Core Viewpoint - Analysts forecast a significant decline in D.R. Horton's quarterly earnings and revenues, indicating potential challenges for the company in the upcoming earnings release [1]. Earnings Estimates - D.R. Horton is expected to report earnings of $2.93 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 28.5% [1]. - Revenue is anticipated to be $8.81 billion, down 11.6% compared to the same quarter last year [1]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised upward by 0.4% in the past 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [2]. Revenue Breakdown - Analysts estimate 'Revenues- Home sales- Homebuilding' at $8.21 billion, a decrease of 11.1% year-over-year [5]. - 'Revenues- Rental' is projected to reach $293.28 million, down 29.1% from the previous year [5]. - 'Revenues- Financial Services' is expected to be $222.94 million, indicating an 8% decline [5]. - 'Revenues- Homebuilding' is projected at $8.23 billion, reflecting a 10.9% decrease year-over-year [6]. Geographic Revenue Estimates - 'Geographic Revenues- Homebuilding- Northwest' is expected to be $713.78 million, down 1.6% from the prior year [6]. - 'Geographic Revenues- Homebuilding- North' is projected to reach $1.12 billion, showing a 5.3% increase [6]. - 'Geographic Revenues- Homebuilding- Southwest' is estimated at $1.10 billion, down 16.4% year-over-year [7]. - 'Geographic Revenues- Homebuilding- South Central' is expected to be $1.79 billion, indicating a 10.9% decline [7]. Sales Metrics - The average selling price for homes closed is estimated at $370.81 million, down from $382.20 million in the same quarter last year [8]. - Analysts predict 'Homes Closed' to reach 22,142, compared to 24,155 in the same quarter last year [8]. - 'Net sales order - Homes sold' is estimated at 22,121, down from 23,001 in the previous year [9]. - 'Sales order backlog - Homes in backlog' is projected to be 14,217, compared to 16,792 in the same quarter last year [9]. Market Performance - Over the past month, D.R. Horton shares have increased by 8.4%, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's 4.2% change [10]. - The company holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), suggesting it may perform in line with the overall market in the near term [10].

Group 1 - Japanese traditional pension funds are increasingly allocating more capital to alternative assets to enhance returns, with Daiwa House Industry's pension fund reaching 57% allocation to private equity, private debt, and hedge funds as of March [1] - The allocation to alternative assets has risen from approximately 30% when Toru Yamane joined in 2006, with a target of 60% set for 2023 [1] - The fund manages about 587 billion yen (approximately 4 billion USD) and has shown little interest in traditional safe-haven assets like government bonds, which constituted only 1% of its holdings as of March 31 [1] Group 2 - In late May, Japanese government bonds experienced a significant drop due to weak auctions, with 30-year and 40-year yields reaching record highs [4] - Yamane emphasized the importance of diversification to build a portfolio that can withstand major market downturns, stating that the company does not consider shifting assets to government bonds [4] - Despite the overall increase in alternative asset allocation among Japanese pension funds, the average allocation remains at only 20%, significantly lower than Daiwa House's allocation [4] Group 3 - The company's pension plan aims to further diversify its alternative asset allocation, with private assets (including private equity/debt, infrastructure, and real estate) exceeding 30% and plans to increase hedge fund allocation from 14% to 18% [5] - Yamane expressed caution regarding Japanese government bonds, questioning the value of taking interest rate risks for a return of 3% [5] - A survey by J.P. Morgan Asset Management indicated that 30% of 80 Japanese corporate pension and mutual associations plan to increase their allocation to alternative assets, with a focus on lower-volatility private assets [5]

Core Insights - KB Home reported $1.53 billion in revenue for the quarter ended May 2025, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 10.5% and an EPS of $1.50 compared to $2.15 a year ago, with revenue exceeding Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.30% and EPS by 3.45% [1] Financial Performance - Revenue from homebuilding was $1.52 billion, down 10.4% year-over-year, and exceeded the four-analyst average estimate of $1.49 billion [4] - Total revenues from financial services were $4.87 million, a significant decline of 41.3% compared to the previous year, and below the average estimate of $6.65 million [4] - Operating income from homebuilding was reported at $131.46 million, surpassing the average estimate of $124.01 million [4] - Homebuilding pretax income was $134.22 million, slightly above the estimated $130.44 million [4] Key Metrics - Backlog units stood at 4,776, lower than the average estimate of 5,089 [4] - Average selling price was $488.70 million, slightly above the average estimate of $487.12 million [4] - Net orders were 3,460, below the average estimate of 3,723 [4] - Unit deliveries totaled 3,120, exceeding the average estimate of 3,070 [4] - Backlog value was $2.29 billion, below the estimated $2.56 billion [4] - Ending community count was 253, close to the average estimate of 254 [4] Stock Performance - KB Home shares returned +1% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.5% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), indicating potential underperformance in the near term [3]

Group 1 - The overall market conditions index for U.S. home builders has decreased by 2 points to 32, falling below market expectations of 36 and reaching the lowest level since December 2022 [1] - All three key components of the index have declined, indicating significant pressure on the U.S. real estate market and a notable decrease in industry confidence [1][3] - The current sales index has dropped to its lowest point since 2012, reflecting a cooling market sentiment and diminishing confidence among builders regarding quick sales [3] Group 2 - High mortgage rates, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate hovering around 7%, are suppressing buyers' purchasing power and contributing to the decline in builder confidence [3] - Concerns over rising building material costs, labor shortages, and potential new tariffs are making developers more conservative in their project initiation and pricing strategies [3] - The anticipated delay in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and tightening tariffs on imported building materials could further increase construction costs and compress developers' profit margins [3][4] Group 3 - The current data on U.S. home builders' confidence serves as a barometer for macroeconomic pressures and changes in household purchasing confidence [4] - Without significant adjustments in interest rate policies or targeted housing support measures from the government, the downturn in the construction industry may persist and structurally hinder U.S. economic growth [4]

Group 1 - The Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, William Pulte, publicly urged Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to restart the interest rate cut cycle to alleviate pressure on the housing market [1] - Pulte emphasized that lowering interest rates would directly improve homebuyer affordability and inject much-needed liquidity into the stagnant housing market [1] - The Trump administration has consistently pressured the Federal Reserve to lower borrowing costs, linking tight monetary policy with trade protectionism that suppresses economic vitality [3] Group 2 - Economists point out that the underlying issues in the U.S. housing market stem from structural contradictions, including a growing housing inventory gap and limited new home construction due to rising material costs and labor shortages [3] - The National Association of Home Builders reported that the cost of single-family home construction has increased by 37% compared to 2020 [3] - Over 60% of retail businesses plan to raise end prices in the coming quarters to pass on the cost pressures from tariffs, indicating a cost-push inflation scenario [3] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve has maintained its policy stance despite political pressure, keeping the interest rate range at 4.25%-4.5% after a cumulative cut of 100 basis points in the second half of 2024 [4] - Powell stated that monetary policy will not yield to short-term political considerations, emphasizing the need for strategic consistency amid economic uncertainties caused by tariff disputes [4] - The combination of rising construction costs and labor shortages, along with tariff-induced price increases, poses a dual pressure on the housing market, complicating the Fed's ability to achieve its 2% inflation target [4]

Core Insights - Toll Brothers reported revenue of $2.74 billion for the quarter ended April 2025, a decrease of 3.5% year-over-year, but exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.5 billion by 9.54% [1] - The company's EPS was $3.50, up from $3.38 in the same quarter last year, representing an EPS surprise of 22.38% against the consensus estimate of $2.86 [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Closed/Delivered Units: 2,899, exceeding the average estimate of 2,621 units by five analysts [4] - Backlog Units: 6,063, below the average estimate of 6,738 units by five analysts [4] - Average Delivered Price: $933.60, lower than the estimated $949.89 by five analysts [4] - Net Contracts Units: 2,650, below the average estimate of 3,046 units by five analysts [4] - Average Backlog Price: $1,128.10, higher than the average estimate of $1,100.15 by three analysts [4] - Backlog Value: $6.84 billion, below the average estimate of $7.47 billion by two analysts [4] - Revenues from Home Sales: $2.71 billion, exceeding the average estimate of $2.49 billion by six analysts, representing a 2.3% increase year-over-year [4] - Revenues from Land Sales: $32.60 million, significantly higher than the estimated $18.21 million, but a decrease of 82.9% year-over-year [4] - Gross Margin from Home Sales: $704.24 million, surpassing the average estimate of $640.39 million by four analysts [4] - Gross Margin from Land Sales and Other: $1.20 million, compared to the average estimate of $0.56 million based on three analysts [4] Stock Performance - Toll Brothers shares have returned +15.1% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +13.1% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), indicating potential underperformance relative to the broader market in the near term [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration's trade protectionism is reshaping the operational logic of the U.S. real estate market, with economists warning that 2025 may be a critical turning point due to the combined pressures of trade policy and economic cycles [1] Supply-Side Impact - The latest financial report from builder PulteGroup reveals the transmission effects of tariffs, with key building materials like bathroom fixtures and tiles seeing procurement costs rise due to a 10% global tariff policy, despite temporary exemptions for materials like copper and lumber [2] - The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) indicates that the cost of single-family home construction has increased by 37% since 2020, with tariff-related costs accounting for 19% of this increase [2] - Labor market constraints are exacerbated by tightened immigration policies, leading to a labor shortage of 300,000 in the construction industry, which directly raises labor costs [2] - Developer willingness to start new projects has dropped to the lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis due to the dual pressures of material tariffs and labor shortages [2] Demand-Side Pressure - Housing affordability is experiencing systemic deterioration, with the median U.S. household income now allocating 34% to mortgage payments, surpassing the historical warning line since the 1980s [2] - The 30-year fixed mortgage rate remains high at 6.8%, having doubled from its 2020 low, despite the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates [2] - The Case-Shiller index shows that home prices are rising at a rate that consistently exceeds CPI growth, with actual home prices up 89% from their 2012 low [2] - Core inflation in housing rent has increased by 5.7% year-over-year, contributing significantly to price stickiness [2] Monetary Policy Dilemma - The structure of inflation is forcing monetary policy into a dilemma, with the Federal Reserve's vice chairman acknowledging that supply-side inflation from trade policies is undermining the effectiveness of demand management policies [4] - Market expectations indicate that there is less than 50 basis points of room for interest rate cuts before 2026, suggesting that mortgage rates may remain elevated for an extended period [4] Regional Disparities - Structural adjustments in the market are leading to increasing regional disparities, with cities in the Midwest like Chicago and Detroit maintaining a reasonable price-to-income ratio of 4.2, while high-cost areas like San Jose and Honolulu exceed 12 [5] - Fairweather warns that simply addressing spatial mismatches will not resolve fundamental issues for employment groups reliant on high-paying sectors like technology and finance [5] Proposed Solutions - To address systemic challenges, Fairweather suggests multi-layered solutions, including establishing a special impact assessment mechanism for tariff policies on the real estate market at the federal level [5] - At the local level, reforms to "Planning Commission 2.0" should incorporate housing affordability metrics into land development approval processes [5] - The housing crisis is fundamentally a failure of public policy, necessitating a comprehensive response framework that includes immigration, trade, and monetary policies [5]

PulteGroup (PHM) Q1 2025 Earnings Call April 22, 2025 08:30 AM ET Company Participants James Zeumer - Vice President of Investor Relations & Corporate CommunicationsRyan Marshall - President and CEOJames Ossowski - EVP & CFOStephen Kim - Senior Managing DirectorMichael Rehaut - Executive DirectorMike Dahl - Managing Director - Equity ResearchCarl Reichardt - Managing Director - Equity ResearchAlan Ratner - Managing Director Conference Call Participants John Lovallo - AnalystSam Reid - AnalystMatthew Bouley ...