能源化工日报 2025-07-01 原油 能源化工组 2025/7/1 原油早评 行情方面：WTI 主力原油期货收跌 0.10 美元，跌幅 0.15%，报 64.97 美元；布伦特主力原油期 货收涨 0.32 美元，涨幅 0.48%，报 67.63 美元；INE 主力原油期货收跌 2.40 元，跌幅 0.48%， 报 498.3 元。 数据方面：中国原油周度数据出炉，原油到港库存去库 0.65 百万桶至 208.07 百万桶，环比 去库 0.31%；汽油商业库存累库 0.68 百万桶至 85.97 百万桶，环比累库 0.79%；柴油商业库 存累库 0.10 百万桶至 98.68 百万桶，环比累库 0.10%；总成品油商业库存累库 0.78 百万桶 至 184.65 百万桶，环比累库 0.42%。 刘洁文 甲醇、尿素分析师 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 我们认为当前地缘风险已经逐步释放，油价已经极度偏离宏观与基本面指引。伊朗已展现出缓 解状态，但油价单日跌幅过大，我们认为当前油价已经来到合理区间，空单仍可持有但已不宜 追空。 ...

能源化工日报 2025-06-26 2025/06/26 原油早评： 能源化工组 甲醇 刘洁文 甲醇、尿素分析师 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 2025/06/26 甲醇早评： 甲醇 6 月 25 日 09 合约涨 12 元/吨，报 2391 元/吨，现货涨 10 元/ 吨，基差+259。地缘局势降温，原油大跌，甲醇盘面跌近 5%，外围风险逐步消散，后续预计价 格波动率将逐步回落，市场逐步回归自身供需基本面。近期甲醇的上涨使得其估值大幅抬升， 下游利润被大幅压缩，受海外因素影响，预计国内 8 月份进口相对有限，09 合约前港口难以大 幅累库，盘面基差维持强势。总体来看，国内供应维持高位，需求短期尚可，后续需求仍有走 弱风险，整体矛盾有限，单边参与难度较大，建议观望为主。 行情方面：WTI 主力原油期货收跌 0.07 美元，跌幅 0.11%，报 64.94 美元；布伦特主力原油期 货收跌 0.21 美元，跌幅 0.31%，报 67.61 美元；INE 主力原油期货收跌 5.20 元，跌幅 1.00%， 报 515.7 元。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Current geopolitical risks have gradually been released, and oil prices have deviated significantly from macro and fundamental guidance. Oil prices have reached a reasonable range, and short positions can still be held, but it is not advisable to chase short positions [2]. - For methanol, after the geopolitical situation cools down and crude oil prices drop sharply, the market will gradually return to its own supply - demand fundamentals. The overall contradiction is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. - For urea, the geopolitical sentiment has cooled down, and the overall supply - demand is still relatively loose. There is no unilateral trend in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. - For rubber, it is not pessimistic about rubber prices in the medium term. It is recommended to adopt a neutral approach, short - term operations, and pay attention to the band operation opportunities of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [11]. - For PVC, under the expectation of strong supply and weak demand, the main logic of the market is inventory reduction and weakening, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate downward [13]. - For PX, after the end of the maintenance season, the load remains high. In the third quarter, it is expected to continue to reduce inventory. After the geopolitical situation eases, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [21]. - For PTA, the end of the supply - side maintenance season slows down inventory reduction, and the demand side is under pressure. After the geopolitical situation eases, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [22]. - For ethylene glycol, the inventory reduction of ports is expected to slow down. The valuation is relatively high year - on - year, and the fundamentals are weak. Pay attention to the opportunity of short - side allocation, but beware of the risk of ethane imports [23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures fell $2.22, a decline of 3.30%, to $65.01; Brent main crude oil futures fell $2.83, a decline of 4.01%, to $67.82; INE main crude oil futures fell 53.70 yuan, a decline of 9.35%, to 520.9 yuan [1]. - **Data**: At Fujeirah Port, gasoline inventory decreased by 0.18 million barrels to 8.06 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23%; diesel inventory increased by 0.75 million barrels to 2.17 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 52.97%; fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.16 million barrels to 9.41 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 1.69%; total refined oil inventory increased by 0.41 million barrels to 19.64 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 2.11% [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On June 24, the 09 contract of methanol fell 125 yuan/ton to 2379 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 100 yuan/ton, with a basis of +261 [4]. - **Analysis**: After the geopolitical situation cools down and crude oil prices drop, the market will return to supply - demand fundamentals. The domestic supply remains high, and the demand may weaken in the future. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On June 24, the 09 contract of urea fell 13 yuan/ton to 1698 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of +42 [6]. - **Analysis**: The geopolitical sentiment has cooled down, and the overall supply - demand is relatively loose. There is no unilateral trend in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU fluctuated weakly. As of June 19, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 65.46%, 4.24 percentage points higher than last week and 7.31 percentage points higher than the same period last year; the operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 77.92%, 0.31 percentage points higher than last week and 0.81 percentage points lower than the same period last year [9][10]. - **Data**: As of June 15, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 127.8 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.3 tons, an increase of 0.26%. As of June 22, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 49.47 (+0.99) tons [10]. - **Analysis**: It is not pessimistic about rubber prices in the medium term. It is recommended to adopt a neutral approach, short - term operations, and pay attention to the band operation opportunities of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [11]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 52 yuan to 4844 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4740 (-70) yuan/ton, the basis was - 104 (-18) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 73 (0) yuan/ton [13]. - **Data**: The overall operating rate of PVC this week was 78.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6%. The factory inventory was 40.2 tons (+0.5), and the social inventory was 56.9 tons (-0.4) [13]. - **Analysis**: Under the expectation of strong supply and weak demand, the main logic of the market is inventory reduction and weakening, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate downward [13]. Benzene Ethylene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price and futures price of benzene ethylene both fell, and the basis strengthened. The cost of pure benzene decreased, and the supply was relatively abundant. The supply - side profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation was repaired, and the operating rate continued to rise [15]. - **Data**: The inventory of benzene ethylene ports increased. The overall operating rate of the demand - side three S was weak, but the operating rate of PS rebounded [15]. - **Analysis**: After the end of the Middle East conflict, it is expected that the price of benzene ethylene will maintain a volatile trend [15]. Polyolefin Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polyethylene fell. The end of the Iran - Israel conflict led to a significant decline in crude oil prices, affecting the import volume of polyethylene from Iran to China [17]. - **Data**: In June, the new production capacity on the supply side was small, and the pressure on the supply side would be relieved. The inventory of traders decreased marginally. The demand - side agricultural film orders decreased marginally, and the overall operating rate fluctuated downward [17]. - **Analysis**: The price of polyethylene is expected to maintain a volatile trend [17]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polypropylene fell. The profit of Shandong refineries declined, and the operating rate continued to decline, resulting in a blocked return of propylene supply [18]. - **Data**: In June, there was a planned production capacity of 2.2 million tons on the supply side, and the inventory of upstream production enterprises increased significantly. The demand - side operating rate is expected to decline seasonally [18]. - **Analysis**: It is expected that the price of polypropylene will be bearish in June [18]. PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 366 yuan to 6760 yuan, and the PX CFR fell 40 dollars to 859 dollars [20]. - **Data**: The Chinese load of PX was 85.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%; the Asian load was 74.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3%. The inventory at the end of April was 4.51 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 170,000 tons [20][21]. - **Analysis**: After the end of the maintenance season, the load remains high. In the third quarter, it is expected to continue to reduce inventory. After the geopolitical situation eases, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [21]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 236 yuan/ton to 4776 yuan, and the spot price in East China fell 160 yuan to 5100 yuan [22]. - **Data**: The operating rate of PTA was 79.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.9%. The social inventory on June 13 was 2.198 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 32,000 tons [22]. - **Analysis**: The end of the supply - side maintenance season slows down inventory reduction, and the demand side is under pressure. After the geopolitical situation eases, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [22]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 169 yuan/ton to 4332 yuan, and the spot price in East China fell 117 yuan to 4480 yuan [23]. - **Data**: The supply - side operating rate increased. The import arrival forecast was 62,000 tons, and the port inventory was 622,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons [23]. - **Analysis**: The inventory reduction of ports is expected to slow down. The valuation is relatively high year - on - year, and the fundamentals are weak. Pay attention to the opportunity of short - side allocation, but beware of the risk of ethane imports [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the polyolefin industry, oil price surges suppress the cost - end, profits are compressed to the lowest level of the year, and inventories are differentiated. PE is recommended for positive spreads, while PP is recommended for short - positions in the medium - term [21]. - In the methanol industry, due to geopolitical conflicts, the market has a strong long - position sentiment. Short - term strategies are recommended for positive spreads, and it is necessary to track the situation in Iran and MTO dynamics [30]. - In the PVC and caustic soda industry, caustic soda supply still exerts pressure, demand is weak, and there are inventory risks. PVC has short - term price increases but long - term supply - demand contradictions. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and take short - positions in the medium - term [32][35]. - In the urea industry, the short - term futures market is affected by rising Middle - East FOB prices and domestic factory export orders. The market is expected to be in high - level oscillations, with a bullish bias [38]. - In the styrene industry, short - term geopolitical factors drive prices up, but there is a possibility of supply - demand weakening. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for short - position opportunities in the medium - term [43]. - In the polyester industry, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, and bottle - chip have different supply - demand situations. Strategies vary from short - term strength to long - term supply - demand balance adjustments [47]. - In the crude oil industry, geopolitical premiums have declined, and the market is likely to continue high - level oscillations in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see on the spot side and capture volatility - narrowing opportunities on the options side [52]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Prices**: L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 closing prices all increased on June 18 compared to June 17, with increases ranging from 1.25% to 1.38% [21]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 1.83%, and social inventory decreased by 4.56%. PP enterprise inventory increased by 4.52%, and trader inventory increased by 5.31% [21]. - **Operation Rate**: PE device operation rate increased by 2.27%, and downstream weighted operation rate decreased by 1.00%. PP device operation rate increased by 2.1%, and powder operation rate decreased by 1.3% [21]. Methanol Industry - **Prices**: MA2601 and MA2509 closing prices increased on June 18 compared to June 17, with increases of 1.83% and 2.53% respectively. Port prices increased significantly [30]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 3.10%, port inventory decreased by 10.09%, and social inventory decreased by 7.52% [30]. - **Operation Rate**: Upstream domestic enterprise operation rate increased by 0.83%, and downstream external - procurement MTO device operation rate increased by 0.85% [30]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Prices**: PVC and caustic soda futures and spot prices had different changes on June 18 compared to June 17. Caustic soda export profit increased significantly, while PVC export profit decreased [32]. - **Supply**: Caustic soda industry operation rate decreased by 2.6%, and PVC total operation rate data was unavailable. PVC external - procurement calcium carbide method profit increased by 5.5% [33]. - **Demand**: Alumina industry operation rate increased by 2.0%, and PVC downstream product operation rates generally decreased [34][35]. - **Inventory**: Caustic soda had inventory differentiation, with East China de - stocking and Shandong stocking. PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 0.4%, and total social inventory decreased by 1.8% [35]. Urea Industry - **Prices**: Urea futures prices had different changes on June 18 compared to June 17. Spot prices in different regions also had slight fluctuations [38]. - **Supply**: Domestic urea daily output increased by 1.00%, and production factory operation rate increased by 1.00% [38]. - **Inventory**: Domestic urea factory inventory decreased by 3.49%, and port inventory remained unchanged [38]. Styrene Industry - **Raw Material Prices**: Prices of Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, CFR Northeast Asia ethylene, and CFR China pure benzene all increased on June 18 compared to June 17 [40]. - **Styrene Prices**: Styrene East China spot price and futures prices increased on June 18 compared to June 17 [41]. - **Operation Rate and Inventory**: Domestic pure benzene comprehensive operation rate increased by 2.9%, styrene operation rate increased by 2.1%. Port inventories of pure benzene and styrene decreased [43]. Polyester Industry - **Prices**: Prices of polyester products such as POY, FDY, DTY, and polyester chips increased on June 18 compared to June 17. PX, PTA, and MEG prices also had different changes [47]. - **Operation Rate**: Asian and Chinese PX operation rates, PTA operation rate, and MEG comprehensive operation rate had different changes [47]. - **Inventory**: MEG port inventory decreased, and PTA and MEG inventories had different trends [47]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices**: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices had different changes on June 19 compared to June 18. Product oil prices and cracking spreads also had fluctuations [52]. - **Inventory**: EIA data showed that last week's US crude oil inventory unexpectedly decreased, far exceeding market expectations [52]. - **Market Outlook**: Geopolitical premiums have declined, and the market is expected to continue high - level oscillations in the short - term [52].

2025/06/09 原油早评： 能源化工组 行情方面：截至周五，WTI 主力原油期货收涨 1.52 美元，涨幅 2.40%，报 64.77 美元；布伦特 主力原油期货收涨 1.36 美元，涨幅 2.08%，报 66.65 美元；INE 主力原油期货收涨 2.40 元， 涨幅 0.52%，报 466.1 元。 数据方面：欧洲 ARA 周度数据出炉，汽油库存环比去库 0.51 百万桶至 8.48 百万桶，环比 去库 5.66%；柴油库存环比累库 0.13 百万桶至 14.96 百万桶，环比累库 0.85%；燃料油库 存环比去库 0.47 百万桶至 6.83 百万桶，环比去库 6.44%；石脑油环比累库 0.28 百万桶 至 5.28 百万桶，环比累库 5.58%；航空煤油环比去库 0.05 百万桶至 6.63 百万桶，环比 去库 0.71%；总体成品油环比去库 0.62 百万桶至 42.19 百万桶，环比去库 1.45%。 张正华 高级分析师 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn 能源化工日报 2025-06-09 我们认为当前美 ...

能源化工日报 2025-06-06 2025/06/06 原油早评： 能源化工组 李 晶 首席分析师 从业资格号：F0283948 交易咨询号：Z0015498 0755-23375131 lijing@wkqh.cn 我们认为当前美伊谈判未见明确结果，且 OPEC 尚未体现出明确的增产数据，叠加页岩油的托 底效应，我们认为即使美伊谈判顺利，考虑当前的风险收益比并不适合追空，短期观望为主。 甲醇 2025/06/06 甲醇早评： 6 月 5 日 09 合约跌 11 元/吨，报 2259 元/吨，现货涨 8 元/吨，基差 +51。供应端随着前期检修装置回归开工开始见底回升，处于同期高位，企业利润高位持续回 落，预计短期供应仍将维持高位。需求端港口 MTO 装置开工回到高位，传统需求本周开工整体 有所回升，需求小幅好转，港口整体累库速度偏慢，价格表现偏强。内地供增需弱，价格走低， 港口与内地价差持续扩大。整体来看，后续国内供应依旧较为充裕且宏观环境偏弱，甲醇或有 进一步回落可能，单边建议关注逢高空配置为主。跨品种方面关注 09 合约 PP-3MA 价差的逢低 做多的机会。 尿素 2025/06/06 尿素早评： ...

能源化工日报 2025-06-05 2025/06/05 原油早评： 能源化工组 张正华 高级分析师 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn 我们认为当前美伊谈判未见明确结果，且 OPEC 尚未体现出明确的增产数据，叠加页岩油的托 底效应，我们认为即使美伊谈判顺利，考虑当前的风险收益比并不适合追空，短期观望为主。 甲醇 刘洁文 甲醇、尿素分析师 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 2025/06/05 甲醇早评：内地价格走弱叠加煤炭有所企稳，企业利润大幅回落，后续随着前期 检修装置的回归，国内供应将再度回到高位，6 月国内进口将显著走高，后续供应压力依旧较 大。需求端港口 MTO 装置重启，传统需求继续走弱为主，随着甲醇下跌，下游利润整体持续改 善，后续来看，随着甲醇高估值的修复，现货下跌幅度或有所放缓，但后续预计到来，预计整 体供需格局依旧偏弱，价格暂无上行驱动，单边建议关注逢高空配置为主。跨品种方面关注 09 合约 PP-3MA 价差的逢低做多的 ...

能源化工日报 2025-06-04 2025/06/04 原油早评： 能源化工组 李 晶 行情方面：WTI 主力原油期货收涨 0.30 美元，涨幅 0.48%，报 63.34 美元；布伦特主力原油期 货收涨 0.49 美元，涨幅 0.75%，报 65.61 美元；INE 主力原油期货收涨 18.40 元，涨幅 4.14%， 报 462.5 元。 lijing@wkqh.cn 数据方面：富查伊拉港口油品周度数据出炉， 汽油库存去库 0.33 百万桶至 6.67 百万桶，环 比去库 4.69%；柴油库存去库 0.61 百万桶至 1.06 百万桶，环比去库 36.81%；燃料油库存去库 1.92 百万桶至 8.68 百万桶，环比去库 18.14%；总成品油去库 2.87 百万桶至 16.41 百万桶， 环比去库 14.88%。 张正华 高级分析师 我们认为当前美伊谈判未见明确结果，且 OPEC 尚未体现出明确的增产数据，叠加页岩油的托 底效应，我们认为即使美伊谈判顺利，考虑当前的风险收益比并不适合追空，短期观望为主。 甲醇 zhangzh@wkqh.cn 刘洁文 甲醇、尿素分析师 2025/06/04 甲醇早评： ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The current oil price is in a high - valuation range, and OPEC's actual production is about to complete an increase, which will suppress the upper limit of oil prices. The oil price has entered a short - selling range on rallies [1]. - The supply pressure of methanol is still large, and the overall supply - demand pattern is weak. It is recommended to focus on short - selling on rallies. For cross - variety, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the PP - 3MA spread of the 09 contract on dips [3]. - For urea, the current supply remains high, and the demand is tepid. The price is expected to have no obvious trend, so it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - For rubber, the price has broken down. It is recommended to follow the trend, adopt a neutral or bearish mindset, conduct short - term operations, and enter and exit quickly. Pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [8][11]. - PVC is expected to remain weakly volatile in the short term, but beware of the rebound caused by the non - realization of weak export expectations [13]. - Polyethylene prices may remain volatile in June [15]. - Polypropylene prices are expected to be bearish in June [17]. - PX is expected to slow down inventory reduction in June and re - enter the inventory reduction cycle in the third quarter. It will oscillate at the current valuation level [19]. - PTA will continue to reduce inventory, and the processing fee is supported. It will oscillate at the current valuation level [20][21]. - Ethylene glycol is in the inventory reduction stage, but there is a risk of valuation correction [22]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $2.25, or 3.70%, to $63.04; Brent main crude oil futures rose $1.22, or 1.91%, to $65.12; INE main crude oil futures fell 15.20 yuan, or 3.31%, to 444.1 yuan [1]. - **Data**: China's weekly crude oil data showed that the crude oil arrival inventory increased by 0.43 million barrels to 206.82 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.21%; gasoline commercial inventory decreased by 2.91 million barrels to 84.87 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 3.32%; diesel commercial inventory decreased by 3.93 million barrels to 95.35 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 3.96%; total refined oil commercial inventory decreased by 6.84 million barrels to 180.22 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 3.66% [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On May 30, the 09 contract fell 10 yuan/ton to 2208 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 12 yuan/ton, with a basis of +39 [3]. - **Analysis**: The weakening of inland prices and the stabilization of coal have led to a significant decline in corporate profits. With the return of previously shut - down plants, domestic supply will return to a high level, and imports in June will increase significantly. The demand side shows that the port MTO plants have restarted, while traditional demand continues to weaken. Although the decline in methanol has improved the downstream profits, the overall supply - demand pattern is still weak, and there is no upward driving force for the price [3]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On May 30, the 09 contract fell 11 yuan/ton to 1773 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged, with a basis of +67 [3]. - **Analysis**: The domestic production has reached a record high and is expected to remain at a high level in the short term. The spot price fluctuates weakly, and corporate profits are low. On the demand side, the summer fertilizer sales of compound fertilizers are coming to an end, with high finished - product inventory pressure. Agricultural demand will gradually increase in the summer, and exports are expected to improve but with a limited range [3]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU fell sharply before the holiday, and Japanese rubber continued to fall during the holiday [7]. - **Analysis**: Bulls believe that the weather, rubber forest conditions, and relevant policies in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may contribute to rubber production cuts. Bears think that the macro - economic outlook has deteriorated, demand is weak and in the seasonal off - season, and high rubber prices will stimulate a large amount of new supply throughout the year, and the production cut may be less than expected [8]. - **Data**: As of May 30, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 64.78%, 0.16 percentage points lower than last week and 3.91 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 77.88%, 0.03 percentage points higher than last week and 2.40 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of May 18, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 134.2 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3 tons, or 0.96%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 81.8 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%. The total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 52.4 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. As of May 22, 2025, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao was 48.93 (- 0.14) tons [9]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 20 yuan to 4764 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4680 (+30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 84 (+10) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 39 (+11) yuan/ton [13]. - **Analysis**: The corporate profit is under great pressure, but the maintenance season is approaching the end, and the future production is expected to increase. There is also an expectation of new plant commissioning. The downstream operating rate is still weak compared with previous years and is entering the off - season, and export orders are weakening. The cost of calcium carbide has decreased, and the valuation support has weakened [13]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract closed at 7025 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton, the spot price was 7125 yuan/ton, unchanged, the basis was 100 yuan/ton, and it weakened by 53 yuan/ton [15]. - **Analysis**: OPEC+ may announce to maintain the production increase plan of 411,000 barrels per day in July. The upside space of PE valuation is limited. The new production capacity in the second quarter is large, and the supply side may be under pressure. The inventory of the upper and middle reaches is reducing, which has limited support for the price. The seasonal off - season is coming, and the demand for agricultural film orders is decreasing. The short - term contradiction has shifted from the cost - led decline to the supply - side production - commissioning - led decline. There is no new production capacity commissioning plan in June, so the price may remain volatile [15]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract closed at 6918 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton, the spot price was 7140 yuan/ton, unchanged, the basis was 222 yuan/ton, and it weakened by 25 yuan/ton [17]. - **Analysis**: OPEC+ may announce to maintain the production increase plan of 411,000 barrels per day in July. The spot price has not changed, but the decline is smaller than that of PE. There is a planned production capacity of 2.2 million tons to be put into operation in June, which is the most concentrated month of the year. The downstream operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The seasonal off - season is coming, so the price is expected to be bearish in June [17]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 170 yuan to 6618 yuan, PX CFR fell 10 dollars to 842 dollars, the basis was 355 yuan (+81), and the 9 - 1 spread was 230 yuan (- 18) [19]. - **Analysis**: The PX maintenance season is coming to an end. It is expected to slow down inventory reduction in June, but re - enter the inventory reduction cycle in the third quarter due to the commissioning of new PTA plants. The terminal textile and clothing exports are expected to be strong during the 90 - day tariff window period, the polyester inventory is still low, and the negative feedback pressure on the raw material side is small. The short - term valuation has risen to a moderately high level and is expected to oscillate at the current valuation [19]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 114 yuan to 4700 yuan, the East China spot price fell 5 yuan/ton to 4945 yuan, the basis was 219 yuan (+20), and the 9 - 1 spread was 186 yuan (- 12) [20]. - **Analysis**: The supply side is still in the maintenance season, the polyester inventory pressure on the demand side is small, and it is not expected to cut production significantly. The previous negative feedback expectation has disappeared. PTA will continue to reduce inventory, and the processing fee is supported. The absolute price will oscillate at the current valuation due to the strong PXN [20][21]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 10 yuan to 4349 yuan, the East China spot price rose 12 yuan to 4495 yuan, the basis was 154 (+3), and the 9 - 1 spread was 70 yuan (- 9) [22]. - **Analysis**: The industry fundamentals are still in the inventory reduction stage. Domestic and overseas plants are under maintenance, the downstream operating rate is high, and the arrival volume is low. It is expected that the port inventory will continue to decrease. The terminal exports are strong during the tariff window period, and the polyester inventory pressure is small, so there is no negative feedback pressure. However, due to the large valuation repair and the approaching end of the supply - side maintenance season, there is a risk of valuation correction [22].