Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) shows mixed signals, with some investors optimistic about small bets on bull certificates, while others anticipate a drop to 23,500-23,000 points after the interest rate meeting. The closing price stabilized at 23,710, but the daily trend appears downward, indicating a "sell" signal with short-term weakness [1] - Meituan (03690) has been in a continuous decline, with support at 127.2 and a potential drop below 130. The lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands is at 129, suggesting a weak trend [3] - BYD (01211) is hovering around 130, with a "sell" signal and a weak trend. The lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands is at 121.4, with support levels at 122 and 115 [5] - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388) is approaching the middle line of the Bollinger Bands at 409.8, with a "buy" signal. Investors should watch for support at 390 if they are looking for a rebound [8] - Kingsoft (03888) has broken its previous high, rising from 31.5 to 41.3, with a closing price of 40.95. There is still a potential 10% upside to the weekly chart's top at 46.15, but it may require more time [11] - ZhongAn Online (06060) is trying to hold above 20, with a "buy" signal. The stock is currently above the Bollinger Bands' top at 19.3, with support at 18. Investors should monitor stability around 20 [14]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent's stock price is currently at 506 HKD, showing a slight decline of 0.78%, with trading volume at 2.854 billion HKD, indicating a cautious market sentiment as the stock hovers below the 10-day moving average [1] Technical Analysis - The stock is experiencing narrow fluctuations below the 10-day moving average of 512.3 HKD, with the MACD indicator signaling a sell but nearing the zero axis, suggesting reduced volatility [1] - Key support is identified at 491 HKD, with potential downside to 474 HKD if this level is breached; resistance is noted at 522 HKD, with a breakthrough potentially leading to a challenge at 539 HKD [1] - Despite multiple moving averages indicating sell signals, the RSI at 52 is in a neutral zone, while the Williams indicator shows an oversold buy signal, reflecting a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces [1] Market Instruments - In the current market, bullish options include HSBC call warrant 15418 (16.3x leverage, exercise price 576.38 HKD) and UBS call warrant 17137 (11.6x leverage, exercise price 563.5 HKD), both exhibiting relatively low implied volatility [5] - For bearish strategies, options such as Morgan Stanley put warrant 15137 (10.3x leverage, exercise price 443.33 HKD) and UBS put warrant 16669 (10.7x leverage, exercise price 443.13 HKD) are available, along with Morgan Stanley bear certificate 58426 (16.9x leverage, redemption price 540 HKD) and UBS bear certificate 54414 (13.2x leverage, redemption price 550 HKD) [8]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is constrained by the March high of 24,874 points, with expectations of new financial policies from mainland China to stabilize the market, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [2] - The recent US-China trade negotiations have led to a temporary reduction in tariffs, with US tariffs on Chinese imports dropping from 145% to 30%, and Chinese tariffs on US goods decreasing from 125% to 10% for a 90-day period [2][3] - The Hang Seng Index's valuation has returned to reasonable levels, requiring significant positive developments in trade agreements and corporate earnings improvements to maintain upward momentum [2] Sector Focus - The report highlights a positive outlook for sectors such as financial stocks, automotive parts, and gold mining stocks, driven by recent developments in trade agreements and geopolitical factors [7][8] - The automotive sector in mainland China saw a year-on-year sales increase of 11.2% in May, with new energy vehicle sales rising by 36.9% [9] Company News - Horizon Robotics plans to raise approximately HKD 47 billion through a share placement at a discount of nearly 7% [10] - Kintor Pharmaceutical is preparing for an IPO in Hong Kong, aiming to raise around USD 100 million [10] - Pop Mart has expanded its production capacity but still faces supply shortages due to high demand for its products [11] - JD Logistics is expanding its operations in Saudi Arabia, having recruited over a thousand staff for its logistics services [10] - Alibaba is focusing on re-establishing its leadership in the technology sector, emphasizing AI and cloud infrastructure as key strategic pillars [10] Economic Indicators - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, with core CPI rising by 0.1% month-on-month, indicating that tariffs have not yet significantly impacted overall inflation levels [8] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates, with projections indicating two rate cuts totaling 0.5% for the year [4][8]

#騰訊 #港股 #窩輪 #牛熊證 #技術分析 #投資策略 #股票走勢 #支援位 #阻力位 #市場機會 #港股窩輪Jenny 各位股友，大家好！今日就同大家講下騰訊嘅短線走勢、技術分析與窩輪市場機會。 截至今日（10日）上午11點21分，騰訊(00700)最新報515元，暫微跌0.58%。 近日，騰訊在 AI 領域動作頻頻，混元大模型持續反覆運算升級，應用場景不斷拓展，像是在廣告智慧推薦、遊戲 AI 交互等方面都取得了顯著進展，這無 疑為其未來業務增長注入了新動力。而且，騰訊視頻也官宣了多部重磅影視劇集即將上線，有望拉動會員數量與廣告收入增長。 從技術分析來看，匯總多個技術指標，目前技術指標總結信號為 "買入"，強度達 13，屬於強力買入，多條移動平均線信號同樣顯示 "強力買入"。不過多個 震盪指標信號呈中立狀態，RSI 指標當前為 61，處於相對合理區間，但部分指標如威廉指標、隨機震盪指標顯示超買狀態，這暗示短期內股價或有波動。 系統分析出騰訊上升概率為 0.53，5 日振幅為 2.7%，顯示近期股價波動不算劇烈，但也存在變數。 10% 。 對於想佈局騰訊窩輪和牛熊證的投資者，選擇較為豐富。認購證方面，瑞銀認 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tencent is at a critical decision point with its stock price showing mixed signals from various technical indicators, indicating potential volatility in the near term [3][4][5]. Technical Analysis - The stock price is currently fluctuating around 518.5 HKD, with short-term support at 508.21 HKD (MA10) and 502.79 HKD (MA30), while the medium-term support is at 496.57 HKD (MA60) [3]. - Key support levels are identified at 499 HKD and 483 HKD, while resistance levels are at 531 HKD and 547 HKD [4]. - The stock has shown a volatility of 5.4% over five days, with a narrowing Bollinger Band indicating an impending breakout [4]. Short-term Trading Strategy - If the stock price stabilizes above 515 HKD and breaks through 531 HKD, it may trigger a new upward trend, suggesting the use of high-leverage bull certificates or near-price call options [5]. - Conversely, if the price falls below the 499 HKD support, investors should be cautious of potential pullback risks and consider deploying bear certificates or put options for hedging [5]. Performance of Derivative Products - From June 3 to June 5, Tencent's stock rose by 1.98%, positively impacting related derivative products, with UBS bull certificates surging by 33% and HSBC bull certificates increasing by 30% [6]. - Call options from UBS and JPMorgan also saw significant gains of 18% and 11%, respectively, highlighting the leverage effect of these products in a rising market [6]. Recommended Products - Among the current options, UBS call option 17137 offers a leverage of 11.1 times with a strike price of 563.5 HKD, suitable for bullish investors [7]. - For bearish positions, JPMorgan put option 15137 provides a leverage of 9.7 times with a strike price of 443.33 HKD, presenting a low premium for investors anticipating a downturn [7]. Popular Bull and Bear Certificates - HSBC bull certificates 67818 and 67820 offer leverage of 9.5 times and 8.8 times, respectively, with redemption prices set at 465 HKD and 460 HKD [10]. - For bearish strategies, Societe Generale bear certificate 58795 provides a high leverage of 17.8 times with a redemption price of 546 HKD, while JPMorgan bear certificate 58426 offers an even higher leverage of 20.2 times with a redemption price of 540 HKD [10].

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is facing resistance at 24,000 points, influenced by a series of financial policies introduced in May to stabilize the market, including interest rate cuts and structural monetary policy tools [2] - Recent US-China trade talks have led to a temporary easing of trade tensions, with tariffs on Chinese imports reduced from 145% to 30% and on US imports from 125% to 10% for a period of 90 days [2] - However, renewed accusations from US President Trump regarding China's compliance with agreements have cast uncertainty over future negotiations [2] Macro Focus - The new round of US-China trade negotiations is centered around rare earth issues, with the Chinese Ministry of Commerce approving a certain number of rare earth export applications [4][9] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for seven consecutive months, although the pace of increase has slowed [4][9] - The US non-farm payrolls for May showed an increase of 139,000, the lowest since February, with a revised downward adjustment of 95,000 for the previous two months [4][9] - The US Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious approach towards interest rate adjustments, with two rate cuts anticipated this year [4] Sector Focus - The pharmaceutical sector is viewed positively due to ongoing cooperation between Chinese and US pharmaceutical companies amidst manageable geopolitical risks [8] - Gold mining stocks are also favored as central banks continue to increase their gold holdings in response to geopolitical uncertainties [8] - The electricity sector is expected to benefit from increased demand during the summer, while coal prices continue to decline [8] Company News - BYD (1211) anticipates strong overseas sales this year, emphasizing the importance of international markets and high-end strategies [10] - Geely (0175) has decided against building new factories due to global automotive overcapacity [10] - Horizon Robotics (9660) has been included in the FTSE Global Index for Chinese large-cap stocks, effective June 20 [10] - GAC Group reported a 25% decline in May vehicle sales, with a 29% drop in new energy vehicle sales [10] - Zhihu (2390) reported a net profit of 6.94 million RMB in the first quarter, focusing on high-value users and reducing marketing expenses [10] - Landsea Green Group (2570) announced a placement of shares at a discount of approximately 28% to raise funds for hydrogen fuel cell development [10]

Group 1: Hang Seng Index - Investors see strong support at 23,600, with expectations to reach 24,000-24,100 on Friday, while some are cautious about a potential drop to 23,000 [1] - The index has been fluctuating within the range of 23,500-23,800 since mid-May, indicating low volatility which may affect derivative profits [1] - Technical signals show 13 buy signals, 2 sell signals, and 9 neutral signals, indicating a neutral preference [1] Group 2: Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388) - Investors are optimistic about HKEX, expecting a long-term target of at least 450, with a short-term resistance at 409 [3] - Technical signals indicate a strong buy with 17 buy signals, 1 sell signal, and 6 neutral signals, suggesting a steady upward trend [3] - If the price breaks through 409, the next resistance level is 423, which is still some distance from investor target prices [3] Group 3: Meituan-W (03690) - Investors are questioning whether Meituan can stabilize at 140 and challenge 145-150, while some are opening put options expecting a decline to 130 [6] - Technical signals maintain a buy rating with 14 buy signals, 2 sell signals, and 8 neutral signals, though the buy signals are not very strong [6] - Resistance levels are noted at 146.5 and 153.3 [6] Group 4: Pop Mart (09992) - Investors are optimistic about Pop Mart, predicting a rise to at least 252-260 next week, viewing it as a buying opportunity [9] - Technical signals maintain a buy rating with upward trends, with resistance at 258 and support at 219 [9] Group 5: China Resources Beer (00291) - Investors are observing a rebound in stock price over three days, questioning if it will challenge 28 [12] - Technical signals indicate a sell preference with 13 sell signals, 5 buy signals, and 6 neutral signals, suggesting caution [12] - The stock has faced resistance at the middle line of the Bollinger Bands at 25.9, with a significant distance to 28 [12] Group 6: Baidu Group-SW (09888) - Investors are divided, with bulls hoping to maintain 82 for a rebound, while bears anticipate further declines [15] - Recent price movements show a slight recovery, closing at 83, but still below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands [15] - Technical signals indicate a sell preference with 11 buy signals, 7 neutral signals, and 6 sell signals, with support at 79.9 and resistance at 86.2 [15]

Group 1: Hang Seng Index - Investors believe that the Hang Seng Index may not hold above 23,300, with potential declines to 22,000-22,700 [1] - Technical analysis indicates a "sell" signal with 10 sell signals, 7 buy signals, and 7 neutral signals [1] - The current market price is at the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, suggesting a slight bearish bias [1] Group 2: Tencent Holdings (00700) - Bearish investors expect the stock to test support at 495 HKD, with further support at 470-450 HKD [3] - The technical summary shows 11 sell signals and 4 buy signals, indicating a bearish sentiment [3] - The support level is identified at 483 HKD, which is also the lower band of the Bollinger Bands [3] Group 3: Kuaishou-W (01024) - Bullish investors believe that if the stock holds above 54 HKD, it could challenge 60 HKD [6] - The technical summary indicates a "buy" signal with 14 buy signals and 3 sell signals [6] - Resistance levels are noted at 55.7 HKD and 57.5 HKD, with the upper Bollinger Band at 55.5 HKD [6] Group 4: AIA Group (01299) - Some investors are optimistic about the stock challenging the 70-75 HKD range, while bearish investors expect a drop to 55 HKD [8] - Resistance levels are identified at 67.4 HKD and 69.8 HKD, both below 70 HKD [8] - The technical analysis leans towards a "buy" signal based on daily trends [8] Group 5: Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) - Investors are questioning whether the stock will challenge the 33-36 HKD range, with some bearish investors targeting 31 HKD [12] - The technical summary shows a "buy" signal with 10 buy signals, 8 sell signals, and 6 neutral signals [12] - Resistance levels are at 33.6 HKD and 36.6 HKD, closely aligning with investor expectations [12] Group 6: Zijin Mining (02899) - Investors are optimistic about valuation increases due to movements in gold and copper, despite some bearish sentiment expecting a drop to 14 HKD [15] - The closing price has fallen below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, raising concerns about further declines [15] - The short-term technical signal is a "sell," with support levels at 17 HKD and 16.3 HKD [15]

Group 1 - Tencent Holdings (00700) stock price has been fluctuating, currently at 497.2 HKD, down 2.64%, indicating a tug-of-war between bulls and bears [1] - The current price is hovering above the support level of 485 HKD, with potential downside to 479 HKD if it breaks below, while the key resistance level is at 517 HKD, with a possible challenge to 526 HKD if broken [1] - Technical indicators show a sell signal from MACD and Bollinger Bands, but RSI at 52 indicates a neutral market without a clear direction [1] Group 2 - The 10-day moving average (512.45 HKD) has crossed below the 30-day moving average (494.56 HKD), forming a death cross, although the price deviation from the 60-day moving average (496.79 HKD) has narrowed to 0.6%, suggesting a potential end to the adjustment [3] - On May 26, when Tencent's stock fell by 0.78%, Morgan Stanley and UBS bear certificates recorded gains of 9% and 10% respectively, showcasing the profit potential of bearish instruments in a declining market [3] Group 3 - For bullish strategies, Morgan Stanley call warrants (28574) and Morgan Stanley call warrants (13263) offer approximately 10x leverage with exercise prices around 563 HKD, suitable for investors expecting a rebound [5] - In the bear market tools, Citibank put warrants (15235) provide 11.6x leverage with the lowest premium, while Morgan Stanley and Societe Generale bear certificates offer impressive leverage of 18-19x, with redemption prices set at 529 HKD and 528 HKD respectively, appealing to high-risk tolerance investors [9]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Holdings (00700) is currently trading around HKD 506, maintaining above the critical support level of HKD 490, with technical indicators suggesting potential upward movement [1][2]. Technical Analysis - The first support level for Tencent is at HKD 490, with a potential drop to HKD 474 if this level is breached. The key resistance level is at HKD 523, and a breakthrough could lead to a challenge at HKD 538 [2]. - The 10-day moving average is at HKD 514.2, while the 30-day moving average is at HKD 490.79, indicating short-term support [1]. - The RSI is at a neutral level of 55, and the MACD and Bollinger Bands indicate potential for price increase, contingent on volume support [1]. Signal Summary - Current technical signals include 6 sell signals, 7 neutral signals, and 11 buy signals, suggesting a general "buy" recommendation [1][4]. Market Sentiment - Recent market activity shows a volatility of 3.6% over the past five trading days, indicating that the market is still searching for a clear direction [2]. - Investors are considering various derivative products, with some anticipating a drop to around HKD 495, while others are looking at options with a recovery price of HKD 491 [4][5]. Derivative Products - Multiple derivative tools are available for investors, including call options with leverage ranging from 9.5 to 10.1 times, and put options for bearish strategies with leverage up to 16.6 times [7][10]. - Notable products include Morgan Stanley's call option (13263) with a strike price of HKD 563.5 and a low premium, appealing to conservative investors [7]. Investment Discussion - Investors are encouraged to consider whether Tencent is more likely to break through HKD 523 or test the support at HKD 490 in the near term [13].