Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the reliability of brokerage recommendations, particularly focusing on M/I Homes (MHO), and highlights the potential misalignment of interests between brokerage analysts and retail investors [1][5]. Brokerage Recommendations - M/I Homes has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.80, indicating a position between Strong Buy and Buy, with 80% of the recommendations being Strong Buy from five brokerage firms [2][5]. - Despite the positive ABR, relying solely on this information for investment decisions may not be advisable, as studies suggest brokerage recommendations often fail to guide investors effectively [5][10]. Analyst Bias - Brokerage analysts tend to exhibit a strong positive bias in their ratings due to vested interests, with a ratio of five "Strong Buy" recommendations for every "Strong Sell" [6][10]. - This bias can mislead investors, as the recommendations may not accurately reflect the actual price trajectory of a stock [7][10]. Zacks Rank Comparison - The Zacks Rank, a proprietary stock rating tool, categorizes stocks from Strong Buy to Strong Sell and is based on earnings estimate revisions, which have shown a strong correlation with near-term stock price movements [8][11]. - The Zacks Rank is distinct from the ABR, as it is a quantitative model that reflects timely earnings estimates, while the ABR may not always be up-to-date [9][13]. Current Earnings Estimates for M/I Homes - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for M/I Homes has declined by 2.2% over the past month to $16.62, indicating growing pessimism among analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [14]. - This decline in earnings estimates has resulted in a Zacks Rank of 5 (Strong Sell) for M/I Homes, suggesting caution despite the favorable ABR [15].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company delivered 2,959 homes at an average price of $974,000, generating record third-quarter home sale revenues of $2,900,000,000, which represents a 5% increase in units and a 6% increase in dollars compared to the previous year's third quarter [6][14]. - Adjusted gross margin for the quarter was 27.5%, exceeding guidance by 25 basis points, while SG&A expenses were 8.8% of home sales revenues, 40 basis points better than guidance [6][16]. - Earnings for the quarter were $370,000,000, or $3.73 per diluted share, with a return of approximately $226,000,000 to stockholders through dividends and share repurchases [6][19]. Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company signed 2,388 net contracts for $2,400,000,000, reflecting a 4% decline in units but flat in dollars due to an increase in average sales price to just over $1,000,000 [6][15]. - The average price of contracts signed in the quarter was $1,010,000, while the average price in the backlog was $1,160,000, indicating strong financial profiles of buyers [16][9]. - The cancellation rate was 3.2% of the beginning backlog, compared to 2.4% in the previous year's third quarter, reflecting the financial strength of buyers [10]. Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company ended the third quarter with 420 active selling communities and expects to reach 440 to 450 communities by the end of the fiscal year, representing 8% to 10% year-over-year growth [11][12]. - The company has 3,200 spec homes at various stages of construction and another 1,800 building permits ready to go, allowing for quick ramp-up in production as market conditions improve [8][9]. Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company continues to prioritize price and margin over pace, actively managing spec starts and inventory levels on a community-by-community basis to match local market conditions [7][11]. - The strategy of selling spec homes at various stages of construction allows buyers to personalize their homes while providing a faster construction schedule [8][9]. - The company remains focused on capital-efficient deal structures and maintaining a strong land position to support long-term growth [12][19]. Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in maintaining a full-year adjusted gross margin of 27.25% and expects to deliver approximately 11,200 homes for the full year [21][22]. - The management noted that building costs are beginning to come down modestly, with no significant impact from tariffs expected this fiscal year [10][11]. - There is optimism regarding community count growth and sales pace for fiscal year 2026, with expectations of 20 to 30 openings in Q4 [34][39]. Other Important Information - The company issued $500,000,000 of ten-year senior notes at a 5.6% coupon and called $350,000,000 of senior notes scheduled to mature in November, extending the weighted average years to maturity of senior notes [19]. - The company spent $433,000,000 on new land acquisitions during the quarter, maintaining a disciplined approach to underwriting [12][19]. Q&A Session Summary Question: Cash flow from operations guidance - The company expects to generate over $1,000,000,000 in cash flow from operations, with year-to-date cash flow around $400 million [27][28]. Question: Sales pace and incentives - Sales pace improved from May to August, with incentives increasing from 7% to 8% primarily due to discounting on finished spec homes [48][49]. Question: Order picture for Q4 - Management is optimistic about community count growth in Q4, with new openings expected to drive orders [60][61]. Question: Development costs and cycle times - The company has not seen much relief on land development costs, and cycle times vary across communities, with efforts ongoing to improve efficiency [68][77]. Question: Spec mix and margin differentials - The current spec mix is around 50%, compared to 10-15% pre-COVID, with margins on build-to-order homes being higher than spec homes [88][89].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company delivered 2,959 homes at an average price of $974,000, generating record third-quarter home sale revenues of $2,900,000,000, which represents a 5% increase in units and a 6% increase in dollars compared to the previous year [5][15] - Adjusted gross margin was 27.5%, exceeding guidance by 25 basis points, while SG&A expense was 8.8% of home sales revenues, 40 basis points better than guidance [5][16] - Third-quarter earnings were $370,000,000 or $3.73 per diluted share, with a cancellation rate of 3.2%, which remains the lowest in the industry [10][15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company signed 2,388 net contracts for $2,400,000,000, with units down approximately 4% year over year, but dollars flat due to an increase in average sales price to just over $1,000,000 [5][15] - The average sales price (ASP) was up 4.5% versus 2024 and up 3% versus the last quarter, indicating resilience in the luxury business [5][15] - The backlog stood at 5,492 homes valued at $6,376,000,000, with an average sales price in the backlog of $1,160,000 [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company ended the third quarter with 420 active selling communities and expects to end the fiscal year with 440 to 450 communities, representing 8% to 10% year-over-year growth [11][12] - The company has 3,200 spec homes at various stages of completion and another 1,800 building permits ready to go, allowing for quick ramp-up of spec production as market conditions improve [7][9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company continues to prioritize price and margin over pace, actively managing spec starts and inventory levels on a community-by-community basis to match local market conditions [6][11] - The strategy of selling spec homes at various stages of construction allows buyers to personalize their homes while providing a faster construction schedule [8][9] - The company remains disciplined in its land acquisition strategy, focusing on high-quality land at attractive returns while keeping land off balance sheet as long as practical [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in maintaining a full-year adjusted gross margin of 27.25% and expects to deliver approximately 11,200 homes for the full year [6][23] - The company anticipates a modest decline in build costs and has not seen significant impacts from tariffs, with expectations for build costs to come down in the foreseeable future [10][11] - Management highlighted the importance of community openings and spec strategy to drive growth in fiscal year 2026, with optimism about market conditions improving [36][41] Other Important Information - The company returned approximately $226,000,000 to stockholders through dividends and share repurchases in the quarter [5] - The company issued $500,000,000 of ten-year senior notes at a 5.6% coupon and called $350,000,000 of senior notes scheduled to mature in November [20][21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Cash flow from operations guidance - The year-to-date cash flow from operations is approximately $400 million, with expectations to reach over $1,000,000,000 by year-end [29][30] Question: Construction costs expectations - Management expects construction costs to be flat to modestly down in the short term, with some progress in negotiating better pricing for materials [31][32] Question: Sales pace and community growth - Management confirmed no change in the sales pace target of two homes per community per month and expressed excitement about community count growth in fiscal year 2026 [35][36] Question: Incentives and sales trends - Incentives increased to 8% due to more discounting on finished specs, but management noted that incentives have stabilized recently [50][51] Question: Development costs and community count guidance - Management has not seen much relief on land development costs but expects community count growth to be spread throughout the quarter without significant regional concentration [69][72]

Core Insights - The U.S. residential construction market is showing a complex picture, with July new housing starts unexpectedly rising by 5.2%, reaching an annualized rate of 1.43 million units, the highest in five months, exceeding economists' expectations [1] Group 1: Housing Starts and Permits - The increase in housing starts is primarily driven by strong performance in multi-family housing, with July multi-family starts rising nearly 10% to an annualized rate of 489,000 units, marking the fastest construction pace of 2023 [3] - Single-family housing starts also saw stable growth, increasing by 2.8% to an annualized rate of 639,000 units [3] - However, building permits, a key indicator of future construction activity, declined by 2.8% in July to an annualized rate of 1.35 million units, the lowest level in five years [3] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Economic Impact - Builders remain cautious about the market outlook, as many homeowners choose to stay put due to doubled mortgage rates, leading to reduced liquidity in the real estate market [3] - The current market shows a clear divide, with single-family building permits rising for the first time since February, indicating potential moderate recovery, while multi-family permits are declining, reflecting developers' concerns about future demand for apartments and townhouses [3] - The complex dynamics in the residential construction market are expected to significantly impact the overall U.S. economy, as housing starts data is a key indicator for GDP predictions [6] Group 3: Future Outlook - Observers note that the surge in multi-family construction may indicate a deepening housing affordability crisis, as rising home prices and interest rates push more families towards renting or purchasing lower-priced condominiums and townhouses instead of single-family homes [6] - Despite some positive signals from July data, economists warn against overinterpreting single-month figures, as the residential construction market still faces significant challenges, including rising labor costs, land supply constraints, and an uncertain macroeconomic environment [8] - The performance of the U.S. real estate market in the coming months will largely depend on the trajectory of mortgage rates, with potential stabilization or slight declines possibly boosting consumer confidence and stimulating more home-buying activity [8]

Group 1 - The Jackson Hole central bank conference is set to begin, with a focus on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's final speech, which is expected to be dovish amid rising market expectations for interest rate cuts [3][5] - Recent weak U.S. employment data has led to increased market bets on a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with expectations for at least one more cut by the end of the year [3][5] - The two-year U.S. Treasury yield has seen the largest decline, reflecting the market's sensitivity to interest rate changes [3] Group 2 - Former President Trump has publicly criticized Powell, suggesting that his policies are harming the real estate sector and calling for significant rate cuts [5][6] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has indicated that rate cuts could help the struggling real estate market, which has been facing low sales and new construction [6] - The Dow Jones U.S. Home Builders Select Index has risen above its 200-day and 50-day moving averages, signaling a technical uptrend in response to rate cut expectations [6] Group 3 - Market analysts note that sectors traditionally benefiting from rate cuts have shown strong performance, as investors anticipate a return to a rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve [7] - The Federal Reserve's current monetary policy framework, established in 2012, is under review, with potential changes expected to be part of Powell's legacy after his term ends in May 2024 [7][8] - There is speculation that the Federal Reserve may abandon the "average inflation targeting" framework, which some believe contributed to misjudgments regarding inflation during the pandemic [8]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Jackson Hole central bank conference is highly anticipated, particularly for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's final speech, with expectations leaning towards a dovish stance and potential interest rate cuts due to recent weak employment data [2][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Expectations - Following signals from the Trump administration regarding interest rate cuts, U.S. real estate stocks have seen a preemptive rise, with the Dow Jones U.S. Home Builders Select Index climbing above its 200-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating a technical bullish trend [6]. - The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) increased by 5.6% over the past week, with individual homebuilders like D.R. Horton Inc. and Lennar Corp. rising by 5.8% and 9.2% respectively [6]. - Notably, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a new position of approximately $200 million in D.R. Horton and increased its stake in Lennar, reflecting confidence in the housing sector [6]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Changes - The Federal Reserve's current monetary policy framework, established in 2012, is set for a review, with potential changes to be implemented after Powell's term ends in May 2026 [8]. - There is speculation that Powell may abolish the "average inflation targeting" framework, which was designed during a low-inflation period, in favor of a singular 2% inflation target due to the changing economic landscape post-pandemic [8]. - Powell hinted at the possibility of this change in a May speech, acknowledging that future inflation volatility may be significantly higher than in the previous decade [8].

Group 1 - Market expectations are leaning towards a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with investors betting on at least a 25 basis point cut in September and potentially another cut later in the year due to weak employment data [1][4] - The Dow Jones U.S. Home Builders Select Index has risen above its 200-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating a technical bullish trend, driven by expectations of rate cuts [5] - Notable increases in stock prices for residential builders such as D.R. Horton Inc. and Lennar Corp., with respective gains of 5.8% and 9.2% in the past week, reflect the market's optimism regarding rate cuts [5] Group 2 - The current monetary policy framework of the Federal Reserve, established in 2012, is set for a review, which may lead to significant changes in policy strategies and communication mechanisms [4][6] - There is speculation that the Federal Reserve may abandon the "average inflation targeting" framework, which was deemed ineffective in the post-pandemic inflation environment, in favor of a single inflation target of 2% [6] - Powell's potential changes to the inflation targeting strategy are expected to be a significant part of his legacy as he approaches the end of his term in May 2024 [6]

Group 1 - Recent market trends show a shift towards undervalued sectors, particularly residential construction stocks and small-cap stocks, benefiting from anticipated interest rate cuts [2][3] - The Dow Jones U.S. Homebuilders Select Index has risen above its 200-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating a technical bullish momentum [2] - The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF increased by 5.6% over the past week, with individual stocks like D.R. Horton Inc. and Lennar Corp. rising by 5.8% and 9.2% respectively [2] Group 2 - Analysts expect Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to adopt a dovish stance at the Jackson Hole meeting, aligning with market expectations for interest rate cuts [3][4] - Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a new position of approximately $200 million in D.R. Horton and increased its stake in Lennar, indicating confidence in the residential construction sector [4] - Despite the recent rebound, residential construction stocks still lag behind the S&P 500 index, which has rebounded about 20% since April [5] Group 3 - The U.S. real estate market remains stagnant due to record-high home prices, supply imbalances, and elevated mortgage rates, which hinder home buying and selling [5] - Builders are offering temporary rate buy-downs to stimulate sales, with initial rates sometimes as low as 3.99%, making them more competitive [5] - Investment preferences are shifting towards sectors like technology, communication services, and utilities, while residential construction remains a focus due to long-term supply shortages [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent rebound in U.S. housing stocks and small-cap stocks, driven by market expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, particularly in light of the upcoming Jackson Hole meeting [3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Dow Jones U.S. Homebuilders Select Index has risen above its 200-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating a technical upward trend [3]. - The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) increased by 5.6% over the past week, with individual stocks like D.R. Horton Inc. (DHI) and Lennar Corp. (LEN) rising by 5.8% and 9.2%, respectively [3]. - The Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks also saw a 3.1% increase, while the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones indices rose by 0.9%, 0.8%, and 1.7% respectively during the same period [3]. Group 2: Expert Insights - Adam Turnquist, Chief Technical Strategist at LPL Financial, noted that housing stocks had previously suffered, dropping nearly 36% from their peak last October, making the current recovery understandable [4]. - Michael Arone, Chief Investment Strategist at State Street Investment Management, stated that traditional sectors benefiting from rate cuts have been rising as the market anticipates a return to a rate-cutting cycle by the Fed [4][5]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Expectations - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to adopt a dovish stance in his upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole meeting, aligning with market expectations for rate cuts [5]. - There is speculation about the possibility of a 50 basis point cut in September, although a more gradual approach of 25 basis points is considered more likely by most market participants [5]. Group 4: Investment Moves - Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a new position of approximately $200 million in D.R. Horton and increased its stake in Lennar, indicating confidence in the housing sector [6]. Group 5: Industry Challenges - Despite the recent strong rebound, housing stocks are still lagging behind the S&P 500 index, which has rebounded about 20% since April [8]. - The U.S. real estate market remains stagnant due to record-high home prices, supply imbalances, and elevated mortgage rates, which hinder home buying activity [8][9]. - The current market conditions have led builders to offer temporary rate buy-downs to stimulate sales, with starting rates sometimes as low as 3.99% [9].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. residential construction sector is experiencing short-term pressures alongside long-term potential, with challenges including inventory and price pressures, profit margin squeeze, and housing affordability issues. However, the underlying demand for housing remains strong, indicating potential for recovery if key variables shift positively [2][4][6]. Inventory and Price Pressure - New home inventory has been rising since 2023, leading developers to adopt price reduction strategies or sales incentives to accelerate sales, resulting in a 7% year-on-year decline in new home sales prices as of Q2 2025 [4][5]. - As of mid-2025, 38% of developers have lowered prices, while 62% have offered sales incentives, with discounts averaging 6%-8% off the sales price [4]. Profit Margin Pressure - U.S. residential builders are facing significant profit margin pressures due to high land, labor, and financing costs, alongside additional promotional costs. The average gross margin for major builders has declined by 3 percentage points year-on-year as of Q2 2025 [5][6]. Housing Affordability Constraints - The housing affordability index has dropped from 100.9 at the end of 2024 to 94.4 in mid-2025, indicating a decrease in buyer confidence and purchasing power in a high-interest rate environment [6][7]. Valuation Dynamics - The valuation of residential builders is expected to undergo a two-phase recovery: the first phase driven by changes in interest rate expectations leading to valuation multiples expansion, and the second phase driven by profit recovery, which is subject to various macroeconomic uncertainties [3][7]. - Current valuation multiples have decreased by 20%-30% from previous highs, providing a safety margin for investors [9]. Investment Opportunities - The initial phase of investment opportunities is linked to the anticipated changes in interest rates, with a focus on companies with low valuation levels but high return on equity (ROE). The recovery in profitability may vary based on product types and market coverage [9][10]. - Companies with a market share in entry-level products and those operating in high-immigration areas are expected to see order volume recovery first [9][10]. Key Financial Metrics - The average asset-liability ratio for U.S. residential builders has slightly increased in 2025, while gross margins have generally declined by 3 percentage points year-on-year as of Q2 2025 [43][44]. - Return on equity (ROE) and return on assets (ROA) have shown a downward trend, averaging 20.5% and 11.5% respectively as of mid-2025, although still above the S&P 500 average [44][50].