锂盐

Search documents
碳酸锂:产量已超枧下窝停产前水平,偏弱判断
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-14 06:41
二 〇 二 四 年 度 2025 年 9 月 14 日 碳酸锂:产量已超枧下窝停产前水平,偏弱判 报告导读: 本周价格走势:价格先抑后扬 受枧下窝复工预期影响,碳酸锂期货价格先抑后扬。2511 合约收于 71160 元/吨,周环比下跌 3100 元/吨,2601 合约收于 71260 元/吨,周环比下跌 3060 元/吨,现货周环比下跌 2300 元/吨为 72450 元/ 吨。SMM 期现基差(2511 合约)上涨 800 元/吨至+1290 元/吨,富宝贸易商升贴水报价-270 元/吨,周 环比上涨 40 元/吨。2511-2601 合约价差-100 元/吨,环比下跌 40 元/吨。 供需基本面:产量已超枧下窝停产前水平 原料:发运量减少,到港增加。Hedland 港口于 9 月 12 日启动年度维护疏浚工厂,预计持续 3-4 周 时间。上周澳矿发运量数量创新高 15.7-20.7 万吨水平,本周发运为 0 吨。9 月所有国家澳矿到货已知 38.8 万吨,到中国 36.4 万吨,环比增加约 10 万吨。 供应:周度产量 19963 吨,周环比增长 544 吨,产量已经恢复至枧下窝停产前的水平,并高于 7 ...
三季度碳酸锂均价环比涨近12% 锂盐企业盈利有望阶段性触底回升
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-12 12:50
Group 1 - The lithium carbonate market has experienced price fluctuations, with domestic spot prices falling to around 70,000 yuan per ton due to the resumption of production at the Jiangxiawo lithium mine and a decline in lithium carbonate futures prices [1] - In August, the Jiangxiawo lithium mine was temporarily shut down, leading to a significant decrease in lithium mica and its derived lithium carbonate production. However, the production of lithium carbonate from spodumene increased substantially, filling the supply gap [3] - Domestic lithium carbonate production reached 85,000 tons in August, a year-on-year increase of 39% and a month-on-month increase of 5%, driven by improved production enthusiasm from spodumene lithium extraction companies [3] Group 2 - Following the confirmation of the Jiangxiawo mine's shutdown on August 11, lithium carbonate futures contracts surged, leading to a significant increase in related stocks. Conversely, the announcement of the mine's resumption on September 10 caused a sharp decline in futures and stock prices, indicating a return to a "supply surplus" market condition [4] - Despite the short-term decline in lithium prices, the average price of lithium carbonate in the third quarter is significantly higher than in the second quarter, with an average price of 72,947.92 yuan per ton compared to 65,237.17 yuan per ton in the second quarter, reflecting an 11.82% increase [4] - Companies with stable production costs, such as salt lake enterprises, are expected to see a rebound in profitability in the third quarter due to rising lithium carbonate prices, although the impact on profitability may be limited due to their cost advantages [5] Group 3 - Spodumene lithium extraction companies, with production costs around 70,000 yuan per ton, are likely to achieve a turnaround in profitability for their lithium salt business in the third quarter, as the average price of lithium carbonate rises to 73,000 yuan per ton [6] - Some raw material self-sufficient spodumene lithium extraction companies still face significant operational pressure due to relatively low lithium prices, and the upcoming low-cost production capacity may further increase market supply pressure [6] - Salt Lake companies are planning to start trial production of a 40,000-ton-per-year lithium salt project by the end of September, which, combined with the potential resumption of the Jiangxiawo mine, raises questions about whether spot prices can maintain above 70,000 yuan per ton [6]
三季度碳酸锂环比上涨12%,锂业公司盈利阶段性触底
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-09-11 11:48
Core Insights - The lithium carbonate spot price has dropped to around 70,000 yuan/ton due to the resumption of production at the Jiangxiawo lithium mine by CATL and a decline in lithium carbonate futures [1][8] - Despite a decrease in lithium mica and its derived lithium carbonate production in August, overall domestic lithium carbonate production continued to grow, indicating significant supply elasticity in the market [2][6] - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in the third quarter is 72,947.92 yuan/ton, reflecting a nearly 12% increase compared to the second quarter [2][10] Supply and Production - In August, lithium mica production decreased significantly, with a reported 13,980 tons LCE produced, down 7,120 tons from the previous month [5] - The overall lithium carbonate production in August reached 85,000 tons, a 39% increase year-on-year and a 5% increase month-on-month [7] - The supply-demand imbalance persists, with the market remaining oversupplied despite fluctuations in production due to external factors [7][12] Price Fluctuations - The lithium carbonate market experienced two price increases in the third quarter, driven by speculation and supply disruptions [4] - Following the announcement of the Jiangxiawo mine's resumption, the futures market and related lithium stocks saw significant declines, indicating a return to a supply-overhang pricing environment [8][15] - The average price of lithium hydroxide also increased compared to the second quarter, contributing to improved profitability for certain lithium salt companies [10][12] Profitability and Market Dynamics - Companies that did not experience production cuts are expected to see a temporary bottoming out of profits in the third quarter [3] - Salt lake enterprises with stable production costs are likely to see a recovery in profit margins, although the impact of rising lithium prices may be limited due to their cost advantages [11][12] - Companies like Zhongkuang Resources are projected to potentially turn losses into profits in the third quarter due to the increase in lithium carbonate prices [13] Future Outlook - New low-cost production capacity is expected to come online soon, which may further increase supply pressure in the market [14] - The potential for the Jiangxiawo lithium mine to resume production raises uncertainty about whether the spot price of lithium carbonate can maintain above 70,000 yuan/ton [15]
盐湖股份:公司目前暂无投资有色金属行业的规划
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-09-04 04:26
Group 1 - The company, Salt Lake Co., Ltd. (000792.SZ), is currently focused on its core business of potassium and lithium and has no plans to invest in the non-ferrous metal industry [2] - There was an inquiry from investors regarding the possibility of the company investing in copper mining enterprises [2] - The company reaffirmed its commitment to its main business areas without diversifying into other metal sectors at this time [2]
大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250904
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-09-04 03:44
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is characterized by a mismatch between supply and demand, with strong supply and weak demand, making it difficult to change the downward trend. The 2511 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 70,320 - 73,440 [13][16]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production, a decline in lithium carbonate imports from Chile, and a decrease in lithium spodumene imports. Negative factors include high - level supply from ore and salt lake sources with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery sector to take delivery [14][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply - side**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 19,030 tons, a 0.56% decrease from the previous week, but higher than the historical average [8]. - **Demand - side**: The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 94,493 tons, a 0.91% increase from the previous week, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 17,832 tons, a 1.22% increase from the previous week [8]. - **Cost - side**: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 75,391 yuan/ton, a 1.23% daily decrease, resulting in a loss of 592 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica was 79,330 yuan/ton, a 1.00% daily decrease, resulting in a loss of 6,571 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end was close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end was 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - **Comprehensive evaluation**: The fundamentals are neutral; the basis on September 3rd showed that the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 75,900 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 4,020 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is positive. The overall inventory was 141,136 tons, a 0.28% decrease from the previous week, higher than the historical average, and the inventory situation is neutral. The disk shows that MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below MA20, which is neutral. The net short position of the main contract increased, which is negative [9][12][13]. 3.2 Market Overview - **Price changes**: The prices of most lithium - related products showed a downward trend. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 2.06% to 75,900 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 2.13% to 73,600 yuan/ton [19]. - **Supply - side data**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 66.41%, unchanged from the previous week. The monthly production of lithium carbonate in August was 85,240 tons, a 4.55% increase from the previous month. The monthly import of lithium concentrate was 576,138 tons, a 34.73% increase from the previous month [22]. - **Demand - side data**: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate was 316,400 tons, an 8.84% increase from the previous month. The monthly production of ternary materials was 73,440 tons, a 6.99% increase from the previous month. The monthly power battery loading volume was 55,900 GWh, a 3.95% decrease from the previous month [22]. 3.3 Supply - Related Content - **Lithium ore**: The price of lithium ore showed a downward trend. The self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore fluctuated. The inventory of lithium ore held by port traders and for sale also showed certain changes over time [28]. - **Lithium carbonate**: The weekly operating rate and production of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycling) showed different trends. The monthly production and import of lithium carbonate also changed. The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate showed a deficit in some months [33][39]. - **Lithium hydroxide**: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly production, and export volume of lithium hydroxide changed over time. The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide also showed different situations in different months [41][48]. 3.4 Cost - profit of Lithium Compounds - The cost and profit of different lithium compounds (such as lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, recycled lithium carbonate, etc.) showed different trends over time. For example, the production of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate was in a loss state [51]. 3.5 Inventory - The inventory of lithium carbonate (including smelter inventory, downstream inventory, and other inventory) showed different trends. The overall inventory was 141,136 tons, a 0.28% decrease from the previous week, but higher than the historical average [9]. 3.6 Demand - Related Content - **Lithium battery**: The price, production, loading volume, and export volume of lithium batteries showed different trends. For example, the monthly production of power battery cells and the monthly loading volume of power batteries changed over time [62]. - **Ternary precursor**: The price, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors showed different situations. The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors was positive in some months and negative in others [67][70]. - **Ternary materials**: The price, production, cost - profit, and inventory of ternary materials showed different trends. The cost - profit of ternary materials fluctuated over time [73]. - **Lithium iron phosphate/phosphate**: The price, production, cost - profit, and operating rate of lithium iron phosphate and phosphate showed different trends. The production and export volume of lithium iron phosphate changed over time [77][80]. - **New energy vehicles**: The production, sales, export volume, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed different trends. The production and sales of new energy vehicles decreased slightly in some periods [85].
市场降温 黑色系期货多品种价格回落
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-09-03 23:43
Group 1 - The commodity market has cooled down significantly after a surge, with various products experiencing substantial corrections, indicating a shift from emotional speculation back to fundamentals [1][4] - On September 3, Tangshan's average profit margin for steel mills turned negative for the first time in six months, with an average loss of 21 yuan/ton, as rebar prices fell from 3400 yuan/ton to 3100 yuan/ton [1][2] - The decline in lithium carbonate prices is attributed to insufficient destocking, with prices dropping from a peak of 90,000 yuan/ton to 72,000 yuan/ton within two weeks [4][5] Group 2 - The black series futures have seen a rapid price decline due to increasing supply and weak demand, with rebar prices dropping over 300 yuan/ton from their July 30 high of 3439 yuan/ton [2][3] - The average cost of steel billets in Tangshan increased by 8 yuan/ton week-on-week, while the current ex-factory price is 2950 yuan/ton, leading to a loss for steel mills [2][3] - The lithium carbonate production in August reached a record high of over 85,000 tons, marking a 5% month-on-month increase and a 39% year-on-year increase, driven mainly by spodumene [4][5] Group 3 - The market sentiment has deteriorated, with expectations for destocking during the "golden September and silver October" period not meeting prior expectations, leading to short-term price corrections [5] - The overall supply capacity in the lithium industry has improved, although some flexible production lines have shifted to lithium carbonate production, contributing to increased output [4][5] - Future market dynamics may find a balance between policy expectations and fundamental constraints, with potential short-term recovery in market sentiment [5]
期现结合编织产业链“安全网”
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-09-02 16:14
Core Insights - The article discusses how Shanghai Lishimo New Materials Co., Ltd. has adapted to market volatility in the lithium salt industry by leveraging financial tools and partnerships to manage risks effectively [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The price of lithium carbonate has experienced significant fluctuations, dropping from 90,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to below 60,000 yuan/ton in mid-June, before rebounding to over 75,000 yuan/ton [1] - The volatility of over 50% in lithium prices has created challenges for the entire lithium salt industry, leading to the exit of smaller traders due to financial constraints [1] Group 2: Strategic Adaptation - Shanghai Lishimo has shifted its trading model from a traditional "buy cost + profit" approach to a more market-oriented "spot-futures combination" model following the launch of lithium carbonate futures in 2023 [2] - The company has engaged Citic Futures to explore a futures asset management model, allowing for lower-cost risk hedging and compliance with new asset management regulations [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The integration of spot and futures markets is expected to enhance risk management capabilities, with the company aiming to expand its services to more upstream and downstream clients in the lithium carbonate supply chain [2][3] - The focus on risk control rather than immediate profit is emphasized, suggesting that companies should engage in limited speculative activities while adhering to established operational rules for sustainable growth [3]
盐湖股份(000792):钾肥景气度上行 4万吨锂盐项目稳步推进
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-02 00:41
Group 1: Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 6.78 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.3% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.52 billion yuan, an increase of 13.7% year-on-year [1] - The non-recurring net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.51 billion yuan, up 16.2% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.66 billion yuan, down 18.9% year-on-year but up 17.4% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q2 was 1.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19.8% [1] Group 2: Potash Market Dynamics - Global potash supply is tightening due to production cuts from major overseas players, with a reduction of at least 1.6 million tons expected from Russia and Belarus [2] - Seasonal demand growth in major agricultural regions like Southeast Asia and Latin America is anticipated to further tighten the potash supply-demand relationship, potentially keeping prices high [2] - The company's potash product revenue for the first half of the year totaled 5.37 billion yuan, with approximately 4.61 billion yuan from potassium chloride [2] - The company produced 1.9898 million tons of potassium chloride and sold 1.7779 million tons, with an average selling price of approximately 2,592 yuan per ton [2] - The gross margin for potash products was 59.95%, an increase of 6.4 percentage points year-on-year [2] Group 3: Lithium Production and Pricing - The company produced 20,000 tons of lithium carbonate and sold 20,600 tons in the first half of 2025 [3] - Lithium product revenue was 1.24 billion yuan, with operating costs of 620 million yuan, resulting in a gross margin of 49.96%, down 10.2 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The average selling price for lithium products was 60,000 yuan per ton, with a selling cost of 30,000 yuan per ton [3] Group 4: Project Development and Global Expansion - The company's 40,000 tons/year lithium salt integrated project has completed mid-term acceptance and is expected to start trial production by the end of September [4] - Upon production, the company's lithium carbonate annual capacity will increase from 40,000 tons to 80,000 tons, solidifying its leading position in domestic brine lithium extraction [4] - The company is leveraging the advantages of the China Minmetals central enterprise platform to accelerate global resource and market layout [4] - The overseas resource project in the Republic of Congo has resumed preparations for work, enhancing the company's overseas resource reserves [4] Group 5: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company possesses high-quality lithium resources in China and is expanding its 40,000 tons lithium salt project, indicating significant future growth potential [5] - Projected net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 are 5.9 billion yuan, 7.08 billion yuan, and 7.46 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 26.5%, 20.0%, and 5.4% respectively [5] - Corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 18, 15, and 14 times for the respective years [5]
盐湖股份上半年实现净利润25.15亿元 4万吨/年锂盐项目即将投料试车
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang· 2025-08-31 09:46
Core Insights - Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 6.781 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.30%, while net profit reached 2.515 billion yuan, an increase of 13.69% [1] - The company's performance growth is attributed to key project advancements, scale production release, and competitive advantages from high-quality salt lake resources [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The company achieved a net profit of 2.515 billion yuan, reflecting a 13.69% increase year-on-year, and a non-recurring net profit of 2.509 billion yuan, up 16.24% [1] - The decline in revenue is primarily due to market conditions, while profit growth indicates effective cost management and operational efficiency [1] Business Segments - The core segments of potassium chloride and lithium carbonate significantly supported the company's performance [2] - Salt Lake Industries has a production capacity of 5 million tons per year for potassium fertilizer, ranking fourth globally, and an annual lithium carbonate production capacity of 40,000 tons, leading in brine lithium extraction capacity in China [2] Market Dynamics - Global potassium fertilizer supply tightened due to production halts by major overseas companies, leading to rising potassium prices [2] - The company produced 1.9898 million tons of potassium chloride and sold 1.7779 million tons in the first half of the year [2] Lithium Production and Expansion - The company produced 20,000 tons of lithium carbonate and sold 20,600 tons in the first half of the year [2] - Significant progress was made in new lithium capacity projects, with a 40,000 tons per year lithium salt project reaching 71% completion [2] Technological Advancements - The company has increased its focus on technology research and development, enhancing resource utilization and industry upgrades [3] - Innovations include optimized lithium extraction processes and breakthroughs in solar-driven lithium extraction technology, achieving a lithium purity of 99.9% [3] Shareholder Support - The controlling shareholder, China Minmetals Corporation, has increased its stake in the company, demonstrating confidence in its long-term value [4] - As of August 6, 2025, China Minmetals had acquired 248 million shares, reaching the lower limit of its planned increase [4] Strategic Outlook - The company aims to leverage its relationship with China Minmetals to enhance its resource integration capabilities and compliance management [5] - Plans include expanding resource acquisition in domestic and international markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, Africa, and South America [4][5]
天味食品拟赴港二次上市,四川“A+H”企业或添一丨周观川股
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-31 07:04
Market Overview - The A-share market showed a strong performance from August 25 to August 29, with major indices experiencing fluctuations and upward trends, particularly the Shanghai Composite Index which closed at 3857.93 points, marking a monthly increase of 7.97%, the highest in 10 years [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 4.36% to 12696.15 points, while the ChiNext Index increased by 7.74% to 2890.13 points, indicating a diverse driving force in the market with stability in heavyweight stocks and strong performance in technology sectors [2] Sichuan Sector Performance - The Sichuan sector index closed at 5927.21 points with a weekly decline of 0.87%, marking the first drop after nine consecutive weeks of gains, although it achieved a seven-week increase on a monthly basis [3] - New Yi Sheng saw a monthly increase exceeding 88%, highlighting significant growth within the sector [3] Company Developments - Tianwei Foods is planning a secondary listing in Hong Kong to enhance its international strategy and optimize its capital structure, having previously attempted a global depositary receipt (GDR) issuance in Switzerland which was terminated [3] - Chuaneng Power is accelerating the trial production of its lithium salt project, which aims for an annual output of 30,000 tons of lithium salt, potentially generating an annual output value of 2.4 billion yuan and creating over a thousand local jobs [3] - Tangyuan Electric is progressing with its private placement to raise up to 864 million yuan for the development of intelligent operation and maintenance robots for rail transit [3] Industry Trends - The AI sector is witnessing significant developments, with major companies like Alibaba investing heavily in AI infrastructure and products, indicating a strong market interest in AI technologies [4] - The upcoming implementation of regulations on AI-generated content is expected to shape the industry landscape starting September 1, 2025 [4] Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the A-share market may continue a slow bull trend in September, with a focus on growth sectors, particularly technology and consumer industries [4][5] - Recommendations include strategic investments in electronics, military, new consumption, and food sectors, which are expected to benefit from favorable policies and improving fundamentals [5]