Group 1 - The report highlights the significant changes in the investment atmosphere and asset trends due to the impending end of the U.S. government shutdown, emphasizing the importance of understanding macroeconomic dynamics for effective asset allocation strategies [1] - Recent data from ADP indicates that the private sector has been cutting over 10,000 jobs weekly for four consecutive weeks, suggesting a cooling labor market, which contrasts sharply with previous optimistic expectations regarding employment recovery [1] - The weakening of the U.S. dollar, influenced by soft ADP data, has led to increased volatility in non-dollar currencies and commodity markets, while also causing a pullback in safe-haven assets like gold after a period of high fluctuations [1] Group 2 - Investors are adjusting their strategies in response to rising expectations of interest rate cuts, which have led to a decline in bond market yields, enhancing the appeal of conservative investment tools [2] - Gold remains a crucial asset for inflation protection and risk diversification despite short-term profit-taking pressures, indicating its long-term value [2] - The report suggests considering the Schroders Global Fund series, specifically the Global Equity and Bond Growth Income Fund, which aims to provide a balanced and stable investment option by actively seeking opportunities across global markets [2]

Core Viewpoint - HSBC Holdings (00005) is currently facing significant technical resistance at the 113 HKD level, with indicators suggesting potential short-term adjustment pressure, while the medium to long-term trend remains robust, presenting unique trading opportunities for derivative product investors [1][3]. Technical Analysis - HSBC is in a clear upward channel, with immediate support at 109 HKD and strong support at 105.6 HKD. Resistance levels are at 118 HKD and 122.4 HKD. The stock price is above MA10 (110.99 HKD), MA30 (106.96 HKD), and MA60 (105.38 HKD), indicating a bullish trend [1][3]. - The RSI has reached an overbought level of 70, with technical indicators suggesting a "strong sell" signal, indicating a potential short-term technical correction [1][3]. Support and Resistance Levels - The 109 HKD level is a crucial defensive barrier; if breached, the stock may drop to the stronger support at 105.6 HKD. On the upside, 118 HKD is the first significant resistance, followed by 122.4 HKD as the next target [3]. - The probability of an upward movement is estimated at 52%, with a 5-day volatility of only 4.6%, indicating relatively mild price fluctuations, although the overbought condition warrants caution [3]. Derivative Products Performance - Recent performance in the structured products market shows strong tracking performance of derivatives amid stock volatility. On November 11, when the stock rose by 1.69%, UBS call warrant 18901 gained 22%, and JPMorgan bull certificate 57888 increased by 13%, demonstrating the potential for substantial returns when market timing is correctly managed [3]. Investment Opportunities - For bullish investors, UBS call warrant 21320 (exercise price 130.98 HKD) offers a leverage of 13.5 times, with the lowest premium and implied volatility among similar products. UBS call warrant 21409 is also a viable option with a leverage of 12.4 times and relatively low premium [6]. - For bearish investors, UBS put warrant 22223 (exercise price 103.23 HKD) provides a leverage of 7.2 times, while JPMorgan put warrant 22013 (exercise price 103.33 HKD) offers a leverage of 7 times with a low premium [6]. Bull and Bear Certificates - Bullish investors can consider JPMorgan bull certificate 57888 (redemption price 100 HKD) with the highest actual leverage of 9 times, and UBS bull certificate 58939 (redemption price 100 HKD) with a leverage of 9.9 times and the lowest premium [8]. - Bearish investors may look at UBS bear certificate 56441 (redemption price 120 HKD) with a leverage of 17 times and the lowest premium, or JPMorgan bear certificate 61553 (redemption price 120 HKD) with a leverage of 15.8 times, offering competitive leverage and premium [8].

Group 1: Market Performance - Tencent reported a quarterly profit of 70.6 billion HKD, an increase of 18% compared to the previous year, exceeding expectations[2] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 27,073 points, up 150 points or 0.56% for the day, with a year-to-date increase of 34.96%[3] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose to 4,029.50 points, reflecting a daily change of 0.73% and a year-to-date increase of 20.22%[3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The foreign exchange fund earned 274 billion HKD in the first three quarters, marking a record high for the same period[2] - The foreign exchange fund's investment income for the last quarter was 60 billion HKD, a year-on-year decrease of 48%[2] - China's GDP grew by 4.8% year-on-year in Q3, surpassing market expectations of 4.7%[14] Group 3: Stock Recommendations - Wei Long Snacks (9985.HK) has a suggested buy price of 11.50 HKD, with a target price of 13.00 HKD, currently trading at 12.01 HKD[14] - Tencent Holdings (700.HK) has a target price of 550 HKD, with a current price of 554 HKD, reflecting a 6.18% increase from the suggested buy price[11] - BYD Company (1211.HK) has a suggested buy price of 125.22 HKD, with a target price of 141.89 HKD, currently trading at 135.6 HKD[11]

今日（12日）恆指靠住金融、地產板塊托底，低開0.2%後快速回穩，當中滙豐控股（00005）表現最搶鏡。 記得11月6日我哋【港股播報】就點評過滙豐，當日收報110元，接近110.4元高位，仲突破咗保利加通道頂部，當時技術信號以賣出為主，提醒大家留意回 調風險。而家睇返，股價不僅冇回調，仲升上113.6元，完全符合當時「沿通道頂部運行」嘅預判。 最新資料顯示，支撐位已經上移，近線最穩系108.2元，呢個位置系MA10同前期平臺嘅雙重支撐，跌穿先至要睇104.3元嘅強支撐；阻力就好清晰，先睇 114.6元，過咗呢關就有機會挑戰120.5元高位，畢竟高盛都睇到120，資金自然會睇住呢兩個點位做部署。 技術面來講，總信號依舊系賣出但強度僅9，RSI 69點接近超買區，不過牛熊力量同MACD都有買入信號，簡單講就系多空喺度拗手瓜，上升概率53%，雖 然唔算一面倒，但勝在有息差利好托底。 想瞭解更多港股窩輪及牛熊證深度分析，請立即關注「港股窩輪 Jenny」，掌握市場先機！ | 相關資產 | 名稱 | 産品 | 植桿 | 行作 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 匯豐(00005) ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of China Construction Bank (CCB) shares has been stable, with a gradual increase in stock price driven by market interest, raising questions about the sustainability of this upward trend [1][8]. Technical Analysis - CCB's stock price reached a high of 8.45 HKD, breaking through the upper Bollinger Band, with a total trading volume of 1.42 billion HKD over the past five trading days, indicating typical blue-chip trading characteristics [1]. - Key support levels are identified at 8.03 HKD and 7.62 HKD, while resistance levels are at 8.4 HKD and 8.76 HKD. The stock has surpassed all major moving averages, with MA10 at 8.04 HKD, MA30 at 7.71 HKD, and MA60 at 7.69 HKD, indicating a strong bullish structure [1]. - The RSI indicator has reached 77, suggesting an overbought condition, raising the possibility of a short-term technical adjustment [1]. Derivative Products Performance - CCB-related derivatives, such as warrants and bull/bear certificates, have shown significant performance. For instance, UBS call warrant (20184) recorded a 40% increase within two days when the underlying stock rose by 2.46% [1]. - Bull certificates from Societe Generale (62134) and JPMorgan (60435) increased by 12% and 20%, respectively, providing stable returns for investors [1]. Investment Opportunities - For investors optimistic about CCB, Citigroup's call warrant (18036) offers a leverage of 20.7 times with an exercise price set at 9.99 HKD, suitable for those seeking high leverage [3]. - The Bank of China call warrant (17531) provides a leverage of 13.9 times with an exercise price of 9.98 HKD, maintaining a relatively stable implied volatility [3]. Cautious Investment Options - For cautious investors, UBS put warrant (17835) and Bank of China put warrant (17641) offer a leverage of 6.2 times with an exercise price of 7.1 HKD, ideal for those anticipating a price correction [6]. - JPMorgan's bear certificate (68123) provides the highest leverage among similar products at 13.4 times, with a recovery price set at 8.7 HKD and the lowest premium [6]. Market Trends - There has been a noticeable shift in market sentiment towards traditional financial stocks, including CCB, which has performed well since October, rising from around 7 HKD to above 8 HKD [8]. - This trend reflects a potential reallocation of funds from high-growth sectors to more conservative, income-generating stocks as investors anticipate continued interest rate cuts in the U.S. [8].

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index faces resistance at 27,381 points due to the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on interest rate cuts, with expectations for fewer cuts in 2026 than previously anticipated [2] - The recent meeting between the US and Chinese leaders has eased tensions temporarily, with the US suspending a 10% tariff on fentanyl for one year [2] - China's third-quarter economic performance has further cooled, aligning with the "14th Five-Year Plan" which emphasizes expanding domestic demand and promoting technological self-reliance [2] Sector Focus - The total online retail sales during the "Double 11" shopping festival in 2025 are projected to reach approximately 1.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.2% [8] - The banking sector is reportedly offering loans to businesses and individuals to meet lending targets, indicating a slowdown in effective loan demand [8] - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from strong investment returns in the third quarter due to robust performance in the A-share market [7] Company News - Tencent Music's adjusted profit for the third quarter increased by 32%, surpassing expectations, with total revenue reaching 8.463 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 20.64% [10] - Semiconductor manufacturer SMIC is reportedly prioritizing chip distribution to meet the demands of major companies like Huawei amid ongoing supply shortages [10] - Foxconn's third-quarter net profit rose by 17% to 57.673 billion NTD, driven by increased shipments of Apple iPhones and AI servers [9] Economic Indicators - The US Federal Reserve announced a 0.25% interest rate cut, bringing the target range to 3.75% to 4.00%, with further cuts remaining uncertain due to internal disagreements [4] - The global dividend payout in the third quarter reached a record high of 94 billion USD in Hong Kong, with a core growth rate of 15.4% [8] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that global oil consumption may continue to grow until 2050, with a projected increase of 13% [9]

Market Overview - US stock markets experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones down 1.21% to 46,987.10, the S&P 500 down 1.63% to 6,728.80, and the Nasdaq down 3.04% to 23,004.54[5][6] - The Hang Seng Index rose 1.29% to 26,241.83, while the National Enterprises Index increased by 1.08% to 9,267.56[5][3] Commodity and Currency Markets - New York crude oil fell 2.02% to $59.75 per barrel, while New York gold rose 0.33% to $4,009.80 per ounce[5][3] - The US Dollar Index decreased by 0.20% to 99.60, with the Euro rising 0.25% to 1.1566 and the Australian Dollar falling 0.79% to 0.6493[3][31] Economic Indicators - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index dropped to 50.3, the lowest since June 2022, with inflation expectations slightly rising to 4.7%[8][24] - US companies announced 153,000 layoffs in October, a significant increase of over 1.8 times month-on-month, marking the largest October layoffs since 2003[8][24] Bond Market Insights - The US government shutdown continues, impacting market stability; the 2-year Treasury yield is at 3.591%, while the 10-year yield is at 4.116%[26] - Hong Kong plans to issue tokenized bonds, with previous issuances totaling HKD 6.8 billion since 2023, aiming to enhance its status as a financial hub[26] Investment Strategies - AI-themed funds are highlighted as a key strategy for capturing future trends, emphasizing the importance of technology innovation and ethical standards[21] - Investors are advised to remain cautious and await clearer market directions before making significant investment decisions[18]

Economic Indicators - China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% in October, marking a shift from two consecutive months of deflation[2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a narrowing decline, indicating potential stabilization in manufacturing prices[2] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,241.83 points, down 0.92% for the day and up 30.82% year-to-date[5] - The Technology Index fell by 1.80%, while the Financial Index decreased by 0.22%[5] Stock Highlights - HKTVmall reported a total merchandise transaction value of HKD 688 million in October, a month-on-month increase of 6.01% but a year-on-year decrease of 4.31%[7] - Major blue-chip stocks showed weakness, with HSBC down 0.6% and Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing down 1%[7] Investment Recommendations - Tencent Holdings (700.HK) has a target price of HKD 550, with a current price of HKD 554, reflecting a 6.18% increase from the recommendation date[10] - The stock of Minth Group (425.HK) is recommended with a target price of HKD 41, currently priced at HKD 38.14, showing a year-to-date increase of 152.25%[12] Commodity Prices - New York crude oil prices rose by 0.54% to USD 59.75 per barrel, while Brent crude increased by 0.39% to USD 63.63[5] - Gold prices increased by 0.47%, reaching USD 4,009.80 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of 52.28%[5]

Market Overview - The report highlights a significant increase in layoffs in the US, with approximately 153,000 job cuts announced in October, marking a year-on-year surge of 175.3% [9][12] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a drop of 398 points, while the Nasdaq fell by 445 points, indicating a broader market correction [9][12] - Despite cautious consumer sentiment, holiday sales in the US are projected to exceed $1 trillion, setting a new record [12] Investment Strategy - The report suggests maintaining a long-term investment strategy despite short-term market corrections, emphasizing the potential of Asian and emerging markets as mid to long-term investment highlights [10] - Structural products are recommended to mitigate downside risks amid short-term uncertainties and potential market pullbacks [10] Key Company Analysis - Alibaba's latest quarterly report shows revenue growth year-on-year, driven by strong performance in cloud services and AI applications, although slightly below expectations [23] - Shanghai Electric reported a revenue of 82.276 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.4% [23] - New China Life Insurance achieved a net profit of 32.9 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 59%, benefiting from a recovering equity market [23] Economic Data - China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $3.33 trillion as of October, with exports growing at an annual rate of 2.8% [21] - The US unemployment rate for October was reported at 4.4%, with a decrease of 20,000 in non-farm payrolls [21] - Taiwan's exports increased by 31.6% year-on-year in October, indicating strong trade performance [21]

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the Hong Kong financial sector has been stable, with China Construction Bank (CCB) as a key focus due to its leading position among domestic banks. The stock price is consolidating around HKD 8.05, with market attention on potential short-term breakout directions [1][7]. Technical Analysis - CCB's technical indicators show a mixed pattern, with the stock price remaining above several moving averages. The MA10 is at 7.9, MA30 at 7.6, and MA60 at 7.67, indicating a bullish trend in the medium to long term. The RSI is at 68, nearing the overbought zone but not at extreme levels. Various oscillators like MACD and Bollinger Bands maintain buy signals, while the Williams indicator suggests overbought conditions and issues a sell signal, indicating divergence in technical indicators [1][4]. Key Support and Resistance Levels - Immediate support is at HKD 7.78, with a potential drop to HKD 7.51 if this level is breached. The key resistance level to watch is HKD 8.24; a successful breakout could lead to a target of HKD 8.44. The stock has shown a volatility of 5.1% over five days, providing a favorable environment for conservative investors [2]. Derivative Product Performance - Recent market data indicates strong performance of CCB-related derivative products. For instance, JPMorgan's call option (17265) saw a remarkable increase of 131% within two days, while Societe Generale's bull certificate (62134) rose by 35%, and UBS's bull certificate (62178) increased by 43%. These products demonstrated the leverage effect, as the underlying stock rose by 4.55% during the same period [4]. Market Sentiment and Fund Flows - There has been a noticeable shift in market sentiment, with funds moving from high-growth sectors to traditional financial stocks like CCB. Since October, CCB's stock price has risen from around HKD 7 to above HKD 8, reflecting a broader trend of capital reallocating towards safer, income-generating stocks amid expectations of continued interest rate cuts in the U.S. [7][8]. Investment Tools and Strategies - Investors looking to capitalize on CCB's potential can consider high-leverage options such as the call option (20261) with a strike price of HKD 9.08, expiring in March next year, which offers a leverage of approximately 12 times. Other options include the Bank of China call option (19572) with a strike price of HKD 8.07, providing about 5.5 times leverage, and UBS's call option (20935) with similar characteristics [8][9]. Bull and Bear Certificates - For bullish strategies, Societe Generale's bull certificate (62134) has a buyback price of HKD 7, offering an actual leverage of about 9.7 times. UBS's bull certificate (62178) also has a buyback price of HKD 7, with a leverage of approximately 8.8 times. For bearish strategies, JPMorgan's bear certificate (68463) has a buyback price of HKD 8.3, with a high leverage of 17.1 times, suitable for investors with higher risk tolerance [11].