Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Group 2: Core Views of Reports Steel Industry - The steel industry's production has a seasonal rebound, but last week's rebound was slow. Iron - water production increased by 30,000 tons, the output of five major steel products remained stable, and the output of surface - free steel products did not increase significantly. The increase in production might have flowed more to steel billets. Apparent demand rebounded more than production, and inventory continued to decline. Currently, the demand for hot - rolled coils is slightly better than that for rebar, domestic demand expectations are still weak, and export orders are stable. Due to steel mills' production cuts in the first quarter, although demand is weak, inventory reduction is normal, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The upward drive mainly comes from the raw material end. Recently, crude oil has strengthened again, and the expected production cut by BHP has made raw materials stronger, supporting steel prices [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The main iron ore contract oscillated at a high level. Geopolitical games, undecided BHP negotiations, and hot - metal复产 are the main trading focuses. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased significantly compared to the previous period, mainly due to the impact of a super typhoon on the shipments of some ports in Australia. On the demand side, hot - metal output increased slightly but was less than expected, some steel mills carried out rational maintenance, and the profitability rate of steel mills improved. Terminal demand recovery is slow, domestic demand is weak, and steel exports are uncertain. In terms of inventory, both steel mill and port inventories decreased slightly. It is expected that port inventories will either decrease slightly or remain unchanged under the background of a decline in the arrival volume and high - level port clearance [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Coke futures oscillated. Spot - end mainstream coke enterprises initiated the first price increase after the Chinese New Year on March 23, which is expected to be implemented soon. The increase in coking coal price provides cost support for coke, and port prices fluctuate with futures. On the supply side, coke price adjustment lags behind coking coal, and the sharp increase in chemical product prices makes up for coke losses, leading to an increase in coking plant operations. On the demand side, steel mills are resuming production rapidly, hot - metal output is increasing, steel prices are rebounding at a low level, and restocking demand will pick up in the near future. In terms of inventory, coking plants are reducing inventory, while steel mills and ports are increasing inventory, and the overall inventory is slightly increasing at a medium level, with short - term supply - demand basically balanced. - Coking coal futures oscillated downward. In the spot market, the auction of Shanxi coking coal has cooled down, and Mongolian coal prices fluctuate with futures. After the price increase, restocking demand has weakened. On the supply side, coal mines are resuming production, and daily coal production is gradually increasing; in terms of imported coal, port inventory accumulation has slowed down, and after the resumption of customs clearance, it has remained at a relatively high level, with a slight decline in customs clearance last week. On the demand side, steel mills are actively resuming production, hot - metal output is increasing, coking production is increasing synchronously, and the first - round price increase expectation for coke is expected to be implemented soon. In terms of inventory, coal washing plants, coke enterprises, steel mills, ports, and ports are all increasing inventory, while coal mines are reducing inventory, and the overall inventory is showing downstream active restocking changes [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - Ferrosilicon futures oscillated moderately. The Shaanxi Shenmu ferrosilicon plant is overhauling a 40,500 kva ferrosilicon furnace, and the overhaul duration is uncertain. Last week, ferrosilicon production decreased slightly, and the operating rate also declined. Only Inner Mongolia and Ningxia have good profits, while Qinghai and Gansu still have serious losses. In terms of demand, hot - metal output increased slightly but was less than expected. Terminal demand recovery is slow, domestic demand is weak, and steel exports are uncertain. Ferrosilicon export orders are poor, and inquiries have weakened. The cost of ferrosilicon is supported to some extent. In the short term, affected by international geopolitical conflicts, market sentiment is changeable, ferrosilicon supply and demand both increase, and the cost is affected by coal, but the supply growth rate is slow, and the supply is still in a tight balance. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to operate within the range of 5,800 - 6,200. - Ferromanganese futures strengthened slightly, mainly boosted by production - cut news. In March, more manufacturers jointly cut production, and alloy plants in Inner Mongolia and other places began to implement production cuts. In the spot market, the steelmaking procurement price of East China steel plants is 6,670 yuan/ton. After the production cuts are implemented, the spot price increases, and traders are eager to follow the price increase. Last week, ferromanganese supply continued to decline, and the operating rate has declined for several consecutive weeks, with a joint production - cut expectation in April. The production pressure in the South is still high, and the loss has decreased. Only Inner Mongolia in the North is on the verge of profit and loss, but the manganese ore cost of manufacturers is mostly from previously low - priced ores, so the actual profit is better. In terms of demand, hot - metal output increased slightly but was less than expected. Terminal demand recovery is slow, domestic demand is weak, and steel exports are uncertain. Recently, the port inventory of manganese ore has increased, but due to the increase in overseas energy costs, the price of manganese ore is expected to remain high. In the short term, affected by international geopolitical conflicts, market sentiment is changeable, and there is a production - cut expectation for ferromanganese. It is expected that the price will oscillate strongly, and the range is 5,700 - 6,800 [6]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East, North, and South China increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. Rebar futures prices for 05, 10, and 01 contracts increased. Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East and North China increased by 0 - 10 yuan/ton, and in South China by 20 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil futures prices for 05, 10, and 01 contracts also increased [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet price increased by 20 yuan/ton, and slab price remained unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar and converter rebar decreased by 15 yuan/ton. The profits of East and North China hot - rolled coils and rebar decreased, while the profit of South China rebar decreased by 12 yuan/ton [1]. Production - Daily average hot - metal output increased by 3.1 tons to 231.1 tons, a 1.4% increase. The output of five major steel products decreased slightly by 0.2 tons to 839.6 tons, a 0.0% change. Rebar output decreased by 5.5 tons to 197.9 tons, a 2.7% decrease, with electric - furnace output decreasing by 1.5 tons and converter output decreasing by 4.0 tons. Hot - rolled coil output increased by 5.4 tons to 305.6 tons, a 1.8% increase [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 48.4 tons to 1,897.8 tons, a 2.5% decrease. Rebar inventory decreased by 27.5 tons to 861.9 tons, a 3.1% decrease. Hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 8.0 tons to 453.3 tons, a 1.7% decrease [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building material trading volume increased by 1.0 tons to 10.4 tons, a 10.4% increase. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 19.5 tons to 888.0 tons, a 2.2% increase. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 17.3 tons to 225.4 tons, an 8.3% increase. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 3.1 tons to 313.6 tons, a 1.0% increase [1]. Iron Ore Industry Futures - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased slightly by 0.1%. The 05 - contract basis of various powders also increased slightly. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 2.0 yuan/ton to 22.0 yuan/ton, a - 8.3% change, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 1.0 yuan/ton to 19.5 yuan/ton, a 5.4% increase [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - Spot prices of various iron ores in Rizhao Port increased slightly by about 0.1%. The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap price remained unchanged [3]. Supply - The global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 671.9 tons to 2,472.4 tons, a 21.4% decrease. The national monthly import volume decreased by 2,200.9 tons to 9,763.8 tons, an 18.4% decrease. The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 154.7 tons to 2,426.3 tons, a 6.8% increase, and the 45 - port daily average clearance volume decreased by 7.8 tons to 313.2 tons, a 2.4% decrease [3]. Demand - The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 2.9 tons to 231.1 tons, a 1.3% increase [3]. Inventory - The inventory of 247 steel mills' imported iron ore decreased by 55.5 tons to 8,978.6 tons, a 0.6% decrease [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi first - class wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - class wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. Coke futures prices for 05 and 09 contracts increased slightly by 0.1%. The 05 and 09 basis decreased [5]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal remained unchanged, while the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal decreased by 19 yuan/ton, a 1.4% decrease. Coking coal futures prices for 05 and 09 contracts decreased slightly. The 05 and 09 basis decreased [5]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.5 tons to 64.8 tons, a 0.8% increase, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged. The raw coal output of sample coal mines decreased by 5.6 tons to 875.3 tons, a 0.6% decrease, and the clean coal output decreased by 2.7 tons to 445.9 tons, a 0.6% decrease [5]. Demand - The hot - metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 2.9 tons to 231.1 tons, a 1.3% increase [5]. Inventory - Coke total inventory increased by 16.3 tons to 997.8 tons, a 1.7% increase. The inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 4.2 tons to 90.1 tons, a 4.4% decrease, and the inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 3.5 tons to 691.7 tons, a 0.5% increase. Coking coal inventory in Fenxi coal mines decreased by 11.0 tons to 97.2 tons, a 10.2% decrease, and the inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 42.5 tons to 1,047.5 tons, a 4.2% increase [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Futures and Spot - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese futures prices increased. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in various regions also increased to different degrees [6]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, and Ningxia decreased slightly, and the production profit in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia increased. The production cost of ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia and Guangxi increased slightly [6]. Supply - Ferrosilicon production decreased by 0.2 tons to 10.2 tons, a 2.2% decrease, and the operating rate decreased by 1.0 to 27.3%. Ferromanganese production decreased by 0.5 tons to 19.2 tons, a 2.3% decrease, and the operating rate decreased by 4.1 to 32.0% [6]. Demand - Ferrosilicon demand remained unchanged at 1.9 tons, and ferromanganese demand decreased by 0.1 tons to 12.0 tons. The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 2.9 tons to 231.1 tons, a 1.3% increase [6]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises decreased by 0.4 tons to 5.5 tons, a 7.5% decrease, and the inventory of 63 sample ferromanganese enterprises decreased by 1.2 tons to 37.3 tons, a 3.1% decrease [6].

Industrial Sector - Daily average pig iron production increased, indicating a recovery in steel and construction material demand[2] - Cement clinker capacity utilization rate improved, while the operating rate for major chemical products mostly declined[2] - Polyester operating rate increased, and weaving industry continued to rebound[2] Real Estate Sector - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 15.0% year-on-year, with a drop of 11.0 percentage points compared to the previous week[2] - The second-hand housing listing price index fell by 1.85% compared to the previous value[2] Domestic Demand - Retail sales of passenger cars decreased by 16% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed compared to February[2] - Major home appliance retail sales dropped by 26.3% year-on-year, showing improvement from previous values[2] - Domestic flight operations increased by 4.2% year-on-year, while the Baidu migration index grew by 6.1%[2] External Demand - Port cargo throughput decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, but improved by 5.2 percentage points from the previous value[2] - Exports from South Korea increased by 40.4% year-on-year, with an 11.4 percentage point increase compared to February[2] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI rose to 52.4, up by 0.8 percentage points from the previous month[2] Price Trends - The industrial product price index showed a slight increase, with the non-ferrous metal index rising by 2.1%[2] - Agricultural product wholesale price index fell by 1.3% week-on-week, indicating seasonal decline[2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives trend intensities for various commodities, which can be used as a reference for investment: - **Positive Outlook (Trend Intensity: 1 or 2)**: Zinc, Aluminum, Cast Aluminum Alloy, p-Xylene, MEG, LLDPE, PP, Caustic Soda, Urea, Palm Oil, and Sugar [11][23][76][92][97][117][175][189] - **Neutral Outlook (Trend Intensity: 0)**: Gold, Silver, Copper, Lead, Tin, Platinum, Palladium, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Carbonate Lithium, Industrial Silicon, Benzene, Styrene, Soda Ash, Rubber, Synthetic Rubber, Pulp, Glass, Methanol, Short Fiber, Bottle Chip, Offset Printing Paper, Pure Benzene, Soybean Meal, Soybean, Corn, Cotton, Eggs, Peanuts [5][8][14][17][25][37][47][51][121][127][84][89][101][108][111][163][166][171][183][186][193][198][205] - **Negative Outlook (Trend Intensity: -1 or -2)**: Iron Ore, Power Coal, Logs, Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil, and Live Pigs [54][70][72][145][201] Core Views The report analyzes the market trends of various commodities based on their fundamentals, macro - economic factors, and industry news. Geopolitical factors, such as the Iran - related situation, have a significant impact on many commodities, including energy and metals. Supply and demand dynamics, cost factors, and policy changes also play crucial roles in determining the price trends of different commodities. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Geopolitical tensions are easing, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of domestic and international gold showed certain increases, and trading volumes and positions had some changes. ETF holdings decreased slightly [5]. - **Silver**: It fell from the shock platform, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of domestic and international silver increased, and trading volumes and positions also changed [5]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The strengthening of the US dollar restricts price recovery, with a trend intensity of 0. China's refined copper production increased, while waste copper imports decreased. Peru's copper production increased, and Codelco expects cost increases due to the Middle - East conflict [8][10]. - **Zinc**: It is oscillating strongly, with a trend intensity of 1. The prices of domestic and international zinc increased, and inventories decreased [11]. - **Lead**: Lacking driving forces, the price is oscillating, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of domestic and international lead had different trends, and inventories changed [14]. - **Tin**: It is oscillating within a range, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of domestic and international tin increased, and inventories decreased [18]. - **Aluminum**: Supply issues continue to intensify, with a trend intensity of 1. Alumina is oscillating weakly, with a trend intensity of 0. Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum, with a trend intensity of 1 [21][23]. - **Nickel**: The marginal slowdown of inventory accumulation, and the cost of pyrometallurgy is supported by the ore end to move up, with a trend intensity of 0. Stainless steel is in a game between demand and cost, and the steel price is oscillating, with a trend intensity of 0 [38]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil - Related Products** - **Fuel Oil**: It slightly declined at night and remained at a high level in the short - term, with a trend intensity of - 1. Low - sulfur fuel oil is still weak, with a trend intensity of - 1 [145]. - **LPG**: Geopolitical risks still exist, and supply disruptions occur frequently, with a trend intensity of 1 [133]. - **Propylene**: The fundamentals are supportive, and the trend is still strong, with a trend intensity of 1 [133]. - **Chemical Products** - **p - Xylene**: It is in a short - term shock market and is still strong in the medium - term, with a trend intensity of 1. PTA is in a short - term shock market and is still strong in the medium - term, with a trend intensity of 0. MEG has a tight supply and a strong medium - term trend, with a trend intensity of 1 [76]. - **Rubber**: It is in a wide - range oscillation, with a trend intensity of 0 [84]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It has a wide - range oscillation within the day, with a trend intensity of 0 [89]. - **LLDPE**: Supply contraction continues, and there is a structural differentiation, with a trend intensity of 1. PP has an increase in cracking and PDH maintenance in April, and supply support is strong, with a trend intensity of 1 [92]. - **Caustic Soda**: The valuation is at a low level, and it may oscillate strongly later, with a trend intensity of 1 [97]. - **Pulp**: It is oscillating, with a trend intensity of 0 [101]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable, with a trend intensity of 0 [108]. - **Methanol**: It is oscillating strongly, with a trend intensity of 0 [111]. - **Urea**: The price center moves up, with a trend intensity of 1 [117]. - **Benzene and Styrene**: Benzene is oscillating strongly, with a trend intensity of 0. Styrene is oscillating strongly, with a trend intensity of 0 [121][171]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change, with a trend intensity of 0 [127]. - **PVC**: It is in a wide - range oscillation, with a trend intensity of 0 [141]. Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats** - **Palm Oil**: Stimulated by B50 news, it shows a short - term strong performance, with a trend intensity of 1. - **Soybean Oil**: Attention should be paid to the quarterly inventory and planting intention report, with a trend intensity of 0 [175]. - **Grains and Oilseeds** - **Soybean Meal**: It is adjusting and oscillating, waiting for the USDA report, with a trend intensity of 0. - **Soybean**: It is rebounding and oscillating, with a trend intensity of 0 [183]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to policy auctions, with a trend intensity of 0 [186]. - **Sugar**: It is oscillating strongly, with a trend intensity of 1 [189]. - **Cotton**: The domestic market lacks new driving forces, with a trend intensity of 0 [193]. - **Eggs**: Wait for the opportunity to short at high prices in the far - month contracts, with a trend intensity of 0 [198]. - **Live Pigs**: The de - stocking is less than expected, and the price center continues to move down, with a trend intensity of - 1 [201]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the purchase of oil mills, with a trend intensity of 0 [205]. Others - **Iron Ore**: There is an expectation of negotiation easing, and the ore price is falling, with a trend intensity of - 1 [54]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are oscillating repeatedly, with a trend intensity of 0 [58]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: Silicon ferrosilicon has a slightly increased cost expectation, and bullish sentiment is high, with a trend intensity of 0. Manganese silicon is in a wide - range oscillation due to energy information disturbances, with a trend intensity of 0 [63]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke's first - round price increase is expected to be implemented this week, and it is in a wide - range oscillation, with a trend intensity of 0. Coking coal is in a wide - range oscillation, with a trend intensity of 0 [66][67]. - **Power Coal**: The sentiment is weakening, and there is a short - term callback pressure, with a trend intensity of - 1 [70]. - **Logs**: The near - term is strong, and the far - term is weak, and the positive spread is expanding, with a trend intensity of - 1 [72]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The spot loading is under pressure, the 04 contract is oscillating in a narrow range, and the far - month contracts follow geopolitical fluctuations, with a trend intensity of 0 [147].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - For the steel sector, the market has entered the seasonal de - stocking phase, but the future market expectations are pessimistic. The recent sharp rise in crude oil has pushed up costs, providing some support for futures prices. For the iron ore sector, the market is entering the consumption peak season, and iron ore production costs have increased. Short - term port shipments are affected by weather, but are expected to improve. Futures prices face resistance above but may be accumulating strength for a breakthrough [2][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the total output of five major steel products from 247 sample steel mills changed little, inventory decreased, and apparent demand continued to rebound. The market has entered the seasonal de - stocking state, but market expectations for the future are pessimistic [2] - **Cost and Technical Analysis**: The recent sharp rise in crude oil has pushed up costs, providing some support for futures prices. Technically, the futures price is oscillating between the middle and upper tracks of the Bollinger Bands, and after a short - term retracement to the lower support level, it stabilized and rebounded [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly, be cautious about chasing up, and take profits in time when there is a rally. Treat it with an oscillating mindset [2] - **Data Summary**: - Futures and spot prices: The closing prices of the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased slightly compared to the previous day, and the spot prices of rebar decreased slightly compared to last week, while the spot prices of hot - rolled coils increased slightly [2] - Basis and spreads: The basis and spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coils showed different changes, such as the basis of rebar increasing compared to the previous day but decreasing compared to last week [2] - Production and inventory: The output of rebar decreased by 2.69% week - on - week, and the output of hot - rolled coils increased by 1.80% week - on - week. The social and steel mill inventories of the five major varieties decreased, and the inventory of billets in Tangshan also decreased [2] - Apparent demand: The apparent demand for the five major varieties increased by 2.24% week - on - week [2] 3.2 Iron Ore - **Demand and Cost**: The market is gradually entering the consumption peak season. The output of five major steel products from 247 sample steel mills rebounded last week, and the daily average molten iron output increased by 2.90 million tons to 2.312 million tons, with a narrowing increase. The sharp rise in crude oil prices has increased the production cost of iron ore [4] - **Supply and Technical Analysis**: Short - term port shipments are affected by the weather in Australia, which has a certain boost to iron ore futures prices. However, as the weather in the Southern Hemisphere improves, shipments are expected to improve rapidly. The recent arrival volume has increased, and port inventories have decreased. Technically, the futures price oscillates repeatedly after breaking through the upper track of the Bollinger Bands, indicating strong resistance above, but it may also be accumulating strength for a breakthrough [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly and be cautious about chasing up [4] - **Data Summary**: - Futures and spot prices: The settlement prices of the main contract of DCE iron ore and SGX iron ore decreased slightly compared to the previous day and last week, and the prices of iron ore powder at ports showed different changes [5] - Basis and spreads: The basis and spreads of iron ore futures showed different changes, such as the 9 - 1 spread of DCE iron ore futures decreasing compared to the previous day and last week [5] - Overseas shipments: The overseas shipments of Australian iron ore decreased by 39.55% week - on - week, and the shipments from Brazil increased by 47.70% week - on - week [5] - Inventory: The port inventory decreased by 0.57% week - on - week, and the inventory of imported sintered powder ore in 64 sample steel mills increased by 3.10% week - on - week [5] 3.3 Industry News - From March 23 to March 29, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 24.724 billion tons, a decrease of 6.719 billion tons compared to the previous period. The total shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 18.751 billion tons, a decrease of 6.843 billion tons compared to the previous period [7] - From March 23 to March 29, 2026, the arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 26.267 billion tons, an increase of 2.436 billion tons compared to the previous period; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 24.263 billion tons, an increase of 1.547 billion tons compared to the previous period; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 11.981 billion tons, an increase of 1.477 billion tons compared to the previous period [8] - Manganese - silicon plants are gradually reducing production as planned. Most plants will start reducing production by about 30% on April 1st. The total monthly spontaneous emission reduction of national manganese - alloy enterprises is expected to be 221,000 tons. The short - term supply pressure is expected to ease. The operating rate of 187 independent manganese - silicon enterprises in the country is 32.01%, a decrease of 4.08% compared to last week; the daily average output is 27,380 tons per day, a decrease of 650 tons [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, geopolitical risks in the Middle East are rising, with Trump threatening to destroy Iranian energy facilities and Iran planning to charge tolls on the Strait of Hormuz, leading to rising oil prices, a stronger US dollar index, and higher US Treasury yields, which initially dampened global risk appetite but later recovered after Fed Chairman Powell's dovish signals. Domestically, the economy and inflation in January - February 2026 exceeded expectations, but the policy goals and intensity in 2026 are lower than in 2025. The market is mainly focused on Middle East geopolitical risks, and the domestic stock index market is oscillating weakly in the short term [2][3]. - Different asset classes have different trends: stocks are oscillating weakly in the short term; bonds are oscillating; black metals are oscillating weakly; non - ferrous metals are oscillating weakly; energy and chemicals are oscillating strongly; precious metals are rebounding with large oscillations [2]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - **Global situation**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are rising, oil prices are increasing, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields are strengthening, initially suppressing global risk appetite. After Powell's dovish signals, the US Treasury sell - off eased, yields declined, and risk appetite recovered [2]. - **Domestic situation**: In January - February 2026, the economy and inflation exceeded expectations, with strong exports and rising inflation. The policy goals and intensity in 2026 are lower than in 2025. The stock index market is oscillating weakly due to concerns about the Middle East situation [2][3]. - **Asset trends**: Stocks are oscillating weakly and volatile in the short term; bonds are oscillating; black metals are oscillating weakly; non - ferrous metals are oscillating weakly; energy and chemicals are oscillating strongly; precious metals are rebounding with large oscillations. It is recommended to observe cautiously in the short term [2]. Stocks - The domestic stock market rebounded due to the performance of precious metals, industrial metals, and agricultural products. The economy and inflation in January - February 2026 exceeded expectations, but the policy goals and intensity in 2026 are lower than in 2025. The market is focused on Middle East geopolitical risks, and the stock index market is oscillating weakly. It is recommended to observe cautiously in the short term [3]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market rose on Monday night. With rising oil prices, the US dollar index, and US Treasury yields, spot gold was under pressure. It first reached the $4580 mark and then fell back, with a final increase of 0.35% to $4510.97 per ounce. Spot silver also rose and then fell, closing up 0.48% at $70.047 per ounce. Precious metals are rebounding with large oscillations in the short term, and it is recommended to observe cautiously [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel spot and futures markets rebounded slightly on Monday, with low trading volume. Due to the Middle East conflict, inflation concerns increased. The real - world demand improved marginally, with the apparent consumption of five major steel products increasing by 19.49 tons week - on - week, and inventory decline accelerating. Supply decreased slightly, and iron - water production increased slightly. The steel market will follow cost trends in the short term [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore spot and futures markets rebounded slightly on Monday. Rising oil prices supported the iron ore price. Iron - water production increased to over 230 tons, and the proportion of profitable steel mills was around 43%, indicating strong demand. Global iron ore shipments decreased by 6.71 million tons week - on - week, while arrivals increased by 2.113 million tons. The price increase space is limited, and there is a risk of adjustment if energy prices weaken [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot and futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rebounded. Rising energy prices supported the alloy prices. The price of silicon manganese 6517 in the northern market is 6220 - 6320 yuan/ton, and in the southern market is 6300 - 6350 yuan/ton. Rising costs led some factories to reduce production. The inventory of silicon iron enterprises is at a low level, and the production cost is supported. The disk prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to be oscillating strongly [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Copper prices dropped significantly, and downstream enterprises replenished inventory at low prices, leading to a large decrease in social inventory. However, the inventory reduction may slow down after the replenishment. The copper market supply is abundant, and the terminal demand recovery in the peak season is not optimistic, which restricts inventory reduction. The core contradiction lies in the mining end, with a tight but not extremely short supply [8]. - **Aluminum**: An attack on the UAE's global aluminum company may affect electrolytic aluminum production in the short term, supporting aluminum prices. However, the company plans to resume operations soon. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory is high, and the reduction is slow due to high supply [8]. - **Zinc**: The domestic zinc ingot inventory is basically stable, at 21.4 million tons, slightly lower than in 2022. The zinc ore processing fee in the south has rebounded, and the import ore TC has decreased. The domestic smelting capacity is expanding, and the production is at a relatively high level. The demand is not optimistic [9][10]. - **Lead**: The domestic lead ingot inventory increased from 57,600 tons to 60,100 tons, and the LME inventory is stable. The production of primary and secondary lead is increasing seasonally. The demand peak has passed, and the import volume in the first two months increased significantly [10]. - **Nickel**: The Indonesian policy on nickel is uncertain. The RKAB quota in 2026 has decreased significantly, and MHP supply may decline. Nickel prices have support at the bottom but limited upside due to high inventory [11]. - **Tin**: The import of tin ore from Myanmar increased significantly in the first two months, and the import sources are more diverse. The demand is mixed, with semiconductor sales growing but other industries performing poorly. Tin prices rebounded due to increased risk appetite and inventory reduction, but attention should be paid to the volatile market sentiment [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rose 4.53% on Monday. The supply and demand are both strong, the social inventory is low, and the smelting plant inventory is continuously low. With low inventory and supply disruptions, the upward potential is large. It is recommended to buy at low prices or hold long positions cautiously [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon fell 2.01% on Monday. The supply and demand are weak, the capacity is surplus, and the inventory is high. It is priced close to cost and follows the trend of coking coal. It is recommended to operate within a range [13][14]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon rose 3.45% on Monday. The price is at the full - cost range, and the inventory is high. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously or take partial profits [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US threat to Iran led to the US oil price reaching over $100 for the first time after the war. The conflict is unlikely to end soon, and the short - term oil price will continue to be strong [15]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price rebounded with the rising oil price. The supply problem persists, and the seasonal demand will increase, leading to inventory reduction. The short - term price will follow the oil price, and attention should be paid to the Iranian situation [15]. - **PX**: The PX price is strong due to the reduction of Japanese and Korean device operations and increased domestic maintenance plans. However, the price increase may be limited by the increased PTA maintenance plans [16]. - **PTA**: The terminal production and sales are low, but PTA prices rose with the decline of the reforming device. The negative feedback from the downstream restricts the price increase, but the overall trend is still upward [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The overseas supply of ethylene glycol is expected to decrease due to raw material problems. The price is rising, but attention should be paid to the terminal negative feedback [16]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price is oscillating strongly, following the PTA and other varieties. The raw material price is high, but the recovery is restricted by the downstream production reduction [17][18]. - **Methanol**: The domestic and port methanol markets are strong. International supply has tightened due to device shutdowns, and the port inventory is decreasing. The price is rising but with increased volatility. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and downstream negative feedback [18]. - **PP**: The PP market price has increased due to supply reduction and demand increase. The key variable is the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz [19]. - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE market price is adjusting. The supply is decreasing, and the demand is increasing, leading to inventory reduction. The price is expected to be strong, but there is pressure in some areas. Geopolitical factors are important [19]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market is stable. The policy and demand are in a game, and the price will oscillate narrowly in the short term [20]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The CBOT soybean price fell slightly. The US soybean export inspection volume decreased, and attention should be paid to the planting intention report and quarterly grain inventory report. Analysts expect the 2026 sowing area to increase [21]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The arrival of imported soybeans decreased seasonally, and the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal decreased. The basis is high, and the short - term supply is tight, but the future supply is expected to be loose. The supply of rapeseed meal is expected to increase, and it will oscillate with soybean meal [21][22]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The CBOT soybean oil price rose. The US biodiesel policy has been finalized, and the oil price is affected by the rising crude oil price. The domestic soybean oil inventory decreased, and the rapeseed oil inventory increased [22]. - **Palm Oil**: The BMD palm oil price rose. Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy boosted the market. The Malaysian palm oil production increased slightly in March, and the export increased significantly. The domestic palm oil inventory decreased [23]. - **Corn**: The corn price shows regional differentiation. The inventory in the northern ports increased, and the price in the northeast is weak. The downstream demand is affected by alternative sources, and the price may be restricted by the possible rice auction [23]. - **Pigs**: The pig weight is increasing, and farmers are reluctant to sell. The short - term profit is in deficit, and the policy encourages production reduction. The short - term spot price may weaken, while the long - term outlook is improving. There is risk in the short - term futures market [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The real - world and expected scenarios are in a state of game, leading to a differentiated performance in the sector. The cost side disturbances may be repeated, and continuous attention should be paid to geopolitical and iron ore supply - side disturbances. The bullish expectations for the peak season are cautious, and the upward driving force from the real - world side remains to be verified. If the geopolitical conflict persists, price support will be strong; if it eases, prices may face a correction [1][2][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: The ongoing US - Iran conflict and the tight liquidity of some spot varieties support the futures and spot prices of iron ore. However, the overall de - stocking is difficult to achieve due to the loose supply - demand situation, which suppresses the upside valuation of prices. Iron ore is expected to show an oscillatory performance. The short - term trend depends on the spot liquidity of some varieties and the development of the US - Iran conflict, and recent fluctuations may increase [2][9] - **Scrap Steel**: The short - term arrival of scrap steel remains stable overall, and the demand from long - process steelmaking is slowly recovering. The fundamentals continue to be in a weak equilibrium, and it is expected to operate in an oscillatory manner in the short term. Attention should be paid to the actual recovery progress of terminal demand [2][10] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: In the short term, both supply and demand of coke are increasing, and the resumption of iron - making production may be faster. There is still support from the spot cost side. After the first round of spot price increase is implemented, it is expected to remain stable, and the futures price is expected to follow the cost side of coking coal [3][11] - **Coking Coal**: The trading logic of coking coal futures is shifting from energy substitution to warehouse - receipt delivery. With the decline in restocking demand, continuous import pressure, and the approaching delivery of the main contract, the futures price may be under pressure. However, geopolitical disturbances will still support the futures price, and it is expected to operate in a wide - range oscillation [3][12] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Geopolitical disturbances continue, and the expectations of rising manganese ore import costs and electricity costs for high - energy - consuming products are difficult to disprove. However, considering the loose supply - demand situation, high inventory, and difficult cost transfer in the manganese - silicon market, there is still a risk of correction in the medium - to - long - term valuation above the cost level [3][14][15] - **Silicon Iron**: Geopolitical disturbances continue, and the expectation of increasing electricity costs for high - energy - consuming products is difficult to disprove. However, the problem of over - capacity in the silicon - iron industry is serious. The continuous repair of industry profits may accelerate the resumption of production by manufacturers, leading to a more relaxed supply - demand relationship. In the medium - to - long - term, there is a risk of correction when the futures valuation is significantly higher than the comprehensive cost of manufacturers [6][16] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventory of middle and downstream is moderately high. Currently, the supply - demand situation is still in surplus. If production and sales do not improve continuously, high inventory will always suppress prices [6][13] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [6][14] 3.5 Steel - The cost performance is differentiated, and the futures price operates in an oscillatory manner. The spot transaction has improved, the steel mill profitability has increased, and the production is gradually returning to normal. The downstream demand is slowly releasing, and the inventory is decreasing, but the overall inventory level is still moderately high. The impact of the decline in Iranian steel supply is limited in the short term. The futures price still has downward pressure, but cost - side disturbances may be repeated [8] 3.6 Commodity Index - On March 30, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities, the commodity 20 index, and the industrial products index increased by 0.96%, 1.01%, and 1.10% respectively. The steel industry chain index increased by 0.33% on that day, decreased by 1.20% in the past 5 days, increased by 6.47% in the past month, and increased by 2.87% since the beginning of the year [100][102]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The steel market is in a "weak balance" state. Although demand has marginally improved and inventory is gradually being depleted, there is no trend - upward driving force. Attention should be paid to the release rhythm of peak - season demand and the impact of raw material price fluctuations on the cost side [2] - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. The supply side has been affected by Australian weather, and the demand side shows a trend of iron - water production resumption, with the port inventory situation improving marginally [5] - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the future market is influenced by the direction of the black sector and cost - related issues. Manganese silicon has an unfavorable supply - demand pattern, while ferrosilicon has a better fundamental performance [9][10] - For coking coal and coke, the short - term supply - demand structure is relatively loose. The price is not expected to rebound significantly in the short term, but coal prices may be supported in the medium - to - long term, especially from June to October [15][16] - The price of industrial silicon is expected to oscillate. The supply is stable, and the demand is weak, with limited price - driving factors [19] - The price of polysilicon is expected to continue to seek the bottom in oscillation. The factory inventory is high, and the downstream feedback is weak [21] - The glass market is expected to continue a narrow - range oscillation. The supply contraction expectation and cost support provide a certain bottom, but the terminal demand recovery is uncertain [25] - The soda ash market shows a narrow - range consolidation trend. The supply is tightened temporarily, while the demand remains weak [27] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3139 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton (0.480%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 83,113 tons, with no change. The position of the main contract was 976,400 lots, a decrease of 99,718 lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai aggregated prices increased by 10 yuan/ton [1] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3308 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton (0.272%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 546,018 tons, an increase of 6,457 tons. The position of the main contract was 846,800 lots, a decrease of 72,722 lots. The Le Cong aggregated price increased by 20 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price remained unchanged [1] Strategy Views - The steel market is in a "weak balance" state. The real - estate investment repair momentum is insufficient, and the terminal demand is likely to remain weak. The supply and demand have both increased, and the inventory is being depleted smoothly, but there is no trend - upward driving force [2] Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 813.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.12% (+1.00). The position changed by - 15,823 lots to 371,400 lots. The weighted position was 900,700 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 786 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 21.85 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 2.62% [4] Strategy Views - The overseas ore shipment has significantly declined recently. Australian shipments have recovered after being affected by cyclones, and Brazilian shipments have reached a high level. The demand side shows an upward trend in iron - water production, and the port inventory has continued to decline. The iron ore price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On March 30, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM605) closed up 0.12% at 6588 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 6400 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the disk price of 6590 yuan/ton, a premium of 2 yuan/ton to the disk [7] - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF605) closed up 0.90% at 6066 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 6150 yuan/ton, a premium of 84 yuan/ton to the disk [8] Strategy Views - The geopolitical situation affects the market. The black sector may be supported, and coal prices may be beneficial to the alloy cost side. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is better. Future market trends are affected by sector - wide trends and cost - related factors [9][10] Coking Coal and Coke Market Information - On March 30, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) closed down 0.41% at 1214.0 yuan/ton. The spot prices of different types of coking coal had different premiums to the disk [12] - The main contract of coke (J2605) closed up 0.09% at 1753.5 yuan/ton. The spot prices of different types of coke had different premiums or discounts to the disk [12] Strategy Views - The short - term supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke is relatively loose. Although there are some positive factors such as downstream replenishment, there is no strong support for a significant price rebound in the short term. The price of coking coal is expected to be optimistic in the medium - to - long term, especially from June to October [14][15][16] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) closed at 8480 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.68% (- 145). The weighted contract position increased by 7235 lots to 375,855 lots. The spot prices of different grades remained unchanged, with different basis values [18] - The main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) closed at 36,550 yuan/ton, with a change of +2.44% (+870). The weighted contract position increased by 975 lots to 53,506 lots. The spot prices of different types of polysilicon had different changes, with a basis of 2700 yuan/ton [20] Strategy Views - The price of industrial silicon is expected to oscillate. The supply is stable, and the demand is weak, with limited price - driving factors [19] - The price of polysilicon is expected to continue to seek the bottom in oscillation. The factory inventory is high, and the downstream feedback is weak [21] Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The glass main contract closed at 1040 yuan/ton, down 0.10% (- 1). The spot prices in North China and Central China remained unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 814,000 boxes (- 1.09%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced 14,288 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 34,658 lots [24] - The soda ash main contract closed at 1207 yuan/ton, down 1.79% (- 22). The spot price in Shahe decreased by 22 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 190,000 tons (- 1.09%), with different changes in heavy and light soda ash inventories. The top 20 long - position holders increased 22,035 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 16,324 lots [26] Strategy Views - The glass market is expected to continue a narrow - range oscillation. The supply contraction expectation and cost support provide a certain bottom, but the terminal demand recovery is uncertain [25] - The soda ash market shows a narrow - range consolidation trend. The supply is tightened temporarily, while the demand remains weak [27]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is significantly influenced by the tense situation between the US and Iran, with risk aversion increasing, and the prices of various assets showing different trends [1][2][6]. - The supply and demand fundamentals of different commodities vary, with some facing supply disruptions and others having changes in demand [4][35][42]. - The monetary policy of the Federal Reserve is in a wait - and - see state, and the impact of the Iran - US conflict on inflation needs further observation [15][18]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed Chairman Powell said there is a contradiction between the Fed's two goals, and short - term monetary policy is in a wait - and - see stage [11]. - Trump threatened to attack Iran, and the gold price oscillated and rose. The decline in US bond yields reduced the pressure on precious metals. Gold prices continued the oscillatory bottom - building trend [12]. - Investment advice: The short - term trends of gold and silver prices are oscillatory, and the rebound strength is weak [13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Rubio said the US may re - evaluate its relationship with NATO after the Iran war, and Powell said the Fed can wait and see the impact of the war on inflation [14][15]. - Trump pressured Iran to reopen the Strait, market risk aversion weakened, and the US dollar index rebounded in the short term [16]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will maintain a high level in the short term [17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Powell said that energy price shocks are often short - term, and monetary policy usually ignores such shocks, but inflation expectations need to be closely monitored [18]. - Trump hoped to reach an agreement with Iran before April 6, but Iran denied the negotiation. Iran's parliament approved a bill to charge tolls on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The short - term probability of reaching an agreement is low, and US stocks opened higher and closed lower [19][20]. - Investment advice: It is expected that US stocks will operate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait for a clear right - hand signal [21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The State Administration for Market Regulation aims to prevent and control "involution - style" competition in key industries. A - shares oscillated and strengthened, but the signal of the stock index turning from a rebound to a reversal has not appeared [22]. - Investment advice: It is still recommended to hold a low - position to avoid risks [23]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 269.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 261.5 billion yuan on the day [24]. - The market expectations are chaotic, and the capital and institutional behavior dominate the market. Treasury bond futures strengthened, but the cost - performance of chasing the rise is low [24][25]. - Investment advice: The cost - performance of chasing the rise is low [26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Rio Tinto's iron ore port operations in Western Australia have fully recovered, but the iron ore price continued to oscillate weakly. The long - term price decline pressure increased, and the short - term spot is expected to be weakly stable [27][28]. - Investment advice: The iron ore price will continue to oscillate weakly, and the long - term price decline pressure will increase [28]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in Lvliang Lishi market decreased. The overall coking coal supply is slightly reduced, but the national output is still at a high level. The inventory is decreasing, but the market sentiment has weakened recently [29]. - Investment advice: In the short term, the futures price is supported by energy issues, but the overall supply - demand pattern is loose, and attention should be paid to changes in the demand side [29]. 3.2.3 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The transportation department completed 355.8 billion yuan of transportation fixed - asset investment from January to February. Mexico made an anti - dumping preliminary ruling on Chinese hot - rolled steel [30][31]. - The steel price oscillated after opening higher. The supply - demand contradiction of finished products is not prominent, and it is difficult to form a smooth trend. It is expected that the steel price will oscillate slightly stronger in the short term [31]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to adopt an oscillatory thinking and pay attention to the situation in the Middle East and energy prices [32]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The soybean inventory of major oil mills decreased, the soybean meal inventory increased slightly, and the unexecuted contracts decreased. Brazil's soybean harvest progress is behind last year [32][33][34]. - The market expects the US soybean quarterly inventory to reach 2.063 billion bushels. It is recommended to pay attention to the USDA report and the actual arrival of Brazilian soybeans [35]. - Investment advice: The soybean meal futures price will oscillate for the time being, and attention should be paid to the USDA report and the actual arrival of Brazilian soybeans [35]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Ukraine's grain exports decreased by 20.4% year - on - year. The domestic supply side has changes in sales progress, imports, and inventory. The downstream demand has support, and the policy provides bottom - line support [36][37]. - Investment advice: The corn price will maintain a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of selling call options [38]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The Indonesian president said the country will promote the B50 biodiesel project this year, which strengthened the possibility of its implementation and the palm oil price rose [39]. - Investment advice: In the short term, the palm oil price will be strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the far - month contracts [40]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The market supervision department will prevent and control "involution - style" competition in key industries. EVE Energy's subsidiary plans to invest 6 billion yuan to build a 60GWh power energy - storage battery project [40][41]. - The lithium carbonate futures price oscillated strongly, the spot trading weakened, the supply side was tight, and the demand side focused on power demand [41][42]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low prices, but it is difficult for the spot to drive the futures price to break through the previous high before the supply disruption is realized [43]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Platinum) - The prices of platinum and palladium oscillated upward, mainly following the trend of precious metals. The supply side has risks, and the demand side has support [44]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, pay attention to the evolution of the geopolitical situation, and pay attention to the risk - free arbitrage opportunity in the month - spread [46]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead price was in a low - level oscillation, and the domestic social inventory decreased slightly. The downstream consumption will face the off - season, and the lead price may test the support level again [46][47]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying at a low price on the long - short side and wait and see on the arbitrage side [47]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The domestic zinc inventory decreased slightly, the zinc price oscillated upward, and the LME structure changed. The market liquidity has problems, and it is recommended to wait and see [48][49]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, and the previous long positions are recommended to take profits at high prices. Wait and see on the arbitrage side [49]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Glomar and Cobalt Blue plan to build a deep - sea mineral processing plant, and the Canadian government tries to save a copper smelter. Congo (Kinshasa) and China signed a mineral cooperation agreement [50][51][52]. - The copper price is suppressed by the risk of war escalation and liquidity panic. The domestic inventory is decreasing, and the overseas demand is weak [52]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side and pay attention to the domestic - foreign inter - period positive arbitrage strategy [53]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The LME tin price had a discount, and the domestic and overseas inventories changed. The supply side has a tight pattern in the short term, and the demand side is weak [54][55][56]. - Investment advice: The tin price will oscillate widely. It is recommended to pay attention to the supply situation of major producing areas and the change of macro trends [56]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Iran's parliament approved a bill to charge tolls on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The oil price oscillated strongly, and the negotiation between the US and Iran has large differences [57][58]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the situation in the Middle East, and the oil price is expected to oscillate strongly [58]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The domestic LPG port inventory increased slightly. The domestic and foreign LPG prices oscillated, and the market atmosphere was good. The conflict between the US and Iran may intensify [59]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the development of the geopolitical situation and the dynamics between the US and Iran [60]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate increased. The urea futures price rebounded, the inventory decreased, and the demand was supported, but the export policy may restrict the upward space [60][61]. - Investment advice: The near - term urea futures price will continue to oscillate in a range [62]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The pure benzene inventory in East China ports decreased. The prices of pure benzene and styrene were strong. The supply of pure benzene is expected to decrease, and the export of styrene is expected to be realized [63][64]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to go long at low prices in general [65]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The asphalt refinery and social inventories increased. The cost side supported the price, but the terminal demand has not fully started, and the inventory digestion is slow [66]. - Investment advice: The geopolitical risk continues, and the downside support is strong [67]. 3.2.18 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Hapag - Lloyd's 2025 revenue was about $21.1 billion, and it issued a cautious warning for 2026. The Middle East geopolitical situation has an impact on the container freight rate, with the far - month contracts rising and the near - month contracts oscillating weakly [68][69]. - Investment advice: The near - month contracts return to the spot logic, and the far - month contracts are easy to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended to maintain an oscillatory thinking and pay attention to the US - Iran situation [70].

Group 1 - The World Data Organization (WDO) was established on March 30 in Beijing, aiming to bridge the data gap, unlock data value, and promote the digital economy [3] - The State Administration for Market Regulation issued a notice to combat "involution" competition in key industries such as platform economy, photovoltaic, lithium batteries, and new energy vehicles [3] - The Ministry of Commerce announced measures to boost consumption, including optimizing the trade-in policy for consumer goods and promoting the efficient circulation of second-hand cars [4] Group 2 - Hangzhou introduced a new housing provident fund policy, increasing the maximum loan amount for ordinary families to 1.8 million yuan, with potential increases for specific groups [4] - An international team, including researchers from Sweden's Karolinska Institute, developed a new method for generating CAR-T cells for cancer immunotherapy, with results published in the journal Nature [5] - U.S. President Trump indicated serious negotiations with Iran regarding military actions, while also threatening to destroy Iranian infrastructure if agreements are not reached [6] Group 3 - The Iranian parliament approved a bill to charge fees for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, which includes prohibiting vessels from the U.S. and Israel [9] - The U.S. Secretary of State stated that Iran must not be allowed to permanently control the Strait of Hormuz or establish a fee system [8] - U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones up 0.11% and the Nasdaq down 0.73%, while oil prices reached their highest level since July 2022 at $102.88 per barrel [7] Group 4 - Midea Group plans to repurchase shares worth between 6.5 billion and 13 billion yuan, with a projected net profit growth of 14.03% for 2025 [9] - SF Holding announced a plan to use up to 38 billion yuan for financial products and adjusted its share repurchase amount to between 3 billion and 6 billion yuan [9] - Zhongji Xuchuang expects a net profit growth of 108.78% for 2025 and plans to distribute 10 yuan per 10 shares [10]

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