Core Insights - The Hainan Prefecture Cultural, Sports, Tourism and Broadcasting Bureau is taking proactive measures to ensure the safety and stability of the tourism market as the "May Day" holiday and peak travel season approach, amid increasing risks of personnel flow and gatherings [1] Regulatory Actions - Targeted regulation is being implemented to strictly investigate market violations, focusing on issues like "unreasonably low-priced tours" through surprise inspections and big data monitoring to ensure precise and efficient law enforcement [1] - A comprehensive inspection of emergency plans, fire safety facilities, and duty management is being conducted across all operating units to prepare for the expected surge in visitors during the "May Day" peak [3] Joint Enforcement - Special inspections are being carried out in key areas such as the tourism passenger transport market, dining, and accommodation along the southern shore of Qinghai Lake, ensuring compliance with operational qualifications and safety standards for transport vehicles and drivers [4] - Law enforcement actions are combined with educational outreach to enhance safety awareness among tourism operators and staff [4] Service Quality Enhancement - The industry service standards are being promoted to address issues related to tour guide explanations and hotel services, with a 24-hour response mechanism established to efficiently handle tourist complaints [6] - The bureau has mobilized 330 law enforcement personnel and inspected 210 business locations, addressing complaints and issuing promotional materials to improve market regulation [6]

Core Points - The article discusses the implementation of a new tax refund policy for international travelers in China, allowing for immediate refunds at the point of sale, which enhances the shopping experience and stimulates consumer spending [1][2] - The policy aims to simplify the traditional tax refund process, which was often cumbersome and deterred foreign tourists from making purchases [1] - The initial results of the policy have shown significant increases in sales and tax refunds in cities like Chengdu, with sales and refunds growing by 270% and 225% respectively in the first quarter of 2025 [1] Group 1 - The "immediate refund" service allows international travelers to receive tax refunds on-site after making purchases, significantly improving the shopping experience [1] - The policy has been expanded from pilot locations to nationwide implementation, indicating a strategic move to boost the inbound consumption market [1][2] - The new tax refund process has led to a notable increase in the number of international travelers engaging in tax refunds, with transaction volumes also rising dramatically [1] Group 2 - The policy is expected to stimulate related industries such as accommodation, dining, and transportation, thereby enhancing overall economic vitality [2] - Challenges in implementing the policy include the need for stores to adopt a tax refund management system and coordinate with local tax agencies, but these issues are being addressed through improved regulatory measures [2] - The introduction of policies like visa exemptions and immediate refunds reflects China's commitment to high-level openness and aims to attract more international visitors, fostering cultural exchange and economic cooperation [2]

贾东旭 高级宏观分析师 侯倩楠 宏观分析师 联系人： 贾东旭 报告正文 事件：中共中央政治局4月25日召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势。 下一步政策如何定？"坚定不移办好自己的事"，"根据形势变化及时推出增量储备政策"。 会议对外部风险保持高度警惕，对内强调"办好自己的事"的战略定力，将"稳就业"置于"四稳"之首。 针对 当前国际形势，政治局会议首次采用"国际经贸斗争"表述，与"反腐败斗争"措辞一致。在外部环境高度不确 定背景下，会议聚焦内部高质量发展，强调"坚定不移办好自己的事"，"着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳 预期"。 政策工具箱将呈现灵活性与超常规双重特征，会议提出"根据形势变化及时推出增量储备政策，加强超常规 逆周期调节"。 鉴于美国关税政策不确定性加剧对我国经济预测的扰动，叠加会议"强化底线思维，备足政 策预案"的要求，预计后续政策将密切跟踪高频经济数据边际变化，在波动窗口期适时加大调节力度，确保 经济运行在合理区间。 宏观政策有何新动向？财政政策加快债务发行和使用，货币政策创设新的结构性工具。 会议要求强化政策执行效率，明确提出"加紧实施"，"既定政策早出台早见效"。 一方面，政治局会议敦促 既定 ...

截至2025年4月20日，中泰资管风险系统对各大资本市场的系统评分情况如下： 沪深300指数的中泰资管风险系统评分为45.53，较上月47.51略有下降，市场情绪出现一定波动，整体风险 评分仍处于中等偏低风险区间。 沪深300估值较上月有所下降（本月38.93，上月45.01），显示出市场整体估值水平有所回落。从行业分布 来看，部分前期估值较高的行业如电子、计算机等，估值有所调整，而部分防御性板块或低估值板块的估 值相对稳定。 行业间估值分化有所减小。 目前，28个申万一级行业中钢铁、房地产、国防军工、计算机 的行业估值高于历史60%分位数；农林牧渔、纺织服装、公共事业、非银金融等行业的估值低于历史10% 分位数。 市场整体估值的调整，有超预期的关税冲击的影响，也反映了市场对经济复苏节奏和企业盈利 预期的重新评估。 市场预期分数较上月有所下降（本月48.00，上月56.00）。分析师认为，政策层面持续发力，财政政策和 货币政策协同配合，为经济复苏提供了有力支持。财政方面，当月地方基建支出有所改善，土地市场的恢 复虽不均衡，但政府债发行提速，继续支撑政府性基金支出。预计二季度财政仍将保持积极。但全球经济 复苏的 ...

（供稿人：祖丽皮耶 夏清泉） 文旅部门着重对旅游相关经营单位的资质和服务规范进行了检查，确保其合法合规经营，为游客提供优 质服务；应急部门对各场所的应急预案制定与演练情况进行了督导，提升应对突发事件的能力；电力部 门则对用电设施设备进行了全面排查，保障经营场所用电安全。 通过此次多部门联合检查，进一步强化了各经营主体的责任意识，及时发现并整改了一批安全隐患和不 规范经营行为。接下来，裕民县将持续加大市场监管力度，建立健全长效监管机制，以更加饱满的热情 和扎实的工作，迎接八方游客，让游客在裕民县度过一个愉快、安心的旅程，为裕民县旅游产业的高质 量发展保驾护航。 随着旅游旺季的临近，塔城地区裕民县即将迎来大批游客。为切实保障游客的消费安全与权益，营造安 全有序的旅游市场环境，塔城地区裕民县市场监督管理局紧密结合"实干争先年"活动精神，在县级领导 的高度重视与指导下，由局长亲自带队，联合文旅、应急管理局、电力等多部门，于4月23日开展了针 对住宿、餐饮、商超等重点领域的联合检查行动。 此次检查覆盖了县城内多家主要酒店、餐馆以及大型商超。在住宿方面，重点检查了消防安全设施是否 完备有效，如消防器材配备、疏散通道畅通情 ...

NOMURA 野村东方国际证券 一分钟了解日本 -日本"情绪消费"产业 上期我们介绍了在日本经济转型期下应运而生的三类"情绪消 费"。本期. 我们进一步探索在年轻人这三类情绪消费下衍生出 来的细分产业及产品。 特色住宿产业 Emo和Chill消费 "废校民宿"等 改造酒店兴起,利 即时成像相机 用老旧建筑打造 差异化体验 拍立得在手机拍 照冲击下,借助 户外运动产业 情怀与韩流再度 热销 骑行、登山露营 市场持续增长, "Solo 露营"愈 反能量饮料产业 发流行 内容来源 本内容根据野村东方国际证券2025年1月22日发布的证券研究报告《日本新消费研究之现象篇：情绪、情感和自我满足》 分析师 张影秋 （SAC执证编号：S1720522110001） 曾万霖 （SAC执证编号：S1720524050001） 往期推文回顾 一分钟了解日本｜日本"情绪消费"新潮流 本材料虽由野村东方国际证券有限公司（以下简称"本公司"或"我们"）研究部提供，但并非我们发布的证券 研究报告，仅系我们根据本公司已正式发布的研究报告内容制作。我们不保证本材料内容、观点、文字与正 式出具的研究报告保持完整性、一致性，您应通过查阅本公司正 ...

Manufacturing PMI Insights - The official manufacturing PMI for February 2025 is recorded at 50.2%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a return above the growth threshold[1] - The average manufacturing PMI for the first two months of 2025 is 49.7%, lower than the average of 50.2% in the last quarter of 2024, suggesting a weaker manufacturing sentiment compared to seasonal norms[1] - The production index and new orders index for February are 52.5% and 51.1%, respectively, indicating that production is expanding faster than demand[2] Economic Trends and Risks - The new export orders index stands at 48.6%, reflecting a slight recovery but still indicating potential risks in external demand due to uncertainties in trade policies[2] - There is a notable divergence in sentiment among manufacturing enterprises, with large enterprises showing a PMI of 52.5%, while medium and small enterprises are at 49.2% and 46.3%, respectively, highlighting a reliance on large firms for recovery[2] - The manufacturing price indices indicate a potential narrowing of PPI declines, with the output price index at 48.5% and the main raw material purchase price index at 50.8%[2] Overall Economic Outlook - The comprehensive PMI average for the first two months of 2025 is 50.6%, down from 51.3% in the last quarter of 2024, suggesting a slower economic recovery trajectory[6] - The construction PMI for February is 52.7%, showing a strong recovery post-holiday, while the service sector PMI is at 50.0%, indicating a decline[5] - The overall economic sentiment remains cautious, with the need for further policy support for small and medium enterprises highlighted as crucial for sustained recovery[2]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI for February returned above the threshold, indicating a relatively good state of manufacturing prosperity, with the average PMI for January and February overall better than in 2024 [1][3] Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing PMI for February is 50.2%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, and 0.1 percentage points lower than the average of the past five years [2][3] - The average PMI for January and February is 49.65%, which is higher than the 49.15% in the same period of 2024, reflecting a better recent manufacturing climate [3] Economic Supply and Demand - Both supply and demand sides of the economy are performing well in the short term, with a potential short-term rebound in PPI readings [4] - The production index for February is 52.5%, up 2.7 percentage points from last month, and the average operating rate for six major industrial sectors is 71.0%, which is 2.0 percentage points higher than the same period in 2024 [4] Sector Performance - Among 15 major manufacturing industries, 7 have PMIs above the threshold, with the equipment manufacturing sector performing relatively well, such as electrical machinery at 57.1% and automotive manufacturing at 53.1% [5] - Conversely, some low-value-added industries are underperforming, such as non-metallic mineral products at 43.4% and petroleum processing at 42.6% [5] Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing PMI for February is 50.4%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, driven mainly by seasonal recovery in the construction industry [6] - The service sector PMI decreased to 50.0%, while the construction PMI increased to 52.7%, indicating a seasonal rebound in construction activities post-Spring Festival [6] Future Economic Outlook - The overall economic performance is benefiting from previous consumption-boosting policies, tariff expectations, and the concentrated issuance of special bonds in the fourth quarter [7] - Future attention should be paid to the details of macro policies from the Two Sessions, the effects of consumption promotion on large items, and the impact of tariffs on exports [7]

报 告 正 文 2 月制造业 PMI 重返线上，供需双升，价格上行；非制造业商务活动指数线上扩张，服务业回落至临界点， 建筑业线上回升，其中土木工程建筑业升幅较大。 PMI 表现如何？制造业方面， 2 月全国制造业 PMI 录得 50.2% ，较上月回升 1.1 个百分点，重返扩张区间。 1-2 月制造业 PMI 录得 49.7% ，高于去年同期及过去五年同期均值水平。春节过后，制造业陆续复工复产， 市场需求普遍回升，生产采购活动明显增长，原材料价格有所回升，产成品价格降势收窄，大型企业支撑作用 稳步加强，企业预期较为乐观。 非制造业方面 ， 2 月非制造业商务活动指数保持线上扩张，其中，随着春节 后陆续开工复工，建筑业商务活动指数升至扩张区间，其中土木工程建筑业商务活动指数升至为 65.1% ，表 明节后基础设施项目建设施工进度加快；不过受节前集中采买，节后假日效应消退等因素影响，与居民消费相 关的零售、住宿、餐饮等行业商务活动指数回落较为明显， 2 月服务业商务活动指数回落至临界点。 此外，有三点值得关注 ： 一是剔除春节效应来看制造业 PMI 仍高于去年 。本月 PMI 回升虽然受到 1 月提前 放假导 ...