the event eases and the sentiment cools down. Attention should be paid to the convergence of spot and futures prices near the delivery period in the second half of March, and there are opportunities to short - allocate the off - season contracts 04 and 06 [7]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Situation**: The Middle East situation has changed, and the container shipping index has weakened significantly. The supply - demand fundamentals are in the off - season, with limited short - term demand and high shipping capacity supply. The Red Sea resumption plan has slowed down, which can digest some shipping capacity pressure. The off - season price increase may be for price stabilization [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Pay attention to the actual cargo collection situation. The suspension of the Middle East route has a limited impact. The main factor is the suspension of the Red Sea resumption plan. Short - term geopolitical conflicts may cause the index to strengthen in the short term but are also prone to sharp corrections. Pay attention to the convergence of spot and futures prices near the delivery period in the second half of March, and short - allocate the off - season contracts 04 and 06 [7]. 4.2 Industry News - **Overall Market**: The China export container shipping market is affected by the sharp escalation of the geopolitical situation, with increased fluctuations in freight rates and a rising comprehensive index. On March 6, the Shanghai Export Container Comprehensive Freight Index was 1489.19 points, a 11.7% increase from the previous period [8]. - **European Routes**: The eurozone's January unemployment rate dropped slightly to 6.1%, indicating stable economic growth. However, there are many uncertainties in the future. The transportation market of the Asia - Europe route is basically stable, with flat demand and a slight increase in freight rates. On March 6, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was 1452 US dollars/TEU, a 2.3% increase from the previous period [8][9]. - **Mediterranean Routes**: The market situation is basically the same as that of European routes, with the spot market booking price continuing to rise. On March 6, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports was 2360 US dollars/TEU, a 2.4% increase from the previous period [9]. - **North American Routes**: The US February ADP employment increased by 63,000, better than expected, and the employment market showed signs of stabilization. However, military actions in the Middle East may increase inflation pressure and slow down economic growth. The transportation demand is weak, and the freight rate continues to rise. On March 6, the freight rates from Shanghai Port to the US West and East basic ports were 1940 US dollars/FEU and 2717 US dollars/FEU respectively, with increases of 4.5% and 1.0% from the previous period [9]. - **Other News**: Trump said the war with Iran may end soon. The number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz is increasing. G7 finance ministers discussed how to deal with the soaring oil prices but have not decided to release strategic oil reserves. The US Supreme Court ruled that some tariffs are illegal, and China urges the US to cancel relevant tariffs [9]. 4.3 Data Overview 4.3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - **European Routes**: On March 9, 2026, the SCFIS for European routes (basic ports) was 1545.46 points, an 82.06 - point increase (5.6%) from March 2 [11]. - **US West Routes**: On March 9, 2026, the SCFIS for US West routes (basic ports) was 1121.22 points, a 76.14 - point increase (7.3%) from March 2 [11]. 4.3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Market - The trading data of container shipping European line futures on March 10 shows that different contracts have different price changes, trading volumes, and position changes [6]. 4.3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index, the trend of container shipping European line futures contracts, European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, and Shanghai - European basic port freight rates [11][16][17][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report downgrades the previous overweight rating of stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals to equal - weight in the short term, and relatively recommends allocating TS and TF [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - For the expectation of US dollar monetary policy, it's important to judge the stage of the current geopolitical conflict, as it affects the market's judgment on inflation and the economy. The Fed will react when long - term inflation expectations change. It's too early to discuss the duration of the war, and a neutral scenario is recommended as the benchmark for asset allocation. In the short term, it's advisable to manage the positions of risk assets such as equities and commodities [1] - After the release of the "Report", the market's policy expectation of the government's active efforts in the first half of the year to support the economic start of the "15th Five - Year Plan" will gradually converge, and then shift to the verification stage of real data [1] - Stock indices may enter a period of shock adjustment due to the convergence of policy boost expectations and overseas event impacts. Non - ferrous metals and precious metals may be affected by the unfalsifiable expectation of tightened monetary conditions. Investors are advised to pay attention to the development of geopolitical events and the verification of domestic economic data before re - evaluating asset cost - effectiveness and portfolio construction strategies [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Performance - **Domestic Commodity Futures Market**: Most domestic commodity futures closed lower. Shipping futures led the decline, with the Container Shipping Index (European Line) down 13.92%. All energy products fell, with crude oil down 10.76%. Most chemical products declined, with ethylene glycol down 5.26%. Most black - series products dropped, with coke down 4.49%. All non - metallic building materials decreased, with glass down 4.44%. All oilseeds and oils declined, with soybean oil down 3.14%. All agricultural and sideline products fell, with logs down 2.28%. Most new - energy materials declined, with industrial silicon down 1.88%. Precious metals led the gains, with Shanghai silver up 7.11%. Most base metals rose, with Shanghai tin up 2.24% [1] - **Financial Market**: On March 10, 2026, stock index futures generally rose, with CSI 300 futures up 1.35%, SSE 50 futures up 0.63%, CSI 500 futures up 1.46%, and CSI 1000 futures up 1.53%. Treasury bond futures showed mixed performance, with 2 - year Treasury bond futures up 0.01%, 5 - year Treasury bond futures unchanged, 10 - year Treasury bond futures down 0.01%, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures up 0.01%. The US dollar index was down 0.24% [7] - **Industry Index**: On March 10, 2026, among the CITIC industry indices, industries such as national defense and military industry, machinery, and electronics rose, while industries such as petroleum and petrochemicals and coal declined [8][9] - **Overseas Commodities**: On March 9, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil was down 6.4%, ICE Brent crude oil was down 3.13%, COMEX gold was down 0.19%, and COMEX silver was up 3.6% [10][11] - **Domestic Main Commodities**: On March 10, 2026, shipping futures such as the Container Shipping Index (European Line) declined significantly, precious metals such as gold and silver rose, and most energy - chemical products such as crude oil and methanol fell [12][13][14] 3.2 Asset Views by Sector - **Financial**: Stock index futures and options are affected by risk factors and are in a state of shock. The market is waiting and observing. The focus is on incremental funds and AI enterprise credit risks. Treasury bond futures are affected by how fiscal policy will be implemented this year and are in a state of shock. Gold and silver are affected by rising inflation expectations suppressing interest - rate cut expectations and are in a state of shock. The focus is on US fundamental data, Fed monetary policy, and the geopolitical situation [4] - **Shipping**: The Container Shipping Index (European Line) is affected by geopolitical conflicts and shipping companies' price - holding, and is in a state of weak shock. The focus is on the progress of geopolitical events, ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, the situation in the Middle East, and the opening of the spot market [4] - **Black Building Materials**: The prices of black - building materials such as steel, iron ore, and coke are affected by factors such as cost support, supply and demand, and geopolitical risks, and are in a state of shock [4] - **Non - ferrous and New Materials**: The prices of non - ferrous metals and new materials such as copper, aluminum, and nickel are affected by factors such as oil price fluctuations, supply and demand, and geopolitical risks, and are in a state of wide - range shock [4] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Energy - chemical products such as crude oil, LPG, and methanol are affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, oil price fluctuations, and supply and demand, and are in a state of high - volatility shock [4][5] - **Agriculture**: Agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and livestock are affected by factors such as the situation in the Middle East, oil price fluctuations, and supply and demand, and are in a state of shock [4][5]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The US-Iran geopolitical risk eases, leading to the rebound of the stock index, with the communication sector leading the rise and the petrochemical sector leading the fall. The market turnover is 2.42 trillion yuan. From March onwards, as listed companies gradually disclose their annual and first - quarter reports, the market will shift from being "expectation - driven" to "profit - driven", entering the "selecting alpha" stage. Stocks without performance support may remain weak, while policy - beneficiary and performance - improving sectors may have sustainable opportunities. In the long run, the stock index trend will return to the domestic fundamentals and policies, and is expected to resume an upward trend in shock after the geopolitical risk eases. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts for different periods (current month, next month, next quarter, and alternate quarter) are 4664.00, 4646.40, 4601.00, and 4533.00 respectively, with increases of 60.80, 61.40, 63.40, and 66.40. The trading volumes are 57102.00, 4731.00, 22790.00, and 9654.00, and the open interest changes are - 17696.00, 406.00, - 985.00, and 129.00 respectively. The price - to - price spreads between next - month and current - month contracts change from - 19.00 to - 17.60. [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts for different periods are 2981.40, 2980.40, 2973.00, and 2935.40 respectively, with increases of 17.80, 18.60, 20.00, and 22.40. The trading volumes are 25641.00, 2992.00, 10631.00, and 3144.00, and the open interest changes are - 5526.00, 601.00, 187.00, and - 541.00 respectively. The price - to - price spreads between next - month and current - month contracts change from - 4.40 to - 1.00. [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts for different periods are 8393.60, 8355.00, 8239.00, and 8083.20 respectively, with increases of 129.60, 142.60, 159.60, and 176.60. The trading volumes are 83464.00, 8674.00, 46281.00, and 16828.00, and the open interest changes are - 15564.00, 1771.00, 551.00, and 549.00 respectively. The price - to - price spreads between next - month and current - month contracts change from - 47.00 to - 38.60. [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts for different periods are 8313.60, 8259.60, 8102.60, and 7905.60 respectively, with increases of 130.00, 136.40, 141.00, and 147.80. The trading volumes are 108844.00, 10221.00, 51791.00, and 19827.00, and the open interest changes are - 28389.00, 1061.00, - 3416.00, and - 261.00 respectively. The price - to - price spreads between next - month and current - month contracts change from - 60.80 to - 54.00. [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The previous day's closing prices of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are 4674.76, 2981.84, 8410.30, and 8350.09 respectively, with increases of 1.28%, 0.64%, 1.58%, and 1.78%. The trading volumes (in billion lots) are 263.90, 54.23, 239.94, and 311.69, and the total trading amounts (in billion yuan) are 5576.08, 1217.62, 4650.82, and 5335.11 respectively. [1] - **Industry Indexes**: The energy, raw materials, industry, optional consumption, major consumption, medical and health, real - estate and finance, information technology, telecommunications services, and public utilities sectors have changes of - 4.99%, 0.35%, 1.92%, 1.22%, 0.04%, 2.04%, 0.56%, 2.86%, 3.30%, and - 0.08% respectively. [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - **IF Contracts and CSI 300**: The basis between IF contracts for different periods and the CSI 300 changes. For example, the basis of the current - month IF contract and the CSI 300 changes from - 16.26 to - 10.76. [1] - **IH Contracts and SSE 50**: The basis between IH contracts for different periods and the SSE 50 changes. For example, the basis of the current - month IH contract and the SSE 50 changes from - 0.59 to - 0.44. [1] - **IC Contracts and CSI 500**: The basis between IC contracts for different periods and the CSI 500 changes. For example, the basis of the current - month IC contract and the CSI 500 changes from - 12.48 to - 16.70. [1] - **IM Contracts and CSI 1000**: The basis between IM contracts for different periods and the CSI 1000 changes. For example, the basis of the current - month IM contract and the CSI 1000 changes from - 12.87 to - 36.49. [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous day's closing prices of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index are 4123.14, 14354.07, 8772.63, and 3306.14 respectively, with increases of 0.65%, 2.04%, 1.74%, and 3.04%. [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous day's closing prices of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index are 25959.90, 54248.39, 6781.48, and 23968.63 respectively, with increases of 2.17%, 2.88%, - 0.21%, and 2.39%. [1] 3.5 Macro Information - **Geopolitical Situation**: US President Trump said that the war with Iran would end "soon" but not this week. If Iran blocks oil transportation in the Strait of Hormuz, the US will launch a much more violent attack. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said the action against Iran was "not over". Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Garib Abadi said Iran's priority was "resolute defense". [2] - **Oil Market**: International oil prices fluctuated sharply on March 10, with the US oil main contract dropping more than 19% at one point. Trump said he was willing to talk with Iran, exempt some oil - related sanctions, and send the navy to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, but there were disputes over whether the escort had been carried out. [2] - **Shipping Industry**: The Ministry of Transport and the National Development and Reform Commission held talks with the relevant responsible persons of Maersk Group and Mediterranean Shipping Company. [2] - **AI Security**: Some financial institutions received risk warnings about strictly controlling the deployment of the OpenClaw external platform. Multiple regions introduced special support policies for "AI lobster - farming". [2] 3.6 Industry Information - **Industrial Data**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology launched the industrial data foundation - building action, carrying out pilot projects on building high - quality industry datasets for AI empowerment and promoting the implementation of scenarios such as industry large - model applications and industrial agent R & D. [2] - **Railway Transportation**: China Railway Corporation announced that starting from March 12, international passenger trains will run between Beijing, Dandong in China and Pyongyang in North Korea, and tickets are on sale offline. [2] - **Internet Platform**: Xiaohongshu prohibited the use of AI hosting technology for content creation and false interaction, and will punish violators. [2] - **Mobile Phone Industry**: With the continuous rise of storage prices, a new wave of mobile phone price increases is coming. OPPO will adjust the prices of some products from March 16, and other brands are also planning price increases. [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation sector, specifically recommending "Buy" for COSCO Shipping Holdings and "Add" for Daqin Railway [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant impact of geopolitical tensions on global transportation systems, particularly through rising oil prices and disruptions in shipping routes. It emphasizes that if the situation persists, it could lead to a permanent restructuring of global trade routes and increased transportation costs [6][11]. - The report identifies specific companies that may benefit from these changes, including COSCO Shipping, which is expected to see short-term increases in freight rates and potential long-term shifts in global trade routes [6][11]. Summary by Sections Oil Transportation - The report notes that approximately 31% of global oil exports are affected by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a significant increase in shipping rates. VLCC rates have surged to historical highs, with rates from the Middle East to China reaching $475,000 per day, a 118.2% increase from late February [20][67]. Air Transportation - Rising oil prices are expected to increase airline operating costs, with a projected increase of 7.3% to 14.7% in fuel costs depending on oil price scenarios. However, Chinese airlines may benefit from increased demand on European routes as a result of geopolitical shifts [7][72][73]. Rail Transportation - The China-Europe Railway Express is anticipated to see a rise in both volume and pricing due to the increased value of rail transport as an alternative to maritime shipping. The report suggests that rail transport could attract more high-value, time-sensitive goods as oil prices rise [8][9]. Road Transportation - The report indicates that rising fuel costs will pressure road freight rates, with potential shifts from road to rail for price-sensitive goods. The impact of high oil prices may also accelerate the adoption of new energy logistics vehicles in the long term [9][11]. Container Shipping - The report predicts a reversal in market expectations for container shipping, with rates expected to rebound due to disruptions in Middle Eastern routes. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) has already seen an increase of 11.7% since late February [39][40]. Bulk Shipping - The report anticipates a moderate increase in bulk shipping rates due to rising demand for iron ore and coal as China resumes operations post-holiday. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is expected to reflect these changes, with a potential increase in rates [48].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report provides daily data on the passage and freight rates in the Strait of Hormuz, including the number of ships passing through, and the freight rates of VLCCs, product tankers, and container ships [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Strait Passage - On March 9, 2 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz (with AIS on), the same as the previous day. As of 13:00 on March 10, 2 ships passed through in the past 24 hours (with AIS on), including 1 liquid bulk ship operated by MHK Shipping Corp [4]. VLCC Daily Freight Rates - On March 9, the freight rates from the Middle East to China and from West Africa to China were 14.36 and 13.28 dollars per barrel respectively, with daily-on-day changes of +0.9% and -2.9% compared to last Friday [4]. Product Tanker Middle East Shipment Daily Freight Rates - On March 9, the freight rates from Saudi Ras Tanura to Singapore LR (105kt) and from Saudi Ras Tanura to Yokohama, Japan (105kt) were updated to 6.81 and 11.64 dollars per barrel respectively, both down 3.7% compared to last Friday [4]. Container Shipping Freight Rates - According to the data released by the Tianjin International Trade and Shipping Service Center at 11:00 on March 10, the TCI Tianjin - Persian Gulf basic port index rose 10.4K to 942.8 points, and there was no freight rate record, possibly due to the stagnation of Middle East shipments. The freight rate from Tianjin to European basic ports was 2991.4 dollars/FEU, with the index rising 28 compared to the previous day. The freight rates from Tianjin to the western and eastern Mediterranean basic ports were 3790.8 and 3936 dollars/FEU respectively, with the index rising 2.4% compared to the previous day [4].