Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 1.23% at 43,588.58 points, the S&P 500 down 1.60% at 6,238.01 points, and the Nasdaq down 2.24% at 20,650.13 points, marking the largest decline since April [3][4] - The U.S. stock market lost over $1 trillion in market capitalization due to investor concerns about economic prospects [3] Employment Data - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for July showed an increase of only 73,000 jobs, significantly below expectations, with the unemployment rate rising slightly to 4.2% [4][6] - Previous months' non-farm employment data were revised down sharply, with May's figures adjusted from 144,000 to just 19,000, and June's from 147,000 to 14,000 [4][6] Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Expectations - Following the weak employment data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September surged from less than 40% to nearly 90% [6] - The bond market saw a decline in U.S. Treasury yields across the board, with the 2-year yield down 6.76%, the 5-year down 5.13%, and the 10-year down 3.23% [5] Political Developments - President Trump called for the dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics director, citing concerns over inflated employment data ahead of the 2024 elections [8][11] - Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler announced her resignation effective August 8, which allows Trump to appoint a new member to the Federal Reserve Board earlier than expected [11]

美股崩了！ 当地时间8月1日，美股三大股指全线下跌。截至发稿，道指跌1.6%，纳指跌超2.3%，标普500指数跌超1.8%。全市超4500股下跌。 7月31日，美国总统特朗普签署行政命令，对多个国家和地区征收10%至41%不等的"对等关税"，并将生效期从8月1日推迟至8月7日。 除了"对等关税"外，特朗普曾预告将在未来几周推出药品、半导体、关键矿产及其他重要工业产品的单独关税，所以贸易不确定性风险料将持续存在。同 时，美国法院还在评估"对等关税"本身的合法性。 亚马逊市值蒸发超万亿元 美元闪崩，金价狂飙，油价大跌 8月1日，美股科技七巨头全线跳水，亚马逊一度跌超7%，市值蒸发1780亿美元（约合人民币1.28万亿元），英伟达跌超3%，市值蒸发超1400亿美元（约 合人民币1万亿元），Meta、特斯拉跌超2%，谷歌、微软、苹果均下跌。 美元指数闪崩，短时间内连续跌破100、99两大整数关口。 | 国际油价大跌，WTI和布伦特原油期货均跌超1.8%。 | | --- | 与此同时，国际金价直线拉升，纽约黄金期货涨超1.5%，站上3400美元。 金融咨询机构Camarco的Kim Heuacker解读称："下周随着 ...

Market Performance - On July 31, the Shanghai Composite Index closed down 1.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.73%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.66% with a total trading volume of 1.94 trillion yuan [1] - Sectors that saw gains included ground weaponry, components, and advertising marketing, while automation equipment, chemical pharmaceuticals, and other electronics experienced declines [1] ETF Performance - The Nasdaq Technology ETF (159509) led the market with a 2.38% increase, followed by the US 50 ETF (159577) at 2.17% and the US 50 ETF (513850) at 2.02% [2] - Other notable gainers included the Innovation ETF (1.88%), Nasdaq 100 ETF (513390) at 1.78%, and Nasdaq ETF (513300) at 1.62% [2] Economic Indicators - The US reached a tariff reciprocity agreement with multiple countries, including South Korea, reducing tariffs to 15%, thus avoiding potential trade conflicts [2] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates during the July meeting but did not rule out a rate cut in September, emphasizing a "data-dependent" approach, which provided liquidity expectations to the market [2] - The US GDP for Q2 rebounded to 3.0%, significantly exceeding previous values and forecasts, while July ADP employment added 104,000 jobs, indicating a strong economic recovery and enhancing confidence in a "soft landing" [2] Company Performance - Major tech companies reported strong earnings, with Meta's revenue increasing by 22% due to accelerated AI ad monetization, and Microsoft's Azure growing by 39% alongside a $100 billion AI investment, validating their profitability and AI commercialization capabilities [2]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Asian stock market is showing increased sensitivity to global macroeconomic data, particularly after key countries release economic data and central bank policy updates [1] - Recent performance indicates a 0.7% decline in the MSCI Asia Pacific (excluding Japan) index, although it is still on track for a fourth consecutive month of gains [1] - The decline is primarily attributed to underwhelming economic activity in certain Asian economies and significant fluctuations in commodity prices [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data for July in the region fell short of market expectations, indicating weakened business activity and raising concerns about the economic recovery outlook [1] - The Japanese yen strengthened following the Bank of Japan's decision to maintain interest rates while raising its annual inflation forecast, signaling a potential future interest rate hike [1] Group 3: U.S. Economic Context - The market is closely monitoring the trade agreement between the U.S. and South Korea, as well as the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy [5] - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates for the fifth consecutive time, with rare dissent from two members, indicating internal disagreements on the interest rate path [5] - Despite a stronger-than-expected GDP growth in the second quarter, core data suggests that economic momentum may be weakening [5] Group 4: Technology Sector Performance - Strong earnings reports from Microsoft and Meta have led to a 1.2% increase in Nasdaq futures and a 0.8% rise in S&P 500 futures, indicating robust profitability in large tech firms, particularly in cloud computing and AI advertising [6] - This performance provides positive support for the overall market [6] Group 5: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to closely monitor inflation and growth data from major economies, as uncertainty in monetary policy may lead to continued volatility in exchange rates and stock markets [6] - It is recommended that investors adjust their positions to manage risk exposure and capitalize on trading opportunities amid market fluctuations [6]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Decisions - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change [1] - The Fed's statement indicated a slowdown in U.S. economic growth in the first half of the year, suggesting potential grounds for future rate cuts if the trend continues [1] - Two Fed governors voted against the rate decision, reflecting external pressures, particularly from President Trump, who advocated for lower rates [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Fed Chair Powell stated it is too early to determine if a rate cut will occur in September, emphasizing the need for more economic information before making a decision [2] - Experts predict that the Fed may not cut rates until December, as inflation is expected to rise and economic growth to slow, indicating a cautious approach [3] Group 3: Market Reactions - Gold prices fell over 1.5%, dropping below $1,280 per ounce, with significant declines in U.S. gold and silver companies [4] - Major tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Nvidia rising over 2% and Apple declining more than 1% [5] - Several tech companies reported strong earnings, with Qualcomm's adjusted net profit at $2.67 billion (up 25%), Microsoft's net profit at $27.2 billion (up 24%), and META's net profit at $18.34 billion (up 36%) [6] Group 4: Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 1.82%, with many Chinese concept stocks experiencing declines, including NIO and New Oriental dropping over 4% [7] Group 5: Copper Market - Following President Trump's announcement of a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products, New York copper prices plummeted over 18% [8]

北京时间7月31日凌晨，美国联邦储备委员会结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之间不变。这一决定符合 市场预期，同时也是今年美联储货币政策会议连续第五次决定维持利率不变。 投票结果为9票赞成、2票反对，1位理事缺席未投票。其中，两张反对票来自由美国总统特朗普任命的两位理事——沃勒和鲍曼，他们倾向于支持降息25 个基点，与特朗普的诉求相呼应。这是自1993年以来，美联储理事首次有两名成员投反对票。 特朗普当天稍早前曾表示，维持高利率正在伤害民众，美联储应该降低利率。在利率决议公布前不久，特朗普还预测，美联储此次可能不会降息，但"听 说9月要降息"。美联储主席鲍威尔则强调，目前仍然存在不确定性，美联储尚未就9月会议做出任何决定。 美联储连续第五次维持利率不变 北京时间周四凌晨，美联储公布最新利率决议。联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）以9比2的投票结果，决定将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之 间不变。 其中，美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒和米歇尔·鲍曼投票反对该决定，支持降息25个基点。这是自1993年以来，美联储理事首次有两名成员投反对票。 联邦公开市场委 ...

Market Overview - On July 29, U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.46% to 44,632.99 points, the S&P 500 down 0.3% to 6,370.86 points, and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.38% to 21,098.29 points [2][3] - Major technology stocks mostly declined, with Meta down over 2%, Tesla and Apple down over 1%, while Google gained over 1% [3][4] Oil Prices - International oil prices surged significantly on July 29, with U.S. crude oil futures nearing $70 per barrel, closing with an increase of nearly 4% [10] - Brent crude oil also saw a rise of over 3.5% during the trading session [12] Airline and Banking Stocks - U.S. airline stocks fell across the board, with Southwest Airlines down 4.39%, Delta Air Lines down 1.99%, and United Airlines down 1.93% [4] - Most U.S. bank stocks declined, with Citigroup down 1.10%, Wells Fargo down 0.54%, and Bank of America down 0.52% [5] Chinese Concept Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 1.35%, with notable declines in stocks such as Xiaoma Zhixing and Kingsoft, which dropped over 8% [6] - Li Auto experienced significant volatility, initially rising over 6% before closing down more than 6% [7] - Other Chinese stocks like NIO and Xpeng also saw declines of over 2% [9]

Group 1 - The three major US stock indices collectively declined, with the Dow Jones falling by 0.42%, the Nasdaq decreasing by 0.38%, and the S&P 500 dropping by 0.28% [1] - Most popular technology stocks experienced a downturn, with Meta seeing a decline of over 2% [1]

Market Overview - The energy sector led the market with a nearly 1.5% increase, driven by a rebound in oil prices, with WTI crude rising 2.38% to $66.71 per barrel and Brent crude increasing 2.34% to $70.04 per barrel [8] - The S&P 500 index and Nasdaq index have risen approximately 28% and 40% respectively from their lows in April [5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.14% to close at 44,837.56 points, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.33% to 21,178.58 points, and the S&P 500 increased 0.02% to 6,389.77 points [3] Individual Stocks - Tesla shares rose 3.0% following the announcement of a $16.5 billion chip contract with Samsung Electronics [6] - Nike's stock increased by 3.8% after Morgan Stanley upgraded its rating from "neutral" to "overweight" [7] - Alibaba's shares rose 1.7%, while JD.com increased by 0.1%, but Baidu and NetEase saw declines of 1.5% and 2.6% respectively [4] Economic Indicators - The market is closely watching the June Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report and non-farm payroll data to assess the impact of tariffs on consumer prices and the labor market [6] - The Federal Reserve's upcoming policy meeting is anticipated to maintain stable interest rates, with a 60.4% probability of a rate cut in September according to the FedWatch tool [5]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming earnings reports from major tech giants Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Apple, and Amazon are crucial for maintaining the upward momentum of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices, which have recently reached historical highs. These companies collectively represent nearly 20% of the indices' weight, and their performance will provide key insights into the health of core business areas such as consumer electronics, AI applications, cloud computing, and e-commerce [1][3][4]. Group 1: Performance of Major Tech Giants - The "Magnificent Seven" tech giants, including Apple, Microsoft, Google, Tesla, Nvidia, Amazon, and Meta Platforms, are the primary drivers behind the recent highs in the S&P 500 index, accounting for approximately 35% of its weight [2][3]. - Since the beginning of 2023, these tech giants have been the strongest engines driving the U.S. stock market, leveraging their market advantages in AI to generate robust revenues and maintain strong fundamentals [2][3]. - The earnings reports from these companies must significantly exceed expectations to sustain the market's upward trend, as merely meeting expectations has proven insufficient for driving stock prices higher [3][4]. Group 2: Market Expectations and Valuations - The earnings growth rate for the "Magnificent Seven" in Q2 was 16%, which is below the 19% expected prior to the announcement of tariffs by the Trump administration [9][13]. - The overall expected annual earnings growth for the S&P 500 is 4.5%, significantly lower than the 7.5% predicted earlier in the year, indicating a downward adjustment in earnings expectations [13]. - High valuations and optimistic earnings forecasts place significant pressure on these tech companies to deliver strong performance and positive outlooks for the upcoming quarters [13][18]. Group 3: AI Investment and Market Dynamics - The demand for AI computing power is surging, with major tech companies expected to invest a total of $317 billion in capital expenditures this fiscal year, a 35% increase from the already strong spending in 2024 [17]. - Companies like Nvidia, which dominate the AI computing power sector, are expected to continue benefiting from this trend, with their stock prices likely to reflect ongoing bullish market conditions [16][17]. - There is a notable divergence in stock performance among the "Magnificent Seven," with companies like Meta, Microsoft, and Nvidia benefiting significantly from AI, while others like Apple, Tesla, and Amazon struggle to keep pace with market expectations [14][15].