Core Viewpoint - Tin prices have been experiencing narrow fluctuations since May, with a decrease in volatility, as major economies engage in tariff negotiations with the U.S., leading to a more relaxed trade dispute atmosphere [2] Supply Side Recovery Expectations - There is an expectation of supply recovery in tin production by 2025, primarily from Myanmar's Wa State, Indonesia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) [3] - Myanmar's Wa State, which accounted for approximately 11% of global tin production, has resumed operations after a 21-month shutdown, with production expected to scale up by Q3 2024 [3] - Indonesia, the world's largest refined tin exporter, saw a significant recovery in exports, with March and April 2024 exports increasing by 50% and 58% year-on-year, respectively [3] - The DRC's Bijie tin mine, which contributes about 6% to global tin production, has resumed operations after a temporary shutdown due to armed conflict, although future disruptions remain a concern [4] Supply Side Tightness - The supply side remains tight, primarily due to the prolonged shutdown in Wa State, leading to a 48% year-on-year decline in tin ore imports to China from January to April 2024 [5] - Processing fees have dropped to historical lows, indicating a raw material shortage, with the latest processing fee reported at 12,700 yuan per ton [5] - China's tin production in March 2025 was 15,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.06%, with April production further declining by 8.13% [5] Demand Stability - Demand for tin remains robust, particularly driven by the semiconductor industry and the growth of photovoltaic installations, with a 19% year-on-year increase in solar cell production from January to April 2024 [6] - Traditional tin demand from sectors like tinplate and tin chemicals remains stable, primarily maintaining existing demand levels [6] - The latest social inventory of tin in China stands at 9,959 tons, with a reduction in inventory following a price drop in early April [7] Market Outlook - The tin market shows strong supply-side realities, with ongoing tightness in tin ore supply and a strong willingness among primary smelters to reduce production due to low processing fees [8] - The recovery of supply from Wa State, along with improved exports from Indonesia and the DRC, stabilizes global tin supply [8] - Demand is expected to remain strong, particularly from AI hardware and new energy sectors, although uncertainties exist due to potential global economic slowdowns stemming from trade conflicts [9] - Despite supply recovery pressures, the strong demand and tight supply conditions are likely to support tin prices in the medium term [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the tin market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with both supply and demand showing weakness, leading to a sideways price movement for tin [1][2] - The main contract for tin closed at 2,646,900 yuan per ton, reflecting a slight increase of 0.09% [1] - The supply situation is tight due to the phased resumption of the Bisie tin mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, with the first batch of tin concentrate expected to enter the smelting stage only in June [1] Group 2 - The operating rate of tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi, two key tin-producing provinces, remains low at 56.44% [1] - In Yunnan, the processing fee for 40% grade tin concentrate is at a historically low level, severely squeezing the profit margins of primary ore smelting enterprises [1] - The weekly operating rate of smelting plants in Yunnan has dropped to 65.48%, significantly lower than the previous week due to raw material shortages and cost pressures [1] Group 3 - Demand from traditional sectors such as electronics and home appliances is under pressure due to high tin prices and US-China trade tensions, leading to a "high premium, low transaction" pattern in the spot market [2] - The renewable energy sector, particularly photovoltaic welding strips and new energy vehicles, continues to see high growth, but short-term increases are insufficient to offset the weakness in traditional consumption [2] - The overall supply-demand fundamentals lack strong drivers, suggesting that tin prices may continue to fluctuate in the short term [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that tin prices are maintaining a range-bound operation due to a tight supply in the short term and a lack of significant demand boost from downstream industries [1] - The main contract for tin closed at 265,770 yuan/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 0.92% [1] - The Congo (DRC) has become China's largest source of imported tin concentrate, surpassing Myanmar, with the Bisie tin mine resuming operations after a temporary halt due to armed conflict [1] Group 2 - The recovery of the Bisie tin mine is progressing well, with the first batch of tin concentrate expected to enter the smelting phase by June 2025 [2] - The operating rates of tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi remain low due to raw material supply shortages, with the import volume from Myanmar falling below the warning line for several months [1] - The overall order situation from downstream customers is limited, as the willingness to restock in the electronics and home appliance sectors is low despite relatively high tin prices [1]

Group 1 - During the May Day holiday, the international metal market showed a low-to-high trend, with overall fluctuations being minor compared to the pre-holiday closing prices. Specifically, the price of tin on the London market decreased by 1.48% compared to the pre-holiday period [1] - The domestic tin market was inactive during the May Day holiday, with market participants adopting a wait-and-see attitude. The downstream processing enterprises had a weaker purchasing intention before the holiday, primarily focusing on essential purchases [2] - In April, China's refined tin production saw a month-on-month decrease of 0.52% and a year-on-year decline of 8.13%, attributed to a tightening supply chain of tin concentrate and scrap tin, which imposed rigid constraints on production capacity [1] Group 2 - The supply pressure of tin mines in May remains challenging, with global inventories continuing to decrease, providing support for tin prices. However, the resumption of tin mining in Myanmar is expected to increase supply, potentially limiting the upward price movement [1] - Some tin processing enterprises have gradually resumed production after May 3, starting to fulfill post-holiday orders. These enterprises had previously stocked up on sufficient inventory at lower prices, leading to a cautious approach towards replenishing stock based on market conditions and order situations [2] - The current market commentary suggests that while raw material supply is tight, consumption expectations have been revised downwards, indicating that the corrected supply-demand balance is not significantly imbalanced, and prices may continue to fluctuate widely [2]