2025年的互联网江湖，最让人跌破眼镜的商战，不是阿里和拼多多的价格厮杀，也不是抖音和快手的流量争夺，而是京东和美团这对看似"井水不犯河水"的 巨头，突然在即时零售的战场上开始厮杀。 谁能想到，当年在电商和本地生活领域各占山头的两位大佬，如今竟为了"30分钟送达"的生意争得头破血流？ 这场商战的戏剧性，甚至让围观群众忍不住调侃："原来最怕京东的，不是淘宝拼多多，而是美团啊！" 故事要从2025年2月11日说起，那天，京东突然宣布上线"京东外卖"，承诺商家全年免佣金，还高调宣布为全职骑手缴纳五险一金。 你可能不知道的是，京东和美团的恩怨，远比外卖业务更复杂。 消息一出，美团港股股价应声下跌7%。 表面上看，这是一场京东主动发起的"突袭战"，但实际上，这场战争的伏笔早在几年前就已埋下。 当消费者发现凌晨两点能在美团上买到手机时，京东的危机感彻底爆发了。 京东想靠外卖赚钱吗？答案可能是否定的，业内分析认为，京东这波操作更像是一场"声东击西"的阴谋。 外卖业务本身利润率低（美团外卖净利率仅2.8%），且市场已被美团和饿了么瓜分殆尽。 2018年，美团推出打车业务，直捣滴滴腹地。 京东的"0佣金"和"百亿补贴"看似激进 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of shareholder meetings as a platform for communication between shareholders and management, highlighting the need for transparency and strategic direction [1][2] - At the 2025 Meituan shareholder meeting, three significant signals were released: the proposal for share buybacks and issuance authorization, indicating a strategic balance between rewarding current shareholders and preparing for future opportunities [1][2][5] - The company aims to stabilize stock prices through buybacks while retaining the option to issue new shares for future growth, reflecting a cautious yet optimistic approach towards new business investments [2][4] Group 2 - The board re-election and compensation mechanisms were discussed, with independent directors being nominated for re-election, suggesting a focus on governance and stability within the management structure [5][6] - The revision of the company’s articles of association included provisions for online participation and electronic voting, enhancing shareholder engagement and inclusivity [8][9] - The emphasis on diversity in the nomination committee's responsibilities indicates a shift towards valuing varied perspectives in decision-making, which is crucial for innovation and adaptability [8][9] Group 3 - Meituan is at a critical juncture, needing to explore new growth avenues as its core local business revenue growth shows signs of slowing down, with 2024 core local business revenue projected at 250.2 billion yuan, accounting for 74.11% of total revenue [11][12] - The company faces challenges such as market saturation, increased regulatory scrutiny, and intensified competition, necessitating a shift towards new business models to sustain growth [12][13] - Meituan is actively exploring various new business lines, including community group buying and instant retail, which show potential for growth despite current losses [14][15] Group 4 - The company is also investing in technology innovations, such as autonomous delivery systems and AI-driven services, signaling a commitment to enhancing operational efficiency and user experience [17][26] - Meituan's global expansion efforts are beginning to take shape, with international business becoming a potential growth area, although challenges related to cultural differences and local regulations remain [18][24][27] - The strategic shift from prioritizing scale to focusing on efficiency reflects a mature approach to business management, aiming to optimize costs and enhance value creation [25][27]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant market opportunity in lower-tier cities, particularly for local businesses leveraging digital marketing through platforms like Douyin, highlighting the potential for growth and the challenges faced by local merchants in adapting to online operations [3][14]. Market Size and Untapped Local Demand - Douyin's monthly active users have reached 1 billion, with 54.7% of users from third-tier cities and below, indicating a vast market potential for local businesses [3][9]. - The average daily usage time on Douyin is over 1.55 hours, suggesting that users in lower-tier cities may spend even more time on the platform due to their relatively simple lifestyles [7][10]. - Lower-tier cities account for approximately 70% of the population, with county economies contributing to 38% of the national GDP, showcasing the economic significance of these markets [13]. Low Competition Intensity Among Local Businesses - Many local businesses in lower-tier cities rely on traditional operating methods and have not fully embraced online marketing, leading to a significant gap in online group-buying offerings [14][15]. - The competition in these markets is characterized by a lack of awareness and willingness among local merchants to adopt online strategies, creating a competitive advantage for those who do [16][17]. Unique "Micro-Innovation" Opportunities in Small Markets - Local businesses only need to master basic online operations to outperform the majority of their competitors, as the overall competition is still in its infancy [20][22]. - The penetration rate for local life services via group buying is only 38.4%, indicating substantial room for growth and the potential for new market entrants to thrive [22][23]. Strategies for Local Businesses - Local businesses can succeed by implementing three key strategies: 1. Setting up group-buying offers on Douyin with simple operational steps [21]. 2. Regularly posting engaging content related to their services to attract local customers [21]. 3. Building community engagement through social media to foster customer loyalty and repeat business [21].

我们把视角拉回机会和红利层面。上个月，我回了一趟老家小县城，这是一座只有10万人口、电子支付普及、但一半电影票仍通过前台售出的山西北部小 县城。我表姐夫找到我，想让我帮他在抖音团购，上架他新开的台球社。 我检索了一下，在抖音的搜索结果里，县城只有2家台球厅设置了抖音团购，销量400+。而表姐夫新开的台球社，在没发布短视频导流的情况下，上线当 天，就售出2单。 我意识到，无论是在市场体量维度，还是在竞争维度，抖音本地生活都给县城商家带来了极大的机会。 这可能是一个时间窗口长达10-18个月的市场机会，当然换个角度讲，这也是县城本地商家新一轮淘换战的序章。迈过去，就有了数字营销的新入场券； 迈不过去，兴许在这一波浪潮中，一些县城的门店就要凋零消亡。 根据QuestMobile和开源证券的数据，抖音的月活跃用户已经高达10.01亿，其中，三线及以下城市用户，占比为54.7%，这意味着，对于县城的本地生活 商家来说，有一大片巨大的市场红利等待挖掘。而且最关键的是，由于市场发展的滞后性和县城经济本身的特性，对于走在数字营销前列的商家来说，竞 争的烈度也并不大，能够比较容易脱颖而出。 一、庞大的市场体量与未被充分开发的本 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" for Meituan-W (3690) [1][9]. Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the core local business operating profit increased by 39% year-on-year, indicating strong performance despite anticipated profit fluctuations in Q2 due to competitive pressures in the food delivery sector. However, long-term competitive barriers remain solid [3][8]. - The company plans to invest 100 billion RMB over the next three years to enhance its ecosystem, which is expected to improve user engagement and frequency of purchases, particularly among mid-to-high frequency users [8][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue for Q1 2025 reached 86.56 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 18.1%, with adjusted net profit of 10.949 billion RMB, up 46.2% year-on-year. The operating profit margin improved by 5.1 percentage points to 12.2% [8]. - The core local business generated revenue of 64.325 billion RMB in Q1 2025, reflecting a 17.8% year-on-year increase, while operating profit rose by 39.1% to 13.491 billion RMB, with an operating profit margin of 21.0% [8]. - The financial projections for 2025-2027 have been adjusted, with expected revenues of 393 billion, 459 billion, and 536 billion RMB respectively, and adjusted net profits of 41.8 billion, 53.9 billion, and 68.5 billion RMB [9][12]. Valuation Methodology - The report employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, assigning a 20x PE ratio to the core local business and a 0.5x PS ratio to new businesses, resulting in a target price of 177 HKD for Meituan-W [9][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690) is "Buy" (maintained) [2][7]. Core Views - Meituan, as a leader in local lifestyle services, is expected to maintain its core competitive advantages despite short-term competition in the food delivery sector. The company is projected to achieve revenues of CNY 390.41 billion, CNY 445.04 billion, and CNY 507.46 billion in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.65%, 13.99%, and 14.03% [2][7]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, Meituan's revenue increased by 18.1% year-on-year to CNY 86.557 billion, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates by 1.3%. Non-IFRS net profit rose by 46.2% to CNY 10.948 billion, also above expectations by 12.56% [6]. - The core local business revenue grew by 17.8% to CNY 64.325 billion, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus by 1.49%. Operating profit increased by 39.1% to CNY 13.491 billion, exceeding expectations by 10.21% [6]. - New business revenue rose by 19.2% to CNY 22.232 billion, also above consensus by 1.54%, with operating losses reduced by 17.54% to CNY -2.273 billion [6]. Expense Management - Sales expenses increased by 11.96% to CNY 15.55 billion, primarily due to promotional and advertising costs. The sales expense ratio decreased by 1 percentage point to 18% due to improved operational efficiency [6]. - R&D expenses rose by 15.44% to CNY 5.772 billion, reflecting increased investment in AI, while the R&D expense ratio slightly decreased by 0.16 percentage points to 6.67% [6]. Business Segments - The food delivery segment is expected to see healthy growth with significant investments planned for the next three years, totaling over CNY 100 billion to support various merchants [6]. - The flash purchase segment continues to show strong growth, particularly in low-tier markets, with a significant increase in order volume during key promotional periods [6]. - The in-store travel segment is experiencing robust growth in lower-tier markets, with the launch of a membership program aimed at increasing transaction frequency and cross-selling efficiency [6]. Future Outlook - For Q2 2025, the company is expected to maintain its core advantages and solidify its platform ecosystem, despite potential short-term profit fluctuations due to intensified competition in the food delivery sector [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690) is "Buy" (maintained) [2][7]. Core Views - Meituan, as a leader in local lifestyle services, is expected to maintain its core competitive advantages despite short-term competition in the food delivery sector. The company is projected to achieve revenues of CNY 390.41 billion, CNY 445.04 billion, and CNY 507.46 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.65%, 13.99%, and 14.03% [2][7]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, Meituan's revenue increased by 18.1% year-on-year to CNY 86.557 billion, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates by 1.3%. Non-IFRS net profit rose by 46.2% to CNY 10.948 billion, also surpassing expectations by 12.56% [6]. - The core local business revenue grew by 17.8% year-on-year to CNY 64.325 billion, with operating profit increasing by 39.1% to CNY 13.491 billion, both exceeding consensus estimates [6]. - New business revenue increased by 19.2% year-on-year to CNY 22.232 billion, with operating losses reduced by 17.54% to CNY -2.273 billion, outperforming expectations [6]. Expense Management - Sales expenses rose by 11.96% year-on-year to CNY 15.55 billion, primarily due to increased promotional and advertising costs. The sales expense ratio decreased by 1 percentage point to 18% due to improved operational efficiency [6]. - R&D expenses increased by 15.44% year-on-year to CNY 5.772 billion, driven by increased investments in AI. The R&D expense ratio slightly decreased by 0.16 percentage points to 6.67% [6]. Business Segments - The food delivery segment is expected to see healthy growth with a focus on refined operations, supported by a planned investment of CNY 100 billion over the next three years [6]. - The flash purchase segment continues to show strong growth, particularly in low-tier markets, with significant increases in order volume during promotional periods [6]. - The in-store travel segment is experiencing robust growth in lower-tier markets, with the launch of the "Meituan Membership" program aimed at enhancing transaction frequency and cross-selling efficiency [6]. Future Outlook - For Q2 2025, the company is expected to maintain its core advantages and solidify its platform ecosystem, despite potential short-term profit fluctuations due to intensified competition in the food delivery sector [6].

Core Insights - Meituan achieved operating revenue of 86.6 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 18% [1] - Adjusted net profit reached 10.9 billion yuan, up 46% year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 13%, an increase of 3 percentage points [1] - The core local business generated revenue of 64.3 billion yuan, also up 18% year-on-year, with an operating profit of 13.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 39% increase [1] Local Business Performance - The restaurant delivery, flash purchase, and in-store travel businesses saw revenue growth of 14%, 33%, and 19% respectively [1] - The average order value (AOV) continued to decline at a reduced rate, while the take rate for restaurant delivery increased due to growth in delivery and advertising revenue [1] - The company plans to increase subsidies in Q2 2025 to address competition, with projected order volume growth of 9% and revenue growth of 5% [1] Flash Purchase Business - Flash purchase order volume grew by 30% year-on-year, with a record high profit margin [2] - Revenue from flash purchase commissions and advertising increased by approximately 33% [2] - The company is expanding its instant delivery network in various product categories and plans to increase subsidies during the 618 shopping festival [2] In-store Business - The in-store travel business's gross transaction value (GTV) grew by 33%, with revenue increasing by 21% year-on-year [3] - The company is focusing on expanding in lower-tier cities and enhancing its membership program to increase transaction frequency [3] - Future membership benefits will cover more categories, aiming to strengthen Meituan's position as a preferred platform for consumers [3] New Business Developments - New business revenue grew by 19% to 22.2 billion yuan, although operating losses increased to 2.3 billion yuan [3] - The company is actively expanding its overseas delivery services, particularly in Saudi Arabia and plans to enter the Brazilian market with a commitment of 1 billion USD over five years [3] Investment Outlook - The company maintains an "outperform the market" rating, with adjusted net profit estimates of 44.7 billion, 58.7 billion, and 71.8 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [4] - Despite increased competition, the company's operational capabilities and compliance improvements are expected to support long-term growth [4] - The valuation is considered attractive compared to the Hang Seng Technology sector, with potential for upward catalysts from dynamic competition [4]

Group 1 - The "Su Super" league in Jiangsu is significantly boosting the local consumption market [1] - Recent data from Meituan shows that the search volume for the "Su Super League" keyword has surged over 16 times compared to the previous week [1] - The cities of Suzhou, Wuxi, Changzhou, Nanjing, and Yancheng have the highest search interest in Jiangsu province [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Insights - The core local business of Meituan has shown excellent profit release, with a revenue of 86.6 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing an 18% year-on-year growth. Adjusted net profit reached 10.9 billion yuan, up 46% year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 13%, an increase of 3 percentage points [1][9][19] - The company is expected to increase subsidies starting Q2 2025 to respond to competition, with projected order volume growth of 9% and revenue growth of 5% in the same period [2][19] - The flash purchase business saw a 30% year-on-year increase in order volume in Q1 2025, with a historical high profit margin, and the company plans to increase subsidies during the 618 shopping festival to expand market reach [3][22] - The in-store business GTV grew by 33% in Q1 2025, with a revenue increase of 21% year-on-year, and the company is actively expanding in lower-tier cities [4][23] - New business revenue grew by 19% year-on-year to 22.2 billion yuan, with a focus on expanding overseas delivery services, particularly in Saudi Arabia and plans to enter the Brazilian market [27] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, Meituan's core local business achieved a revenue of 64.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 18%. The operating profit for this segment was 13.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 39% increase year-on-year and an operating profit margin of 21% [1][17] - The company forecasts adjusted net profits of 44.7 billion yuan, 58.7 billion yuan, and 71.8 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 16.6, 12.6, and 10.3 [7][29] - The adjusted EPS is projected to be 7.14 yuan for 2024, increasing to 9.50 yuan by 2027 [8][32]