1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, it's not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports to confirm the market [3]. - For methanol, the slow import unloading process has slowed port inventory accumulation. The market's main contradiction lies in the unexpected slow unloading due to previous sanctions and recent weather. Although there are potential bullish factors, the overall market structure is weaker than in previous years. It's recommended to wait and see [4]. - For urea, the supply - side device maintenance is over, and the demand - side compound fertilizer production has increased. The enterprise inventory accumulation has slowed down. The spot price has limited downward space, and there are still some positive factors to be released. It's recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [7]. - For rubber, the rubber price is strong. Short - term trading with quick entry and exit is recommended, and partial position - building for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is suggested [13]. - For PVC, the enterprise's comprehensive profit has declined to a low level, but the supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The export expectation is poor, and there is a continuous inventory accumulation pressure. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities in the medium - term [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is at a high level, and the price may stop falling periodically [20]. - For polyethylene, the cost - side supports the rebound of crude oil prices. The inventory is being reduced at a high level, and the price may maintain a low - level shock [23]. - For polypropylene, the cost - side supply is in an oversupply pattern, and the overall inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction [26]. - For PX, the current load is high, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance operations. The inventory is difficult to continuously reduce, and it mainly follows the fluctuation of crude oil [29]. - For PTA, the short - term supply - side maintenance has decreased, and there is a slight inventory accumulation. The demand - side polyester load is expected to remain high, but there is limited room for improvement. The PXN is under pressure [30]. - For ethylene glycol, the domestic supply is high, and the port is expected to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities [32]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 1.40 yuan/barrel, a 0.32% decline, at 437.70 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 3.00 yuan/ton, a 0.11% decline, at 2647.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 13.00 yuan/ton, a 0.42% decline, at 3072.00 yuan/ton. In the Fujeirah port, gasoline, fuel oil, and total refined oil inventories increased, while diesel inventory decreased [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal, the short - term oil price is not easy to be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see for now [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang increased by 3, Inner Mongolia and southern Shandong remained stable. The 01 - contract on the futures market increased by 16 yuan to 2257 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 47. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 2 to - 64 [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The slow import unloading process has slowed port inventory accumulation. The market's main contradiction is the unexpected slow unloading. There are potential bullish factors, but the overall market structure is weak. It's recommended to wait and see [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Prices in Shandong and Henan decreased by 10, Hubei remained stable. The 01 - contract on the futures market increased by 9 yuan to 1644 yuan, with a basis of - 55. The 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged at - 73 [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - side device maintenance is over, and the demand - side compound fertilizer production has increased. The enterprise inventory accumulation has slowed down. The spot price has limited downward space, and there are still some positive factors to be released. It's recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The stock index and industrial products rose, and the rubber price also increased significantly. The long - side of natural rubber believes in limited production growth, seasonal price increases, and improved demand expectations; the short - side believes in uncertain macro - expectations, weak demand, and less - than - expected supply benefits. As of October 23, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 65.29%, and that of semi - steel tires was 74.49%. The semi - steel tire export orders slowed down. As of October 19, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 1050000 tons, a 2.8% decrease [9][10][11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The rubber price is strong. Short - term trading with quick entry and exit is recommended, and partial position - building for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is suggested [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract increased by 59 yuan to 4775 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4620 (+20) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 155 (- 39) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 286 (+2) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate was 76.6%, a 0.1% decrease; the demand - side downstream operating rate was 49.9%, a 1.3% increase. The factory inventory was 334000 tons (- 27000), and the social inventory was 1035000 tons (+1000) [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The enterprise's comprehensive profit has declined to a low level, but the supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The export expectation is poor, and there is a continuous inventory accumulation pressure. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities in the medium - term [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5410 yuan/ton, a 116 - yuan decline; the closing price of the active contract was 5526 yuan/ton, a 116 - yuan decline. The spot price of styrene was 6450 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan decline; the closing price of the active contract was 6513 yuan/ton, a 47 - yuan increase. The upstream operating rate was 69.25%, a 2.63% decrease; the Jiangsu port inventory was 202500 tons, an increase of 60000 tons. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate was 42.77%, a 0.16% decrease [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is at a high level, and the price may stop falling periodically [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 7009 yuan/ton, a 24 - yuan increase; the spot price was 7010 yuan/ton, a 15 - yuan decline. The upstream operating rate was 81.28%, a 0.56% decrease. The production enterprise inventory was 514600 tons, a decrease of 14900 tons; the trader inventory was 50000 tons, a decrease of 400 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 45.75%, a 0.83% increase [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost - side supports the rebound of crude oil prices. The inventory is being reduced at a high level, and the price may maintain a low - level shock [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6685 yuan/ton, a 28 - yuan increase; the spot price was 6650 yuan/ton, unchanged. The upstream operating rate was 75.17%, a 0.16% increase. The production enterprise inventory was 638500 tons, a decrease of 40200 tons; the trader inventory was 220000 tons, a decrease of 18600 tons; the port inventory was 66800 tons, a decrease of 1100 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 52.37%, a 0.52% increase [24][25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost - side supply is in an oversupply pattern, and the overall inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract increased by 34 yuan to 6652 yuan. The PX CFR increased by 4 dollars to 818 dollars. The Chinese load was 85.9%, a 1% increase; the Asian load was 78.5%, a 0.5% increase. The PTA load was 78.8%, a 2.8% increase. In mid - and early October, South Korea's PX exports to China were 256000 tons, a 19000 - ton increase year - on - year [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current load is high, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance operations. The inventory is difficult to continuously reduce, and it mainly follows the fluctuation of crude oil [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract increased by 22 yuan to 4636 yuan. The East China spot price was unchanged at 4535 yuan. The PTA load was 78.8%, a 2.8% increase. The downstream load was 91.4%, unchanged. On October 24, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2201000 tons, an increase of 25000 tons [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term supply - side maintenance has decreased, and there is a slight inventory accumulation. The demand - side polyester load is expected to remain high, but there is limited room for improvement. The PXN is under pressure [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract increased by 31 yuan to 4100 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 15 yuan to 4152 yuan. The supply - side load was 73.3%, a 3.7% decrease. The downstream load was 91.4%, unchanged. The import arrival forecast was 198000 tons, and the East China departure on October 28 was 850 tons. The port inventory was 523000 tons, a decrease of 56000 tons [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply is high, and the port is expected to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities [32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices are not advisable to be overly bearish. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports to confirm the price trend [3]. - For methanol, the slow import unloading process has slowed down port inventory accumulation. The market's expectation of reduced imports has increased, and the disk price has stabilized. However, the market structure is weaker than in previous years, and it is recommended to wait and see [5]. - For urea, the supply - side device maintenance has returned, and the demand - side compound fertilizer production has increased. The inventory accumulation speed of enterprises has slowed down. The market is waiting for positive news, and it is recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [8]. - For rubber, the rubber price is oscillating. It is recommended to close short - term long positions and wait and see. Partial positions can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [13]. - For PVC, the domestic supply - demand situation is weak, with strong supply and weak demand. Although the valuation has declined to a low level, it is still difficult to reverse the situation, and it is recommended to consider short - position opportunities in the medium term [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene have declined. The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is high, and the price may stop falling periodically [16]. - For polyethylene, the futures price has declined. The cost - side supports the rebound of crude oil prices. The overall inventory is decreasing from a high level, and the price may maintain a low - level oscillation [19]. - For polypropylene, the futures price has declined. The cost - side supply is in an oversupply situation, and the overall inventory pressure is high. It is recommended to wait and see [22]. - For PX, the PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance operations. The PX inventory is difficult to continuously decline. The valuation is at a neutral level and mainly follows the trend of crude oil [25]. - For PTA, the short - term supply - side maintenance volume has decreased, and the inventory is slightly increasing. The demand - side polyester load is expected to remain high, but there is limited room for improvement. The valuation is affected by PTA maintenance, and it is recommended to pay attention to the impact of potential production - cut signals [26]. - For ethylene glycol, the domestic supply is high, and the import volume is increasing. The port inventory is expected to continue to increase in the fourth quarter. The valuation is relatively high, and it is recommended to consider short - position opportunities [28]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE main crude oil futures rose 11.00 yuan/barrel, a 2.52% increase, to 447.20 yuan/barrel. The high - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 56.00 yuan/ton, a 2.13% increase, to 2691.00 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 71.00 yuan/ton, a 2.32% increase, to 3135.00 yuan/ton. Singapore's ESG oil product weekly data showed that gasoline inventory decreased by 0.02 million barrels to 13.61 million barrels, diesel inventory increased by 5.11 million barrels to 14.77 million barrels, fuel oil inventory decreased by 2.04 million barrels to 23.03 million barrels, and the total refined oil inventory increased by 3.06 million barrels to 51.41 million barrels [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices are not advisable to be overly bearish. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports to confirm the price trend [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 20 yuan, the price in Inner Mongolia remained stable, the price in southern Shandong decreased by 35 yuan, the 01 contract on the disk decreased by 27 yuan to 2241 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 31. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 5 to - 62 [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The slow import unloading process has slowed down port inventory accumulation. The domestic production has declined, and the traditional demand has weakened. The market's expectation of reduced imports has increased, and the disk price has stabilized. However, the market structure is weaker than in previous years, and it is recommended to wait and see [5]. Urea - **Market Information**: The prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hubei remained stable. The 01 contract on the disk decreased by 5 yuan to 1635 yuan, and the basis was - 55. The 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged at - 73 [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - side device maintenance has returned, and the demand - side compound fertilizer production has increased. The inventory accumulation speed of enterprises has slowed down. The market is waiting for positive news, and it is recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price was oscillating. The long - position holders of natural rubber RU believed that factors such as weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, might limit rubber production increase, and there were positive expectations for demand. The short - position holders believed that the macro - economic outlook was uncertain, demand was in a seasonal off - peak, and the supply increase might be less than expected. As of October 23, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 65.29%, up 0.21 percentage points from the previous week and 2.81 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.49%, up 0.12 percentage points from the previous week but down 4.53 percentage points from the same period last year. The semi - steel tire export orders slowed down. As of October 19, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 1050000 tons, a decrease of 30000 tons, or 2.8%. The inventory in Qingdao was 427500 (- 19100) tons [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The rubber price is oscillating. It is recommended to close short - term long positions and wait and see. Partial positions can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 30 yuan to 4716 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4600 (0) yuan/ton, the basis was - 116 (+ 30) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 288 (- 2) yuan/ton. The cost - side calcium carbide price in Wuhai was 2500 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 800 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of ethylene was 765 (0) US dollars/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 76.6%, a decrease of 0.1% compared to the previous period, with the calcium carbide method at 74.4% (a decrease of 0.3%) and the ethylene method at 81.6% (an increase of 0.4%). The overall downstream operating rate was 49.9%, an increase of 1.3%. The in - factory inventory was 334000 tons (- 27000), and the social inventory was 1035000 tons (+ 1000) [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply - demand situation is weak, with strong supply and weak demand. Although the valuation has declined to a low level, it is still difficult to reverse the situation, and it is recommended to consider short - position opportunities in the medium term [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side price of pure benzene in East China was 5485 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active contract of pure benzene was 5495 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The basis of pure benzene was - 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 74 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 6450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active contract of styrene was 6466 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton. The basis was - 16 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 109.37 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton. The profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 539.15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton. The spread between EB contract 1 and contract 2 was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.25%, a decrease of 2.63%. The inventory in Jiangsu ports was 202500 tons, an increase of 60000 tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 42.77%, a decrease of 0.16%. The operating rate of PS remained unchanged at 53.80%, the operating rate of EPS decreased by 0.54% to 61.98%, and the operating rate of ABS decreased by 0.30% to 72.80% [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene have declined. The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is high, and the price may stop falling periodically [16]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6985 yuan/ton, a decrease of 39 yuan/ton. The spot price was 7035 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 39 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.28%, a decrease of 0.56%. The weekly inventory of production enterprises was 514600 tons, a decrease of 14900 tons, and the inventory of traders was 50000 tons, a decrease of 400 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 45.75%, an increase of 0.83%. The LL1 - 5 spread was - 77 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures price has declined. The cost - side supports the rebound of crude oil prices. The overall inventory is decreasing from a high level, and the price may maintain a low - level oscillation [19]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6657 yuan/ton, a decrease of 42 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6650 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 7 yuan/ton, an increase of 42 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 75.17%, an increase of 0.16%. The weekly inventory of production enterprises was 638500 tons, a decrease of 40200 tons, the inventory of traders was 220000 tons, a decrease of 18600 tons, and the port inventory was 66800 tons, a decrease of 1100 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 52.37%, an increase of 0.52%. The LL - PP spread was 328 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton [20][21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures price has declined. The cost - side supply is in an oversupply situation, and the overall inventory pressure is high. It is recommended to wait and see [22]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract decreased by 8 yuan to 6618 yuan, the PX CFR price decreased by 7 US dollars to 814 US dollars. The basis was 30 yuan (- 51), and the 1 - 3 spread was - 16 yuan (+ 18). The PX load in China was 85.9%, an increase of 1%, and the Asian load was 78.5%, an increase of 0.5%. A 540000 - ton plant of PTTG in Thailand was under maintenance, and the maintenance in Saudi Arabia was postponed. The PTA load was 78.8%, an increase of 2.8%. Yisheng Ningbo slightly reduced its load, some plants restored their loads, and a new plant of Dushan Energy was put into operation. In the first and middle of October, South Korea exported 256000 tons of PX to China, an increase of 19000 tons compared to the same period last year. The inventory at the end of August was 3918000 tons, an increase of 19000 tons compared to the previous month. The PXN was 243 US dollars (+ 9), and the naphtha crack spread was 101 US dollars (- 4) [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance operations. The PX inventory is difficult to continuously decline. The valuation is at a neutral level and mainly follows the trend of crude oil [25]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 2 yuan to 4614 yuan. The spot price in East China increased by 30 yuan to 4535 yuan. The basis was - 81 yuan (unchanged), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 62 yuan (- 2). The PTA load was 78.8%, an increase of 2.8%. Yisheng Ningbo slightly reduced its load, some plants restored their loads, and a new plant of Dushan Energy was put into operation. The downstream load was 91.4%, unchanged. The terminal texturing load increased by 4% to 84%, and the loom load increased by 6% to 75%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on October 17 was 2176000 tons, an increase of 16000 tons. The spot processing fee of PTA increased by 69 yuan to 174 yuan, and the processing fee on the disk increased by 4 yuan to 273 yuan [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term supply - side maintenance volume has decreased, and the inventory is slightly increasing. The demand - side polyester load is expected to remain high, but there is limited room for improvement. The valuation is affected by PTA maintenance, and it is recommended to pay attention to the impact of potential production - cut signals [26]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract decreased by 40 yuan to 4069 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased by 16 yuan to 4167 yuan. The basis was 76 yuan (- 8), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 83 yuan (unchanged). The supply - side operating rate of ethylene glycol was 73.3%, a decrease of 3.7%, with the synthetic gas method at 82.2% (an increase of 0.8%) and the ethylene method at 68.2% (a decrease of 6.3%). There were few changes in synthetic gas plants. In the oil - chemical sector, Fulian and Shenghong were under maintenance, CNOOC Shell restarted, and Zhongke Refining and Chemical had a short - term shutdown and then resumed. Overseas, Shell in the United States restarted. The downstream load was 91.4%, unchanged. The terminal texturing load increased by 4% to 84%, and the loom load increased by 6% to 75%. The forecast of imported arrivals was 198000 tons, and the departure volume from East China ports on October 27 was 8600 tons. The port inventory was 523000 tons, a decrease of 56000 tons. The profit of naphtha - based production was - 628 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 561 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 261 yuan. The cost - side ethylene price remained unchanged at 765 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth steam coal fines increased to 680 yuan [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply is high, and the import volume is increasing. The port inventory is expected to continue to increase in the fourth quarter. The valuation is relatively high, and it is recommended to consider short - position opportunities [28].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For oil prices, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, it's not advisable to be overly bearish in the short - term. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see as the OPEC's export price - support intention needs to be tested [3] - For methanol, due to slow import unloading, slowed port inventory accumulation, and potential supply disruptions from winter gas - head device shutdowns, the downward momentum of the futures price is expected to be limited. It's recommended to wait and see [6] - For urea, with supply - side device maintenance resuming and demand - side compound fertilizer production increasing, the inventory build - up speed has slowed. Although consumption lacks positive factors, there are still some potential positive factors in the future. It's recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [10] - For rubber, the upward momentum driven by the typhoon will weaken. With different views from bulls and bears, it's recommended to gradually exit short - term long positions, wait and see, and partially build positions for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12][13][17] - For PVC, the supply - demand situation is poor with strong supply and weak demand. Although the valuation has declined to a low level, it's difficult to support the current situation. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities in the medium - term [20] - For pure benzene and styrene, the BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is at a high level, and its price may stop falling periodically. It's recommended to wait and see [23] - For polyethylene, the cost - side supports the rebound of crude oil prices. The inventory is being reduced from a high level, and the price may maintain a low - level oscillation. It's recommended to wait and see [26] - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand, the inventory pressure is high. The cost - side supply surplus suppresses the futures price. It's recommended to wait and see [29] - For PX, with high load and difficult inventory reduction, and PTA's low processing fee having a potential negative feedback risk, it's recommended to wait and see [30] - For PTA, short - term supply will accumulate slightly, and the processing fee is difficult to expand. With potential negative feedback risks, it's recommended to wait and see [31][32] - For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, and the inventory is expected to accumulate in the fourth quarter. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities [33] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main crude oil futures contract on INE closed up 10.90 yuan/barrel, a 2.40% increase, at 464.90 yuan/barrel. European ARA weekly data showed that the total refined oil inventory decreased by 2.44 million barrels to 43.83 million barrels, a 5.28% decrease [2] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, it's not advisable to be overly bearish in the short - term. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see as the OPEC's export price - support intention needs to be tested [3] Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 10 yuan, remained stable in Inner Mongolia, decreased by 2.5 yuan in southern Shandong. The 01 contract on the futures market decreased by 32 yuan, at 2272 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 44. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 8, at - 45 [5] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Due to slow import unloading, the port inventory accumulation has slowed. The current port inventory is 151.22 tons, a 2.08 - ton increase. The domestic production has declined, and the overall traditional demand has weakened. Although there are potential positive factors, it's recommended to wait and see [6] Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price increased by 20 yuan in Shandong and Henan, remained stable in Hubei. The 01 contract on the futures market increased by 4 yuan, at 1642 yuan, with a basis of - 82. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 5, at - 77 [8] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With supply - side device maintenance resuming and demand - side compound fertilizer production increasing, the inventory build - up speed has slowed. Although consumption lacks positive factors, there are still some potential positive factors in the future. It's recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [10] Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price rose due to the typhoon and positive factors in the stock market, but the positive impact of the typhoon will weaken. Bulls and bears have different views on the market [12][13] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It's recommended to gradually exit short - term long positions, wait and see, and partially build positions for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [17] PVC - **Market Information**: The 01 contract decreased by 22 yuan, at 4708 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4600 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan decrease. The basis was - 108 yuan/ton, a 12 - yuan increase. The 1 - 5 spread was - 299 yuan/ton, a 1 - yuan increase. The overall production rate was 76.6%, a 0.1% decrease. The factory inventory was 33.4 tons, a 2.7 - ton decrease, and the social inventory was 103.5 tons, a 0.1 - ton increase [17] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand situation is poor with strong supply and weak demand. Although the valuation has declined to a low level, it's difficult to support the current situation. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities in the medium - term [20] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene decreased by 12 yuan/ton, and the futures price also decreased. The spot price of styrene increased by 100 yuan/ton, while the futures price decreased. The BZN spread decreased by 11.63 yuan/ton, and the EB non - integrated device profit decreased by 5 yuan/ton [22] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is at a high level, and its price may stop falling periodically [23] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price decreased by 30 yuan/ton, the spot price increased by 15 yuan/ton, and the basis strengthened by 45 yuan/ton. The upstream production rate was 81.28%, a 0.56% decrease. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 1.49 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.04 tons [25] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost - side supports the rebound of crude oil prices. The inventory is being reduced from a high level, and the price may maintain a low - level oscillation [26] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price decreased by 29 yuan/ton, the spot price decreased by 15 yuan/ton, and the basis strengthened by 14 yuan/ton. The upstream production rate was 75.17%, a 0.16% increase. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.02 tons, the trader inventory decreased by 1.86 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.11 tons [28] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Under the background of weak supply and demand, the inventory pressure is high. The cost - side supply surplus suppresses the futures price [29] PX - **Market Information**: The 01 contract increased by 26 yuan, at 6522 yuan. The PX CFR increased by 4 dollars, at 815 dollars. The Chinese load was 85.9%, a 1% increase, and the Asian load was 78.5%, a 0.5% increase. The PTA load was 78.8%, a 2.8% increase [29] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With high load and difficult inventory reduction, and PTA's low processing fee having a potential negative feedback risk, it's recommended to wait and see [30] PTA - **Market Information**: The 01 contract increased by 10 yuan, at 4518 yuan. The spot price in East China increased by 25 yuan, at 4450 yuan. The PTA load was 78.8%, a 2.8% increase. The downstream load was 91.4%, unchanged. The social inventory on October 17 was 217.6 tons, a 1.6 - ton increase [30] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term supply will accumulate slightly, and the processing fee is difficult to expand. With potential negative feedback risks, it's recommended to wait and see [31][32] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The 01 contract decreased by 18 yuan, at 4077 yuan. The spot price in East China increased by 14 yuan, at 4187 yuan. The supply - side load was 73.3%, a 3.7% decrease. The port inventory was 57.9 tons, a 3.8 - ton increase [32] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is high, and the inventory is expected to accumulate in the fourth quarter. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities [33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For oil prices, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet expanding, it's not advisable to be overly bearish in the short - term. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see for now and verify OPEC's export price - support intention when oil prices fall [2]. - For methanol, the import unloading process is slow, port inventory accumulation has slowed. The market's key contradiction is the unexpected import reduction. There are potential bullish factors, and it's recommended to wait and see [3]. - For urea, the supply - side device maintenance is over, and demand from compound fertilizer production has increased. High inventory has reduced price volatility, and it's recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities on dips [7]. - For rubber, prices have risen due to typhoon and stock - market factors. Bulls and bears hold different views. It's recommended to set a stop - loss for short - term long positions and partially build positions for the RU2601 - RU2609 spread hedge [9][10][12]. - For PVC, the supply - demand situation is poor with strong supply and weak demand, and it's recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies in the medium - term [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the BZN spread has room for upward repair. Styrene port inventory is high, but prices may stop falling in stages [19]. - For polyethylene, prices may remain range - bound at low levels. Cost - side support has emerged, but high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market [22]. - For polypropylene, in a situation of weak supply and demand, high inventory and high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market [25]. - For PX, the load is high, and it's difficult to reduce inventory. It mainly follows oil price fluctuations, and it's recommended to wait and see [26]. - For PTA, the supply is increasing slightly, and demand shows signs of weakness. It's recommended to wait and see [27]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry is expected to continue to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter, and it's recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies [29]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Energy - **Market Quotes**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 11.00 yuan/barrel, or 2.52%. High - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 56.00 yuan/ton, or 2.13%, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 71.00 yuan/ton, or 2.32%. US EIA data showed that commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 0.96 million barrels to 422.82 million barrels, SPR increased by 0.82 million barrels to 408.56 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 2.15 million barrels to 216.68 million barrels, diesel inventories decreased by 1.48 million barrels to 115.55 million barrels, fuel oil inventories increased by 0.50 million barrels to 21.93 million barrels, and aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 1.49 million barrels to 42.93 million barrels [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On October 24, 2025, the price in Taicang increased by 6 yuan, that in Inner Mongolia increased by 2.5 yuan, and that in southern Shandong remained stable. The 01 - contract price on the futures market increased by 31 yuan to 2292 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 44. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 2 to - 37 [2]. - **Strategy**: Import unloading is slow, port inventory accumulation has slowed. The current port inventory is 151.22 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.08 tons. Domestic production has declined, and port olefin production has remained stable. Traditional demand has generally weakened. It's recommended to wait and see [3]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On October 24, 2025, the spot price in Shandong, Henan, and Hubei increased by 10 yuan. The 01 - contract price on the futures market increased by 17 yuan to 1638 yuan, and the basis was - 98. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 2 to - 72 [5]. - **Strategy**: Supply - side device maintenance is over, and demand from compound fertilizer production has increased. Enterprises' inventory accumulation has slowed, with the current inventory at 163.02 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.48 tons. It's recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities on dips [7]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: On October 24, 2025, rubber prices rose due to typhoon and stock - market factors. The typhoon affected rubber - producing areas in Hainan, Yunnan, Vietnam, and Thailand [9]. - **Strategy**: Bulls believe in limited production growth, seasonal price increases, and improved demand in China. Bears are concerned about macro - uncertainty, seasonal weak demand, and potential under - performance of supply - side positives. It's recommended to set a stop - loss for short - term long positions and partially build positions for the RU2601 - RU2609 spread hedge [10][12]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: On October 24, 2025, the PVC01 contract rose 11 yuan to 4730 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4610 (+10) yuan/ton, the basis was - 120 (-1) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 300 (+2) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate was 76.7%, a week - on - week decrease of 5.9%. Factory inventory was 36 tons (-2.3), and social inventory was 103.4 tons (-0.3) [14]. - **Strategy**: The enterprise's comprehensive profit has declined to a low level this year. Supply - side maintenance is limited, production is at a historical high, and new devices are about to start trial operation. Domestic demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies in the medium - term [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Quotes**: On October 24, 2025, the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active contract was 5604 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 6600 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active contract was 6545 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 71.88%, a decrease of 1.73%. Jiangsu port inventory increased by 0.60 tons to 20.25 tons [18]. - **Strategy**: The BZN spread has room for upward repair. Styrene port inventory is high, but prices may stop falling in stages [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: On October 24, 2025, the closing price of the main contract was 6999 yuan/ton, an increase of 63 yuan/ton. The spot price was 7000 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 80.98%, a decrease of 0.09%. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 1.49 tons to 51.46 tons, and trader inventory decreased by 0.04 tons to 5.00 tons [21]. - **Strategy**: Prices may remain range - bound at low levels. Cost - side support has emerged, but high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: On October 24, 2025, the closing price of the main contract was 6691 yuan/ton, an increase of 72 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6615 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 75.3%, an increase of 0.7%. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.02 tons to 63.85 tons, trader inventory decreased by 1.86 tons to 22.00 tons, and port inventory decreased by 0.11 tons to 6.68 tons [24]. - **Strategy**: In a situation of weak supply and demand, high inventory and high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market [25]. PX, PTA, and MEG PX - **Market Quotes**: On October 24, 2025, the PX01 contract rose 46 yuan to 6496 yuan. The CFR price rose 13 dollars to 811 dollars. The Chinese operating rate was 84.9%, a decrease of 2.5%. The Asian operating rate was 78%, a decrease of 1.9%. Some devices were under maintenance. In mid - and early - October, South Korea's PX exports to China were 25.6 tons, an increase of 1.9 tons year - on - year [25]. - **Strategy**: The load is high, and it's difficult to reduce inventory. It mainly follows oil price fluctuations, and it's recommended to wait and see [26]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: On October 24, 2025, the PTA01 contract rose 26 yuan to 4508 yuan. The East - China spot price rose 55 yuan to

Group 1: Report Core Views - Although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not surging, oil prices are not easy to be overly bearish in the short - term. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now [2] - For methanol, the import unloading is delayed, leading to a short - term decline in arrivals and a reduction in port inventory. Domestic supply drops slightly, coal prices rebound, and demand remains weak. The pattern of high inventory and weak reality persists, and it is advisable to wait and see, with potential upward drivers from winter gas restrictions [4] - Regarding urea, short - term malfunctioning devices increase, production declines, and demand is weak. The price is at a low level with low valuation, and it is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. It is recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities on dips [7] - Rubber prices are rising due to typhoons and stock market bullishness. Bulls and bears have different views. It is recommended to set stop - losses for short - term long positions and partially build positions for the RU2601 - RU2609 spread [12][14] - For PVC, the enterprise's comprehensive profit is at a low level, supply is high, demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. It is recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies [15] - In the case of pure benzene and styrene, the cost side shows a potential supply surplus. The BZN spread has room for upward repair, and styrene prices may stop falling stage - by - stage [19] - For polyethylene, the cost side supports the price, but high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [22] - For polypropylene, the cost side may face an expanding supply surplus, supply pressure is high, and it is in a situation of weak supply and demand with high inventory [25] - For PX, the load is high, downstream PTA has many short - term overhauls, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [28] - For PTA, the supply side may accumulate inventory slightly, demand is showing signs of weakness, and it is recommended to wait and see [29] - For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, imports are increasing, and ports are accumulating inventory. It is recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies [31] Group 2: Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report Group 3: Market Information Summaries Crude Oil - INE's main crude oil futures rose 11.00 yuan/barrel, a 2.52% increase, to 447.20 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also had price increases [9] Methanol - The price in Taicang decreased by 20 yuan, in Inner Mongolia increased by 10 yuan, and remained stable in southern Shandong. The 01 - contract of the futures market decreased by 7 yuan to 2261 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 19 [3] Urea - Spot prices in Shandong and Henan remained stable. The 01 - contract of the futures market increased by 12 yuan to 1621 yuan, with a basis of - 91 [6] Rubber - Rubber prices rose due to the influence of Typhoon Fengshen on major production areas. As of October 16, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong increased by 18.70 percentage points week - on - week, and that of semi - steel tires increased by 23.50 percentage points week - on - week [12] PVC - The 01 - contract of PVC rose 20 yuan to 4719 yuan. The overall operating rate was 76.7%, a 5.9% decrease from the previous period. Factory and social inventories decreased [14] Pure Benzene and Styrene - The spot price of pure benzene decreased by 118 yuan/ton, and the futures price also decreased. The spot price of styrene increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the futures price increased by 100 yuan/ton [18] Polyethylene - The main - contract closing price of polyethylene rose 53 yuan/ton to 6936 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 25 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate decreased slightly, and inventories decreased [21] Polypropylene - The main - contract closing price of polypropylene rose 36 yuan/ton to 6619 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged. The upstream operating rate decreased, and inventories decreased [23] PX - The 01 - contract of PX rose 118 yuan to 6450 yuan. The Asian and Chinese operating loads decreased. Some domestic and overseas devices were under maintenance [27] PTA - The 01 - contract of PTA rose 68 yuan to 4482 yuan. The operating load increased by 1.6%, and downstream load decreased slightly. Social inventory increased [28] Ethylene Glycol - The 01 - contract of ethylene glycol rose 47 yuan to 4051 yuan. The supply - side operating load increased, downstream load decreased slightly, and port inventory increased [30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices are not easy to be overly bearish. A low - buying and high - selling range strategy is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now to test OPEC's export price - support willingness [3]. - For methanol, the peak - season demand has fallen short, and the pattern of high domestic inventory and weak reality remains. Due to the delay in the unloading of imported goods, the port pressure has eased. Future upward price drivers may come from the expectation of winter gas restrictions. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - For urea, the domestic market lacks effective positive factors, but the price is at a low level with low valuation. It is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range, and it is recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [8]. - For rubber, the rubber price has stabilized in the short term. It is recommended to set a stop - loss for short - term long positions and enter and exit quickly. Partial position - building is suggested for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [15]. - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong and demand is weak, with a poor export outlook. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium term [18][20]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the styrene price may stop falling in stages as the port inventory is being reduced significantly during the seasonal peak season [23]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to remain in low - level fluctuations as the long - term contradiction shifts to the South Korean ethylene clearance policy [26]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure, the cost - side oversupply pattern suppresses the market [29]. - For PX, there is currently a lack of driving factors, and PXN is difficult to expand actively. It is recommended to wait and see [30]. - For PTA, the supply is increasing slightly, and the demand shows signs of weakness. It is recommended to wait and see [31]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry is expected to continue to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter, and it is recommended to short - sell on rallies [33]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed down 3.80 yuan/barrel, a 0.86% decline, at 435.80 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 2.00 yuan/ton, a 0.08% increase, at 2646.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures fell 17.00 yuan/ton, a 0.55% decline, at 3079.00 yuan/ton. China's weekly crude oil data showed that the arrival inventory increased by 1.16 million barrels to 212.97 million barrels, a 0.55% increase; gasoline commercial inventory increased by 1.53 million barrels to 89.14 million barrels, a 1.75% increase; diesel commercial inventory decreased by 0.10 million barrels to 101.21 million barrels, a 0.10% decrease; total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 1.43 million barrels to 190.35 million barrels, a 0.76% increase [2]. - **Strategy View**: Maintain a low - buying and high - selling range strategy, but wait and see for now to test OPEC's export price - support willingness [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang increased by 3 yuan, while in Inner Mongolia it decreased by 27.5 yuan and in southern Shandong by 17.5 yuan. The 01 contract on the futures market decreased by 6 yuan, at 2266 yuan/ton, and the basis was +9. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 8, at - 26 [4]. - **Strategy View**: Due to port fees, the unloading of imported goods has been delayed, leading to a short - term decline in arrivals and a reduction in port inventory. Domestic supply has decreased slightly, and coal prices have rebounded, reducing coal - to - methanol profits. Demand remains weak. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in Shandong and Henan remained stable. The 01 contract on the futures market decreased by 2 yuan, at 1600 yuan, and the basis was - 70. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 5, at - 75 [7]. - **Strategy View**: The number of short - term faulty devices has increased, and the operating rate has decreased significantly. The cost support is expected to gradually strengthen. Demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range, and it is recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price has been oscillating and recovering. Typhoon Fengshen is approaching, which will affect rubber - producing areas in Hainan, Yunnan, Vietnam, and Thailand. The long - side believes in factors such as limited rubber production increase and seasonal price increases, while the short - side is concerned about uncertain macro - expectations and weak demand [11][12]. - **Strategy View**: The rubber price has stabilized in the short term. It is recommended to set a stop - loss for short - term long positions and enter and exit quickly. Partial position - building is suggested for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [15]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract increased by 14 yuan, at 4702 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4600 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 102 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 305 yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC decreased by 5.9% to 76.7%. The downstream operating rate decreased by 8.6% to 39.2%. Factory and social inventories decreased [17]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply is strong and demand is weak, with a poor export outlook. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium term [18][20]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side price of East China pure benzene increased by 124 yuan/ton to 5585 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 6450 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate decreased by 1.73% to 71.88%, and the Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 0.54 million tons to 19.65 million tons. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate increased by 0.27% to 38.81% [22]. - **Strategy View**: The styrene price may stop falling in stages as the port inventory is being reduced significantly during the seasonal peak season [23]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price increased by 5 yuan/ton to 6879 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate decreased by 0.11% to 82.45%. The production enterprise inventory increased by 4.09 million tons to 52.95 million tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.37 million tons to 5.03 million tons. The downstream average operating rate increased by 0.64% to 45% [25]. - **Strategy View**: The price is expected to remain in low - level fluctuations as the long - term contradiction shifts to the South Korean ethylene clearance policy [26]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price increased by 14 yuan/ton to 6565 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate decreased by 0.76% to 77.27%. The production enterprise, trader, and port inventories all decreased. The downstream average operating rate increased by 0.04% to 51.8% [27][28]. - **Strategy View**: In the context of weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure, the cost - side oversupply pattern suppresses the market [29]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract decreased by 24 yuan, at 6268 yuan. The PX CFR decreased by 3 dollars, at 783 dollars. The PX load in China decreased by 2.5% to 84.9%, and the Asian load decreased by 1.9% to 78%. Some domestic and overseas devices are under maintenance. The PTA load increased by 1.6% to 76%. The inventory at the end of August increased by 1.9 million tons to 391.8 million tons [29]. - **Strategy View**: There is currently a lack of driving factors, and PXN is difficult to expand actively. It is recommended to wait and see [30]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 18 yuan, at 4384 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 25 yuan, at 4315 yuan. The PTA load increased by 1.6% to 76%. The downstream load decreased by 0.1% to 91.4%. The terminal load decreased. The social inventory in early October increased by 5.3 million tons to 216 million tons [30]. - **Strategy View**: The supply is increasing slightly, and the demand shows signs of weakness. It is recommended to wait and see [31]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract remained unchanged, at 4003 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 15 yuan, at 4100 yuan. The supply - side load increased by 2.5% to 77.2%. The downstream load decreased by 0.1% to 91.4%. The terminal load decreased. The port inventory increased by 3.8 million tons to 57.9 million tons [32]. - **Strategy View**: The industry is expected to continue to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter, and it is recommended to short - sell on rallies [33].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, oil prices are not easy to be overly bearish in the short - term. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. - For methanol, the weak - reality pattern of high domestic inventory and unmet peak - season demand remains. The short - term port pressure eases due to delayed import unloading. Future upward price drivers may come from winter gas restrictions. It's recommended to focus on supply - side disturbances and wait and see [4][6]. - For urea, there is a lack of effective positive factors in the domestic market, but the price is at a low level with low valuation. It's expected to fluctuate in a narrow range, and it's advisable to wait and see [8]. - For rubber, the price is short - term stable. It's recommended to set a stop - loss, buy on dips with a short - term approach, and partially build a hedging position by buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong while demand is weak, and the export outlook is poor. The fundamental situation is bad. It's advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium - term [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the port inventory of styrene is decreasing significantly, and the price may stop falling temporarily during the seasonal peak season [17]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to South Korea's ethylene clearance policy [21]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, the cost - side supply surplus pattern suppresses the market. It's advisable to wait and see [23]. - For PX, the current load is high, and the expected inventory accumulation period continues. The valuation is neutral to low, and it's recommended to wait and see [24]. - For PTA, the supply - side maintenance volume is still high, and the de - stocking pattern continues. The demand - side load is expected to remain high, but the terminal shows signs of weakness. It's recommended to wait and see [27]. - For ethylene glycol, the domestic supply is high, and the port inventory is increasing. It's expected to continue to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter. It's recommended to short - sell on rallies [28]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 0.60 yuan/barrel, or 0.14%, to 443.80 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 25.00 yuan/ton, or 0.94%, to 2694.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 1.00 yuan/ton, or 0.03%, to 3159.00 yuan/ton. In the Fujaiera port, gasoline inventory decreased by 0.01 million barrels to 7.48 million barrels, diesel inventory increased by 0.56 million barrels to 3.01 million barrels, fuel oil inventory increased by 0.78 million barrels to 7.03 million barrels, and total refined oil inventory increased by 1.33 million barrels to 17.52 million barrels [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, and wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 20 yuan, in Inner Mongolia by 12.5 yuan, and remained stable in southern Shandong. The 01 - contract on the futures market rose 21 yuan to 2319 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 22 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 7 to - 6 [3][6]. - **Strategy**: The short - term port pressure eases due to delayed import unloading. The overall supply is slightly decreasing, and the demand is still weak. Focus on supply - side disturbances and wait and see [4][6]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong remained stable, and in Henan it increased by 10 yuan. The 01 - contract on the futures market rose 4 yuan to 1604 yuan, with a basis of - 74 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 2 to - 71 [8]. - **Strategy**: The number of short - term faulty devices increased, and the operating rate decreased significantly. The demand is weak, and the price is at a low level. It's expected to fluctuate in a narrow range, and it's advisable to wait and see [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The bulls believe in factors such as limited rubber production in Southeast Asia, seasonal price increase, and improved demand in China. The bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, seasonal low demand, and possible under - performance of supply benefits [8][9]. - **Strategy**: The price is short - term stable. Set a stop - loss, buy on dips with a short - term approach, and partially build a hedging position by buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The 01 - contract on the futures market rose 17 yuan to 4694 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4580 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 114 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread was - 312 yuan. The overall operating rate was 82.6%, with the calcium - carbide method at 82.9% and the ethylene method at 81.9%. The downstream operating rate was 47.8%. Factory inventory was 38.4 million tons, and social inventory was 103.6 million tons [13]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply is strong while demand is weak, and the export outlook is poor. The fundamental situation is bad. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium - term [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of pure benzene in East China was 5590 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 6600 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the active contract was 6600 yuan/ton. The basis was 0 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 139 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 73.61%, and the inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 0.54 million tons to 19.65 million tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 38.81% [16]. - **Strategy**: The port inventory of styrene is decreasing significantly, and the price may stop falling temporarily during the seasonal peak season [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6929 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 6990 yuan/ton. The basis was 61 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 82.45%. The production enterprise inventory increased by 4.09 million tons to 52.95 million tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.37 million tons to 5.03 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 45% [19]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate at a low level. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to South Korea's ethylene clearance policy [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6618 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 6625 yuan/ton. The basis was 7 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 77.27%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 0.27 million tons to 67.87 million tons, the trader inventory decreased by 2.25 million tons to 23.86 million tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.08 million tons to 6.79 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 51.8% [22]. - **Strategy**: Under the background of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, the cost - side supply surplus pattern suppresses the market. It's advisable to wait and see [23]. PX - **Market Information**: The 01 - contract on the futures market rose 64 yuan to 6376 yuan. The PX CFR price decreased by 1 US dollar to 786 US dollars. The basis was 53 yuan. The PX load in China was 87.4%, and in Asia was 79.9%. The PTA load was 76.7%. The inventory at the end of August was 391.8 million tons [23]. - **Strategy**: The current load is high, and the expected inventory accumulation period continues. The valuation is neutral to low, and it's recommended to wait and see [24]. PTA - **Market Information**: The 01 - contract on the futures market rose 34 yuan to 4456 yuan. The East China spot price rose 30 yuan to 4355 yuan. The basis was - 85 yuan. The PTA load was 76.7%, and the downstream load was 91.4%. The terminal draw - texturing load decreased to 80%, and the loom load decreased to 68%. The social inventory on October 10 was 216 million tons [24][26]. - **Strategy**: The supply - side maintenance volume is still high, and the de - stocking pattern continues. The demand - side load is expected to remain high, but the terminal shows signs of weakness. It's recommended to wait and see [27]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The 01 - contract on the futures market rose 32 yuan to 4089 yuan. The East China spot price rose 6 yuan to 4120 yuan. The basis was 68 yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 77.2%, with the syngas - based method at 81.9% and the ethylene - based method at 74.5%. The port inventory increased by 3.4 million tons to 54.1 million tons [27]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply is high, and the port inventory is increasing. It's expected to continue to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter. It's recommended to short - sell on rallies [28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices are not advisable to be overly bearish. A low - buy and high - sell range strategy is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports when oil prices fall for verification [3]. - For methanol, with reduced import disturbances, prices are expected to return to be priced by its own fundamentals. Supply is high due to increased domestic production and rising imports, while demand is weak. Although the current fundamental situation is weak, short - selling is not cost - effective, and it is recommended to wait and see [5]. - For urea, domestic supply has returned with increased production, and demand is weak in the off - season. It is in a state of low valuation and weak drive, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. - For rubber, macro disturbances may temporarily decrease, and rubber prices have stabilized in the short term. It is recommended to set stop - losses, buy on dips for short - term trading, and partially build positions for the hedge of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [13]. - For PVC, the supply is strong while demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. Although the valuation has declined to a low level, it is still difficult to support the weak supply - demand situation, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the cost of pure benzene is high, and the supply of benzene styrene is increasing while demand is declining. Port inventories are being depleted, and benzene styrene prices may stop falling in the short term [18]. - For polyethylene, the cost support has weakened, and although the valuation decline space is limited, high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [21]. - For polypropylene, the cost end is expected to have an oversupply situation, and there is high inventory pressure with weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see [23]. - For PX, the load is high, and the downstream PTA has many unexpected overhauls. The inventory accumulation cycle is expected to continue, and it is recommended to wait and see [26]. - For PTA, the supply overhaul volume is high, and the de - stocking pattern continues, but the processing fee space is limited. The demand is expected to remain high, but the terminal shows signs of weakness. It is recommended to wait and see [27]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, imports are increasing, and inventories are expected to accumulate in the fourth quarter. The valuation is relatively high, and it is recommended to short on rallies [31]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed down 8.10 yuan/barrel, a 1.79% decline, at 443.70 yuan/barrel. Singapore's ESG oil product weekly data showed gasoline inventory decreased by 1.90 million barrels to 11.49 million barrels, diesel inventory increased by 0.26 million barrels to 10.06 million barrels, fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.89 million barrels to 23.67 million barrels, and total refined oil inventory decreased by 2.53 million barrels to 45.22 million barrels [2]. - **Strategy View**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices are not advisable to be overly bearish. A low - buy and high - sell range strategy is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports when oil prices fall for verification [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang increased by 32 yuan, Inner Mongolia decreased by 5 yuan, and Lunan decreased by 10 yuan. The 01 - contract on the futures market increased by 24 yuan, at 2298 yuan/ton, and the basis changed from negative to positive at +19. The 1 - 5 spread changed by +13, at - 13 [4]. - **Strategy View**: With reduced import disturbances, prices are expected to return to be priced by its own fundamentals. Supply is high due to increased domestic production and rising imports, while demand is weak. Although the current fundamental situation is weak, short - selling is not cost - effective, and it is recommended to wait and see [5]. Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in Shandong and Henan remained stable. The 01 - contract on the futures market increased by 3 yuan, at 1600 yuan, and the basis was - 50. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 6, at - 74 [7]. - **Strategy View**: Domestic supply has returned with increased production, and demand is weak in the off - season. It is in a state of low valuation and weak drive, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices were oscillating and showed signs of stabilization. The long - side of natural rubber RU was bullish due to seasonal and demand expectations, while the short - side was bearish due to weak demand. Tire开工率 decreased during the National Day holiday, and the social inventory of natural rubber in China decreased by 0.77 million tons to 108 million tons as of October 12, 2025 [10][11]. - **Strategy View**: Macro disturbances may temporarily decrease, and rubber prices have stabilized in the short term. It is recommended to set stop - losses, buy on dips for short - term trading, and partially build positions for the hedge of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 15 yuan, at 4677 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4580 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 97 (+15) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 314 (+2) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 82.6%, a 1.2% increase, and factory and social inventories increased [13]. - **Strategy View**: The supply is strong while demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. Although the valuation has declined to a low level, it is still difficult to support the weak supply - demand situation, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of East China pure benzene was 5590 yuan/ton, a 35 - yuan/ton decrease. The spot price of styrene was 6550 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan/ton decrease. The closing price of the active styrene contract was 6540 yuan/ton, a 4 - yuan decrease. The basis was 10 yuan/ton, a 46 - yuan weakening. The supply - side upstream operating rate was 73.61%, a 0.41% increase, and Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 0.54 million tons [17]. - **Strategy View**: The cost of pure benzene is high, and the supply of benzene styrene is increasing while demand is declining. Port inventories are being depleted, and benzene styrene prices may stop falling in the short term [18]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6910 yuan/ton, an 8 - yuan decrease. The spot price was 7035 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 125 yuan/ton, a 8 - yuan strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 81.1%, a 0.28% decrease, and inventories of production enterprises and traders increased [20]. - **Strategy View**: The cost support has weakened, and although the valuation decline space is limited, high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6595 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan decrease. The spot price was 6650 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 55 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 77.06%, a 1.46% decrease, and inventories of production enterprises, traders, and ports increased [22]. - **Strategy View**: The cost end is expected to have an oversupply situation, and there is high inventory pressure with weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see [23]. PX, PTA, and MEG PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract decreased by 26 yuan, at 6312 yuan. PX CFR increased by 8 dollars, at 787 dollars. The basis was 128 yuan (+89). The 1 - 3 spread was - 16 yuan (unchanged). The Chinese PX load was 87.4%, a 1% increase, and the Asian load was 79.9%, a 1.9% increase. Some domestic and overseas plants restarted or underwent maintenance [25]. - **Strategy View**: Currently, the PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many unexpected overhauls in the short term. The inventory accumulation cycle is expected to continue. Although the valuation is at a neutral - low level, there is limited downward space. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to changes in the terminal and PTA valuations [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 18 yuan, at 4422 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 55 yuan, at 4325 yuan. The basis was - 85 yuan (- 3). The 1 - 5 spread was - 60 yuan (- 2). The PTA load was 74.4%, a 2.7% decrease. Some plants adjusted their loads. Social inventory increased by 5.3 million tons on October 10 [26]. - **Strategy View**: In the future, the supply overhaul volume remains high, and the de - stocking pattern continues, but the processing fee space is limited. The demand for polyester fiber has low inventory and profit pressure, and the load is expected to remain high, but the terminal shows signs of weakness. It is recommended to wait and see [27]. MEG - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract decreased by 4 yuan, at 4057 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 31 yuan, at 4114 yuan. The basis was 65 yuan (- 3). The 1 - 5 spread was - 86 yuan (+2). The supply - side EG load was 75.1%, a 1.6% increase. Some domestic and overseas plants adjusted their loads. Port inventory increased by 3.4 million tons [27][30]. - **Strategy View**: In terms of industry fundamentals, the operating loads of domestic and overseas plants are high, domestic supply is large, imports are increasing, and ports are turning to inventory accumulation. In the medium term, with concentrated imports and expected high domestic loads, along with the gradual commissioning of new plants, inventory is expected to continue to accumulate in the fourth quarter. The current valuation is still relatively high year - on - year, and there is pressure to continuously compress the valuation. It is recommended to short on rallies [31].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, oil prices are not easy to be overly bearish in the short - term. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently, it is recommended to wait and see, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports when oil prices fall for verification [3]. - **Methanol**: Affected by rumors of Iranian plant shutdowns and some warehouses not accepting Iranian ships' cargo, the 1 - 5 spread has strengthened from a low level, and the futures price has stabilized. However, the actual fundamentals are weak, with high domestic supply, weak demand, and high inventory. The cost - performance of short - selling is not high, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. - **Urea**: After the holiday, the futures price has dropped significantly, and the spot price has dropped less. The supply pressure has increased, and the demand is weak. It is in a situation of low valuation and weak drive, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **Rubber**: Affected by macro factors, the rubber price has broken down in the short - term. Referring to the April 2025 trend, there may be a 1 - 3 - day decline cycle. It is recommended to wait and see or operate short - term, and partially re - build the hedge position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2511 [17]. - **PVC**: The enterprise's comprehensive profit has declined to a low level, but the supply is high, the demand is weak, and the export expectation is poor. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [21]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The spot and futures prices of styrene have declined, but the basis has strengthened. The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory is decreasing, and the price may stop falling [24]. - **Polyethylene**: The futures price has declined. The cost - end support has weakened, but the inventory is high. The demand is expected to pick up seasonally, and the price may remain in a low - level shock [27]. - **Polypropylene**: The futures price has declined. The supply pressure is high, the demand has a seasonal rebound, and the inventory pressure is high. The high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction [30]. - **PX**: The PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many unexpected short - term maintenance. The PX inventory accumulation cycle is expected to continue, and it is recommended to wait and see [33]. - **PTA**: The supply side has a high maintenance volume, and the de - stocking pattern continues, but the processing fee space is limited. The demand side has a high load, but the terminal shows signs of weakness. It is recommended to wait and see [33]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The domestic and overseas device loads are high, the supply is high, the import volume is increasing, and the port is starting to accumulate inventory. It is recommended to short on rallies [36]. 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed down 12.50 yuan/barrel, a 2.68% decline, at 453.70 yuan/barrel. Chinese crude oil weekly data showed a decrease in arrival inventory by 0.29 million barrels to 211.81 million barrels, a 0.14% decline; gasoline commercial inventory increased by 0.63 million barrels to 91.39 million barrels, a 0.69% increase; diesel commercial inventory increased by 0.72 million barrels to 103.95 million barrels, a 0.70% increase; total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 1.35 million barrels to 195.34 million barrels, a 0.70% increase [2]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see, waiting for OPEC's reaction to falling oil prices [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang increased by 55 yuan, in Inner Mongolia by 2.5 yuan, and in southern Shandong by 20 yuan. The 01 - contract price increased by 35 yuan to 2342 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 42. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 32 to - 12 [5]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see due to weak fundamentals but limited downside space [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: The Shandong spot price decreased by 10 yuan, and the Henan spot price decreased by 10 yuan. The 01 - contract price increased by 13 yuan to 1610 yuan, and the basis was - 100. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 1 to - 68 [8]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see because of low valuation and weak drive [9]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Affected by the US tariff statement, global risk asset prices dropped. The tire开工率 decreased during the National Day holiday. As of October 9, 2025, the all - steel tire开工率 in Shandong was 46.38%, 6.08 percentage points lower than last week and 3.30 percentage points lower than the same period last year; the semi - steel tire开工率 was 50.87%, 9.10 percentage points lower than last week and 23.72 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The export of semi - steel tires slowed down. As of September 21, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.112 million tons, a 0.1 - million - ton decrease, a 1% decline [13][15]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see or short - term operation, and partially re - build the hedge position [17]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 14 yuan to 4721 yuan. The Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4610 yuan/ton, a 30 - yuan decrease. The basis was - 111 yuan/ton, a 16 - yuan decrease. The 1 - 5 spread was - 318 yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai increased by 50 yuan to 2450 yuan/ton. The overall开工率 was 82.6%, a 1.2% increase. Factory inventory was 38.4 million tons, an 8.4 - million - ton increase, and social inventory was 103.6 million tons, a 5.5 - million - ton increase [19]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies due to strong supply and weak demand [21]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of East China pure benzene was 5660 yuan/ton, unchanged. The styrene spot price decreased by 50 yuan to 6700 yuan/ton, and the active - contract closing price decreased by 53 yuan to 6690 yuan/ton. The basis was 10 yuan/ton, a 3 - yuan increase. The BZN spread was 129.25 yuan/ton, a 3.5 - yuan increase. The upstream开工率 was 73.61%, a 0.41% increase. The Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 0.54 million tons to 19.65 million tons. The demand - side three - S weighted开工率 was 38.54%, a 0.87% decrease [23]. - **Strategy**: The price may stop falling due to the decreasing port inventory and the upward - repair potential of the BZN spread [24]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main - contract closing price decreased by 54 yuan to 6983 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 50 yuan to 7040 yuan/ton. The basis was 57 yuan/ton, a 4 - yuan increase. The upstream开工率 was 81.1%, a 0.28% decrease. The production enterprise inventory increased by 10.59 million tons to 48.86 million tons, and the trader inventory increased by 0.73 million tons to 5.40 million tons. The downstream average开工率 was 44.36%, a 0.23% increase [26]. - **Strategy**: The price may remain in a low - level shock due to weak cost - end support and expected seasonal demand recovery [27]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main - contract closing price decreased by 29 yuan to 6693 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 20 yuan to 6730 yuan/ton. The basis was 37 yuan/ton, a 9 - yuan increase. The upstream开工率 was 77.06%, a 1.46% decrease. The production enterprise inventory increased by 16.11 million tons to 68.14 million tons, the trader inventory increased by 6.11 million tons to 26.11 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 0.22 million tons to 6.87 million tons. The downstream average开工率 was 51.76%, a 0.05% increase [29]. - **Strategy**: High supply pressure, seasonal demand rebound, and high inventory, with high warehouse receipts suppressing the market [30]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX11 contract decreased by 46 yuan to 6458 yuan. The PX CFR decreased by 7 dollars to 791 dollars. The basis was 16 yuan, a 15 - yuan decrease. The 11 - 1 spread was 28 yuan, a 4 - yuan increase. The Chinese PX load was 87.4%, a 1% increase, and the Asian load was 79.9%, a 1.9% increase. Some domestic and overseas plants restarted, and one Japanese plant was under maintenance. The PTA load was 74.4%, a 2.7% decrease. In early October, South Korea's PX exports to China were 12.7 million tons, a 2.1 - million - ton increase year - on - year. The inventory at the end of August was 3.918 million tons, a 0.019 - million - ton increase month - on - month [32]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see due to high load, expected inventory accumulation, and neutral - low valuation [33]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 24 yuan to 4510 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 50 yuan to 4440 yuan. The basis was - 71 yuan, a 6 - yuan decrease. The 1 - 5 spread was - 54 yuan, a 2 - yuan decrease. The PTA load was 74.4%, a 2.7% decrease. Some plants adjusted their loads. The downstream load was 91.5%, unchanged. The terminal draw - texturing and weaving loads were unchanged. The social inventory on October 10 was 2.16 million tons, a 0.053 - million - ton increase [33]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see because of high supply - side maintenance, limited processing fee space, and weak terminal signs [33]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract increased by 11 yuan to 4111 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 1 yuan to 4207 yuan. The basis was 69 yuan, a 1 - yuan increase. The 1 - 5 spread was - 74 yuan, an 11 - yuan increase. The supply - side load was 75.1%, a 1.6% increase. Some domestic and overseas plants had changes in operation. The downstream load was 91.5%, unchanged. The import arrival forecast was 8 million tons, and the East China departure was 0.9 million tons per day from October 11 - 12. The port inventory increased by 3.4 million tons to 54.1 million tons [35]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies due to high supply, increasing imports, and expected inventory accumulation [36].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The research report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices are not easy to be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports when oil prices fall for verification [3]. - For methanol, with the return of concentrated domestic installations, high production profits, and increased imports, supply pressure is high. Demand is weak, and inventory pressure is large. However, short - selling is not cost - effective, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. - For urea, after the holiday, the futures price dropped significantly, and the spot price dropped less. Supply pressure increased, demand was weak, and inventory rose. It is recommended to wait and see or look for long - position opportunities when there are clear positive signals [6]. - For rubber, affected by the macro - environment, the rubber price broke down in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or operate short - term, and partially re - establish a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2511 [13]. - For PVC, the enterprise's comprehensive profit has declined to a low level, supply is strong, demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. It is recommended to consider short - selling opportunities in the medium term [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, although the spot and futures prices are falling, the BZN spread has room for upward repair. With the approaching of the seasonal peak season, the port inventory may decline, and the price may stop falling [19]. - For polyethylene, cost support exists, and the downward space of PE valuation is limited. With the approaching of the seasonal peak season, the price may fluctuate upward [22]. - For polypropylene, supply pressure remains, demand is seasonally rebounding from a low level, and inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction [25]. - For PX, the load remains high, downstream PTA has many unexpected short - term overhauls, and the expected PX inventory accumulation cycle will continue. It is recommended to wait and see [28]. - For PTA, the supply - side overhaul volume is high, the de - stocking pattern continues, but the processing fee space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [29]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, imports are increasing, and the port is starting to accumulate inventory. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [31]. 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures fell 6.80 yuan/barrel, or 1.45%, to 461.90 yuan/barrel. European ARA weekly data showed that gasoline inventory decreased by 0.27 million barrels, diesel inventory increased by 0.31 million barrels, fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.12 million barrels, naphtha inventory increased by 0.78 million barrels, and aviation kerosene inventory decreased by 0.39 million barrels. The total refined oil inventory increased by 0.32 million barrels [2]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see, and verify OPEC's export - price - support intention when oil prices fall [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang fell 3 yuan, in Inner Mongolia fell 5 yuan, and remained stable in southern Shandong. The 01 - contract on the futures market rose 17 yuan to 2307 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 97. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 12 to - 44 [3]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see as the current short - selling cost - effectiveness is low [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong fell 20 yuan, and in Henan fell 30 yuan. The 01 - contract on the futures market fell 12 yuan to 1597 yuan, and the basis was - 57. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 1 to - 69 [6]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see or look for long - position opportunities when there are clear positive signals [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Affected by the US tariff statement, global risk asset prices dropped. Forecasted rainfall in Thailand and other places will increase in the next 7 - 14 days. Tire开工率 decreased during the National Day holiday. As of October 9, 2025, the all - steel tire开工率 in Shandong was 46.38%, and the semi - steel tire开工率 was 50.87%. The export of semi - steel tires slowed down. As of September 21, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 111.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons [11]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see or operate short - term, and partially re - establish a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2511 [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract fell 34 yuan to 4735 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4640 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 95. The 1 - 5 spread was - 318. The cost side remained stable, the overall开工率 was 82.6%, and the downstream开工率 was 47.8%. Factory inventory was 38.4 million tons, and social inventory was 103.6 million tons [13]. - **Strategy**: Consider short - selling opportunities in the medium term due to strong supply, weak demand, and poor export expectations [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of East China pure benzene remained unchanged at 5770 yuan/ton. The styrene spot price fell 50 yuan/ton to 6750 yuan/ton, and the active - contract closing price fell 75 yuan/ton to 6743 yuan/ton. The basis was 7 yuan/ton, and the BZN spread was 125.75 yuan/ton. The upstream开工率 was 73.61%, and the Jiangsu port inventory increased by 0.44 million tons to 20.19 million tons. The demand - side three - S weighted开工率 was 38.54% [18]. - **Strategy**: The styrene price may stop falling as the BZN spread has room for upward repair and the seasonal peak season is approaching [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main - contract closing price fell 40 yuan/ton to 7037 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 15 yuan/ton to 7100 yuan/ton. The basis was 63 yuan/ton. The upstream开工率 was 83.6%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 7.56 million tons to 38.27 million tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.43 million tons to 4.67 million tons. The downstream average开工率 was 45% [21]. - **Strategy**: The price may fluctuate upward as cost support exists and the seasonal peak season is approaching [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main - contract closing price fell 23 yuan/ton to 6722 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged at 6780 yuan/ton. The basis was 58 yuan/ton. The upstream开工率 was 77.29%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 3.03 million tons to 52.03 million tons, the trader inventory decreased by 0.11 million tons to 18.72 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 0.47 million tons to 6.65 million tons. The downstream average开工率 was 52% [24]. - **Strategy**: There is no prominent short - term contradiction due to high supply pressure, seasonal demand rebound, and high inventory pressure [25]. PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol - **PX** - **Market Information**: The PX11 contract fell 82 yuan to 6504 yuan. The PX CFR fell 11 dollars to 798 dollars. The PX load in China was 87.4%, and in Asia was 79.9%. Some domestic and overseas installations restarted, and one Japanese installation was under maintenance. The PTA load was 74.4%. In September, South Korea's PX exports to China were 37.9 million tons [27]. - **Strategy**: The PX inventory accumulation cycle may continue, and it is recommended to wait and see [28]. - **PTA** - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract fell 50 yuan to 4534 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 10 yuan to 4490 yuan. The PTA load was 74.4%. The downstream load was 91.5%. The social inventory (excluding credit warrants) on September 26 was 210.7 million tons [28]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see as the supply - side overhaul volume is high and the processing fee space is limited [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract fell 58 yuan to 4100 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 18 yuan to 4206 yuan. The supply - side load was 75.1%. The downstream load was 91.5%. The port inventory increased by 9.8 million tons to 50.7 million tons [30]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell on rallies due to high supply, increasing imports, and expected inventory accumulation [31].