证券研究报告 食品饮料 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 15 日 白酒处于调整期，零食景气度较高 ——食品饮料行业 2024 年报和 2025 一季报综述 华龙证券研究所 投资评级：推荐（维持） 最近一年走势 执业证书编号：S0230520050001 邮箱：wangf@hlzq.com 复—食品饮料行业周报》2025.03.18 《政策积极，静待复苏—食品饮料行业 周报》2025.03.05 《促消费政策积极，关注需求修复边际 改善—食品饮料行业周报》2025.02.17 摘要： 请认真阅读文后免责条款 请认真阅读文后免责条款 1 公司研究报告 2025Q1 食品饮料行业营收和归母净利润增速较 2024 年趋缓。食 品饮料行业业绩分化加剧，子行业来看，白酒业绩实现稳健增长， 软饮料、零食行业上市公司营收和归母净利润同比增幅居前。 分析师：王芳 相关阅读 《育儿补贴政策催化，关注乳品估值修 白酒处于筑底阶段，零食行业延续较高景气度。2025Q1 白酒上 市公司整体营收和归母净利润实现小个位数增长，增速低于 2024 年。高端白酒盈利能力稳健，具备韧性；次高端价格带内部延续 分化趋势，山西汾酒表现较好；地产酒 ...

Group 1 - China State Construction signed new contracts totaling 1.52 trillion yuan from January to April, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [1] - Yongpu Medical's subsidiary obtained a medical device business license valid until May 7, 2030, allowing it to engage in medical device retail and wholesale [1] - Ningbo Maritime received a government subsidy of 4.42 million yuan, which will impact its net profit for the fiscal year 2025 [1] Group 2 - Mingpu Optoelectronics obtained a patent for a magnetic powder core and its preparation method, enhancing its capabilities in magnetic materials technology [1] - Digital Zhitong plans to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary in Beijing with a registered capital of 5 million yuan [1] - Zhongmin Energy's shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 0.28% of the company's total shares [1][6] Group 3 - Tunnel Holdings' controlling shareholder intends to increase its stake in the company by investing between 250 million to 500 million yuan [1] - China Telecom appointed Liu Guiqing as the new President and COO [1] - Datang Power completed the issuance of 3 billion yuan in medium-term notes, with proceeds aimed at repaying debt and supplementing working capital [1] Group 4 - *ST Weihai won a bid for a flood control project worth 182 million yuan, accounting for 7.35% of its audited revenue for 2024 [1] - Huijin Tong announced a cash dividend of 0.0868 yuan per share, totaling 29.44 million yuan [1] - Xinkai Energy's shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by a combined total of 4% of the company's shares [1][39] Group 5 - Xinhuan Group's subsidiary won a 1.02 billion yuan nuclear power project contract [1] - Southern Airlines reported a 12.14% year-on-year increase in passenger turnover for April [1] - Xinjiang Torch plans to acquire 100% equity of Yushan Litai for 125 million yuan [1]

Group 1: Dairy Industry Insights - The brands Jindian and Anmuxi have recently gained significant attention due to their innovative marketing strategies, with Jindian focusing on "long-termism" and emotional storytelling through a documentary short film featuring a farmer's 20-year relationship with his cows [3] - Anmuxi employs a strategy centered on "emotional symbolism reconstruction," utilizing a popular figure to create a strong association between their product and positive emotional experiences, particularly targeting Gen Z consumers [3] Group 2: Beverage and Dining Sector Developments - The beverage brand Mixue Ice City has successfully gone public in Hong Kong, leveraging its mascot "Snow King" to enhance brand visibility and engage consumers during the listing ceremony, resulting in increased user discussions and product purchases [4] - Haidilao celebrated its 31st anniversary with a series of events themed around "happy socializing," including a brand film that connects the brand with social emotional relief, and interactive activities across over 1300 stores to foster user engagement and emotional resonance [4] Group 3: Consumer Index and Market Trends - The "Consumer Index Evaluation System" developed by Shiyan Index includes various rankings such as "Brand Consumption Hot Index" and "Industry Consumption Heat Index," aimed at objectively presenting trends in the consumer market to assist brands in tracking market dynamics [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "in line with the market," indicating that the industry index is expected to fluctuate between -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [49]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector has shown resilience, with the food and beverage index slightly declining but outperforming the market. In April 2025, the index had a range of -0.23%, while the CSI 300 index declined by 3% [4][6]. - The sector's valuation has increased but remains at a historically low level, with a valuation of 22.18 times as of April 30, 2025, reflecting an 11.35% increase from March [13][21]. - The performance of individual stocks within the sector has improved, with a notable increase in the number of rising stocks, particularly in snacks, dairy, and soft drinks [18][4]. - Investment in the food and beverage manufacturing sector has continued to grow significantly, with fixed asset investments in food manufacturing up 18% year-on-year as of March 2025, compared to a 4.2% increase in overall social fixed asset investment [21][4]. - Domestic production of various consumer goods has shown mixed results, with some categories like wine and beer continuing to decline, while fresh and frozen meat production has increased [24][25][27]. - Import trends indicate a significant decrease in the quantities of corn and wheat, while imports of high-end dairy products have surged, suggesting a recovery in domestic dairy inventory [29][31][32]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The food and beverage index outperformed the market, with a cumulative increase of 0.5% from January to April 2025, surpassing the CSI 300 index by approximately 2.9 percentage points [7][4]. - In April 2025, the snack sector rose by 32.45%, soft drinks by 12.67%, and dairy by 6.26%, while other alcoholic beverages saw a slight increase of 5.45% [6][4]. 2. Valuation - As of April 30, 2025, the food and beverage sector's valuation was 22.18 times, which is still lower than 16 other sectors, indicating potential for growth [13][21]. 3. Stock Performance - In April 2025, 67 out of 127 listed companies in the food and beverage sector saw their stock prices rise, with significant gains in the snack and dairy segments [18][4]. 4. Investment Trends - The food and beverage manufacturing sector has maintained high investment growth, with fixed asset investments significantly outpacing overall social investment growth [21][4]. 5. Production and Imports - Domestic production of essential consumer goods has shown a trend of decline in categories like wine and beer, while fresh meat production has increased [24][25][27]. - Import data reveals a sharp decline in corn and wheat imports, while high-end dairy product imports have increased, indicating a shift in domestic consumption patterns [29][31][32]. 6. Pricing Trends - Prices for various raw materials, including milk and vegetable oils, have shown a downward trend, while some packaging materials have seen price increases [33][34][35]. 7. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in sectors such as liquor, soft drinks, dairy, beer, and snacks, with a specific stock portfolio suggested for May 2025 [44][46].

公司报告 | 年报点评报告 香飘飘（603711） 证券研究报告 冲泡加快去库、果茶动能良好 24 年业绩分拆：24 年营业收入 32.87 亿元，同比-9.32%；归母净利 2.53 亿 元，同比-9.67%；扣非净利 2.18 亿元，同比-5.82%。24Q4 营业收入 13.49 亿元，同比-18.06%；归母净利 2.35 亿元，同比-14.94%；扣非净利 2.23 亿 元，同比-17.67%。25Q1 营业收入 5.80 亿元，同比-19.98%；归母净利-0.19 亿元，由盈转亏。分红率 41%，同比-10pct。 冲泡去库存承压，果茶增长势头靓丽。 分产品看：24 年冲泡类/即饮收入 22.71/9.73 亿元，同比-15.4%/+8%，即 饮收入占比+4.9pct 至 30%。 1、24 年冲泡销量同比-14%、价同比-2%，受外部消费环境变化及内部策略 调整，公司冲泡的库存、价盘稳定性受到影响；Q4 开始坚持以终端动销为 原则，积极去库稳价，目前库存已回归良性水平。 2、24 年即饮销量同比+11%、价同比-3%，其中果汁茶收入 7.8 亿、同比 +20.69%，聚集果茶策略成效显现；冻柠 ...

公司报告 | 年报点评报告 李子园（605337） 证券研究报告 甜牛奶小幅下滑，成本红利兑现 24 年业绩分拆：2024 年营业收入 14.15 亿元，同比+0.22%；归母净利 2.24 亿元，同比-5.55%；24Q4 营业收入 3.51 亿元，同比+2.44%；归母净利 0.67 亿元，同比+38.96%（对比 22Q4+2%）。25Q1 营业收入 3.20 亿元，同比-4.30%； 归母净利 0.66 亿元，同比+16.17%；扣非净利 0.62 亿元，同比+5.11%。24 年业绩符合预期。公司分红率 87%，同比+6pct；公司拟回购注销员工持股 计划中不得解禁的 433.13 万股（占股本约 1%）。 甜牛奶略有下滑，电商等新渠道积极开拓。 1、分产品看，24 年含乳饮料/其他收入 13.54/0.54 亿元，同比-2%/+128%； 含乳饮料量+0.4%、价-2.3%，预计系渠道结构调整影响。含乳饮料营收 Q4 持平、25Q1 同比-6%，新品铺货收入有望增长。 2、分区域看，24 年华东/华中/西南/华北/华南收入 6.98/2.38/2.76/0.23/0.81 亿元，同比-1%/-12 ...

公司报告 | 年报点评报告 香飘飘（603711） 证券研究报告 冲泡加快去库、果茶动能良好 24 年业绩分拆：24 年营业收入 32.87 亿元，同比-9.32%；归母净利 2.53 亿 元，同比-9.67%；扣非净利 2.18 亿元，同比-5.82%。24Q4 营业收入 13.49 亿元，同比-18.06%；归母净利 2.35 亿元，同比-14.94%；扣非净利 2.23 亿 元，同比-17.67%。25Q1 营业收入 5.80 亿元，同比-19.98%；归母净利-0.19 亿元，由盈转亏。分红率 41%，同比-10pct。 冲泡去库存承压，果茶增长势头靓丽。 分产品看：24 年冲泡类/即饮收入 22.71/9.73 亿元，同比-15.4%/+8%，即 饮收入占比+4.9pct 至 30%。 1、24 年冲泡销量同比-14%、价同比-2%，受外部消费环境变化及内部策略 调整，公司冲泡的库存、价盘稳定性受到影响；Q4 开始坚持以终端动销为 原则，积极去库稳价，目前库存已回归良性水平。 2、24 年即饮销量同比+11%、价同比-3%，其中果汁茶收入 7.8 亿、同比 +20.69%，聚集果茶策略成效显现；冻柠 ...

公司报告 | 年报点评报告 李子园（605337） 证券研究报告 甜牛奶小幅下滑，成本红利兑现 24 年业绩分拆：2024 年营业收入 14.15 亿元，同比+0.22%；归母净利 2.24 亿元，同比-5.55%；24Q4 营业收入 3.51 亿元，同比+2.44%；归母净利 0.67 亿元，同比+38.96%（对比 22Q4+2%）。25Q1 营业收入 3.20 亿元，同比-4.30%； 归母净利 0.66 亿元，同比+16.17%；扣非净利 0.62 亿元，同比+5.11%。24 年业绩符合预期。公司分红率 87%，同比+6pct；公司拟回购注销员工持股 计划中不得解禁的 433.13 万股（占股本约 1%）。 甜牛奶略有下滑，电商等新渠道积极开拓。 1、分产品看，24 年含乳饮料/其他收入 13.54/0.54 亿元，同比-2%/+128%； 含乳饮料量+0.4%、价-2.3%，预计系渠道结构调整影响。含乳饮料营收 Q4 持平、25Q1 同比-6%，新品铺货收入有望增长。 2、分区域看，24 年华东/华中/西南/华北/华南收入 6.98/2.38/2.76/0.23/0.81 亿元，同比-1%/-12 ...

Group 1 - The market is expected to continue its fluctuations in the medium term, with accelerated style rotation, supported by monetary policy easing and strong export performance [1] - China's export focus has successfully shifted towards ASEAN and EU markets, leading to stable export growth despite basic economic downward expectations [1] - The market may experience a rotation pattern of "risk aversion - consumption - growth" in May [1] Group 2 - A-share market is experiencing accelerated rotation, with a rebound in financing activity and a shift towards small and mid-cap growth stocks [2] - The combination of policies aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations supports risk appetite, while structural market conditions are expected to prevail [2] - Key internal certainty clues include potential benefits for large-cap stocks and public utilities from new public fund regulations, and opportunities in sectors like military electronics and renewable energy equipment [2] Group 3 - Strategic metals are likely to undergo a value reassessment due to increased export control measures and the importance of these resources in the current international political context [3] - The crackdown on smuggling and export of strategic minerals is deemed urgent and significant for national security and development interests [3] - Prices of strategic metals such as rare earths, tungsten, and antimony are expected to rise, indicating a potential investment opportunity in the strategic metals sector [3]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report from CITIC Securities highlights the importance of boosting consumption as a key driver for economic growth, with the food and beverage sector expected to benefit significantly from this focus on domestic demand [1] - The white liquor sector is projected to achieve total revenue of 441.94 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.66%, with net profit expected to reach 166.85 billion yuan, also up 7.60% [1] - The beer segment is showing signs of recovery, with sales and profit margins improving, indicating that it may have entered a growth phase [19] Group 2: Sector Analysis - **White Liquor**: The industry is currently facing a deep adjustment period, with sales pressures due to weak demand in gifting and banquet consumption, but leading companies are expected to strengthen their market positions through brand and operational advantages [1][6] - **Pre-processed Foods**: The sector is experiencing weak performance due to sluggish B-end restaurant demand, but is expected to benefit from a recovery in the C-end market, particularly in pre-prepared dishes [17] - **Dairy Products**: The dairy sector's revenue for 2024 is projected at 292.5 billion yuan, down 7.7% year-on-year, with net profit declining by 38.5% to 12.92 billion yuan [21][22] - **Snack Foods**: The sector is thriving, particularly with the popularity of konjac products, and companies are adapting to new retail formats like discount stores [24] - **Soft Drinks**: The functional beverage market continues to expand, with a notable increase in demand for sugar-free tea and functional drinks [26] - **Yellow Wine**: Leading companies in the yellow wine sector are expanding their advantages and driving the industry's high-end development [30]