Core Viewpoint - The asphalt futures market is experiencing a slight upward trend, with the main contract increasing by 1.27% to 3439.00 yuan/ton as of September 25 [1] Industry Summary - As of the week ending September 24, the capacity utilization rate of 92 asphalt refineries in China was 42.0%, an increase of 5.7% week-on-week. The weekly asphalt production reached 701,000 tons, up 15.5% from the previous week [2] - The sample shipment volume from 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 496,000 tons for the week ending September 23, reflecting a 9.0% increase week-on-week [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported that the warehouse receipts for petroleum asphalt futures were 18,940 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day, while the factory warehouse receipts decreased by 2,140 tons to 37,040 tons [2] Institutional Perspectives - Guosen Futures noted that the daily operating load of asphalt in China was 45.03% as of September 24, a decrease of 3.80% from the previous Wednesday. The demand side shows weak characteristics, with many road construction projects experiencing delays, leading to a slow consumption pace of asphalt. Overall demand remains weak, with downstream users and traders adopting a cautious wait-and-see approach, primarily purchasing as needed. Recent fluctuations in international crude oil prices are influencing asphalt futures prices [3] - Jianxin Futures indicated that expectations of a shift to residual oil production by Haishi Chemical and some refineries' plans to reduce output may cut supply. However, the asphalt production plans of Jiangsu Xinhai Chemical and Shandong Shengxing Chemical are being implemented, alongside stable operations at Jin Cheng Chemical and Dongming Chemical. This is expected to lead to a continued increase in the operating load of asphalt facilities. Demand remains stable, with northern and central markets benefiting from favorable weather and project acceleration, while southern regions are affected by typhoon weather [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is slightly stronger following crude oil, with a trend strength of 1, indicating a moderately positive outlook [2][10] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For BU2511, the yesterday's closing price was 3,392 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.56%, and the night - session closing price was 3,415 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.68%. The trading volume was 152,942 lots, a decrease of 29,145 lots, and the open interest was 216,897 lots, a decrease of 14,925 lots. For BU2512, the yesterday's closing price was 3,337 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.51%, and the night - session closing price was 3,362 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.75%. The trading volume was 51,155 lots, a decrease of 4,666 lots, and the open interest was 90,322 lots, a decrease of 2,055 lots. The total market asphalt warehouse receipts were 55,980 lots with no change [3] - **Spread Data**: The basis (Shandong - 11) was 108 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; the 11 - 12 inter - period spread was 55 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton; the Shandong - South China spread was 0, a decrease of 10; the East China - South China spread was 60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [3] - **Spot Market Data**: The Shandong wholesale price was 3,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton, with the factory - warehouse spot equivalent to 3,544 yuan/ton on the futures market and the warehouse spot equivalent to 3,671 yuan/ton. The Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton, with the factory - warehouse spot equivalent to 3,536 yuan/ton on the futures market and the warehouse spot equivalent to 3,584 yuan/ton. The refinery operating rate was 47.22%, an increase of 4.63% compared to the previous period; the refinery inventory rate was 26.74%, an increase of 0.50% [3] Market News - **Capacity Utilization**: From September 18 - 24, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 40.1%, a month - on - month increase of 5.7%. This was mainly due to the resumption of asphalt production by Xinjiang Tianzhize, Henan Fengli, and Jiangsu Xinhai, along with the stable production of Shandong Shengxing, Dongming Petrochemical, and Qilu Petrochemical, despite intermittent shutdowns and production cuts at some refineries in East China [13] - **Shipment Volume**: From September 17 - 23, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 49.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.0%. Shandong saw the most significant increase due to increased supply and good downstream demand, while East China had the largest decrease because of intermittent production at major refineries and the preference for low - cost social inventory resources [13] - **Modified Asphalt Capacity Utilization**: From September 17 - 23, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt sample enterprises was 18.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3% and a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. Precipitation affected construction in Shandong and Henan, leading to a decline in demand for modified asphalt and a reduction in production in these regions, along with insufficient demand in the South [13]

摘要：【图】2025年5月云南省柴油产量数据分析 2025年5月柴油产量统计： 柴油产量：37.5 万吨 同比增长：7.5% 2025年1-5月柴油产量统计： 柴油产量：174.8 万吨 同比增长：8.5% 增速较上一年同期变化：高4.7个百分点 据统计，2025年1－5月，云南省规模以上工业企业柴油产量与上年同期相比增长了8.5%，达174.8万 吨，增速较上一年同期高4.7个百分点，继续保持增长，增速较同期全国高15.6个百分点，约占同期全国 规模以上企业柴油产量7924.8万吨的比重为2.2%。详见下图： 增速较上一年同期变化：高6.3个百分点 据统计，2025年5月云南省规模以上工业企业柴油产量与上年同期相比增长了7.5%，达37.5万吨，增速 较上一年同期高6.3个百分点，继续保持增长，增速较同期全国高14.9个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上 企业柴油产量1591.2万吨的比重为2.4%。 详见下图： 图2：云南省柴油产量分月（累计值）统计图 图1：云南省柴油产量分月（当月值）统计图 注：主要能源产品产量月度统计范围为规模以上工业法人单位，即年主营业务收入2000万元及以上的工 业企业。 产业调研网为 ...

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices are rising, leading to an increase in domestic fuel oil futures prices, driven by multiple factors including geopolitical tensions and supply concerns [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements - As of the midday close on September 24, the main 2601 contract rose by 3.70% to 2860 yuan/ton, while the 2510 contract surged by 5.45% to 2921 yuan/ton [1]. - The low-sulfur fuel oil main 2511 contract increased by 1.26% to 3387 yuan/ton [1]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Russia may limit fuel oil exports to secure domestic supply, amid concerns over potential disruptions in Russian oil supply due to geopolitical tensions [1][2]. - The ongoing drone attacks by Ukraine have reportedly caused Russia to lose approximately 300,000 barrels per day of refining capacity [1][2]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - High-sulfur fuel oil prices are experiencing a greater increase than low-sulfur fuel oil due to a higher risk premium associated with high-sulfur fuel oil [1][2]. - Russia's oil product exports fell to 1.94 million barrels per day in early September, the lowest since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [2]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that both high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil markets are facing tight supply conditions, with potential price support if crude oil supply does not increase and refinery maintenance is less than expected [2][3]. - Looking ahead to Q4, high-sulfur fuel oil may face increased supply and weakening demand, while low-sulfur fuel oil supply remains ample, necessitating close monitoring of market developments [3].

Group 1 - The company, Bohui Co., Ltd. (300839), primarily produces white oil, lubricating oil base oil, furnace fuel oil, and marine fuel oil [1]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for energy and chemicals showed a positive trend, with fuel oil futures experiencing a price increase of 3.95% during the trading session [1] - In August, China's bonded marine fuel oil imports were 489,600 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 23.88% but a year-on-year increase of 38.77% [1] - The export volume of bonded marine fuel oil in China for August was 1,643,200 tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 13% and a year-on-year increase of 6.02% [1] Group 2 - Geopolitical tensions and a decline in U.S. crude oil inventories have supported oil prices, enhancing cost support for petrochemical products [2] - Domestic refining capacity utilization has decreased due to maintenance at a key refinery, impacting supply [2] - Pre-holiday demand for downstream processing and marine fuel has increased, leading to a rise in both transaction volume and prices [2]

每经AI快讯，9月24日，港股山东墨龙(00568.HK)涨超8%，公司A股涨停。截至发稿，涨8.35%，报4.41 港元，成交额3.37亿港元。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - Supply side: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 36.3734%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points. The refineries reduced production this week, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - Demand side: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 34.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, flat month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 20.2298%, a month - on - month increase of 1.71 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 30.31%, a month - on - month increase of 1.69 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 36.57%, a month - on - month increase of 0.50 percentage points [7]. - Cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 556.31 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 706.6457 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.97%. The processing loss of asphalt decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term support is expected to weaken [8]. - Expectation: The refineries' recent production scheduling has reduced production, lowering supply pressure. The overall demand recovery stimulated by the peak season is lower than expected and sluggish; inventory is flat; with the weakening of crude oil, the cost support will weaken in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 3352 - 3394 [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: The refineries reduced production this week, but supply pressure may increase next week. In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1% [7]. - **Demand**: The current demand is lower than the historical average. Different types of asphalt and related product开工率 show mixed trends, with most below the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term support is expected to weaken [8]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 3352 - 3394 [9]. - **Lido**: The relatively high - level of crude oil cost provides some support [12]. - **Risks**: High - priced supply has insufficient demand; overall demand is declining, and the expectation of economic recession in Europe and the United States is strengthening. The main risk points are the change in crude oil price and the profit difference trend between asphalt and coking products [13][15]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Overview**: The prices of most asphalt contracts decreased, and the inventory of different types decreased. For example, the 01 contract price decreased by 1.14%, and the social inventory decreased by 2.88% [17]. - **Price Trends**: The report provides trends of asphalt basis, spreads between main contracts, asphalt - crude oil price, crude oil cracking spread, and the ratio of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [19][22][25]. - **Fundamental Analysis** - **Profit**: The asphalt profit and the profit difference between coking and asphalt show certain trends over time [37][40]. - **Supply**: It includes aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, price of Ma Rui crude oil and Venezuelan crude oil production, local refinery asphalt production,开工率, and maintenance loss [44][46][49]. - **Inventory**: It involves exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and factory inventory inventory ratio [64][68][71]. - **Import and Export**: The report shows the trends of asphalt export, import, and the import price difference of South Korean asphalt [74][77][79]. - **Demand**: It includes petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (such as highway construction investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment), downstream machinery demand, asphalt开工率, and downstream开工情况 [80][83][86]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: A monthly asphalt supply - demand balance table is provided, showing data such as monthly production, import, export, and inventory [106].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market shows mixed trends with production increasing, factory - warehouse inventory rising in some areas and social - warehouse inventory decreasing in others [13] - The asphalt price follows the oil price in a range - bound pattern, and regional spot price differences fluctuate downward [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For BU2511, the yesterday's closing price was 3,373 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.82%, and the night - session closing price was 3,399 yuan/ton with a 0.77% increase. The trading volume was 182,087 lots with an increase of 14,686 lots, and the open interest was 231,822 lots with a decrease of 4,519 lots. For BU2512, the yesterday's closing price was 3,320 yuan/ton with a 0.95% decline, and the night - session closing price was 3,347 yuan/ton with an 0.81% increase. The trading volume was 55,821 lots with an increase of 16,504 lots, and the open interest was 92,377 lots with an increase of 7,166 lots. The total market asphalt warehouse receipts were 58,120 lots with a decrease of 1,260 lots [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis (Shandong - 11) was 137 yuan/ton with a 28 - yuan increase from the previous day. The 11 - 12 inter - period spread was 53 yuan/ton with a 4 - yuan increase. The Shandong - South China spread remained unchanged at 10 yuan/ton, and the East China - South China spread was 70 yuan/ton with a 10 - yuan decrease [1] - **Spot Market Data**: The Shandong wholesale price was 3,510 yuan/ton with no change, and the Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,570 yuan/ton with a 10 - yuan decrease. As of September 22, the refinery operating rate was 47.22%, up 4.63% from September 18, and the refinery inventory rate was 26.74%, up 0.50% from September 18 [1] 2. Trend Intensity - The asphalt trend intensity is 1, indicating a neutral - to - slightly - strong trend (the range of trend intensity is [- 2,2], where - 2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish) [8] 3. Market Information - **Production**: From September 16 - 22, 2025, the weekly domestic asphalt production was 687,000 tons, a 10.1% increase from the previous week and a 41.9% increase year - on - year. The cumulative production from January to September was 22.837 million tons, a 12.3% increase year - on - year [13] - **Factory - Warehouse Inventory**: As of September 22, 2025, the total inventory of 54 asphalt sample factory warehouses was 698,000 tons, a 2.8% increase from September 18. The factory warehouses in Shandong had obvious inventory accumulation due to increased supply and affected by rainfall and weak terminal demand [13] - **Social - Warehouse Inventory**: As of September 22, 2025, the total inventory of 104 asphalt social warehouses was 1.57 million tons, a 2.1% decrease from September 18. The social warehouses in the Northeast and Southwest regions had obvious destocking. In the Northeast, it was due to the shortened terminal construction period and downstream rush - work demand, and in the Southwest, it was due to the sales of low - price goods [13]

Core Points - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that there will be no adjustment to gasoline and diesel prices as of September 23, due to the average price change being less than 50 yuan per ton compared to the previous period [1] - The three major oil companies, PetroChina, Sinopec, and CNOOC, along with other crude oil processing enterprises, are required to ensure stable supply and adhere to national pricing policies [1] - Local authorities are urged to enhance market supervision and strictly enforce compliance with national pricing policies to maintain normal market order [1]